Weekly MSW Swing Trade Update for 11/16/09

The weekly scan of the 800+ ETF's only came up with 11 long idea's and 9 short's, I think the lack of idea's is a result of it having blown itself out the last couple of weeks, there's just not that many ETF's left to come up with a signal on. I hope it's right on that short of the TMF, if the yield on Treasuries ever get's back to 18% my "investing" life will be over, as that will be all I'll own. Of course, will my luck, Da Government will go broke at the same time.

The weekly scan of the Russell 3000 came up with 29 new long idea's and 34 short idea's, very split. I have to do some research on HW to find out what's wrong with that outfit, and if at 4 bucks, it is a long term play or not.

The daily scan of the Russell 3000 came up with 25 LONG idea's and only 8 shorts, the MSW seem's pretty bullish in the short term, stopid software! I only put TASR on that chart at the top, because it reminds me of how fickle investor's can be, a few year's ago you couldn't open up a blog, or turn on one of the TV pumper shows, without seeing some one yelling and screaming about this out fit. It's funny, but I don't think the funnymental's have changed on it at all, it was a peice of junk then, and it's still a peice of junk! I put the chart of TAP on there in conjunction with TASR, for with Joe six pack being laid off for two years, I imagine he sit's there watching TV all day, drinking beer and tasering himself once in a while to stay awake.

Weekly Sector And Industry Money Flows

Wow, I can't believe the Consumer sectors showed up right at the top of the Money Flow list, "inwestor's" are truly crazy people, I must say. The horrible consumer number on friday morning CERTAINLY supports that thesis. The fact that the AGG and BND funds are in the upper half of the list, while TLT is in the bottom half, doesn't explain any thing to me. I use the TLT for my bond PROXY, and like I've been mentioning in some of the daily updates, the market is REALLY screwey, as it (the MARKET) goes up, AND, the TLT goes UP, like, FRIDAY MORNING!!! Now, supporting my thoughts, is that the Interest Rate FUTURES, go DOWN at the same time, so, it's not like TLT is NOT working, there's just some thing, aaaaahhhhh, GOING ON!! Both the MARKETS, and the TLT, finished higher on the week.

With the IWM right down at the bottom of the list, it just supports my idea of buying the TZA and the SPY or Q's, as small caps are sucking the big one right now, I think that some body is seeing higher interest rates down the road, which is not good for the little guys, nor is the lousy dollar, as it cost's them more to sit in their one man business room, importing every thing from Taiwan, to try and sell it at a profit on EBAY.

Shipping is right up toward the TOP of the Money Flow Industry list this week, as the Baltic Dry index continues to rise (after I take a shower, I ALWAYS, DRYS myself off). Meat Products is right there, followed by Cigs and Tobacco, and Gaming Activities, as Mom and Pop sit there eating their cheapo pork products, and smoking up a storm while playing online video games, wondering if they'll ever get a job again. I'm really surprised to see some of the airline industries showing up, FORD continues to be the ONLY thing holding the Major Auto Manufacturers up, I have NO idea why Home Improvement stores showed up, I guess the people that paid $500,000 for a one bedroom, one bathroom house in PrunePickerVille (some times called CaliPornia), must have given up on trying to sell it at a huge loss, and decided to add a KITCHEN to it, so they could eat cheapo pork products, while smoking and playing video games.

Leader's on the OUT FLOW list this week include Heavy construction, Water Utilities, and General Contractors, right down at the bottom of the Money Flow list for this week, this is the Democratic SPENDING plan in action, which of course, fits right in with Long Term Care Facilities, that is sandwiched in between them. The Regional Banks continue to show up in this bunch, Auto Dealerships (Now, why would THAT surprise me), Farm Products showing up on this list DID surprise me, I guess we don't need food. Of course, a by product of Farm Products, is COW PIES, which, is not that great a FOOD product, but they do make a HELL of a smoke!

Watch List for 11/13/09

The bottom is the FIRST page of a list of possible SHORTS in the Russell 1000, the chart is of BCR, but, they all look "pretty much" the same, IE, there's a few in there that are not any good, go through the list and check the charts out yourself, and make your own decision. This is a SHORT term idea only, based on follow through the next couple of days.

The top chart is the SPY, I only have it up there to show the relationship to the lower chart, the MAIN difference, is that TSV and MS flow have been diverging to the DOWN side since August and September respectively, in the SPY, the chart of BCR, at the bottom. still has positive TSV and MS flows. I "could" see the SPY going back down and testing that Big Yellow line.
If you don't feel comfortable SHORTING stocks, try buying the TZA, the small cap 3X bear fund, the small caps have been LEADING the other index's to the downside, in the form of the IWM, so, if we are going to CONTINUE down for awhile, TZA should lead.

