Weekly Sector Update

The top five sectors in percentage of price change over the past month have not changed much, with IYR, XLF, IYG, XME and IYM continuing to be the top sectors (an added late note here, I have to be concerned about the XLF, as it has hardly moved this past week, and with the enormous pump going on in those zombie penny stocks, like, AIG (it's actually a $5 stock, because of the reverse split), FRE, FMN, MIA, C, BAC, etc etc, there must be some enormous selling in the other financials). Some surprise's, to me at least, are that the Q's continue to lag the senior index's, they are even lagging GLD and TLT, another is that healthcare has started to lag. Healthcare has NOT gone down, it just isn't moving higher as rapidly, in relation to the leading index's. The only negative sector over the past month is Telecommunications, IYZ, of which I am the proud owner of, in the form of "T", yeeeeeee haaawwww, I can sure pick'em! Actually, I'm doing pretty decently, I sold the stock portion of the position, and rolled into an option spread, to at least lock in a decent portion of the stock gains, I am long Jan 26 call's, and short October 26 call's, with a maximum loss of 60 cents.

It get's very interesting when I look at the Money Stream surge for the past week. I added some bond funds to the sector list this week, and Waaaaaa Laaaaaa, BND and AGG popped right up to the top of the list, with the Swiss franc, FXF, sandwiched in between them. Now, right away, this tell's me that "Inwestor's" are fleeing the scene ("The suspect is fleeing the scene", hahaha, I loved that movie, "Fargo"), but of course, with the ungodly pump going on, that could change in an instant.

More interesting, to me at least, is that IYZ is showing up in eight place (whew!), but even more interesting, is the negative flow's in SPY and Q's, with IWM barely positive, with the DIA and XLI in solidly positive territory, meaning, naturally, "they" seem to think the Industrial's have more potential. The leader, IYR, still has positive flows, but IYM, XLB and XME are showing are showing the WORST negative flow's, meaning, naturally, the former hero's are falling victim to a little profit taking, energy, XLE, is not far behind them in that respect.

The Transports, IYT, has a pretty negative flow, I bring this up because of Dow Theory, IYT has STILL not confirmed a break over the January highs, while the DIA has made a solid break over those high's, and is "attempting" to challenge the November highs, while the IYT is a loooonnng way's away from those November highs, just some thing to keep an eye on.

Last week was just horrible, has I said it probably would be, as shown in the circle on the NYA at the top, the rest of them, SPY, DIA and Q's, all look the same. The new highs/new lows, $NYHL, and the A/D's, $NYAD, are showing some pretty obnoxious divergences, the last time this happened, from August 1 through the next two week's, the index's all managed to eek out minor new highs, while the HL's and A/D's continued to dump, which led to that breath taking dump on the 17th. The only difference this time (this time is DIFFERENT, hahaha, where have I heard THAT before) is that the 10 period MA is actually moving UP, whereas prior to the previous dump, it continued to move down, meaning, that this market SUCK's! Wad ever, the possiblity for a little dump is there, be that what it may.
Surprisingly, I fully expect the coming week to be a little better than last week, as the charlatan's and shyster's will be out in full force, releasing their clever lies, some time's called Economic release's, that could give us a break, and maybe move these Dog's around, with the Chicago PMI on monday, the ISM on tuesday, the ADP and FOMC minutes on wednesday, and the all important monthly payroll lie, eeeeeeeerrrrrrr, "REPORT", on friday (I wonder how many dead people they will add to this one, hahahahaha! It didn't take the Obama team long to figure that one out). I know the payroll report really piss's Da Boyz off, as they will probably have to take time off from their Long Island iced tea, lounging in their 50 million dollar Hampton summer home, to call the lackey's that will be manning the desk friday morning, and tell them what to do after the report come's out. We will get an initial surge one way or da udder after the open, for about 15 minutes, and then we all leave for the Labor day weekend, woooooo hoooooo!!! I can't wait to get out to the ranch, and watch the moo cow's piss on the flat rocks all weekend!

PARTY DOWN DUDE!!!!

How come the Baltic Dry Index is not partying with the rest of the Index's????????

Q's (NON) H & S

Worden had a terriffic interview with Dr. Alexander Elder last night, go to http://www.worden.com/ , it's the top webinar, "Where we are, where we may be going", I don't know if you have to be a member to get it or not, I hope it's free. It's about an hour long, he show's all his chart's and setup's, how he scan's, and how he trade's, I listened to it twice today, while I was losing my "shorts", hahahaha! It's a tough down load, even with my rocket it took me probably five or six minutes.

