Weekly Sector Update and a Tale of Two Time Frames

Wow, talk about a tale of two time frames, the daily and weekly charts of the index's could not be more different. The daily chart, in the middle, is showing an Island bottom, or Morning Star formation, with new buys on the STOCH and RSI, while the weekly chart at the bottom, is showing an Island Top, Abandoned Baby, or Evening Star formation, with sells on the STOCH and RSI. The one volume charateristic of the week was the huge volume day on tuesday, with declining volume the last three day's, not a particulary great setup when you get a huge distribution day, followed by a lack of buying interest, despite the pump yesterday.

The $NASI, at the top, is on a clear sell setup, as it made a MUCH lower high in August, even as the index's made new highs for the rally period, same thing with the RSI, and this past week was a pretty negative candle. When you look at the STOCH, the 5,3,3 setting is very good for spotting trends on the weekly time frame, when the fast and slow lines cross over, it is currently on an obvious SELL. To be fair, the $NYSI did NOT make a lower high, but it is on sell's on both the STOCH and RSI.

As I said I would, I exited the QQQQ trade yesterday, when we challenged the 40.22 high, MUCH TO EARLY naturally, as the pump continued into the close. It's probably to early to say we broke the "possible" head and shoulder's pattern I said could develope, as a break of 16 cents over that 40.22 high is probably not enough to confirm that it's done, but it ain't looking good. The daily definitely looks like it want's to attack the prior highs, it all depends on what happens next week when Da Boyz come back from vacation, and start manning the desk's themselves. MY personal experience, is that we don't get a true direction until the week AFTER they get back, IE, the week after next week.
IMHO (that H is for Humble), the R/R is on the short side, as your stop is above the highs, above 41. Any hint of making a lower high, or some kind of reversal day, like an outside day, or bearish engulfing bar, will confirm it. Otherwise, if they decide to take us to Da Moon, it's going to be the obnoxious buy high and sell higher, or CHASING it, trade, YUCKO!!

The Sector money flows the past week were just terrible, with the only positive money stream coming in, waaaaa laaaaaa, GLD! Last week, we only had ONE negative sector out flow, and the week before that, we had ZERO out flows, quite an amazing turn around. The worst out flows, down at the bottom, came in IYW (tech), DIA, SPY and DBA, I just don't have a handle on this GLD trade, as the DBA is saying we are in DEFLATION, not inflation, DBC is not much better.

The Q chart on there is a weekly chart, with TSV (time segmented volume), and money stream, you probably can't see it, but we just poked out head under the uptrend line on TSV, we have not done that on the MS yet. One thing that stikes me, is that we have been unable to make any higher highs in the TSV since the June highs, even as we have continued to make higher highs on price, TSV has been dead flat.

I did some thing a little different this week, and ran an MS on the Morningstar Industries, to see who's getting the flows. If you throw out the metals, the top industries are showing people are smoking and drinking more soda pop, while listening to music, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Sounds like a lot of people sitting around with nothing to do, if you ask me, no wonder the healthcare stocks start showing up at the top of the list!!! I notice waste management is doing pretty decently, and no wonder, as they are probably needing to piss more, drinking all that soda pop. TV and gambling are right in there, with CaTV, which goes right along with all of the above. The Transport's are showing surprising strength, with Air Delivery and freight, trucking, and Rails showing up with positive flows, they must be busy delivering all those TV's and soda pop.

Anyway, I'm having to much fun, I'll update the MSW later this weekend, I'm planning on doing a scan on the Russell 2000, and the mid cap's, to see if anything is popping up on them. Have a restful holiday.

ETF MSW Update

I ran the ETF screen through the MSW this morning, to see what it was thinking heading into this long weekend, while I was waiting on the payroll report.
First off, the MSW consider's itself to be an excellent picker, and hate's any thing middling, so in that vein, it hate's ANY THING with MID in it's name, as in the S&P Mid cap index, as it has a new sell on the MDY, in the upper right hand corner chart. It's consistent, as it also wants to sell UVU, JKH, IJK, and PJG. I use the weekly scan, as I think that produce's the best results, and I have to say, that MDY chart look's like a sell to me.

