1/7/09

6:00pm: I don't think I should mention this, but, hey, it never stopped me before, but I've been hanging out in the Pristine room during their free period. Now, right off the batt, I'm going to say the moderator's are terrific, they've made a ton of money the last two days while I've been in there, I mean, hey, if your looking for some place to pay, to have them tell you what to do, I certainly know a lot worse places you could go (like, HERE), but, it's not for me, and I KNOW THAT!! I don't, or more probably, CAN'T, do what they do, number one, my accounts won't allow it, unless I sit there for four days with nothing to do, waiting for IB and Tradestation to put the money back in my IRA's, and in that same vein, I trade OPTIONS, so I don't have to wait for the money to be put back in, BUT, in doing that, I need a BIGGER move, so I work off of LONGER time frames, like a 15 and 60min chart, rather than a 2 and 5 minute chart.
But that's neither here nor there, what I wanted to bring up, is what a kick it is to watch the people posting on the site, I mean, they are beating each other over the head, trying to be the first one to post some stock or some thing, that is moving, so, I GUESS, they can be mentioned by the moderator, as in, HEY, YEA, I can see that, let's give it a shot!! But the one that cracked me up, is the market is dumping today, obviously, and I'm watching the A/D line, and the Q's, and the moderator says, WOW, this thing (what ever it was) looks good, let's buy it over such and such, with a stop under such and such, and this one individual says, "I'm not buying ANYTHING, the A/D's are minus 2000, you'd have to be crazy to buy any thing right now".

Now, I have to give myself a second, to let that sink in. NUMBER ONE, what the individual is doing, is GAMING the moderator, IE, he's paying two or three hundred a month, to have this guy tell him to do some thing, and when he does, the first thing this individual does, is say, well, I'M NOT BUYING ANY THING!!!! You get my point there! I mean, why pay the big bucks, if, you are going to sit there, and wait for the moderator to tell you to do some thing, and then, NOT DO IT, because of your own personal biasis. NUMBER TWO, and what my FIRST thought was, was, well, if the A/D's were OVER 2000, or PLUS 2000, and the stock had already been running up like a MF'er, and over bought like crazy, and he said buy it, YOU WOULD JUMP ALL OVER IT, RIGHT??!!!!

5:30pm: I only have YRCW up there, because Bill Zollars, the CEO, was on the Crudlow show tonight, and he's one of my two or three favorite CEO's in the world. Crudlow had him on with Wiiiiiiiilbur Ross, and one of Barrack the Builder's buddies (who happens to be in real estate, buy all you can, as Barrack will undoubtedly be bailing him out), anyway, the conversation was about the economy, and Wilbur and da udder guy said Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah, until he got to Bill, and Bill, being what he is, HONEST, said, IT SUCKS!!! Hahahahaha!!
ANYWAY, I'm OUT of YRCW, from lower levels. Now, this little INSIDE DAY, tight little doji, "COULD", be, a continuation candle, IE, the stock pauses, and then CONTINUE's in the previous direction. Personally, I don't care, this "could" also be a lower high, the one good thing, is that it's above the 50ma, and well, there's another good thing, it recently made a higher low. But, with earnings so close, and the thing getting close to over bought, I think I'll wait, and see if I can pick it up at lower levels.

2:10pm: Welp, we got the pull back I have been anticipating, like, FOREVER, hahaha, we got a perfect storm of news this morning, which was enough to get people all fighting to get out the single fire door at the same time, like Oppenheimer analyst Whitney's comments ding financial stocks , Intel sees fourth-quarter revenue drop of 23% from year ago , and that HORRIBLE ADP report ADP employment index shows 693,000 jobs lost in December .
Blogger is not letting me down load charts, so, NO charts, dirty rotten muther's! ANYWAY, the most interesting part for me right now, is that the DOW closed at the at the low of the year, IE, it took out the gains of the first three days, IN ONE DAY!! AND, tomorrow marks the end of the first five days of the year, which is called "The early warning system", whereby, so goes the first week, so goes the rest of the year!! Personally, I don't see anyway Da Boyz let that happen, so they probably close us over last fridays open tomorrow, just to make sure they suck in as many as they can.

I'm out of every thing, acept the Uggies, which I have hedged like crazy, USUALLY, you get either two or three moves on a pull back like this, today was just the first wave, so we could have one or two more to go, besides, like I said before, I won't get interested on the Q's again until that congestion area, or around the 50% retracement level I talked about, around 30.

