3/26/09

7:15PM: Captain Kirk has his link post out, http://www.thekirkreport.com/ , AND I EXPECT YOU TO READ EVERY FRICKING ONE OF THEM BEFORE THE OPEN TOMORROW!!!!!


6:30pm: ANYWAAAAAAY, were in a NEW BULL MARKET, WOOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!!!!!! I know so, because, OBVIOUSLY, I must have watched the Crudlow show tonight, hahahahahaha!!!! That, of course, is defined by a 20% rise off the absolute BOTTOM, so, what Larry was saying to me, YOU DID BUY THAT EXACT BOTTOM, RIGHT, YOU DUMB BASTARD!!!!!????? HEY, FU!!!! ANYWAAAAAAAY, the whole thing cracks me up. NUMBER ONE, we haven't even made a higher high yet, for god's sake, we're on a V bottom type thing, we didn't leave any pivots on the way DOWN, and we don't have any pivots on the way UP, so, I have to work with what I have, and what I have is, we made a lower LOW in early March, and have YET, to make a higher high. We would have to get over the late January, early February highs, to make a HIGHER HIGH. If we stop short of those, and turn down, that still, IS A LOWER HIGH!!!! HOWEVER (the infamous HOWEVER), we COULD, turn down, like, HERE, go down for awhile, and then make a NEW HIGHER PIVOT LOW, and turn up, and take out the CURRENT high, and then be in an uptrend. In other words, we could do it, without taking out those highs, but we would first have to have, SIGH, some thing called a PULL BACK, that makes a PIVOT low. Those two lousy little red bars, ARE NOT A PIVOT LOW!!!! ALTHOUGH, like I said, a break over that previous high could have been taken for a TRADE.
ANYWAAAAAAAY, I'm not seeing a damn thing, other than SOME BODY is pumping the shit out of this thing, at the end of the quarter. MARKETS DO "NOT", GO STRAIGHT UP FOREVER (oh god, maybe this time really is different). Don't be shocked when we get a pull back. My buddy Sysin may be counting on it a little, aaaaaaahhhhh, early, but HEY, I'm with ya buddy!!!! By the by, da NasDogs, some times called Da Q's, are right on the verge of actually making a NEW HIGH, they just need to get over that 31.68 "area", and BINGO, we could make a NEW HIGH, WOOOOHOOOO! All they have to do then, is pull back, and make a HIGHER LOW, and then TAKE OUT the new HIGHS, and we could actually be in an UPTREND, hahahahahaha! It just cracks me up, god what a bunch of bull shit comes out of Bubble Vision and the rest of them. They're already talking about the "RECOVERY", ahahhahahahaha, my god, didn't they call it that, "THE RECOVERY", for eight fricking years during the Bushie Years?????
One last little note, I never look at OBV or Accumulation/Distribution, but, what the hell is with THAT???? We had a MUCH larger surge off of the November low's, than we've had on this MUCH LARGER RUN UP!! IS SOME BODY LYING HERE, OR WHAT??????

This one will open as a link, unlike the one below, I have no idea why. You still can't see it, I guess I have to make it bigger.

2:10PM: If we are ever going to pull back, we may be coming up on that moment, we are approaching the old highs from 2/10 at 31.68, every thing is very over bought going into them, we will undoubtedly hit them tomorrow, which, naturally, is going to be my interest point of the day, and probably the week. If we get through that, we probably attack the old highs at 120.50, from 2000, in short order.
The McClellan exited it's long trade today, for a gain of 44 cents, way to go McCell!!! It's next trade will be a short.

7:00am: Futures are up about 1%, but were much higher before the release of the fianl GDP and weekly payroll reports:
8:30 a.m.
U.S. 4Q corporate profits down 16.5%, biggest drop since '53
8:30 a.m.
U.S. 4Q business investment falls 21.7%, most since 1975
8:30 a.m.
U.S. 4Q consumer spending falls 4.3%, most since 1980
8:30 a.m.
U.S. 4Q final sales fall 6.2%, lowest since 1980
8:30 a.m.
U.S. 4Q GDP lowest since 1982
8:30 a.m.
U.S. 4Q GDP revision better than -6.7% expected
8:30 a.m.
U.S. 4Q GDP revised down to -6.3% vs. -6.2%

8:30 a.m.
U.S. 4-week avg ongoing claims up 123,750 to record 5.33 mln
8:30 a.m.
U.S. ongoing jobless claims rise 122,000 to record 5.56 mln

That's a LOT of "worst since" and "record" stuff, ain't it, but it doesn't bother the Wall Street cheerleader's at MarketWatch, INDICATIONsBrightening signs lift U.S. stocks .

