Sunday Musings

You can listen to an interveiw with Robert McHugh, here, http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html , it's from yesterday. He give's away his time frame for the coming Wave "C" down, it's going to start at 8:11:13AM MT, on November 11, and will last a year, probably ending on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving in 2010, and once the S&P takes out the March low, it will probably go another 50% lower, down to the 300 "area". The only thing that would tell him that he's wrong, would be for the market's to take out the October 07' all time highs. There is a senario in which the S&P will continue the rally to about 1200, with the DOW reaching 12,000, and THEN we get a correction, and this would be the WORST, for rather than eventually taking the March low out, we stop at a higher level, and then muck around for three to five years, YUCKO! I don't really care, as long as we go UP, and DOWN, during that period.

I tried to rank these is order of best worst, at the top, to worst worst, at the bottom, but it's a dead heat. They all have that huge divergence in the MACD, starting from the August top, and the bottom two have a divergence in the RSI5 starting from that August top, and they ALL have a very clear RSI divergence from the September top, to where we are now. Inside of the main divergence, all three of them have a quick little divergence, that occurred from the first top made this month, around the 13th, through the all time top made on wednesday.

The worst thing right now, are the individual candles we made this week, geeze, on the SPY, you could almost classify tuesday AND wednesday as key reversal days, or bearish reversal days, wednesday was DEFINITELY one, then the obnoxious thursday pop, followed by the HORRIBLE bearish engulfing candle on friday. Bearish engulfing bars "ALMOST", "ALWAYS" (those are disclaimers), lead to further weakness (Just like I said "bullish engulfing bars almost always lead to more gains" on thursday, hahahahahahaha, sigh). The problem of course, is the unreal amount of "LIQUIDITY" being pumped into the system, VIA the PPT, hard to say how long they can artificially continue to hold us up.

The RSI5 divergences have called EVERY coming reversal, since the March low, it has NOT failed, it's just a matter of "timing", hahahahaha, sigh, ain't that the key! At the VERY least, we "should" get a quick three to five day pull back, just like we got in late August, mid September, and again in late September into early October. Of course, SOULDA, COULDA AND WOULDA, are not very viable trading systems, although, I do base most of my "systems" on those, along with my favorite, "hope", and especially, "luck".

If you are already short, you are probably going to hold on until the SPY hits the ultimate target of $5 bucks in a few months. In my case, I'm not whole hog short, YET, I have shorts, but they are all hedge's, for the most part. My actual, "PLAN", is to wait until we hit "THE BIG GREEN LINE", which right now comes in around 105, which is about where the 50dma comes in as well. We have done nothing but make higher lows since the March low, and if they stop at the big green line again, it will be another higher low, IF THEY HOLD IT, thus, the trend will still be up up and away. I'm going to worry about my plan when we get to the line, but, I can see a couple of senario's when we get there. The worst one would be, we hit it, and then just blast off again to the upside, which means I have to take it long when we get there. The short senario's would be two reactions, the worst one would be we just blast right through it, that would screw a whole hell of a lot of people, and is probably the most likely. The other one, is we hit it, bounce, try and suck in allllllllllllllllllll that fake money that is supposed to be sitting on the side lines, maybe wallow for a day or two, and then turn around and blast down through it. We are actually waiting on a confirmation of THE LINE, as we only established it off of the July low, so we really need to see a test, just to see if it is for real. IF we reach THE LINE (I didn't mention one of my other worst case senario's, and that would be that we essentially turn around in mid-air, short of the line, AGAIN, and start taking off to the upside), that is going to be one of the most exciting moments we've had in some time, Wooo Hooo, I can't wait.

I'm going to deviate a little here, it still relates to the above, but it relate's to the reversal in the "normal" seasonality plays, that I've been talking about. In case you were wondering, this is OCTOBER, THE, reversal month, according to THE TRADER'S ALMANAC, as I quickly flip through my latest one, which is from 2004. They always talk about the BEST SIX MONTHS, November through April, or May, and they especially like the MACD timing system, that triples the returns. Starting in October, you take the market long, when the MACD signals a buy, that would be a cross to the upside. You then exit in April or May, when it signals a sell. WELP, we got the, "BUY", when it crossed to the upside in mid month, BUT, as shown in the circle above, we are right on the verge, of a cross to the down side. My shorter term STOCH has already triggered a sell signal, moving below the 80 level. I'm tellin Ya, it would be just like mean old Mr. Market, to try and suck in as much side line money as it can, as it gives the "ALL CLEAR" signal heading into November, and then it unbelieveably reverse's, and confound's all the EXPERTS, who just happened to give that ALL CLEAR SIGNAL, and start's another slide down the slope of hope into the depths of hell, with Kramer and Crudlow yelling and screaming, BUY BUY BUY, all the way down.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/

Weekly MSW Swing Trade Update for 10/26/09

I'm doing some thing a little different this week, in addition to the normal swing trade updates, I ran the MSW through the "Default" system, the Default system is like an Ocean Liner, it takes a lot to get it to change signals, and in the case of the weekly signals above, it issue's new signals once or twice a year, at the MAX! I included the complete list of ALL the signals, so you can check out to see what the software thinks of your favorite ETF, if it has a signal on it. The Default system runs the same exact 59 trading systems, to determine new trade signals, as the "7 Day Moves" system does, the difference being in the stops and the time frame, as the 7 Day Move system automatically stops out after, 7 bars.

