Weekly Swing Trade Ideas

On the weekly scan, the MSW came up with 5 new buys and 21 new shorts, decidedly bearish. Over all, it's on 45 total buys, and 62 shorts, just a slight bearish leaning.

I've decided to stop being a wimp, and I'm going to risk my entire account, and buy Peru, woooo hoooooo!!!! The MSW continues to hate the MDY, which is confirmed in the scan of the individual stocks in the MDY, down at the bottom. Gold may be going to Da Moon, but the MSW think's the base metal fund stinks, DBB. And, just like me, it's not buying the Global warming thesis, GWO.

The daily scan came up with 3 new buys, and 10 new shorts. Overall, it's on 11 buy signals, and 68 total short signals, a pretty bearish bias, but with only 79 signals on over 700 ETF's, it's just not wild about the markets in general.

I'm not really wild about any of the charts, but it seem's to hate any thing with "TOTAL" in it, as in the Vanguard Total market, VTI, and the IShares Total market, IYY.

I scanned the short and Ultra short ETF's to see what would pop up, and surprisingly, NOT MUCH!! It seem's to hate those Ultra ETF's as much as I do, it wants to buy the Small Cap bear fund, TZA, which fits right in line with the scan I did of the Russell 2000, below, as it came up with only 9 new buys, and 62 new short ideas.

The charts are of a VERY FEW of the little guys that I actually trade once in a while, accept for DECK, I hate that stupid company, IMPO take a look at CROC to see where I think this thing should go to, what a croc of what ever, I also think it's hilarious that Russell thinks it's a small cap outfit, while the NasDog think's it's one of the top 100 stocks in their index, hahahahaha! Anyway, I like TTES, it has a nice long base that it's working on, I've had some luck in the past with CRY, and ELON is a focus list stock for the Changewave bunch.

I included an expanded look at the focus list above, it case one of your favorite little buggers is on it.

I also scanned the Mid Cap 400 this week, just to see what would pop up, and what popped up was 7 new shorts, and NO new buys. The only thing I found interesting about this list, is some of the names that were on it, like JOYG, I didn't know that was a mid cap stock, I'll have to stop trading it. I also included the daily signals on the focus list, below.

By the way, the pump is on, as the futures are up about 1/2%, with Asia and Europe up about 1 1/2%, the futures close this morning at 10:30am CT, they also traded last night.

Weekly Sector Update and a Tale of Two Time Frames

Wow, talk about a tale of two time frames, the daily and weekly charts of the index's could not be more different. The daily chart, in the middle, is showing an Island bottom, or Morning Star formation, with new buys on the STOCH and RSI, while the weekly chart at the bottom, is showing an Island Top, Abandoned Baby, or Evening Star formation, with sells on the STOCH and RSI. The one volume charateristic of the week was the huge volume day on tuesday, with declining volume the last three day's, not a particulary great setup when you get a huge distribution day, followed by a lack of buying interest, despite the pump yesterday.

The $NASI, at the top, is on a clear sell setup, as it made a MUCH lower high in August, even as the index's made new highs for the rally period, same thing with the RSI, and this past week was a pretty negative candle. When you look at the STOCH, the 5,3,3 setting is very good for spotting trends on the weekly time frame, when the fast and slow lines cross over, it is currently on an obvious SELL. To be fair, the $NYSI did NOT make a lower high, but it is on sell's on both the STOCH and RSI.

As I said I would, I exited the QQQQ trade yesterday, when we challenged the 40.22 high, MUCH TO EARLY naturally, as the pump continued into the close. It's probably to early to say we broke the "possible" head and shoulder's pattern I said could develope, as a break of 16 cents over that 40.22 high is probably not enough to confirm that it's done, but it ain't looking good. The daily definitely looks like it want's to attack the prior highs, it all depends on what happens next week when Da Boyz come back from vacation, and start manning the desk's themselves. MY personal experience, is that we don't get a true direction until the week AFTER they get back, IE, the week after next week.
IMHO (that H is for Humble), the R/R is on the short side, as your stop is above the highs, above 41. Any hint of making a lower high, or some kind of reversal day, like an outside day, or bearish engulfing bar, will confirm it. Otherwise, if they decide to take us to Da Moon, it's going to be the obnoxious buy high and sell higher, or CHASING it, trade, YUCKO!!

The Sector money flows the past week were just terrible, with the only positive money stream coming in, waaaaa laaaaaa, GLD! Last week, we only had ONE negative sector out flow, and the week before that, we had ZERO out flows, quite an amazing turn around. The worst out flows, down at the bottom, came in IYW (tech), DIA, SPY and DBA, I just don't have a handle on this GLD trade, as the DBA is saying we are in DEFLATION, not inflation, DBC is not much better.

