Weekend Musings

One of BZ's, http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/ , "old" systems was to buy 3 day lows, and sell on the close, when you get two consecutive days of higher close's (maybe it's not one of his systems, I looked at his site, and he has a 6 day and a 10 day "system", wad ever, they're all good). As you can see, the equity curve is still very nice (IMHO), going back to 1999, and the "system" actually held up fairly well during the second great bear of this century, last year, so hopefully it will hold up better than the market, when we get the third, and WORST, bear market, yet to come. The "system" actually has even better results when you add in an MA filter, like, only take the trade when price is above the 50dma or 200dma, I'd do a curve on that but I'm to fricking lazy. I'm including the code for it, in the comments section, so you can test it out your self, and add your own filters.

This is ONE (of many), reason's, I ain't trading no stinking index's these days, my Q's 60 min. McClellan strategy has been on a draw down since July 13, when it reached it's equity peak, which not so coincidently, was the blast off out of the GS earnings (I think GS faked their earnings just to totally screw up my Strat, the ROACH's, hahahaha).

The basic strategy is that you buy when the McCellan crosses from below -100, and sell when it crosses above +100, and vice versa on the shorts. The problem since July of course, is the shorts, as it triggers a short sell when it crosses below +100, and it's supposed to buy it back when it get's below -100, but of course, we never get below -100, hahahahaha, SIGH! The other draw down factor is it's not making any money off the long trade's, for the few time's we have gotten below -100, and then crossed back up, the stupid blast off get's it back above +100 in just a few bars, cutting the profit potential short.

For some reason, stupid TradeStation is not giving me much data on it right now, the trade list only goes back to 12/08/08, but the curve looked fairly decent all the way up until July. In some prior posts, I showed the curve on it going back to 1999, and it looked pretty much the same, I searched for some of them, but I lost patience, they are there some where.

I'll post the code for it in the comments section as well, in case anyone is interested, I'm sure it will start working decently again, if and when, the markets actually start doing some dumb ass thing, like actually going up, AND DOWN!

MSW Weekly Update 9/25/09

Bond's were the hot item the last week, as only the bond ETF's had positive money stream's, the TLT made new two month high's today, and if you look way over to the left, it's working on the May highs. I'm telling ya, there's nothing that give's me more of a warm and cozy feeling, than to see bonds, AND STOCKS, moving in the same direction. ONE OF THEM IS WRONG! Hmmmmm, let's see, the bond pit, or the stock idiots, bond pit, stock idiots, hmmmmmmm!!!
GOLD, metals and mining, the XLE and the small cap's saw the most money leaving Dodge.

I high lighted the Auto Manufacturer's in the Industry money stream list, because that chart looks awful familiar, and then it hit me, it's the chart of FORD, hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!! Aren't they the only one left in that industry????

The other high light, is that out of 239 Industries, only 24 had positive money stream's the last week, not to hot.

The MSW ETF scan had 7 new buys on the weekly charts, and 49 new shorts, pretty bearish, as I would expect. I put two of the more interesting buy idea's on the top two charts, just to appease the pollyana bulls, I'm not interested. The two short's at the bottom are very typical of the rest of the short set ups.

That's the list of the rest of the shorts.

The MSW scan of the daily charts of the Russell 1000 came up with 4 new buys, and a baker's dozen on the short side. MCD looks mildly interesting on the long side, but short the shit out of that absolute peice of junk GRMN!!!

The weekly Russell 1000 scan came up with 6 new buys, and 51 new short set ups, the rest of the shorts are on the list below. I screwed the charts up, LM should not be on there, I kind of like ACI instead, TSN is interesting because it's going to be buying back a whole bunch of shares, and it looks like it "could" go up, I definitely would not want it under the lows of this week. All the shorts look good to me, I have SNDK and SMTC on the charts, but they all look pretty much the same.

With our tax money heavily in use, shorting should be only done with speculative money, IMPO.

The candle in the circle, FED day, was THE candle of the WEEK!! Not only was it a BOF, break out failure bar, but it made a new high for the rally period, and then put on one uuuuugggggiillly looking bearish engulfing candle, a very powerful candle indeed!!

Anyway, we stopped right on top of the shelf that was the August highs. If things go according to the way they've been going, after this three day pull back, we should blast off to the moon again, with no body buying it, AGAIN, other than your tax money. There's an article I read about the mutual fund inflow's, the retail has completely dissappeared, accept for people like us, trying to pick up a little change here and there. The seasonal's are in favor of higher next week, as the first three days are the last days of the quarter, plus a lot of year end tax issues are in play, and those performance chasing fund managers who need to get the hot stocks in their portfolio's (RIMM, is obviously, NOT one of them!!)

BUT, should THEY decide to take us down ( a big WOOOO HOOOOO if they do), the 102.50 "area" is a huge support area, with the main trend line coming in from the March low, another shorter trend line coming in from the August and September lows, and the 50dma. Should we get through that, there's quite a bit of congestion from 102.50 down to 97.50, or the August lows.