The MSW has four new signals, all new shorts, they all look fairly decent to me, it wants to short Healthcare, Nuclear, and a couple of International funds, which goes along with the swing trades, further down.

The Daily "Default" system, is more like a weekly swing trade, it only has two new buy signals, and three new shorts, very typical for the "system". The fact that it only has 20 new buys, shorts, confirmed buys and shorts, tell's me the software is not very excited about the market right now, just like some one else I know. It wants to buy the dollar, and I agree, there's to much negative sentiment on it, I know the EWI boys think it's a buy, I don't like the new buy signal on the IDX. It wants to short Canada, which is directly contrary to it's bullish stance on commodities, in the swing trade list below. It hates any thing with the word small cap in it, which I also agree with. On an over all basis, the software is Long, 123 signals, and short 29, so it's still bullish on a longer term time frame.

For new weekly swing trade signals on the 700+ ETF's, it came up with 8 new buys, and 20 new shorts. On the buy side, it loves commodities, the two charts are DBC and XLE, but it also likes DBE, and OLO, and it's consistent, in the sense that it wants to buy GWO, in anticipation of all the global warming it thinks oil will cause. I don't know HOW it knows about Brazil getting the Olympics, but it immediately wants to buy the small caps there, and it must think the Olympic effect will spill over, as it says buy Latin America as well.

The short list all looks pretty good to me, but I put up some thing I like about the software, it has a new short on the small caps, TNA, and is being perfectly consistant by putting on a Confirmed buy on the small cap short fund, TZA. It absolutely, beyond any and all doubt, hate's any thing with International, Asia or Europe in it's name, with new short signals on PDN, DBT, VGK, EWT, VPL, ACWI, IDX, IFAS, EWU and ADRA.

I'm not showing the daily signals, it only has a few of them, none interesting, and also goes along with the idea, that it's not really to certain about the market in the short term.

To cut down on the lists, I'm just going to be doing the Russell 3000 from now on. The weekly signals are above, with a complete list of the remainder of the short list, it came up with 13 new buys, and 77 new shorts, very bearishly inclined. I put the two buys on the charts as a courtesy, I'm not really to wild about any of them. The two short ideas, DOV and GE, are very typical of the entire bunch, they all look pretty decent. Just a note here, I'm actually looking for a LONG, on GE, as I "believe", it "may" find some temporary support, when it hits it's break out level of $15, just my own personal opinion. Another personal note, Tobin Smith at Changewave, on Bull's and Bear's this morning, recommended LZB as a new buy, giving it 30% to the upside in the next few months, it sure looks like a stinking SHORT to me, on the weekly chart! I guess that's what makes a market.

The MSW came up with 25 new buys and 37 new shorts on the daily signals, pretty split. On a total signal basis, it's long 121 stocks and short 197 stocks, only slightly bearish. On the buy side charts at the top, KIRK put on an inside day on friday, and is sitting very close to the two previous lows it made, and I know it's a focus stock of a pretty famous blogger with a lot of followers, MLR may have stopped on a main support line, plus, $10 is about as close to a "whole" number as you can get. LORL and EBAY look pretty typical on the short list, I like a lot more of the short charts, than the long ones. I guess BRCM totally missed on earnings, and helped drag the Semi's and the market down yesterday, SFLY is a short on both the weekly and daily time frames, EGLE kind of put a crimp in my big thesis from thursday night, about the shippers, hahahahaha! Awwww, it's just STOCK specific, yeeeeeaaaa, RIGHT!

On that note, I watched my favorite shipper analyst on Pimm Fox's show last night, "her", favorite's in the dry bulker's are, in order, DSX, NM and GNK, I would say right now, I like the look of NM, I've actually been in, and OUT, of NMM earlier this year, NM "only" yields about 4.7%, while NMM yields 12%, but she likes the funnymentals on NM better. He also had my favorite steel analyst on, his favorite's are AKS and STLD, AKS shows up on a couple of other lists of mine. I guess AKS reports on tuesday, and he say's the "Street" is pricing in a loss, and he "firmly" believes they are going to surprise with a profit, wad ever, I don't advise trying to game news. One of the things he noted was the INCREASE in China imports, as opposed to the perception that China is pulling their horns in. In a sort of confirmation, the Lady shipper analyst had also mentioned the "surprise" increase in the China tonage in September, with an increase of about ten million tons.

Weekly Sector And Industry Money Flows 10/23/09

Tim Knight had a lot of good posts on his site, over the past week, head on over and check them out, http://slopeofhope.com/ .