ANYWAY, just when I start to think that I'm the only conspiracy nut left in the world, waaaa laaaaa, some body pop's up to make me feel better, PETER BRIMELOW Rattled by the roiling rally . Here's the gist of it:
"First the bad news: In his comment after the market close, Dennis Slothower of Stealth Stocks Daily explicitly cited Wednesday's last-hour rescue rally as cause for caution.
He wrote: "The intervention we are seeing in the markets right now is blatant and strong -- apparently hoping to convince J.Q. Public that the train is leaving the station. There is a strong and concerted effort by the Fed, the administration and their cooperatives to paint this tape higher and higher, without any pull back.
He continued: "The normal process of backing and filling has not been allowed to take a normal course, possibly out of fear that it will get out of hand and seriously challenge the new bear market low set on March 6th -- just a few weeks ago."
Slothower's point: "This kind of intervention often ends badly though, as no selling relief leads to a pressure point where eventual selling erupts into a volatile profit taking decline over a day or two that can quickly remove weeks of gains."
I've been interested in market manipulation and last-hour rallies for a long time. ( See Sept. 9, 2005 column. See June 27, 2002 column.)
But I'm a crank. Slothower is a serious performer who was also one of the few strong money-makers during the Crash of 2008. ( See March 12 column.) And the Hulbert Financial Digest shows him flat through February, while the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 was down 17.72%. "

Couldn't have said it better myself, especially the part about trying to suck in J.Q. Public, or Mom and Pop's as I call them.

3/25/09

7:11pm: Anatomy of a bull market, hahahahahahaha! 1 is an actual rise in the market, shit, is, a, hmmmm, let me think, oh yea, that's a shit side ways day, and pull back, is a, aaaaaaahhhhh, PULL BACK!!!! So, we got the pull back today, so tomorrow, beyond any and all doubt, will be an UP day, and then back to the SHIT on friday, and pull back on monday. This market is so stinking easy, it's unbelieveable.

2:10PM: Buy, Buy, Buy, hahahahahaha!!!!! I have no idea what was going on, but they were allllll excited this morning, I was watching the 60min chart, and what I was watching was, we made a new high, above mondays highs, then we pulled back down under it, on the first candle, IE, failed break out, then we took it out again, on the second 60min candle, and again, came back down under it, IE, failed break out, both of them are inside the circle, then that candle closed red, and I started watching the five minute charts, that's two hours into the day.

I tried to short it right at the first arrow on the left, that was as nice a little bear flaggey avalanche I'd seen, it actually went positive for a couple of candles, then took me out a few candles later. Sooooo, naturally, we start breaking down after they take me out, hahahahaha, so I'm all pissed off, so I'm watching, we break down under the lows, and then set up that three bar flag that stops under the 16ema, and we start breaking under it, so I try it again, at the second arrow, waaaa laaaaaa, it works this time, woooo hoooo. I took half off at the third arrow, then exited on the inside green bar at the last arrow, a little early, naturally.

We absolutely blasted off when we hit the lower trend line on the 60min, which is the 200ma on the 15min. chart. I heard the sell off was because of the lower reception to the bond auctions, wad ever.

I've seen that pattern on the daily candles before, I just can't remember where, or when, red hamari, followed by a long tailed red doji hanging man type looking candle, I'm sure it's good, especially since it's in over bought conditions, really, I'm sure of it (who knows what they are going to fricking do, that was quite a finish). One good thing is we did work some of the over

bought off the 60min, so, who knows.

3/24/09

6:00pm: I'm working, yea yea, I dream about the markets when I'm sleeping, anyway, I'm about to go to sleep, because BTB is talking, and I'm rapidly falling asleep, with the sameo sameo bull shit, WERE GOING TO DO WHAT EVER IT TAKES, TO SOLVE THE ECONOMIC CRISIS, hahahahahahahaha, yeeeeeaaaaa, meaning he's going spend as much of our tax money on those slimey Wall Street bastard's as it takes, waaaaaad ever! Anyway, don't read anymore, I'm talking to myself here.

