Saturday, January 14, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 1/13/2017



The $NYAD's at the top look great, they are leading the markets higher, which is what we want to see.  The $NAAD's are a different story, they look better than last week but remain inside a triangle and have not gotten over the highs made the week before, which would be no big deal if they had not made ATH's on four of the five days this week. One good thing is they closed out the week with 119 52 week highs, which was the high number for the week. 




These are the Fibonacci extension numbers for the RSP, SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQ. The IWM has by FAR the greatest possibility of extension from current prices, it calc's out to $155. In contrast the new ATH's babies down at the bottom, the QQQ, have the LEAST amount of extension, only a couple of points higher from where it is now. The Q's have the best looking MACD, which has crossed over to the upside, the others all have some humongous divergences working, which, in the old days, I might say that's a little worrisome, but I have no doubt Ms. Yelling and her cohorts will take care of it, no problemo ..........
The Q's are also unique in that they are the only ones NOT in a bollinger band Squeeze, the red boxes on the other four represent the six to nine day squeezes they are currently involved in, the IWM chart below shows the "Squeeze":


The "RSqueeze" means we can expect a BIG move when we break out of the boxes, the Squeeze will signal a direction when the break comes and not before, one way or Da Udder.

DISCLAIMER: the extension calc's don't mean a damn thing, they may not even go higher, that's just what the program says are the "POSSIBILITIES" ............


Of 12 major markets only 3 are not on buy, 20 sma above 50, TLT, GLD and VWO. VWO is one up day away from a new buy signal. In some what of an inigma all three of those markets are on "TURTLE" buys, all of them made new 20 day highs within the last two days, the only other market on a Turtle is $CRB.

In the all important Bull Percent indexes only one is NOT on a buy signal, $BPDISC, the consumer discretionary sector, quite a surprise to me as I assummed the consumer staples would be the first sector to fall to the stronger dollar. Two sectors not looking good are the $BPINDY, the industrials, and $BPENER, energy, the 20 sma has curled down on the industrials and price is in danger of falling through the 50 sma, same with energy. Both of them though have a positive up sloping 50 sma, which is not the case with the staples, $BPSTAP, they have a negative sloping 50. 


Every SP sector is on buy, EVERY ONE ........... oops, excuse me, down in the lower right hand corner the XRT just triggered a Turtle sell signal on Friday, I guess the American consumer doesn't share the same love of Trump that Wall Street does.
There are only two Turtle buys, XLK and XLY. XLF made a new 20 day high but did not close there, it gapped up on the BAC, JPM and WFC "FAKE" earnings news, and the Da Boyz did what they do best, they punished the Johnny come latelies that bought the new highs. They may continue to sell off next week as Da Boyz try and pick up as much of their stocks as they can at lower prices.


TUR went from worst to first as the big winner in my 80 markets, I mean, even a turkey is bound to bounce sooner or later. UNG in the number two spot is in keeping with the turkey's bouncing as they were like the worst last week. None of our majors made the front page, you have to go to page two to see our major markets, those award winning NasDOGS were the big winners, AGAIN, this week, QQQ up .84% LESS than last week, up 1.01%, you have to go to the third page for the runner up IWM, up .41% on the week, then you have to go to the next list for the others.


Here's the 18 markets making new 20 day highs, IE, the "TURTLE" buy signal, one thing that's obvious even to me is all the GREEN on those markets. Of that bunch these are the markets breaking out over the previous highs, IE, they don't have much, if any, resistance over head, EWG, EWJ, EWQ, EZU, QQQ, XLK, XLY is right on resistance, and XLF would have joined that bunch if it had held the new high.


The losers more than doubled this week, 25 of them, EGPT showed up in the three spot after a brief respite last week, EWW is here again down in the eleven spot, the dollar was down .95% this week which SHOULD have sent oil higher, but not to be as USO is in the four spot at -2.31%, that of course put OIH and XLE on the front page, I have NO idea why oil would be weak in the face of the MASSIVE demand for oil Trump is going to creat. Another strange one is ten year interest rates went DOWN 1.57% this week but both IYR and XLU are on this list. Our worst major is the big boys, DIA down .41%, just ahead of Putin, SPY was down only .07%, or 16 cents, which is probably less than the slippage on a day trade. 


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 this week, I see nothing I'm even interested in glancing at. 


