AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

This is just for my own personal records, so I can refer back to it in a number of years, and tell my Grandson how I lost all his inheritance in Alcoa, as I sit there drinking coffee out of my CUP with a HANDLE, that cost me $12! Of course, that will be in my (MORE) GOLDEN years, and I will probably be very CROSS!

Just on a none personal note, that walk it has done down the 200 sma is one of my favorite patterns, and heaven forbid if I should take it, if it cross's back up above it.

YUCKO

Bryan Marsal has my vote to be the "Financial Czar" of the US, http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/unwinding-lehman-brothers/ .

6:46pm: THIS, could explain the extra 15 minutes of trading on thursday, did the Goldman trading platform code get hacked, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha???? http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/is-case-of-quant-trading-industrial.html?dsq=12182382#comment-12182382

My God, every body, and I mean E-V-E-R-B-O-D-Y, is talking about the stinking head and shoulder's on the DOW and SPY. Like I mentioned in the post back on 6/27, with every body looking at some thing, there is just no way in hell, NADA, ZILCH chance, that it's going to happen (TA-DA, there, I just guaranteed it will happen, hahahahahaha!!). I didn't mention the NasDog's, some times called da Q's, as they are in their own little world right now. It seem's every one is convinced that AAPL, RIMM and PALM are all going to be coming out with new edible cell phone's, which will be really cool, as all those poor soul's waiting in the soup lines will be able to take some of the hunger edge off, as the line's will probably be quite long. Beside's, they won't need the stinking phone's anyway, there won't be anyone to call to see if they have any work available. Stupid Dog's.
Anyway, with me interrupting the Blog's vacation time, it's obvious that I'm very interested in what's going on, I'm hoping we have a huge move coming up, and we get out of this obnoxious range. The first thing I notice on the chart above, is that after the big down day on Thursday, the RSI2 at .42 and the STOCH at 3.26 are both very over sold, and the CCI diverged against price all day Thursday, SO, we "COULD" get a bounce coming up, to relieve that situation. The whole key to how this pattern play's out, is what DA NEW BOYZ think they need to do, in order to hurt as many player's as possible, DA NEW BOYZ being JPM, GS, MS, BAC, and C, as the PPT is now using them as their new conduit for our tax money, being used by Tax Cheating Timmy and Uncle Ben, to try and hold the market's up, as talked about numerous times at Zero Hedge. It's just possible that the mysterious extra 15 minutes of trading time that the NYSE, in it's infinite wisdom, decided to add after the end of trading on Thursday, before a holiday mind you, was engineered by the PPT to load up at lower levels, in order to drive us higher out of the chute with the open of futures tonight, chasing any idiot misguided short's that loaded up going into the close. That may result in the light blue senario in the chart below, with the ? mark on it, although for the life of me, with the volume we've been having, I don't see where they could get the short covering they need to take us higher, although with JPM trading over 3 million contract's at a wack by themselves, they could probably do it alone. I should probably mention that if "they" take us over the high from wednesday, the whole pattern is negated and we go into another trading range for the next six months.

This is a "POSSIBLE" senario I'm looking for, this is the Tony OZ setup for playing head and shoulder pattern's, Tony of course was the individual that the book "The Wizard of OZ" was originally written about. First off, the black (1) and (2), is the Elliott wave count that a lot of the waver's are looking at, such as http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987 , so, if that's a true count, we "could" have the wave 3 down coming, which is ALWAYS the longest wave, which would negate every thing I have up there, as we just go crashing through the neck line into the depths of hell, to eventually fill my target for the SPY of 5 bucks. A note about the neck line right here, there's an unfilled gap from May 1 at 88.07 waiting for us, so that is the MAJOR number right now.

