MSW 4/7/09

I highly recommend you read Jeff Saut's article this week, http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm , far and away one of his best, especially about the former millionaires.

Oh, hell, read John Hussman while your at it,
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090406.htm , he didn't want to say it, but I have no problem, the RAPE of America continues, I'm not going to have to worry about it, because I won't be around, but I feel sorry for my kid's in their later years, and my grandson.

Excellent chart on Marty Chenard's site, http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm , showing how, compared to 2000-03', we aren't even close to a low, compared to the end of that bear market.


The daily ETF screen has no change's on it.

On the Russell 1000, it has a new buy on GM, HEY, GO FOR IT, hahahahahahaha!!! That's the thing about a brainless software, it don't know what's going on. On the other new buys and shorts, I don't really have an opinion, other than WTR, with all the yelling and screaming about the world running out of water (aren't the polar caps melting??? lotta water there), and BTB being involved, with the government (I expect to see that roach that used to be Vice President in there any minute, I forget his name, he brought a Noble some thing), I would, SHORT THE SHIT OUT OF THIS THING!

Speaking of Obamanomic's, we are getting a quick dose of them in our little town. Fricking gas jumped 20 cents, 20 FRICKING CENTS, in one day here, from 1.87 to 2.07, that's not his fault, it's the roach oil outfit's doing their usual pump into Memorial day. In another note, the Democrap's just shut down 3.5 million acre's here in Utah, to us, the PUBLIC (who own it), and to any energy drilling, which all of our's is natural gas drilling. You notice we almost hit an all time low on natural gas today, which is our source of winter heat here, WELL, YOU CAN KISS THAT PRICE GOOD BY!!!!

And the WORSE part, is I just got the updated cigarette prices from my smoke shop, http://www.cartonsofsmokes.com/ , the one's I buy, almost DOUBLED in price, due to the new tax. I notice the fricking premium brands are going for 50 stinking bucks a CARTON!!!!! I mean, spit spit, I'm going to have to quite smoking, for christ sake!!!!!! I mean, I know what this is all about, but you know, I've been smoking for 40 years, and I haven't died yet, WHY???? Glad you asked, the cancer that is caused by my smoking and drinking, eat's the FAT cells, and then the cancer cell's get so fat, they die of heart disease, HONEST TO GOD, I READ IT IN A MEDICAL JOURNAL (yea, the Cucca school of medicine, hahahahaha). Anyway, if I quite, I'm going to have to start eating a carton of twinkies every day, THAT'S CERTAINLY GOING TO BE HEALTHY!!!!!
One stock I didn't mention, that I kind of like, is TXT, I hear there's rumor's of a take over bid, it showed up on my volume spike list. I mean, obviously, this thing is seriously over bought, BUT, if you could get it back around that $7 level, there's really nothing but clear air up to the $13 "area", it reminds me a lot of my TQNT volume find last week. Anyway, it's just an idea.

4/7/09

2:00PM: Noooowww, waaaaiiit a minute, hold on, "they" (da "Street") kept telling me that the bottom was in, the market had "built in all the bad stuff", earnings had been reduced so much, we would be beating all those "reduced" earning expectations, etc etc etc, and THEN, on the very first day of earnings season, "they" sell the shit out of it??? WTF is THAT about??? Was somebody lying to me???? That can't be, da Street NEVER fricking lies, right? RIGHT?? Hahahahahaha!

Speaking of lying, and some thing that if I did it, I would go to jail for, with all the hub bub over JAVA and IBM, I checked the option's on JAVA, the April 5 strike price, the chart at the bottom, hahahahaha, that big volume spike in the red circle, is TWO DAYS before the announcement was made, YOU DON'T THINK ANYBODY KNEW ABOUT IT, AND WAS TRADING IT, BEFORE HAND, DO YA???????? You and me, we'd be in jail for shit like that. By the way, if you have the scanning software for this kind of volume spike in options, it would be really cool. I don't know of any FREE (the magic word) stuff.

Anyway, Lo and Behold, old dog's can learn new tricks, I decided to check out the VXN/Q setup, that BZ has been talking about, BZ Trader , where you have a chart of the VXN (the Q's equivalent of the VIX) and Q's up, and then buy or sell a cross of the two of them. COOL!! On the five minute charts, the VXN crossed above the Q's, at the exact same moment that the Q's broke the low of the day, at 11:10am MT, the VXN is the green line on the second chart above, I put a circle on it at the cross, and a circle on the regular 5 minute chart. Anyway, hahahaha, short city, I exited out during that mucky consolidation, about an hour later. Woooo Hooooo, it paid for BZ's free services, hahahahahaha!

I put the Fib's on the 60min chart, that cover's "the rally" from 3/10, I can see that the important retracement level's line up with some support area's in the Q's, like the 38.2% lines up with support around 29.64, the 50% line's up exactly on that 3/20 bottom at 29, and the 61.8% lines up exactly on the 3/16 bottom at 28.22, just some numbers to keep in mind. We haven't hit my "first" support area's yet, either than blue trend line, or the gap fill at 30.78. Anyway, that's what I'm looking at for support area's.

