Weekly MSW Swing Update 9/12/09

Sigh! I'm not getting any weekly signals on the MSW, I'll work on it, maybe it will update on the turn of the week, tomorrow.
The above is the daily swing signals, there's 4 new buy signals, and 8 new short signals, over all it's on 25 total buy signals, and 17 total short signals. The thing I see right away with the signals, is the extremely low amount of them, I mean, 42 total signals, out of over 700 ETS's?? The software is just not finding any thing it likes, which includes the Russell 1000 and 2000 below, it feels pretty much the way I do.
I put a couple of the new buys on the top charts, IAI and ELG, but I'm not to wild about either one. The one, kind of interesting thing, I did see, was the charts of the QQQQ and OEF at the bottom. The MSW put a confirmed buy signal on the Q's yesterday, which is actually a new signal, that CONFIRMS the new buy it put on them, on tuesday. Anyway, it has a new short signal on the OEF, the S&P 100, but what's more interesting to me, is the trend lines it has on both charts. It's the exact same trend line on both of them, starting at the same point, with the same pivot point for the second line touch. However, the Q's are walking on TOP of the line, while the OEF is walking up the bottom side of the line. I really hate the look of that OEF chart, also, it has a slight BOF, as it made a new rally high yesterday, but failed to hold that high into the close.
I intend to try out a pairs trade on them next week, buying the Q's and shorting the OEF. I intend to slightly over weight the Q's, for as of right now, I don't really see the big one coming for awhile, although my trigger finger will be tied to the mouse.

Out of the over 1000 stocks in the Russell 1000, the MSW came up with just 7 new buys, and 11 new shorts, and one of those is the OEF, that I keep in here for no particular reason.
I actually like the two buys I show on the charts, CSE and S, they both broke out over a pretty extended down trend line this week, and "could", try and test the previous highs at some point, althought they are basically penny stocks, and you won't see much of a run, point wise.
On the two shorts at the bottom, TNB and TKR, I'd probably take a Bett on TNB, I could see it testing that lower trend line. TKR has an obvious BOF, break out failure bar, as it made new rally highs, but failed to hold them, and closed lower yesterday. I don't think you'll get much out of it though, as I think that lower trend line looks like pretty solid support, and is only about a point away. I had no idea this company has been around for 110 years, I listened to a pretty impressive sounding (don't they ALL sound that way??) analyst on Taking Stock, he was very positive sounding on the stock, as their engine and ball bearing products will be in higher demand as the Transports pick up steam, during the RECOVERY!!

Which brings up the fact, about how stinking sick I am already, about hearing about the fricking RECOVERY!!!!! I mean, I had to hear about it for eight fricking years during the Bushie years, the recovery this, the recovery that, on and on and on, until finally, the RECOVERY came true, as we RECOVERED the bear market lows of eight years earlier!!!!! FRICKING ROACH'S!!!!


I really couldn't see much on the small caps, the MSW came up with 9 new buys, and 18 new shorts. I show two buys on the top charts, CRDN and AZZ, and two shorts on the bottom, NTLS and HR. The reason I picked these, is that the two buys look EXACTLY like the two shorts, IMPO they look like stinking shorts to me! It looks like CRDN is hitting resistance, in a very clear range trade, and AZZ has a horrible looking bear flag, that's flagged right up and bumped against the upper trend line, and is testing the bottom side of the lower trend line.

On a side note, I really like this guy's simple trading system, the ABC pattern, http://gicharts.blogspot.com/ . I checked him out because of his Twitter update on day trading AAPL, but I REALLY like him now, as he's seeing a possible ABC in "C", hahahaha! I'm laughing, because being the idiot I yam, I'm already in it. I think the outfit is an unbelievable peice of junk, but I can't help seeing some thing I like. I'm limiting my risk by being long March 5 strike calls, my plan is to counter trade near term short 5 strike calls against it, but at this point I'm still in the "accumulation" stage on it. Da stinking government is so intent on proping these zombie peices of shit up, with our tax money, and transferring the coming losses to us (did you see the article this week, where it appears we won't get a DIME back from the 70 billion we pumped in to save the UAW???), I'm hoping there's just enough pumping power left to double this thing. I think I commented on the triangle it's formed on the 60 min chart, like, yesterday?? I would anticipate a quick drop below the lower trend line, to scare out the weak holders (like, ME, hahahaha), and then a pop back up, to try and get them chasing it again. I shall see, what I shall see.

Weekly Sector Money Flows

As you would expect, after an UP week, the money flows completely reversed from last week, with the various sectors all up, accept for two. The one is not surprising, DBA, which, I am keeping one eye on, for if the inflation thesis is correct, you can't hold a good grain down for ever. The REAL surprise, was the negative flow in GLD, I have no explanation for it, udder dan some body must be lying (that can't be, can it???)!
Like I said earlier this week, the Q's are probably on their merry way to the 48 "area", the trend is your friend until they break that lower trend line, or the TSV and MS break their lower trend lines. By the way, that little orange line, way at the top, that the Q's are butting their head up against, is the 200 week MA, it probably don't mean diddly squat.
Unless I am living in La La Land, I think I noticed that the bonds were all UP this week, with maybe TLT being flat, meaning, some body is going to be wrong, BIG TIME, on this rally, as the bond vigilante's are betting that thing's are not, aaaaaahhhhhhh, all that they seem!

