Fascinating interview with Jeff Quinto, http://www.greenfaucet.com/more/former-floor-trader-talks-trading-strategy/17305 , I read it a couple of times.
Just for Jollies, I ran the NasDogs through the money stream scan, and then looked at every one of the 100 stock charts. Not surprisingly, the best chart I could find, came out of one of the two stocks seeing the most money flow interest the last week, CHKP. I suppose some one might find it interesting, I don't.
I did see some interesting things though, the Semi's don't look to good at all, that includes INTC and AMAT, and what happened to QCOM, did they warn last week??, they got ripped the last three days.
I know they don't do EXACTLY, the same thing, but I kind of lump them together, FWLT and JOYG are pulling back, FWLT is sitting right on it's 50dma, while FLIR looks like a pretty decent pattern, long. I checked FLR because of these, and it's getting crushed, must be the Obama spending, eeeeeerrrr, STIMULUS, plan, in action.
A lot of the Biotec's are pulling back, like BIIB, GENZ, AMGN, CELG, CEPH, even TEVA, my favorite, GILD, has really been pulling back the last three days, I buy this thing in the 40-41 "area", if I can get it there, it's been ranging from that area to 50, for about the last year.
Besides QCOM, the biggest out flows this week came in STLD, CMCSA, VRTX, and LOGI, hahahahaha, is that thing still a stock?? I guess you can go a long way, just making mice. Because of STLD, I checked AKS and X as well, the whole sector is just getting crushed, is that good for the economy???? Speaking of sectors, I notice EIX, PCG and AEP are all pulling back together, Cap and Trade?? I also notice the bull shit is over in UPS and FDX.
I looked over the weekly charts as well, and there, I did find some that looked fairly decent, just a very few of them were CHKP, XRAY, CTXS, JBHT, YHOO, if it ever gets back over 17.50, HANS, DISH.
Almost none of them showed up in my favorite scans, over on the right, FSLR showed up on the "Grab hold of your nuts" scan, wooo weee, good luck with THAT one!
The futures are up tonight, DOW about 33 points, as I guess they love it, that we lost 10 of our finest this weekend, in that shit hole Afghanistan.
I'm in one of my frequent maniac depressive moods, and what I do in those stages, is doodle or walk, I've walked, with the latest Travelog at the bottom, so I'm doddling. By the way, I recommend reading my Elliott Waver, http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/personalspace.aspx , I believe he's got a pretty good one this weekend, at least, I could understand it, which means just about anyone can.
Anyway, you can leave now, this is going to be long and boring (eeeerrr, more than normal, hahaha), and frankly, it's for me, so unless you want to look at the boring pictures, get some rest and relaxation, for I'm hoping this coming week will be a wing dinger.
I'm an events trader, or, at least I try to be, and not some thing like a news event, but more like, a moment event, as in, this is the MOMENT. My moments, are usually lines, as in, THE BIG GREEN LINE, and I also use a number of other things, but my best moments usually come with simple lines. To get my moment, I have to have an event set up, that get's me sitting up in my chair, and interested, and that event comes with price doing some thing at one of the simple lines. Price has a tendency to do all kinds of weird stuff in between the lines, and one of my big weakness's is to have the patience to wait for it to come around to my line, before doing some thing. My lines are relatively few, as I try to hold them down to trend lines, and support and resistance lines. I use my lines to increase my confidence, in determining when to enter or exit trades, as my lines usually come in at a point where I feel I will know whether I'm right or wrong, at a certain moment, IE, it sets up my R/R, and hopefully I win more money on my right guesses, and cut my loss's short, when price prove's I'm wrong, thus I can guess wrongly more than rightly, and still make money. Every body has their "THING", this is ONE, of mine. One of the things I do, prior to actually making a trade in a "moment" situation, is go back over all relevant information I can get, as to what the stock or index has been doing in prior moment situations, and prepare a fairly detailed plan, before hand, of how I plan on handling myself, AFTER, I enter the trade. Entering the trade is NO PROBLEMO, that's the easy part, as the lines and price action are telling you exactly what's going on (well, mostly), my problem comes after I get in, for I know myself, and I can get pretty emotional when I lay down a large sum of my money in a position, so I like to lay out a plan ahead of time, of every thing I think can go wrong, especially wrong right out of the chute, IE, it goes against you right away, which seems to happen quite a bit, and usually that period is the single most emotional moment of the trade, trying to get in going in your direction. Once you get it going in your direction, it's easy then, as it becomes a management issue, trailing stops, planning ahead for the next moment, IE, like an upcoming support area if you are short, all the typical stuff. By the way, this is one of the reason's I like "systems" so much, like BZ's stuff, as all the emotion is taken out of it, as you have a strict set of rules and parameters to go by. In contrast, taking line trades is NOT an exact science, but it's not rocket science either, which fits me very well.