Wow, the Q's dumped going into the close, I guess they expect BBBY to miss earnings, or maybe AA missing so bad, they drag the whole market down with them.

7:15am: Some one asked me about the Uggies last night, UYG, well, I have no opinion on them, the MSW has the FAS as a confirmed weekly buy, wad ever. But, if you are bullish on bank stocks, the obvious choice is to take FAS over UYG, especially over the XLF. They all trade on the charts exactly the same. If you had like, 500 shares of UYG right now, you could sell out, take your $1500, and buy 200 shares of FAS, basically the same amount of risk capital in the trade. IF, the banks get hot, and go back to those early January highs, your 200 shares of FAS would be worth about $5,000, while the 500 UYG would be worth about $3,000, seem's like a pretty obvious choice of which one is the better "risk".

MSW 4/6/09

In the Russell 1000, we got 4 new buys, and 4 new short signals, I'm not really wild about any of them, but the CSX and SWK short's looks fairly decent. On the daily time frame, the MSW is on various buy signals on 350 stocks, and short signals on 185 stocks, so, the software is pretty bullish.

On the ETF's, there was basically no change on the daily charts, other than a confirmed sell on TAN, and confirmed buy on TBT, however, there was a very RARE signal on the weekly side, a new weekly buy signal on IWM and DIA. Of course, the week isn't over yet, so the signal could change over the next three days.

4/6/09

2:05pm: The 5min chart was kind of interesting this morning, we actually set up a "trap door" at the open, cool, that's where we go 3-5 bars in the DIRECTION of the gap, in this case, down. The 5th bar set up a little green hamari, or wad ever, right on the 200ma, the 5min 200ma don't mean squat to me, but I guess it must to some body, cause we stopped there. Anyway, the rally off that carried right up to the whole number, 32, da Q's looooove whole numbers, so they turned us back down, and took us right to that black horizontal line, and stopped, which is REALLY cool, because that black line is the break out level, the previous high for the year from 2/10, 31.68. I started partialing out of my short calls as we wallowed along that triple bottom (there's no such thing as a triple bottom or top, just consolidations waiting to break in a continuation of the prior move), until I had half off, then, I WAS, going to keep the rest of it, for the test of that "area" that I want to see, that I talked about this morning, on the 60min. SIGH, it wasn't to be, as the bull shit started again, so I exited the second half at break even on it, I guess I'll have to wait another day to make my fortune's.

What I'm going to be watching now, is the retest of the previous highs, at 32.40, I mean, I'm going to be REALLY interested if we get back to that area. What typically happen's, is we take it out by a few cents or what ever, wallow around, before turning back down, if we do that, I'm going to start loading up again. Tomorrow is turn around tuesday, so maybe we turn around from going down, to REALLY going down, hahahahahahaha!

The drop this morning was enough to alleviate the over bought condition on the 60min chart, the McClellan exited the short this morning at 11:30 MT, at 31.87, for a gain of 35 cents, it's next trade will be a long trade.

The daily chart is still way, way extended, so this little drop didn't do any thing to alleviate any over bought conditions on that. There's no doubt in my mind, that if we get over that 32.40, we're probably going up some more, sigh, wad ever. 34 is the high end number I've mentioned before.

CSCO, QCOM and JAVA contributed the most to the declines, while AAPL, RIMM (wad a monster, I guess the MSW was right) and GILD contributed the most on the up side. Going into the close, there was only about 28 stocks higher on the day in the Q's, so, well, I don't know what to make of that. The best sector was Biotech, the worst Gold and the financials.

I may not be in tonight, so there may be no MSW update, I'll probably post it before the open tomorrow.

Speaking of Sun Micro, they are doing their best Ying Yang impersonation, as they are trying to get their share holders (those that are left, hahahahaha) pissed off, turning down an offer they will never see again in my life time.

GEEZE, I have talked about this a hundred times before, and I'll probably do it a hundred more times, the animal that gets caught in the trap, is the TRAPPED animal, the animal that set's the trap, is the TRAPPER, geeze, even Mike Swanson called this a "Bear" trap. I have shown these two charts before, to show the difference:

THIS IS A BEAR TRAP!!!!!!

AND THIS IS A BULL TRAP!!!!!!

AIN'T SHE A CUTIE!!! CAREFUL BOY'S, THAT'S ONE BAD ASS TRAP, HAHAHAHA!!!!

6:15am: Futures have turned lower over night, down about .80%, Q's down about 22 cents, about four hour's ago, although MarketWatch would never know it, Futures clinging onto rally , hahahahaha, wad ever. Anyway, I looked and looked for some news, and AH HAH, I found it, Campbell Soup gets downgraded to neutral at J.P. Morgan , I mean, no wonder they are down, that depress's even me, come on JP, for god's sake, don't be UnAmerican!!

Anyway, we are REALLY drafting down right now, as Goldman just came out and down graded CSCO, wow, we didn't need that, Goldman is probably short, and couldn't get any earning's warning's to take the market down, so they decided to take matters into their own hands, hahahahaha!

Some one asked me where I get my future's data, off of TradeStation, or my IB platform. Or, you can watch CNBC or Bloomberg on the tube, even FOX business channel has it.