I did some thing different this week, and ran a Money Stream Surge for the Russell 1000, you may recognize some of the stocks on the screen, as they were some of the big winner's this week. What I did, was look at all the WEEKLY charts of the stocks on the first page, looking for stocks that had a big money inflow surge this past week, and didn't move much, IE, they "could" be getting ready to pop, like a lot of the other stocks on this scan. It just so happened that the stock with the biggest money surge the past week, was exactly what I was looking for, PENN. It's sitting just above it's weekly 50 MA, finished slightly higher on the week, MS has surged higher, and TSV is trying to break above zero, I actually like it some what. Others that show close to this same pattern include PLD, GMT, JOE, SNDK (unbeleivable as it may seem), CVD, UGI, DNR, and D.

Most of the Moola was flowing into commodities this week, led by the DBA and DBC, the Q's and XLK were right in there, naturally, and bonds continued to show some positive inflows. Money is leaving Dodge in the small caps as fast as it can, in the IWM, along with healthcare, XLV, even with the inflows off of the UNH earnings, and consumer staples are out of favor, right now, in the form of the XLP.

In the industry money streams I don't really recognize a lot of the items at the top, PENN must have been a large part of the Gaming Activities, I was surprised to see Trucks, Auto part's and Auto Dealerships getting a lot of action.

The loser's this week were the NorthEast Regional Banks, probably because of the Nor' Easter, in fact, a lot of the Regional Banks show up on this list. Other's showing outflows were the Airlines, Brokers and Biotech.

SIGH!

10:30AM: Despite the over all lousy market action, some individual stocks continue to perform half ass "normal", that is, if you throw out the terrible bull traps that are being sprung on unsuspecting "investors" in the after hours, where they get sucked into buying the pump, and then the "bull's" try and force them to sell it back to them at lower prices the next day.
Anyway, I only bring up YHOO, because, well, I'm "involved" with it, but this was so cool, it's done several typical things since it's earnings report, it came back and filled the gap from the day of it's report, it stopped almost exactly on the 15 min. 200MA (which don't mean diddly squat), but the best part, is that it did the "equal move", in three waves, the first wave down from open to close was 65 cents, then we had the counter rally, and then the second wave down this morning was almost on the nuts, 65 cents. I am back on some hedge's after this latest rally, as it's slowed up right under the low of the first wave down, which is also almost a 50% retracement of the drop this morning.

Just a quick note after the open, ENER is breaking out over the top of a nice triangle, and "could" be good for more. I say this, because as a "disclaimer", I got in inside of that lower triangle, as a little spec play, under $12 bucks, and I have already left Dodge, BUT, since I ALWAYS exit WAY to early, this thing is probably going to DA MOON!!!

I have two questions about Windows 7:

Is it "faster" than my XP?
Is it less of a ram hog than my XP?

Mikey "blew" away earnings, reporting an 18% drop in profits and a 14% drop in revenue's from the year ago period. They closed a year ago after earnings at $21.59, and since they are going to open this morning around $30, the "market" is going to punish them for their declining revenues and earnings by sending the stock almost 50% higher than last year.
Just think, "IF", they can actually perform over the course of the next year, as expected by the "STREET", and increase earnings and revenue by the "expected" 15%, the stock will probably go another 50% higher from where it opens this morning, and all it will do is get back to what it earned last year, when it was considered over valued at $21.59.

Sigh!

Watch List for Thursday 10/22/09

One of the scans I use, is the three, four and five days down in a row scans, USUALLY, for longs, however, I find it useful to scan for shorts with this, but I use a WEEKLY chart, to get a bigger picture of what's going on with the stock. What I'm looking for, is some thing coming off it's highs, with very negative TSV and MS charateristics, and some CLEAR AIR under where it's sitting. The chart is RFMD, which is just about the sister of poor old TQNT, that got crushed today, but as you can see, RFMD has just about clear air back down to about the $2.50 "area". Other's showing very similar charts, include KIRK, EML, ADEF, PMB, BAP, DNDN, BRMM, GE, EQIX, ODFL, SA, X, AKS, ISIL, CNW, and SMSI.

In running this scan, and using the weekly chart's, I came across some thing I've been watching for awhile, as a possible LONG play:

I've been looking for a chance to get into that wild thing, DRYS, and in running the scan, up popped GMR, one of it's sister's, as you can see in the circle, TSV is showing up as very positive, and MS is JUST starting to try and turn up into positive territory, DRYS looks similar, accept it hasn't gone down 4 days in a row. Supporting my, aaaaaaahhhhh, THESIS, is that the Baltic Dry index is currently breaking out to the UPSIDE. Now, if all the bull shiter's are RIGHT, and we are entering a new bull market for the ages, then surely, the shipper's are going to have to go along for the ride. I really like the fact that both GMR and DRYS have based for just about a year now, and are trying to break out over their 50 week moving averages.
Warning: you may want to take some other shipper's, as these two have about the worst funnymentals of the bunch, and could go broke, BUT, I prefer to take some risk, for some big returns if it works out. Hey, I've been broke before, no problemo, I'll just leach off YOU for the rest of my life!!!

Just a side note, but DSX and GNK have much better funnymentals.

