The....... "Triangle"

7:00pm: I've seen a lot of banter being thrown about, about the "Triangle", on the S&P, they even had it on the Street.com, stolen from Lind/Waldock. Naturally, when everyone and their brother's uncle is watching for some thing so obvious to happen, in this case, break out to the upside, it probably ain't gonna happen, BUT....................... it "could", maybe just not like everyone expects. I really like it when they set up 5 counts on them, the SPY has it, the number 1 count ALWAYS starts from the direction you enter into the triangle, it this case it was up. We had a very clear 2, then the 3, then a kind of convoluted 4. We are now working on the "5 count", wooooo hooooo...... I think! There's a couple of things that happen at the 5 point, we either go right up to it, and turn back, OR, we go through it a little, act like a break out, and then turn back down, usually a killer senario. OR, we could just go right through it, hmmmmm, I guess it's possible, but the sentiment stuff is sure not pointing to it, like I said yesterday, the STOCH is NOT over bought, but the RSI2 definitely is, meaning we could pull back first.
Well guess what, waaaaa laaaaaa, while everyone is watching the SPY, the Q's already did theirs:

The roach's did it almost perfectly, it had the same convoluted point 4, then went up and made a point 5, WITH, an over bought RSI2, and then pulled back down to the bottom trend line, to work off the over bought, before going up and finally breaking through it. I mean, that's text book, and is more than likely, the senario that would play out for the SPY. If we did go up and hit it, like, monday with the Tax Cheat telling us how he's going to save the banking industry at noon eastern time, I could see a sell the news, and a retreat back down to the bottom of the triangle, just like the Q's. What's really cool, is that a pull back like that, would also pull the Q's back with it, and set up a "back test" of the upper trend line.

One problem I see, naturally, is that with everyone looking for this, I could see the pull back, on the SPY, breaking down below the bottom trend line, which would just scare the shit out of everyone, and bring the doomsayer's out in force. I could see that senario, but if we broke below, and held that low from January 20, we could then move back up into the triangle, before fianlly breaking it to the upside, for a nice rally. I actually prefer this senario, as that would really get every one all upset, as we would grind around again, for awhile, and really get every one frustrated to no end. Of course, we "could" just blast right up through the top of it, YUCKO, I wouldn't like that to much, but, sigh, the markets gonna do wad it's gonna do.

2/6/09

What's with USO, it opened on it's 52 week low today, then closed up on it's biggest volume ever???

6:00pm: The SPY is interesting, the MACD histogram turned green, which, when you look to the left, it usually carries that forward for a while, either yea or nea. The STOCH is NOT over bought, but the RSI2 is definitely over bought, the Q's are actually at 97, which is a sell signal. If the SPY can get over that high from 8 days ago, it has, litteraly, clear air up to the 95 "area", just like the Q's up to 34. When I look at them, the DOW and IWM look just like the SPY. What I can see, IF, we don't get a huge sell the news on monday, from the "stimulus" package (WHICH, it NOW appears, won't be voted on until Sunday), OR, from the release of the TARP news from the tax evader running the Treasury, at noon on monday, IF, we don't sell the shit out of it, I could see us popping over that resistance, THEN, coming back to test it, to work the over bought on the RSI2, off. That could be a way to do it, and still, GO UP, OTHERWISE, if we DON'T get over that first resistance, and pull back, I wouldn't consider that GOOD, as we would probably go down to far, like, under yesterday's lows, which would negate the whole fricking setup. The cool part about this, is that we shall see, what we see.

I was listening to the Crudlow show tonight, and it's interesting, but one of the Senator's interviewed, admitted that the "stimulus" plan, has been renamed, to be a "SPENDING" plan, it seems minor, but there are BIIIIIGGGGG differences. It cracks me up, to hear some of the Democrap's doing the same thing that BTB is doing, making fear mongering speech's (they learned their lesson's from the Bushie administration well), IE, give me the fricking tttrrrriiilllioon dollars, or you are ALLLLLLL going to die tomorrow!!!! They keep talking about how the economy is falling off a cliff, and we have to absolutely pass this bill, NOW! IE, get it passed NOW, before anyone has a chance to really look into it, and see that there is hardly ANY THING in it, that is going to "STIMULATE", the economy!!! What bunch of shit. I've heard at LEAST, three Senator's, who have said, that if this thing is passed, there is NO way, that our GDP, in TEN YEAR's, will be higher than it is now, because of the unnecessary pork in it, THAT, because it is NOW a SPENDING BILL, those pork items will remain as mandated SPENDING items, FOREVER!!!

