Monday, April 20, 2015

TRADE "IDEAS" FOR WEEK OF APRIL 20, 2015

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TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
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CAUTION IS ADVISED!!


Saturday, April 18, 2015


Some one posted a chart like this on Twitter with the caption "Here we go again", IE, we are testing the bottom trend line going back to last October, well, really:

I count SIX previous trend lines going back to "OCTOBER", that were ALL busted, and haven't meant a damn thing. I completely understand the point of trend lines, they are a nice trigger/stop points for trading, but you can't just keep moving it out and using the worn out "October" claim, wad ever, I'm sorry I even mentioned it, after all, they are useful. 


PERSONALLY, I prefer lateral support/resistance lines, like the "Pristine Method", Greg Capra type stuff, etc, it's all up to the individual. One thing that's OBVIOUSLY clear to any one, even me, is we've made a series of HIGHER LOWS and LOWER HIGHS since the low and high in February, or, an OBVIOUS triangle since the February high and the March low, which we've been talking about for a couple of weeks now, and some thing that we have still NOT broken, and when we DO break it, well, the odds are that we get a pretty big move in one direction or Da Udder. Just as more than likely, the FIRST move will, "PROBABLY", be a FAKE OUT move, like that February low at 1980 was, as the "Market" rarely makes things very easy. 

The option makers are pricing the July SPY 208 calls at $5.50 and the 208 puts at $6.00, you, "COULD", buy the straddle and then TRY and sell weeklies against it, the weekly ATR is $5, you could go $3 OTM and sell the April 24 211 calls for maybe .23 cents and the 205 puts for .50 cents, you got 13 weeks until expiration so you pick up $2.99 on the calls and $6.50 on the puts, in, "THEORY", or, be brave, and wait and see if a BIG move cover's the spread.
Wad ever, it's just a thought, there's probably a million, and ONE, ways to do this stuff. 

Friday, April 17, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP


Wow, what a bad day, so bad that the main men in the breath indicator family, the NYAD's, triggered a sell signal. This, of course, could be another whip saw, as the BIG picture is just fine, as it made new all time highs along with the $NYA, so we have no nasty divergences like we had at the ATH's back in October of 07'.


Those ATH's were just two narrow range days on the chart, which with the big down day leaves an Abandoned Baby, Island Reversal, or wad ever you want to call it, it did hold the Automatic trend line that shows up just under the close today. Besides, when the Chairlady gets a look at this over the weekend she will undoubtedly panic and pump a few trillion bucks into GS and JPM and the rest of Da Boyz on Da Street with orders to buy the shit out of the futures on Sunday night, maybe even with orders to buy the Chinese markets, with MARGIN, hahahahahahahahaha................


These are the big wiener's in my 76 markets I kept track of this week, USO and UNG won with gains of 7.77 and 5%, not surprisingly our best sector was DBC and OIH, two oil producing countries were right there as well, EWC and RSX up 2.69 and 2.66%, our best major market showed up on the first page this week, TLT up 1.41%, 1 market closed at a 20 day high, BND, vs 13 last week, 3 closed at 20 day lows, two were IYR and XHB, which is weird, as the 30 year went down this week to close at 2.505%, EWG was the other one that closed on a low because Chinese traders were using to much margin, by the way their ten year bond is yielding some thing like .046%, or some thing like that, I think that's more likely the problem, 3 closed at a low last week as well, 48 finished with a golden cross, 20 SMA above 50 SMA, vs 39 last week....


Here's the loser's for the week, which include all of our stock markets, EWG was the winner, down 3.80%, on a side note I know a big trading outfit that's been around a long time, DTI, whose whole thesis in trading futures is that the DAX leads the S and P 500, so I wonder what they think these days. QQQ, despite NFLX, was the "winner" in our markets, down 1.61%, then DIA at minus 1.35%, SPY was down exactly 1%, then our big gainer for the week was IWM, ONLY, down .95%.


In the spirit of Alcoa and the rest of the Costanza markets, NFLX missed earnings estimates by almost 50%, were 22% LOWER than last year, and ZACK's said their earnings will fall by almost 30% YOY in this quarter, so, NATURALLY, they were the unchallenged winner's in the S and P 500 this week, up 25.73%, beating all those dumb ass stocks that may have made the mistake of putting out GOOD earnings. Of course, their subscriber growth was huge, and their margins increased, but being ME, I fail to see how adding subscribers that leads to LOWER earnings can be a good thing down the road, but, HEY, who cares about earnings, as the social media stocks can attest to. On a side note I really would like to meet the person who paid $47 for the $475 straddle at the close before earnings, and lived to brag about it the next day. MAT ended up in fourth place, I mention them as they got smart as well, reporting a LOSS on the quarter, as, THEY GET IT, their problem was the loss wasn't BIG enough, or they would have gone up more.
I made money on FCX this week, and I don't have the foggiest idea of how I did that, hahahahahahahahaha...................... I was the proud owner of 19.50 calls that were set to expire this week, I had forgotten about them and was checking some thing else on Thursday and they were in the money by a buck and a half, I thought it was a bad tick, hahaha, I guess they must have missed earnings or had some other bad news to report, RIGHT???!!!


Here's the big loser's this week, or more probably the earnings WINNER'S, he he he, surprising about WYNN as I woulda thunk that all those Chinese millionaires that were created the last few weeks would be blowing it at Steve's place, TWC was down as the justice department is actually thinking there MIGHT be a little anti-trust problem in their merger with Comcast............ YOU THINK!!!! KR and WFM were down because NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO AFFORD FOOD if we have many more days like this.

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