This is just a short term idea of course, who knows,"THEY", could send us blasting to Da Moon tomorrow, for all I know.

If, for some ungodly reason, we do go down and test that yellow line, I will be looking for a setup, to get long into the end of the year.

For you endless pollyana bulls, Bespoke has a list of the best performing stocks since October, http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/11/best-performing-stocks-since-3909-and-10907.html .

11/12/09

2:00pm: Weird, weird stuff man, we had a little woosh down with about 20 minutes to go, that took the DOW down over 110 points, but the weird part is, I'm looking at the internals, and BONDS are DOWN, with the market, in the form of the TLT, AND, even more weird man, was that INTEREST rates were down. I thought that was impossible????? I guess, obviouly, IT"S NOT!

That Trading the Odds site I mentioned last night, that I got from Sysin, pretty much hit the nail on the head last night! What we have here, is the INFAMOUS Island Reversal, or, EVEN WORSE, the ABANDONED BABY, I hate that one even worse, because it just breaks my heart to see that baby sitting there, all by itself!

You could say this is a double top, but, we actually got over the previous highs first, so, in theory, it's not really a double top, and true double top would be like the IWM made a couple of weeks ago. Wow, is that IWM the weak sister or what? Where'd all the RISK players go??

I have no idea how far this "pull back" goes, I suppose the old "BIG GREEN LINE" would be the first target, then I'd start looking at a trend line off of some of the other bottoms, like the old, big yellow line. Wad ever, I haven't really looked yet.

9:50AM: This is VERY, preliminary, BUT, we've had an equal move this morning, so we may get the second leg UP, with the third leg DOWN, yet to come. The move down in the green circle yesterday was $1.20, and we hit it almost on the button this morning, from the high to the recent low. The "indicators", gave a bearish divergence signal yesterday, from the high on tuesday, to the high yesterday.

7:00am MT: SIGH! I was doing all right on my all in futures bet, but we've been climbing since the premarket opened, and it appear's I'll be broke by the open! Oh well, such is life, luckily, I only have three more days before I can stand in line at Wally World, to get my food stamps, http://bit.ly/410vOE .
I was going to take out a second on my house, to refund my account, like the Chinese Investors are doing, AGAIN (haven't we heard that story before, like, about a half dozen times??), but I may not have to, as luckily, my DRYS is surging in the premarket, hahahahaha, wooooo hooooo, save my butt DRYS!!!
As I am wont to do at times like this, when my position is basically set in stone, at least, until the stopid market decides where it's going to go, I spend some time on other sites, this morning I've spent a couple of hours over at Bill Luby's site, brushing up on my VIX principles, very interesting, http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/ . One of the worst thing's that happens to me, when I do a lot of reading, is I find out unfortunate aspects of my personality, this morning I found out I have a tendency to ANCHOR, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases . This is where you get a preconceived notion of the value of some thing, like in the case of AMZN my notion is that it's worth about ONE STINKING BUCK, so, you refuse to accept the fact that it can be going higher, and miss out on an "investing" opportunity. Luckily, I have realized I do some thing like this, so I've found a way to work around, ME, by just ignoring the item, IE, I never bother with it, and just search for udder items, that appeal to my positive ANCHOR vega.

I read (red, wred??) the AMAT conference call this morning, Applied Materials, Inc. F4Q09 (Qtr End 10/25/09) Earnings Call Transcript , now, this outfit is ONE of the very few I have a simgeon of respect for (ARETHA ME!), I really like the CEO, and they are one of the single most important outfits around, for their forecast's just about spell it out for the Semi industry. This is probably nit picking, but, this just floor's me, on the bottom paragraph on page five the CFO said "When we say operating basis remember going forward that we’re not going to include stock ops in expenses so you don’t have to adjust for that."!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I mean, how many stinking years have "investors" been bitching about the fact that these outfits CHEAT, by not reporting stock options as an expense, and here's one of the few outfits I THOUGHT, I respected, and they have no qualms at all, about coming right out, and saying, YEA, WE CHEAT, SO WHAT!!!! SIGH.

Watch List for 11/12/09

Thanks to Sysin for the heads up, Trading the Odds, http://www.tradingtheodds.com/ , reports that since 1990, when ever the S&P futures has traded higher 8 days in a ROW, they have always, ALWAYS, opened lower, and CLOSED LOWER, the next day. I am currently ALL IN, SHORT, the futures, hahahahahahaha (the reason being, of course, is that records are made to be broken, and if I'm all in, WE WILL CERTAINLY SET A NEW RECORD IN THE MORNING, HAHAHAHAHA!!!). I'm adding this site to the links.