2:10pm: WOOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!!!!! I can't wait until the payroll report next month, gee minney criminey sake, if we lose 1,000,000 jobs this month, CAN YOU IMAGINE HOW MUCH THE MARKET WILL GO UP THEN!!!!!!!

Hey, whether ya love it or hate it, you can't argue with it, I'm in with 50% of my account, most every thing is set up in such a manner that I'm playing into April, with anticipation of being out in March. I have 21 positions, pretty evenly split between longs and shorts, and I also added back into some bonds in the Vanguard account.

Obviously, in SPITE of what I said about the payroll report, MOST of this is related to the "stimulus" bill posibbly being passed through the Senate tonight, and the anticipation of the release of the details of the next portion of the TARP welfare, supposedly to be released on Monday. I got my aaaaasssssss covered all over the place, in anticipation of a possible huge, SELL THE NEWS, maybe on monday.

No doubt, we are over bought and over loved, but we can stay that way for long periods of time. Looking at the 60min chart, I would be interested in adding my next lot of the Q's, if we pulled back to the red break out area, hopefully, the pull back dosn't come in one big bar, but a nice little meepey weepey type pull back, that sets up some kind of buy pattern in that area. Of interest on the daily chart, the Q's DID NOT get over that early January high, which will probably act as some resistance. Once we get above that, though, it's straight up to 34 (hopefully), at which point, IT WOULD BE A SELL THE FRICKING WORLD!!!! The SPY closed almost exactly on the 50 day moving average, and still has a ways to go, before hitting that major down trend line, which will probably act as heavy resistance.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls plunge 598,000, the most since 19748:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009 - By Rex NuttingWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The fury of the recession intensified in January, as the unemployment rate jumped to 7.6% while nonfarm payrolls fell by the largest amount in 34 years, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 598,000 in January after a revised loss of 577,000 in December. It's the largest payroll loss since December 1974. "Job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors," said Keith Hall, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Manufacturing saw its largest decline in 26 years. About 3.6 million jobs have been lost since the recession began just over a year ago; about half of them have been lost in the past three months following the collapse of Lehman Bros.""

Hmmmm, another one of those "worse since" things, this time since 1974. That is kind of a KEY year, as what happened was, we had another 8 years of an absolute shit market, until we finally recovered into a new bull, in 1982. Now, I had the whisper number above 700K, so it is ACTUALLY, less than expected, BUT, what they don't tell you in that little statement from MarketWatch (which is owned by Da Street of course), is that December was revised HIGHER, by 300K, putting it close to a million.

Now, the reaction, was the third bar in from the right side, on the five minute chart at the top. What they did was, they took out the low's of the premarket, that shows up in the white tail under that bar, the reaction was the same on the over night chart of the ES. This tell's me, that they had more trader's betting LONG, than short, as they took out their stops, as they went below the last low before the close last night, and THEN, turned it around and took it higher, trying to get them to chase it, after suffering seller's remorse. I was going to BUY into it, but I'm going to wait until after the open, my thought is, is that if we crawl UP into the open, I would expect a sharp sell off after the REAL open. Just a thought.

I put up a couple of sentiment charts, that aren't looking to hot, in my personal opinion. The bottom chart is the advancing issues in the Q's. One thing I've noticed that's been pretty consistent, is that when we get over 90% of the Dog's advancing on that daily chart, it usually leads to a sell off, it happened seven days ago, at the January highs, at the December highs, at the November highs, etc etc etc. The way it works on the positive side, is if you look right in Mid January, when we made the January lows, the next day we had a spike over 90%, which led to a rally. We don't have that setup right now, all we are doing is slowly climbing back up into over bought conditions.

The other chart, in the middle, is the Put/Call ratio, it's going the exact OPPOSITE, of what you want to see. Here we are, sitting just off the January lows, and yet the P/C is at low levels, level's that are usually associated with TOP's, IE, despite all the bull shit being spouted by Bubble Vision and the rest of the Street media tard heads, about all this fear, and the market is climbing the proverbial wall of worry, the fact of the matter is, is that there is NO FEAR, OR WORRY!!! It's actually an Alfred E. Neuman market.

Good luck out there today.

