Weekly Sector And Industry Money Flows

Disregarding the dump they had yesterday, bonds continued to lead the money flow stats, that's what, the third week in a row?? The money flow into bonds definitely led the pull back in stocks, some thing to keep an eye on in the future. YIKE's, it appears inwestors are fleeing the sector that my Mr. "T" is in!! The positive money flow into DBC and DBA is interesting, as price wise they were flat and slightly down on the week, some thing to keep an eye on next week, as maybe some one knows some thing.

The top industry money flows are pretty diversified, with a slight bent to defensive industries.

I took a look at the worst money flows, just to see what pops up, semiconductors definitely got their ass kicked last week, and more may be on the way. I high lighted the resorts and casino sector because::::

They were popping up all over the place yesterday, on positive screens. I have LVS on the chart, but all the casino's look basically the same. I really, I mean, REALLY, like this pattern, the pull back stopped dead on the 50dma, and that high shelf from late August, I see that the first pull back from the blast off in July stopped at the 50dma. No doubt, these things are peices of junk, but my risk/reward is very well defined, I just hope they don't gap them up huge, on monday. My target would be a double top retest.

MSW Weekly Short ETF Signals

The MSW weekly scan of the Short ETF's is in complete agreement with Sysin, as it has a couple of new buy signals, and a bunch of confirmed buy signals, a confirmed buy is a NEW signal, on an existing buy signal, IE, it see's some thing that it likes, that "confirms" the previous buy signal. Some of the charts include the RSW, RWM, and DOG (Woof Woof!), with a new confirmed buy signal on the daily charts for ERY. It seems to disagree with him on the QID, as it has a sell signal on it, but it has a weekly confirmed buy on REW and PSQ, which are the same things.

Like he says, and I agree, I would buy them on a pull back. This is just our own personal opinion's of course.

It Can't Be This Easy

2:10pm: Funny market it is, one example is a comparison of DBA and UUP, in the history of these two ETF's they have pretty consistantly moved opposite one another. They have both been moving in the same direction, since June, down. Funny stuff.
The markets had narrow range days, basically sitting on their respective 50dma's. Either this is a continuation day, IE, we rest and then continue down, or they gap us up monday, and the bulls are off to the races again, off this 50dma support.

5:00am:

BreakPoint Trades has been pointing these charts out for some time, the 89 week MA for the $SPX has been providing support and resistant since 2003, this chart can't go back far enough, but it provided support for the run up into 07' several times, it's probably just a miracle that we seem to have stopped RIGHT AT IT, on the current rally. The 20MA on monthly charts work's just as well, and we have run right into that MA.

The IWM has stopped dead in it's tracks, right at the lows from the double bottom in early 08'.

Watch the Baltic Dry Index, like I have said before, it has been diverging against the run up in the markets since June, saying some body has been lying. It could be reaching support, as it's obviously over sold, the 50MA is starting to curl up, and it's sitting on the high it made in May, plus, 2000 seem's like a nice round number. It could start to move up, if China starts importing all our natural products that we won't be needing, like, TREE's, for when the Obama healthcare death squad's finish off us Boomer's, there's going to be an unbelieveable housing glut, so the housing market will be dead meat for decade's. Besides, the Government can boost the economy by cutting down all our forest's, and export them to China, and then they can blame the resulting rise in CO2 on the equipment mowing down the tree's, and make ton's of money off Cap and Trade tax's.

The $NASI summation index has just barely started to drop, this thing has a tendency to start to trend on a weekly time frame. It's been diverging against the highs the NasDog's have been making, since May.

This thing yields 16%, and moves almost nit for nat with the XLI, IE, you could use the XLI to hedge against it. Personaly, I won't get interested until it comes down to some where close to that 50 MA, around 9 bucks, just a thought.

I kind of laughed my ass off this morning, I ran the "Grab Hold Of Your Nuts" scan, to see if any body had a decent day yesterday, and two stocks showed up in the Russell 1000, TWX, and STZ, hahahahaha, I guess yesterday gave a reason for a lot of people to pile into Happy Hour! STZ actually doesn't look to bad, hhmmmmm, I could use it to hedge my booze bill each year, that is, if I actually used any of the stuff.

