Monday, September 01, 2014

HAPPY LABOR DAY



HHHMMMMMMMM, I always wondered why I thought that 1969 seemed like my last good year!!!!
Since Tricky Dicky took us off the gold standard in 1971 our wages as a percent of GDP has declined from 51.5% to 42.5%, THANK YOU KING DOLLAR.......................NOT!!!

Also, it begs the question that if wages only make up 42.5% of GDP how can consumer spending make up 70% of GDP????????????????

AAAAAAAHHHHHH...........HAH!!! In the Weekly Wrap Up post below I asked myself the question of why Brazil led my 73 markets last week, well, I got the answer:

  • HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, but of course, in these Central Bank manipulated Costanza markets where only BAD news is considered GOOD news, it only makes sense that news of a recession would send the EWZ to Da stinking MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNN!
  • It seems like forever since those of days of Yore when news of a recession would send markets DOWN 50-60%, you know, like waaaaaaaaay back in 2000 and 2008............ with all the economic reports we have this week I can only imagine that inwestor's are praying for some really shitty news, WOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!!


Ya know, that's a pretty interesting chart, mainly because you know EXACTLY where you DON'T want it, which is the most important part of inwesting. This guy makes some points about picking some shares up here, Transocean: High-Yield Contrarian Play Continues To Bottom , not the least of which is a 7.76% dividend yield while you wait it out.
It's also one of the very few companies that the DCF valuation over at Guru Focus thinks is actually UNDER valued:


It thinks it's 48% under valued and worth $74, sounds good to ME!!!!

My problem of course is that among my MANY weakness's is that I have a strong tendency to ANCHOR, and since I last brought this thing in 03' at $19 I REFUSE to pay any thing higher than that for it!
Oh well, sigh, maybe it will get some GREAT news and the stock will COSTANZA back down to $19 where I can pick some up again, WOOOOO HOOOOO!!!!!!

WOOOOO HOOOOOO (I seem to be using that a LOT today, hahahaha), get ready for a CONSTANZA blow up this week:

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 13-Month Low, with Germany Worse than Expected, Italy and France in Contraction:...

Countries Ranked by Manufacturing PMI®  

  • Ireland 57.3 176-month high
  • Spain 52.8 4-month low
  • Netherlands 51.7 13-month low
  • Germany 51.4 (flash 52.0 ) 11-month low
  • Austria 50.9 Unchanged
  • Greece 50.1 3-month high
  • Italy 49.8 14-month low
  • France 46.9 (flash 46.5 ) 15-month low 













1951 BUICK LESABRE

WEEKLY WRAP UP



Hhhhhhmmmm, why do I have the Q's up there instead of the SPY? Hold on a minute, hahahaha, I remember, that's a senior moment there, one of my favorite people, Andy Crowder, run's an Iron Condor stock service, and he gives webinar's every so often where he lays out his strategy, he gave one this week, basically he only trades the most liquid ETF's and AAPL, he uses the three RSI's above in his selection criteria, a 14, 5 and 2 settings where he wants all three to be over sold or over bought before he will start legging into the call side or the put side, and this week he mentioned the Q's above as a trade idea, as it's obviously over bought on all three time frames, I have a 13 RSI rather than the 14, but that's just me as I like to use FIB numbers. Andy uses other criteria other than the RSI, but that's the main one he always talks about.
I bring this up because his trade is to put on the Call side Condor, short 103 October calls and long 105 calls, which is fine, each to his own, but I would point out that just because the Q's are over bought on all three RSI's doesn't mean it can't go up even MORE! What happened prior to the last pull back was we got divergences as the RSI's made lower highs while the Q's went on to make a higher high before it pulled back. Just trying to short it because it's over bought doesn't mean it has to pull back, I mean, you might miss the move if you wait for divergences to show up but your odds of success may also increase.
Just my personal opinion of course, Andy knows a lot more about it than I do.


Speaking of divergences we are getting another one on the $NYMO, we had a couple of them ahead of the last pull back, so the $NYMO "may" be saying some thing, but more than likely the markets just continue to defy the odds and grind higher. I would mention that the main men, the $NYAD's and $NYSI, are in fine shape and showing no problems.


The $NYNL is also diverging, as they are WAY lower than the highs made in early June.


Brazil blew up this week for some reason, leading my 73 markets in my Market Monitor, up 6.53% on the week. Our best "X", or SECTOR, this week, was the XLF, up 3.45%, followed by XLU, XLV and XLY, our best MAJOR market was bonds, TLT up 1.5%, then IWM, 1.17%, RSP .85%, SPY .76%, QQQ .74%, with the Big Dogs bringing up the rear, DIA up .59%.


There were 20 out of 73 markets down this week, a big improvement over last week, most of them were those Udder Worldly things like RSX, EWH, FXI, but WAAAAAYYYYYY down at the bottom is the best performing sector in our markets this year, IYT down a MASSIVE .19% this week, very shocking I would say. Ya know, every devastating bear market begins with the smallest step. 

One thing that didn't improve this week was the number of markets with a Death Cross, 20sma below 50sma, it stayed the same as last week at 45 markets, they were RSX,RSP,IDX,EIS,EIDO,EPHE,THD,SH,QID,IDX,FXI,OIH,BND,GDX,VWO,VXX,XIV,UNG,DBA,DBC,ECH,EEM,EGPT,EIRL,EPI,EPU,ERY,EWA,EWC,EWD,EWG,EWH,EWI,EWJ,EWK,EWL,EWM,EWN,EWO,EWP,EWQ,EWS,EWT,EWU,EWZ,EWY,EWW,EZA,IYR,IYT,JNK,TUR,IWM,SPY,QQQ,DIA,JNK,USO,TLT,FXE,FXF,SMH,VOO,GLD,SLV,VGK,XLV,XLY,XLF,XLB,XLE,XLI,XLP,XLK,XLU. Just because they have a death cross in the MA's doesn't mean they aren't going UP, as a lot of those are actually ABOVE the 20sma in price. 


These are the big winner's in the SP 500 this week.


And these are the big loser's, I'm surprised to see GRMN leading the charge lower, if you listen to the talking heads that company is the greatest thing going........... or so I hear!
I swear, SWEAR I TELL YA, that CLF will not, I repeat, NOT, be on this loser's list................ one of these years!












1954 FORD LA TOSCA.


Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part II)
Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, terrorist attacks, inflation, monetary policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market
By Elliott Wave International
You may remember that during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did the traditional financial models fail? And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one? That's a crucial question to your financial well-being. This series gives you a well-researched answer. Read more.

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