I DID take a couple of dinkly little Leap call positions in AA and INTC, my theory there is that they've already gotten out the bad news, and may get a little surprise when they actually report next week.

ANYWAY, I've been a little under the weather, not to mention the snow, and just hanging out in the Pristine room during the free period, which ends tomorrow. If we get a decent pull back here, like three days at a minimum, then I'll start sitting up in my chair again, and start partialing back into all those positions I was carrying before.

Barry Rosen is always fun, AND, he can be pretty right on as well, here's his yearly out look:
http://view.exacttarget.com/?j=fe621578726506797617&m=ff2c13767065&ls=fe2f16727465037f711c75&l=fec6157372640174&s=fded1575726d057a7c117376&jb=ffcf14&ju=fe2816717d650c7b731370

1/6/09

2:15pm: That 15min chart is a beautiful thing, a pretty good case study for future referrence. On the daily the Q's had another doji like hammer looking candle on it. I thought I took a picture of the SPY, but I can't find it, but it actually had an inside day, with a red doji, after five days up, even beautiful things will come to an end at some point, I HOPE!

Now EOD 1/05/09

6:15pm: Hmmm, my key board went out. ANYWAY, the percent of stocks above their 50DMA in the NasDogs is very close to a sell the world level, which happens to coincide with other over bought levels. Personally, of course, I'm praying for a "pull back".
The Captain, some times called Captain Kirk, or http://www.thekirkreport.com/ , is making more changes this year, and it is definitely worth the 50 bucks to join the site, if for nothing more than the monthly interviews with other famous people he does. He has always had a tendency to tell you what he did, rather than what he is doing, but he plans on adding things like a twitter, or maybe even a chat room, getting rid of some unused features, and expanding the screens. I'll give him another year to get with the program.
In regard to that chart above, it remind's me that I'm throwing the T2108, or what ever it's called, OUT, that is the percent of stocks above the 200DMA, it is completely WORTHLESS, as it's still showing like 10% of stocks above their 200DMA, it USED to be, that anything under 20 was a buy, and below 15-10-5 etc etc etc, was a buy the world. OBVIOUSLY, that has proved to NOT BE THE CASE.
Which reminds me, most of the "systems" I look at, work the absolute BEST, when we get above the 50DMA, meaning, you buy stocks on pull backs in an uptrend, with an uptrend being defined as being above the 50 day moving average.
Pristine is having another three day free (the magic word) trial, starting tomorrow, if you aren't a member of their free (the magic word) services, you can sign up here http://www.pristine.com/ , you also get free access for the week to their options trading room, go get'em tigers.

The IWM put on an uugilly looking "hanging man" candle today, it better not gap down tomorrow, ouchey, pinchey, cadroney weyvos!!! My MSFT broke out a little today, making up for doggie Inkey, INTC, I may be selling the PVX, AAV and SGR tomorrow, I'm thinking about it.

2:10pm: Ummmmm, Yummie, the UYM is one of my partials left over from the friday slaughter I did, I'm in from just under 13, AGAIN, as this was the second time around over the past few weeks. Now, what I see, is the LOOK of this thing, is starting to change, it just barely touched that lower trend line, the blue line, and bounced, I mean, it's not a sell yet, but it's hanging on by a thread. When I look at the pattern today, it dosn't look much like the prior three days, it's CHANGED, IE, this "could" be the stage three top, as we get ready for a dump, and, THEN, waaaa laaaaa, I'll buy it again.

The Uggies are lagging the market, and frankly, that 60min chart don't look to fricking hot. Please ignore the Stockchart's.com chart, it's a mistake, and I can't get it out without deleting the whole post.

On the Q's, I got a Fibo on it that goes from friday's highs to the lows last week when this dumb ass runup started. One thing I see right away today on this, as well, is that it's, aaaaahhh, CHANGED, it's not doing the same fluid move skywards. ANYWAY, under no circumstances, no way in hell, is there any, nada, zero, zlich, chance, that I am going to buy this thing, until it does some thing reasonable with that ridiculous STOCH, my god, it would be suicide, for me at least, to buy it here. Besides, it did a chicken shit break out failure in the middle of the day, it's that hammer candle with the tail on top, when it broke over friday's highs, sucked in as many Mojo player's as they could, then turned it around, and took the next bar down. With the little green bar into the close, what they are effectively trying to do is to get those Mojo chaser's having a severe case of seller's remorse, and chase it higher, well, GOOD LUCK TO THEM. I hope they make millions, I really do, but I won't get interested until we at least, AT LEAST, come down and test that 38.20% retracement level, which also happens to coincide with the prior congestion area, and also is close to the whole numbe of 30!