It's saying that we have volatility coming up, when Da Boyz get back from the Hampton's next week, as it has a new buy on the VXX, the VIX short term futures, this is the first buy since it started selling it in March. It also has a confirmed buy on VXZ, the VIX mid term futures, so it thinks volatility is going to be with us for a while.

The bottom two chart's show new sell's on FAN and OIH, which bring's up the gold mania. Now, it like's gold, as it has buys on DBP, UBG, GDX and AGQ, but I have to say, this gold situation is one of the weirdest things I've seen in some time, as the other commodities are just not supporting the inflation bug's thesis, either one or the other is wrong, either this massive gold pump is just a huge sucker bet, or the other commodities are going to play catch up in a big way.

It currently has sell's on GSG, WOOD (Wood is Good!), DBB, UHN, UGA, UCD, IXC, UCO, ERX, RYE, GCC, UYM, ADZ, CMD-A, as shown on the focus list on the bottom. I will also say, that the charts of DBC, DBA, and USO look pretty awful.

Contributing to my confusion, is that I swear the dollar chart look's like it's basing, and the MSW confirm's that, as it has a confirmed buy on the UUP on the daily charts. Some thing evil this way, is a coming!! Maybe it has some thing to do with the big international meeting that's going on, and they are going to announce they are dumping the dollar, for a new world order monetary system!!!! I have to say, the chart of GLD looks terriffic, and with the huge inverted head and shoulders formation on this, this break out project's up to about 130, as a possible target.

Speaking of gold, it's dumping in the premarket, hahaha, only down about 7 points, after the payroll report came in at -216K, better than the expected -230K, like I said, it's weird, for if the economy is improving, you would think it would be blowing up off of the report, wad ever!! SP futures were up before the report, and are basically still up, about the same, meaning it worries me, as the report was already built into the market. One reason the futures may not have moved up, is that the unemployment RATE jumped to 9.7%, two tenths higher than expected. Good luck today.

9/3/09

2:20pm: I couldn't help myself, I took a position in the Q's today. I mentioned yesterday that I liked that candle for an R/R trade, with a stop under 39, well, we actually opened up on yesterday's highs this morning, hahahahaha, what a bunch of nutso's. Anyway, I had no interest, but we started pulling back pretty quick, and then took out yesterday's close, and the low's of the last bar, and started pulling back even quicker, and then I started REALLY sitting up in my seat, when we got down close to yesterday's low, at 39.04, the think blue horizontal line. I circled the take it bar, we took out yesterday's low by a whooping two cent's, and then that bar started rebounding right away, my take was over the open of that bar, on the next bar, at 39.14, with a stop under 39.

Now, I only took a partial position, and then, when I got lucky and we went back up and challenged yesterday's highs, I took partials off of that, woooo hoooo. I still have a partial of a partial position left. I think the payroll report in the morning is going to be better than expected, whether we get a pop off of that or not, I'm not sure, as it may be built in. Regardless, I've moved my current stop up to 50% of my take it price, at 39.32, to lock in profits in case we get a pull back in the premarket after the report (unless we gap down over night under my stop, before the premarket open, ROACH's).

My "PLAN" (hahaha, yeeaaa, rriiiggghhtt), is outlined on the daily chart at the top. SHOULD I GET LUCKY, and we wallow up for next week, or so, I PLAN on taking profit's between 40 and 40.20. 40.20 is the high we made (actually it was 40.22, but I like round numbers) inside that left shoulder. My projection, is that we wallow around and set up a right shoulder on this thing, the time frame should be about equal to the left shoulder, or ten days. What this would do, is allow the long term trend line from March to keep moving up, until it reach's the $40 level almost perfectly, in ten day's.

Plan's are great, as you can imagine. I plan on taking profit's in that area I talked about, REGARDLESS, if I get lucky, and I'll keep moving my stop up as we go. If I get stopped out before we get there, IE, we turn back down, then I'll be watching to see how we react IF we attack the main trend line again, ESPECIALLY, if it is a test of the 50dma, which right now is walking up, inside that main trend line (you can't see it). The other senario, would be if we get a clean break over that 40.20 level, in that case we may be after new highs for the rally period.

