Weekly Sector And Industry Money Flows

Sooooooooooo, the REALLY, important question, is, if Oregon beats USC, will the doggy BCS jump them over Boise State, which beat Oregon earlier in the season???? There's a lot of precedence for this crap, for if you remember (I'm SURE you do), in 1978 USC went down to Alabama and beat Bear Bryant 28-14, BUT, at the end of the year they had a split national championship, as a lot of EASTERN sport's writer's claimed Bama was the better team at the end of the year, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, yea, rrrriiiiiggghhtttt, ask the Alabama player's, who got their asssss's kicked, who was the better team!

Just as an exercise, I ran all 823 ETF's through the weekly MS surge, and I just naturally assumed that the short ETF's would show up at the top of the list, but bowl me over with a cow pie, look who popped up right at the top of the list, UUP, hahahahahaha, I almost hit the floor I was so shocked!! This is just a classic example of all the mouthing off coming out of Da Street, about the dollar going to ZERO, and you should be short of it, and all the while, "they" are actually piling into it. Geeze, talk about your old "saying one thing, but doing Da Udder", I'm actually starting to think that maybe those slime bag's on Wall Street don't exactly tell the truth, can you imagine that!!! Of course, once you start hearing the yakking yelling screaming talking heads start yakking yelling and screaming about "you just HAVE to buy the dollar", I would highly recommend you think about leaving Dodge as fast as you can!

Not surprisingly, bonds were the only sectors with positive MS, Money Stream, the past week. What does surprise me, is that in looking at the chart of TLT, it's actually exhibiting NEGATIVE TSV and MS properties, it barely finished positive for the week, and is on the verge of a possible Avalanche setup, as it's flagged back up just under that declining 20dma, and the 20dma has crossed DOWN through the 50dma, a sell setup. My goodness, you would have thought, with the market action this week, that bonds would have exploded to the upside, I guess "investors" hated every thing this week.
For Boyd, and anyone else who doesn't know, TSV stands for Time Segmented Volume, and MS stands for Money stream, these are two proprietary indicators developed by the Worden brothers, you can learn about them by going to the site, http://worden.com/ , click on training or support, then click on Knowledge Base in the upper right hand corner, then enter TSV or MS in the search bar.

Out of 239 various industries, only six had positive MS the past week, and they all make perfect sense, for with the possible reappearance of the big bad Bear, people are stocking up on security devices (and guns), and of course they have to go to an Electronic's store to buy them, the market probably caused a lot of heart problems, so Healthcare and Medical popped, and since people don't like to watch their portfolio's get crushed, they went to movie theaters, or stayed home and combed their hair. It all makes perfect sense! The worst industries are on the right side.

I ran the Russell 1000 through the MS surge screen, just to see if I liked any thing that was getting some positive money flow the past week, and to be honest, I don't really like any of them, but ATK looks interesting. It's been in a four month base, with a drawn out bull flag, TSV and MS had a huge surge the last week, with not that big a pop in the stock, if it can climb over that down trend line, it "could", grind higher. Other's that look a little interesting include RGC and ACV. What was more surprising to me, was that some of the big gainers, like AKAM, didn't have that much support from TSV and MS.

Watch List for 10/30/09

6:45pm: Since I was mouthing off below, I decided to show a REAL bottom, the 02' to 03' bottom, where we actually made POSITIVE divergences on the TSV and MS, not to mention, the REAL ones, which are the A/D's, the advance/decline lines. ANYWAY, I thought I'd mention my greatest fear, that since we've had a runup VERY SIMILAR to the 03' pop, I'm afraid that we may go into a long, drawn out, sloooooooow grind downwards, SIGH, like we had starting off in 04', in the circle! Of course, there's always HOPE (Woooooo Hooooo, my favorite STRATEGY!!), we may just go right down and break the March lows, now, THAT WOULD BE COOL!!!!
Just a side note, but, I'm watching Options Action on CNBC, it's probably just me, but why is it, that the trader's they have on this show, AND, Fast Money, remind of of some kind of MAFIOSA TYPES???????