Wishful Thinking

Udder Dan Da nice move down today, it was kind of a melancholy day for me. At first light this morning, my thermometer on the front porch, was 19, SIGH! This is to early for this stuff, my biggest tree in the front yard blew up, by this afternoon it had gone from yellow and red, to brown.
It just kind of remined me, that when we get into the FALL season, things can FALL, a lot faster than you think. Who knows, by tomorrow, all the leaves may have FALLEN off, leaving a few hanger's on, yelling and screaming to the bitter end, until eventual, they ALL FALL!!

I couldn't help myself, I took a picture of the Q's, they look ALMOST exactly like the SPY (NATURALLY!!), with some subtle differences. The circle convergences with the 50% retracement in the Q's, and I REALLY like the fact it is sitting on top of that high shelf from August, plus the intermediate trend line, across the lows from July and August, comes in right at that 40.06 "AREA", as well. Meaning, I'd probably take a long shot at the Q's, rather than the SPY.
I don't subscribe to them, but I imagine that Bob Pretcher and the EWI's are slobbering all over themselves, as it probably confirms to them that the Wave 3, of 3, of 3, of 3, etc etc, is now under way, OR, the Wave "C" down, that most Elliott waver's are subscribing to, is in motion. I don't QUITE subscribe to it, YET, as I don't think the Government is going to give up that easily. HELL, after throwing 11 or 12 TTTTTTRRRILLION, at their friends and the housing market, I imagine the FED still has a couple of lousy trillion left, to throw at the market, that they can charge US, interest on, the ROACH's!!!!

2:10pm:

WELL, THAT WAS CERTAINLY INTERESTING!!!!!! I waned to put my OWN chart up here, because the scaling is correct on it, unlike the cheapo charts. The daily chart at the top gives a better view of the BIG GREEN LINE, the main trend line, and the congestion we have in the area we are coming up on. We will run into THE BIG GREEN LINE, plus the 50dma, plus the intermediate trend line coming in off the July and August lows, plus the 38% retracement area, plus the RSI5 and the STOCH will hit over sold levels, blah blah blah, there's a lot of support in that area in the circle.

If you remember, we had a big sell off on the first day of September, as well, a lot of GOOD that did us!!!

Anyway, our friends Goldman Sachs raised their estimate of the payroll report to a 2 handle, which didn't help the day much. I would imagine, if it come's in with some kind of 1 handle, "THEY", take us higher before the open tomorrow.

I only put that five minute chart up there, because, well, I LIKE IT!!!!!!!!!!

I stopped out on my little roach SRZ, after taking partials and moving to a break even stop. I'll still be keeping my eye on it.

6:00am:
You know, I always did like, GREEN LINES! Every thing says DOWN on this thing, which means, NATURALLY, we probably get the YUCKO senario, ROACH's! Never underestimate the power of my tax money (it has to be my tax money, as the Retail's have virtually dissappeared). Anyway, until we break the main trend line from the March lows, the trend is UP. My first interest in shorting this thing won't come until we make a solid lower low, like breaking last friday's low, but that one is pretty weak, I'd like to see us first break the September or August lows, AND THEN, I'd start sitting up in my chair, on a RETEST of those lows. On the weekly chart, we have to go all the way down to the July lows, before we can find our first lower low. The problem with that, is we have huge support at 95, which is basically the break out point for the bull shit July rally. If we did some thing like that, and then started rallying again, a possibility of a 2T comes into play, which would be REALLY COOL!! But, that's a ways down the road.

Futures are weak this morning, down about 1/2%, the weekly claims came in much higher than expected at -551K, the key report will be the ISM at 10am ET, 54 is "expected". You know, the "expected" number for the payroll report tomorrow, is about -175K, I wish some one would explain to me, about how we could get only a -175K number, when I know for a fact, that over the last month the weeklies have been averaging over -500K?????

New Quarter and new Month

For the start of the new month, I thought I'd run the "DEFAULT" scan on the MSW, this scan comes up with longer term trades, and it take's a lot for it to generate a signal, and as such, it doesn't generate signals very often, which is why I run the swing trade, or 7 day moves scans, most of the time. For instance, it came up with NO new signals on the daily ETF scan, which is typical.
It came up with 3 new buys and 8 new shorts on the weekly ETF scan. Other than the VDE, I have no interest on the buy side, the other two new buys are those low volume ETF's, and VDE is marginal. On the short side, NUCL probably is a short, as we try to shut down Iran's nuclear ambitions. I find both the shorts on IWN and IVV very doable, actually, ALL of them are!