Of course, I could just get blown out of the water in the morning, such is life.

Why Detriot is going Broke (eeeerrrrr, already has)

This is my ,"NEW", truck, it's a 1989 F-250 (3/4 ton), it has a 351 CI V8, the same engine the RedNecks use in NeckCar. I picked this up from a very close relative, at the RIGHT price, he used it for his freeway truck, and even though it's 20 years old, it only has 55K miles on it. "MY", truck is a 1995 F-150, extra cab with bucket seats. Now, the 95' has the small V8, the 302 CI, it get's 15MPG in the city, and about 20 on the freeway. The 89', even with the bigger engine, get's 17 MPH when I take it out to the ranch, that includes about 6 miles of dirt roads, and gets about 23 MPG on the freeway, out the loneliest highway in America, Highway 50. My plan is to use this for the ranch, so I don't continue to beat my 95' up, and then put the 351 in the 95', when it goes kablooey, as I have 165K on that one.

I bring all this up, because I was looking at the new one's, http://www.fordvehicles.com/trucks/superduty/trim/?trim=f250xl , HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, my god, no wonder the idiot's have been going broke, 20 years of all that advanced technology they've been working on, and the stinking things get worse gas mileage than my 89'! One thing that really crack's me up, is that when I look at the F-250's, I can't get the MPG on it, I have to go to the F-150, where it says the 3.4 L (I guess that's the 351, maybe not? probably the 302), gets 14 MPG in the city and 20 on the highway, the 4.2L engine, which I think is the 289CI, get's 15-21, woooooo hooooo, a whole whooping one more MPG!!!!

Why in the HELL, would I spend $25K on a bottom of the line new one, when for less than a couple of grand, I can get the local yocal wrench jockey to flop engines into my 95', and go on my merry way for another 200k miles???? No wonder they came up with that cash for clunkers program, they are trying to spare the auto maker's the embarassment of people finding out what the REAL CLUNKERS ARE!!!!!!!!

Some Senario's

6:30pm: IF, I were to consider taking my stake with the rest of the gold nut's, I "MIGHT", consider a pair's trade with DGP and UUP, although, IT'S FAR FROM PERFECT! Starting from the left, when DGP opened up, it LOST 55% from April of 08', into it's low in October of 08', while UUP gained 22%, the blue line. Since October of 08', DGP has gained 75%, while UUP has lost ONLY 14%, the yellow lines. Inside of that last period, DGP gained 27% from early April of this year, to May 29, while UUP lost 8% during that period, a little shorter term time frame, to see how they interact with each other. At the purple lines, with the question marks, I showed how THEY MOVED IN THE SAME DIRECTION (hahahahahaha, I thought they weren't SUPPOSED, to do that???).
ANYWAY, I suppose, that if you were bullish on gold, you could take an equal share amount on both, with UUP as a hedge. If gold went up, you would pick up mucho bucko, while if it went down, you wouldn't lose as much as the other NUTS!! In theory, to have a true hedge, you would have to take more than twice as many shares of UUP to hedge the gold play, more like three times as much (or more), but since your a gold nut, why hedge at all, RIGHT?!! Anyway, were I to take this play, on a personal basis, I would day trade the shit out of both of them, with options, like buying put's or selling call's on one side or da udder, at least it would keep me occuppied and entertained. It's "probably" worth a look, on my part.

2:00pm: The market's were very flat today, we had a decent little late day sell off, the last 20 minutes, that left a kind of tight little doji, that "could" be, a continuation doji, that is, we get a big sell off, like yesterday, then a pause, and then a "continuation" of the prior sell off the next day. I don't see how some thing like that can happen, with every thing being as honkey dorey as it is. What's it also doing, is setting up a nice little R/R trade, if this is a bottom instead, as your stop would be under the low's of today, depending on what happen's tomorrow.

Hmmmm, I couldn't figure out what that noise was, that I kept hearing this morning. What it was, was the yelling and screaming coming out of the gold nut pit in Chicago, as gold broke out over it's upper trend line today.
Very strange stuff, IMHO. Silver actually broke over it's upper trend line on monday, while OIL has actually broken it's LOWER TREND line. The dollar was actually UP pretty big yesterday, and dropped today, but all it did was basically get back to where it was the day before yesterday, the chart, to ME, look's like a double bottom, and a basing pattern.
I can only imagine that either the gold nut's think a dollar collaspe is coming, or it's another fake out break out. We shall see.