I REALLY LIKE, the SPY, or S&P, way more than the Q's, my trading vehicle of course, is the SSO, it moves the same amount of points, almost, as the SPY (it moves that much in the wrong direction to, hahahahahaha). The Q's (I'm talking about the daily chart's here), look like dog shit to me, I just don't SEE any thing on them. Now, the SPY, now, that looks interesting. What interest's me, besides the chart, is all the chatter about them, and the levels they are talking about. Looking at the chart, at the top, we stopped RIGHT AT, the gap fill from early February, cool stuff. Now, what I WANT (good luck on that one, hahahaha), is a pull back. I posted the Justin Mamis Investor cycle chart back here, http://cluelessqtrader.blogspot.com/2009/03/31009.html , NOW, IF, this rally has been a climbing the wall type of worry thingey (I don't think so, but wad do I know), then a pull back would be the Investor Aversion cycle, or scardey cat period. Now, every one and their brother's uncle is looking at the 741 level in the SPX, or 71.40 on the SPY. I COULD SEE (when I'm not blind drunk of course), a pull back that goes down to that 741 level, and then, TAKES IT OUT. THAT, would be really cool, as it scares the absolute behebbies shit out of every one, and shake's them out. THEN, we turn around, and start going up. That's the layout on the arrow I have on the top chart.

OK, so THEN, once we get back above yesterday's high's, I think we probably go, BUT, a disclaimer here, we have HUGE resistance from above yesterday's high, up to about 87.50, that's called a CONGESTION area, and very obvious it is. ONCE, or more likely IF, we get through that, then we have virtually nothing between there and those previous highs around 92.50.

My main problem is that damn STOCH, it's so fricking over bought it's scary, BUT, if we get the pull back, it would work that off, like, maybe down to the 50% level, much like the late December pull back, that did it.

Of course, that's what I want, which mean's I probably won't get it, more than likely, we probably turn around (on turn around wednesday, just before turn around thursday, before we end the week with turn around friday) and go back through yesterday's high's. SIGH, if we do that, well, I'm probably going to take it, IE, long, as much as I will be kicking myself in the ass for doing it. One thing that could work in favor of a long trade, is we have the end of the quarter coming up, and if we get back above yesterday's highs, and start moving up, fund manager's are going to get the holy beggebies scared out of them, of missing the move, and may pile in, to get some gain's on their books, before the end of the quarter.

Anyway, that's kind of what I'm thinking.

5:30pm: Alan Farley has started a blog, http://hardrightedge.com/daily/ , it's pretty short, but provides some information, I'll be adding him to the links. His book was probably the first trading book I ever read (red, wred???), and I would still recommend it to anyone.

2:20: Hmmm, I forgot the 60min, it's starting to get a rounded top look to it, and if that's the case, AND, they are serious about a little pull back here, we "could" be after the gap fill from Friday's close, at 29.18. We "may" find some support at that 50ma, or the uptrend line around 29.50, we shall see. We will definitely be a little over sold if we get to those areas.

We actually got two trade's off the McClellan the last two days, we got a buy after the open yesterday that sold at the close for a 78 cent gain, then a short at the open this morning, that covered at the close, for a whooping 13 cent gain, woooo hooooo!! The next trade will be a long, I sure as hell hope we go down before it triggers, if we open up tomorrow morning, it may trigger a long, which I "probably" will not take.

2:10pm: If I heard it once, I must have heard it a hundred times today, it's sooooooo good, that we only went down as little as we did, as it's showing great relative strength, that we didn't dump after a 7% up day yesterday! Well, yeeeeeeaaaa, BUT, I could swear, SWEAR, I heard the same thing, after every one of those previous 5-6% up days we had the last six months. EVERY new down trend starts with the first down tick on a 1 second chart.

