WHAT IN THE HELL IS THIS?????????

This past week had the lowest volume of advancing issues, on a weekly closing basis on the NYSE, EVER, since the great recession started, FAR AND AWAY THE LOWEST VOLUME!!!!! I drew line's down to the SPX on any previous close's under 300, and circled the area on the SPX where the market continued to advance in the face of these declines, it happened about a half dozen times, out of the current 20 times this has occurred, but as you can see, the advance's were a little anemic at best, and four of those time's it happened after the market had fallen, not coming off a current high.

There were a couple of time's when the ratio of advancer's to decliner's was lower, in the two circles in July/August of 07' and March of 08', and the market advanced upward after those two times, but again, they occurred after a market decline, and after we were starting to advance.

This, like, totally freak's me out man, I don't know what to make of it.

MSW Core Portfolio Stat's

One thing I do with the MSW is run a Core Portfolio testing strategy with it, in this case it's based on the signal's generated by the MSW on the daily time frame, with the "DEFAULT" systems, the signal generator that use's 59 different trading strategies to generate buy's and short's, or sell's if you want to look at it in that manner, but the results are based on shorting a stock when the short signal is generated.

Now, the report, and the result's, are based on signal's generated back to January 1 of 2000, and the results of course, are based on taking each and every trade when the signal is fired off. If you took each and every trade, the average APR for the period is 51.2%, BUT, this of course, is entirely misleading, as this is based solely on the trade's made on the various stock's that fired signal's in each yearly period, and not on an allocation schedule that you would have to determine, your self, to each and every trade. I plan on doing some thing like that, on a testing basis, but is going to take a LOT more time. Also, a lot of the ETF's in the study have not been around very long, so there's not much of a track record in them, although I have to say, on a PERSONAL basis, I have been doing all right with stuff like HYG and JNK, but that's just a personal thing, I find bond's pretty easy to trade, eeeeeeeerrrrrrrrr, "INVEST", in.

The more important thing that jump's right out at me, is that I can throw out over half of the stocks right off the batt, by just looking at the stat's, mainly by starting with the APR. It can't trade INTC, IYR, CAT, SSO, MOO, or IBM, worth a crap, or, for that matter, it trade's the Q's a lot, but only generated a 14% return, so, forget it (well, actually, I guess you "COULD" use the signals, it's just that the results pale in comparison to some of the others).

It made decent money on some of them, but only generated a very small number of trades, like, MSFT for instance, there was only two trades in 9 years, but it hit both of them.

One thing it has been doing, is picking up on some of the newer ETF's, like DBC, DGP, DXO, EFA, and trading them quite well. It also seem's to love trading AA, AAPL, GLW, GNK (which has a great dividend), and GS, meaning I should concentrate my effort's in those stocks.

One way to pick up on stock's like these, that it trade's well over longer periods of time, is to run the Russell 3000 through it, with a filter on the APR as the signal generator. I don't do this right now, because it take's so long to run the test's, like, the normal MSW I show on the weekly scan has a test period of 600, meaning the test's only go back about two year's, rather than the nine year's I run on this Portfolio. I plan on doing this at some point, when I can find the time, I'm just so damn busy this summer, I haven't gotten to it yet.

?

Just fooling around, but I guess, if Bob is talking possibly about the FXI below, I guess you could, IN THEORY, make a case that it could go to zero. It has pretty strong resistance at 40, so maybe it's capped off here, and over the next few month's it "COULD" set up a head and shoulders. I have the neckline above at about the 22 level, which is about 18 points down from the 40 level, which would give you a target of 4 bucks. BUT, if he's looking for a neckline at that 20 level, then, yea, you could say that it "COULD" go to zero, as that would be 20 bucks off the 40 level, and then the equal projection would be another 20 bucks down from the neck line, or, aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh, ZERO, hahahahahahahahaha!!! Good Ole Bob.

7/3 5:15pm: Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! Robert McHugh is certainly cheery this weekend!!!!!! Geeze, and I thought my little fun chart below was evil, HAH! This is his comment's in his latest attempt to get me to re-subscribe:


"We have identified a potential dangerous pattern in several international stock market indices, which we present in this weekend's expanded market newsletter to subscribers, available at the weekend button at http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/ . How dangerous? If they become confirmed patterns, we are talking about downside targets near zero. This is not to be alarmist. At this point, these are possibilities, not probabilities. In this weekend's newsletter, we discuss where prices have to head for confirmation, which would mean the probability of these downside targets being reached becomes high.