We actually had a little continuation of yesterdays selling for a while this morning, coming within 4 cents of filling that gap from 10/13, then the LEI's hit a half hour into the day, coming in better than expected, and that was it, off to the races. Actually, if you are in to this kind of thing, it's actually a decent bar, a bullish engulfing bar, which has led to further gains in the past.

We had a large number of bullish reversal bars, to go right along with the market's "reversal", if you are into buying high, and selling higher, the following have decent TSV and MS charateristics, WCN, VTR, WFMI, IVZ, SBUX, CCE, and EXPD. If you are a slimey bottom fisher like me, the following don't have very good TSV and MS, but they did have bullish reversal bars off of an "over sold" condition, IE, RSI 5 of under 20, C, BAC, AMTD, HTZ, SEIC, HMA, WDR, STLD, UTHR, ORLY, AMR, SHW, DAL, BSX, FLO, and STT.
Good luck.

AMZN beat like crazy, and broke out over $100, TRULY, the single most over valued retailer in history, wad ever.
When I said AMZN is the most over valued retailer, EVER, I'm speaking from a completely biased outlook, as I have always hated the fricking outfit, and the CEO, wad ever. But, when you talk retail, I always compare them to Wally World, WMT, and AMZN is a competitor of Wally. Number one, I have NEVER found ANY THING, on AMZN, other than books, that I couldn't get for less on EBAY. Number two, the Kindle is probably the stupidiest thing I've EVER seen, but that's just my personal opinion, I can't possibly see how buying that thing, paying for the books, the internet feed, and the batteries, can cost you less than dropping by Wally World and picking up the paper back, if you have to have the book. And how long do you think it will LAST? A year??? Wad ever.
Anyway, before the report this afternoon, AMZN's P/E was 61.48, WMT 14.89, forward P/E of 43.06 vs 12.94, P/S of 1.97 VS .24, PEG of 2.90 VS 1.29 (THAT's, way to high), WMT has a dividend of over 2%, AMZN- ZERO, I could go on and on, PLUS, you have to add in the internet charge you get each month for the honor of shopping at AMZN, you have to get it shipped to you VS just dropping by the store and picking it up, and also, you don't get to intermingle with all the REALLY cool people you meet in Wally World (I would have never known that flying saucers really existed if I hadn't have gone to Wally).
Of course, I wouldn't "invest", in Wally either, I only buy him when he hits $40.

Watch List for Thursday 10/21/09

Woooooo Hooooooo, I can't EVEN, remember, the last time I looked at a 60min chart of the index's, hahahahahah, there's been no reason to, as the stupid things do nothing but GO UP!! ANYWAY, I'm wasting my time, and taking ONE look at it, I say wasting my time, because it probably don't stinking matter, with the lousy response to the EBAY earnings, "they", probably take us to Da moon right out of the chute in the morning, to new rally highs, HELL, if EBAY would have just posted a little worst earnings, we'd probably make ALL TIME HIGHS TOMORROW!!!
Ok, I got that over with, where was I, hmmmm, that chart, Ya know, under NORMAL market conditions, this would be really cool. As you can see, we got all kinds of unfilled gaps under us, those are the white horizontal lines, going all the way back to the last bottom on 10/2. Now, we stopped today, almost on the little pivot low from last friday, SO, we "may" have found support, who knows, BUT, if "they" decide to continue down, we have an unfilled gap from 10/13 at 107.51, just begging to be filled (that's of course my wishful thinking, as I live in the good old days, when we used to go back and fill gaps). Now, "BRAD" (hahahaha, stupid me, I just realized who "BRAD" is, hahahaha), was thinking this is a PBS, Pristine buy setup, but, there's to many bars, plus the last wide range bar would negate it anyway. What "I", want to see, is some kind of pivot bottom, like, we go down to the 10/13 gap, or EVEN better, we go down to the next unfilled gap from 10/7 at 105.79. If we are actually going to get a little correction here, what "usually" happens, and that's a big "USUAL", is we do it in three waves, the first wave down to where ever we stop, and then we get the counter rally, that usually goes back up and stops under a previous pivot, like, that low from friday, and then we get the third wave, or the next wave down, that is usually an "equal move" wave, that is, you measure the length of the first wave down, and then when it looks like we are starting wave three down, you can get a target by taking the length of the first wave, and subtracting it from where ever the high ends up being in the counter wave rally. I hope I explained that right. I'll explain it again, IF, we ever get to some point like that.

Peter Worden of Telecharts came out with 12 charts on his list tonight, a whole bunch for him, and all of them are shorts accept one, what happened to LMT, did they get shot down or what??? I wasn't surprised to see "only" 7 bullish reversal bars tonight, well, actually, thinking about it, I AM surprised there was that many, I was actually more surprised to see only 14 bearish reversal bars on the Russell 1000, and I'm even more surprised to learn I'm not interested in them, well, actually, HOG is one, short the shit out of that thing, please!! When I go, short that is, I'm going to short the market, rather than individual stocks. Remember, the market is not going to let you get into a new trend easily, this little dump today looks to easy, I imagine they might gap us lower in the morning, and then take it right to the shorts, like they did today right out of the chute. OR, even worse in my opinion, is they just continue to go down, making you scared to short, as you just KNOW, it's going to reverse on you right away, after you get in. The way I get into that kind of trade, is to reduce my size, it makes it easier on the whip saws.