I'm even getting bored, so on to the moments, I'm using the INDU, but they are all pretty much the same (I'm more interested in the Q's by the way, as they broke their trend line), the first MAIN moment is the March low, naturally, and the reason I'm sitting up in my chair, is because we are just as obviously, at the THIRD main moment during this time frame, the attack on the BIG GREEN LINE. I have a series of moment circles I put on the chart, starting from the left, from 1, jumping to 5, and then 10. I want to add this here, that this whole pattern is one huge bearish rising wedge, so a break of this thing lend's itself to some possible big gains, should it happen.
First off, my personal opinion, is that this run up has been both VERY difficult, and ALSO, fairly EASY, to play. The March low was not KNOWN, as the March low, until quite a ways after it happened, as we only knew it was, "THE MARCH LOW", when Larry Kudlow began calling it thus, and started calling all his viewer's absolute idiots and ass holes if they had not brought it, for every time he mentioned, "THE MARCH LOW", he would tell you about how far the DOW had rallied, off that EXACT bottom, and about how much money he had made, buying that low.
I, of course, was one of those idiot's, because I couldn't buy that low, as I had absolutely ZERO referrence point to buy it off of, all the market was doing, was going DOWN, it had not set up that LOW yet, so I had to wait, until it set some thing up I could half ass recognize.
This started to happen at circle 1, off the first trend line that walked up that late April rally. I'm throwing out the very first trend line just left of that, for during that runup, we never had any thing that I could trade off of, like, some thing as simple as a three day pull back, the only thing you could do, was buy new highs, which is PART of the DIFFICULT thing I talked about. We had a new high in mid March that you could have taken, and made some decent change off of, but starting with the late March high, we kept making marginal new highs, and then pulling back two days, we did that three times, before the big dump day on April 20, and then started walking up the line. Now, you could have brought the new high we made in late April, and made some decent change, but why would you go back for a fourth ass kicking, after getting stopped out doing the same thing three times in a row, earlier???
Now, circle 1 is NOT a trade, I put that there, because it eventually became a moment area. All it was, was the first remotely decent pull back we had, since March, you COULD have taken a short, when it broke that trend line, but it ended up chopping you to death, as it put on two narrow bars in a row, then that big up bar on the 18th (stop out), then came back down and double, triple, and then quadriple bottomed at that circle 1 level, before taking off into the next ass kicking, in the second circle on that nice June 1 bar, when it took out the May highs, and then proceeded to put in that horrible sequence of nine narrow range, whippy flippy fricking days in a row, YUCKO! Now, this led to what ended up being a fairly decent short trade, when it broke down through the trend line on June 15, that is, if you weren't totally fed up with the fricking thing at that point! Besides, I don't consider that trend line to be a legitimate trend line, as there was no REAL pivot point to use for it, off that choppy bottom.
LIKE I SAID, this was NOT easy! Anyway, what happened, was we come down and test circle 1, for WHAT, a SEXTUPLE bottom???, go back up above the 50dma, then come back down for a SEVENTRUPLE bottom???, which set's up a whole shit pile of people in the WackoSphere yelling and screaming about the head and shoulders formation, which if you remember, I said it would probably break it to the upside, off the Tony Oz setup, where you draw the trend line from the top of the head, down through the top of the right shoulder, and either take the short at that point, or buy the break. This was the second main moment event, as it led to the REAL gains to be made, off the July blast off, in circle 5. This brings up some thing I like to see with trend line breaks, I like to see a SOLID bar break of the trend line, hopefully with some volume, IE, I DON'T like to see price start waffling around when it gets to the trend line, as that often sets up a failure. Anyway, this led to another buying opportunity in the GREEN circle, when we broke the June highs, that was actually pretty decent, as we stopped right on it, set up a little doji right under it the next day, and then had the solid up day bar that broke through it the next day. It was easy, that is, if you weren't gun shy from getting your fricking ass kicked, buying the previous half a dozen new highs, hahahahahaha!!!!!!
