A Sector Look, plus T2107

I've been trying to work with my TeleCharts this summer, but got interrupted with the month I lost due to the never ending puter problems. One thing I'm doing is to take the basic 10 sector's in the S&P, and keep track of which sector's are leading in price, and which are lagging. There's more than ten sector's on the list, as I use redundant sector's from different index provider's, to kind of verify they see the same thing.
One thing that surprised me was that real estate was leading financials, talk about your overly optimistic out looks, wad ever, who am I to say any thing. The other thing that kind of surprised me, is that Tech, as in the XLK, is down in the middle of the pack.

What I then do, is to screen these sector's based on a one week Money Stream surge, to see what sector's were getting some increasing money flow in the past week. This is where it get's interesting, as it kind of weed's out who the liar's are, as some of the former leader's in price are not seeing the sponsorship they were before, as IYR actually dropped into a negative money flow for the week, IE, people are quietly leaving Dodge, and some of the other's, like XLF, IYG, XLB, and IYM are barely above the zero line. Then, the really interesting thing, is to see the Money Flow going into some of the former laggard's, like, XLP, DBA and IYH, it clearly look's like some sector rotation going on. Equally interesting to me, is some of the lagging sector's for the past month, that DID NOT get a bid this week, like IYK, IYZ and IYE. The worst one over the past month, GLD, just barely caught a bid this last week.
This is a work in progress, as long as my current puter hold's up.

I checked three other site's I use, just to make sure this wasn't a miss print, but it true, the T2107, percentage of stock's above their 200 DMA, is back up above bubblelicious area's. In fact, the only higher reading I see was at the end of 2003, just before the 2004 correction. I circled some of the other time's it got this high, like, just before the 87' crash, the 98' crash, and just before some crash that started in 07'.

In and of itself, it doesn't mean it's a sell right now, it's just kind of a, aaaaahhhhh, warning. Just as it stayed under 10 for a hell of a lot longer than I thought it could, it can stay at these level's for a few month's, before we finally cough it up, usually not longer than three or four months, or up to nine month's like in 03', but eventually it lead's to pretty big decline's (If I can last that long, hahahahaha).

Weekly MSW Swing Update

On the weekly ETF scan, the MSW came up with 4 new buy's, and 17 new short's, one of the new buy's is actually a short, as it hate's emerging market's (who doesn't!) and wants to buy the EEV. The other chart's are new short's on the UVG, Russell 1000, it hate's the Global Carbon ETN, GRN, as it seem's to want to get in Gore and Waxman's face. Unfortunately, it also hate's our only salvation, Nuclear energy, as it want's to short PKN.
Over all, it's on 110 total buy signals, and only 46 total short signal's, but a few of the buy's are the infamous short funds, one of these day's when I have time I need to cull them out of the system. It hate's oil, DTO, financials, FAS and RFL, China, GXC, consumer staples, XLP, Gasoline, UGA, commodities, GCC. For some reason, it want's to buy the France fund, EWQ, my god, like I said, I don't buy emerging markets, hahahahahahaha!!

On the daily ETF scan, it came up with one, count'em, ONE buy, and that's actually a SHORT, hahahahaha, TWQ, the Russell 3000 Ultra short fund. It hate's Australia, EWA, which mean's by proxy it hate's commodities, which it does as it want's to short DYY, AGQ and PTF, semi's in XSD, dividends in LVL (it SHOULD, THERE ARE NONE!), and my favorite, it hate's the S&P earnings, EPS, hahahahaha, who does'nt, unless of course you think that the P/E should be like a basketball game, you know, some where in 100's!

Anyway, over all, it's on 29 total buy signal's, which include's 13 Short ETF's, so it's actually only on 16 total buys, and it's short 42 ETF's, some of which are probably long SHORT fund's, but I didn't count those. Regardless, not very many total signal's, for over 700 ETF's, meaning the software is just not wild one way or the udder here, pretty much my own feelings.

The daily scan of the Russell 1000 came up with a buy on GRMN, in the upper left corner. It's been trying to fill the gap left after earnings, and if it does, it may find some support around 28, although it "could" drop to 26. All the short's look about the same, and in my personal opinion, look better than any of the buy's, I have CHS, ANN and THO on the chart's, but the rest of the short's look about the same. On a total basis, the MSW only has 33 total buy signal's, which seem's very low to me, considering there are over 1000 stocks in the list. It's on 62 total short signal's, which is also low, which mean's it's now to wild one way or da udder.