2/5/09

8:30pm: If there was ever any doubt about why I watch Bloomberg, rather than Bubble Vision, these two tapes tell the EXACT story, http://charlesnenner.com/inc_files/2009-02-03-cn-bloomberg.wmv , that of course, is the Oracle of Wall Street, Charles Nenner, giving his cycle projections on February 3rd. When you go to the site, DON'T do the top interview with Pimm Fox first, do the one with the idiots from CNBC, from earlier in the day, first, just underneath it. I mean, my God, is that guy from CNBC drunk, or WHAT???!! What an idiot, and the girl has no idea about what he's, TRYING, to talk about. I say, TRYING, because they never give him a chance, to even remotely try and explain what he's doing, they are to busy trying to fluff him off, and basically make fun of him. When you see the Bloomberg interview, you find out, Waaaa Laaaa, that he worked for the number one trader's (I SWEAR, I'll break those SOB's one of these days) and investment house in the World, Goldman Sach's, for 12 years, before stiking out on his own, when he realized he could make a lot more money being an independent advisor, to Insitutions. In case YOU don't know what he's trying to say, he's basically saying we make a temporary bottom on either February 6 or 9th, and then a major bottom on February 26-27, before like a 20% rally into mid March, when you want to get the hell out of Dodge, as he think's we start back down then. Whether you believe or not, matter's NOT, the cool part is, is he has the balls to go on TV, and tell it like he see's it.

7:30pm: I just wanted to mention, BAC has "some thing", going on. They've had huge volume the last two days, and put on a VERY interesting bottoming candle, with a green top today. I mean, I wouldn't want to be an "investor" in this thing (disclaimer: like I am), but this could be good for some change.
The markets just amaze me, I mean, I have NO fricking idea, if we are going up 20%, or DOWN 20%. The Q's are on the verge, AGAIN, of breaking over the top side of the "Triangle", while the SPY, is on the verge of breaking under it. The DIA have already broke "UNDER" it, while the IWM leans more to the SPY side of it. I've been spending most of my time in the Pristine room's during the latest trial period, tomorrow I'll make a point, to start looking at some sentiment charts I have on TS, and see if I can see any thing. At this point, I don't think the damn payroll report means a damn thing, Da Boyz are going to move us in which ever direction they can, to hurt as many as they can, I have no idea if it's up, or down.

2:05pm: HAH! You think that TICK bar at the bottom, is showing a little, aaaaahhhhh, indecision, before the payroll number tomorrow, hahahahaha! Hell, it had more fuzzy tails than a buck at a deer convention. It was all over the place the last hour, going from -1000 to +1000, as "players" position themselves ahead of it.

The 60min shows the Q's, after the dumb ass run up, basically struggled the rest of the day, at yesterday's high. It did try to pop over it with a little more than an hour left in the day, but it resulted in a breakout failure.

On the daily, the Q's are right back to the top of the range, hhhhmmmmm, let's see, they had pretty awful news last night, and this morning, and proceeded to do a moon shot, HELL, if the payroll report is REALLY shitty tomorrow, they may do a fricking Mar's shot!! In all seriousness, though, if they can get over this level, like, today's high's, it's pretty much clear air up to that 34 "area", once we get over the high from early January. The SPY just continues to walk right along that bottom trend line, now, that "coooould" be good, as it hasn't broken under it, YET, but of course, today makes six test's of that line, and you know they old saying, throw the bit and let the damn horse run where it wants!!!! Oop's, I meant to say, the more it test's support, the more likely it is to break it. Wad ever, nice saying anyway.

10:15am: I'm having a pretty good day today, my systems are firing on all cylinders, those two systems are "luck" and "stupidty", hahahahahahaha!! I did some thing totally out of charater at the open, I just went for it, long the Q's (verwy small positions), if there was a "reason", it was to swing the saddle and shake me up some what, plus, I have been noticing a penchant for the Q's, the last week or two, to just take off higher on gap downs (not all the time of course). Regardless, it worked, I took the first half on the fifth bar in for 15 cents, and let the second half go on a break even stop. We never really challenged the lows, and I exited the second half when we hit that white trend line on the 15min chart at the top, that trend line is the upper trend line you see on the daily charts. Very nice morning. Right now we are struggling to get over the high of yesterday.

The XLF at the bottom was interesting, it set up a semi modified "trap door", modified because it went one bar to long on the drop, I like to see a three to five bar continuation out of the chute. Besides that, this was an EXTREMELY dicey area, it dosn't show up on that chart, but over to the left we were UNDER the bar from nine days ago, and we basically had nothing but clear air under where we were at the low, not a good time to be bottom fishing. What I did do, was take some partials on my hedgies. so when we got the blast off, I started looking to add back in to the hedgies, so when we got the gap fill, and up into a congestion area above it, I went to add to them, and when I looked at my Trade Manager, a splooch of green caught my eye, and low and behold, I had taken a long call position in the XLF! That's how well my concentration is going these days, the pain was really bad this morning, and I had forgotten all about it. My hedgies have been working pretty well, and rather than take them off, I decided to counter them with some calls yesterday (half), needless to say, I took some of them off.