Here's the loser's for the week, it wouldn't surprise me to find out some of these got TRUMPED, again I have no idea why TSO is on this list, they should be flying with the huge demand for fuel Wall Street says is coming. Speaking of surprises, I'm kind of surprised to see only 230 stocks out of the 502 were higher this week, just, well, kind of surprising.


Here's the SP stocks on 20 day lows on Friday, I only mention this because of some of them showing up on this list, like WMT, AZO, TGT, KO, K, PEP, M, PVH, PSX and TSO, and again, if every thing is so fricking great why are these big time stocks showing up on the lows list???

Friday, January 06, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 1/6/2017


Woooo Hoooo, GREEN SHOOTS, GREEN SHOOTS, yeeeeeee haaaawwwww, the NasDOGS closed Friday at ALL TIME HIGHS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hhhmmm, it may have nade new ATH's but it's doing it with out any money flow as both the MFI and CMF are showing severe divergences, and the ROC is going right along with them and in danger of crossing below the ZERO line, AND:


Even WORSE, the $NAAD's have fallen against the new highs the last two days. I mean, ok, it nothing on that chart, but, Ya know, the BIGGEST moves have to start some where. I wouldn't even dream of trying to short them though unless they got at least under last week's low. 
Here's a good one:

Wall Street’s Most Outspoken Stock Bull Reverses, Now Top Bear

That would be Tom Lee of course, I mean, wooo hooo, now that he's on the bear side I can finally buy the Dogs ...............


Ok, enough fun, every one has to do their own thing, on to the big winners in my 80 markets, and the first page is all Furr-a-ners, well, accept for OIH, GDX, IYR, and XLV, you have to go to page two to see our major markets, those award winning NasDOGS were the big winners this week, QQQ up 1.85%, half of that gain on Friday, then the SPY at 1.27%, DIA at .77%, with the losers being the little guys, IWM up .24%, which is funny because they have been DEAD FLAT since they made ATH's over three weeks ago. I'm just guessing but they may be waiting to see if we get TRUMPED in a couple of weeks. 


There was only 11 losers this week, hardly worth mentioning, three of those were inverse funds, two were TUR and EWW, both of which we know have problems, at eight and nine we get quite strange as the dollar was DOWN .49% for the week, AND, OIL was DOWN, USO down .34%, which makes perfect sense in this market as that's almost an impossibility. 
The one logical one was the winner up at the top, UNG down 14% on the week, as the payroll report showed Baby Boomers starting to retire En masse, which means, of course, THEY CAN'T AFFORD TO BUY NATURAL GAS!!!


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 this week, and, WOO HOO, FCX was in the numero quatro spot, meaning, of course, I'm losing less money that before, hahahahaha, GDX helped a little this week. The one big THEME about the winners is that there is none. 


Here's the loser's for the week, if you don't know why there's so many retail names on the list, well, even I know why they are down, so, geeze, I DON'T however, know why TSO and VLO are on the list, or VMC for that matter as we all know The Donald is going to send it to Da Moon ....
It's so hilarious to see names like "T" on the list, as I read an article in Seeking Alpha that gave me, AT LEAST, 50 reasons why T is the absolutely GREATEST stock in the history of the WORLD, and I should own it ...... wad ever. It's like that dog XRX being the big winner this week after it spun off the out fit that former CEO thought was going to take it to the next level, which it DID, AFTER, they got rid of it!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...............HAH!!!!!!!!


Ya Know, with us being the most technologically advanced Country in the world, with the biggest and most computer geeks in the world, just how in the HELL could Russia hack us with out either our Government knowing about it, OR, more likely, our Government ALLOWING it, so they could claim foul in the election .................................

Saturday, December 31, 2016

MONTHLY AND WEEKLY UPDATE FOR 12/30/2016


The $NYAD's finished the year, month and week on a buy signal, and they have a good configuration as we have a positive divergence with the $NYA, so that means the NYAD's are leading us higher, which is what you want to see. Of course it wouldn't take much to roll this over into a sell, but the Bot's that rule the markets these days would probably just consider that the buying opportunity of a life time, although I have no idea of the life expectancy of Bots.


Of 12 major markets nine ended the year on buy signals, 20 sma above 50 sma, with only three still on sell, the sells are GLD, VWO, and TLT. Nothing is ever going to stop these markets but it is notable that the $COMPQ, SPY, IWM, $TRAN and $NYA have all broken below their 20 sma's.