The weekly scan came up with 11 new buys, and 21 new short's. I have GNW and LPX new buy's on the top chart's, GNW just broke over a long term down trend line that date's back to 2007, I personally consider the outfit a peice of shit, but hey, I can't argue with the brainless software. If you believe in the great new housing bonanza that all the yelling fricking screaming yakking talking head's are claiming we are about to undergo, then you have to love LPX.

The short's in DVN and TRI are very typical of the other short chart's. Overall, the software is on 166 total buy signal's, and only 57 total short signal's, the software has seen the future, and it think's it is UP! Stupid software.

Weekly Notes, Q's and BAC, ETC

The Q's are showing the worst divergence on the Worden TSV (Time Segmented Volume) that I could find in the last two year's, that's the middle indicator with the white line on it, on the bottom chart. In the top chart, I circled some previous time's it has done this same divergence, going back to the top in October of 07', it had a huge divergence in May of this year, that led to the June swoon. This kind of a divergence, when the equity make's a new high while TSV continue's to go down, has "ALWAY's" led to a decline, so, that mean's we are going to pull back, RIGHT!!??? Hahahaha, yea, riiiiggghhttt, there's alway's a first time, I guess. What it's basically telling me, is that thing's are not quite what they seem to be, and I'll be my typical cautious little self, even though I yam long da Q's, although I have so many hedge's on them, I may actually be short, I'll have to check that out.

I have'nt been able to check my Max Pain site out, but I have to imagine that the 40 strike is the Max Pain level, whereby if they peg it there on option's expiration on friday, it will screw the greatest number of short's and long's, IE, people who are the happy owner's of put's and call's. Option expiration week's are "typically" bullishly inclined, so I "doubt" we get the big one this coming week (note: any thing inside "quote's", are disclaimer's). The good part about this coming week, is that with it being an expiration week, we may get some decent movement, before heading into what will probably be the worst week of the year, the week before Labor day weekend, YIKE's, that is going to be one horrible, low volume, peice of shit week, and you would be well advised to head out to your summer home in the Hampton's, with the rest of Da Boyz.

Looking forward, my "HOPE", is that we get a replay of the last quarter, in which we had the June swoon in the last month of the quarter, which mean's we swoon in September, before we get another earning's blast off in October, like we had in July. The last month's of the quarter are usually like that, IE, March, June, September and December, as "Inwestor's" (god I hate that commercial) await new's about the coming earning's, September has been especially bad at time's, as that is a year end for a lot of companies, in which they also give update's for the next year, during investor conference's and the such. The problem I see right now, is that I get the feeling that every body and their brother's uncle is looking for the same senario, which mean's usually, that it ain't gonna happen, the dirty rat's! It would be just like Da Boyz, meaning, Da Government, to manufacture some more fake new's, and use their conduit's on Da Street, IE, GS, JPM, BAC, C, etc etc etc, to keep us creeping crawling up into October, GEEZE, am I going to hate it if they do THAT!!

What ever they decide to do, it dosen't change my longer term out look. I know Bob Pretcher has pulled his client's out of the market, in anticipation of the coming Wave 3 down, or the infamous bear market "C" wave, that so many of the udder Elliott Waver's are looking toward, but Bob himself admit's that he is usually early in these call's, which fit's into what I see coming. I figure that the October earning's will be simply maaaaaaaaaavelous, as they beat the crap out of all those lowered anaylst estimate's on a YOY basis, and we get the first positive GDP report in a year, when the conference board release's it toward the end of October. We then get the blast off, as the yakking yelling screaming liar's, some time's called ANAYLST, parade out on the boob tube, and convince the Mom's and Pop's to put all their stinking IRA's into the casino, as we all know that November lead's into the best six month's of the year, and HELL, with interest rate's in those money market account's at ZERO, you can't go wrong buying all these maaaaaaaaavelously under valued companies, with their 1% dividend yield's, woooooo hooooooo!!! This lead's into the Janurary earning's season, after we get the Christmas retail report, in which we may finally get the "REALIZATION" wave, in which everyone suddenly realize's it was all BULL SHIT, and we may finally get this bear market over with, god, I hope so.

BAC closed this week 4 cent's higher, than the high of last week, 17.39 vs 17.35 for the high last week. The daily chart (not shown) has a wisp of a "possible" double top, it would take a lower open on monday to confirm that. HOWEVER, this weekly chart look's higher to me, there's literally no resistance until $20, which is almost three buck's higher than where it is right now. Speaking of that $20 barrier, that is just HUGE resistance, beside's being an important whole number, it supported the stock on the first bottom almost exactly one year ago, and then it had a huge battle for five week's from October of last year, into November, trying to hold that level, before it finally coughed it up and decsended into the depth's of hell, with the rest of the market.
One good thing about that resistance, is that once it's broken there's no doubt in my mind at all, that it's going back to $35, eventually.