Anyway, that 60min chart at the bottom, we are obviously in an up trend, and it look's pretty damn good, if we get the pull back here, the most OBVIOUS target, is the gap fill from 4/1 at 30.78, by the time we get there, we will also be running into that uptrend line, that would be a very cool area to get long, again, very logical, therefore, it probably won't work worth a damn, hahahahaha!

The McClellan, at the top, went short friday morning at 10:30MT at 32.22, I included the updated Equity Curve on it, it continues to work very well. That's on a 60min time frame, which is the only time frame I can get a positive equity curve on the "system". One thing I want to bring up, is the McClellan works off of Advance/Decline differentials, a little bit different than the momentum system's that work off the RSI and CCI system's, they draw down when they trigger a trade against the prevailing trend, in this case, naturally, the trend is CURRENTLY, UP, therefore, short's are "possibly" going to be a draw down, but, of course, all trends come to an end, some time, and this may be the start of a new trend, who knows.

Speaking of the RSI and CCI system's, most of BZ's system's went short two day's ago, on the Q's, like the RSI Popper's, Kop Q's, and the Grand Slam, so, those system's are on a short, on the daily time frame's.

Good luck out their today.

Fun with Fib's

7:00pm: Just like my friend last week, TQNT, AEP had enooooor-mous, volume, the day before last. Is that the coolest looking double bottom you've ever seen, or wad??!!! So, the STOCH has crossed over to the upside, what this thing may be trying to do, is set up the infamous, "Big Double-U", eeeeeeeerrrrrrrr, excuse me, the "Big W", now, the traditional "take" on these things, is above the middle of the "Double-U", in this case, about 28.50+. BUT, when it get's there, where's your stop??? You know wad I mean, well, right now, it's under 24, you obviously don't want it under that, so, you either take it now, with a stop under the "Double Bottom", or wait for it to get over the middle of the "Big Double-U", with a stop under the double bottom, under 24. "Investing" is a bitch, ain't it??!!

5:45pm: I just got back from the Ranch, futures are up about 1/2%, I guess mainly because North Korea launched their missle, Obama is saber rattling, and NAUTRALLY, the MARKET LOVES WAR, hahahahahaha!!! Sigh, wad ever, ANYWAY, I heard through a friend of mine, who heard it through another friend, that an outfit that if you were engaged to be married, you would be Bespoken for, or, you could all ready be, "Bespoke" (a lot of crap trying to get around the legal stuff), said that since 2001, if you would have invested during earnings season, you would be down 26.7%, VS UP 2.87% the rest of the year.
SO, with those stat's in mind, and earnings season starting this week (we are in warning season right now), and, as I noted below, the S&P being more over bought on the short term, than it's been in three years, I guess I should just go all in, LONG, right now, HUH, wad da ya think??? I mean, it's just me, naturally, but I MUCH prefer to see us going into earnings season, very over sold, with low expectations, hoping we beat those low expectations, rather than going into earnings season, extremely over bought, expecting the market to beat the shit out of those low expectations. But hey, that's just me, invest anyway you want.

Congress votes themselve's a 92K raise this year, for more paper clips, and flying them home for their 300 holiday's a year, but, LUCKILY, the averge tax payer will be getting an additional $10 a week added to their check, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123861337915579305.html , hahahahahahahahahahahahaha, who are the REAL CROOKS in this country, come on now, the banks and the rest of Wall Street, or the FRICKING GOVERNMENT???!!!!!!

In relation to the post below, I should have looked at the A20 first (this is later), I actually prefer the A20 as far as short term over bought readings, and as I can see, we are more over bought than at any time in the last three years, at 93.4% of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 20dma. This, of course, doesn't mean we can't continue UP, hahahahaha, we did in March of 07', but I'll tell you what it does to me, it make's me verwy verwy cautious, about getting whole hog wildly bullish here, at least for the short term.

Looking at the A50 on the S&P 500, stocks above their 50dma, there's no question that we are over bought, the 80% area seems to be a "high" threshold, BUT, it dosen't always mean we HAVE to pull back. Looking at the three year chart above, yea yea yea, it stopped the January rally dead in it's tracks, looking further to the left, it also stopped the May of 08' and the final all time high in October of 07', dead in their tracks. BUT, looking further to the left, it DID NOT stop the rallies in April of 07' and October of 06'. Like I have said in prior posts, I think the way to look at this, is with divergences. I mean, right now we are over bought, and we haven't even gotten back up to the February and January highs (I don't consider that good), what I would want to see, to tell me the momentum is waning, is for us to get back to the Febrary highs, with the A50 going down, or even better, back to the January highs, with the same thing happening, what this would say, is that we are going higher, with less and less stocks participating in the rally, IE, da Boyz are using a few of the big cap's, to push us higher, trying to suck in Joe retail, before suddenly reversing us, probably with some humongeous gap down. Right now, I have no opinion on it, other than we are over bought, they may work that off like they did a week ago, with a couple of quick, sharp, reversal days, and then the rally resume's.

