Odds n Ends

One thing I find striking, is the difference between the weekly SPX and NasDog charts. The Dogs actually have an uptrend in place, with a higher low in March, and now a higher high. In contrast, the SPX is coming off of a lower low, and has not even made a higher high yet. It can get into an uptrend one of two ways (or more), by just continuing up and taking out the January high, that would give it a higher high, it would THEN have to pull back, make a higher pivot low, and THEN, take out the new high, to get into an uptrend. The other way, would be for it to simply stop here, and pull back, that would be a lower high, and set up a higher low pivot, and then start back up and take out what ever lower high in makes now, that would give it a higher low followed by a higher high. Either way, it has a lot of work to do.

The one troubling aspect of the NasDogs is the Money Flow, in the previous three "V" bottoms, Money Flow spiked higher during the first part of the run up, coming out of the bottom. Right now, it's almost going side ways, where's the power spike in money flowing into these things??? What it looks like to me, is the October to December 07' period, when we made the final highs, before we came crashing down. Not to worry though, I'm sure that earnings from INTC and GOOG next week, will get money piling into these things like crazy.

The SPX daily is runninng right into that declining trend line, with all the momentum indicator's declining as price continues higher. The A50, percentage of stocks above their 50 DMA, is as high as it's been on that three year chart.

I was asked what I do when the markets not open, hahahaha, not to fricking much, that's for sure, but when I don't go out to the ranch, I take a walk up in Beaver Canyon, the bottom picture, that I took yesterday afternoon, is the little hill I walk up, to try and get huffing and puffing enough to hack a lot of the tar out of my lungs, and when I get up to the top, I get that view in the upper picture, that's Delano peak in the back ground, at about 12,000 feet high.

When I get up there, I either contemplate about things like, why is there air, or, when the yakking talking tube heads are screaming about there being nothing but buyer's in the market (like the Italian Stallion on Bubblevision), I could swear there has to be a seller for every buyer, but, I guess not. Anyway, when I'm not in a contemplating mood, I do what every red blooded Ute does, and chase after big foot, http://www.aliendave.com/UUFOH_Bigfoot.html , hahahahaha, aaaahhhhh, these crazy fun loving Ute's!!

"Sam Collin's is reporting that Standard & Poor's points out that Jason Goepfert, of sentimentrader.com, has noticed a major shift in Rydex funds to their most bullish stance since August/September 2000 and October 2007 -- which were terrible times to invest. Since this is a recognized contrary indicator, it may be telling us that the rally has almost run its course and it's time to go to the contra-Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)."

MSW 4/9/09

Very, very, VERWY, rare occurance this week, the MSW ETF weekly signals are putting out new buys on seven, count'em, SEVEN, of the ETF's, MDY, VTI, QQQQ, FXI, IWM, EWC, and DIA. I mean, this thing only changes weekly signals, like, once a year?? Once every two years?? It also has a new weekly sell on GLD, I hope it goes down, so I can buy it at lower prices, before the shit hit's the fan down the road. Anyway, the software continues to act like the comedy club, for when you look at the charts, it has a confirmed buy on the daily chart of FAZ, and a buy on the FAS, and then when you look at the weekly signals, it has a confirmed buy on FAS, and a confirmed sell on FAZ, as I have said before, I prefer the weekly signals for any type of position trade, or, for that matter, swing trades. We get a lot of banks reporting next week, maybe it will get it's brain's straight by the end of next week.
I couldn't get any more from Omnitrader, it crashed my puter, and is claiming that some one else is using it, hahahahahaha, I guess I'm "invaded", so no daily or weekly signals on the Russell 1000, maybe I'll get it straightened out over the long weekend.

4/9/09

2:10pm: Weeeellll, hhmmmm, it looks like the banks, as represented by the FAS chart at the top, got a little excited going into the close, hahahahaha, geeze!! Looking at THAT chart, it was kind of disturbing to not see the Q's really playing ball with them, into the close. For some reason, 33 was acting like a wall today, I really don't see any resistance that would cause that, like I've said, there's not much up until the 34 area. Well, maybe INTC will give them a kick in the button tuesday.

The 5min chart has a good example of a "trap door" that set up, but didn't trigger. We got the obligatory 3-5 bars up in the DIRECTION of the gap, the 4th bar, at the arrow, was the "setup" bar, as it made a new high, then closed back down under the close of the prior bar, IE, a break out failure. BUT, the next bar never took out the low of that bar, thus not triggering the short.