Obviously, this is a tough love take at this point, I'm not a Momo Mojo type player, IE, buy high and sell higher, which is what you have to be to take it here. It's violating just about all my trading rule's (hahahahahaha, yeeeaaaa, like I have RULE's!), it's obviously very over bought, and on the daily chart it's setting up some pretty severe divergence's on the RSI 5 and STOCH, which don't mean diddly squat as it can stay over bought a lot longer than it would seem possible. The only way I could take it here, would be over friday's high, with a tight stop, looking for a possible run into option's expiration next friday, not my cup of tea.

My preferred way to play it, would be on a longer term basis. I would wait for it to hit that $20 barrier, and then "HOPE", that it start's pulling BAC. The "break out point" on this thing, was $15, that was the high in May, before it went into a 2 1/2 month consolidation, before the recent blast off. A test of $20 and a pull back would set up a convuluted cup and handle type formation, and the $15 level "should" act as pretty stong support on any pull back. This would give it a rest period, and let it build up some new money momentum, to possibly take out that $20 level on the next try.

8/11/09

Thank you Mr. 360 Budget, for putting into a nice clear article, my thoughts about how the stinking Government is forcing people to spend, rather than save, by offering ZERO percent savings accounts, http://bit.ly/10VwUU .

Every thing say's DOWN on this thing, but with all the bull shit going on, who fricking know's. I guess AMAT had a decent report after the bell, so that's going to get every one excited in the morning, the futures are up as I write.
I see a little "congestion" area in the left circle, between 39 and 39.50, I could see us possibly wallow around in there for a few day's, maybe actually setting up a little dinky head and shoulder's pattern, before breaking down. The break would be under 39, now, should they take us up, I'm not interested, and I'll be standing aside and trading udder stuff, I ain'nt interested in buying into the shit!!!!!!!!
With this stupid run up (you kind of get the gist of my attitude here????) it's left a massive "clear air" zone under us, I mean, this thing could giddy up back down to 37 faster than I can tell Goldman to get screwed. I would ASSUME, we find some support "around" 37, the June high's area, if we don't, well, woooooooo weeeeeeee, Sadie bar the fricking door, there's nothing but clear air under 37 back down to 34. That's the bad part about vertical "raaaaaaallies" like this, they leave NO support under them, udder than my TAX money being used by the FED and Treasury conduit's, GS, JPM, BAC, MS, etc etc. Speaking of the FED, why in the hell are they having a meeting, other than to have a few drink's and talk over how they are going to REALLY screw retire's and tax payer's???? There ain't a chance in hell they are going to do any thing, wad ever.
These are people I actually listen to, some what, Earnings Growth Forecasts May Require a Robust Economic Recovery , they're projecting earning's for the current quarter coming in at about $40, YOY, which mean's the current P/E on the S&P is about 25, which is just about Bubblicious. The MAJOR problem, is that at the bottom in March, the TTM P/E was ESTIMATED to be between 40 and 120, depending on who you were reading, and how much they warped the stat's. Now, the yakking talking yelling screaming TV reporter's, are talking about the "estimate's" being put forth, that the S&P is going to earn $71 in the coming year (don't you dare read Dave Rosenberg, he has a slightly, aaaaaaaahhhhhhh, different take), now with most forecaster's thinking the S&P is going to get to 1200, that give's it a forward P/E of 17.61, NOT EXACTLY CHEAP!!! Most great bear market's have bottomed under a 10/10, a P/E of ten or less, and dividend close to 10%, the major problem with that, is that the roach's have been cutting dividend's faster than Carter can pump out liver pill's, I don't know, it's like some where around 2% or some thing right now. My point being, I don't like it, I'm not buying it, they can go screw themselves.
Did you see the hype about the Volt today, hahahahahahahahahahaha!!! $40,000 fricking dollars, before tax and license. The Prius, 2010 Toyota Prius , which I guess get's close to 50MPG, is like half as much. I mean, numero uno, Joe Six Pack can't afford a $4,000 peice of shit car, much less the 40K, I mean, with the difference in price between the two, it would probably take you 20 year's to make up the difference is saved gas. It just amazes me, about how fucking clueless this fricking country is. Wad Ever.