Like I said (did I say that??), I'm not taking much, but Peter did mention a nice looking little spec play, BQI, it's had a one year consolidation, and just broke out over a series of highs it made, after making a rounded bottom type pattern (hmmmmm, rooouuunnnded bottoms), what you can't see, and I can't show, is it has some decent TSV and MS positives to go with it. Beside's, it's right in my price range, CHEAP, and basically an option in itself.

One of the bearish reversal bars today was HSY, I only bring it up because I brought my Halloween candy tonight, and I buy those packages of M&M peanuts, with the little packages inside it, if the kids don't eat it, I WILL! So, it's on sale, at $2.29 a package, and I look at the weight, and it's 9.34 ounces, now I'm a cheap bastard, and I distinctly remember that last year, the same package was 11.2 ounces, and I got it for $1.99! I bring THAT up, because of the dumb ass Government telling me the PPI and CPI went down, hahahahahaha, yeeeeeeeaaaaaa, RIGHT!!! By the way, I get a lot of kids here, I dress up and pretend to be some old hollow eyed drunk with a two week beard, that looks like he hasn't washed in weeks, hahahahahahahaha, it scares the crap out of them!!!!!!

Probably one of the single most sickening examples of, "THE BULL MARKET IS BACK!!", is this, http://www.businessinsider.com/john-meriwether-is-really-launching-a-third-hedge-fund-2009-10 . HEY, look, if you want to lose your money that badly, just give it to me, I guarantee I'll lose it faster than him!!!!

10/21/09

This is later than the post below, I just wanted to mention, the Semi's gave a great read of the market today, as they just suddenly reversed, one hour after the open, and started selling off pretty hard. This was probably as a result of front running the coming WalMart release, and they sold off, since all the fricking NasDog's make, is TOYS!!!!!!!!
I forgot to mention, and Sysin just reminded me, EBAY missed, well, actually, they BEAT, but it must not have beat the WHISPHER number, as they sold off pretty good after the release. We probably open at all time highs in the morning, ROACH's!!!!!!

2:10pm: The three chart's above represent my three levels of DISGUST today, with the markets. The bottom chart is a five minute of the open, we had the gap down, which was actually worse going into the open, anyway, we do our typical blast off right out of the open. I was "going" to post this earlier, and talk about the fact that I went back and looked, to see how long it's been, since the market set up my favorite pattern out of the open, The Trap Door, that's where we open lower, then continue lower after the open, for three to five bar's, then set up some kind of "take it" bar, like an inside bar. Anyway, the last time was back on August 14, but I was so disgusted, I didn't post it.

The middle chart was another chart I did today, and I was going to mention the possiblility of a bearish reversal bar today, I drew the lines showing the bearish divergence's going on in the indicators, and we had made a higher high on the day, after a lower open, setting the first parameter for a bearish reversal, and all we would need to do, is have a lower close to drive the nail in. I was to disgusted to post it.

The top chart is the final, we had a huge sell off starting at 3:15pm ET, when Wally World came out and said that the holiday shopping season was going to, aaaaaaahhhhhhh, SUCK!!! So we end up with the bearish reversal bar. So I'm short, RIGHT??? NOT!!! I'M TO FRICKING DISGUSTED TO BE SHORT!!!

Watch (Your Butt) List for 10/21/09

Despite the Debbie Downer today, only two index's in the 700+ ETF's have a bearish reversal bar on them today, DYY and XLP, and both marginal at that. Talk about a butt kicking, BCO took me to the wood shed and beat me like the step child I am, stop out city. Such is the horror's of taking long plays in the single most over loved, over bought and over valued market in history, YHOO is going to fix all that though, as even THEY blew away earnings in the after hours, they were working on the prior highs of this consolidation, but have pulled back a little. I'm starting to like their new CEO more and more, Yahoo! apologizes for lap dance at event in Taiwan , she seem's to have all the right, eeeeeerrrr, "stuff".
The two charts are for those bearishly inclined, ICE is kind of interesting, as it had that "continuation" day yesterday, after the big wide bar, and "should" have continued up today, who knows, it took out the prior highs, and closed lower, it "could" go lower, just like CL, a pretty decent looking short. There weren't very many bullish reversal's today, 18, FNF is mildly interesting, MSFT had one, as they get ready to blow out earnings later in the week, I guess. The healthcare stocks I mentioned last night all reacted to the upside today off of UNH's earnings, the shoulda woulda thing, sigh.
Pretty close to a bearish reversal in the markets today, every one's blaming it on the housing data, it makes you wonder if we've changed from climing the wall of worry, and ignoring all the shit data, to sliding down the slope of hope, as we "hope" it gets better. For me to start getting short, I'd want to see the pull back, then a failure at the prior highs on a retest, with some divergences in the indicators or breath charts, OR, a break out failure bar, OR, a break of the BIG GREEN LINE, and then the same type of divergences on a test of that line. Until some thing like that happens, I'm going to get bullish, if I get lucky, and we actually go back and test that line, or have a three to five day pull back, at a minimum. The SPY hasn't even broken the first low pivot we have, from last friday, so we are a long way off from the massive Wave C down, or the breath taking 3rd of 3rd of 3rd of 3rd, that Pretcher's looking for, some times called the "realization" or "recognition" wave, for obvious reasons. It kind of make's me wonder if the euforia over AAPL's earnings last night was the, "top".