Do NOT read this, this is my own personal notes to refer back to at a later date. The above chart is ONE, of many, reason's that I think the 1200 level in the S&P 500 will provide enormous resistance, and maybe, the eventual top in the current rally. In both the 1999 to 2001, and 2006 to the 2008 periods, 1200 was in the "area" of the NECKLINE, of a convoluted head and shoulders topping formation during both periods, and former neck lines "usually" act as resistance once the retest begins. But MORE important, to me at least, is that I know it's hard for shorter term "investors" to imagine this, but the great majority of "investors", IE, RETAIL's, never sell. What we have in the two circles, IS MY GENERATION, the BOOMER's, and they got snookered into buying into this bull shit during the three years in the left circle, lived through five years, until we got BACK to the 1200 level again in 2006, AND THEN, got sucked into believing that ANOTHER bull market was under way, and those people held on, PLUS, a whole NEW bunch got suckered in, from 06' to 08', and are currently under water with their former brethern from 2000, so there's approximately FIVE YEAR's worth, of suckers, that have been trapped in this thing, in those circles. AND YOU KNOW WHAT! I THINK WE'VE HAD ENOUGH!!! I think, that IF we ever get back close to that level, those people are going to say, SCREW IT, and swear off the stinking fricking markets, FOR EVER!! I mean, it makes perfect sense to me, as we are at, THAT AGE, where we don't need this shit, and would probably like to PROTECT, what ever we have left.
This is just my personal opinion of course, but I really believe a LOT of people are done with the market, and it's going to be up to the next generation of SUCKERS, to carry the torch.

OK, enough of THAT, I looked at all 3000 charts in the Russell 3000, and this is the best I could come up with, as far as longs (ok, maybe I looked through a hundred of them). I'm only showing longs tonight, because I'm tired, of showing nothing but stinking SHORTS, there's probably a hundred great looking short charts, BUT I AIN'T TALKING ABOUT THEM ANY MORE!

CPWR is about the biggest piece of junk company EVER, but, the pattern might be interesting. It's been basing (It ALWAYS base's by the way, hahahaha), it had the big pump after earnings, then the DUMP, now it's back, the last three days have been a type of Morningstar formation, or Queen-King-Queen candles, plus, NOT shown, is it's getting some positive TSV and MS flows working for it. The candle today is a bullish reversal, where the low took out the prior two days, and then closed it higher, with a long tailed doji, and a green top. HEY, ENOUGH STINKING DESCRIPTIONS, hahaha, either buy it or don't, frankly, I don't give a damn. The other positive of course, is that with HPQ buying that absolute piece of junk COMS, for a huge premium, maybe Best Buy will cough it up for this thing (you neveeeeeer know). Oh, by the way, that reminds me, buy BRCD, it's probably the next to go, geeze, it's a lot better than COMS.

On Da Udder Hand (my best Greenman and Uncle Ben impersonation), FRX has always been a decent outfit. It has almost the same pattern as the piece of junk above, it's hanging by it's finger nails just above the 50dma, and, "COULD", go back to the 30.50 "area".

OK, MOST OF YOU CAN LEAVE, THE STUFF BELOW, IS FOR US FIXED INCOMER'S!

I've talked about DPO before, it yields around 16%, right NOW, it's been around a while, and what I'm doing, is watching this thing, for the FUTURE. It bottomed around six bucks in March, so it's doubled, and they paid the dividend, even at six. My problem, is it's run by IQIA advisors, I never heard of them, PLUS, I never hear of DPO from ANY WHERE or ANY ONE! What's bothering me right now, is, why is it not following the DOW?? I imagine, it's because of the dividend, it keep's falling back each time they pay out, each month, I hope that's the only reason.

I bring it up, because it looks lower to me, and I'm debating whether to start partialing in, if it goes down and tests that 50dma, which has been acting as support, on the way up. Or, maybe, just forget about it, until, THE BIG ONE COMES, when we break the March lows.
Anyway, this is some thing I'm keeping my one good eye on.

On the complete UDDER hand, PIM has been around a long time, it yields around 10%, it dropped to about 3.50 during the bust last year, but prior to that, back to the 1980's, it NEVER got below five bucks. It's NOT an appreciation stock, IE, you won't make any money thinking it's going to Da Moon, but, it might be some where to park your money, while you wait on, THE BIG ONE!

I bring it up, because it showed up on three screens tonight, it has a bullish reversal candle, it "tested" the 50dma, and rebounded, at a prior "area" of support. The MACD is not good, it's on a sell, but, it could be some thing to "partial" into, if your into that kind of stuff.

Just an idea. I'm looking pretty seriously at it, for "cash" I have sitting around doing nothing, ALTHOUGH, I do think the dollar is close to going up, but that's another story.