The Russell 1000 weekly scan came up with 2 new buys and 8 new shorts. Of the two buys at the top, I would "consider" PENN, but to be honest, I like BYD a lot better, I don't like DTV at all. XOM is kind of typical of the short setups, I also like ALE, FFIV, HNZ, and FXH, CMC is one of my favorite trading stocks, so it's out. AAPL, hhmmmm, AAPL to me is only a "trading" short, it's to fricking over loved and over owned, which of course mean's it's a short, hahahahaha, but it's just to dicey for me to take a shot at it.

The Russell 1000 daily scan came up with ZERO, ZILCH, NADA, ENDSVILLE new buys, IE, the MSW don't like the short term. I do consider TDS, ITG, MTG and PLT possible short candidates.

End of Quarter

I don't EVEN, remember, the last time I watched this, aaaaaaaahhhhhh, PERSON, but Teresa Lo posted this monlogue, http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1280002650 , and I can only imagine that her message is, DID CRAMER CALL THE MARKET TOP LAST NIGHT????

The Russell 1000 stocks sitting close to their high of the quarter.

The Russell 1000 stocks sittting close to their low for the quarter.

For you fixed incomer's who like the "relative" saftey of an ETF, without the volatility of an individual stock or bond, here's a list of the highest yielder's in the ETF Universe. Throw out the short index's on that list, like PSQ and SEF, and of course, do your own due diligence to determine if these yields are for real.

Here's the most under valued peices of junk in the Russell 1000, on a P/E basis.

And here's the absolutely most over valued peices of shit in the Russell 1000, on a P/E basis.

The SPY is still fighting the bearish engulfing, BOF bar from last wednesday, FED day. There's a clear bearish divergence in the TSV (time segmented volume) from that day, as it made a lower high while the SPY made a new rally high, before collasping. IF, we made a lower high yesterday, and IF, we break the low made on friday, that will make for a NEW DOWN TREND. Also, IF, we break last friday's low, we also break the major trend line going back to the March low, none of which is probably to awe inspiring. Volume was not very great, BUT, I circled the high volume days we've had on the DOWN days, the five biggest volume bars this month have all been down days, the only two UP volume days that broke the 20 dma were the two up days, just before the first top, of that obvious double top.

I just can't see that our friends in Da Government, through their conduits on Wall Street, will actually allow the market to do what it should be doing, trading at all time low's, but HEY, you just never know! Maybe people are taking money off the table ahead of earnings, as they are starting to think that a TTM P/E of 184 really IS totally ludicrous, and that forward projections are great, BUT THEY DON'T MEAN DIDDLY FRICKING SQUAT!!!!

Wad ever.

DBA is one of only two sectors showing positive money flow the last week, udder dan da bonds of course. I don't know what to think of this, it broke that down trend line, THE WRONG WAY, GOING DOWN, but the 50dma is above the 200, the MACD and STOCH are on a buy, hmmmm, I don't know what to think about it (I said that already, didn't I??). I'd have to see how it sets up, one thing looks obvious, if it can get above 25.50, it's probably going to see 25.51 pretty fricking quick.

The other positive sector, IYZ, had a huge volume day today, for it, any way. Both the RSI5 and STOCH have been diverging against the rising price, although the STOCH is not close to over bought, another one I don't know what to think of it. Either they made a mighty effort to break to new highs, AND FAILED, in which case it's going to get crushed, or they're building up to continue moving higher. Since I already have that spread trade in Mr. "T", I won't be screwing around with it any way, to say the least.

OUCH, I was looking at bonds, in the form of TLT, and even it had a reversal day, with TSV turning down on it. I'm glad I'm sitting it out a couple of days. Good luck to you.

BreakPoint Trades has a list of trade ideas, with some terriffic looking charts, http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID369857 . LONG: KSS, CLF, and EVEN BETTER, IMPO, are the SHORTS: MA, COST, COF, TXN, and you could probably add those two reversals in those healthcare stocks I mentioned yesterday, CI and UNH. The problem with the healthcare stocks, of course, is that if the Democrat's decide to try and save their relection chances next year, and dump the health care fiasco, these things will explode, so I'd be careful with them.