5:40pm: FreeCharts.com has a new scary (they didn't intend it that way, they just picked the wrong day) Halloween release, of their free charts, check out the video, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GjF_APTo8c .

By the way, I'm ignoring what happened in the markets today, I'll have my usual weekend posts, you know of course that the GDP report was completely BULL SHIT, it was all Obama and Pelosi spending, and the reaction today to the consumer spending confirmed that, Da Street can spread the BS for so long about alllllllll the maaaaaaaavelous earnings beats, ON THE BOTTOM LINE, BUT, eventually, the dumb ass consumer is going to HAVE to start spending. Of course, I could be wrong, but the whole strategy by all these companies may be to just keep cutting cost's long enough, IE, laying people off, until EVENTUALLY, no one in the country is working, UDDER DAN WALL STREET, and they figure that Mom and Pop will get SO BORED, sitting around the house staring at each other, that they will HAVE to go shopping for some of the shit these outfit's produce, that they don't NEED, that they don't produce here of course, WAD EVER.
Actually, I got so bored being locked up in the, eeeeerrrrr, "office", I had to get out, besides, I needed, "stuff" (which you can tell, I'm enjoying right now, hahahaha), and I decided to try and take a walk. I pulled into my "area", and managed to gun the truck enough to get to a flat spot to park, walked, came back, and then backed down the hill to get out, and fell into just enough of a hole, that I couldn't get the stinking thing out of the snow, it don't take much when you don't have four wheel drive, hahahahahahahaha! Anyway, it was only about four miles to our service station, to get help, sigh!
I "think" the markets finished DOWN today, I'm not quite sure. Here's a Quiz for you, guess this pattern, http://twitpic.com/nkorm ! You know, I heard some body on one of the after hours talking head shows, saying some thing like, well, at least is was petty low volume today!!!!?????? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, if that ain't the biggest crock I've ever heard, it sure looks like the biggest volume we've had in quite a while, sigh!! Wad Ever, GET DOWN LIKE A CLOWN, BITCH!!!! Just a quick side note, but do you notice the HUGE divergence in the TSV on that chart, between the September high, and the October high! You notice how it made a POSITIVE divergence, between the August high and the September high! Hey, it don't mean diddly squat, RIGHT, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

SINCE I'M ON A ROLL, this is 6:00pm, SIGH, the really sad part about this thing, is that we have a LOOOOOOONGGGG way to go, to get that chart configuration above, into a BUYING senario. Numbero Uno, we have to make a quote, "BOTTOM", first, where ever that may end up being. THEN, we have to rally, then make what ever LOWER HIGH we are going to make (AND WE WILL MAKE A "LOWER HIGH", I can almost warrantee it), THEN, go back DOWN, and make a LOWER LOW, and then HOPEFULLY, make a HIGHER TSV at the next low, in order to set up a POSITIVE divergence! And then, Waaaaaaa Laaaaaa, we might actually set up a REAL BOTTOM, rather than the FAKE one we had in March, where we had NO POSITIVE divergences in either the TSV, OR, the traditional A/D's, HELL, we didn't even have any of those divergences at the bottom in JULY for crying out loud, SIGH!! Double SIGH, some body wake me up, when we set up some kind of LASTING bottom down the road here.
By Da way, the BIG NasDogs, the COMPX, not the Q's, broke the October lows today, to go along with their brethern the small caps, or IWM, who broke it with a vengenace on Wednesday. This is all REALLY good stuff of course, IT'S THE BUYING OPPORTUNITY OF A STINKING LIFE TIME!!!!! Sigh, it times like this that I wished I wasn't such a stinking slimey bottom fisher, I get the impression, some how, that BOTTOM FISHING ain't quite gonna get it right now! WAD EVER!

I ran the Russell 1000 through the scan, with the bullish reversal parameters, plus, I looked at each chart, there were 187 of them, for stocks that showed a divergence in their TSV and MS indicators during the pull back, IE, even though they pulled back, they were still getting positive money flows, and they had half ass decent looking charts. The chart of PFE above, is typical, the others include TXT, CAG, ACM, PFE, PEP, JWA, AWK, THI, MO, CMS, CXW, MHP, HRL, ACF, RJF.