Funnymentally, the rumor that is driving the XLF up, comes from word on the floor that the SEC is going to eliminate mark-to-market for the banks. Funnymentally for the Q's, is that they are an absolute peice of unbeliveable shit, and this pump is the biggest peice of crap I have ever seen!! But, SIGH and ALAS, they are going up, obviously. But the CONCEPT that they are driving us up, BEFORE the payroll report tomorrow morning before the open, stinks to high hell to me. There is not a chance in hell I'll be holding the Q's into that thing.

2/4/09

2:05pm: We were moving along just all honkey dorey type stuff, when BTB came out, while, I might add, he was approving the increase that congress wants in their stipends, for erasers and pencils, to $93K a year, and said he was going to solve all the banks problems, stop the depression dead in it's tracks, and stimulate growth, by limiting executive pay, wooooo hoooooo!!! That't it, that's the great package!!!! We probably wouldn't have gone down on that news by itself, but word immediately got out, that 300+ banking executives immediately submitted letters of resignation, while they were filling out their forms for government jobs (to join all their Goldman buddies that are already there), as the government is OBVIOUSLY paying more. THEN, Volker came out, and said whoaaaaaaa, hold on, WE have the PLAN to solve all our problems, we are going to increase regulation of hedge funds and private equity funds, force them to provide more transparency, and increase their capital requirements, woooooo hooooo, that'll do it!!!!! Oh, YEA, he also said commercial banks shouldn't invest in risky assets, hahahahahahahahahaha, no fricking shit gomer!!!!

Anyway, my "investment" holding period immediately dropped from 10 minutes to 5 minutes, hahahahahahahaha, there ain't a stinking chance in hell I'd be buying the strongest index, the Q's, ahead of the John Chambers confessional after the close. We took out the entire dumb ass 60min bar that started the day, so it's back to ground zero, and starting over. Personally, I'd just ignore that big old uuuugiillyy looking double top up there, and buy the shit out of em. And OH, YEA, if this holds up into tomorrow, that SPY daily chart is setting up an almost perfect avalanche setup.

Good luck to "you".

10:00am: I'm posting this intraday, as I'm slow right now, and I want to remind me of a few things I have in my "plan", and why I have them there. I've been hanging out in the Pristine rooms on their latest trial period, yesterday I was in the stock room all day, today I decided to check out the Emini's room, to see if Sysin was dominating it. Speaking of Sysin, he left a note in the comment's area last night, about how disgusted he was at this, http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/blame-the-short-sellers/ , personally, I find nothing unusual at all about it, I think I've just given up on the unbelievable number of crooks and skunks on Da Street, and I think I've just become kind of jaded toward the whole bunch.

Anyway, this is a "mental" thing post, as I've been struggling, my concentration has been shit, I'm hurting, pysically, and it's not helping matters. Anyway, I feel a little better, hahahahaha! The room started out with one moderator, and he had to leave, so another one took over, we'll call him Kurt just for arguement's sake. Now, the other guy sat on his hands during the blast off this morning, so Kurt had to take over basically when we were already in the midst of a "consolidation" of the run up, so he was at a disadvantage right off the bat. It also dosn't help matters, that he is related to the owner of the place, everyone knows this, so there he sits, in this room full of a couple of hundred "trader's", who are paying hundred's of dollars a month, for him to make a call, and make them some big bucks for the day, so they can go to the beach. Now, I bring this up, because number one, Kurt is really terrific, he does a great job, blah blah blah, BUT, you have to imagine the internal pressure he's putting on himself, to make the room some money, especially after they sat through that blast off, where they could have picked up probably a month of income. So, with that in mind, this is what happens, and what my thought process was when he made the call, keep in mind, this is just for my own records and disgestion.