Premarket futures are up because the ADP employment report came in much worse than expected at -254,000, and the final second quarter GDP came in at -.07%, it all make's perfect sense to me.

OUCHEY!!!

Ouchey Ca Droneey, one uuuuuugilly reversal! My usual MO is to manage my open positions the first half hour, and wait for what ever economic reports come out at 10am ET, before looking at new positions. Those were some horrible traps in CI and UNH, as they both gapped higher, then tried to climb a little higher, before getting crushed after the worse than expected consumer confidence number this morning (I have NO idea why they think the consumer would be feeling all warm and fuzzy???!!!)http://finviz.com/ . Of course, those two have NOTHING to do with the CC numbers, it was just a rotten trap setup by "THEM", whom ever "THEY" are.

UPS did the same thing, and it just confirms my feelings about how Woolie this market is, strong setup's like these "SHOULD" not have been such a miserable failure, of course SHOULD'A, WOULD'A, COULD'A, don't get it, it DIDN'T'A.

ANYWAY, I've had a decent month, and actually a decent week, thanks in no small part to Mr. "MO", I took a big chunk off just under 18, I always take it under whole numbers. My plan is to chill out the next couple of days, do some research, manage my current open positions, and start anew when the new month comes. By the way, I'm not done with Mr. "MO" yet, I'm "hoping", to pick it back up at lower levels some time. SRZ still has me intrigued, as it's holding up much better than the udder healthcare stocks, I'll be trying to counter day trade that one with hedges.

Anyway, chill out dude's and dudet's.

Telechart Scans

WOW, in running my Telechart scans this morning, I found some REALLY, interesting, looking charts. It's to bad the markets are ready to implode, they are so stinking over bought, or these would all be good for the road.
UPS is typical, it showed up on the "End of Fall" scan described on the right side. It filled that big gap on friday, it put on an inside day yesterday, it's over sold, and it's tested the 20dma the last two days, and held. The negative is the volume, I would have liked to see a volume surge yesterday. But the good part about this setup, is you know EXACTLY where your stop is, under that 20dma, or friday's low. Other charts showing a similar setup include WMT, WPO, LEN, DHI, DWA. UNH and CI also showed up, I should have showed the CI chart, it's tested 28 the last two days, which is a high shelf from late July and early August, and the low from early September, a really nice looking setup (IE, nice looking, TO ME, is a well defined R/R point, IE, THE STOP!).

ITRI showed up on a little scan I have, that doesn't produce very many candidates, as it doesn't show up very often, but it produces nice looking charts. The scan is basically the same as the "End of Fall" scan, accept the stock has to take out the previous days low, and then close HIGHER than the previous close, usually producing an outside day at the end of a fall.

ITRI is a classic, they opened UNDER yesterday's close, then took out yesterday's low, IE, they got the shorts just piling in like crazy, then, SOME HOW, the stock magically started to turn around, putting on an outside day, and getting those same shorts killing each other to try and cover their ass. The other positive is it has held that rising 20dma two days in a row, which also is the area of the previous highs from June, plus this is a focus stock of the ChangeWave bunch. The negative is the volume, I would have wanted to see a little more panic by the shorts, but at least you know where your stop is. "Similar" looking charts include DLTR, BYD, LIFE, FLR, CNW, ZBRA, EXPD, and another home builder, PHM. It's always interesting when a group in the same sector start showing up in the same scans, in this case the home builders and healthcare.

This is a terriffic article, http://dailyreckoning.com/a-21st-century-depression/ , mainly because it parrot's my views just about exactly, hahahahhahaha!!!

Bob McHugh has been warning of a coming crash for the past week, http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/ , I don't subscribe to his letter, so I don't know if he's been getting some Hindenberg Omen's or what, but he's been pretty insistant on it.

SIGH!

5:30pm: I'm thinking of turning the Blog into a travelog, HAH! Actually, I tend to walk quite a bit, ESPECIALLY, after doing some thing like this morning, you know, get out and "walk it off". This is one of my favorite places to walk, Baker Canyon, about five minutes east of town. The leaves are just now starting to turn, you only get a couple of week's of this beauty, and I don't know when I'll be back, as we have an Alaskan headed in tomorrow or wednesday.

