5/15/09

THE BLOG HAS INFORMED ME IT'S TAKING A VACATION UNTIL AFTER "THE" LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!


As per Boyd's request, I have added a "Magic Trading Software Update" page to the link's, they may be a little sporadic (the updating that is).

5/14/09

2:30pm: I did a McClellan strategy with the Russell 2000, since they now have A/D's for it, since July of last year. The equity curve is positive, but boy, it sure get's some draw downs. It need's some "tweeking", which I'll probably do over the weekend. It's got the same parameter's as the Q McClellan, buy when it cross's up over the -100 level, and sell when it cross's +100, vicesa versa for the shorts. It look's like it has to have a 90-80 split, or some thing.

2:15PM: Kind of a blah day for a pre expiration day, wad ever. I checked out the stat's on the 60min. McClellan went it get's under 200, as I mentioned yesterday, when I said I thought it dosen't happen very often, it doesn't, however, it doesn't really test out very well, as what happens is, when we get a reading like that, it "generally" means we are WEAK (surprise surprise), and it usually get's followed by more draw down. REGARDLESS, I had taken a position going into the last 30 seconds of the day yesterday, and I held it, since we basically went up out of da chute. The strategy on the McClellan above, is to buy (on the next bar), when it get's under 200, and sell when it get's to the Zero line, so it bought after the first bar, at 33.28, and sold on the 5th bar at 33.61, it sounded good to me, so I exited my position then as well. I'm going to go back to the original strategy, because this thing dosen't trigger very often, and get's some humongous draw downs.

We had some decent weakness into the close, probably not to hot for the open tomorrow, although it was kind of surprising that the McClellan continued to go higher, as that's related to the A/D's. If you remember last year, the week after the May expiration is when we started the drop down into the depths of hell, to top that off, week's following expiration week's are "generally" down week's, plus we are dealing with the million's and million's of trader's who brought at the exact low on March 9th (I know it's true, because CNBC tell's me all the time, that everyone accept the dumb bastards brought that March low), and are looking for an excuse to take their profit's. So, with all that positive commentary, I imagine the stupid thing's are a raging buy.

MSW 5/13/09

6:00pm: No change on the daily ETF scan, however, it has issued some new short's on the weekly scan, most notably the XLK, OEF and MDY. The weekly signal is "generally" more reliable than the daily signal, the XLK of course is the Spider's Technology sector, which besides some of the QQQQ stocks, it has other Tech stocks like IBM, HPQ, EMC, etc etc etc. When you look at a chart of it, and the Q's, they move nit for nat. I notice it still has the Q's on a buy, well, when this thing issue's a signal on the weekly chart, it's like an ocean liner, it take's a hell of a move to get it to change signals.

The Russell 3000 scan came up with 7 new buys, and 58 new short's. I wish I would have taken a picture of RIMM to see why it has a new buy on it, I still had that SUG on there when I took the picture. When I look at RIMM's chart, it still look's like a stinking short to me, wad ever. ANYWAY, the software has been warning us for over a week now, that thing's were not right, as it kept issuing waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more short's, than buy's. In the future, I will definitely be keeping that in mind.

One of the few GOOD thing's I see on my Telechart of the Q's, is that we pulled back and sat on the middle channel of the 100 day Linear Regression channel, plus we are sitting right on the 34 EMA, which mean's, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!! But, it is sitting on it, 33 is the "area" I talked about, that is a two wave EQUAL MOVE, off the highs, on the 60min chart. SHOULD THEY DECIDE TO TAKE US DOWN, we have two unfilled gap's under us, both in the 31-31.63 "area", that would be a logical target area.

5/13/09

2:10pm: Welp, market's sold off today, because investor's were disappointed to find out, that with the highest unemployment in 26 years, a RECORD number of new foreclosure's last month, and a RECORD drop in housing prices last month, they were shocked, SHOCKED I TELL YOU, to find out those dumb ass consumer's weren't spending money!!!!! HEY, GET OFF YOUR ASS, AND GO INTO DEBT!!!!! (EEEEERRRRR, MORE DEBT!)

