Monday, July 21, 2014

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LONG MCK



ENTRY: OVER $191.50
STOP: USE YOUR OWN DETAILED TRADING PLAN
TARGET: AN "EQUAL MOVE" GIVES YOU $207

SHORT AGCO



ENTRY: UNDER LAST WEEK'S LOW
STOP: USE YOUR OWN DETAILED TRADING PLAN
TARGET: "EQUAL MOVE" TO $50



STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS, OR EVEN WORSE HAVE NO TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE, YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED.

(Video) Retail Money Market Funds Signal Reversal for the Stock Market
Steve Hochberg on the state of retail money market funds vs. stock market capitalization, filmed at the 2014 Las Vegas Money Show
By Elliott Wave International
Steve Hochberg on the state of retail money market funds vs. stock market capitalization, filmed at the 2014 Las Vegas Money Show.Read more.

What deep thinkers we men are... I mowed the lawn today, and after doing so I sat down and had a cold beer. The day was really quite beautiful, and the drink facilitated some deep thinking.

I thought about an age old question: Is giving birth more painful than getting kicked in the nuts? Women always maintain that giving birth is way more painful than a guy getting kicked in the nuts.


Well, after another beer, and some heavy deductive thinking, I arrived at the answer to that question. Getting kicked in the nuts is clearly more painful than having a baby; and here is the reason for my conclusion. A year or so after giving birth, a woman will often say, "It might be nice to have another child." On the other hand, you never hear a guy say, "You know, I think I would like another kick in the nuts." I rest my case.
Time for another beer.

WEEKLY WRAP UP



The $NYSI remains on a solid SELL signal, showing no signs of wanting to turn back up, HOWEVER, the SPY has gone basically sideways during this sell signal, which eventually led to the May rally. The market, SHOULD, go DOWN with the poor breath, like it did at the first question mark in January-February, so when it DOESN'T, I guess you have to respect that. You notice I said, "YOU", have to respect that, "I", DON'T, respect it, I think it's a bunch of crap, wad ever.


The SPY is still in a bollinger squeeze, in the red box, and it's above the signal line, just like Thursday, however, the Woodies CCI, in the green box, has gone red, green, red, green, red, green, over the last six days, just an absolute piece of doggie poop. We are going to get a big move, like the "Squeeze" is saying, the direction is uncertain. Adding to this idea is the narrow separation of the "Swing" highs and lows, which are the horizontal green and orange lines, the last couple of times they were this tight we had the January dump, and then the May rally.
Personally, until the $NYSI starts showing some strength, I won't be to excited about the upside.


The big winner's in my 73 markets this week were TUR, EPI and EPW, some times called "The Tee's".............. all up over 3%. None of our major markets are on the list, some of our sectors were though, like IYT, XLK, IYR, and XLF. Our best major was the NasDOGS, QQQ up .89% on the week, then bonds, TLT up .83%, which is just fricking great, hahahahaha, "Inwestor's" were buying up the risky assets, while fleeing to the safety of bonds at the same time, sigh. DIA came in at .82%, SPY .56%, with the little guys in the next section.


Russia was the big loser this week, RSX down 5.56%, as I guess investor's were blaming Putin for the bombing. Our worst major was on the list, IWM down .76%, the precious metals were not so precious, GLD and SLV both down over 2%. Down at the bottom of the list was JNK, down .60%, I only bring this up because it seems strange that it was down with interest rates ALSO going down, I mean, are investors actually going to start treating junk bonds like, well................ JUNK, again????


The number of markets with a death cross, 20 ma below 50 ma, increased to 21 this week, not shown is the UNG.

The big winners in the S and P this week were TWX and DISCA, as there is a huge battle going on to see who can raise cable prices the fastest, third was INTC, excuse me a second.......hahahahahahahaha....... sigh, the DCF model over at Guru Focus says it's 31%, OVER, valued, wad ever, the big banks were higher off of earnings, C and JPM.  I thought maybe the worst performer in the first half, CLF, had some ACTUAL funnymental reasons for coming in fourth at 7.54%, but it's just the activist funds fighting over the carcass as they are all trying to get their people on the board. 


The loser's list is pretty interesting, all down over 4% and all very big companies, SNDK, YUM, YHOO and MAT were actually earnings related, KORS was a down grade ahead of earnings, FOXA, LO and RAI were all M and A rumors and stuff like that.
Out of the S and P 500 and my 73 markets above, only three stocks, AIV, TWX, and MSFT, had an RSI 14 above 80, IE, over bought, and, NONE, were under 20.
It's just me, but MSFT sure looks "funny" being one of three stocks that are over bought, it's ok on a P/E basis, but it's got no growth as the PEG is 2.53, and it's P/S at 4.43 is HUGE compared to what it used to me, I guess investor's must think it's some how re-invented itself.

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