Trader Mark has an article about the CEO of EMR saying he's taking his company out of the US, http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/11/emerson-electric-emr-ceo-washington-is.html , it's not the article so much, but Mark's comments about the state of manufacturing in this country, and how much we depend on the "service economy", that got my interest. It reminded me about how much I was ragging, a couple of year's ago, on all the ballyhoo around the fact that the "service economy" was expanding, and creating much needed Yobs, and I remember my favorite comment was, yea, we're creating jobs to "service" our debt! Sigh, I got tired of talking about it, BUT, it just reminds me about how much nothing has changed.

EOD 11/11/09

2:45pm MT: Be still my beating heart, hahahaha, my AMAT jumped almost to $14 after the earnings release, as they beat across all parameters, I thought I was going to get LUCKY (my favorite strategy), but, SIGH, they immediately followed that up with words like "lay offs", "down sizing", "reduced demand", etc etc, they are currently up about 20 stinking cents, sigh, I need them to at least get to the circle in the chart, if I'm to get out with my skin. Oh well, maybe if I repeat the LLoyd's prayer to myself, over and over, it will happen, hahahahahaha http://www.zerohedge.com/article/humorous-yet-spiritual-afternoon-interlude-lloyds-prayer .

Just my PERSONAL opinion, but a pretty SHITTY looking day on the index's, the IWM put in another lousy, RED, wide ranged doji bar, all the other's look exactly like the SPY, they all gapped up, then, and then, AND THEN, did absolutely NOTHING all day. This type of gap up, RED, doji bar, like the DIA, Q's and SPY have on them, set's them up for the Abandoned Baby (poor baby), or Evening Star formation, that is, should we gap down in the morning for some ungodly reason.
I'm surprised the SPY isn't up in the after hours, after the big buy out of 3COMS by HPQ, I thought the market liked M & A activity, wad ever.

9:15am: The five minute chart of the IWM is, aaaaaaaahhhhhh, EXPRESSING itself!!!!!

6:45am: I should point out, that since you can't hear the TONE of the voice in my head, that when I say it's A STINKING BREAK OUT, I'm being SARCASTIC!! 50 cents IS NOT, a stinking break out, all that's going on, is what my point has been (that I've been trying to make, which is keeping me on the side lines until they figure out what they are going to do), and that is, is that there's a HUGE battle going on right now, between the "bulls", and the "BIGGER BULLS", as the "bulls" are the under performing fund managers who are trying to get into this thing on pull backs, and the "BIGGER BULLS" are the Wall Street houses, hedge funds and quants and the like, who are using the big caps, in the form of the DOW, to drive us higher, and try and get "them" chasing it. There's a HUGE divergence going on right now, as the DOW is the only index that has "broken out", the small caps, like the IWM, are sucking the big one, and have ACTUALLY broken the October lows, and some of the other index's need to break out, to "CONFIRM", like, the transports, the mid caps, MDY, etc etc etc.
The OTHER big caps "they" are using, are the NasDogs, the Q's, and the action this morning is REALLY interesting, as the October high was 43.82, yesterday they reached a high of 43.77, and this morning, Da Boyz are doing what they just LOVE to do, and that is, when they hit an area of resistance, their favorite little trick, is to use the premarket, to GAP us over that resistance, as the Q's are currently trading at 43.95. AND WHAT'S REALLY INTERESTING, is the SPY, the October high was 110.31, and CURRENTLY, "they" have us trading at 110.33, HAHAHAHAHA, you see what I'm saying here, this thing could go either way. They could "double top" us here, they could gap and crap it, or, they could just blast us off higher right out of the open, what ever they decide to do, we should know a lot more, by the close today.
The only thing that could lend any credence to a "double top" senario, is the FACT that we are going into this break out in an over brought condition, as we've run up for seven straight days into it, and it would just make sense that we try the break out, and FAIL, then pull back for awhile, rest up, and make another attempt at it, and probably making it through on the next try. That would be my PREFERRED senario, which means, of course, IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN, hahahaha, sigh!
Regardless, I'm not going to worry about NOT chasing a break out, if it's for real, I'll have plenty of time to get into it, as they will undoubtedly come back to test this break out point later, before taking us into that 1200 "area" into the end of the year. The only reason I'm so "active", this morning, is because this is one of those "MOMENTS", a very interesting time indeed.