11:30am: One thing that bug's me man, about the current bear market, is that we've come down so fast, we've left no pivots or support or resistance area's, to "play" off of, during the "rally". The bear from 2000-03' actually left several pivots that ended up being Fibonacci retracement points, plus they worked out well as resistance area's on the subsequent bear market rallies. One chart I didn't do, because it takes several charts, is to show how each one of the bottom's from 00-03', when you put a Fib retracement chart on each of them, the bear market rally that followed set up perfect Fib retracements, either 32.2-50-61.8%, that set up each one of the next pivot highs, you can see a little of that in the middle chart, that has the Fib retracements for that period, on the over all time period.

So, right now, the nearest pivot's are waaaaaay up there, from that first drop out of 07' into 08', in the circle, I don't have a chart of it, but the "rally" in the circle stopped at almost a perfect 50% retracement. So, without pivot points, my only logical area's to look at, are the previous resistance areas from the last bear. I can see right now that the 38.2% retracement has resistance from the 98' and 01' bottoms, "around" 1000, the 50% retracement area has a ton of resistance area's, from the 98' highs, the 01' lows, the 02' highs, and a congestion area from 03-04', around 1120, those are area's I'll be watching.

It also seems to me, that a lot of people are waiting for the perfect "retest", like we had in 02'-03', to signal the end of the bear market. Well, in the top chart, I can see that we never did that at all, during all those various bear market's in the 70's, WE DON'T HAVE TO COME BACK AND TEST. It is interesting though, that the final all time low, the bear market low in 32-33', made the exact same bottom as the 02'-03' low.

One thing we DO have to do, to end the bear, is get back above those moving averages, the blue and the gray lines, I mean, beside's not EVEN being CLOSE to them, they are still plunging straight down, much less beginning to flatten out, or even better, make a cross. We got a loooooonnnggg way to go, before a real bull maket starts again.

QUESTION

I changed the blog so it only show's one day of posts, is that BETTER, or, WORSE?? I did that to cut down on the loading time.

MSW 4/3/09

The MSW came up with a couple of interesting items, on the bottom, it's weekly signals for the ETF's, it stopped out of it's short on the Q's, that has been in place since August of last year, hmmmmmm. It held it's new buy on the EWJ, and it's short on the SLV, and loves the IYT, the transports, with a confirmed buy. There was not much change in the daily signals.

On the Russell 1000 it gave a new buy signal on RIMM (YUCKO!), sigh, who knows, it might work. What I found interesting, was how stupidly human this brainless software is, as it's trying to short CREE again, hahahahahaha, the thing thinks the same way I do, SHORT THE PEICE OF SHIT!!! It had a short that worked really well that started last September and lasted into December. Then, it tried to short it again in January, stopped out, tried AGAIN in January, made money, tried to short it twice in March, stopped out on both of them, and now, it's trying again. I'll give it credit, it's a persistant little thing, what I'm trying to point out, is, that just like anything or anyone, it's NOT PERFECT, as no one is.

4/3/09

2:10PM: YUCKO, is that the ugliest, I mean, uuuuuuggggggliieeeestttt chart, I've ever seen, or WAD???!!! Geeze, I'm sure glad I'm over weight short. We had a snow storm here today, maybe that has some thing to do with my ethernet, anyway, I'll update this weekend, when (if??) I get it back, so it's the cheapo charts. I notice we hit a high of 32.40, now, where did I hear that number from, hhhhmmmmmm, OH, that's right, I mentioned it this morning, hahahaha!! It ALWAYS helps to watch the premarket highs and lows, they can be important numbers.

One really baaaaaaaaad thing that happened today, since I didn't have much to do, I was watching BubbleVision, hahahahahahahaha, my god, they are at LEAST, as bad as they ever were. I mean listening to them, you would swear the job's report actually showed a GAIN, hahahahahahaha, and oh, yea, heaven forbid they mention the huge upward revision to january, what a bunch of stinking clown's. Their guests are just as bad, they had on an analyst from JP Morgan (one of my most favorite trusted sources, hahahaha), his last name was Lee, he actually said, and I quote, "Stocks are looking very attractively valued here". ?????????????????????????????!!!!!!!! WTF!!!!!!! Let me get this straight, we get the biggest rally since the great depression, 22%+, DURING, the greatest depression, SINCE, the great depression, and STOCKS ARE LOOKING VERY ATTRACTIVELY VALUED??????????????????????? What the hell was he saying in the depths of hell, on March 9th???????????? Were they UNATTRACTIVE then?????????

Wad ever, please get my inet back, so I don't do stupid shit like that, like watch Bubblevision.

I did get to watch "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull", I thought it was terrific, funnier than hell, I guess it was to sophomoric for the critic's, which is right up my alley.