I wanted to mention, to ME, there was a pretty cool little modifiied "trap door" on the Q's this morning, modified because I like to see three to five bars, this went six bars. This trap door was even better, because the trend is up, and this gapped against the trend. So it gaps down, puts the little doji bar on the sixth bar, takes off and breaks over the high of the doji on the next bar. Now, that's a "take", but I missed it, I waited to long, as I have this bull headed shit going on in my head that I want to see a decent pull back on the 60min chart. BUT, they pull it back on the next bar, at the red arrow, and take the prior bar's lows out, and then turn it around and start going up, I took it when that bar went green, stop under the LOD's, hahahahahaha, cool gap fill, the ROACH's!! The five minute really show's how we struggled with the highs from friday, as we fell off the gap fill, tried those highs again, fell back in a clean five bar pull back, then tried them again. I want to point out, TO MYSELF, that when they broke the friday highs THIS TIME, the bar was a fluid bar, IE, it went right through it, they didn't hesitate at all. At this point, Da Boyz are in suck'em in as fast as they can mode, the Mojo players, but it actually didn't take long at all, before Da Boyz realized they were'nt getting anyone to follow them, as evidenced by the punk volume on those two green bars, sooooooo, they said screw it, and took it down looking for sleazy bottom fishers like me, hahahahaha!! That little break over the highs, between two and three ET, was the failed break out bar on the 60min chart.

Now, I don't recommend this to anyone, but I'm not doing anything, so I'm watching the tube, Bloomberg and Bubbleberg, and I'm sitting on my hands, to make sure I don't do anything, so consequently I have the remote between my chin and my chest, and wouldn't you know it, but it turns into a zoo out there this afternoon, hahahahahahahaha!! First off, the senate hearings start on investigating what went wrong with the MadDog ponzi scheme, so I'm pushing my chin down to flip over to Bubbleberg to see if they AREN'T covering it, they aren't, they're on the MadDog thing, but then the girl announcer says that Kramer guy is back from vacation, OOP's, push shove back on the remote, then Bloomberg goes off on Meg Whitman resigning from every thing involved with EBAY and PG because she's going to be running for govenator of PrunePickerVille, oop's, push shove dip grunt, back to Bubbleberg, oop's, Barrack the Builder is starting to make a speech, oop's, push shove dip grunt yank, back to Bloomey, OMG, the court is revoking Maddog's bail, oop's, we flip quick to the federal prosecutor who is going to crack down with an investigation of the dealings in the SEC with Maddog (for the life of me, all that guy has to do is stand up and tell his agents to arrest all the senator's in the committe, as they are all involved just as deeply as Maddog), anyway, I'm getting tired of the dipping and grunting, and besides, da stinking market starts to go down at the same time, hahahahahahahaha!!! I'm telling ya, what ever Direct TV charges me, it's not enough for this much entertainment.

6:45am: Futures are down across the boards, about .80%, DOW about 60 points, it's been this way since the open last night. The 30min ES chart has actually triggered a sell, with the last bar just taking out the over night lows, the current bar is trying to turn green, and hold the 919 level, which is a level I've heard a lot of trader's refer to, although I will admit it means nothing to me.
ANYWAY, when you get a dumb ass run up like we had friday, you leave a VOID under us, IE, there is no pivot area's to provide support, meaning, we could easily take out friday's bar, which would be a typical trick by Da Boyz, to take prices back down to where we started the year, and allow all their buddies to get in the market where we started the year, while they were partying out in the Hampton's friday. We are trying to stop the drop right now as I am writing, right out in the middle of now where, now if they continue with this bull shit, and take us up from here, off of NO support, then I will be watching after the open, to see what happens if they double top us, at this point that would be my only interest point.
Yields are blowing up, meaning bonds are dumping, if this continues for a week or so, I will start getting back in bonds. The middle east fun must not be to exciting, as oil is down, and gold is losing 28 points with the dollar UP almost two percent, all very interesting stuff.
Good luck out there today.