11/11/09

ELEVEN ELEVEN, whooooo hoooooo, COME AGAIN BABY!!!! HAH, it's a lucky day for "some body", as Da Pumper Brothers are driving us higher in the premarket, as they all covered their mouth's and gasped at once over the, "NEWS", that is being used to drive us higher, Fed talk inspires futures , HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, LIKE, we haven't known Uncle Ben was going to hold interest rates at ZERO, FOR EVER, for, like, THE LAST YEAR!!!!!! Wad Ever, Wall Street just love's it when Da Government mouth's off to it's peon's in the public, about SAVING and repairing their balance sheet's, and then turn's around and hold's the interest rate in your savings account, at ZERO, litteraly forcing you into the clutch's of the devil, in the form of STOCKS. Gold is hitting a new high, the dollar's down, OIL and gas are UP, and the bond market is closed for the day, meaning their's no bond vigilante's to throw a wet blanket on the stock bulls, IT'S ALL GOOD!!

Anyway, that bottom chart is an up to date look at the S&P futures, which is like a look into the , FUTURE, of the regular S&P, and SPY. The high on October 20 was 1099, the white horizontal line, and when I took that picture, about a half hour ago, the futures were trading at 1099.50, IT'S A STINKING BREAK OUT, HAHAHA!!

There's a lot of talk about the next "resistance" area being about 1121, which is the 50% retracement, of the drop from the all time high's in October 07', to the March low. Well, that's fine, but "resistance", usually comes from an area on the left side of the chart, that was prior support, that got broken, and will now act as resistance when we hit that prior support. Well, as I've been talking about since July 18, we have an "Air Pocket", or "VOID", that goes up to about 1200, for we had two weeks in mid October last year, where we just dumped out of support, and left nothing in that area to provide any resistance, should we ever get back to that area (like now).

Now, on a TREND LINE basis, we do have the MAJOR down trend line, that comes from the all time high in October 07', that we will hit at about 1155 (the white circle in the top chart), so that will probably provide the next intermediate resistance area, when we get there (which may be today, hahahaha, sigh, if Uncle Ben could only lower rates to a MINUS level, hell, the DOW would be at 35,000).

I will probably be pretty active today, the shipper's started Mooooooving in the after hours last night, I've been in DRYS, it's up a little, TBSI jumped, GNK is up like a 1.21, DSX had a beautiful reversal bar on it yesterday, etc etc, I'm watching MOT in the premarket, AMAT reports after the bell, I've been getting my aaaaassss kicked in that thing for awhile, but I'm hoping they provide redemption and get me out of the fricking thing tonight, hahaha, sigh!

Anyway, good luck out there today.

The Horror's of LOVE!!!!!

OH MY GOD, THE HUMANITY!!!!!! Yea, yea, yea , yea, I gave "some" UP, by not hanging with this peice of junk a little longer, BUT, like I said, I HAVE NO INTENTION OF FALLING IN LOVE WITH THESE THINGS!!! I surely hope no one "hung" around to long.

Watch List for Wednesday 11/11/09

Since I was unable to find diddly squat for Longs on my Telechart scans, I ran the Russell 3000 through the MSW daily swing trade scan. It came up with 17 long "possibilities", like I said, with the market in the configuration it is right now, I'm NOT interested in LONGS (OR, to be perfectly honest, I'm NOT that wild about shorts either, until we work this thing out one way or da udder)!!
YOU, though, you can do what ever you want.

This is an "OPTION" stock, QTWW, P. Worden mentioned it today, as a LONG, I LIKE IT!

There was a whooooooole bunch, of bearish reversal bars in the Russell 1000 today, I looked for the ones that had negative TSV and MS flows, had broken down through some moving averages, and then flagged back up UNDER those MA's, and look weak, LNC is typical of the bunch, SOME, of the others, are USG, RRC, C, KLAC, HST, CMA, HLX, CPO, XOM, AMGN, and CIEN.

11/10/09

The small caps, the IWM, ended up with an awful looking bar today, it's actually a bearish reversal day as it opened lower, then took out yesterday's high, and then closed lower on the day. The SPY had a narrow little bar, that would have been a bearish reversal bar, but in an incredible stroke of LUCK, "they", managed to close it higher by 2 cents, HAHAHAHAA! A couple of interesting items, the two that finished higher on the day, DIA and QQQQ, had LESS volume than yesterday, while these two, and the SPY is marginal at best, both had MORE volume than yesterday, I have no idea why the small caps, and the BIG caps, are stuggling together. In another developement, of the 800+ ETF's, fully 130 of them had bearish reversal bars today. I only bring that up, because I can go days, with out ONE showing up on the scan. Some of the other notable one's included the transports, IYT, MDY, KBE, XSD, XOP, IBB, XLI (which is REALLY weird, as it's the same thing as the DIA, accept it has some additional BETTER stocks in it), IYM AND UYM, FAS AND UYG, XLP, well, you get the idea, IT WAS A SPLIT DECISION!!

The obvious trade is to SHORT the IWM, and BUY the DIA, for after SEVEN days UP in a ROW, the DIA is NEVER going to have ANOTHER DOWN DAY, HAHAHAHAHA, HAH! Personaly, I will be buying TZA.