The Industry groups showed a lot of the same from last week, with a couple of new ones, like conglomerates (thanks GE), telecom (thanks Mr. "T"), some industrial equipment, defense and areospace, cement, recreation, reits, jewerly stores, I mean to tell ya, THESE PEOPLE ARE FRICKING DREAMING!!!!! SIGH, I guess that's what makes a market, dreamers!

One little scan I do, is to run a scan of stocks down, three days in a row, you know how I looooove to take some thing that set's up, after a three day pull back. ANYWAY, I ran that screen on these industries, and out of over 250 various industries, there are 3, THREE, industries, that are down three days in a row, auto parts stores, restaurants and diversified utilities, can you believe this shit!!!!!!!! One day, I'll be sitting here running a screen, on industries that are DOWN, less than 10 days in a row, and I won't find ONE!!!!!!

The DOW is a Stoggy Old Party Pooper

The 30 best stocks in the world must suck, I guess! I imagine some of the "defensive" plays (IE, that's where those lying (just call me "WILSON", wooo hooo, my new hero) slime bag analyst tell you to stash your money when the market goes down, because they "OUT PERFORM", hahahaha, they go down LESS that the rest of the market) are holding it back. The XLI is supposed to be close to the same thing, but it has 56 stocks in it, rather than the 30, I guess some of those udder 26 are a lot better stocks.

Really weird, is the Transports, IYT, have broken out. The DOW was leading the transports up until the latest break out, this of course, is part of DOW theory, when they both confirm a new break out move. I have no doubt that the DOW will start making up ground, and join their brethern like the SPY, Q's and IWM, as the INDU is only 3 points under a new high. Through some weird circumstance, should we finally start pulling back, with out the DOW breaking out, that would be considered a, aaaaaahhhhhh, warning shot.

Remember the pull back we had in June, right into the start of earnings season, when GS blasted off the current rally????? That's probably to far back for a lot of people, BUT MARK MY WORDS, if this rally continue's into the start of earnings season next month, woooooooooo weeeeeeeeee, these outfit's better start beating on the TOP line, as well as the EPS number's, BIG TIME, or inwestor's may start fleeing the scene! We had verwy verwy low expectations for earning's in July, that has all changed now!

Double, Double, Toil and Trouble

To Be, or NOT To Be, that is the Question, whether Tis nobler in the minds of traders, to make a new unbelieveably over valued piece of junk out of the Q's, by breaking out over the previous highs, or whether Tis better to pull back, and give value "investors" a chance to take a position, that is the question!

Hahahahaha, enough of the crap, this is probably one of the single most interesting moments I've seen in some time. We just tested the previous rally highs on the Q's, circled in the 5 minute chart at the bottom, the previous high was in the circle on the daily chart, at 41.08, we hit 41.07 on that 5 minute, and pulled back. Since I started writing, we have since broken out over the high, currently at 41.15, and rising.

Even more interesting, is we are sitting right on the main down trend line that goes back to the top in October of 07', that's the blue line that the yellow arrow is pointing to.
If we hold the break out, we really don't have a whole hell of a lot of resistance back up to the high's from just about a year ago, in the 48 "area". There is a couple of bottom shelf's, that show up just prior to that high, about 50 cents higher, and another one around 44, but if they are trying to go for the NasDog Bubble II, they should be no problemo.

A failure to hold this break out today, IE, cough it up and close lower, that would setup a BOF, a break out failure, which I will be all over on the short side.

It remain's to be seen of course, really good stuff going on. Adding to the fun, is that the SPY and DIA are approaching those same highs, although they have yet to break through them.

Plutocracy Trade

7:15pm: I ran a quick scan of the ETF's tonight, and the MSW came up with a new buy signal, on the daily chart of the Q's, IE, it saw some thing it like's today. The only thing it probably really like's, is screwing me, hahahaha, but, wad ever, I can't argue with the brainless software. At this point, the only trade I would take is the hold'em trade, that's when the Q's start breaking out over the previous high's, you take'em long, and then reach down and grab ahold of your ball's, and hang on for dear life!!
The damn software insist's this dump in the dollar today is a buy, wad ever, it's on a sell signal on the weekly chart, but it's approaching a long term support line, which sit's around 22.50. I take trade's like that, because of the R/R on it, I definitely know when I DON'T WANT IT!! Anyway, giving some credence to a LONG dollar trade, is that Larry Crudlow spent practically the entire night, tonight, on the GOLD and SILVER idea, and he's never been right, in his ENTIRE LIFE!!! WAD EVER!!
I'm thinking of shutting the stupid software down, as it can't make up it's mind on the TZA, the small cap 3X Bear fund, it like's if for the long term, IE, the weekly chart, but say's to short the shit out of it on the short term chart, as it has a confirmed short signal on it.
It's nice to see the market acting half ass rational, I don't have the chart's up on them, but the TLT and SPY have been moving in opposite directions the last few days, LIKE THEY SHOULD!!!! Who know's how long it will last.