5:30am: I have a chart of the SPY up, but ALL the major index's look the same, as everyone in the WackoSphere (thanks for calling me a Wacko Sys, just don't call me late for cocktail hour) has pointed out, we had a "key reversal" day, where we took out the prior day's high's, and then closed under the low's, an uuuugggillly day no matter what you call it, taking out the 20MA, AND, doing it with large volume, don't help matter's much.
ANYWAY, this chart is WAAAAAAAY to CUTE! The main trend line, going back to the start of the rally in March, come's in right at the low's of August, around 975 on the SPX, which will also coincide with that rising 50MA, a very logical, and like I said, very "CUTE", support area. Should the market god's decide to let us have a little fun for a couple of day's (the futures are dead flat right now, although we just ticked down a hair after the ADP came in a little worse than expected at -298K), I could see us BREAK that main trend line, and throw everyone into a tizzy, and then maybe test the next support area, which is the June high's at "around" 950.

If we do some thing like that, it completely screw's me and my antiquated way of trading, for what would happen is that we would make a new low, IE lower than the August low, BUT, we would be doing it after coming off a NEW HIGH, therefore, there is NO trend. I would have to wait to see what the first rally does off this pull back, and what I would want to see, would be a LOWER HIGH, just like we did during the June pull back, when we dumped off that lower high on the first trading day of July, then I would have a confirmed down trend to start playing with. Until some thing like that happen's, the trend is still, obviously, UP.

NOW, there's a couple of udder interesting thing's that could happen down the road. Should my tax money not be enough for the PPT to support the market, and they get over whelmed by the tax selling by mutual fundies and corporations (which is one of the reason's that September is weak, it's a year end for a lot of them), if we lose that 950 level, we have an Air Pocket, or VOID, back down to where this dumb ass rally started in July, about 875-850, as the rally left no pull back's to act as support. That would be really cool, as you could pick up some decent change on the short side, PLUS, it would give us a 10-15% pull back, just what we need to get the bull's refreshed, and ready to blast us off into November, after a few more lies on the economic front from the Government. Like I said, this is all just TO CUTE!

The last thing, and this is a little far fetched at this point, but the god's may decide to screw everyone, and hold the August low's, YUCKO!! But, if you look at it, we MAY set up ANOTHER (hahahahaha) head and shoulder's formation, with the last week's shitty action being the head, the early to mid August time frame being the left shoulder, so we would set up a right shoulder with a wallowing late September rally that take's us back up to those highs, around 110-115, with about two week's as the time frame for a crappy move like that. The neck line would then probably be the August low's, but like I said, this is unlikely, and would be down the road aways.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

WELCOME TO FRICKING SEPTEMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vprDWPBDIxQ&feature=related

BZ must have lost his MoJo with the wind god's, as the smoke moved back in over night, but it did make for a beautiful sunrise, this is looking west.

SAY IT AIN'T SO, MSW!!!! It want's to short my favorite stock (for obvious reason's), FO! As you can imagine, it's picking up on more short's than new buy's, HOWEVER, I think that buy it want's on APOL is wrong, I think that thing has more to go on the down side. I also think it's a little early on one of my other favorite stocks, big MO, it's kind of weird, as it came up with buy's on two of my other favorite's, FLS and FST.

Most of the short's look exactly like the bottom two chart's, my personal feeling is that this will probably be another one day wonder, and my tax money will be back in use, in full force, tomorrow, as the PPT come's in to keep all those zombie bank's alive, and keep the lies going. Wad ever, I spent the day partialing out of some of my "T" hedge's, although I will be ready to add them back, at the blink of an eye (as in eye yiiiii yiiiiiii!!).

SOLAR MIO!!!!