This is probably quite a ways off, BUT, should we get through those August lows, we are in serious shit, as we have nothing but clear air under us down to the July lows, IE, no support area's. Under that, and there's a couple of little support shelf's, around 82.50, and then 77.50, under that and it's back to clear air down to the March lows. I should be so lucky to ever see those again.

The Q's look basically the same, but as you see in the Sector money flow above, they were actually one of the stronger index's the past week, AND I CAN CERTAINLY SEE WHY!!!! All the NasDog's have done over the last few week's, is get pretty crappy earnings report's from the like's of DELL, PAYX, BBBY, CTAS, ORCL, and topped of with the whopper by RIMM last night!! Fricking people, I'm telling ya, I don't know what they are waiting on, a stinking miracle I guess!!!! INTC start's off the OFFICIAL earnings season on October 13, we shall see, what we shall see.

Trip Pic's

I'm telling Ya, I wasn't a half mile into the ET Highway, http://www.nevadaplaces.com/ETHighway.html , when I ran across this super secret Government Alien research facility!!!!!!!! I got the hell out of there, as fast as I could, for, even though my engine was shut off, the truck began to shake, rattle and roll, violently, for no apparent reason, wwwwoooooo eeeeeeeee wwweeeeeeeeee (that's scary 1950's Sci Fi movie music!!!)!!

Rachel, Nevada, epicenter of the ET Highway, http://rachel.travelnevada.com/ !!!! HAHAHAHAHA, I can only imagine, that the reason they all live in trailers (udder dan dey are typical Desert RATS!), is that they are hoping the ET's will tow their trailers along with them, when they get abducted!!!!!!! BEAM ME UP SCOTTY!!!!!!!!

Geeze, did I screw up this picture!!! I was about 40 miles outside of Rachel, and I see these three antelope's standing by the road, so I turn around and come back, and by the time I could get out of the truck, and take the shot, they were hauling ass. So I take the shot, get back in the truck, turn around and continue on, and they start running with the truck! I clocked them between 35-40 MPH. So I'm all, cool man, and then they start turning for the road, heading right for me. So I'm like, trying to drive, and get the camera back out, and I'm fumbling with it, and they jump right out in front of me, not 40-50 foot away! So I'm like, steering, and clicking away with the camera, and son of a bitch, in my excitement, I never clicked the little button you have to click, to determine the screen shot!!!! SIGH!!! Oh well, just in case you can't tell, by the MAAAAVELLLOUS picture I took, this is what they look like, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pronghorn .

This is a cleverly disguised prop by Da Government, MAAANNNN, pretending it's a sign showing the entrance to Tonapah missle base, BUT WE ALL KNOW, it's really to shoot down UFO's!!!!!!! The really cool part is, I found out I can swing the thing around, using my truck, I intend on coming back this way, during the joint session of congress at the State of the Union address, swing it toward Washington DC, AND TAKE CARE OF AAAAALLLLLLL OUR PROBLEMS!!!!!!!!!! I just need to find a fuse for it some where.

This is Boundry Peak, http://www.summitpost.org/view_object.php?object_id=20365 , highest mountain in Nevada. The picture doesn't do it justice, I was to low, you come over a pass, and there it sit's, rising 13,140 feet, right out of the desert floor. I trained for five years, AT ALTITUDE, here at Beaver, to climb this thing, and all I could do, was make it to the building at the arrow, on my hands and knee's, begging for water!!!

HAHAHAHA!!! The only reason I took this pic, was that it was the first fish caught. This was on the Upper Owen's river, north of Crowley Lake, http://www.sierradrifters.com/closer_look/upper_owens.htm . Both Matt and Morgan caught "about" a half a dozen (we DON'T keep count, RIGHT, fishing is not about competition, HAH!), and, surprisingly, they were all about the same size.

Thing's got just a litttttttle better though, when we went to our super duper secret lake just north of Mono Lake. It's off a little nondescript dirt road, no sign's, nothing, rumor has it, is that it's stocked by the government, just for their upper level government officials, eeeeeerrrrr, PUBLIC FRICKING SERVANTS, the roach's!!!!!!

Morgan hook's up with a big one!

Matt's in the fight of his life!!!!!!

And no wonder, it was a stinking WHOPPER!! Eight pounds and 26 inch's long, it was funnier than hell to watch it pull him around the lake.

Matt didn't even want me to take a picture of this puny little thing, he was so embarrassed, but I thought it was pretty cool!

My goodness, has Brook's changed over the course of the last year! Is he a special case, or do they all change this much their first year??? There's a rumor the first word's out of his mouth were "Hedge yourself".

After seeing this, I decided to shave, besides, it was getting to that itchy stage.

When I pull myself together, I'll get the sector money flows, MSW update, and what ever else bull shit I find, posted over the weekend.