Sunday Odds N Ends (mostly odds)

I've been nibbling back into bonds in the Vanguard account, besides the high yield corporate which I've been holding a while, I'm moving into the TIPS, or VIPSX in Vanguard, mainly because they are actually DOWN compared to the dumb ass blow up's in most of the other bonds. I mean, IF, the "markets" are going to continue to move up, those bonds are going to get crushed so fast, it's going to make my already swimming head swim even more. ANYWAY, that chart compares the VIPSX to UUP, the bullish dollar ETF. There's not a lot of data in UUP, but so far, they move almost exactly opposite, my plan here (when I say "my", I mean "me", as I'm talking to myself, and posting this for future referrence to find out where I screwed up), is to use UUP to counter any weakness in VIP, and take in the 3% yield. I will sell UUP if I can get like a 20% gain in it. I say that, because EWI is out with a bullish forecast on the dollar, at least, in the EUR/USD trade (I guess that means bullish as compared to the Euro, not particularly bullish over all for the dollar). I will cut UUP loose if it shows any weakness, and try and pick it up at lower levels, as my OVER ALL thoughts are that commodities are going to go back to going through the roof, eventually. By the way, VIPSX works almost exactly the same with MOO, DBA, DBC, USO, etc etc etc. Now, I "could", work an allocation that incorporates the dollar, VIP and one of the commodity funds, WHICH, is "probably", how I will do it. ALSO, IF, the bonds dump, like they should, then I will also get back into the longer term Vanguard bonds, like BND.

From what I've been reading, 99% of the "experts", IE, "economist" (as in, foggy headed), are saying the economy will "bottom" by the end of the first half, a handful are saying it won't be until the third quarter, my first thought on this, is, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! WHY IN THE "HELL", would anybody listen to what those idiots have to say, they have NEVER gotten it right!!! ANYWAY, that is what is moving the market higher right now, as Da Boyz are using the low volume to try and suck in as many as they can, on the infamous "the market is climbing the wall of worry" bull shit, OR, what is being equally pumped, is "the market is a discounting mechanism and leads the bottom in the economy, on "average", by "about", six months" bull shit. Number one, like I mentioned earlier last week, there is no "FEAR", or, "WORRY", as the VIX has been dumping, so you can throw that out. I went through a shit pile of sentiment charts this weekend, A/D's, 52 week high/lows, blah blah blah blah blah, and I can't really get a handle on it one way or da udder. The one I find most bothersome though, is the Put/Call ratio, it's to low to really provide any short covering fire power. ALSO, the A/D's have a slight downard divergence in the NYSE, also not particurlay encouraging.

OK, we've broken out, very clearly as a matter of fact, also very clear, is that next resistance is that light blue line just above 95 on the SPY. I mentioned it on the Q's as well, that line is around 32 on them, I'm showing the SPY, because it don't stinking matter, every fricking index looks EXACTLY the same. Where was I, oh, yea, OK, so we've broken out, now personally, I sold a bunch of "stuff" friday, so now that I've done that, I can say without any qualm's, that we are going higher, as Da Boyz will try and get me chasing it, to get back in. Well, SCREW YOU Boyz, I saved some, just in case they try and pull that bull shit on me, hahahahahaha, TAKE THAT!!! I actually sold about half of every thing, in case I'm wondering. NOW, I WANT to get back in, PLUS, I was not very heavy to start with, IE, I'm still working with very light positions, SO, I will go back in HEAVIER, IE, larger positions. NOW, there's a couple of way's I "plan" (hahahahahaha, yeeeeeaaaa, like I have a "plan") on doing this, depending on what Da Boyz choose as their method of "suck'em'in'itist", there's only a couple of ways they can do this. One, the 60min charts are one MF'ing over bought peice's of shit, and NEED to pull back (not to mention the dailies, in which the RSI2 is over 97-98 on most of them), WHICH, by me saying that, means they will continue to climb higher, and get MORE MF'ing over bought (SIGH!), WHICH, is fine with me, IF they do that, THEN, I will wait for the first pull back. When you get a break out like this, then, the first pull back is buyable "almost" 100% of the time. My point of extreme interest, or, when I'm sitting up on the edge of my seat, would be if they continue up, then pull back, and TEST the break out points, THAT, would REALLY get me sitting up and taking notice. I have to keep in mind, that "they" will amost ALWAYS take it UNDER the break out point, to try and scare the shit out of everyone first, then, they magically start going back up, AT WHICH POINT, I would take it when it gets back above those break out points, with a stop under what ever low they make when they tried to scare the shit out of everyone.