Anyway, we are a looooong way, from a trend change, on the larger time frames at least. The 5min is currently in a down trend, starting at about 2:30pm ET when we made a lower high, and then confirmed it with a lower low about 30 minutes later, even though for the day it was basically flat. I did manage to pick up a little short in that circle, when we set up a very dinky looking avalanche, after a down thrust bar that took out 3 MA's, with the MA's starting into a bow tie. It also had a King-Queen-King candle setup, the take was under the King on the right. I didn't get much out of it, I exited on the doji inside bar at the arrow. The difference between the avalanche and the three bar setup 25minutes earlier, was the down sloping 16ema, and the head poke and failure of the right side King candle. Wad ever, I should have hung on to it, obviously.

Going into the dump the last 15minutes, we now have a confirmed down trend on the 15min chart, as our high of the day, at just about 2 ET, was a lower high than the closing high from yesterday, IE a lower high, and then going into the close, we took out the lows of the day, IE, a lower low. The 15min also looks like it is starting to bow tie through the 50ma, so if we gap down in the morning, and get the MA's going down, I will be looking to short the first rally back up to underneath the bow tied MA's. We "should" find some support at that little low from yesterday, at about 30.11, of course, if we go down that far, I know they just love to test whole numbers, so I could see them going down to 30.

All of this means diddly fricking squat anyway, they probably gap us up 20% tomorrow after BTB get's done yakking tonight.

3/23/09

6:15pm: I don't pay much attention to the VIX, when they changed the rules on it, and made it "better", I stopped watching it, because it means they are screwing with me, wad ever. Even though this is the OLD VIX symbol, it's actually the NEW VIX, roach's. ANYWAY, it's got me wondering what's going on here, by any stretch of the imagination the VIX "should" have dumped down into the 30's, at a MINIMUM, during the run up the last two weeks. I find today especially "interesting", as it actually dumped down to the 200dma, which it should have, for god's sake, with a 7% rally. But what it did, was dump and then rally back up, and it's sitting exactly where it was, NINE days ago. Some thing is amiss here, I mean, looking at the two charts, the NYSE is obviously over bought, and a sell, or at least sitting in cash for a better opportunity, while the VIX is showing sign's of being a buy. There's a couple of thing's I'm thinking, one, the fear level is staying consistent, while the market rally's, which is GOOD, it means people don't believe in it, and are buying put's, which they will cough up if, or when, the market continues to rally. The other thought is, the BIG BOYS are using the rally, to pick up cheaper put's, to cover their butt's when the rally ends. The BIG BOYS could be Insitutions like Fidelity and the like, who use their client's money, to short the market against them, or at the least, in this case, use it to buy put's, to cover themselves while the next pull back starts.

Regardless, it's an interesting situation, the VIX should have definitely dumped, and having not done so, is telegraphing some thing.

Of those shorts I posted yesterday, the following are still interesting, AG,BTU,APA,BOH,DD,CMA,WFMI,CREE AND WES. Actually, they may be a "better"short than before, as they've all rallied back up to their prior highs from three days ago, reducing the stop point on them. They all rallied with the market, and are now back at resistance, should they break over those highs of three days ago, naturally, they are NOT a short, but should they, like, wallow around tomorrow, and then start down again on wednesday, well, that's another animal.

Hmmmmmm, I could swear, SWEAR, that from day one, I said I'm a SELLER of options, I don't buy the stupid fricking things, http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/21768 .

2:10pm: We gained about 6% across the boards, the Q's closed just about on that high from early February 13 at 30.78, once we get through that it's pretty much clear sailing to the February 10 highs at 31.68. Some what surprisingly to me, we had about 10 new lows for the year, for every new high for the year. The A/D's sat at about the 10 to 1 level for most of the day on the NYSE, the NasDogs were almost 6 to 1 on the upside. Volume was just under the 50 day average, but still pretty good for a monday. Some of that may be related to this being a religious rally, that is, faith based.

The only good thing I like about this, is we are now solidly back above the 50dma on the Q's, the SPY actually got over it as well. I bring this up, because most of the "systems" work best when we get pull backs, when we are above the 50dma.

You actually got 30 cents if you shorted it right at the open, the first 15min., after that it was all to the upside. To say we are over bought on the daily and most intraday time frames is, well, beyond obvious, but, sigh, we can stay that way for loooooongg periods of time. There's obviously no reason NOT to be long, it's just that when we get these kind of conditions, the pull back can be pretty sharp and quick. Only two stocks in the Dogs were red today, JAVA and ORLY, very over bought conditions. Anyway, good luck to you all.