10:30am: WELL, that certainly takes care of me, probably none to soon either, hahahaha! What I'm talking about, is some thing happened to my Ethernet, and it blew the puter up, I'm back on, but on the regular phone hook up, which sucks, I can't get my platforms running on just the phone line. Anyway, I had a greaaaaat week, so it's just as well, and as the chart shows, it was looking like the fun was over with. We set the high in the premarket, just under 32.40, pulled back, and after the open, made a lower high, wooooo hoooooo, hahahahaha (sorry bulls). So then, we actually make a lower low, just to the left of the arrow, then bear flag up and sit under all the MA's, and start down, wooooooo hooooo, I'm gonna fricking dollar down when we break those lows!!!!! Hahahahahaha, roach's, not to be, we stop and actually make a dinky little higher low, wallow around, come back and make another higher low, and right now we've broken over the MA's, like I said, it looks like the fun is over, for now. We're pretty over bought on that 5min chart, I have no idea if we break over the intraday high to the left, around 32.30, or not, if we do, then we obviously go after the premarket highs, in the .40 "area".
Most of my great week, was due to that little peice of junk I was screwing around with, TQNT. I got .75 for half of it, like, yesterday?? day before??, this morning, it opens up being bid .70, ask at 1.10, this is the problem with little things like this, huge spreads. So I offer 1.00 for the last half, no take, lower it to .95, boom, I'm out of it, hahahaha, roach's, you have NO IDEA what they will take, with a spread like that. So I pick up .20 on the first half, and .40 on the second, wooooo hooooo, I may take the next two month's off, hahahahaha!!!!
Anyway, I may be back later, if I can get my ethernet back. Good luck the rest of the day.

7:00am: MarketWatch cracks me up, Eerie calm before jobs data ,they're so dramatic. Anyway, the report was horrible, 663,000 jobs are lost , but, not as bad as expected. DOW futures were up about 40 before the report, they are down about 50 right now. Why down, after a better than expected report?? "8:30 a.m.: U.S Jan. payrolls revised to loss of 741,000 jobs", the Government, magically, TWO MONTHS after the report, managed to find another 100K+ jobs that were lost, the lying fricking slime bags, I mean, they know EXACTLY, every milli second of the day, who's employed and who's not, they just put it off two months, hoping no one would notice.

Anyway, the job loss's only reinforce my feelings about that chart above, FO, Fortune Brand's, as they are very intimate with my best friend, Jim, Jim Beam that is, and I think more people are going to get familiar with him, hahahahahaha! It broke out through that 27.50 level yesterday under huge volume (I had a large volume of "it" myself, a few nights ago), the 30 level "may" be big resistance, but once through that it will go right to 34, then to the gap fill at 38, then the prior highs at 42. This thing was a $60+ stock in the last year. It showed up on the MSW weekly charts, as a confirmed buy, from the move yesterday. My "preferred" senario, would be for it to stall at 30, then pull back and fill that gap at 26, and scare the absolute shit out of the bull's, before blasting off to those area's I mentioned above, of course, I could be dreaming on that one, but, wad ever.

Watch out for the ISM Services report at 10am ET, good luck out there today.

MSW

No change on the ETF's at the top, at least, I don't think there was. One note about the Q's, RIMM blew earning's away after hours, and are up like 14 bucks, APPL went up with it, I guess because RIMM is taking share, hahahahahahahaha, go figure THAT one. Anyway, da Q's are back over 32, which, when I look to the left, after we broke over those two highs at 31.68, the way is clear up to the 11/4 highs around 34, I mean, we virtually have no resistance between here, and there. HOWEVER, my McClellan is very over bought, among other things like the stocks above their 10 and 20ma's, etc etc, so, we have a two edged sword here. I'm going to do what the tough always do here, and go hide. I left a comment to Sysin, about a comment a famous blogger made about the recent monthly payroll report days, that was kind of interesting.

The stock play, at the bottom, has one new buy, PTEN, I'm not interested, maybe you are. It had six new shorts, most of them are a little interesting, GENZ, the one on the chart, is the one I see most interesting. Should I take any of those shorts, I will definitely have a stop over the recent highs from a few days ago.

4/2/09

2:15PM: These things just go straight up forever, don't they, THEY WILL NEVER PULL BACK!!!! Hahahahahahaha, ok, well, maybe a "little" pull back. That 15min chart showed the first chink in the armour when it made the lower high, and then REALLY chinked when it made the lower low. I mean, some times market's actually act a little "normal", as there would be just no reason for a "trader" who had picked some gains up, to kind of like, LIGHTEN UP A LITTLE, into the payroll report in the morning.

The daily was setting up an ugly looking hammer on it, it kind of got helped the last five minutes with a little rally, but that thing sure looks weird sitting out there all by itself, like, if the payroll report comes in a little worse than expected, like 800K or some thing, we could be looking at an Island reversal, or abandoned baby (poor baby). Speaking of that little late rally, it always set's off my PPT alarm bells, as the KEY number to hold, when we pulled back today, was the break out number, 31.68, which is over those two prior highs I talked about, yesterday?? Anyway, very cute, we just "happen" to rally back above that number into the close.

The McClellan completed it's latest trade this morning, a long trade, it entered on 3/31 at 30.62, and exited this morning at 31.57, it left quite a bit on the table, but, way to go McCell, Clap Clap Clap! It's next trade will be a short trade.

Back later with the MSW.