Only ONE of the important Bullish Percent indexes are on a sell signal, that's $BPGDM, the gold miners, which is the bunch I spend almost all my time fooling around with. Price has shot higher through the 20 and 50 ma's so it's just a matter of time before it goes on a buy signal. All four of the major indexes have gone dead flat for the last three weeks of the year, and I feel a BIG MOVE coming, but I'm finding it hard to believe that move is going to be a new leg blasting to the upside, but nothing would surprise me. Price on $BPDISC is heading the wrong way, breaking below both the 20 and 50 ma's. 


XLP joined the buy party this week, as I guess the dollar is NOT going to hurt earnings, and XLV is only 8 cents away from doing the same and making the sectors all one big happy family of bulls. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that XLB, XLE, XLI, XLY, XLF, XME, and XHB have all broken below their 20 ma's, and the XRT has broken below both the 20 AND 50 ma's, as big box retailers did not fare to well over the holidays.


And the big winner in my 80 markets this month waasssss   ....................... EWI, as has been the case all year of where government officials warn of dire consequences if you nasty voters vote against them only to see the index go higher. Obama's best friend was in third, RSX up 9.98% for the month and 3.13% this week. Our best sectors are on this page with XLU up 4.90% as they some how defy all known historical tendencies and decide they actually LOVE higher interest rates hurting them, and XLF up 3.76% as they actually do LOVE higher interest rates, both of them were down on the week.
Most of the winners were foreign but way down at the bottom of the page was our best major index for the month, DIA up 3.51%, also down for the week, IWM was next up 2.88% on the month, then the SPY up 2.03%, also down on the week, then the hated NasDOGS bringing up the rear for the month, QQQ only up 1.13% way back in 41st place. 


China did not do well this past month with FXI and EWH down over 7%, SLV was in fourth down 3.51% as our paper money is better, right?? XME was actually down for the month which sucked 2% off their yearly win percentage, and all of that 2% was lost this past week. GLD was in 10th at -1.91%, which I only mention because once again we have a weird situation in which both SLV and GLD were LOWER on the month but the GDX went HIGHER, up .72%, and which speaking of GDX:


They were the huge winners the last week of the year, up 9.70%, even after a fall of 3.82% on Friday, as I guess we are pricing in Armageddon to start the year, hahahahahaha .......... or maybe we were UN-pricing it the last day of the year, geeze, talk about a fickle bunch ......
It is a little ominous that all our markets were lower on the week as it appears we were rotating out of them and into foreign indexes, as they are quite a bit cheaper on a metric basis , as shown below the USA is the only RED valuation of the bunch:


Our markets start showing up on the loser's side of the last week of the year with the QQQ, XLF, IYT, XHB, XLI, XLB, SMH, OIH SPY, DIA, RSP, with the big winner of the year, XME, being the big loser of the last week. 
With our markets making up all but three of the 20 worst performers of the last week of the year it makes me wonder, it does, are we just working off some of the excess of the dumb ass Trump run up, or is this the start of a much larger rotation or even correction?
The good part is that we can tune in next week to find out.


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this month, the WORST performer down at the bottom was MTB at a paltry 8.68%, the big winner for the year in the SP, NVDA, helped themselves a lot the last month with a 15.77% gain. Ya know, based on that highly "scientific" study I did in the yearly post below I highly doubt that NVDA will be showing up on the top 20 winners list at the end of 2017, but, of course, I'm not betting against it.


Here's the winners for the last week of the year in the SP, there "might" be a little rotation going on as some pretty big losers in the YTD column showed up as big gainers, like AGN, CF, ENDP, VRTX, and MYL. NEM makes up over 10% of the weighting of GDX so that MIGHT be a little contribution to GDX's performance last week, ABX makes up the top weighting and was 13.17% higher on the week. 


Hmmmmm, I can buy any thing online from AMZN for LESS than I pay at the big box retailers AND have it delivered to my door step for FREE, so why in the hell would I buy one of the things??? And the "market" agrees with me, as six of the worst 20 SP stocks last month were just that, with seven more thrown in for good measure. My FCX shows up in the seven spot, and I would appreciate it if I didn't come again on that roll. I get the impression the market now thinks maybe China is NOT going to be building more ghost cities, although personally, I LOVE'EM!!


Here's the last week of the year losers, a LOT of them rank pretty high in that YTD column, so this is just probably profit taking, right? RIGHT??? On the flip side I would say that MNK and TGNA, which I have no idea what either one of them are, are possibly the victims of tax selling, and I might include DO on the list, and at least I know exactly what that one is ......

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