There were 32 bullish reversal bars today, almost all of them short, or Ultra short funds.

Wad ever, good luck to you out there.

Kind of interesting morning, after the gap down we rallied into the 8:30am MT period, before we FINALLY started to cough it up. As per BZ's NYAD setup, even as we rallied this morning, the A/D's were never able to get above the ZERO level, meaning we never had any POSITIVE volume during the rally. Right on que, we rolled over when the 10MA, the blue line, crossed down through the green A/D line, and even better, we had a nice doji on the five minute chart just before the break, it was NOT a BOF, for it made a new rally high, BUT, it did NOT close lower, much less, take out the low of the prior bar. None the less, it was a nice "take it" bar.

I'm listening to some thing REALLY interesting this morning, the earnings conference call from TBSI, you can access it here, http://bit.ly/3EGsv7 . It started at 10am ET, and if you look at a five minute chart of TBSI, the stock dumped starting about 4 minutes into the call, as the CEO mentioned the words "LOAN", COVENANTS, DEFAULT, CREDIT FACILITIES, AND MODIFICATIONS, all in the same sentence, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! The ROACH's didn't even give him a chance to finish, dump city!! ANYWAY, it seem's to be no problemo, but they may have to restructure it, or issue more shares, or go into the high yield market, none of which is great, but they are probably not going broke.
ANYWAY, they are a BULK SHIPPER, meaning, they have a very good read on what's going on in the world economies, and the CEO sounded very honest, and he was VERY informative, if you want to skip all the legal stuff, and the earning's number's stuff, his call starts about 13 minutes into the call, I've already listened to it twice, just to make sure I didn't miss some thing the first time through. Just as a quick out line, he's very positive for next year (aren't they ALL!!), BRAZIL is exporting steel like gang busters, he had a lot of comments on CHINA, and AFRICA (for some reason), a couple of things I found pretty interesting, was the term "EXPORT", when he talked about steel and CHINA (I thought they were an IMPORTER), and another thing was that the entire time he used the words "EXPORT" and "STEEL", he never once mentione the word "USA", hmmmmmmm.
Really interesting stuff.

Watch List for 11/10/09

The DOW, in the form of the DIA at the top, broke out to new rally highs today, none of the other index's followed suite, but they are right on the verge of joining the party. Tomorrow will be really important, if the Q's and SPY set up some kind of doji or key reversal bar at the highs, then, well, yea, it could turn into some kind of turn around tuesday type of day. If we are going to continue up, the IWM has the most room to run, although they've flagged right up under the 20-50dma downward cross, which is a sell signal, but the MACD gave a new buy signal on all the index's today, so, I guess the obvious direction is UP.

Personally, after six days up in a row, my personal odd's are on the short side, but I know a lot of people make a LOT of money playing break outs, go for it. I could find nothing on any of my Telechart screens that looked interesting, so I went through each of the DOW stocks. Other than the ones that have broken out, and are flying higher, DIS, at the bottom, looks interesting, it "could" go higher, other's than look half way decent could include MRK, AA, GE, CVX, CAT, and maybe PFE, INTC was a lagger today, it's set up looks a lot like the IWM, KFT was the worse performer, with XOM being the only other one that was actually negative on the day.

Volume was even lower than last week, and in spirit of the "all the same markets", bonds were higher, in the form of the TLT and 30 year Treasuries, very strange markets indeed.

Good luck to you.

Looking at some "funnymentals" on the DOW 30 stocks, since the index hit new 52 week highs today, half have positive EPS growth the past year, 12 have positive EPS growth in the last quarter over quarter report, 4 have positive sales growth in the last quarter over quarter period, BA, MRK, TRV and VZ. One of them had a PEG under 1, CAT.

Jeff Saut has some "decent" stocks in his missive this week, http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm , if the melt up is going to happen into year end. I've been screwing around with two of them, BAC and SCI, I still like GE, although it's, aaahhh, extended, but what isn't.

Watch List for 11/9/09

I could find virtually ZERO bullish bar type reversals in the Russell 1000 that I was interested in. I hate the outfit, BX that is, however, I find the PREVIOUS day's bar very interesting, as it opened higher, and then took out the entire previous week, or previous five days, and then closed higher on the day. This of course, led to fridays big mooooove, you are obviously late to the party now, BUT, big reversal's like that "can" lead to further gains. The problem is the stop, of course, the nearest thing to a true stop on some thing like this would have to be under those lows, down in the 12.50 "area", meaning you reduce your risk like crazy on this thing, meaning, you take a smaller share size.
That's about all I could find for longs, other than the one's I mentioned a few days ago, which are still in play.