I ran the opposite scan, looking for short candidates, mainly stocks that had very negative TSV and MS, and finished DOWN on the day, with half ass decent looking charts, in my opinion, there's no better short candidate down the road, than a stock that can't get their ass in gear, on a huge up day like today. PCLN above, is typical of the bunch (please short this thing, god I hate it, although I like Captain Kirk), other's include GRMN (god, I hate this peice of junk more than PCLN), LZ, TWTC, ITG.

I may be watching my old friend LVS tomorrow, but, "PROBABLY", not to get long in. It reported after hours, and is up big, but looking at a chart of them, and where they are in the after hours, they may get a climatic sell type of pattern tomorrow, IF, they can't get over the 50dma, which is about 16.50. ON DA UDDER HAND, if they break over $17, they could get a monster move higher. Their LOSS WIDENED, they may have to borrow more money, they gave a shit forecast, AND they executed the entire board and corporate officer's, at least, those of them who didn't commit suicide before they could get to them, AND THEY ARE UP!!! It could be a FUN stock tomorrow, wooooo hoooooo!

10/29/09

2:20pm: I don't have much opinion on this, the daily candle is a zippo, nada, volume was right about the 50dma, less than the prior days, we went up to that area I talked about earlier, on the 15min. chart, wallowed, broke up, came back to test it, and closed with a green bar with high volume, we "probably" continue higher tomorrow.

I put the IWM in the middle there, it's on the verge of doing an MA array "Bow Tie", where the faster MA's move down to cross through the longer term MA, "usually", indicative of a trend change.

"They" are blaming the big up day on the better than expected GDP, but actually, we didn't start to really move up until we got that report about the new US-China trade pact, or agreements, IE, we agreed to buy all their shit, and in exchange, they agreed to bury us in the end.

9:00am: Every thing "looks" good, the A/D's, TRIN, blah blah blah, but don't ask me why, but it FEEL's funny, like, heavy. The volume has just tailed off all the way up on this bear flag, we've been stuggling to get over that gap fill we did yesterday (I have no idea why, it don't mean diddly squat to me after we filled it), the white line just above the candle, I could see us flag on up to the circled area, which is a little low from yesterday, and the area of a decent short term down trend line, just my guess.

7:00am: Hmmmmmm, yea yea yea yea, GDP beat the concensus, 3.5%, and yea yea yea yea, futures are UP about 1%, DOW about 80+ points, but, I DON'T LIKE IT! The bounce looks pretty meek on that 15 minute chart of the ES. Personally, I "WANT", to see a sell the news after the open, with a TEST of "THE BIG YELLOW LINE", and of course I want to see it hold, this would be a CONFIRMATION of support at that level.
We are now into the last two days of the month, the first two days of the next month, "TRADING SYSTEM", where you buy heading into the last two days of the current month, and sell the second day of the next month, AND, we are heading into the "BEST SIX MONTHS OF THE YEAR", which starts in November. With the GDP "beat", I expect Da Street to be parading out their yelling screaming yakking analyst heads, to start pumping Mom and Pop, that they absolutely HAVE to get into the market now, it's their last chance, before we blow up into May! I know that stinking drunken slob POP may sucker for it, but I hope MOM show's her common sense, and quietly put's all their cash in the cookie jar.
David Malpass kind of shocked me this morning, on Bloomberg radio, he's been pretty bullish, but he's now looking for ZERO, to 1% growth in the GDP, for the fourth quarter, which would be a CONTRACTION, from this quarter, Hmmmmmmmm.
Good luck out there.

10/27/09 (Now the Watch List for 10/28/09)

I just had to post this, WMS, a CLASSIC example of a BOF, a "break out failure" bar. It makes a new high for the rally period, yesterday (why does that Beatle song pop up in my head), then closes under the low of the prior day, and today, well, it, aaaahhhhhh, well, it's a pretty good example of what happens when they do that, it's some times referred to as a, aaahh, WARNING!