7:00am: We are gapping up about 2.5%, I'm "probably" going to sell some way out of the money Q calls after the open. This guy says the low in the S&P this week will be 741, http://www.verticalsolutions.com/forecasts.html , and this guy tells you exactly what the S&P will do every day, http://www.chartsedge.com/ , be long until the end of wednesday, and then short the shit out of it thursday and friday. Sounds good to me.

3/22/09 For monday

7:30pm: Futures are gapping up preeeeeetty big right now, over 1%, a lot of it is attributed to Da Government acting like a slime bag stock outfit, and coming out with new's on Friday, after the post market closed, that being that "Timmy" will be coming out with a "plan" this week, to try and unload the "toxic" asset's on some stupid private firms, willing to buy them, hahahahahahahaha, yea, rrrriiiiiigggggghhhhtttt, grab ahold of your wallet, before you see how much this will cost "US".
Anyway, a day or two of up day's would actually work in better for those short's I posted below, as it gives me a chance to see how they react, when the general market goes up, should they "test" some of those prior highs that sit right to the left of where they are now, IE, if they test the prior highs from a couple of days ago, and then fail, that would be a cool setup.

The Second American Revolution , We The People Stimulus Package , naturally I'm contributing to them. I bring them up, because when I was watching Bloomberg to see what the futures were doing, they were rerunning some of the weekend show's, mostly like the Sunday morning "Meet The Press" type stuff, when the true perpetrator's of the economic collaspe were being interviewed, like Blarney Frank and DickHead Dodd, who were asleep at the switch, basking in their million's of dollars of contributions from the Financial, and Wall Street, Industries, and taking their sweet deal's on their home loans from outfit's like CountryWide. I mean, when you actually listen to them, they are the most HILARIOUS people I have ever heard, as all the jabber was about the executive bonus's, which, I totally agree, they should be taken out and hung for them, especially in AIG's case. But the point is, is that Washington is the fricking worst of the bunch, with their crap of granting a one term congress person, their wage's for that one time stint, for the rest of their stinking lives. And then they have the gall, to grant themselves a huge raise this year, for paper clips and Private jet air fare back to their home town's when they go into recess, which is about 300 day's a year. It's just appalling to see the complete ignorance of the American public, as to where the true whore monger's are, and the really sad part, is that the beauracracy (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=beauracracy) is so imbeded in Washington, that the only way to clean it out, is to WIPE it out, IE, make the consequence's so dire, that the next wave of "Public Servant's", that come along with the new, AKA, OLD, America, will do what the fuck, we say to do. What a bunch of slime holes, they are disgusting. Which mean's of course, that YOU are disgusting, because YOU keep voting them back in every fricking election. I just keep hoping for one big score, so I can buy my stinking Island, http://www.privateislandsonline.com/ , and get the frick out of this country. The cost of the Island of course, is just the START, as they have to be in International Waters, it has to be big enough to have a water supply, and attrack RB's (Rich Bastards), you have to build power generation plants, you have to have enough room to have farms, providing grains, beef, pigs, mutton, etc etc, an Airport, an Army, to conquer some of the less affluent Islands, and force the conquered minion's to work on our farms, etc etc etc, it's a BIG project. Of course, I already live on that Island, it's called Beaver, UT, but the view ain't that stinking great. Some thing like this, http://www.privateislandsonline.com/mehetia-tahiti.htm , it may have water.

My man Clive, Corcoran that is, lay's my "feeling's" out almost exactly, in a much more Brit way, http://tradewithform.blogspot.com/ . Knowing what I do, that being, that when my generation started buying "HOMES", the MEDIAN price was usually equal to the MEDIAN wage, in the country, and since the MEDIAN in now $201K, http://investmenttools.com/median_and_average_sales_prices_of_houses_sold_in_the_us.htm#median , and the MEDIAN wage is under 50K a year,
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf , I figure housing prices have to drop ANOTHER 75%, to become AFFORDABLE!!!!!!

My magic software didn't come up with diddly squat for longs this week, but, it did come up with some decent looking short set ups. You'd think one of them would be good for some change, depending on the market direction, of course. They are AG,APA,BOH,BTU,CMA,CREE,DD,EQT,PEG,WES, WFMI.