So we creepy crawl up to the early August highs, then chop around for four days, and have a two day pull back, which I have a circle around, as I have no trend line there, for there was no pivot point to take a line off of. We then head back up into the next ass kicking buy the new highs, in the next circle, where we broke to new highs, and then had five horrible shittly choppy five days in a row, which broke down into the next buying opportunity, the three day pull back at what is circle 8 (not numbered), the second trading day in September. I took that, I think I talked about that, but regardless, eventually it led to the, what, hundredreth??, buy the ass kicking new high set up!!!!! It went up for two little days, and then chopped and shitted for five days in a row, leading into circle 10. This was a short, of the trend line break off the July and September lows, but remember about having a SOLID bar break of the trend line?? If you look close at it, we stopped ON the line, then kind of gapped under it the next day, with a narrow little bar, and then took the shorts out on the next big bar day, IE, it was bull shit.
OK, so, I've done my analysis from the March lows, and I have some conclusions, number one, DO NOT BUY NEW HIGHS, HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Number two, the best buy points have been off the deepest retracement, IE, circle 5. Number 3, you can buy 3 day pull backs, especially off of narrow little bars on the third down day, which I said I would, and I have, IE, I'm long, but not a very big position, IE, either this is the second or third great buying opportunity off the March low, or we are setting up for a great short. My ADD point for this trade, is also the point that will convince me it's a great short, that is, what happen's if we rally back up to the low from a week ago friday.
So, for right now, I'm stopping out if we take out friday's low, I'm going to add if we get a SOLID bar break through the week ago fridays lows, my target is obviously the prior high "area". On a shorting basis, I'm not going to short it, IF, we gap down tomorrow, that would be the gap down line break, which I don't care for, I'd have to wait and see what happens on the first rally attempt. Should I get stopped out, AND, we turn around and rally back over friday's highs, I will get long again. Should we gap UP, or, open flat and go up, and then turn around some time, and take out friday's low, I will try to short that on a SOLID bar break down. If we go up, fail to take out the week ago friday lows, I will take it short with a SOLID bar break of THE BIG GREEN LINE. My preferred senario on a failure in that area, would be a BOF, a break out failure bar, that attempts to take out those highs from a week ago, then turns around intraday, and ends up negative on the day.
The reason I'm extremely interested here, is because this is the FIRST big event area we've had, since the March low, this is that MOMENT. The July low was NOT, as we didn't even know we had a BIG GREEN LINE, until it became obvious that was a substaintial pivot low.
Wad ever, that's my plans, so do with them what you want Goldie.
This is another one of my walking areas. I like this walk, because you walk up a hill into a prevailing southern, or westerly, wind, when you come over the top, it opens into a little canyon next to the road that leads to the microwave tower, in FACT, on the map, it says the name of the canyon is "The Little Canyon that's next to the road that leads to the microwave tower", HONEST! What happens at this time of year, it starts getting extremely cold in the mountains, and the deer start moving down into this canyon, just short of the valley floor. They can't smell you, because of the wind direction, so you catch them off guard. There's only about a half dozen in this picture, last year, a little later, I came over the top, and by the time they all got hopping, bouncing and bolting, I counted just about three dozen of them.
Here's a couple of more that popped up.
All I did, was swing to the right a little, and there's the valley floor, and the town.
I think I figured out what pattern Bob McHugh has been teasing me with, with the emails he keeps sending me, to sign up again. He keeps talking about a pattern that is developing, that when it complete's, will lead to the final devasating Wave C down, to finish the bear market. He said today, we are in the Wave E of it, and when it completes, that will be the final leg up, plus, it's some kind of Wave 5 as well. What it is, is an expanding triangle, with A-B-C-D-E touch points. It is an expanding triangle, no doubt, I just don't think my count is right on it, as you start at the first point, that is the high before the first pull back, which is left of the A. Wad ever, we shall see, what we shall see.