I gotta go outside and lick my wounds with the dog, good luck. YHOO continues to move out, it just took out $18, for a couple of seconds.
Geeze, Latin American Markets: Brazilian securities hit as gov't levies new tax , way to go Brazil, text book lesson in how to kill your markets.

Here we go again

Get'em John! October 19, 2009 - The Stock Market Has Never Been This (Intermediate-Term) Overbought

Here we go, "AGAIN", Housing starts flat in September at 590,000 pace , U.S. wholesale inflation down 0.6% in September . What the article kind of fails to mention, is that housing starts have been "FLAT" for FOUR months in a row, and those four months just happen to be the single most important months of the year, for housing anyway. Why do you think the national builder's confidence "unexpectedly" dropped last month?? If all the $8000 credit could do, that expires next month, was hold us at record low levels, what's going to happen to starts over the next six months??? That's of course, if the foreclosures and bankrupcies don't get any worse. I noticed CAT is claiming that they've seen "the bottom", hmmmm, maybe in their over sea's markets.

ANYWAY, the "here we go again", is for the PPI, and also the CPI that was reported earlier. It's been my contention that the greatest depression since the greatest depression, actually started with the sky rocketing cost of oil. The circle waaaaaayy over to the left, is the all time high in the markets, in October of 07', which hit at about $80 oil, which is where we are, aaaaahhhhh, NOW! The crash in oil prices, and much more importantly GAS, prices, into December and January of last year, gave a last gasp of life blood to the struggling consumer, which I believe led directly to the run up from March in the markets. When you look at the chart from last year at this time, as compared to now, they look completely opposite, as I think we have pretty much clear air back up to the $90 level in oil, which equates to about $2.20 in the RBOC. As I mentioned earlier, gas has NOT come down, like it usually does during this period, and we have been holding at around $2.75/GAL here, if we get back over $3 bucks, I can't help but feel the consumer is going to, "unexpectedly", stop dead in their tracks again.

We have a huge congestion area from the $90 level up to $100, actually, all the way up to $110, so we could get lucky, and stop some where in that "area", but even if we just kind of "hold" in that area, with gas prices over 3 bucks, it could be baaaaaaaad (damn sheep) news, for the economy.

Hahahaha, after this wonderful data, the future's kind of meepey weeped down into the open, opening almost flat, and Da Bull's took it to the bear's after the open, trying to drive price's down to a more reasonable valuation level, probably quite a shock to all those inwestor's who brought into the hype last night, as one Apple a quarter, is probably NOT going to keep the Doctor away. Regardless, if Da bull's can drive it down far enough, we probably see all time highs by the close, SIGH!

Watch List Part Two (To, Too, DOCE???)

Supposedly, Finviz is saying that 894 fricking stocks made new 52 week highs today. I ran a screen of which one of those stocks had POSITIVE EPS growth, 271 made the cut, or one third. I ran a screen of how many had a P/S of less than 2, 311 showed up, better. I then ran a screen, of how many had a PEG of less than 1, 42 showed up. I then ran a screen with all three of them, positive EPS, P/S less than two, PEG less than 1, 24 showed up, run it your self to find out who they are, a CLUE: EQR, C or BAC is NOT among them, hahahahahaha!
Anyway, I ran the Russell 3000 through the bullish reversal bar scan, and, the bullish engulfing scan, out of the 345 stocks that showed up, the following stocks came up with positive TSV and MS characteristics, and half ass decent looking charts:
UNTD, DGII, JCOM, CBEY, AREN, GROW, WTS, USAK, NJR, SKY, POWI, SFSF, CRMT, AMSC, DHX, NYT, ROCK, FCX, FAST, RNOW, UNBF, BMY, KSCO, TRK, WSII, AAON, ABMD, ARII, SWS, DHI, COLC, GBX, FLDR, FII, DWSN, RMIX, CSS, ART, LWAY, HCBK, STXS, CENX, DDR, ZION, CVH, WRES, and BOLT, but only because I watched the movie this weekend.

Ok, the 24 in that final list at the top, is:
BEZ, CAAS, CAT, CFK, CNX, COL, CRMT, DEP, DOV, DPM, ECA, ESL, GR, HLF, INT, JOEZ, LINE, MAY, NIHD, and NOVA. I recognize some of those.

Watch List for Tuesday 10/19/09

When I came back down the hill, from my walk, the kids had my truck surrounded, they are as curious as cats, they hardly moved even after I got to the truck. One of these days (like December), their curiosity is going to land them in the Beaver Butcher shop!