7:15am: The bull shit has been hitting the fan over night, futures are up 1.6 to almost 2%, Q's up 55 cents to 31.32. The ES was much higher this morning, but pulled back after the economic data, Relentlessly higher jobless filings First-time claims stand at the highest since 1982, as continuing claims jump to 5.73 million.• Consumer loan delinquencies hit a record 3.22% , are they REALLY using the word "HOPE", in this article?? NewsWatch: Stock futures suggest rally's extension on economy hopes , anyway, banks and oil are rallying like crazy, BAC up another 10%.
We have room to go higher after the open, after we got that little pull back, BUT, the Q's are hitting huge resistance from both the early February highs, and the highs from five days ago, 31.35-31.68. What I "think" is going to happen, is we WALLOW, as no one in their right mind would want to buy this shit, but I don't think seller's will be jumping in against the gun either, PLUS, with the jobless report tomorrow morning, we could get a narrow range wait and see type day, wad ever.

I solved the email problem, some IDIOT (now, I wonder who THAT could be), has had the wrong email address on this site since it started, hahahahahahahaha!!! I wondered why I had never received an email from here, I was missing an "a" on the end of it, cuccaa@gmail.com .

Link

The previous chart's didn't link, these, should LINK.

From Price Headley:

The Little-Known April Bullish Trend March 2009 certainly came in like a Bearish Lion, but exited as somewhat of a Bullish Lamb. We saw the market plummet reach its zenith on March 9th, followed by a very strong rebound rally in the major indices. Now that we have entered April, we did some research on this month's historical performance, and the results are surprising and should help calm some fears of another imminent big leg down.First, if you look at the data from this milennium (since 2000), April is the leading average % return for the S&P 500 Index at +1.46% average gain (see the below table). This is far stronger than any other month in that time frame -- and the second strongest month is May at +0.88%. So the Spring has been an outperforming season in general. The months that had the highest chance of being positive were August, followed by a May/October/November/December tie, so April has not been the highest in terms of a positive return (it is 55%). S&P 500 Index Monthly Performance (since 2000)(Continued Below)


That is a fairly small sample size, so we looked back all the way to 1950 on the S&P 500 Index data. Note on the chart below that April is the 3rd strongest month, with an average return of 1.37% and a 67.8% chance of being positive. November and December, which are commonly discussed as historically "strong" months for the market, are the biggest gainers on average. Data compiled from Yahoo Finance.1950 to 2008 Monthly S&P 500 Performance There are many market axioms concerning seasonality and months, such as "Sell in May and go away", "Up January equals Up Year", "Crashes occur in September/October/November", "Summers are slow and bad for technology stocks" etc. Some of these expressions are proven true while others may be violated in any given year. The data above indicates that "April Showers brings Bullish Flowers" may become a future cliche, albeit a tongue-in-cheek one. Of course nothing is guaranteed (for example none of the months are up more than 75% of the time since 1950), but it's always good to have some historical statistical data in your favor when analyzing the market and risk/reward ratios.

MSW SPOTDAY

A typical day in the life of a trader:

Last Tuesday, as President Obama got off the helicopter in front of the White House, he was carrying a baby piglet under each arm. The squared away Marine guard snaps to attention, Salutes and says: "Nice pigs, sir." The President replies "These are not pigs...these are authentic Arkansas Razorback Hogs. I got one for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and I got one for Speaker of The House Nancy Pelosi."

The squared away Marine again snaps to attention, Salutes and says, "Excellent trade, sir".

Thanks BZ'er.

I'm working on some thing new for the site, I was going to start a new site and put the advertisements and crap on that one, but, SCREW IT, I'll just put it up here, for now at least. I'm going to start seeing if I can update the MSW (Magic SoftWare) every day, to see what pop's up, as far as stocks on the Russell 1000, that the software is issuing a BUY on, or a SHORT, but I assume most of you are typical "investor's", and only buy shit (me, all I do, is SELL shit, but, wad ever), plus, I'll put up the chart above, which is the ETF's I have on the "system", with four charts of some of them I consider interesting (why I'd ever be interested in the Q's, is beyond me). Now, if you WANT me to, I'll include some OTHER ETF's in the chart above, but only if you ask, IE, say some thing in the comments section, about would I please put up a chart of blah blah blah, to see what the "software" says.

Now, before you click on the chart above, BE AWARE, that the little green thing I have down at the bottom of the page, called "site meter", tracks everyone on the site, and since it cost's me a fricking fortune, A FRICKING FORTUNE I TELL YOU, to do this, I'm charging, 10 bucks a pop, to see an expanded view of the chart above. My "site meter", tell's me who you are, what your credit card number is, what you are watching on TV, RIGHT NOW, what the name of your oldest child is, etc etc etc. Hey, I gotta get these cost's back some how, RIGHT!!!???

OK, on to the SPOTDAY, Stock Play Of The Day (if someone can come up with a better name, I'd appreciate it):

OK, wad da ya think, is that a great chart, of a terrific stock, or what??????? Hahahahahahahaha, wouldn't you know it, it didn't come up with SHIT to buy today, although it did come up with a short, LEN, although I don't particularly care for it, it's a stinking 7 dollar stock, how much are you going to get out of that??? ANYWAY, what I found interesting, is that it came up with this: It came up with a bunch of "confirmed buys", that's signified by a hollow green up arrow, this is where it had a "buy" signal on it, and then today, some thing happened where 60% of the 59 trading systems triggered another buy setup on it, thus, it issue's a "confirmed buy", on the "existing" buy signal. Wad ever, the chart in the picture is ADSK, it's mildly interesting, as it appears it could go to the 19 area, wad ever. What I found interesting, is of the 17 confirmed "buys", 12 of them were financials and REIT's. Just a side note, there's 17 confirmed buys, but the confirmed SELL's, total 48, meaning, aaaaaaaahhhhh, well, you figure it out.