6:30pm: I was over at "The Fly's" place tonight, his link is on the right side bar, looking around, seeing what he's looking at, you know, RESEARCH! He's struggling with the shit market, but he ran some screens off his PPT, to see what's popping up, and the stocks above popped up on a TECHNICAL basis, with a couple of them showing up on udder parameters. ANYWAY, I'm looking at them on a weekly chart, and I see what bug's me maaann, about this market, right away. I mean, I don't doubt they are just WONDERFUL companies, and are probably going to Da Moon, BUT, right now, they are all running right into weekly area's of "resistance", this, of course, after big runs. Now, you, "COULD", take them here, and hope for the best (HOPE is a large part of my trading "PLAN"), or, you could wait. What they all have in common, are cool little, "possible", cup and handle formations. What they are doing, is hitting the "right side of the cup", of the formation, and need a rest, and pull back, to set up the "HANDLE". And they all have prior area's of support, over to the left, that would make for a cool area for them to find support, and complete the "handle", and start back up.

I'll put them in a "minder" list, and come back and take a look, if we ever get a pull back in this stoopid market.

I totally freaked out InterActive Brokers tonight, and took a little "SPEC" position in ELON, just before the after hours closed, don't ask me why, I don't have the stinking foggiest idea why! But it was fun, jacking around with them on the 88 cent spread, hahahahaha!

Stocks with the biggest change in short interest in the first half of October: http://bit.ly/4cAt7K

2:00pm: BAC has the same EXACT pattern as AMAT, below, accept, it held that $15.40 low from August, it took out the low from yesterday, and closed green on the day, IE, a bullish reversal day, it had some decent volume on it as well. Hmmmmmm.

OUCHEY PINCHEY CADRONEY, under 12.50 and AMAT could see a pretty quick move down to around the $11 "area".

1:30pm: We had a power failure right when I posted that chart above, 4 hrs ago, it's fricking snowing here, ROACH! Anyway, it's starting to look like we may hit the "BIG GREEN LINE", right at the same time as completing a gap fill from 10/7 at 105.79, that could provide some double support in that area.
I'm adding another senario, to the ones I laid out, what, this weekend?? I'm now looking for "THE BIG YELLOW LINE", hahahaha, screw the green one! I actually like this senario, the line is a pretty solid mid-term type support line, if we stop on it, we still maintain a series of higher lows. But what I really like, is we take out the big green line first, this probably trigger's all type's of program sells, which may cause retail's to bail as well, then Goldman suck's in as many shorts as they can, before turning us up at the big yellow line. Adding to support in this area, is an unfilled gap from 10/5 at 104.05. It's probably a way's off before we even get close to doing any thing like this, you know, probably not until tomorrow morning.

Is there a correlation between the XLE being up 1.3% today, and the XLY, consumer discretionaries, being down 1.4%??? NAW, the XLY is down because of the "UNEXPECTED", piss poor attitude, being put forth by consumer's, as reflected by the lousy consumer sentiment report this morning. Come on pepople, get your fricking ACT TOGETHER, DA STREET was completely surprised by your lousy attitude, and why shouldn't they be, as every thing is peachey keen back on Wall Street!

Oh yea, if you are having a hard time understanding me, it's because my tongue is wrapped in heavy bandages, as it's totally raw after licking my wounds from AKS all day!

"UNEXPECTED", Indeed! http://bit.ly/3Ryxyj

Welp, AKS beat, UPDATE - AK Steel reports 3rd-quarter profit, beats Street , and it's up in the premarket, whether I get out with a profit or not depends on the market gods, that article says that a 1 cent profit was expected, that's NOT the information I had, they were supposed to report a loss, wad ever, they beat by 5 or 6 cents.
Just for the record, the steel analyst I like, AND I DON'T LIKE ANY ANALYST, hahahha, and I mentioned on friday night, as making the beat call, was Marc Parr, his first name may be Mark, with KeyBank. Nice call guy, you continue to stay at, or very near, the top of my VERY SHORT list, of reliable analyst.

Watch List for Tuesday 10/26/09

AAAANNNNNDDDD, IT'S GONE!!!!! Hahahaha, http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/222624 .

