7/18/09

Congressman Stearns: Mr Paulson How Do You Have Any Credibility?
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/07/breaching-social-contract.html
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090720.htm (very, VERY, WISE, words)




If I were day trading this, and it was a five minute chart, I'd take a shot at it over that high just above 95, we just came off a higher high, we just had a cool little four bar pull back, and then took out the pull back bars, in one big bar, it looks up to me. Of course, I'd be looking for a way to get in, after missing the take it after the engulfing bar in the circle, you know that bar, that's the one that Larry Crudlow and everyone on CNBC brought the market, because all they talk about, is how far we've come off the bottom, as in, YOU DID BUY THE LOW, RIGHT, YOU DUMB BASTARD!!!!!!!!
Anyway, it would have been nice to have a little volume confirmation on the current bar, but, you can't have every thing (or, caaaaaaaannnnn you!). What would be pretty cool, would be a narrow range bar on the next one, setting up a 1-2-3 continuation pattern, where we get the first big thrust bar (this one), then a narrow range rest bar, with a big continuation bar after it.
One of the reason's I like the risk here, is because we pretty much have clear air above if we can break out here, back up to the 200ma about 120, or 1200 on the SPX, there's really no resistance waiting for us, back to the left, other than that little tail at about 100, plus, the whole number 100 does have a tendency to act as resistance a lot (that's called PAR). PLUS, the first pull back off of a new high, is, ALMOST, ALWAYS (those are disclaimers), BUYABLE!
If this were a day trade, my stop would be under 95 some place, OR, if we set up a narrow range continuation bar, it would be under the low of that bar. Regardless, I'll PROBABLY take it if we break that high, with a stop under what ever the low of the bar is, I just love giving money to Goldman and JPM when they run the stop, the roach's.
I just have to mention, I DO NOT, like the inside day HANGING MAN doji on the daily chart, I have no idea what they plan on doing with that. A break under the low of that, to start the week, would NOT be good, BUT, if we go higher, the low of friday could be used as a stop as well, wad ever. "THEY", seem intent on supporting Obamanomic's, that is, where you do every thing just the complete opposite of what is traditionally thought of as the correct way to try and pull us out of the worst recession in 70 year's or so, sooooooo, some time's you just have to reach down and grab ahold of them, and go for it, this look's like as good a time as any.

Double your Pleasure

6:00pm: The XLF has a fairly rare pattern on it, a double inside day, IE, an inside day, followed by an udder inside day. In the two prior one's on the above chart, it led to more downward action, I would point out that both of those were lower highs than the previous high, the current one is actually a HIGHER HIGH than the previous high.
I used to have a study on my computer about these little thing's, but since I no longer have any VAIOable computers, I have no reliable data to determine an action, but I can tell you, it USUALLY makes a significant move out of this situation.
It turn's out that my former rocket ship Puter blew it's Mutha Board, and I won't have the revised model back until the end of the coming week, with probably a week's worth of work, trying to get it the way I had it, which include's the MSW. Just a note to myself, my local one horse town Puter Guru told me the former Mutha Board was used, so, I probably won't be buying any more "NEW" computers online, hahahahahahahaha, siiiiiiiiigh!!!!

WEEKLY UPDATE 7/12/09

There will be no Weekly MSW update this week, my main frame must have been jealous of the Blog being on vacation, so it decided to take a rest on friday (AGAIN!), and decided it wanted to spend some time with our only local computer "GURU" in this one horse town. I will say, it gave me fair warning, as it suddenly froze up in the morning, and being the dumb ass I yam, I restarted it, and it actually came back on, and I was a little busy, so I went right back into my TS platform, without trying to restore it to a prior date, or see if I could spot some thing wrong. BAD IDEA, as it dumped for good, maybe it caught that virus going around, I don't know.

ANYWAY, I'm on the old reliable back up Vaio, which does not have enough room on the HD for the huge Telechart Platform, much less the MSW platform, besides, I had to upgrade to the current TS 8.5 platform from my existing 8.0 on this machine, and one thing I found out about TS, is that you LOSE all your stinking indicator's and stuff that you had on the current machine, the roach's, so I had to start completely over on all the chart's and stuff. My Vaio has a 16GB "C" drive, but a 50GB "D" drive, if I could figure out how to make the "D" drive the "C" drive, I could get my Telechart and MSW back on this one.