The McClellan closed out that long this morning at 10:30MT at 32.73, for a gain of 79 cents, nice trade McCell, clap clap clap. I tried to alter the testing parameters on it, to sell short when it get's over 200, and buy it back when it hit's the Zero line, but it's not verifying, the rat, it keeps saying it dosn't reconize the word "OverBought", which is weird, because it reconizes it on the strategy that I have verified for it now. Anyway, the next trade will be a short.

Have a nice long weekend, and a happy Easter.

6:30am: AAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!! Such are the horror's of trying to "do the right thing"!!! I flagged TXT on the tuesday MSW update, http://cluelessqtrader.blogspot.com/2009/04/msw-4709.html , well, the offer was made this morning, for $21 bucks a share, Textron shares jump on report it may sell to Arab group hahahahahahaha!!! The sad part, is that it was starting to look good, I was looking for the pull back to $7, and yesterday it put on the infamous "hanging man" candle, hahahahaha, the one who got hung, was ME!!!!! Oh well, Such is life.
Anyway, futures are blowing up this morning, up about 2%, Q's currently up 49 cents at 32.44, which is a break out over the previous highs for the rally of 32.40, after Wells Fargo reported earnings early Wells Fargo boosts futures , and better than expected retail sales reports.

With all the partying going on, even a new record in unemployment claims couldn't throw a damper on it:

8:30 a.m.
U.S. 4-week avg ongoing claims up 146,750 to record 5.65 mln

With the Q's currently trading at new highs for the "rally", I think it's critical that we go UP after the open today, and hold the new highs. I would not want to see us open at new highs, and then like, sell off the rest of the day, that would be very baaaaaaaaad (damn sheep).

Good luck out there today.

MSW 4/8/09

7:30pm: Hahahahaha, boy, you learn some thing every day, I didn't even know they had a word for it, multicollinearity , hell, I can't even pronounce it. What it is, is the tendency for trader's to use the same information more than once, IE, having a Stochastic's and RSI on the same chart, IE, momentum indicators, or, moving averages and MACD, or, OBV and Money Flow or Accumulation/Distribution. Now me, I have all those on a lot of my charts, or in different area's, plus, if you vary the settings on the same momentum oscillator's, like the normal 14 period setting on the Stoch, but use a 2 or 5 setting on the RSI, you can offset some of the information sameness. Anyway, interesting.

No changes on the daily ETF screen. One thing I find interesting, is you notice the MSW has FAZ on a confirmed buy on this daily screen, well, on the weekly screen, it has FAS on a confirmed buy, hahahahahahaha, even the brainless software is completely baffled by bull shit, when it comes to the financials.

I actually ran the Russell 1000 screen twice, because I thought it was a mistake, but it still only come's up with one new buy, out of over a thousand stocks (I have some udder ones in there), ILMN, actually, it don't look that bad, I like the long tailed bar on it. I found none of the seven new shorts interesting.

4/8/09

2:30pm: I spent the good part of the day in the MarketRewind chat room, http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/ , very enjoyable, but I'm afraid I typed myself out, hahaha, plus, my puter started running very slow toward the end of the day, I had to reload after the close, and it's still running slow.

My whole day was on the five minute chart, very interesting day, even with the loooowww volume. I caught a "trap door" at the open, the circle on the far left, that's where you run three to five bars, in the DIRECTION of the gap, then get some sort of setup bars, in this case, the fourth bar in was a break out failure bar, as we took out the previous day's highs, and then failed to hold the break out, the take is under the close of the failed break out bar, with a stop some where above the high of the bar. Then, the pull back came down and sat right on the VWAP, very cool stuff. In the afternoon, we had a couple of avalanche setups, in the two middle circles. These were fairly decent setups, but the problem was that the setup bars got taken out on stupid spikes, so it would have been hard to stay with them. On an avalanche, you get a thrust bar down, like in the case of the third circle from the right, then you wallow up for three or four bars in a little mini bear flag, under the MA's, that first one had an excellent take it bar, with the little narrow range doji that was also an inside bar, but the subsequent spike on the next bar basically took the stop out. The second one was not as clean, but you could have taken the bar AFTER the spike bar, that was a little red inside bar, that would have been the setup bar, with the take under that bar. The pull back then set up on of my favorite, low risk, take it long things, number one, that little black horizontal line is the break out point for this rally, that's the high of the January and February highs, 31.68. We pulled down, BROKE THROUGH it, then closed up in a long tailed doji, and THEN, on the NEXT bar, they took it down, and took out the low of that prior bar, by like, a penny, and then started going back up, the take was right over the high of that little doji bar to the left, with a stop under the low of the bar. Nice stuff.