The Q chart on there is a weekly chart, with TSV (time segmented volume), and money stream, you probably can't see it, but we just poked out head under the uptrend line on TSV, we have not done that on the MS yet. One thing that stikes me, is that we have been unable to make any higher highs in the TSV since the June highs, even as we have continued to make higher highs on price, TSV has been dead flat.

I did some thing a little different this week, and ran an MS on the Morningstar Industries, to see who's getting the flows. If you throw out the metals, the top industries are showing people are smoking and drinking more soda pop, while listening to music, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Sounds like a lot of people sitting around with nothing to do, if you ask me, no wonder the healthcare stocks start showing up at the top of the list!!! I notice waste management is doing pretty decently, and no wonder, as they are probably needing to piss more, drinking all that soda pop. TV and gambling are right in there, with CaTV, which goes right along with all of the above. The Transport's are showing surprising strength, with Air Delivery and freight, trucking, and Rails showing up with positive flows, they must be busy delivering all those TV's and soda pop.

Anyway, I'm having to much fun, I'll update the MSW later this weekend, I'm planning on doing a scan on the Russell 2000, and the mid cap's, to see if anything is popping up on them. Have a restful holiday.

ETF MSW Update

I ran the ETF screen through the MSW this morning, to see what it was thinking heading into this long weekend, while I was waiting on the payroll report.
First off, the MSW consider's itself to be an excellent picker, and hate's any thing middling, so in that vein, it hate's ANY THING with MID in it's name, as in the S&P Mid cap index, as it has a new sell on the MDY, in the upper right hand corner chart. It's consistent, as it also wants to sell UVU, JKH, IJK, and PJG. I use the weekly scan, as I think that produce's the best results, and I have to say, that MDY chart look's like a sell to me.

It's saying that we have volatility coming up, when Da Boyz get back from the Hampton's next week, as it has a new buy on the VXX, the VIX short term futures, this is the first buy since it started selling it in March. It also has a confirmed buy on VXZ, the VIX mid term futures, so it thinks volatility is going to be with us for a while.

The bottom two chart's show new sell's on FAN and OIH, which bring's up the gold mania. Now, it like's gold, as it has buys on DBP, UBG, GDX and AGQ, but I have to say, this gold situation is one of the weirdest things I've seen in some time, as the other commodities are just not supporting the inflation bug's thesis, either one or the other is wrong, either this massive gold pump is just a huge sucker bet, or the other commodities are going to play catch up in a big way.

It currently has sell's on GSG, WOOD (Wood is Good!), DBB, UHN, UGA, UCD, IXC, UCO, ERX, RYE, GCC, UYM, ADZ, CMD-A, as shown on the focus list on the bottom. I will also say, that the charts of DBC, DBA, and USO look pretty awful.

Contributing to my confusion, is that I swear the dollar chart look's like it's basing, and the MSW confirm's that, as it has a confirmed buy on the UUP on the daily charts. Some thing evil this way, is a coming!! Maybe it has some thing to do with the big international meeting that's going on, and they are going to announce they are dumping the dollar, for a new world order monetary system!!!! I have to say, the chart of GLD looks terriffic, and with the huge inverted head and shoulders formation on this, this break out project's up to about 130, as a possible target.

Speaking of gold, it's dumping in the premarket, hahaha, only down about 7 points, after the payroll report came in at -216K, better than the expected -230K, like I said, it's weird, for if the economy is improving, you would think it would be blowing up off of the report, wad ever!! SP futures were up before the report, and are basically still up, about the same, meaning it worries me, as the report was already built into the market. One reason the futures may not have moved up, is that the unemployment RATE jumped to 9.7%, two tenths higher than expected. Good luck today.

9/3/09

2:20pm: I couldn't help myself, I took a position in the Q's today. I mentioned yesterday that I liked that candle for an R/R trade, with a stop under 39, well, we actually opened up on yesterday's highs this morning, hahahahaha, what a bunch of nutso's. Anyway, I had no interest, but we started pulling back pretty quick, and then took out yesterday's close, and the low's of the last bar, and started pulling back even quicker, and then I started REALLY sitting up in my seat, when we got down close to yesterday's low, at 39.04, the think blue horizontal line. I circled the take it bar, we took out yesterday's low by a whooping two cent's, and then that bar started rebounding right away, my take was over the open of that bar, on the next bar, at 39.14, with a stop under 39.

