I have the SPY chart up, because I have been seeing an inordinate number of technical blogger's talking about the "possible" head and shoulder's developing in the SPY and SPX. Any time I see this, it raise's a red flag, as naturally, when ever every one see's some thing, it more than likely ain't gonna happen! BUT, my personal take, is that the possiblility is definitely there, and I need to keep it in mind. The "time frame" is showing a "possible" completion toward the end of July or early August, as the left shoulder was about a month long, so the right shoulder "should" be close to the same length. This fit's with me, as next month is earnings season, and by the end of the month, "WE", should have an idea if earnings projection's going forward are going to justify the massive bounce off the March bottom, or if it's just all bull shit, and we head back down into the fall, to bring valuation's back into a more realistic area. By the way, earnings kick off the week after this coming week, with Alcoa reporting on tuesday the 7th. The bulk of earnings starts the following week with GE reporting on monday the 13th, and the NasDog's kicking off with INTC on the next day.
I anticipate the coming week to have a positive baisis, as we alway's seem to have that heading into a Holiday weekend, my only concern may be the reaction on monday morning, to the Cap and Crap TAX passed by Congress yesterday, it will be interesting to see the reaction to it. I personally own a little UNG, trying to make some of my heating bill's for next winter, when they increase about 400%, in the latest BTB tax burden being added to the country, as the Democrap's seem to think that economic's 101 state's that you always raise tax's during the great Recession. I can only imagine that one of the requirement's of the bill will be that all Baby Boomer's over 55 will be required to wear a mask, that force's us to re-inhale the nasty CO2 emmision's we create, that are necessary to keep plant's alive. THIS, of course, will solve all the problem's with Social Security and Medicare, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, NICE FRICKING PLAN BARRACK!!!!!!!
ANYWAY, back to the SPY, I anticipate we probably go up, and get a lot of people to shit can the H&S idea, but as long as we don't take out the high's of the rally, the idea still has merit. The popular Neck Line is at 88, or 880 on the SPX, but I also see a sloping neck line, that will continue to raise the level of a break of that neck line, should we go up. As long as we don't make new high's, or even BETTER, should we go up and then make a lower high before turning down, the neck line to the top of the head is about 7.6 points, or 76 points on the SPX, which would project to a drop of 76 points on the SPX when we break under the 880 level, which takes us down to about 800, or 80 on the SPY. All of this depends on not making new highs, if we do all bet's are off.
One thing I see, is under 88 and we have a lot of "clear air" down to that 80 level, there are a couple of "slowing up" pivot area's, but we would have a decent shot at a pretty fluid move down to that level, should the power's that be, decide to take us there. I circled that little doji on tuesday, as that was a very low risk long entry, in case you were at all interested in the markets. The big move down on monday took us right into a saddle of two Linear Regression channel's, the 60 day and the 40 day, and it was also a back test of the 200 dma, and on tuesday we took the 200 dma out, scared the shit out of everyone, and then closed us higher. A take on the close would have been low risk, with a stop under the LOD, I included the chart of the S&P 500 "Stocks above their 20ma", to show how we got over sold that day as well. Anyway, that was then and this is now, so it don't matter any more.
The daily "7 Day Moves", or swing trade profile, on the MSW, has some interesting idea's, it has the NasDog's, some times called the Q's, as a new buy, while it has the XLK, the same exact thing, accept it has some udder Dog's in it as well, as a new short, PICK'EM, hahahahahahahaha!!!!! One thing it continue's to hate is IBM, in the lower right hand chart, which is a main component of the XLK, and not in the Dog's. It has a new buy on DEB, the Wisdom Tree Europe Dividend fund, I only put that up for Deb. I used the SPY above, rather than the Q's, as the NasDog's are just out of control, with all the bull shit running amuck about the cell phone craze, such as PALM, RIMM, AAPL, I've even seen shit moving like MOT and MRVL, not to mention all the buy recommendations flying around for NOK, TXI, S, etc etc etc. I guess the thesis is, is that with U-6 getting ready to hit 18%, people are going to be buying cell phones like crazy, calling around to try and find job's, rather than use their dwindling funds to buy stupid thing's like, FOOD!!!!! They certainly won't be able to drive around and look for work, no way will they be able to afford the soon to be coming $5/GAL gas, after the Dem's get Cap and Crap passed. I watched interveiw's with three refinery CEO's last night, and they seemed to agree that if the damn thing get's passed, their only option will be to shut down their refineries here, and either just import it, or try and make deal's with third world countries who are dying to have them build new refineries in their countries. Either way, it look's like a stinking great idea.
The weekly MSW is, naturally, completely rebunking my railing above, by insisting I short oil, with new buys on DUG, DDG and ERY, hahahahaha, roach fricking software!!!!! It love's the Euro (IE, it must hate the dollar, which directly contradick's the oil short), and for you people looking for some alpha in the Q's, good luck, it has a short on PQY. The only good thing it did, is that it must have been watching the new's, and is trying to throw it back in the face of the Cap and Crap Dem's, by shorting GWO, the Global Warming ETN, hahahahaha, way to go software!!!!!