Regardless of how over bought I think we are, and what a bunch of BS this rally is, both the 60min and daily charts still look UP to me. The McClellan triggered a buy this morning, I didn't take a picture of it, and I don't remember the price, but, it's on a buy.

Lator gators.

MSW 4/7/09

I highly recommend you read Jeff Saut's article this week, http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm , far and away one of his best, especially about the former millionaires.

Oh, hell, read John Hussman while your at it,
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090406.htm , he didn't want to say it, but I have no problem, the RAPE of America continues, I'm not going to have to worry about it, because I won't be around, but I feel sorry for my kid's in their later years, and my grandson.

Excellent chart on Marty Chenard's site, http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm , showing how, compared to 2000-03', we aren't even close to a low, compared to the end of that bear market.


The daily ETF screen has no change's on it.

On the Russell 1000, it has a new buy on GM, HEY, GO FOR IT, hahahahahahaha!!! That's the thing about a brainless software, it don't know what's going on. On the other new buys and shorts, I don't really have an opinion, other than WTR, with all the yelling and screaming about the world running out of water (aren't the polar caps melting??? lotta water there), and BTB being involved, with the government (I expect to see that roach that used to be Vice President in there any minute, I forget his name, he brought a Noble some thing), I would, SHORT THE SHIT OUT OF THIS THING!

Speaking of Obamanomic's, we are getting a quick dose of them in our little town. Fricking gas jumped 20 cents, 20 FRICKING CENTS, in one day here, from 1.87 to 2.07, that's not his fault, it's the roach oil outfit's doing their usual pump into Memorial day. In another note, the Democrap's just shut down 3.5 million acre's here in Utah, to us, the PUBLIC (who own it), and to any energy drilling, which all of our's is natural gas drilling. You notice we almost hit an all time low on natural gas today, which is our source of winter heat here, WELL, YOU CAN KISS THAT PRICE GOOD BY!!!!

And the WORSE part, is I just got the updated cigarette prices from my smoke shop, http://www.cartonsofsmokes.com/ , the one's I buy, almost DOUBLED in price, due to the new tax. I notice the fricking premium brands are going for 50 stinking bucks a CARTON!!!!! I mean, spit spit, I'm going to have to quite smoking, for christ sake!!!!!! I mean, I know what this is all about, but you know, I've been smoking for 40 years, and I haven't died yet, WHY???? Glad you asked, the cancer that is caused by my smoking and drinking, eat's the FAT cells, and then the cancer cell's get so fat, they die of heart disease, HONEST TO GOD, I READ IT IN A MEDICAL JOURNAL (yea, the Cucca school of medicine, hahahahaha). Anyway, if I quite, I'm going to have to start eating a carton of twinkies every day, THAT'S CERTAINLY GOING TO BE HEALTHY!!!!!
One stock I didn't mention, that I kind of like, is TXT, I hear there's rumor's of a take over bid, it showed up on my volume spike list. I mean, obviously, this thing is seriously over bought, BUT, if you could get it back around that $7 level, there's really nothing but clear air up to the $13 "area", it reminds me a lot of my TQNT volume find last week. Anyway, it's just an idea.

4/7/09

2:00PM: Noooowww, waaaaiiit a minute, hold on, "they" (da "Street") kept telling me that the bottom was in, the market had "built in all the bad stuff", earnings had been reduced so much, we would be beating all those "reduced" earning expectations, etc etc etc, and THEN, on the very first day of earnings season, "they" sell the shit out of it??? WTF is THAT about??? Was somebody lying to me???? That can't be, da Street NEVER fricking lies, right? RIGHT?? Hahahahahaha!

Speaking of lying, and some thing that if I did it, I would go to jail for, with all the hub bub over JAVA and IBM, I checked the option's on JAVA, the April 5 strike price, the chart at the bottom, hahahahaha, that big volume spike in the red circle, is TWO DAYS before the announcement was made, YOU DON'T THINK ANYBODY KNEW ABOUT IT, AND WAS TRADING IT, BEFORE HAND, DO YA???????? You and me, we'd be in jail for shit like that. By the way, if you have the scanning software for this kind of volume spike in options, it would be really cool. I don't know of any FREE (the magic word) stuff.