Now, I only took a partial position, and then, when I got lucky and we went back up and challenged yesterday's highs, I took partials off of that, woooo hoooo. I still have a partial of a partial position left. I think the payroll report in the morning is going to be better than expected, whether we get a pop off of that or not, I'm not sure, as it may be built in. Regardless, I've moved my current stop up to 50% of my take it price, at 39.32, to lock in profits in case we get a pull back in the premarket after the report (unless we gap down over night under my stop, before the premarket open, ROACH's).

My "PLAN" (hahaha, yeeaaa, rriiiggghhtt), is outlined on the daily chart at the top. SHOULD I GET LUCKY, and we wallow up for next week, or so, I PLAN on taking profit's between 40 and 40.20. 40.20 is the high we made (actually it was 40.22, but I like round numbers) inside that left shoulder. My projection, is that we wallow around and set up a right shoulder on this thing, the time frame should be about equal to the left shoulder, or ten days. What this would do, is allow the long term trend line from March to keep moving up, until it reach's the $40 level almost perfectly, in ten day's.

Plan's are great, as you can imagine. I plan on taking profit's in that area I talked about, REGARDLESS, if I get lucky, and I'll keep moving my stop up as we go. If I get stopped out before we get there, IE, we turn back down, then I'll be watching to see how we react IF we attack the main trend line again, ESPECIALLY, if it is a test of the 50dma, which right now is walking up, inside that main trend line (you can't see it). The other senario, would be if we get a clean break over that 40.20 level, in that case we may be after new highs for the rally period.

Of course, I could just get blown out of the water in the morning, such is life.

Why Detriot is going Broke (eeeerrrrr, already has)

This is my ,"NEW", truck, it's a 1989 F-250 (3/4 ton), it has a 351 CI V8, the same engine the RedNecks use in NeckCar. I picked this up from a very close relative, at the RIGHT price, he used it for his freeway truck, and even though it's 20 years old, it only has 55K miles on it. "MY", truck is a 1995 F-150, extra cab with bucket seats. Now, the 95' has the small V8, the 302 CI, it get's 15MPG in the city, and about 20 on the freeway. The 89', even with the bigger engine, get's 17 MPH when I take it out to the ranch, that includes about 6 miles of dirt roads, and gets about 23 MPG on the freeway, out the loneliest highway in America, Highway 50. My plan is to use this for the ranch, so I don't continue to beat my 95' up, and then put the 351 in the 95', when it goes kablooey, as I have 165K on that one.

I bring all this up, because I was looking at the new one's, http://www.fordvehicles.com/trucks/superduty/trim/?trim=f250xl , HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, my god, no wonder the idiot's have been going broke, 20 years of all that advanced technology they've been working on, and the stinking things get worse gas mileage than my 89'! One thing that really crack's me up, is that when I look at the F-250's, I can't get the MPG on it, I have to go to the F-150, where it says the 3.4 L (I guess that's the 351, maybe not? probably the 302), gets 14 MPG in the city and 20 on the highway, the 4.2L engine, which I think is the 289CI, get's 15-21, woooooo hooooo, a whole whooping one more MPG!!!!

Why in the HELL, would I spend $25K on a bottom of the line new one, when for less than a couple of grand, I can get the local yocal wrench jockey to flop engines into my 95', and go on my merry way for another 200k miles???? No wonder they came up with that cash for clunkers program, they are trying to spare the auto maker's the embarassment of people finding out what the REAL CLUNKERS ARE!!!!!!!!

Some Senario's

6:30pm: IF, I were to consider taking my stake with the rest of the gold nut's, I "MIGHT", consider a pair's trade with DGP and UUP, although, IT'S FAR FROM PERFECT! Starting from the left, when DGP opened up, it LOST 55% from April of 08', into it's low in October of 08', while UUP gained 22%, the blue line. Since October of 08', DGP has gained 75%, while UUP has lost ONLY 14%, the yellow lines. Inside of that last period, DGP gained 27% from early April of this year, to May 29, while UUP lost 8% during that period, a little shorter term time frame, to see how they interact with each other. At the purple lines, with the question marks, I showed how THEY MOVED IN THE SAME DIRECTION (hahahahahaha, I thought they weren't SUPPOSED, to do that???).
ANYWAY, I suppose, that if you were bullish on gold, you could take an equal share amount on both, with UUP as a hedge. If gold went up, you would pick up mucho bucko, while if it went down, you wouldn't lose as much as the other NUTS!! In theory, to have a true hedge, you would have to take more than twice as many shares of UUP to hedge the gold play, more like three times as much (or more), but since your a gold nut, why hedge at all, RIGHT?!! Anyway, were I to take this play, on a personal basis, I would day trade the shit out of both of them, with options, like buying put's or selling call's on one side or da udder, at least it would keep me occuppied and entertained. It's "probably" worth a look, on my part.