There's some really interesting names in the "Most Over Sold" in the S&P 500 list here:
http://bit.ly/4gTu4s

2:15pm: Welp, at least they filled that gap at 39.75, hahahaha, after that, it was off to Da races! That's it, I'm done, I'll never talk about trying to short these thing's again, at least, never in my life time!

Ok, Ok, I said "I" would never talk about shorting this thing again, that doesn't mean Toddco Harrison can't talk about it: http://bit.ly/2XWq8I

In a complete change of sentiment, I have heard NO one talking about the head and shoulder's formation setting up on the Q's, I'm showing it in the 60 minute time frame here. I say a change, because I wrote about this back in early July, when every one and their brother's uncle was talking about it, and I also said the odd's would be that we would break it to the upside.
If it works this time, the first target would be the first gap fill from 8/20 at 39.75, then, IF we keep going, the next target would be the gap fill from 8/17 at 38.48. We have virtually clear air down to that last target.
A typical senario would be that we first break the neck line under the 40 "area", and then rebound back up to the down trend line, before making a second attempt at a final break.


The McClellan has been on a short for the last three days, as the A/D's have been telling a conflicting story to all the bullshitiness going on.

CANSLIM Screen

I ran a CANSLIM screen through MSN Money, that was developed by Harry Domash, http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Investing/Findhotstocks/P71529.asp , the only deviation I did was to eliminate the 25 million outstanding share's part of the screen, IE, I screened through all stocks.
It came up with the following 5 stocks, CACC, SXL, SYNT, TIS and TMB, all very, verwy interesting looking charts:

MSW Update, 8/26/09

Just a quick scan of the MSW on the Russell 1000, on a weekly time frame with the "7 day moves" profile, or, in the case of the weekly scan, the seven week move's scan. I found it interesting, because in keeping with the Money Flow surge's that have been popping up in Telecharts, in which it has been saying that money has been flowing into healthcare, the MSW came up with new buy's on, waaaaaaa laaaaaaa, health care stocks. It has new weekly buy's on the healthcare index IYH, and, PFE, BAX, BBH, and MYGN. I find it nice that it's picking up on money flowing into this area.
Naturally, it ain't gonna mean diddly squat if the market decide's to cough it up here, as, they will all go down with the market, but the GOOD thing is, they will OUTPERFORM, hahahahahahahahahaha!!! God, I love it when those idiot analyst talk about a stock "OUTPERFORMING" the market when it goes down, IE, the stock still goes down, IE, YOU LOSE MONEY, you just don't lose as much as the over all market does, hahahahaha! Wad ever, I'm not real excited about any of it right now, I'm content to sit back and see how the next month or so play's out, I may keep an eye on them, and maybe try to pick up some change on them, if I can see them kind of counter trending the market on down days (THAT IS, if we ever get another down day, hahahahahahahaha, what, seven day's up a row in the DOW now, woooooo hoooooo, IT'S NEVER GOING TO GO FRICKING DOWN AGAIN!!!!!!!).

8/25/09

The MSW has a nice example of how it freak's me out some times. When I look at the top two charts, SLB on the left, CF on the right, they look the stinking same to me, a bearish engulfing candle following a double top attempt, just about the uuuuuuuggggiliest looking things you can imagine, and yet it has a new buy on SLB and a new short on CF, go figure. Even though this is the swing trade profile, IE, it's the " 7 day moves", it still use's the 59 trading "systems" to come up with it's signals, using 60% of the signals hitting in one direction, to generate a signal. Some where in those 59 "systems", it see's some thing it like's in SLB, and hate's in CF.
The two charts at the bottom, TWC and PFG, are also two of the uuuuuuuuuugilllllliest looking charts I've seen, both of them making new highs for the rally, and then failing to hold those highs, IE, a BOF, break out failure bar. They look very similar to the over all market bar's today. Naturally, these lousy bar's don't mean a fricking thing, as I have no doubt the PPT, which is going wild in this low volume market, will use some kind of news, like the Obama Banana team coming out tomorrow and saying that they missed the budget forecast they put out today, and in reality the deficit is going to average 3 trillion a year over the next 20 fricking year's, wooooo hoooo, more than enough good new's for our tax money to take us to Da moooooon!!!