APC has a bearish reversal bar on it, it opened lower, tried to take out the previous days highs, and failed, it "could" see further weakness down to about 62.50, it's prior support on that 50dma. The stop is ALWAYS over the prior days highs, or, where ever you feel comfortable. Others showing a similar setup include SWN, ACI, IRF (big one!), and RRC.

UHS has struggled the past week, putting on a wide range doji bar on friday, it's right on the verge of getting a 20-50dma bearish golden cross, the risk is very clear, over the highs of last week, around 58, and "I" would be outta there, the target could be the gap fill area around the 53-52 "area". Hard to say what the healthcare stocks will do tomorrow with the weekend news.

CPO has a convoluted Avalanche setup, bouncing off support for a few days, flagging up to it's 50dma, and failed to get above it, it "could" be good to short, with a target back down at 27.50 support, and a stop over that 50dma.

Wow, when is Yale Hirsch going to update the "Stock Trader's Almanac"?? It's always nice when some one "quantifies" your "feelings", for as I've talked about, it's sure seemed to me the "seasonal" plays have been turned around. Schaeffers http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/ , did a study, in their Monday Morning update, comparing the last five years to the prior 30 years, in terms of six month periods in the "markets". It's obvious that the "worst" time to be "invested" in the markets now, is the September to March time frame, while the "best" time to be "invested", is the March to September period, quite a change from the old reliable November to April-May period. That was, of course, before the internet hit it's hey day, and the invention of more hedge funds than mutual funds, and quants, etc etc etc. As soon as the "GAMING", doesn't work any more, the periods will probably revert to their original studies, IE, rather than "GAME THE SEASONALS", "they", will actually start GAMING the "GAME THE SEASONALS", hahahaha! Wad ever.

BreakPoint Trades http://bit.ly/nvcM , sent out their weekend update tonight, and because they have so many WORLD WIDE members, they did a special look at the various World Stock Markets. You Know, after going over the whole bunch, and there was a BUNCH, it's STUPID! What I mean is, why stinking "INVEST", in Vietnam or some thing, when all those other market's look EXACTLY the same as our markets??? The only difference is the "absolute" return, that is, some of them MOVE higher, more than our markets do, but they also do the reverse, and move MUCH lower than our markets do, when we all go down together, I don't get it, obviously. I'd rather just lose my money here, than lose it to them.

Yo, Rita, you want in on this???

Weekly MSW Swing Trade Update for 11/09/09

EWI, Elliott Wave International, is having their yearly "FREE" (the magic word) week, you can "try" and get into it here, http://www.elliottwave.com/ , I say "TRY", because even I've been having problems trying to get into it, they never told me any thing about it, I found out from some other bloggers. You'll have to sign up for a free account, if you don't have one, then try and figure out how to get into the area where the free week is being done, which is the subscriber's area, they have a new secret password and user name, I'd give it out here, but that would probably, for one thing, be illegal on my part (IE, law suit), also, underhanded, devious, slimey, crooked, etc etc etc, you know, much like Congress passing the single biggest peice of legislation for the last 50 years, over a weekend, WITHOUT READING IT, and against the wish's of a majority of the American people, sigh, wad ever, it's not like it's going to have an effect on my life, my children's life, or my grandchild's life for the next 100 years or wad ever.

ANYWAY, you don't have to go to EWI, since it's free and open to anyone, I can tell you right now what they are saying. EWI has been working this bear market as a FIVE WAVE bear, with the March bottom as Wave 1, and the current rally as Wave 2, some of the other Elliott Waver's, like The Elliott Wave Lives On and BreakPoint Trades, http://bit.ly/nvcM , are calling for an A-B-C bear market, with the March low being the A wave, the current rally being the B wave, and then we get the C wave DOWN, to complete the bear market, I don't know what Robert McHugh's count is, Robert McHugh , I jsut know that in his advertisement's he's been talking bearish for weeks. Wad Ever, it don't stinking matter, they are ALL the same, it's a BEAR MARKET RALLY, and it's just a matter of interpretation as to when the current rally ends, and the confirmation of when the final leg's down get under way.
EWI is banking their whole reputation on THIS BEING THE END, they are throughly convinced the TOP is in, the other two are pretty convinced as well. The whole KEY to this interpretation, is the BEST PART, for they ALL agree, that if we break to NEW HIGHS, IE, over the October highs, THEN, they will have to revise their Wave structures, to reflect a new count.