Anyway, Lo and Behold, old dog's can learn new tricks, I decided to check out the VXN/Q setup, that BZ has been talking about, BZ Trader , where you have a chart of the VXN (the Q's equivalent of the VIX) and Q's up, and then buy or sell a cross of the two of them. COOL!! On the five minute charts, the VXN crossed above the Q's, at the exact same moment that the Q's broke the low of the day, at 11:10am MT, the VXN is the green line on the second chart above, I put a circle on it at the cross, and a circle on the regular 5 minute chart. Anyway, hahahaha, short city, I exited out during that mucky consolidation, about an hour later. Woooo Hooooo, it paid for BZ's free services, hahahahahaha!

I put the Fib's on the 60min chart, that cover's "the rally" from 3/10, I can see that the important retracement level's line up with some support area's in the Q's, like the 38.2% lines up with support around 29.64, the 50% line's up exactly on that 3/20 bottom at 29, and the 61.8% lines up exactly on the 3/16 bottom at 28.22, just some numbers to keep in mind. We haven't hit my "first" support area's yet, either than blue trend line, or the gap fill at 30.78. Anyway, that's what I'm looking at for support area's.

Wow, the Q's dumped going into the close, I guess they expect BBBY to miss earnings, or maybe AA missing so bad, they drag the whole market down with them.

7:15am: Some one asked me about the Uggies last night, UYG, well, I have no opinion on them, the MSW has the FAS as a confirmed weekly buy, wad ever. But, if you are bullish on bank stocks, the obvious choice is to take FAS over UYG, especially over the XLF. They all trade on the charts exactly the same. If you had like, 500 shares of UYG right now, you could sell out, take your $1500, and buy 200 shares of FAS, basically the same amount of risk capital in the trade. IF, the banks get hot, and go back to those early January highs, your 200 shares of FAS would be worth about $5,000, while the 500 UYG would be worth about $3,000, seem's like a pretty obvious choice of which one is the better "risk".

MSW 4/6/09

In the Russell 1000, we got 4 new buys, and 4 new short signals, I'm not really wild about any of them, but the CSX and SWK short's looks fairly decent. On the daily time frame, the MSW is on various buy signals on 350 stocks, and short signals on 185 stocks, so, the software is pretty bullish.

On the ETF's, there was basically no change on the daily charts, other than a confirmed sell on TAN, and confirmed buy on TBT, however, there was a very RARE signal on the weekly side, a new weekly buy signal on IWM and DIA. Of course, the week isn't over yet, so the signal could change over the next three days.

4/6/09

2:05pm: The 5min chart was kind of interesting this morning, we actually set up a "trap door" at the open, cool, that's where we go 3-5 bars in the DIRECTION of the gap, in this case, down. The 5th bar set up a little green hamari, or wad ever, right on the 200ma, the 5min 200ma don't mean squat to me, but I guess it must to some body, cause we stopped there. Anyway, the rally off that carried right up to the whole number, 32, da Q's looooove whole numbers, so they turned us back down, and took us right to that black horizontal line, and stopped, which is REALLY cool, because that black line is the break out level, the previous high for the year from 2/10, 31.68. I started partialing out of my short calls as we wallowed along that triple bottom (there's no such thing as a triple bottom or top, just consolidations waiting to break in a continuation of the prior move), until I had half off, then, I WAS, going to keep the rest of it, for the test of that "area" that I want to see, that I talked about this morning, on the 60min. SIGH, it wasn't to be, as the bull shit started again, so I exited the second half at break even on it, I guess I'll have to wait another day to make my fortune's.

What I'm going to be watching now, is the retest of the previous highs, at 32.40, I mean, I'm going to be REALLY interested if we get back to that area. What typically happen's, is we take it out by a few cents or what ever, wallow around, before turning back down, if we do that, I'm going to start loading up again. Tomorrow is turn around tuesday, so maybe we turn around from going down, to REALLY going down, hahahahahahaha!

The drop this morning was enough to alleviate the over bought condition on the 60min chart, the McClellan exited the short this morning at 11:30 MT, at 31.87, for a gain of 35 cents, it's next trade will be a long trade.

The daily chart is still way, way extended, so this little drop didn't do any thing to alleviate any over bought conditions on that. There's no doubt in my mind, that if we get over that 32.40, we're probably going up some more, sigh, wad ever. 34 is the high end number I've mentioned before.