Here's some thing else it came up with, that I find mildly interesting, it's got 14 new buys on the weekly chart's, with only 1 new sell. I have MDP up there, because of the 14, it seems the most interesting. More interesting, is the confirmed buys, as it has 44 of those, and only 8 confirmed sells, meaning, the dumb ass software seem's to be bullish.

Anyway, as you probably already found out, the 10 bucks a whack thing is an April fool's joke (among other things on this site), but what I do plan on doing, is doing what I said I would never do, and go to Advertisements. HEY, I'm a stinking old retired guy, living on a fixed income, and just this, took me like 3 hours to do, after finally figuring out BZ's instructions on how to get a picture of the "software" on to the site. Anyway, I'd appreciate it, after I figure out how, and who, to get the Add's on the site, that you click through about a half a dozen of them each time you view the site, WOOOOOOO HOOOOOO, I could make 20-30 bucks a month, enough to pay for a night of booze.

Regardless, I'm open for any suggestions anyone may have (be NICE).

4/1/09

Just a little side note, I just saw Bob Olstein on Bloomberg, The Olstein Funds: About the Manager , I wondered what happened to him, he used to be on most of the show's as a yakking talking screaming fricking saleman head, evidently he got his assssssssssss kicked after the Lehmann bankruptcy, and had to leave the market for awhile. I don't know why that's such a big deal, I GET MY FRICKING ASS KICKED EVERY DAY, HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Honestly, I've always kind of liked the guy, he seem's half ass honest.

I AM SO FRICKING HAPPY, MY YOUNGEST SON MATT, GOT A JOB AS A FLEET MECHANIC FOR THE NORTH LAKE TAHOE PUBLIC UTILITY DISTRICT, HE HAS HIS HEAD IN THE TAX PAYER'S TROUGH, WOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!!!!!



2:30pm: Hahahahahaha, I'm trying to short the shit out of this thing, but it keep's looking UP to me, both the 60min and the daily look UP, don't they???? The STOCH on the 60min is over bought, but the RSI at the bottom looks like it wants to make another run at the over bought level, but the thing that get's me, is the flat top on the last three bars of the 60min., we keep stalling right at the gap fill from 3/27, that's why my interest in shorting this thing (I DID, hahahahahaha, get ready for an explosion to the upside).
And speaking of GAP's, what in the hell is with the big gaps for six of the last eight fricking day's, I mean, we keep gapping all over the place, the sad part, is the way I play them, the only one I had a decent play on was from monday, when we took off south in the direction of the gap, IE, kind of a trap door thing. I can't do any thing with this thing, when it like, gap's up, and then goes UP, or like today, it gap's down, BIG (and it should have, damn it!!!), and then we go practically straight up, the roach's!
Anyway, if we get over this "flat top" here, we go right back up to test the previous highs from 3/26, around the 31.50 "area".


2:20PM: AAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRGHHHHHH!!! I have no idea what's wrong with the stupid G-mail thing, look, I'm working on a "new" thing, I don't have time to try and figure out what's wrong with the Gmail thingey, I'll keep posting here, until I get a transition ready, although it may be sporadic. I'm extremely sorry for the inconvience.


