Friday, June 26, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR JUNE 26, 2015



Both the $NYAD at the top and the $NYSI had little whip saws this week, with both clawing over the signal line by Wednesday, but they both closed the week back on sell signals.
This is NOT an invitation to trade any thing, just giving some fact's on breath indicators.


The Candleglance charts show the Silver Cross, the 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, on the major indexes the DIA, $TRAN, $CRB, $NYA remain on SELL signals, with the $COMP and IWM on BUY signals, and the SPY just barely holding on to a BUY signal, the Dollar is still on sell, and the 10 year yields gained 9.22% this week to close at 2.476%, meaning, of course, bonds probably got killed.



Some one on Twitter was insisting that the AAII senitment index means some thing because it was under 20% bulls on June 11, so, I decided to look for myself. The bottom chart is the AAII going back to 1987, the top is the SPX going back to 1996, the red numbers ABOVE the SPX bars are the periods on the AAII chart when bulls were above 60% at certain times, and the red numbers UNDER the SPX bars are when the AAII was under 20% at certain times.
This is just for your information, come to your own conclusions, but two of the three times we were under 20% resulted in big rallies, with the other time resulting in about a 50% DROP, sssooooooooooooooooooooo.......
Four of the higher readings ended with the index going higher, while the other three were pretty good TOP pickers, especially the one on 10/11/07.



Here's the big wiener's in my 77 markets this week, the AG's finally made their big move this week, DBA up 3.89%, I watch the weekly AG report on RFD every week and the trader's kind of expected this, but they also think it won't last long and will go back and retest the lows this summer. I had to go all the way down to number 17 to get to an American index, XHB was up 1.3% on the week as home buyers LOVE higher interest rates I guess, the dollar was UUP 1.3%, all the rest of the stuff on that list were the udder worldly markets as I guess they loved the turmoil in Greece.


We start showing up on the loser's list, with TLT in third at minus 3.23%, you just blew your whole YEAR in those MASSIVE dividends, hahahahahahaha, none of our majors showed up on this list either, as our big winner was "only" down .25% on the week, the IWM, next was DIA at -.33%, then SPY at -.43%, with the NasDOGS bringing up the rear with QQQ -.56%.
Two markets closed on a 20 day high vs 1 last week, that was DBA and ERY, 16 closed at 20 day lows vs 3 last week, 20 closed on a Silver Cross vs 23 last week, 44 NYSE stocks closed with PSAR buy signals vs 137 last week, 299 on PSAR sell signals vs 84, big change for the week, 87 closed on 52 wk highs vs 121 and 79 closed on 52 wk lows vs 37 last week, 85 had CCI buy signals vs 119 and 235 were on CCI sell signals vs 110 last week.


Here's the big winner's in the SP 500 this week, WMB was a take over, the next three were also take overs, all by Obama, MRO was a Cramer thing, then LEN was an actual EARNINGS beat, woooo hooooo, I have no idea why DE was in the 12 spot, all those farmers I listen to say they won't be buying equipment for years and years, hhhhhhmmmmmm, I get an AA feeling here. Wonderful company, I love it, I just can't figure it out.


And here's the beg loser's, WYNN just cracks me up, it was like over $240 or so at the start of 2014 and it closed under $100 this week, I guess Macau is a disaster, MON in no. 6 spot is kind of a DE thingey, as they said they see no respite from low crop prices, and once again, I seem to say DE and hhhhmmmm in the same breath, but like I always say, what the hell do I know, I wouldn't short DE just because it would be UN-American as hell to do so.

Saturday, June 20, 2015

POSSIBLE TRADE "IDEAS" FOR WEEK OF MONDAY JUNE 22, 2015

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WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 6/19/2015



The main men, the $NYAD's, have triggered a buy signal, ALTHOUGH, with the down turn on Friday it "could" be a whip saw. Also, the $NYA closed above the May low while the $NYAD failed to even get above that low, so they are still leading us lower.



Both the $NYSI and $NYUD remain on sell signals.


The $SPXADP triggered a buy signal on Thursday and followed through again on Friday, even with the down day. The slightly bad is that the $SPX is on the verge of new ATH's while the $ADP is lagging badly.


The top ten markets this week in my 76 markets I keep track of were all those udder worldly markets, like EPI, RSX, TUR, etc, our best sector came in at 11, IYR, up 1.68%, followed by GLD, then UNG, then our best major market, IWM up 1.52% on the week, then the NasDOGS, QQQ up 1.05% on the week, TLT .94%, DIA .33%, with the SPY bringing up the rear at .27%.
45 markets were higher on the week with 31 lower, 1 closed with a new 20 day high, XHB, vs 0 last week, 3 on a 20 day low, OIH, ECH and XLE, vs 4 last week, the NYSE had 137 stocks close with a PSAR buy signal vs 70 last week, 84 on a PSAR sell vs 63, 121 closed on 52 wk highs vs 49 last week, and 37 on new lows vs 50 last week, 119 closed with CCI buy signals vs 41 last week, and 110 on CCI sell signals vs 157, so all big improvements.


Here's the big loser's for the week, FXI with the big wiener, losing 4.70%, XME with down 2.07%, USO 1.23%, financials lost after the dovish FOMC, XLF minus 1.20%, quite a few of those udder worldly markets showed up on this list as well, Germany probably being the most notable, EWG down .75%.


Here's the big winner's in the SP 500 this week, it was quite a TRIP, as it was up 19.50% as they got Marriott as a partner, CAG was up 13.8% because of an upset activist investor, CI was up on a take over bid, and, no, it wasn't Obama.
The SP closed with 35 stocks at 52 wk highs vs 5 last week, 3 closed at lows vs 7, they were CHK, CNX and a real surprise, CF, although "PART" of that may have been the 5:1 split........ hahahahaha, 67 closed at 20 day highs vs 10 last week and 27 closed at lows vs 47, 227 closed with a Silver cross, 20 SMA above 50 SMA, vs 258 last week, 2 closed with an RSI 14 above 80, CAG and PLL, 271 closed with an RSI above 50 vs 193 last week and 231 below 50 vs 309.


Here's the big loser's this week, ORCL and FDX are notable as they both missed earnings, lowered guidance, and basically said they are going BROKE, which probably doesn't bode well for the up coming earnings season, but, HEY, who cares about some thing like earnings, they'll just borrow more money at ZERO percent from the FED and use it to buy back shares, which will fix ALL their problems, woooo hooooo!

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