Like I have mouthed off about for the last couple of years, AT LEAST, solar stocks are the greatest fraud perpetrated on the American Public, since, well, aaaaahhhhh, they were the greatest fraud perpetrated on us back in the 1970's, next to Aluminum siding salesmen of course! IF YOU HAVE NOTICED, natural gas is on it's way to, aaaaaahhhhhhh, ZERO, for as I have said, if the completely over priced solar system's EVER gain a foothold, natural gas will stay at ZERO until the big oil companies will break them!!!! Natural gas is an obnoxious by product of drilling for oil, and when you see those pictures of the oil rig's, with the fire burning out the end of the pipe, THAT'S NATURAL GAS, as they have just been burning the shit off for the last hundred year's, as a useless by product.

Now, it used to be, that it would take you like, a, aaaaahhhhh, LIFE TIME, to pay back the solar system, as compared to what it cost you from your electrical utility out fit, to pay for the system. THAT's, IF, the utility outfit didn't lower their prices, and that's if they were'nt providing you natural gas. I guess they have lowered the overall cost down to, like, the next 20 YEAR's of your life, if big oil and the utility outfit's don't lower the price any more! Us PruneyPicker's, built this enormous solar plant out in beautiful Barstow, CA, spending billion's on it, like 30 year's ago, and they just recently tore it down, CAPUT, FIN'E, OVER"S VILLE, DONE, IT DIDN'T FRICKING WORK!

Anyway, I'm not sure if the Obama Banana bunch have given up on the idea or not, but the STOCK's are sure saying that they have!

I haven't talked about the wind mill's, YET, but, we are getting them installed here. They are doing them out by Milford, about 40 mile's west of us, and they've been bringing the trucks through town, with the BLADE's loaded on them, it take's two trailer's to carry JUST the blade's, as they are over a hundred foot long. We used to have this beautiful place here, but now, we are being dotted with these obnoxious wind mill's, sitting there going, WOOOSSH, WOOOOSH, WOOOOOOSH, cluttering up the land scape, for a hundred miles. I don't know if youv'e ever been through Palm Springs, on the I-10 freeway, or up in Tehachapi, CA, but they are the most obnoxious thing's I've ever seen. They cost 2.5 million buck's for each tower, PLUS, the motor's have to be replaced within less than five year's, as in, you run your car motor 24 hour's a day, how often will you have to replace that?

ANYWAY, I think the stupid thing's are getting close to a buy here, hahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!! I truly believe, that the people that drove PruneyVille into bankruptcy, that is, the people that are running the country NOW, like, Waxman, Pelosi, Boxer, Water's and FienStien (OOPS), will make sure we get this thing going. I mean, HOW BAD CAN IT GET???? My personal preferrence, would be to take TAN or FAN, OR, do a pair's trade, like, shorting TAN, and buying FAN, as FAN seem's to be basing here, OR, buy them both and short Natural Gas, as it will probably keep going down, until they break them.

Thank You BZ!!

As the people who have been following me for the last few years know, I've been trying to change my life around, and get my act together, so this summer I decided not to drink any more (I don't drink any LESS, but, hey, wad ever), and get my head firmly planted on my shoulders, so with nothing else to do, I decided to try some coke out, and Lo and Behold, the damn thing started showing up with it's own head and shoulder's, woooooo hoooooooo!!! TSV and Money Stream have been in a solid down trend since the pump brother's on Da Street tried to move it up at the end of May, and get it over that $50 level, they managed to get a full blown effort going in mid July that took it AAALLLLLLLL the way above fifty, another WHOLE FRICKING dollar, and now it appear's to be coughing it up again. I could easily see this thing going back to that 47.20 level, and then if it breaks that, down to the fifty day MA around 45.40.
Hmmmm, I wonder if $45.40 is what they will be charging for a bottle of coke by that time, woooooo hooooo, count me in!!

I emailed BZ this morning, http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/ , and bitched at him for sending his lousy smoke cloud into my town, from the fire's down in SouthernPrunePickerVille. Hell, it's been like a fog here the last two or three days, or an LA stage three smog alert, and I'm about 600 mile's north of him.