2:00pm: The market's were very flat today, we had a decent little late day sell off, the last 20 minutes, that left a kind of tight little doji, that "could" be, a continuation doji, that is, we get a big sell off, like yesterday, then a pause, and then a "continuation" of the prior sell off the next day. I don't see how some thing like that can happen, with every thing being as honkey dorey as it is. What's it also doing, is setting up a nice little R/R trade, if this is a bottom instead, as your stop would be under the low's of today, depending on what happen's tomorrow.

Hmmmm, I couldn't figure out what that noise was, that I kept hearing this morning. What it was, was the yelling and screaming coming out of the gold nut pit in Chicago, as gold broke out over it's upper trend line today.
Very strange stuff, IMHO. Silver actually broke over it's upper trend line on monday, while OIL has actually broken it's LOWER TREND line. The dollar was actually UP pretty big yesterday, and dropped today, but all it did was basically get back to where it was the day before yesterday, the chart, to ME, look's like a double bottom, and a basing pattern.
I can only imagine that either the gold nut's think a dollar collaspe is coming, or it's another fake out break out. We shall see.

5:30am: I have a chart of the SPY up, but ALL the major index's look the same, as everyone in the WackoSphere (thanks for calling me a Wacko Sys, just don't call me late for cocktail hour) has pointed out, we had a "key reversal" day, where we took out the prior day's high's, and then closed under the low's, an uuuugggillly day no matter what you call it, taking out the 20MA, AND, doing it with large volume, don't help matter's much.
ANYWAY, this chart is WAAAAAAAY to CUTE! The main trend line, going back to the start of the rally in March, come's in right at the low's of August, around 975 on the SPX, which will also coincide with that rising 50MA, a very logical, and like I said, very "CUTE", support area. Should the market god's decide to let us have a little fun for a couple of day's (the futures are dead flat right now, although we just ticked down a hair after the ADP came in a little worse than expected at -298K), I could see us BREAK that main trend line, and throw everyone into a tizzy, and then maybe test the next support area, which is the June high's at "around" 950.

If we do some thing like that, it completely screw's me and my antiquated way of trading, for what would happen is that we would make a new low, IE lower than the August low, BUT, we would be doing it after coming off a NEW HIGH, therefore, there is NO trend. I would have to wait to see what the first rally does off this pull back, and what I would want to see, would be a LOWER HIGH, just like we did during the June pull back, when we dumped off that lower high on the first trading day of July, then I would have a confirmed down trend to start playing with. Until some thing like that happen's, the trend is still, obviously, UP.

NOW, there's a couple of udder interesting thing's that could happen down the road. Should my tax money not be enough for the PPT to support the market, and they get over whelmed by the tax selling by mutual fundies and corporations (which is one of the reason's that September is weak, it's a year end for a lot of them), if we lose that 950 level, we have an Air Pocket, or VOID, back down to where this dumb ass rally started in July, about 875-850, as the rally left no pull back's to act as support. That would be really cool, as you could pick up some decent change on the short side, PLUS, it would give us a 10-15% pull back, just what we need to get the bull's refreshed, and ready to blast us off into November, after a few more lies on the economic front from the Government. Like I said, this is all just TO CUTE!

The last thing, and this is a little far fetched at this point, but the god's may decide to screw everyone, and hold the August low's, YUCKO!! But, if you look at it, we MAY set up ANOTHER (hahahahaha) head and shoulder's formation, with the last week's shitty action being the head, the early to mid August time frame being the left shoulder, so we would set up a right shoulder with a wallowing late September rally that take's us back up to those highs, around 110-115, with about two week's as the time frame for a crappy move like that. The neck line would then probably be the August low's, but like I said, this is unlikely, and would be down the road aways.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

WELCOME TO FRICKING SEPTEMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vprDWPBDIxQ&feature=related

BZ must have lost his MoJo with the wind god's, as the smoke moved back in over night, but it did make for a beautiful sunrise, this is looking west.

SAY IT AIN'T SO, MSW!!!! It want's to short my favorite stock (for obvious reason's), FO! As you can imagine, it's picking up on more short's than new buy's, HOWEVER, I think that buy it want's on APOL is wrong, I think that thing has more to go on the down side. I also think it's a little early on one of my other favorite stocks, big MO, it's kind of weird, as it came up with buy's on two of my other favorite's, FLS and FST.

Most of the short's look exactly like the bottom two chart's, my personal feeling is that this will probably be another one day wonder, and my tax money will be back in use, in full force, tomorrow, as the PPT come's in to keep all those zombie bank's alive, and keep the lies going. Wad ever, I spent the day partialing out of some of my "T" hedge's, although I will be ready to add them back, at the blink of an eye (as in eye yiiiii yiiiiiii!!).