Put me on Ice

I hate these fricking peices of shit, SOLAR STOCKS, I think they are the single greatest scam since they beat out Aluminum siding sales men back in the 70's, BUT, I like this pattern on this peice of junk, LDK. Your R/R is very clear, under about 10.60 and you DON'T WANT IT, BUT, if it can get it's ass in gear, and go up, it could probably see 14 again pretty easily.

This is kind of a timely column about the $TICK, http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/08/identifying-nyse-tick-environment-and.html , personally, I'VE STOPPED USING THE FRICKING THING!!!!!! That, and the $TRIN, as I think their usefullness is being warped by the large trading being done in the inverse funds. I've sat watching them, and wondering why in the hell they were giving me reading's that did not seem to fit with the current market conditions, like a low reading way under 1.0 in the $TRIN when the market was down over 1%, SO I STOPPED WATCHING THEM!!! Actually, I still have them on a little line on my minder, but my old $TICK chart no longer has the NYSE $TICK on it, I use the TradeStation data on the S&P 500, as it doesn't have any of those dumb ass inverse funds in it. All I did was lower the extreme lines, to like 300 on the plus and minus side, VS 600 on the old NYSE $TICK, and using a volume differential rather than the $TRIN. I may put a chart of it up, if I ever get time.

One of my favorite people, Dough Kass, left a note on Twitter that the total number of stocks two standard deviations above their 40 DMA set a new record, the last record set was in May, just before the correction back then.

ICE me baby!!! I love this pattern, this is not one of the new buy's or short's on the MSW, but what a terriffic pattern (which means it will fail of course, hahahahahaha!!!!). That's called a "Bear Flag" (it's not a stinking bull flag), it flagged back up to a gap fill of that first big down bar, but the really cool thing is the BOF (break out failure) bar it put on today, as it sucked in the bull's today with a new high, and then just crushed'em I tell ya, CRUSHED"EM!!!!! I'm telling ya, There's no doubt in my mind that if this thing get's under 90, it will probably see 89.99 pretty fricking fast, wooooo hoooooo!!!!! Well, a logical target "could" be that prior low around 84, wad ever.

8/3/09

I really debated whether to post this thing or not, I did this before the open this morning, and got involved with udder things, and didn't post it, so it dosen't have today's candle's on it, which doesn't really change any thing, the Q's failed to get above thursday's high, and closed at 40.04.

I bring this up, only because it sure look's like the Q's are finally approaching their first REAL resistance line. That upper trend line goes back to the high from 07', and if we went straight up we would hit it some where in the $41 "area". Also, the 40.04 close today, is interesting, as the 50% fibonacci retracement from that 07' high to the November 08' low is $40.06, probably just a coincidence.

I'm not EVEN going to get into whether we are over bought or not, IT DON'T STINKING MATTER, the stupid thing can keep going and stay over bought, although the RSI divergence is looking interesting. My main thought, is in comparing the SPY and Q's, the SPY is just now hitting the 38.2% retracement of the same time period, almost exactly in fact, BUT, they are now where near that over head trend line that the Q's may be coming up against. My first thought of course is about how much the stupid Dog's have out performed the SPY, which is typical, they also out perform on the down side (like that's ever going to happen again!!!).

The thing I'm thinking about, is, is the SPY going to play catch up to the Q's?? If they are, then the Q's are easily going back to like 48-50, as they really have no resistance, other than the line we are getting close to, back up to that area. Now, beside's hitting the 38.2% retracement line, the SPY also has a little resistance from the November high, way over to the left, so it may have a couple of resistance points right here. But, once it get's through this, there's not a hell of a lot left to keep it from going to the 50% retracement at $111, and then on up toward that upper trend line in the $120 "area".

I love to dream of course, and I'd sure like to see a pull back here to work off the over bought situation, that would really be nice. I'd like to see it pull back to that lower trend line, like maybe fill the gap from the GS earning's lies, or maybe the 50 dma around 92.50, hopefully a pull back like that would bring the Q's back down to their break out area, like around the 37 "area".

It's just some thought's of mine, I'm really not interested, nor involved with either one of them right now, I have udder thing's I'm working on. A pull back though, would get me REALLY interested, naturally I would want to see a higher low than the early July low, a breach of that low, and, well, it would completely change the thinking.

BAC (to the future?)

As I've mentioned, I've been screwing around in BAC since last fall, some swing trading but mostly day trading, one reason is because of how well it trade's around the TradeStation "Floor Trader Pivots", which is part of the generic TS platform. If you don't know what "pivot's" are, you can get that information on about a million site's, I'm not going into it here.
I know that BZ (http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/ ) and Sysin "used" to love these thing's (I say "used" to, because I don't know if they still do or not). The VERY basic idea, is that you basically look long above the pivot, and short below the pivot, the pivot point being the gold or yellow looking dots. You look for a move from the pivot to the R1 or S1 area, or R1 to R2, etc etc. You can also "fade" extreme opens or moves, such as a break out failure bar that happens at the end of a move, say a move from the pivot up to the R2 line, where it struggle's to get over R2, you can then "possibly" expect a move back down to R1, etc etc etc, there's a number of way's to play them, test your own strategies out on it.
One reason I use this, is because like a lot of stocks, indicator's like MACD, RSI and STOCH, can be totally useless when these thing's get moving in one direction, as they can stay over bought or over sold a lot longer than I can keep from filing BK.
The top chart is the last 9 days, I also included the next chart down, which was the market bottom in March, the pivots were working well at that time, as it was last fall.