So, what he starts looking for, is an upper level consolidation on the 15min chart, to set up a "continuation" move, to the upside, Ok, that's cool. Now, when you look at the black 15min chart, the call was made two bars after the bar that I have the white arrow on, when the bar started to move over the previous bar, that had a very nice bottoming tail on it, it's actually a nice setup, and "should" have worked. But the point is, is the bar at the white arrow, and why I think he was under some internal pressure, because he went directly against, one of their standard set up's, and that's the BOF, or Break Out Failure. That bar broke out, to new highs of the day, AND, over the previous highs from five days ago, on that 60min chart, and then closed down in the lower one third of the bar, IE, it failed. Not only that, but the 60min chart was showing the same thing, a very clear BOF with a huge topping tail, I mean, to my way of thinking, that had short written all over it, and another thing that was interesting, is that one of the older members, who trades the Q's, went directly against him, going short. A couple of other little minor things I would add, was that it was showing signs of a developing "rounded top" on the 15min, PLUS, it appeared to be failing right at the R2 level. Now, I'm only telling myself this story, to make me feel a little better, as even the best of them, can some times let a subconcious feeling, get in the way of their common sense. This brings up that if I find I am having trouble making good trades, rather than looking at what the patterns and setup's I'm taking are, I need to think more about what my "true" thought process was, at the time of the trade.

Another thing I want to mention to myself, is that I had the TRIN pegged right, in my personal opinion. They had an agrument in the room about the relatively high TRIN, in the 110-120 area. There was a couple of comments about how the TRIN is not reliable anymore, because there are now so many penny stocks in the NYSE, like C and BAC, excuse me a second (hahahahahahahahahahaha), that are getting huge volume, and warping the usefullness of the TRIN. Well, wad ever, but if you just use it the way I always did, it was still working, in my personal opinion. The reason I felt it was high, was I felt the "players" were using the pump, to sell into, not that they were bearish or trying to short it, but to just sell into it, sit back, and see if "other's" would use a pull back to buy into it (the "other's", being the idiot's like me). This was confirmed, at least to me, when the TRIN actually went DOWN, when we pulled back. This means, as far as I'm concerned, that I can still view it as a sort of divergence indicator, not to trade off of, but just to add or subtract a little to the thought process in what ever setup I'm looking at.

Oh, by the way, I forgot to mention, that one of the reason's I think I'm getting so jaded over the crooks on the street, is they are being overwhelmed by the number of crooks that are our servants, some times called public employee's, or the Civil Service corp's, which the British started, to employ the unemployable. In my personal opinion, Barrack the Builder is treading on thin ice here, I know I said I would give him six month's to prove he could bring some integrity back into the White House, after those slime bags were finally kicked out, but so far, it's not proving to be the case. Now, I don't blame Geithner and Daschle, they are flat out crooks, and immoral bastards, and can't help themselves, although I give Daschle a lot of credit for doing the correct thing, and withdrawing. But, where's Obama????? I mean, the minute that it came out that Geithner was a crook, and EVEN WORSE, if he isn't a crook, but is so fricking STUPID that he can't even figure out how to do his own tax's, why in the hell, should he be running the damn Treasury Department??? Obama should have immediately, IMMEDIATELY, withdrawn the nomination, and found someone else. And another thing, where in the hell was he, when Congress presented the Pelosi Democratic welfare package, in the guise of a "stimulus" package??? Didnit he sit on national TV and say, EMPHATICALLY, that he would not accept any pork in the package??? Didn't he say that???? My god, that thing was nothing BUT, fricking PORK, why didn't he immediately condemn it??? Come on Barrack, start picking it up a little bit here.

2/3/09

2:10pm: Q's looking very strong, although they did get rejected at the 30 level, going into the close. The good part, is if we can get through that 30 level, there's not a whole hell of a lot of resistance between here and the prior highs, on 1/28. We are over bought, so we could get a quick sharp pull back, to work it off first, before making another assault on it. A pull back, that comes back and sit's on that green 50% retracement line, in the 29.50 "area", would, in my personal opinion, be just about perfect, I shall see.

The SPY is much weaker, and if it dosn't get it's ass in gear, is in danger of setting up an avalanche, it would have to close over that blue MA to break the pattern, the IWM is showing the same setup.

The TLT took another hit today, and is getting more attractive to me, ESPECIALLY, since I am still trading like DOG SHIT!! I'm in imminent danger of taking some time off, to try and get my fricking act together, before I ruin my attitude. That happen's, I've been through it many times, I just need one decent trade to get back in the groove again. My thought process is all right, IE, I'm seeing the correct setup's and patterns, but I'm making shitty entries and exit's on the execution, IE, some thing seems to be wrong with the mouse. Oh well, I'll change meece's, maybe that'll do it, hahahahahaha!

Good luck.