Welp, being the God he is, he said he'd do what he could do, and sure as heck, he managed to move the Jet Stream a couple of miles south of me and east of me. The bottom picture is looking south, with the red arrow right at the edge of the smoke cloud. The top picture is looking at the mountains east of us, at the arrow you can just barely see the little hill in back of the tree's, while when you look to the left you can see how clear it is, the question mark is SUPPOSED to be sitting on a mountain, which obviously has dissappeared, hahahaha!

Cool, thanks Mr. Z, I appreciate it!!! Especially since you are backing it up down in Cedar City, at Captain Kirk's place, http://www.thekirkreport.com/ , he's 55 miles south of me, hahahahahahah! He's blaming his smoke on the Mill Flat fire, but in listening to the Salt Lake TV stations yesterday, they are claiming our's is from the Southern Cal fire's, as they showed the satellite with the smoke coming right out of So Cal.

By the way, that hill in the south looking picture was on fire for over a month, the result of another one of the damn "FED's" "controlled burns", hahahahaha, they have changed the name of them to "Prescribed" burns, the roach's!

MSW Weekly Update 8/30/09

In a complete rebuttal of the prior end of the world post, the MSW weekly ETF swing trade scan is solidly in the green, with 108 total buy signals, and only 26 total short signals. HOWEVER, it is evenly split on the new trade signals, with 14 new buy and short signals, meaning, it doesn't have the foggiest idea where we are going. The top two charts show a couple of buys, it like's steel, SLX, and it's semi hot, wanting to buy USD. It also like's bonds, with TIP, CXA, and PLW, South America, GML, oil and energy with DXO and VDE, and it still has a healthy opionion of IYH.
On the short side, it doesn't care for financials and materials, which goes along with the weekly money flow post, wanting to short FAS, PFI, and UYM. EEK! It want's to short emerging markets, in the form of EET, ALTHOUGH, it has no signals on the big index, EEM.

On the daily scan, it's pretty unsure about the market in general, as it only has a total of 29 buy signals, and 33 short signals, but it has a bearish basis on the new signals, with only 2 new buys, and 9 new shorts. The signals seem to confirm it's confusion, as it loves the Vanguard Europe Pacific index, VEA, but want's to short it's Pacific index, VPL, and Japan, EZJ, meaning Europe must be doing some thing right (that'll be the day, hahahaha). It hate's the total market, as it has new short's on the Russell 3000, UWC, and the Ultra SP 500, UPRO, but when I look at the weekly scan above, it has a new buy on the UPRO, on a longer term basis. Adding to MY confusion, is that when looking at the confirmed signals, the hollow green arrow's, down at the bottom it has a confirmed buy on the XLB, completely at odd's with the short on the UYM on the weekly signals.

Bottom line, I get the feeling the MSW is kind of drifting along, looking for some thing, pretty much like the market's have been doing.

It's also very bullish on the weekly Russell 1000 signals, as it's on 141 total buy signals, and only 50 total short signals, although it's pretty split on the new signals, with 12 new buys, and 13 new shorts. I'm showing a some what interesting "pair's" trade it has, on the chart's, as it say's to buy BAX and MYGN, and short ALXN and AMGN, that sound's like some thing that could work, although, with my luck, ALXN and AMGN will go up, and the udder two down, hahahaha!

Some other interesting chart's I see, are the buy's it has on MHP, BPOP and PRGO, and the short's on KFT, CNW, RE, PLL, and PSA.

The daily scan is pretty weak looking, IMHO, as it only has a total of 34 buy signals, and 48 short signals, not very many signals for over 1000 stocks, and pretty evenly split. I'm not to wild about the new buy signals, 7 of them, MIL is marginal at best. There's 10 new short signals, and all of them look decent, especially BLK and WDC, however, I high lighted PGN and JOE on the chart's, as they look very nice, they are both "confirmed short's", which is a new short signal that "confirms" an existing short signal, IE, a new signal in conjunction with a running signal.

I have an odd ball up there in the upper right corner, it's a new confirmed buy on TZA, the 3 time's bear index of the Russell 2000. I mention this for a couple of reason's, the IWM is struggling on the weekly money stream numbers, and the initial buy signal on it wallowed around for a few day's, but I really like the last two bar's on it. The bar on thursday took out the prior three day's, making a new short term high, then turned around and closed flat, leaving a "grave stone doji", it then gapped down on friday, scaring the shit out of any remaining long's, and in the devious way that market's work, it turned around and made a new closing high for the week, effectively putting all the short's for the week, under water. I also like the tight R/R on this thing, as under friday's low's, and you probably don't want to be sticking around.