The daily chart, IMHO, is getting REALLY interesting. This thing is usually one of the most heavily traded stocks every day, and if I'm not mistaken, is getting a lot of love from the sell side analyst community, IE, the crook's, trying to suck in as many retail's (like ME) as they can.

It is back up at that white horizontal resistance line, at 14.81, that goes BAC to the 1/6 high of this year, it then had a BOF (break out failure bar) on 5/7, when it took that Janurary high out, and failed to hold it, selling off hard. That sell off created what may be a handle, in the circle, of a possible cup and handle formation. We've now gone side way's for three month's, frustrating the shit out of a lot of people, making a series of minor higher low's in the process, with a very slight ascending triangle.

I love where this thing is right now, as there's only a couple of thing's that are going to happen. Da Boyz are really setting it up, as they ran it hard into the close on friday, most likely, IMHO, in anticipation of the 401Ker's piling into this thing on monday, they just love to run these things into 401K day, and make the Ker's pay up for it, before crushing their hope's and dream's.

A possible senario is they gap it up, fill as many of the Ker's as they can, before turning it around, and putting on another crushing BOF like they did in May, OR, they use the K'er volume to chase as many short's as they can, that may be left, and drive it higher. If they can drive it higher, the thing has virtually no resistance back up to that high it made on 12/8/08, right at $18.
Either way, my personal opinion is I can wait until toward the close of the day before making a decision, as I fully expect it to trend for a few more day's in which ever direction "they" decide to take it. I will be keeping in mind, that we could get a turn around tuesday move, depending on what is going on in the general market's, but I would expect to be able to buy or short any future move's that come back to test this break out area, IE, if it goes higher, then start's coming back down for a couple of day's, I would "expect" it to find support at the 14.81-15 dollar area, for a possible add to, or new position.
As this thing is subject to all kind's of bad new's, usually from the idiot's in Washington, as Blarney Frank's, Shummer and Dodd have been firing the current Board of Director's, which refused to give them the kick back's they were screaming for, after they gave them that sweet heart deal where they can legally keep all that shit stuff off their balance sheet, I only trade option spread's on this thing, when I hold it over night, to limit my risk, in case it should open up about 90% lower than the previous close, when we find out they fired Ken Lewis, and replaced him with Thain, hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

Sigh, wad ever, be verwy verwy careful with this thingey.

MSW Weekly Update 8/1/09

The brainless software continues to be extremely bullish, as it is calling for 15 new buys and only two new shorts, on the weekly time frame. Over all, it has about 150 long signals, and only 46 short signals, out of over 700 ETF's, and a lot of the short signals are on the SHORT index's, how come that doesn't surprise me. I only have the weekly signals up here, and on the Russell 1000 below, as it only has about 4 or 5 new long's and short's on the daily signal's, which tell's me it's pretty bullish in the longer term, but very split and indecisive in the short term (sounds like some one else I know).
The 4 charts are UGA, SEA, 100 and MOO. I show the new buy on UGA because it came up with a new buy on VLO, below, which also means TSO as they both move about the same, and I've been watching them for quite awhile, maybe the software feel's there's a storm a brewing out in the gulf or some thing. It like's the global shipper's, SEA, in looking at the Baltic Dry index in StockCharts.com, which you can get under the sticker symbol $BDI, it has actually come down for a number of week's, but may be basing, I know the shipper guru's were all excited about the earnings report from DRYS the other day.
One thing that SEA, 100 and MOO have in common is the high over to the left of where we are now, from eight week's ago, an awful lot of the ETF's have this same configuration, with a break over that high probably leading to more gains (YUCKO!!!).

The software came up pretty split on the Russell 1000, with 15 new buy's and 11 new short's, on the weekly chart's, over all it has about 165 long signals and 33 short signals, so it's pretty bullish, just like on the ETF's.

Since it's split, I put up two buys and two shorts, the buy's are AKS and VLO, AKS is typical of the steel stocks, a break over 20 and it may go to 20.01 pretty quick (IE, I'm not to wild about it). VLO is sitting RIGHT ON a long term down trend line, which if it can break over it, it has pretty much clear air back up to the 23-24 "area", BUT, it's sitting UNDER a decent horizontal support line, AND, it has a pretty crappy looking weekly candle, which looks to me like it may want to go back down and test that low just under the 16 "area" again, which would probably be more interesting, to see how it reacts at the old low's. That is also the March low's, the low's for the whole period were in the 14 "area", so, well, pick your poison.

It hate's SLB and DELL (who in the hell doesn't hate DELL, hahahahaha), meaning SLB may have to shut down when the storm's come rolling in, while VLO's gas prices go to da moon for the Labor day weekend, wad ever.

I have some weird individual putting weird symbols in the comment's section, so I may shut the comment's off, nobody ever comment's anyway, so it don't matter, you can send me an email anyway, if you want to tell me what an idiot I yam.