We have a little Dow Theory NON Confirmation in the works, with the DOW just recently making new highs, and the transports failing to confirm that high. I actully looked at the IYT, because I thought it may have broken "THE BIG GREEN LINE", but it didn't, it actually looks like it may find some support here, after the slaughter last week, some of the rails had inside days today, like CSX, KSU, UNP, BNI and NSC. Wad ever, I'm actually surprised that the transports are NOT trading at ALL TIME HIGHS, for with all the love for the emerging markets, you would think the trannies would be busier than hell, shipping all those Csco $600 router's, to all those people that make a dollar a day, so they can use their internet, that they can't afford, to buy allllll our products online, that they can't afford.

Rail Traffic down YOY, http://bit.ly/3ToMVb .

A couple of notes, in fact, speaking of NOTES, bonds got shell lacked today, very unusual to see bonds go down with a market drop like this. There was a few comments after the close, about not to worry, as the volume was low, low, LOW!!! It didn't look stinking low to me, at 242 million shares for the SPY, well above it's 50dma, and goes along with just about the same volume on the drop on friday, again, very unusal to see high volume days on a friday and monday. 1070 HAD been talked about a LOT, as the make or break number for the S&P, well, we closed lower than that, but it don't mean diddly squat to me right now, the only number's I'm interested in, are 1050, the break of the big green line, and 1019.95, the October low in the S&P.

Some of the more interesting bearish reversal bars today, on the ETF's, were XLY, IYR, DBE, some of the even more interesting BULLISH reversal bars on ETF's, SRS, QID and DRV.

There were some bullish reversal stocks in the Russell 1000, HOW EVER, I'm not to interested until I see this pull back play out a little more, SWY, CBT, GIS.

There were 62 bearish reversals, which look a LOT more interesting, AAPL, PDCO, WBC, PCP, CSL, ROST, STZ, KO, WEC, LSTR, WAG, TMO, IPI, CVC, IDC, MHP, COL, NTAP, XRAY, oh, hell, short'em ALL!!

The list is starting to pile up, there were 77 stocks in the Russell 1000 that were down 5 days in a row at the close today.

10/26/09

Speaking of BAC (below), it, "may", find a little support here, as it's sitting on the low from early August at 15.40, and the lower edge of a kind of expanding triangle. HOWEVER, if this thing can't hold that 15.40 level, it has a huge clear air pocket, or VOID, back down to it's prior break out point of about 13.50. Under THAT, and it actually has more clear air down to the low in July of about 11.80, BUT, there's a huge amount of congestion in that last area, and will probably chop around a lot.

10:00am: What kind of stupid fricking head line is this, Bulls are losing their way ?? Every yakking yelling screaming talking head BS analyst I've heard the past few weeks, has been saying they are "hoping" for a pull back, so they can get in, or add more, WELL, HERE'S YOUR STINKING CHANCE!!! The Bull's are taking it to Da Bears, as they try to drive stocks down to a more reasonable valuation level, taking out the low of the last two weeks, finally filling that gap from 10/13 (we actually took out the low of that day), with financials, mainly BAC, leading the valuation charge lower. BAC took off south right out of the gate, completely at odds with the BS rally the market had after the open, and was a great "tell".
I took a speculative leap call in GE when it hit $15, hahahahha, it's rapidly turning into a PUKE-culative position, hey, the stinking thing has been down eight days in a row, it's due for some kind of dead cat bounce, like, another ten bucks lower!
AKS has been acting worse (or BETTER, depending on how you look at it), than a Dot Com tech stock, all over the board ahead of earnings, I could have made my whole month by taking it out of the chute this morning, as I had an order in for some January 19 calls, but it took off higher, and I refused to chase it, and sat their and watched it go higher, and higher, and HIGHER, and I puked, and turned my attention to the hedges in my BAC position, for if it would get under $15, I pay for a free bee into January on the OTM calls, close enough, so I took them off. So, I'm also working on AMAT, watching ENER, GE, GLW, DRYS, and I FORGET about the order in AKS, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! One of my typical dumb shit moves, sigh, some times I really hate that voice on TradeStation, the one that comes out of the blue, and scares the shit out of me, when it says "ORDER FILLED"!
Hey, if nothing else, I'm getting some entertainment today.