The following is just for my own personal information, for future referrence, so my one reader can stop reading at this point.

The thick purple line, which come's into play on the chart's below, is just a HUGE line in the sand, and is providing important support right now. That of course, is the "AREA" of the neck line, as talked about in last week's post. This whole week was pretty much a battle for dominance between the BULL shiter's and the BEAR ass's, with no clear winner (or, whiner's), YET! By the way, this is the SPX, the SPY is exactly the same, the number's have just been changed to confuse the innocent. I put a FIBO (Fibonacci's) on this chart, just to check it out, and add confusion, the main number's, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%, all line up very well with support area's below, should Mr. Phelp's decide to accept his assignment of taking us lower. One surprise was the 23.6% level, it stopped the rally on thursday dead in it's tracks, and also is the high from late April, and the low's from late May and June low's, at least I find it interesting.

This is kind of a follow up on the H&S chart from last week. First off, the market's, IMHO, are an absolutely unreal peice of junk right now, for the most part the whole week was spent grinding around inside the square box, testing that magic purple line, and the 880 neck line "area". After all that, we closed almost midway between the purple line and the 880 neck line, I know stuff like that is hard to believe, but it can't possibly be manipulation by the four broker's and banks that Zero Hedge has been talking about, using our tax money to act as the conduit for the PPT, can it???? (OK, that's my consiracy nut stuff).

ANYWAY, my senario from last week is still in play. If you go by the Elliott Waver's I talked about last week, my point "A" could be the wave 3 they thought was coming, which means we get a wave 4 UP, then a wave 5 DOWN, to complete the series, my point "B" would be their point "4", with the wave "5" down looking some thing like my "C". In my yellow line projections, I could "possibly" see a 1-2-3-4-5 going up into the point "B", I'm not an Elliotter, so it's just a "guess" (hahahahahahaha, like every thing I do). The circle at the intersection of the blue down trend line is my main shorting idea, should Mr. Phelp's let us get their.

Personaly, I just throw all the Ellott bull shit out the window, although it is a nice road map of sort's, the price action is the most important thing. Nothing's going to happen, in a decent move type way, until we get out of that boxy area. When I look at the top chart, there is practically nothing above us to keep us from going higher, while there's just all kind's of support area's and slop and shit, under us. Should we get above 890, there's nothing to keep us from going to 900 right away, AND THEN, we have virtual CLEAR AIR, or a VOID, above 900 to that 930+ high, so right now, I'd have to say that HIGHER has very little resistance once we get above 900, which would mean we would go, aaaaaaahhhhhhhh, HIGHER! I would be pretty surprised if we actually stopped at that point "B", and started back down, even thought that's my main short idea "area".

When I put some indicator's on the 60min, I SPY some pretty obvious divergence's, which, IMHO, mean's we "probably" go up. The only one NOT diverging, is the MACD, but who care's about that (or any indicator for that matter, they are all just some thing to confuse me a little more).

The daily chart is showing buy's on the STOCH, RSI and CCI, while the MACD is on a clear sell. I have a ROC (Rate of Change) on there, to show the huge divergence that's been going on the last few month's, this had led to decline's in the past, some times (that's a disclaimer).

The weekly, like most of the market, is kind of in no man's land, with the indicator's on sell's, the STOCH is the absolute worst, as that is indicating we have a looooooooong way to drop, should Mr. Phelp's decide to take us there. That damn MACD is the only one not on a sell.

This week is going to be huge, we get a bunch of lie's out of the government on the economic front, which will only be topped off by the over whelming lie's that will be coming out of a bunch of the big bank's (ain't it nice when the government litterally legislate's all the bad shit out of your earnings, hahahahahahahahaha), not to mention some big Trekkii's, eeeeerrrrrr, Techie's, like INTC and GOOG.

Personally, I have about a dozen position's, all of them option spread's accept for a junky little position, in, waaaaaa laaaaaaa, JNK, hahahahaha!! The heaviest positions are in INTC and CSCO, which, I THINK, I'm kind of net SHORT in them, I'll have to look. Regardless, my TOTAL position's add up to about what a stop would be, if I were to ever go ALL IN on my account's again, which I don't see happening, until at least around the end of October, or in November some time, so, I really don't give a damn what happen's here, although it would be nice to make a little change.