There's also a very famous blogger I know, that took this thing long some where in the middle of the week, I don't know if he got shaken out on friday or not, I can't tell you his name, but you might know him as the Captain of the Star Ship Enterprise.

I personally DO NOT recommend these 3 time's bear or bull fund's, as it has been proven to me, that they are the greatest rip off ever, as you would have really dollared down, by going short on both the funds, after they opened up, like going short both FAS and FAZ, as you really get screwed on the daily rebalancing of them, as shown on chart's of both of them, since inception, if you can get it before the reverse splits. Even after the splits, it show's FAS opening at 293, and it's currently 80.20, with FAZ opening at 890, and it's currently at 22.87, so, I think that make's the point. Even so, you could take the thing's on a "SHORT" term time frame, but I wouldn't be hanging around long.

The End of the World, Part Duce

I have decided on a name for this market:
I was sitting on the couch reading a book when one of my children walked up to me and said, "why is my name Petal?"
I replied, "Because when you were born, a petal fell on your head."
The next baby walked up and asked, " why is my name Rose?"
I replied,"Because when you were born, a rose fell on your head."
The last baby walked up to me and said, "BLAS CLAFLAS YIFRASSAM TASSM POONNFFFIINRTY."
With great patience, I replied, "Please be quiet, Anvil."

I bring this up because I got information that Bob Prechter is trying to drop an anvil on the market. Earlier this month he pulled his clients out of the market, his thinking being that the risk of the next wave down was getting very high, they had reached their target for the bottom call he made in March, and it just made sense to take profits and sit back and wait. Well, I understand that either yesterday or friday he told his client's to go all in short, as he feel's the wave two top is in, and the infamous, and breath taking, Wave three down, is about to be upon us.
For those that don't know, the basic Elliott wave pattern's go in 5 wave's, one down, two up, three down, four up, and then finishing with a fifth wave down (reverse that for a bull market). Bob is calling the 18 month bear market "Wave One" down, with the current rally from March, the Wave two UP. Now, what's important about the coming Wave three down, is that Wave three's are alway's the longest, and most violent, wave's. Wave three won't go down in a straight line, it usually get's subdivided into five wave's itself, meaning that should we start to go down shortly, that would just be Wave one, of five wave's down. The key will be the next wave, Wave two UP, as that will determine if this truly is the big Wave three down, as the wave two rally should NOT exceed the high made at the top, prior to Wave one down, or, the high's that we just made (IE, if you short this thing, your stop would be over what ever high's the market make's before Wave one down starts). Now, we may continue to claw our way up here for awhile, who know's, before we start Wave one down, but we will probably know that Wave one has started, if we take out the July low's at some point, and if we do that, the Wave two counter rally SHOULD NOT take out what ever highs we make, prior to that first wave. I should mention here, that most of the Elliott Waver's I follow, are looking for an A-B-C bear market, with the March low's being Wave A down, and we are in Wave B up, waiting to start the final Wave C down, to complete this bear market, some time in 2015.
My personal opinion is, is that we aren't ready yet, as it just seem's to me, that to many damn people are calling for a pull back in September-October, and I feel the market god's (AKA, the PPT), are not going to let that happen. The classic senario would be for the market to continue to grind up during this period, and frustrate the hell out of people wanting to short this thing, and keep those poor individual's who missed the bottom in March, chasing the market higher, trying to buy high, and sell higher, or, in the case of fund manager's, keep them "performance chasing", trying to keep up with the Jone's (or GS, hahahaha). We then go up, like into the end of earning's season in late October, or into November, when the all clear is given by virtually all the yakking, yelling, screaming, talking analyst head's on the Tube, and the udder media, that earning's are really great, this is the bull market of a life time, PLUS, we are going into the best six month period of the market's, from November to May, and you absolutely have to be FULLY invested, or you are going to miss out on the opportunity of a life time!!! THEN, I think we have a chance to start the next leg down. I'm probably wrong, I usually am, but I could see that happening. Hey, who know's, we could start the stupid thing tomorrow.