The situation at this point is similar to standing outside, and seeing some of the darkest clouds you have ever seen gathering over the horizon. Will a tornado accompany this storm? Will the storm veer off and miss us? Do not know at this point, but the risk is there.

These dangerous patterns are about 80 to 85 percent complete. We urge you to study these charts on pages 20 and 21 at the Weekend button at http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/ and plan accordingly.

With the modern interconnectedness of international markets and economies, these patterns are alarming for U.S. as well as international investors. "

He has an interview with Jim PupLava on Financial Sense this weekend, http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html , I haven't listened to it yet, but I plan on it. They also have Peter Schiff on the show, with Bob in such a bad mood, I can't imagine what Pete's going to say, hahahahaha, woooo weeeeee!

HEY, CRUDLOW!!!!!!!

HEY CRUDLOW, GRANDMA AND THE REST OF US CONSUMER'S HAVE SOME THING FOR YOU AND YOUR "GREEN SHOOT'S" BULL SHIT:

10:16a
Consumer confidence falls on gloomier jobs view

Some Idea's off the MSW List

One of the thing's I do with the MSW is to go through all the chart's on the list, and check them out on a different time frame. All the following charts are new buys and shorts on the "DAILY" MSW scan that I posted yesterday, and rather than showing them on a daily chart, I'm looking for decent looking charts on a WEEKLY time frame, that confirm's the buy or short signal on a longer term time frame.
The following charts are stock's that showed up as buy's on the daily scan, that look pretty decent on a weekly time frame:

This is NOT, a decent looking chart, but I find it REALLY interesting, in that this "thing" tested it's March low, and bounced back up, to leave a long tailed dragon fly type doji candle looking thingey. Very nice R/R setup, as I wouldn't want it under those March low's.

This is very typical of almost all the oil stocks, which, for the most part, I like.

Same thing with the shipper's, both the dry and bulker's.

Now, the following chart's are of stock's that showed up as "SHORT'S" on the daily scan, but have a decent looking weekly chart, for a Long play. The theory behind this, is that the thousand's of short term trader's looking for a quick MOMO play on the daily time frame, will get suckered into trying to short these, and will get their ass handed to them, when the better looking long term chart pattern force's them to scramble to cover those short's. Yea yea yea, it's just a theory:

Here's two I REALLY like the look of:

Here's two chart's that showed up as short's on the daily time frame, and look like a pretty good short on the weekly time frame as well:

This thing is probably the most obvious short I've ever seen, for with Pelosi, Boxer, Franks, Schumer, Dodd, Geithner and Waxman running the world, MANKIND is obviously doomed, DOOMED I TELL YA!!!!!! Beside's that, it seem's to be having a little, aaaaaaahhhhhh, trouble, getting over that $9 "area".

Late Late PS: Warning, Bulkowski, http://thepatternsite.com/Blog-Jun09.html#P18 , has had this as a buy for weeks, based on an ascending triangle on the daily chart, with a 70% chance of a breakout higher. Should be interesting to see what wins, the daily, or the obviously more clearly and intelligently defined weekly pattern, hahahahahaha, HAH!

I only bring this thing up, because it appear's to me that some of the big boys are trying to game the FLY, http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/ , hahahahahahahahaha, as he's probably brought a few million share's of it. YUCKO, that chart is so uuugggggillly that it looks like some thing I brought!!!!!!!!!

Well, I do the same thing with the WEEKLY MSW scan, accept the exact opposite, I look at all the daily charts, to try and get a confirmation, or, nonconfirmation.

Good luck out there, see you in the fall if this stupid blog ever get's off vacation.

Later PS: What's with the huge volume spike in a lot of the Semi's friday??? I know it could have some thing to do with the Russell rebalancing, but, I mean, it happened in dozen's and dozen's of them, one of the stand out's was AMAT (is Russell moving them into the small cap index, along with INTC?????), a few of the other's were ISSI, MIPS, SSTI, LLTC, SIMG, MXIM, MEMS, LSCC, CCMP, HITT, LAVA, MCRC, PMCS, SMSC, there's ton's more, it make's me think there has to be some thing going on, other than just the Russell thingey, I have to admit, it's got me Semi interested.