6:30pm: OUCH!!!!! This is why, just about a year ago, I started moving my IRA accounts into different outfits, I have it currently in TradeStation, Interactive, Fidelity and Vanguard. Interactive is the largest account, I'm not saying that TradeStation is going DOWN, but it ain't looking to hot, I'm more comfortable with the larger amount in Interactive. It's really weird to, because TradeStation has the best deal, they are just slightly more expensive than IB, but I get the real time chart's for free, plus the system testing capabilities, and all you have to do, is trade 50 option contract's a month, or more, hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!! I, aaaaahhhhh, trade a LITTLE more than that.

The big buzz word on the Wackosphere this weekend seemed to center on " plutocracy ", and NTRI seem's to fit that well. All of their "spoke's people" are RB's (Rich Bastard's), and my personal opinion is that you need to be one to be in the program, as it most certainly doesn't "save you money", especially Mr. and Mrs. Six Pack, as there's no way they could put themselves and their six kids on it. Also, it always make's me nervous when an outfit flood's the air way's with their commercial's, as it gives me the impression they are desperate and going broke, like Vontage (it's beyond me how you can "save money", by having to buy a computer, and pay for your high speed Inet connection every month, but wad ever).

Anyway, I plan on taking a position, the thing has been in a beautiful base for a year now, and the bear market low was not that far from the bottom of the current base, 10.50 compared to about 13 for the bottom of the current base. The $15 level is strong resistance that goes back over a year, and then there's another shelf around $15.75- 16, but once it get's through THAT, it has an air pocket, or VOID, up to $21.56, the high from a year ago. Above that, and the sky's the limit.

The market's are blowing up this morning, all of it over, NOTHING, futures are up over 1%, GOLD broke over the previous high of 105, and is currently stalled at 106.10, oil is up 2.5%, deciding to quit being a party pooper, and get with the program.

The $SPX is gapping up right into the congestion area from two week's ago, just under the rally high's, this, naturally, take's out my H & S possibility I was looking at. My first thought is "DOUBLE TOP!", so, again, NATURALLY, if I'm thinking that way, it mean's Da Boyz are going to jamb us to new rally highs after the open, hahahahahahahaha!! My personal opinion is you would have to be a fool to buy the open, as I anticipate a huge battle in that congestion area, and if Da Pumper's can't get us to new rally high's pretty soon, they may try a gap fill to punish all those buyer's in the future's the last two day's. Those same buyer's may add to a gap fill attempt, as they will probably be a bunch of nervous Nellie profit taker's, taking profit's at the first sign of weakness, just my thoughts.

Weekly Swing Trade Ideas

On the weekly scan, the MSW came up with 5 new buys and 21 new shorts, decidedly bearish. Over all, it's on 45 total buys, and 62 shorts, just a slight bearish leaning.

I've decided to stop being a wimp, and I'm going to risk my entire account, and buy Peru, woooo hoooooo!!!! The MSW continues to hate the MDY, which is confirmed in the scan of the individual stocks in the MDY, down at the bottom. Gold may be going to Da Moon, but the MSW think's the base metal fund stinks, DBB. And, just like me, it's not buying the Global warming thesis, GWO.

The daily scan came up with 3 new buys, and 10 new shorts. Overall, it's on 11 buy signals, and 68 total short signals, a pretty bearish bias, but with only 79 signals on over 700 ETF's, it's just not wild about the markets in general.

I'm not really wild about any of the charts, but it seem's to hate any thing with "TOTAL" in it, as in the Vanguard Total market, VTI, and the IShares Total market, IYY.

I scanned the short and Ultra short ETF's to see what would pop up, and surprisingly, NOT MUCH!! It seem's to hate those Ultra ETF's as much as I do, it wants to buy the Small Cap bear fund, TZA, which fits right in line with the scan I did of the Russell 2000, below, as it came up with only 9 new buys, and 62 new short ideas.

The charts are of a VERY FEW of the little guys that I actually trade once in a while, accept for DECK, I hate that stupid company, IMPO take a look at CROC to see where I think this thing should go to, what a croc of what ever, I also think it's hilarious that Russell thinks it's a small cap outfit, while the NasDog think's it's one of the top 100 stocks in their index, hahahahaha! Anyway, I like TTES, it has a nice long base that it's working on, I've had some luck in the past with CRY, and ELON is a focus list stock for the Changewave bunch.

I included an expanded look at the focus list above, it case one of your favorite little buggers is on it.

I also scanned the Mid Cap 400 this week, just to see what would pop up, and what popped up was 7 new shorts, and NO new buys. The only thing I found interesting about this list, is some of the names that were on it, like JOYG, I didn't know that was a mid cap stock, I'll have to stop trading it. I also included the daily signals on the focus list, below.

By the way, the pump is on, as the futures are up about 1/2%, with Asia and Europe up about 1 1/2%, the futures close this morning at 10:30am CT, they also traded last night.