WOOOOOO HOOOOO, a break out failure bar, followed by a grave stone doji, yeeeeeeee haaaawwwww, I'm going all fricking in, LONG!!!!!!
By the by, this is the second day in a row we've had pretty big selling the last hour and half hour, which is very indicative of Insitutional distribution, just my personal observation. Check Marty Chenard to see if he give's any clue's away, as to if that is happening.

I never really cared that much for David Malpass, but I have to admit, I just picked up a little respect for him. He was being interviewed on Bloomberg about the article he did in Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0907/opinions-david-malpass-current-events.html , or, maybe he has a new book out called "Armageddon Averted--Or Was It?", anyway, he's being interviewed by that kid Matt Millian, and Dave's talking about the dollar, and how we have to have a strong dollar to keep unemployment down, and enable consumer's to be able to spend more with lower inflation, and Dave's going, Yea, the disastrous policies of Bushie and Greenspan led us to the brink of Armageddon, Greenspan did this, Greenspan did that (none of them good), on and on and on, and Matt goes "Hey, wait a minute, everyone alway's talk's about Greenspan being the greatest FED Chairman ever", and Dave say's, "Noooooooooo, GREENSPAN talk's about GREENSPAN being the greatest ever"!!!!!!!!!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA, I almost fell out of my chair, hahaha, I had no idea Dave was that smart!

8/24/09

The Q's may run into some resistance line's in this area.

INVERSE ETF's

This is just a book keeping post for me, I removed all the Inverse ETF's from the MSW, and put them in a seperate Focus List and Profile. The list above is just for future reference, as it was harder than hell to find a list of all the inverse ETF's on the web. This is by no mean's a complete list, as they are being added daily, but it is the one's that I had listed in my Profile.

Poor Unfortunates

THE WALL OF WORRY, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!


For you poor unfortunate individuals that may be looking for a top (like, aaaaahhhhh, ME!!!), we have a setup for a 2B Top, should the market god's decide to let it happen. You can get pretty much all the information you need on 2B's here, http://www.surinotes.com/Tradestation/articles/suri2B_TJDec2007.pdf .
This is the second time in the last few week's we've had the "possibility" of this setup. UNFORTUNATELY, IMPO, I think the bullish engulfing bar on most of the index's last week is probably going to lead to further gain's, and with the way this stupidly over valued market is going, we may hit the 1200 level this coming week, hahahahahahahahaha!!!!!
By stupidly over valued, I consider a 129 TTM P/E to be pretty stupidly over valued, http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090821.htm?T, http://www.mybudget360.com/. Most pundit's of course, are putting the forward looking P/E at around 14.37, based on earnings of 71 bucks in the S&P over the next year, PROJECTED! Projections are nice, aren't they, for instance, verwy verwy few "pundit's" had projected a NEGATIVE earnings yield for the S&P last year, FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, now, did they!!!
Of course, most of them are saying that this time, IS DIFFERENT, woooooo hooooooo!!!! Well, actually, they are saying it's the SAME thing, the consumer is going to be spending with their PENT UP demand, we are going to REVERSE the negative wage growth of the last decade, and every thing is going to be Honky fricking Dorey!! They liken it to the 80-82' recession blip, UNFORTUNATELY, there are still a few of us around, who remember that period, like, ME!! Housing was still doing this unreal thing, called, going UP, the biggest generation in history was just starting to reach their earning's potential, and start buying every unbeliveable peice of crap they could find, and the T Bill rate was 14% fricking percent, with MONEY MARKET FUND's yielding 8 fricking percent!!!!!!!!!!! I mean, you could throw a dart board at a monkey holding the dart, and make money out the ying yang over the next twenty years! IS THAT THE SITUATION WE HAVE NOW?????
Wad ever, in the famous word's of the last trader that went broke, YA GOTTA DO WAD YA GOTTA DO!
ME, I prefer to be long, and counter trade the shit out of those positions, during the day, some time's called, in very select circle's I might add, DAY TRADING!
It's 7:00PM MT here, and the DOW future's are up about 50+ point's, and most of the EASTERN market's are up close to, or above, 2%, meaning, I GUESS, the bear market of the last week in China, IS OVER, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! GO FOR IT, WOOOOO HOOOO!
DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOUR MONEY IS??!!!