CSCO, QCOM and JAVA contributed the most to the declines, while AAPL, RIMM (wad a monster, I guess the MSW was right) and GILD contributed the most on the up side. Going into the close, there was only about 28 stocks higher on the day in the Q's, so, well, I don't know what to make of that. The best sector was Biotech, the worst Gold and the financials.

I may not be in tonight, so there may be no MSW update, I'll probably post it before the open tomorrow.

Speaking of Sun Micro, they are doing their best Ying Yang impersonation, as they are trying to get their share holders (those that are left, hahahahaha) pissed off, turning down an offer they will never see again in my life time.

GEEZE, I have talked about this a hundred times before, and I'll probably do it a hundred more times, the animal that gets caught in the trap, is the TRAPPED animal, the animal that set's the trap, is the TRAPPER, geeze, even Mike Swanson called this a "Bear" trap. I have shown these two charts before, to show the difference:

THIS IS A BEAR TRAP!!!!!!

AND THIS IS A BULL TRAP!!!!!!

AIN'T SHE A CUTIE!!! CAREFUL BOY'S, THAT'S ONE BAD ASS TRAP, HAHAHAHA!!!!

6:15am: Futures have turned lower over night, down about .80%, Q's down about 22 cents, about four hour's ago, although MarketWatch would never know it, Futures clinging onto rally , hahahahaha, wad ever. Anyway, I looked and looked for some news, and AH HAH, I found it, Campbell Soup gets downgraded to neutral at J.P. Morgan , I mean, no wonder they are down, that depress's even me, come on JP, for god's sake, don't be UnAmerican!!

Anyway, we are REALLY drafting down right now, as Goldman just came out and down graded CSCO, wow, we didn't need that, Goldman is probably short, and couldn't get any earning's warning's to take the market down, so they decided to take matters into their own hands, hahahahaha!

Some one asked me where I get my future's data, off of TradeStation, or my IB platform. Or, you can watch CNBC or Bloomberg on the tube, even FOX business channel has it.

Anyway, that 60min chart at the bottom, we are obviously in an up trend, and it look's pretty damn good, if we get the pull back here, the most OBVIOUS target, is the gap fill from 4/1 at 30.78, by the time we get there, we will also be running into that uptrend line, that would be a very cool area to get long, again, very logical, therefore, it probably won't work worth a damn, hahahahaha!

The McClellan, at the top, went short friday morning at 10:30MT at 32.22, I included the updated Equity Curve on it, it continues to work very well. That's on a 60min time frame, which is the only time frame I can get a positive equity curve on the "system". One thing I want to bring up, is the McClellan works off of Advance/Decline differentials, a little bit different than the momentum system's that work off the RSI and CCI system's, they draw down when they trigger a trade against the prevailing trend, in this case, naturally, the trend is CURRENTLY, UP, therefore, short's are "possibly" going to be a draw down, but, of course, all trends come to an end, some time, and this may be the start of a new trend, who knows.

Speaking of the RSI and CCI system's, most of BZ's system's went short two day's ago, on the Q's, like the RSI Popper's, Kop Q's, and the Grand Slam, so, those system's are on a short, on the daily time frame's.

Good luck out their today.

Fun with Fib's

7:00pm: Just like my friend last week, TQNT, AEP had enooooor-mous, volume, the day before last. Is that the coolest looking double bottom you've ever seen, or wad??!!! So, the STOCH has crossed over to the upside, what this thing may be trying to do, is set up the infamous, "Big Double-U", eeeeeeeerrrrrrrr, excuse me, the "Big W", now, the traditional "take" on these things, is above the middle of the "Double-U", in this case, about 28.50+. BUT, when it get's there, where's your stop??? You know wad I mean, well, right now, it's under 24, you obviously don't want it under that, so, you either take it now, with a stop under the "Double Bottom", or wait for it to get over the middle of the "Big Double-U", with a stop under the double bottom, under 24. "Investing" is a bitch, ain't it??!!

