Weekly MSW

I ran the MSW through the "7 Day Moves" strategy, which on the daily scan above is basically a seven day swing trade. It came up with 8 new buys and 11 new shorts, when you include the confirmed signals, which are new signals generated off of an existing signal, there are 50 buys and 19 shorts. This scan is on the Russell 1000, plus about 250 selected ETF's, which is not very many signal's for 1250 stocks, NO ETF's showed up on the signals, meaning the software doesn't care for them one way or the other.
None of the short's looked very interesting to me, although it does seem to hate GS (WHO DOESN'T!!!!), although PRE had an interesting "break out failure bar" on friday, where it tried to break out over a down trending upper trend line, and failed to hold the break out. I should also mention that GS had a gap down inside day, doji type bar, possibly the first chink in the armour.
I do like the PH chart, although for the life of me I can't figure out why, maybe because it's a weird one. It's obviously sitting right on a triple top (we all know there's no such thing as a triple top, right?), but the weird part is what led into it, as it made four lower low's from the high in May, before leading into the latest run up into the triple top. This is completely opposite of what you would want to see, which would have been much better with four HIGHER low's leading into this current top, or, an ascending triangle.

HOWEVER, I think the weekly chart really show's possiblities, as it has a huge pocket, or VOID, above it, back up to the prior highs from about a year ago, PLUS, it has an inverted head and shoulder's on it, or even a cup and handle, with the latest run up coming off a nice handle. The only resistance is that little congestion area in the yellow circle.

This chart is VERY typical of a whole bunch of charts.

The weekly scan came up with 23 new buys, and only 2 new short's, when you include the confirmed signal's it has 155 additional buys, and only 17 additional short's, so the software is very bullish (obviously, it doesn't have the foggiest idea of what it's doing, hahahaha!!!).

I have the chart of ANR up there, as it's kind of broken out over this base, and once it can get through the little congestion area in the yellow circle, it has a HUGE void back up to the former highs. The white rectangle high lights (eeeeeerrrr, LOW lights) the 75% drop it made last year in a seven week span. It wouldn't surprise me to see it take seven YEAR'S, to get back to that area.

Naturally, double click the chart's for the original size (I don't have to tell you that).

Some Stuff I've been screwing around with

Sysin left a note, this afternoon I guess, about the short interest plunging, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!! I'm not laughing about whether or not short interest has taken a huge hit, I have no idea, and I could care less, it's the idea that the yakking screaming talking fricking head's on the idiotic box's say every day, "The market's are going higher as short's continue to be FORCED to cover", HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! THAT'S THE STUPIDEST THING I'VE EVER HEARD!!!!!!!!!!!! If you were a shorter worth half a fricking ass, you were COVERING all the way down into the March low's, and probably up for a while off those low's, but after making a fricking fortune being short for a couple of year's, why in the hell does anyone think they would all be piling in, trying to short this dumb ass rally??????? They are sitting back on the beach in the Bahama's sipping their what ever drink of choice, waiting for the stupid shit to get done, before moving back in for the REALLY HUGE drop that will be coming, probably next year, when people get hit by the realization that the Obama Banana policies are going to be nothing more than a fricking Banana up the ass for the country!!
Regardless, I find it hilarious that the market keep's going up because of the greaaaaaaat earning's coming out, because these outfit's keep laying off million's of people, to cut their expense's so they can BEAT by the proverbial one stinking CENT, while all the while missing on the top line revenue number's, because of course, the more people they lay off, the fewer there are to buy their peice of shit worthless toy's, so fewer people buy them, so they lay off more people, and on, and on, and on, and, oh, forget it.
Anyway, enough of that bull shit, HEY, I got my puter back last night, and actually got it running for today, hahahahahaha, my roach Guru put it back together with out my multiple video card's, so I'm working off one screen, and of course, my Desk top is completely empty, so I have no file's to go back to, geeze, I feel naked. Anyway, I did get the MSW working again, much to my happiness, so I'll post a new update on Sunday showing what the dumb ass mindless hardware think's is going on. My extended family is leaving on Sunday morning, so that will be out of my hair, just in time for me to take off and spend some time with my kid's in PruneyVille until after Labor day. Wad ever. I need to see my new house I brought for the youngest one any way.

I've been basically screwing around with these thing's for quite a while, I have NO stock position's in any of these, every thing I have been doing is with option's, usually buying leap's, and selling the shit out of short term expiration option's against the position's on a day trading basis, mostly to limit my risk.


AA is typical of what I see in the market, you can basically throw out the bull shit March down draft (for now at least), it's been stuck in a congestion area since last fall, between 9-12.50, this actually make's for great trading as the thing is pretty consistant, going up and down, up and down, up and down. HOWEVER, if the roach can get over 12.50-13, it has basically CLEAR AIR, or a VOID, back up to the 30 dollar "area". One thing I find REALLY interesting, is that it took this thing SIX WEEK's to go from 30, down to 10, and I would be REALLY SURPRISED, if it goes back to 30 in SIX MONTH's, hahahahahahaha, in case you DIDN'T know, stock's drop a HELL of a lot faster, than they go up. Especially now, after a double or a triple in a lot of these things.