You thought I'd have a picture of a cow pissing on a rock, RIGHT, HAH! That's two of the girls trying to share a salt lick, you can tell who was there first, the one on the right, with her ear's pinned down. ANYWAY, since I mentioned PISS and LICK, check out PISS doing LICK IT UP,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyPKZrl7AEA !

Anyway, you may have noticed that I tend to get a litttle, aaaaahhhhh, moody, I actually had to come back because I have open positions, that I should probably keep an eye on. It just pisses me off when the market does stupid shit like it's doing! I actually had a massacre friday, as I dumped every thing that is green in my portfolio, and kept every thing that is red, leaving me with about 11, RED, positions. I do these things to spite the DOC, since all he want's to do, is make me feel bad, http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/10/ten-characteristics-i-see-among.html , plus, it make's me bear down a little more (BEAR DOWN ARIZONA!!!), starting off the week, with every thing in the red.

So, yea yea yea yea, I did a scan, and surprisingly, to me at least, I came up with 71 bullish reversal bars in the Russell 1000. I actually don't like most, if not all of them, other than the one below, BCO, but I found it interesting that the healthcare sector came up with three of them today, CI, CVH and AET, plus UNH had all the parameters accept for taking out friday's lows. Another sector showing up is (excuse me a second while I PUKE, bbbbbbaaaaarrrrrrkkkkkk) REAL ESTATE. The roach's had a couple of reversal bars in that god awful EQR, and O, there's others, but, well, wad ever. Other stocks of interest, are OSIP, SVVS, AFFX, and possibly DRI, but only because of a TSV divergence on this consolidation.

There was only three bearish reversal bars, none worth mentioning.

I like this pattern so much, I'm taking a position in it, BCO, I feel it's kind of "SAFE", hahahaha, sigh! As you can see, it made a pretty cool double bottom, it had a "little" volume increase, the MACD is actually diverging to the upside, both RSI5 and STOCH are trying to make higher lows off the double bottom, and what you can't see here, is that TSV, Time segmented volume, is diverging to the upside in this thing. Also, the low it made in march is only about a dollar lower. If you lose money in this thing, don't go blaming me, I'm taking it because, well, I'm stupid!

I'm showing this because it showed up in the down five days in a row scan, ITRI, obviously, it's getting it's ever loving assssss kicked, BUT, it's a focus stock of that ChangeWave bunch I talk about, and they have a strong buy on it, under 54 bucks, so it may find support there, if all 30,000+ of them start piling into it at that time. It's early right now, but I'll be watching to see what happens WHEN it gets there.

Congratulations to all you AAPL holders, YOU TOTALLY SCREWED THE MARKET FOR THE REST OF US TOMORROW!!!!! Like in case you DIDN'T know, they kicked ass in the earnings, and made new all time highs, although they've pulled back a little after some light guidance, mostly on the margins, they are still going to gap the shit out of us tomorrow, SIGH!!

Peddling as fast as we can

9:00am: We just had one of those interesting, "moments", Bernacke and Geithner were on their bicycles peddling as fast as they could, shoving fake money through GS and JPM, when we took out last week's highs, in the circle, reaching a high of 109.75, vs the high for last week of 109.71. Anyway, the bar immediately turned into a BOF, break out failure, and it LOOKED, like we might pull back, hahahahahahaha, good luck on THAT one, it must have scared the shit out of B and G, so they pumped MORE money in, and we just took that high out, this is about 9:30am, as I've been screwing around here for a half hour.
ANYWAY, I looked through all the gapper's this morning, both up and down, and saw nothing I'm interested in, nothing on my lists was looking interesting, the future's were actually DOWN last night, looking like a possible selling continuation from the last half hour friday, but they TOOK care of THAT, going into the open, and gapped us UP, so, I'M NOT INTERESTED! I'll probably go out to the ranch and watch the cow's piss on the flat rocks, maybe for a few weeks, until this market get's half ass decent looking again.


So I used the time to kind of take a look at some of the "breath" charts, and I have to say, this chart is the one chart, that more than any other, has left me a downer Debbie as far as the bottom in March. It's to bad this cheapo chart won't go back further, for if you look at the cumulative A/D's at prior bear markets, we ALWAYS, made a major divergence at the bottom, IE, price made it's final low, while the cumulative A/D's made a higher low, this did not happen this time, as it made a low, along with the market. To see how this works, just look to the left, as it worked perfectly going into the all time high's in October of 07', as the cumulative A/D's were making a lower high, even as the market was making new all time highs, a warning sign indeed. Anyway, we are week's away from setting up any new divergences at the highs right now, in fact, because the A/D's are higher right now than they were at the all time high's, it's probably saying to keep huffing and puffing on that ballon.

The NASI summation index is typical of all the rest of these things, you can see the major divergence over on the left, that it was making against the top in 07', and in the case of these indicators, they all did the right thing, as they all made a higher low in March, than they made at the low in November, so, they were telling us some thing about the March bottom. I just consider the cumulative breath at the top, more important than these. The NasDog's are actually trying to diverge a little here, hhhmmmmm, although the NYSI below is not.

