??????????????

I mean, I'm tellin ya, I looked at this thing until I was seeing butterfly's, rubbing my eye brow's, rolling the little steel ball's around and around in my hand, scratching my head, and my ass, trying to figure out what in the HELL I was looking at!!!!????? I couldn't for the life of me, figure out what strange looking pattern I was seeing. And then it suddenly dawned on me, it's some old antiquated pattern called a trend change, when a stock transitions from going in an UP direction, to DOWN!!!!!!! MY GOD, WHAT A NOVEL IDEA I HAVE FOUND!!!! STOCK'S ACTUALLY GO DOWN, AS WELL AS UP!!!!!!!

This totally blow's every trading system I have, right out of the water, as I have been following the Larry Crudlow trading system, that he talk's about every night, and that is to buy the worst bank you can think of, and watch it go UP!! Shit, I'm fricking DONE!!

This peice of new's may have had some thing to do with it, although no one pay's any attention to funnymental's any more, so I don't have the foggiest idea why it would matter:

Bank of America lost money in U.S. in second quarter Reuters

Hhhhhmmmmmm, I had an email in my GMAIL (I forgot I even have that thing) account, that asked why I said this was a trend change. WELL, OK, that's fair, even though I have talked about this adnaseum for the last three years or so, it made a LOWER HIGH on friday, than the high on thursday (hmmm, ok, check that box), and then, unfortunately, it made a LOWER LOW, than thursday's low (hmmmm, ok, check out box number two), which, results, IMH fricking O, as in OPINION, in a trend change. Which means, TO ME, I'm ADIOS MF'er, IE, I'm outta there, Endso, Caput, Fin'e, OversVille, End of the Line, wad ever, it was a maaaaaaaaaavelous run while it lasted, I now have no interest in it, ALTHOUGH, I will be keeping my one good eye on it for the future.
This bring's up my primary trading rule, the infamous 80/20 rule, IE, you make 80% of your gains for the year, on 20% of your trade's, A PROVEN FRICKING FACT!!!!!! I DON'T MIND THAT, IE, THE 20%, IT'S THOSE SHITTY FRICKING 80% OF DA UDDER THING'S THAT DRIVES ME ABSOLUTELY BATTEY!!!!!!! SIGH, that's why they made this maaaaaaaavelous little thing called, A STOP, whereby, you cut your shitty fricking trade's loose as fast as you fricking can, and get the hell out of DODGE!!!!!

Put me on Ice

I hate these fricking peices of shit, SOLAR STOCKS, I think they are the single greatest scam since they beat out Aluminum siding sales men back in the 70's, BUT, I like this pattern on this peice of junk, LDK. Your R/R is very clear, under about 10.60 and you DON'T WANT IT, BUT, if it can get it's ass in gear, and go up, it could probably see 14 again pretty easily.

This is kind of a timely column about the $TICK, http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/08/identifying-nyse-tick-environment-and.html , personally, I'VE STOPPED USING THE FRICKING THING!!!!!! That, and the $TRIN, as I think their usefullness is being warped by the large trading being done in the inverse funds. I've sat watching them, and wondering why in the hell they were giving me reading's that did not seem to fit with the current market conditions, like a low reading way under 1.0 in the $TRIN when the market was down over 1%, SO I STOPPED WATCHING THEM!!! Actually, I still have them on a little line on my minder, but my old $TICK chart no longer has the NYSE $TICK on it, I use the TradeStation data on the S&P 500, as it doesn't have any of those dumb ass inverse funds in it. All I did was lower the extreme lines, to like 300 on the plus and minus side, VS 600 on the old NYSE $TICK, and using a volume differential rather than the $TRIN. I may put a chart of it up, if I ever get time.

One of my favorite people, Dough Kass, left a note on Twitter that the total number of stocks two standard deviations above their 40 DMA set a new record, the last record set was in May, just before the correction back then.

ICE me baby!!! I love this pattern, this is not one of the new buy's or short's on the MSW, but what a terriffic pattern (which means it will fail of course, hahahahahaha!!!!). That's called a "Bear Flag" (it's not a stinking bull flag), it flagged back up to a gap fill of that first big down bar, but the really cool thing is the BOF (break out failure) bar it put on today, as it sucked in the bull's today with a new high, and then just crushed'em I tell ya, CRUSHED"EM!!!!! I'm telling ya, There's no doubt in my mind that if this thing get's under 90, it will probably see 89.99 pretty fricking fast, wooooo hoooooo!!!!! Well, a logical target "could" be that prior low around 84, wad ever.

8/3/09

I really debated whether to post this thing or not, I did this before the open this morning, and got involved with udder things, and didn't post it, so it dosen't have today's candle's on it, which doesn't really change any thing, the Q's failed to get above thursday's high, and closed at 40.04.

I bring this up, only because it sure look's like the Q's are finally approaching their first REAL resistance line. That upper trend line goes back to the high from 07', and if we went straight up we would hit it some where in the $41 "area". Also, the 40.04 close today, is interesting, as the 50% fibonacci retracement from that 07' high to the November 08' low is $40.06, probably just a coincidence.