I took this shot from the top of the rocks in the prior picture. This is a little canyon that branch's off of Baker Canyon, I'm pretty sure it's called "The little canyon that branch's off of Baker Canyon".

ANYWAY, the whole point of this (there is a POINT), is this, THE MYSTERY FECES!!!!!! I know it's damn well not Moo Cow or horsey cow stuff, and it's not Elk, Elk looks exactly like Deer, accept it's big balls of shit rather than little ones. It's either cougar or bear, most likely bear.

ANYWAY, the point of this, is that the market STINKS!!!!! At ONE point this morning, stocks were UP, as well as the VIX and BONDS, and oil and gold were UP, as well as the DOLLAR!!!! I'm telling ya, this market gives me the Woolies (IIIIIIIYYYYYEEEEEEEE, I hope that wasn't Woolie shit, I'd hate to be attacked by a WILD WOOLIE!!!!).

I took a position in Mr. "MO", to go with my Mr. "T", if I can just find a Larry or a Curly, I'll have a laughable portfolio!! I love dem 7%+ dividends, BUT I AIN'T gonna be seeing it, because I have no intention of holding longer than wednesday. I'm hoping we get a pop with the end of quarter window dressing, and I'm hoping it tries a double top by then (there's a lot of HOPE there, there is, my favorite strategy), around 18.25, for I fully expect the DOW to lose 500, OR MORE, points, on thursday, when it's over!!! Ok, well, maybe 50 points.

To add to my laughable portfolio, I shit canned the options and just took a position is SRZ. I "EXPECT", the same thing as above, I will exit at least half of it, if I can get it to double top, I'm positive on the thing, and I have NO intention of giving any back, unless they gap the shit out of me tomorrow morning. Regardless, I will be out when ever it breaks that lower trend line.

10:30am: I probably shouldn't tell stories like the following, but I figure you already know how stupid I can be, and besides, maybe one person will think twice when they start to do some thing like this.

I'm, like, planning on getting into SRZ, today was the day to do it, it pulled back for three days, had a some what nice little doji friday, opened a penny higher this morning, and took out the highs of friday. You would have picked up like 20 cents already today, taking it over friday's highs.
ANYWAY, I have "REAL" positions, I'm screwing around with, and I miss it. So I get around to looking at it, and what I want to do, is to buy calls in it, EVEN though the stupid thing is practically a call option in and of itself. My "PLAN", was to buy the April 2.50 calls, being bid at .95 and asked at 1.10. The reason for the calls, was that the January 2.50 calls were being bid at 1.00, and also asked at 1.10, waaaaaaa laaaaaaa, I could get almost a free call into April, with any luck, if it went up enough to cover the 1.10 being asked on the Aprils. PLUS, I figure the Obama clan crush's healthcare, the stock close's at 2.49 on the third friday in January, I get the entire premium, with a free call into April, and THEN, before the open on monday, SRZ comes out and say's they are moving their headquarter's to the Caymen Island's, and is declaring a free haven for us boomers, from the Obama healthcare death panel's, and the stock opens some where around $250 a share, wooooooooo hoooooooooo!!!!!!
So what the dumb MF'er does, and also being the cheap MF'er he is, he games the ask by bidding 1.05, without bothering to look at the market depth on it, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! The ask immediately goes to 1.25, hahahaha, the roach's!!!! When I finally decide, that maybe I might want to casually glance at the market depth, there's two offer's on the ask, both of them market makers, so what they've done is trap me on the penalty I have to pay, if I don't complete the contract's during the day, as the order is a day only order!!
I mean, number one, the first red flag was the fact I was still screwing around with the "REAL" positions, number two, I got cheap and gamed the stupid thing for a lousy 5 fricking cents, number three, I usually do a GTC order on every thing (that goes back to number one, I think), and number four, well, you can put a number four in there, I'm tired of counting.

I did think it was kind of funny though, stupid MF'er, SIGH! I'm probably just going to take the penalty box, and tell the stupid stock to go screw itself, although I'm going to game around with it the rest of the day, like dropping my bid under the current bid, as I think that the bids are market maker's as well. I think that, because when I bid at 1.05, with their bid at .95, the bid immediately jumped me to 1.10, get what I'm saying, they are gaming me to try and get me to jack the bid to like 1.15 or so. Wad ever.