Anyway, I spent the day with an old friend, Inkey, or some time's called Intel, or INTC. I was watching this thing last night after the close, during AMAT's earning's release. It's been finding support at 15, and I was kind of half ass hoping it would drop down there, so I'd buy it, but it didn't, so I shut down, about 30 seconds before the CEO came out and said their order's were tracking higher than the estimates this past month, hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!! God I hate the markets! Anyway, I get in this morning, and I still have the after hours chart on Inkey, so I put on the premarket as well, and Lo and Behold, a fricking descending triangle jump's right out at me, on the 5 min. Anyway, long story short, I got the SOB back for it's indiscretion last night, and shorted it under .35, and covered for my week at .15, 20 cents, hahahahahahaha, take that you butt hole!!! It then actually had an even better short setup when it rallied back up, and couldn't get over that .35 level, AGAIN, in the heavy circle, and I went for it again, and got ANOTHER .20 cents, hahahahahahahahaha, take that and THAT, BUTT HOLE!!!!! Hey, look, if you can't have any fun doing this, then your not having any fun. There was actually a nice little avalanche setup in the lower circle, but I was to busy flipping off the CEO of Inkey.

HOWEVER, I'm not having any fricking fun with the McClellan, it closed at about -235, now, I haven't done any test's on that, I may do it later, but that don't happen very often, and is probably a buy the world on the Q's, although I still personally think we are going to do that 38.2% retracement I talked about yesterday, down to the 31.60 "area". Regardless, being the dumb ass I yam, I brought a little position into the close on that McClellan number, hopefully to sell it by the open tomorrow.

5/12/09

6:00pm: There was no change in the ETF scan. The Russell 3000 scan came up with 14 new buys, and 31 new shorts, most of the shorts look pretty good, including that SUG on the chart. The shorts not shown are SCSC, GNW, TLB, NYM, ENR, TRW, PACR, DAN, VSH, WBS, ED, GSAT, MVL, MTSN, BK.

2:20pm: Forget the charts, HAH, AMAT basically met their earnings, but INTC came out after the close and said their order's for the second quarter are ahead of predictions, Q's are up a little, about 17 cents. The McClellan, at the bottom, is in draw down mode, the dirty rat, if it can't rally, and get back to positive before it close's the trade out, which don't look to stinking likely, as it brought the farm at 34.96, I may start tweeking with it after this trade. I found out that TradeStation now has A/D's for the Russell 2000, so, COOL, I'm working on a McClellan stategy for that thing, that I can lose money on, hahahahahahahaha!

I was going to talk about pull back projection's on the Q's, on the daily chart at the top, but it may not happen now. Wad ever, there may be some support around 33, but what's more interesting, to me at least, is that a 38.2% retracement of the entire rally off the March bottom, would take us back to 31.63, which if you remember, was that break out "area" on the Q's that I talked about for so long, that's the area of the January and February highs. That would be a logical place to take a shot at it, in my opinion.

My man Clive, Corcoran that is, usually doesn't get involved with the sleaze in their UK Government, but it's getting so bad he felt compelled to mention some thing this morning:

"US readers may be missing out on some rather egregious home-grown sleaze which is currently providing a lot of easy pickings for journalists who are anxious to portray the British parliament in the worst possible light. Just one anecdote will provide the flavor. Members of Parliament have been revealed, via leaks in the Daily Telegraph , as engaging in all kinds of distasteful (and probably in some cases illegal) abuses of claiming for re-imbursement of expenses for supposedly performing their parliamentary duties at the taxpayer's expense.
One MP claimed about $3000 for work undertaken to fix his moat and another claimed a similar amount to have fake Tudor beams installed at his residence.
I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that politicians have been "gaming" the system just like, in their own fashion, the bankers played fast and loose with other people's money.
Under the Blair/Brown era the tacit assumption, which has been made by the Westminster/City axis, is - Only little people play by the rules.
I am reminded of Leona Helmsley who was widely reported to have said that only little people pay taxes.
She ended up in jail for tax evasion.
I would bet the entire net worth of the UK government that no politicians or bankers will end up in jail for their ongoing "indiscretions" although clearly many should."

I mean, far be it from me to say there's any sleaze bag's residing in Washington, but I can't fathom why "they" think I should pay $500,000 a year, to fly Pelosi back and forth between Washington and Haight/Ashbury, in that private jet. I guess she need's a private jet to be able to change back into her Syrian terrorists garb.