Another thing that got me up at 3AM on a Sunday morning, is the note I received this weekend from Bob McHugh, in his never ending effort to get me to resubscribe to his service. Usually, he send's me a note like, "We see a HUGH move coming in the market's in the next few week's", "Our indicator's are predicting a HUGH move coming", IE, he never say's which way, as he want's me to pay to play. Here's his note this weekend:
"This weekend's expanded market report for subscribers at http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/ studies the stock market's coming catastrophic wave (C ) down. We study why it is coming, when it could start, how long it could last, and how far down it could take prices. Do not miss this critical investor study."
Hmmmm, he's not EXACTLY saying it's going to start tomorrow, just that it's "COMING". Several of my reader's have told me that Bob has been spot on the last two year's, so, he probably bear's listening to. You can get a one day subscription for 20 bucks (actually, it's only 19.95, with a special discount this weekend for 15.95, wooo hoooo!), so you can read all his post's since he started, for one day at least. I'm not pumping this, do what you want, I stopped subscribing to him for personal reason's, he was ALWAYS bearish, although he would make bullish swing trading call's, but his interjection of religion into his market analysis kind of bugged me, wad ever, like I said, it's just kind of a personal thing. He does have some terriffic "indicators" that he developed, that can be duplicated on a platform like TradeStation.

Lastly, I saw Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, on a quick spot on one of the network's on friday, I think, and he's saying the fumes are about to run out as well, I did find an article about it, http://bit.ly/nsous . I think Charlie is a funny guy, in a good way, I know CNBC just has him on so they can hassle him and make fun of him, as he's a little slow when he's on the Tube, but his call's have been very good, and he's not alway's bearish, as he used to piss me off with his bullshitiness, telling the short's they were a bunch of idiot's, according to his research.
I also saw Charles Nenner on some thing recently, http://charlesnenner.com/ , and I "think" his cycle work is calling for a top as well, I don't know, do a search on him, maybe you can find it. I gave you Barry Rosen's chilling out look on August 19, if you feel like being scared out of the market, check it out, http://cluelessqtrader.blogspot.com/2009/08/barry-me.html .

ANYWAY, I think this whole damn thing started last night, as I was watching "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy", and I think I fell asleep right after the Vogon's destroyed the earth, and I woke up with a start this morning, with the vision of the nutso walking around with the sign hanging on him, saying "THE END IS NIGH", and he was RIGHT! SO, take this for what it's worth, NOTHING, but, I definitely won't be in, in the morning, as I'll be heading back down to Wally World, to stock up on more of those life saving items, HAND BASKETS, wooooo hooooooo!!!

Late PS: This is like totally irrelevant to any thing (what isn't on this blog, hahaha), but kind of in line with the Guide to the Galaxy thing, I surfed through the SyFy channel this morning, and, well, you'll have to kind of excuse my view's, because I'm old, and I was brought up in a kind of old fashioned, romantic, men are men, women are sweet, etc etc, type enviroment, that's why I kind of like fantasies like the Guide is (THAT, plus I spend all my time involved in a fantasy world, it's called the stock market, ahahaha, HAH!), but I have to tell you, the SyFy movies are the single most OBNOXIOUS thing's I have EVER seen!! Number one, they make most of their own movies, and they are cheesy, low quality graphic type things, but the worst part, has to be the writer's, as the same individual's must write for all their movies. I mean, what they do, is create the single most obnoxious charater's I have EVER seen, all the women are, EXCUSE ME, BITCH's, the men are either winey, wimpy creep's, or the complete polar opposite, over bearing, loud mouthed, totally obnoxious hormone injected ass holes!!! AND THEY ALL YELL AT EACH OTHER ALL THE TIME!! It's like, so 90's, or some thing. It used to be, that Sci Fi or slasher film's usually had charater's in them, that were sweet lovable people, and it made you cringe when they gotten eaten or cut to peices, now, I'M DYING TO SEE THE MF'ER'S GET EATEN OR CUT TO PEICES!!!!!!!
This country, I'm telling Ya, I just don't know what to think.