Now, the only other thing "they" can do, is take us down. If they do that, I probably won't be as all smiley faced about it, as that could be baaaaaaaad (those damn sheep). Yea yea yea, a lot of times when we get this over bought, we get a sharp quick down thrust that scares the shit out of everyone, and works off the over bought, and then we magically move up again, WHICH, wouldn't be all bad, as I could start to nibble again above those break out points, BUT, I will NOT be going in heavy, as I would have to be watching for a double top possiblity, PLUS, I won't be trying to bottom fish if they take us down out of the chute tomorrow, as they may just continue going down. If they take us down, my reason for thinking it's bad, is that this could be a "break out fake out" setup, as "they" try to get out of Dodge at higher prices, before warning season starts, and then earnings, which unbelievably get's under way a week from tomorrow with AA. This is a really important earnings season, as not only are earnings probably going to be dog shit, but a lot of companies give a projection for the year ahead, WHICH, could get all those analyst who are projecting S&P earnings of 84 bucks for the next year, scrambling to get them lowered to 40-50 bucks, trying to save as much face as they can, which of course means the S&P would be currently over valued by about 30-50%, hahahaha, wouldn't THAT be a shock!! Naturally, the buzz word that 99% of Da Street analyst are using right now, is that, it's OK, because the "market" has already built in those piss poor earnings, woooooo hooooooo!!! Well, the good part about that, is that we shall see, won't we!!

Premarket 1/02/08

2:00pm: Hahahaha! What a wild day for me, geeze, anybody know where we finished? Was it UP??? All the way up until this post, I was still thinking it was monday. I was making breakfast this morning, and boiling some eggs at the same time, and I'm tellin ya, I've done this probably a half dozen times, geeze, idiot, I got like six or seven minutes left on the eggs, so I go in, and I'm standing by the fireplace, kind of casually watching the monitors, and I kind of casually step over, and sit down, and start really watching, and blank out, and 40 minutes later, I hear some one throwing shit at my sliding door in the back, get up to check it out, and of course, half way back I realize it's the eggs blowing up, hahahahahahaha!!!! I mean, oh, shit, forget it, they were all over the kitchen.

ANYWAY, I sold a bunch of my shit today, mostly, I cut down on my exposure, I'm still exposed of course, I moved to break even on the rest of the stops, etc etc etc, I have no idea what they have in store for us next week, this could be the Obama blast off, we are sitting RIGHT THERE, on most of them, IE, just a little push, and we could be after those upper number's I talked about yesterday, or when ever.

I won't be adding back in on ANY THING, until we work off those ridiculous over bought readings on the 60min charts. What happens, USUALLY, is we get these stupid over bought things, and then we get a sharp and short correction to work them off, before going higher, that's when I may add back in. Of course, I can't do any thing with the Uggie's, as they lagged the market today, after leading it higher during the start of this pump.

6:45am: Futures are flat, which means they are DOWN, as they were all blowing up last night, the ES was up over 2% at one point. I guess they got a little upset at this, Semiconductor sales fall 9.8% , I don't know why they would get upset, they couldn't possibly have thought it was going to be GOOD!! We get the ISM this morning at 10ET, it's going to be the same thing, horrible, the good part is that we are in a sequence where all we can get, as far as SURPRISING news, would be GOOD news, IE, not as bad as thought.
Don't let any of the bull shiter's on the Street convince you we are "climbing the wall of worry", WE ARE NOT, as evidenced by the P/C above. The fact that the 10MA is below the November highs is really, REALLY, baaaaaaaaddd (those damn sheep), as we are in an area from which we usually get decline's, there is no fear in this market (either that, or complete APATHY).
Anyway, we are in a short term uptrend, and still in this huge range, so my personal plan will continue, add to my longs if we break out over the top of it, get out of Dodge if they decide to take us down, I think Marty Chenard mentioned last week that his indicators were saying the Insitutuion's appear to be looking to buy shares at much lower prices.
Good luck out there this year.