6:00am: Here's a little exercise for an early morning turn around tuesday (which reminds me, if the general market "turns around", and goes up, doesn't that mean the Q's will go down????), the Q's opened last week with the weekly RSI2 indicator at 99.22. Now, far be it for me to say da Q's might be a "little" over bought, but in the whoooooooole history of the Q's (well, actually, going back to 1/1/2000), the weekly RSI2 on the Q's has only closed over 99 three time's, not counting last week. If you had shorted the Q's each time the weekly RSI2 closed over 99, and bought them back when it closed under 20, all three trade's were big winner's. Naturally, past history does not guarantee future results, blah blah blah.

Future's are up about 1/2% this morning, I haven't looked at the new's, but it's probably due to more corporate welfare from our maaaaaaaaaaaaaavelous government.

MSW 5/11/09

6:30pm: There was no change on the ETF scan, the Russell 3000 had 9 new buys, and 40 new shorts, obviously the software is extremely bullish. The shorts not shown on the focus list are ALJ, AOB, NEM, MGRC, PSEC, RDN, GSOL, ZINC, MBI, KSWS, KNOT, TLEO, FMBI, CAM, XTXI, UMPQ, NILE, LMNX, and CADX. The signal on AEO, on the right chart, is one day to late, I wish I would have seen that dragonfly doji friday.
The Q's gapped down with the market, then blasted off into nether nether land, very strange stuff, they were going down while the general market went up, and today they go up, while the general market went down.
I'm very depressed, my computer went out again today, for the one computer guru I know, it says it has a "blue screen" error, thus, the reason I'm blue. I went out a couple of hours before the close, the last I saw, the McClellan was diverging against the q's, IE, it was going down while the Q's were going up, and since the A/D on it, is from the total stocks in the COMPX, it mean's a few big caps were driving the Q's higher, while the general NasDog's were pretty weak. I may post some thing in the morning, if I can keep this thing running.

MSW Weekly Swing 5/10/09

The MSW ETF weekly swing's came up with 7 new buys, and 1 new short. All the one's on the charts look interesting, UNG, UYG, PPH and DBC. Looking at the confimed buy's and short's under that list, most of them look interesting as well (a "confirmed" buy or short means the software was already on a buy or short signal, and issued a new signal in the same direction).

The Russell 3000 scan came up with to many to mention, over 90 new buys and 40 new shorts, but some of the new buy's I'd be interested in included NTCT, SGMS, KCAP, RDNT, HEES, CCO, CLTX, AUTH, RATE, TDY, BKC, WTR, UFCS, HWAY, DST, TISI, and NGPH. None of the short's was anymore interesting than shorting one of the index's to hedge your long bet's. One thing I noticed, there seemed to be an inordinate number of Semi's on the short list (what happened to NVDA?).

Sunday Stuff

I totaled up the results of the MSW "Swing" and "7 Day Move" profiles from last sunday, http://cluelessqtrader.blogspot.com/2009/05/msw-weekly-update.html , and as I would expect on an UP week, the long's greatly outperformed the shorts, the long's had 37 winners and 13 loser's, I'm EXTREMELY pleased with that result, the short's had 18 winner's and 33 loser's, I'm also EXTREMELY, aaaaaahhhhh, eeeeeerrrrr, OK, so it weren't so stinking hot. But, of course, if you kept to decent STOP parameter's, the software came out a HUGE winner. I will be continuing this little study for a few more week's. I'm especially pleased that it was correct on the TSCM short, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah, just a personal thing.

IF, we don't have a coming "failure" week, these are a few ETF's I am looking at, as possible longs. I would classify a failure as if we gap down tomorrow, and then go down out of the chute, gap up, and then go down all day, gap up, and THEN go up, but close below last week's bar by the end of the week, etc etc etc.
One thing I've noticed in the 100 or so ETF's I looked at, is the number that have flagged up to their declining 50 week moving average, and put little red bar's on last week, hmmmm, not to hot looking. Naturally, most are very over bought, but, I've been saying that, and they can stay that way, as long as da Boyz can keep the pump going.