2/2/09

2:05pm: Welp, Toni Hansen mentioned in her only update for the week, that there could be a possibility of a weekly 2B setting up (a 2B, for those that don't know, is a double bottom, the difference being that you break the previous lows first), hahahahahaha, I'll bet she didn't think the Q's would do it by one lousy stinking penny!!! The Q's opened along with the rest of the market with the premarket dump, and then immediately dropped a penny to take out last week's lows, and then proceded to rally for the first hour, consolidating for the rest of the day, before rallying into the close, stopping right at that green 50% retracement line, of the November highs and lows, and selling off the last 15 minutes. Now, wad ever, I can't believe that the whole dump this morning was a stop run by Da Boyz, I mean, what kind of idiot would put a weekly stop, one fricking penny, under last week's lows??????

The daily is a lot more interesting, both the Q's and SPY opened up on, and HELD, that bottom trend line of "the triangle", I didn't put the count on it, but we are on the "FIVE" point with the touch this morning, USUALLY, we break THROUGH the trend line on the FIVE point, and THEN rally up. Of course, all this does, is keep us inside the triangle, meaning, more range bound crap, until we finally break out, one way or Da udder. Of mild interest, the XLF actually held the rally into the close.

7:22am: AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING, I won't be getting back into bonds, until the TLT get's back into the 90-95 area, http://www.mrswing.com/articles/Clean_ABC_on_TLT_Bond_Fund.html , this is totally screwing up any chances of implementing my asset allocation plans.

7:15am: I bring this up, http://www.mrswing.com/articles/U_S_Morning_Call_for_Monday_February_2_2009.html
because you read down a few paragraphs, and he talks about the earnings for the S&P 500 being down 35%, well, IF YOU REMEMBER, I was yakking all summer long, into the fall, about the ridiculous estimates being put out by the salesmen on Da Street, some times called "Analyst", and they were projecting some thing like a 65% INCREASE in earnings in the fourth quarter. NOW, they do this, so they can send the salesmen out to Bubble Vision and the rest of them, and proclaim how "CHEAP", the market is, hahahahahahahahahaha, fricking roach's!!! I bring this up, because, as I am wont to do in the winter, locked up, I watch the Bloomberg ticker go by at the bottom of the screen, ALL WEEKEND, waiting for it to move. ANYWAY, Bloomberg, on the weekends, run's a little analysis of the S&P on the bottom ticker, and they are showing the current P/E at 19.59!!!! What's happening, is the further the markets drop, the damn P/E keeps getting worse, rather than better. Since we all know that bull markets don't start, until the P/E on the S&P get's to single digits, and the dividend yield hits double digits, the S&P has to fall by 50% from HERE, to get to those levels.

6:30am: The markets are seeing their shadows this morning, down an average of 1.7%, Q's down about 46 cents, as Europe and Asia were weak with banks taking a hit, February is starting off by backing up it's reputation as the worst month of the year in the markets, ALTHOUGH, what usually happens is that January is an UP month, and we rest and pull back in February after digesting earnings the prior month, then we start to climb higher into the next earnings season in April. With January being the worst ever on record, February "could", be setting up a surprise, aaaahhhhh, excuse me a second (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!), whew, I feel better after getting that out.
We get a shit pile of economic reports this week, starting off with the ISM this morning at 10 ET, and ending with the monthly payroll report on friday. The reports are all supposed to be baaaaaaaadddd (damn sheep!!) of course, which everyone and their brother's uncle's all know, THEREFORE, the only reactions that will mean anything, at this point in the cycle, is positive reactions to the shitty news, or, the shitty news getting less so. The over riding news that will keep the markets holding their breath, will be the anticipation of the "Bad Bank" news out of the administration, you can see how the banks reacted last week on the rumor that one was going to be created, that proved false. Also, we may get more news out about the NON-stimulus package, which is more of a welfare package for big government, did you see where congress voted themselves a $90+ increase in their yearly stipend package??? They bitch about the CEO's, and then turn around and act the same way. And speaking of the crooks, it's turning out that most of them actually are REAL crooks, as they all seem to be income tax evader's, hahahahahaha!!!

Ivica has soom wonderful looking picks this week, http://www.mrswing.com/articles/Watch_list_for_21.html .

As I'm writing, the futures, in the form of the ES, are trying to hold a double bottom at 808, I anticipate they hold it, and try and get the shorts covering into the open, the SPY, right NOW, is projecting to open at 81.24, which is UNDER the December lows, the lows of last week are 80.05, which will be the focal point, the low for the Q's was 27.96, they are currently way above that at 28.62.