MSW Weekly Update 8/9/09

The MSW weekly scan of the ETF's came up with 17 new buys and 8 new short's, two to one on the bullish side. MOO has a new buy and OIH a new short on the two charts, in my personal opinion MOO could be a little double toppish, but who am I to say. In a major conflict with the OIH short, it hate's the ERY, the three time's bearish oil short fund, so I would have to like buy OIH and short ERY for a pair's trade, or maybe the opposite.
Over all, the MSW is on 164 combined buy signals, and 41 total short signals, out of 700+ ETF's, so it's still extremely bullish, which conflict's directly with my comment's on the Q's, down at the bottom.


On the Russell 1000 daily signal scan, which includes 100+ of the more popular ETF's, it only came up with 5 new buy signals, while it has a dozen new short's. I didn't see any new buy's I liked, but a lot of the short's look interesting, with the four chart's I have up being the most interesting, which include's NEM, ATVI, MO, and THO, with THO coming off of two, count'em, TWO, inside day's, a just slightly lack of conviction by da bull's.

The weekly Russell scan is a little more interesting, coming up with 18 new buy's and 19 new short's, nicely split between the two, the short's not shown on the focus list being DPS, D and NSR. In the spirit of the split, I'm looking at some pair's trade's on the four chart's, like going long NBL and short ATW, and since both GME and HAS have new buy signal's, if I had to choose, or GUESS, I might go long GME and short HAS, just my personal opinion.

Over all, the MSW is on 223 total buy signal's, and only 46 total short signal's, wildly bullish. Obviously, the brainless fricking software doesn't have the foggiest idea what it's talking about.

Since my last post about the Q's on monday, they closed the week out 18 whole stinking cent's lower than the monday close, IE, they didn't do diddly squat. They had some decent movement though, with dump's on wednesday and thursday, before the dumb ass gap up on friday that left a "hanging man" candle. IMHO, the R/R, Risk/Reward, is still on the short side, ALTHOUGH, with all the green shoot bullshitishness going on, it would not surprise me to see us try and make an assault on that ominious down trend line, lurking just above where we are now. One thing that might help this idea, is that the SMH is looking a little weak, especially with that failure on friday, when it had the huge gap up, and then reversed and took out thursday's low's, definitely not to hot looking. The Q's will have a hard time going higher without those maaaaaaavelous semi's, AMAT reports this coming week and may provide the big move for the SMH and Q's, which ever way "they" decide to take us.

Adding to my short bias, is that Bob Prechter of EWI issued a special note to his clients this week, that the run up is over, and to start getting short again. I'm not a member of Elliott Wave International, but I have an insider that send's me their stuff once in a while, especially when Bob come's out with a special update. As you may or may not know, Bob got his client's out of their long standing short's in February, and then hit all the talking head TV show's in March, calling a temporary bottom. He actually didn't get his client's long until April, with a target some where around 1000 to 1150 on the S&P. Bob's long standing thesis of course, is that we are in a generational, deflationary bear market, that started in 2000, and won't stop until Bruce Willis save's us from the oncoming comet that is going to destroy New York!

His reason's for saying the bull shit is over with, include the idea that we are close enough to his target's to call it good, and that his conservative client's should go to cash, while the more agressive among them can start to scale into short's. He cite's the fact that the S&P has completed a 38.2% retracement of the bear market from last year, with the NasDog's doing their typical 50% retracement, PLUS, he quote's one of his sentiment provider's, who keep's track of the COT data for the S&P, who is saying that the COT's are showing a wildly bullish 88% of the future's trader's are long, a height not reached since the top a year ago May ( A late correction right here, actually, we hit that last COT high in the October 07' final high for the markets, final meaning, I will probably never see those numbers again in MY life time).

He has a slightly different view of the Elliott count that I've seen from other waver's, as he is counting the March bottom as a primary Wave 1, with this run up being Wave 2, which lead's into the catastrophic, and very exciting, Wave 3 down, that will take out the March low's, possibly into the 300's on the S&P, wooooooo hoooooooooo!!! The Waver's I follow are calling this an A-B-C bear market, with A being the March low, B being the current rally, with the top being where ever it stop's, and then the final Wave C down, into the depths of hell.

My personal opinion is, it ain't gonna happen just yet, but HEY, who am I to say!! It would not surprise me to see a pull back here, into the fall (hopefully), but that would just be the FIRST pull back off this new high, and it's been my trading plan that the first pull back off of new high's is "ALMOST", "ALWAYS" (those are disclaimers, hahahahaha!!), buyable. My highly optomistic senario, is that we pull back into, say, October, and then da Boyz blast us off into the traditionally bullish period from late October into the new year, using a positive GDP in the third quarter as the bull shitish reason to take us higher, before the earning's in Janurary show it truly was bull shit, and THEN, Wave 3 down starts.

HEY, a person can dream, RIGHT??!!