I'm not EVEN going to get into whether we are over bought or not, IT DON'T STINKING MATTER, the stupid thing can keep going and stay over bought, although the RSI divergence is looking interesting. My main thought, is in comparing the SPY and Q's, the SPY is just now hitting the 38.2% retracement of the same time period, almost exactly in fact, BUT, they are now where near that over head trend line that the Q's may be coming up against. My first thought of course is about how much the stupid Dog's have out performed the SPY, which is typical, they also out perform on the down side (like that's ever going to happen again!!!).

The thing I'm thinking about, is, is the SPY going to play catch up to the Q's?? If they are, then the Q's are easily going back to like 48-50, as they really have no resistance, other than the line we are getting close to, back up to that area. Now, beside's hitting the 38.2% retracement line, the SPY also has a little resistance from the November high, way over to the left, so it may have a couple of resistance points right here. But, once it get's through this, there's not a hell of a lot left to keep it from going to the 50% retracement at $111, and then on up toward that upper trend line in the $120 "area".

I love to dream of course, and I'd sure like to see a pull back here to work off the over bought situation, that would really be nice. I'd like to see it pull back to that lower trend line, like maybe fill the gap from the GS earning's lies, or maybe the 50 dma around 92.50, hopefully a pull back like that would bring the Q's back down to their break out area, like around the 37 "area".

It's just some thought's of mine, I'm really not interested, nor involved with either one of them right now, I have udder thing's I'm working on. A pull back though, would get me REALLY interested, naturally I would want to see a higher low than the early July low, a breach of that low, and, well, it would completely change the thinking.

BAC (to the future?)

As I've mentioned, I've been screwing around in BAC since last fall, some swing trading but mostly day trading, one reason is because of how well it trade's around the TradeStation "Floor Trader Pivots", which is part of the generic TS platform. If you don't know what "pivot's" are, you can get that information on about a million site's, I'm not going into it here.
I know that BZ (http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/ ) and Sysin "used" to love these thing's (I say "used" to, because I don't know if they still do or not). The VERY basic idea, is that you basically look long above the pivot, and short below the pivot, the pivot point being the gold or yellow looking dots. You look for a move from the pivot to the R1 or S1 area, or R1 to R2, etc etc. You can also "fade" extreme opens or moves, such as a break out failure bar that happens at the end of a move, say a move from the pivot up to the R2 line, where it struggle's to get over R2, you can then "possibly" expect a move back down to R1, etc etc etc, there's a number of way's to play them, test your own strategies out on it.
One reason I use this, is because like a lot of stocks, indicator's like MACD, RSI and STOCH, can be totally useless when these thing's get moving in one direction, as they can stay over bought or over sold a lot longer than I can keep from filing BK.
The top chart is the last 9 days, I also included the next chart down, which was the market bottom in March, the pivots were working well at that time, as it was last fall.

The daily chart, IMHO, is getting REALLY interesting. This thing is usually one of the most heavily traded stocks every day, and if I'm not mistaken, is getting a lot of love from the sell side analyst community, IE, the crook's, trying to suck in as many retail's (like ME) as they can.

It is back up at that white horizontal resistance line, at 14.81, that goes BAC to the 1/6 high of this year, it then had a BOF (break out failure bar) on 5/7, when it took that Janurary high out, and failed to hold it, selling off hard. That sell off created what may be a handle, in the circle, of a possible cup and handle formation. We've now gone side way's for three month's, frustrating the shit out of a lot of people, making a series of minor higher low's in the process, with a very slight ascending triangle.

I love where this thing is right now, as there's only a couple of thing's that are going to happen. Da Boyz are really setting it up, as they ran it hard into the close on friday, most likely, IMHO, in anticipation of the 401Ker's piling into this thing on monday, they just love to run these things into 401K day, and make the Ker's pay up for it, before crushing their hope's and dream's.

A possible senario is they gap it up, fill as many of the Ker's as they can, before turning it around, and putting on another crushing BOF like they did in May, OR, they use the K'er volume to chase as many short's as they can, that may be left, and drive it higher. If they can drive it higher, the thing has virtually no resistance back up to that high it made on 12/8/08, right at $18.
Either way, my personal opinion is I can wait until toward the close of the day before making a decision, as I fully expect it to trend for a few more day's in which ever direction "they" decide to take it. I will be keeping in mind, that we could get a turn around tuesday move, depending on what is going on in the general market's, but I would expect to be able to buy or short any future move's that come back to test this break out area, IE, if it goes higher, then start's coming back down for a couple of day's, I would "expect" it to find support at the 14.81-15 dollar area, for a possible add to, or new position.
As this thing is subject to all kind's of bad new's, usually from the idiot's in Washington, as Blarney Frank's, Shummer and Dodd have been firing the current Board of Director's, which refused to give them the kick back's they were screaming for, after they gave them that sweet heart deal where they can legally keep all that shit stuff off their balance sheet, I only trade option spread's on this thing, when I hold it over night, to limit my risk, in case it should open up about 90% lower than the previous close, when we find out they fired Ken Lewis, and replaced him with Thain, hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

Sigh, wad ever, be verwy verwy careful with this thingey.