Now, beside's the H & S, this thing is also a descending triangle, which, in my simple little brain, (as one of my commentor's so eloquently pointed out), make's it easier to try and figure out. These thing's usually get a five count, waver's also use an a-b-c-d-e count, wad ever, the KEY point, naturally, is number 2, that's where all the action is going to happen. Tony's whole theory, and I agree, is that we break the neck line, which get's all the Jonny come lately to the rally selling like crazy, the bear's pile in, including the Elliott waver's who think we are getting the wave 3 down rolling, and then, "magically" (can you spell PPT???), we start back up. This set's up the "true" short, and that's at point 3, in the circle, when we go back up and test the upper limit of the triangle. It dosen't matter where you take it at that point, that would depend on your "risk" parameter's, me, I would probably want to see some kind of candle topping pattern, or some thing, hopefully, like when we get there, we are also over bought again.
Now, if this thing works (hahahahahahaha, fat chance Gomer) at point 3, I would personally throw out points 4 and 5, for if the bear's get their Mojo going, we may just go through point 4, I'm only showing them in case they decide to drag us out some more, and frustrate as many as possible, which is extremely likely, as I anticipate that we probably grind around inside this thing during earning's season, before breaking down, maybe into August.

A few note's here, about failure pattern's on this thing. The first one is at point 2, there's a chance, however small, that we just blast right through it, in which case I will miss it, as I'm not jumping into a meat grinder short at that point. My preferred take on this whole thing, is the green line's and circle over on the far right, this can happen at ANY point, 2, 4, or the break down after 5 like I show it. If we break through 2, there's about a million to one chance that we came back and "BACK TEST" the break down point of the neck line, around 88, this, to me, would be the best chance to get a relatively decent low risk short entry. If we go back up through the 88 "area", and stop out, we "may" back test the (1) "area" again, which would provide another low risk entry.

Another thing, I just have simple little line's on the chart, naturally we are actually going to be all over the map on the actual candle's and price chart's, this is just a map, of sorts. The one thing that would negate the whole fricking pattern, is if we stop at one of those support level's at the thin red horizontal lines, set up another low pivot point, and start back up before testing the neckline, there's a high probability we do that, as that would TOTALLY frustrate and screw with every one's mind. If that happen's, I would just move the triangle UP, with the neck line at what ever NEW bottom we have, and start over with the same count, with a narrower triangle.

There's another senario as well, and that is that this whole thing is a huge trap, and the count is wrong. The correct count in a trap, would be that the current point 2, is actually point 1, which mean's that point 5, rather than being on the upper edge of the triangle, would be on the neck line, in which case, we would get a huge trap with a break of the neck line at point 5, and then turn up and go blasting through the upper line of the triangle, never to see these level's again in my life time.
Another thing I will be watching, is if we break out over points 3 or 5, which would stop me out on a short. There's a good chance we could continue up at that point, in which case I will be watching for the REVERSE of the green line's and circle, in order to get long, which would be a back test of the upper line of the triangle.

Anyway, I'm really getting interested here, I see a whole shit pile of way's I can lose money, Woooooooo Hoooooooo!!!!!!!!!

Weekly MSW

The Weekly MSW scan has about three time's more new short's on it, than buys. It wants to buy the TZA, the small cap 3X bear fund. It also wants to buy the new VXZ, with is a future's buy on the VIX, which fit's with the bearish view. Interestingly (at least to me), it make's a perfectly logical buy, it says buy the UltraShort crude index SCO, and, buy the Airline index FAA, hahahahahahaha, make's sense, if oil goes down the airlines will go up, at least temporarily, before every thing get's crushed. It still love's the Euro, it wants to buy the Rydex Inverse fund REC, and the UltraShort Utility fund SDP. As far as new shorts not shown, it wants to short the base metal's BDG, plus SLV and GLD, it hate's shipping SEA, the world market's VT, the large cap 3X bull fund and the small caps, BGU and TNA, TIP, meaning it dosn't think inflation is coming, at least for now. Some notable short's on stocks include JPM, MCO, SNDK, QCOM, CERN, TSON, CCMP, OSTK, MOS, AMTD, MA, LD, DECK, NEM, EXPD, DIS, SHLD.

There's a bunch more ETF short's as well, check them out your self.

The daily scan came up with some interesting trade's, it says to buy short term bond's, which fit's with Bob's bearish view I mentioned friday night. It also has a buy on one I hadn't heard of, QAI, which is a Multi-Strategy hedge fund tracker. It want's to short the Ultra Short material index, UYG, and gasoline, UGA, THANK GOD, is the gas run up over for this summer?????

Naturally, just double click the chart's and you get the full view.