BAC is my biggest position, but that's just the "POSITION", I actually have five different position's that I trade against, and around this thing, like short call's and short put's, etc etc etc, I "think" I have a Condor on it as well, wad ever, it goes up or down, I cover the short call's or short put's and feel happy about myself, and get drunk, even though I don't make a hell of a lot of money on them, hahahahaha, BUT, it's some change keeping me in the "NEEDFUL" things in life. As you can see, this thing has all kinds of congestion above it, BUT, I know the line's look close together, but there's about three to five points between them, WOOOOO HOOOOO, trade and scalp CITY!!!!! Once it get's above about 24-25, it's got CLEAR AIR up to 35, if it can ever get through this shit. One thing, under 10 bucks, and this thing will be back in some serious shit.

Inkey, or INTC, picked up a serious trading range between 12 and 15, REALLY cool stuff, then it kept bouncing off the 15 level, that's called an R/R trade, hahahahahaha, under 15 and it was obvious you were in trouble if you were long. I was doing the same thing with it, that I'm doing with BAC, position city day trading the shit out of it, and I got out of town when it got above 18 on the pump, way to early of course, but, sigh, such is life. I did the same thing with CSCO, I left town to early, just like I'm going to do next week. Inkey may be losing a little MoJo here, BUT, if it can wallow around and pull back, and do all that stockey bull shit, and break back above the high's it's made, it could have CLEAR AIR back up to the 24 "area", I will be keeping an eye on it.

I have so much JUNK in my garage, I just couldn't help myself on this. This was one of my bigger position's, mainly because I had this dumb ass idea I was going to HOLD this thing because of the yield on it, buuuuuuuttt, sigh, I have to admit I bailed on it after it took off south, off of the little doji in the circle, off of which the roach SHOULD have gone up when it got above the high of that doji, my little line is kind of hiding the tail that thing had on it, when it DID get above the high. Anyway, I don't see much future in it, it's coming up on a serious congestion area, and it could get kind of JUNKY in that area.

Mikey, or MSFT, is one I'd rather not talk about, but, it is a RANGEY little sucker, you can see how it bounced around between 19-21 (Udder Dan Da March thing), then moved up in the CLEAR AIR area, to 25, and, aaaaaahhhhh, weeeelllll, aaaaaaahhhhhh, it's "probably" going back to 21, in which case, I may become interested in it again. The congestion zone above is pretty horrendous, but it will probably flop around between 25-27 in that area, before breaking out again, if it ever get's there again in my life time.

I don't want to talk about it, because I screwed around with it in that 19-21 range, and SOLD before the break out, and I sat there and watched the peice of shit go to 25, hahahahahaha, GOD, I hate the "market's".

The Moon May Be Rising Over UrAnus

The latest forecast from Barry Rosen, enjoy:


Hot Markets OutlookBy Barry Rosen

Due to space limitations, this article by Fortucast's Barry Rosen provides the author's outlook for only a few markets. Sign up here to get in-depth daily coverage of 13 financial markets with Fortucast's Daily Financial Report.