The thing that has bugged me about the SP 50R, the ratio of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 50dma, is not the divergence they made in March, but it's the fact that here we were, making a new low, in the worst economic conditions since the great depression, and after the March low, within a month, we were sitting up there at the most over bought level's this thing has ever been at, and it's stayed that way, other than the one buying opportunity we got, the June pull back.

The 200R was kind of interesting, as we had the final flush out at the March low, but the thing has been staying at the single most over bought readings it's ever had, for the last eleven weeks, even higher than it was at the all time high's in 07'.

WAD EVER! Good luck out there, I'm not sure if I'll be back the rest of the week, unless for some ungodly reason I screw up, and do some thing stupid, like scanning tonight, and find some thing I LIKE (YUCKO, I hope NOT!).

Weekly MSW Swing Trade Update for 10/19/09

11:00am: I just checked my "GMAIL" inbox, LOL, for those of you who send me Gmails, my apology, I NEVER check this thing, accept once in a long time, like, today. Anyway, a trader sent me a nice little mail, and invited me to join their live chat room. I have no idea if I should post this or not, but it sounds interesting, go to http://www.manictrader.com/Lounge_only.html , then click on live chat, he said some thing about hit 3 times, and then enter your chat name. I may check it out, if I remember.
Hmmmm, I also found out I had over 200 messages that went into the Google spam box, it's nice to know there's a lotta love out there. I really should open up that one from Nigeria, about the huge UN grant I've received, hhhmmmmm, should I, or shouldn't I, hhhmmmm, I'll just do it real quick, here goes,

9:15am: The Ivica real time trading chat room is going to be open to any one all next week, he was trained by my mentor Toni Hansen, if fact, we joined at almost the same time. I've never been in it, so, I may check it out, you access it by going to the site,
http://www.ivicatradingcharts.com/Mentoring.aspx , and clicking on the instructions on how to set up Mirc, and then join the room under /join #tradingprofits .

Sysin pointed out to me, that a much better valuation metric for stocks is the Price/Sales ratio, and for you bullishly inclined individuals, the higher the P/S, the better the valuation is, ESPECIALLY, if they are trading near their 52 week high. You can get the list by going to Finviz, http://finviz.com/ , click on the screener, it's an EXTREMELY complicated screen, but I'll try to walk you through it. Click on descriptive, then Index, then S&P 500, then click on funnymental, eeeeerrrrr, fundamental, click on P/S, and then click on over 2.
Whew, wow, got that done! It comes up with 163 stocks in the S&P with a P/S of over 2. Of those 163, I know that 155 of them are trading "NEAR", their 52 week high. If you don't want to buy the entire 155 of them, you can get a much better valuation metric, by clicking on the valuation bar, and then sort them by P/S, from high to low, the BEST and CHEAPEST and MOST LIKELY to go higher, would be the top ten, led by ISRG with a P/S of 10.57. Possibly an even better choice, would be to sort them by their PEG ratio, and then buy the top ten with the highest PEG, led by EQR at 166, that's right, it's not a TYPO, it's 166, NOT 1.66, truly, one of the best investments you can make, I expect this thing to at least quadruple in the next few days.
For you bear's, you would of course, just reverse the screen, and sort with a P/S and PEG of under 1, there's 175 stocks in the S&P with a P/S of under 1, but only 16 of them have a PEG of less than one, truly a list for imminent bankruptcy, of course, you can only make 100% by shorting them, but hey, I'll take 100% gains in a couple of days any time.


The MSW is not to wild about any of the ETF's, as it's a pretty short list, with 5 new buys and 14 new short candidates. I only put FUD up there because, well, I like Elmer Fud, and FOOD, so it's a natural. It like's oil, but it just absolutely hates bonds, as most of the shorts are in bond funds, wooooo hooooo, as soon as the interest rate's on Treasuries gets to 18%, I'm all in!!! For some strange reason, it's not to fond of the California Munie market, hhmmmmmmm, for the life of me, I can't understand that.

The weekly scan of the Russell 1000 came up with nothing I'm interested in, either long or short. I put WFC up there on the buy side chart, because it sure looks like a SHORT to me, it's a weekly BOF, break out failure bar, wad ever, me and the MSW disagree with each other all the time.

Ditto on the daily scan of the Russell 1000, nothing I'm wild about, although I would say, that with RCL being just about the single most discretionary item in the stock world, other than Harley's and Polaris (if they made missles, I might be interested), it's probably a structural short.

Ditto on the Russell 2000, I'm especially not interested in any thing with the name small cap in it. I put ZOLT up on that chart, because I know what it is, it's a focus stock of the 30,000+ members in the ChangeWave bunch, so if they decided to move in on it again, it could take off in a hurry. I got WNR up there, because I'm a slimey bottom fisher, and that's the only one in the list, that looks slimey. I'm to lazy to short LZB, and I only show POR as a possible short, as it's my personal opinion you should short any thing, with General Electric in it's name.