The weekly chart of the SPY above, is my simpleton little chart, with the "current" counts. I will say right now, that some of the "indicator's" are supporting the possibility that we could be in trouble, as all three of them have been diverging to the down side, against the last October rally, and as I have mentioned, both of the Telechart TSV and MS indicator's have also been diverging, and both the MACD and MACD Histogram signal lines have given a sell signal, as well as the STOCH. EWI, in their current short term update, has a very clean five wave count for the rally the last week, they have a couple of time frames on it, like the 60min and the 240min chart's, but their bottom line is that either Wave 5, the TOP, is in, OR, we could have one last little pop, like the next couple of days, before the final roll over starts, but either way, their mind is made up, IT'S OVER, and the only thing that will change it, is a confirmed break over the October highs.

PERSONAL STRATEGY:
Ok, I'm done, I've had enough of the bull shit above, wad ever, I don't give a damn if the market goes up, or DOWN, all I care about is how can I make money, and what my RISK is going to be, to do THAT, and RIGHT NOW, the RISK is just to high for me to do ANY THING, other than, like I've said over the last couple of weeks, just STAND ASIDE, and see how this plays out. If I thought the market was a peice of junk LAST WEEKEND, the BS rally this week, just made it exponentially WORSE, as the daily chart is just AWFUL! I mean, you COULD say, it looks GOOD, as we rallied every day this week, hahahahaha, but the volume went down every day, other than the miserable gap and crap day on the FOMC day, and all we did was rally up, and STOP, around the September highs. So, in actuality, if we wallow around this week at those September highs, we "COULD", start setting up that Head and Shoulders I talked about earlier in the week, that would be really COOL, for unlike the last H & S in June and July, when I said we'd break it to the UPSIDE, I think we might actually have a possiblity of breaking this one to the down side, which would get me short. As far as trying to get long, welp, that's obvious, to me at least, I'll want to see us break out over the October highs, which right now are only about THREE lousy points away, 110 on the SPY as compared to where we are now, 107. To get LONG, I'd want to see my typical setup, that is, we break out, and then come back to TEST, the break out area, that's the only way I'd do it, ALTHOUGH, I'd hate to think I miss the move to 1200 by NOT getting in, as there's nothing but clear air up to 1200, once we break out over the October highs. That's brings up another really good setup that could occur, and that would be a double top at the October highs, and I'd be looking for some kind of BOF, break out failure bar, to happen at those highs, the best bar would be a key reversal bar, where we open with a gap down, and then take out the October high, and then turn it around, and close either under the prior day's close, or even the prior day's lows, which would also setup a bearish enguling bar.

So, that's what I mean by STANDING ASIDE, I consider the market JUNK right now (technically), BUT, I would consider any of the senario's above, a reason to start sitting up in my chair, and MOOOOOVE! Adding to JUNK, and RISK, is the EVENT RISK we have right now, for, number one, who knows how we are going to react to the crap coming out of Washington. We may react poorly in the futures tonight, or tomorrow morning before the open, which would get the PPT in a fricking panic, like on friday after the pay roll report, when they blasted us up out of the open. Plus, I don't know if you know this, but the AAII Investor sentiment report on friday was horrendous, an EXTREME bearish reading, which is usually a contrary signal, meaning the PPT could use that, plus the DC crap, to try and suck in as many shorts as they can, to give some fire power to some "CONDUIT" (IE, GS, MS, JPM, BAC, etc etc) induced short covering.

Wad ever, I'm just going to continue to trade intraday until the market work's itself out, and work with the small amount of special situation stocks I currently hold, like, GE, hahahahaha, the ROACHEY upgrade by those two "houses" on friday, certainly put me in a dither, as I had a 50% hedge on it, that I couldn't unload until after the open, hahaha, sigh.

The weekly MSW update is just as a "courtesy", the commentary is limited as I don't have to much interest in any of them:

The weekly MSW swing trade's for the ETF's came up with 6 new buys and 16 new shorts, not many signals, but after that blow out last week, there's not that many left to generate a signal on, hahahaha!

The daily ETF hardly came up with any signals, TZA is a mistake, I missed it when I put the short ETF's in a seperate folder, which, speaking of that, I ran the signals through the short ETF's, below, just to take a look:

I'm kind of surprised at the lack of signals, but of course, there's not that many short ETF's, but it's definitely leaning to the bullish side, eeeeeerrrrrr, I guess that's BEARISH, with only a few short signals, one of which is the Euro, which brings up some thing I noticed this week, it generated signals on almost all the Euro ETF's, and what's bad, is that it's kind of split between shorting it or buying it, IE, it's CONFUSED, which tell's me we could have some Dollar volatility coming up.

The MSW came up with a bunch of signals on the Russell 3000 weekly chart scan, it still has an over whelming number of new shorts as compared to new buys, but it did come up with a large number of new buy signals this week. The entire list is above, pick your poison.

In some what of an upset (going along with college football this weekend), it came up with a lot more new buy signals than short signals on the daily Russell 3000 chart scan, the complete list is above.