S&P 500(7/21) S & P futures made a new high to 956, negating the chances that the rally from 865 is an "x" wave. If the market does not fall much into a low on Wednesday and holds 931 or 926, there is a very small chance for a slight new high to 966 but that may be down to 20% very shortly. There does appear to be a secondary high from a bounce on Friday, July 24 to early Monday, July 27. We are now not seeing too much time for a rally into July 31 even though while 401k money may stream in August 3. The market should be under pressure into August 5 or even August 10. If the S & P is going to have any August rally, it would appear to be from August 10-14 and possibly with a secondary high into August 21. We sense this market is strongly lower into Sept. 17-21 before an October rally starts into Oct. 15. Our 120-year model is suggesting that mid-July was the secondary high for the year and that lower prices are due probably into Sept. 17-21 then a rally into Oct. 16 and then another lower into Nov. 1. We are estimating a fall into Sept. 17 toward the 770 region. New lows on crude into late July should correlate with the stock market taking out 860 rather quickly. That low, however, which is also due on the CRB, is very important and would be followed by a retracement high into late August or early September before a final push down into Sept. 17-21 would develop on the CRB. The good news is that we should get a retracement of the 2007-2008 low into June 2010 toward at least 1030 and possibly 1150 in the more bullish case. The bad news is that we are estimating that by Dec. 2010 the market will make new lows, possibly towards 600. From there we should do a 3-wave sequence up into Feb. 2012 that will probably fail in the 920 region and then the larger collapse will begin. At most the market would retest the 2010 high at 1150. We do see a minor inflationary period from March 2010-June 2010 that may spook the FED to start raising rates and by that time it will have to happen. Great Britain had declared to the public that they would not raise rates until June 2010. This may then lead to more loosening and the double dip crisis into Dec. 2010. How the economy will come out of that crisis is unclear. Past cycle analogues suggest that the stock market could recover and retest the May 2010 highs into Feb. 2012 before a massive meltdown happens in 2013 with maybe 2012 sideways to lower.
LONGER-TERM: The underlying assumption of our long-term projection is the bear market that began at the 2007 high did not end at the March 2009 low. That means it should continue into at least 2015 and even 2017. The prospects for either hyper-inflation or default loom (maybe both) and suggest that the S & P may go substantially lower into 2013, where we estimate a target around 333. We are entering uncharted territory and the cycle analogue that we are looking at involves the Panic of 1903, when 600 railroad stocks went bankrupt and the market crashed big time. That year's crash was worse than the Great Depression's collapse in 1929.
CRUDE OIL
MONTHLY CHART TREND: Lower to 25.00 into Dec. 2010.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to 8800 into June 2010.
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower to 60-61 into August 5.
LONGER-TERM PATTERNS: We think that the inflation high that ended on June 15, 2008 will stick for a while and that a deflation low will eventually take crude to about $25.00 into Dec. 2010. The more intermediate picture is more complicated but it looks like the June 2010 high may only realistically be $88.00 rather than the $120.00 level that we have discussed. There are also a number of wild card factors operating. Firstly, war cycles will increase dramatically from Oct. 2009-May 2010. If the H1N1 flu pandemic hits really hard, it will start earlier deflation in which case the March 2010 secondary low may be much lower. Thirdly, we have to wonder if there will be enough of a recovery to price crude much beyond $80.00 a barrel and whether signs of a recovery can create a massive move up in the first half of 2010. There appear to be more chances for this market to go up than to go down but a fall from Oct. 15, 2009 until late November could be nasty and it may not be done until Jan. 15, 2010. Still, it does appear a strong rally from Sept. 17-Oct. 15 could be $20-24. It could come from $54-55 into the Sept. 17 low first.
SHORT-TERM PATTERNS: Crude topped out on June 29 and then has done a larger correction than we have expected of about $15.00. I think that June 29 low will not hold. We are seeing a pullback to 60-61 into August 5 and then a rally to 70.00 into the week of August 17. The August 5 buy will be important and then a major sale will come Aug. 26-Sept. 17--and that could go down to 54.50-55.00 and set up another buy for a move to 75.00 into October 15.

GOLD
DAILY CHART TREND: Topping toward 967-975 and then retracing into August 5 and then higher into August 17 and maybe August 26.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to 1120 into June 2010.
MONTHLY CHART TREND: Lower into Dec. 2010 and then higher to 2400-3000 into 2012-13.
SHORT-TERM: We think that gold will stall around 967-975 max. and then head lower into August 5. There may be a secondary high into July 27-28 or a new high if the market cannot rally much July 22-23. That may be the best set-up buy for the seasonal upward thrust into August 26 but cycle lows really dominate into Sept 17 so we really may not have a major buy until then. This fall, the cycle that led to gold spurting up with crude from the middle of June to the middle of July is repeating and should be felt for a set up buy into Sept. 17. Last time gold rallied about $100 during that time frame but we are not sure how low this market will go into Sept. 17 to set up that rally. We are still open to seeing new highs on crude to 7550-8000 in August and that might push gold up to 1030 into the August time window. We do see the market mostly lower from the week of August 17 into Sept. 17 before we get another sharp rally from Sept. 17 into Oct. 15. Still, a larger collapse is likely between Oct. 14 into January 15 in three waves.
BIG PICTURE: Gold has been a tough market to play and everyone is expecting record numbers but they may have to wait a while. The best upward play for gold will be from Jan. 2010-June 2010 shorter-term and then a position trade should be done around Dec. 2010 with a hold into 2013. We might get 1120 or higher but we need to see a lot more data to measure that target. Moreover, a major deflation thrust hits June-Dec. 2010 and gold could even go down to 750 then if crude collapses to new lows. Gold bugs really have to wait until 2011 for a major buy and may not find instant gratification until 2012-13 when we should hit 2400 to 3000. Our biggest concern is a potential H1N1 Flu pandemic. We are not clear whether it will lead to major buying out of fear or major selling on earlier than expected deflation. Those waiting for the hyper gold cycles will have to wait probably into Feb. 2011-Dec. 2013. We think the dollar will become worthless or near worthless into 2012-3 and that gold will become king again. Prices project 2400-3000. MAJOR DATES: July 27; August 5 (low), August 26 (high), Sept. 17 (low), Oct. 9-15 (surge high), Nov. 24 (low) and Dec. 21 (high), and Jan. 15 (major low).