Hot Markets OverviewBy Barry Rosen

JUNE S&P e-MINIDAILY CHART TREND: Lower to at 620 into early May; first target 720. WEEKLY CHART TREND: Probably lower in April into early May and then higher into July 10.
PATTERNS and CYCLES: (4/1) The 830.25 region will hold this week and we are very skeptical it will get retested. We are clear on a 5-3-5 pattern toward 943 or 1000 forming here until July 10. We also feel that April is weak into early May and that could be the 3-wave decline and "b" wave. If the market cannot get through 830 this week, then there is still a 55% chance for a new low into May 10 low and probably that low will be at 620. The week of employment is heavy consolidation and at this point we doubt 814 will get taken out on the upside and 763 should hold on the downside going into the report. We have looked closely at cycles for Friday and they are mixed but more positive than negative. It may be that we get a sell-off on Sunday night that continues into Monday and Tuesday.
YEARLY OUTLOOK: (3/23) Overall for the year we are inclined to think that a temporary low has been put in and that a secondary low in early April will come. If we do go to 943-1000 into July, will the market congest the rest of the year between 666 and 1000 and that maybe even into August 2010. We know we have to be long from a secondary low into early April and we will see how high that gets us into July but 943 and 1000 are easy targets. So we may get a reprieve this year and we not see new lows until Dec. 2010. There should be a sense by the end of the year that the market is coming out of this mess.
MULTI-YEAR CYCLES: 2009-2017: Long-term research on the stock market shows the long term is not great but short-term it is much better. For 2009, those cycles have suggest a low a high into early April, a pullback into early May and then a rally into about July 10 (which for sure is a high now) and then a secondary low into the end of August and then a new high into late October an choppy sideways action into the end of the year. We still need to overlap some other cycles on top of this but for now we may need to think that we are running out of time for this market to make new lows to 620 and a close above 800 will negate that possibility and new lows and those would not come in until Dec. 2010 at this point. We need to do some calculations on where the July 2010 high might go to. For 2010: Cycle highs peak into July 2010 and then fall sharply into Dec. 2010. They recover into August 2011 and fall off into Dec. 2011. The year 2011 seems sideways to lower but could end up dropping much more significantly if we are correct about the dollar falling sharply. The biggest crash appears to happen Dec. 2012-July 2013, and that coincides with the 1993 banking crisis in the 120-year cycle. We see a recovery into August 2015 and then new lows to 2016 and April 2017 before the bear market is over. Folks who were trading from 1966-82 can remember that you can have 18-20 years of congestion at times. The mess we are in will go deeper than the 30's depression by the time we get to 2013-16. The good news is that a new economic system will come out of all of this.
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX (electronic) WEEKLY CHART: (3/31) With crude and stocks lower in April into early May, we are wondering if the dollar will come to life unexpectedly. There is one very bullish pattern that would project the 9600 region and the market is probably not going to take out 8500-8520 on dips now. There is still a minor chance for 8050 but for the moment we are dismissing it.
MONTHLY CHART OVERVIEW: The longer-term picture for the dollar suggests higher dollars into Feb. 2011 and from there we will start the big dollar crash into 2012 and 2013.
CHICAGO JUNE MINI-GOLD (electronic)DAILY CHART TREND: Lower into the week of April 13.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Fourth-wave retracement to max. 796 into July.
MONTHLY CHART TREND: Higher to 2400-3000 into 2012-13.
NEAR TERM: (4/1) Gold and silver are due for cycle lows this week and they may have already come in, although silver could still make a new low to 1220. Gold is likely to hold support at 911 on the June contract. While we are bullish long term, and seasonally gold is often up in April into early May, the stock market is probably going to have to break S&P 700 to cause flight to quality on gold and push it up to 1036 into May. We will be looking to start accumulating very soon. Gold appears to be higher into Monday, which suggests it will get support from the employment report on Friday.
BIG PICTURE: (3/27) Retracements off of the 1007 high suggest at least 835 and 796. We may have enough time into the late March low to go lower or it could drag out over months. Linear cycle lows are due the week of April 13 but gold stocks and the gold bug index cycle secondary highs are due the week ending April 3. The chances of a rally to 1034 first seem small. MONTHLY CHART TREND: (2/24) We think the dollar will become worthless into 2012-3 and that gold will become king again. Prices project 2400-3000. This is not the time to do an entry on such a trade, as the weekly chart is topping for now, but it will continue to be a long-term investment.

XAU and GOLD STOCKS(3/27) Gold Bug index and gold stocks via the XAU are due for highs here and they may be in or we may see a secondary high. We are assuming that gold stocks will fall with the rest of the market into May 10. Rallies on the gold stock index eventually project 176 but that may be much, much later in the year.
MAY e-mini CRUDE (electronic)DAILY CHART TREND: Lower to 4156-4200 probably into April.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to 6300.
NEAR TERM: (4/1) We think a 3-wave rally needs to happen here and that another 690 point 5-wave decline will follow. We would like to see 4156 or 4200 but it would mean that no new highs come now. Cycle lows appear to dominate from the last week of April into the first week of May.
BIG PICTURE: (3/31) Crude confirmed a top by breaking 4900 and now it just a matter if we can get in a decent level. We think this is part of the pullback to 4150-4200 that we have been alluding to for weeks but it could unravel into something deeper. JULY BEANS (electronic)NEAR TERM: (4/1) Beans have only a 40% chance of hitting 966 with an extended target of 1013 having a smaller chance. We think beans will work toward filling the 917 gap area the rest of the week, and they may surprise people and make new lows next week if crude decides to fall to 4150-4200 into April 9. I will not talk about 842.50 on the downside until this market takes out 898 again.
BIG PICTURE: (3/31) We have resurrect the 5th-wave high of 1013 but we doubt it will happen that quickly unless crude takes off for 5200 this week. Cycles still seem weak to us April 1-9 after at least one more new high to 966. Hedgers should put some bean shorts on at the 964 and 1012 regions because we think this market will retreat once it finishes that pattern, and it could be done within a few days.
ECONOMIC, POLITICAL and GOVERNMENTAL CYCLES: AN UPDATE(3/31) There are two messy war cycles into Saturday, April 4 and with political tensions up between Japan and North Korea (you shoot down our missiles and it's war), we need to be on alert. The energy over the weekend for G-20 is anything but friendly and we expect there will be a lot of fighting and a lot of indecision. April cycles closely suggest that the stock market will not continue to rally then and seasonally tax day usually turns into a low. There may be rallies in places but the period from April 23-30 may be the start a large 3-wave retracement from the March 6-April 3 rally. Weather cycles this year are more on the rainy to floody side and that should increase problems in parts of the world that get hit.