5:45pm: I just got back from the Ranch, futures are up about 1/2%, I guess mainly because North Korea launched their missle, Obama is saber rattling, and NAUTRALLY, the MARKET LOVES WAR, hahahahahaha!!! Sigh, wad ever, ANYWAY, I heard through a friend of mine, who heard it through another friend, that an outfit that if you were engaged to be married, you would be Bespoken for, or, you could all ready be, "Bespoke" (a lot of crap trying to get around the legal stuff), said that since 2001, if you would have invested during earnings season, you would be down 26.7%, VS UP 2.87% the rest of the year.
SO, with those stat's in mind, and earnings season starting this week (we are in warning season right now), and, as I noted below, the S&P being more over bought on the short term, than it's been in three years, I guess I should just go all in, LONG, right now, HUH, wad da ya think??? I mean, it's just me, naturally, but I MUCH prefer to see us going into earnings season, very over sold, with low expectations, hoping we beat those low expectations, rather than going into earnings season, extremely over bought, expecting the market to beat the shit out of those low expectations. But hey, that's just me, invest anyway you want.

Congress votes themselve's a 92K raise this year, for more paper clips, and flying them home for their 300 holiday's a year, but, LUCKILY, the averge tax payer will be getting an additional $10 a week added to their check, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123861337915579305.html , hahahahahahahahahahahahaha, who are the REAL CROOKS in this country, come on now, the banks and the rest of Wall Street, or the FRICKING GOVERNMENT???!!!!!!

In relation to the post below, I should have looked at the A20 first (this is later), I actually prefer the A20 as far as short term over bought readings, and as I can see, we are more over bought than at any time in the last three years, at 93.4% of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 20dma. This, of course, doesn't mean we can't continue UP, hahahahaha, we did in March of 07', but I'll tell you what it does to me, it make's me verwy verwy cautious, about getting whole hog wildly bullish here, at least for the short term.

Looking at the A50 on the S&P 500, stocks above their 50dma, there's no question that we are over bought, the 80% area seems to be a "high" threshold, BUT, it dosen't always mean we HAVE to pull back. Looking at the three year chart above, yea yea yea, it stopped the January rally dead in it's tracks, looking further to the left, it also stopped the May of 08' and the final all time high in October of 07', dead in their tracks. BUT, looking further to the left, it DID NOT stop the rallies in April of 07' and October of 06'. Like I have said in prior posts, I think the way to look at this, is with divergences. I mean, right now we are over bought, and we haven't even gotten back up to the February and January highs (I don't consider that good), what I would want to see, to tell me the momentum is waning, is for us to get back to the Febrary highs, with the A50 going down, or even better, back to the January highs, with the same thing happening, what this would say, is that we are going higher, with less and less stocks participating in the rally, IE, da Boyz are using a few of the big cap's, to push us higher, trying to suck in Joe retail, before suddenly reversing us, probably with some humongeous gap down. Right now, I have no opinion on it, other than we are over bought, they may work that off like they did a week ago, with a couple of quick, sharp, reversal days, and then the rally resume's.

11:30am: One thing that bug's me man, about the current bear market, is that we've come down so fast, we've left no pivots or support or resistance area's, to "play" off of, during the "rally". The bear from 2000-03' actually left several pivots that ended up being Fibonacci retracement points, plus they worked out well as resistance area's on the subsequent bear market rallies. One chart I didn't do, because it takes several charts, is to show how each one of the bottom's from 00-03', when you put a Fib retracement chart on each of them, the bear market rally that followed set up perfect Fib retracements, either 32.2-50-61.8%, that set up each one of the next pivot highs, you can see a little of that in the middle chart, that has the Fib retracements for that period, on the over all time period.

So, right now, the nearest pivot's are waaaaaay up there, from that first drop out of 07' into 08', in the circle, I don't have a chart of it, but the "rally" in the circle stopped at almost a perfect 50% retracement. So, without pivot points, my only logical area's to look at, are the previous resistance areas from the last bear. I can see right now that the 38.2% retracement has resistance from the 98' and 01' bottoms, "around" 1000, the 50% retracement area has a ton of resistance area's, from the 98' highs, the 01' lows, the 02' highs, and a congestion area from 03-04', around 1120, those are area's I'll be watching.

It also seems to me, that a lot of people are waiting for the perfect "retest", like we had in 02'-03', to signal the end of the bear market. Well, in the top chart, I can see that we never did that at all, during all those various bear market's in the 70's, WE DON'T HAVE TO COME BACK AND TEST. It is interesting though, that the final all time low, the bear market low in 32-33', made the exact same bottom as the 02'-03' low.

One thing we DO have to do, to end the bear, is get back above those moving averages, the blue and the gray lines, I mean, beside's not EVEN being CLOSE to them, they are still plunging straight down, much less beginning to flatten out, or even better, make a cross. We got a loooooonnnggg way to go, before a real bull maket starts again.