Send the Kid's out of the room before you view this, IT'S UGLY!

I wanted to wait until the end of the week, before checking out the chart of the T2100, the Advance/Decline line for the NYSE, but it confirms what I said earlier this week, it's making a VERY SLIGHT, divergence, against the new highs that the "markets" made. It's not much, but you know, it made new highs all the way up, EVERY TIME, the "market's", made a new high. I mean, ENRON didn't go to ZERO, until it made that last ONE CENT lower tick, than the previous highs it made.

Anyway, that's nothing, compared to this chart:

The big boys, the Russell 1000, have made a HUGE divergence in the MS, Money Stream indicator, against the last high that the Index made. I mean, I wouldn't EVEN look at this, other than this is the first divergence it's done since the March lows. Now, TSV did a lead in, into the June to July correction, when it made a LOWER HIGH, from the May high into the June high, to give a warning, leading into the June to July correction, but, MS was correct, in the sense that it made a HIGHER HIGH, with the market, which eventually led to higher highs in the markets. Since that time, TSV has chopped around a little, making the one little lower high in the very fast correction in August, but it made higher highs with the market since that time, up until the last high, when it made a very slight lower high, while the markets made a higher high. But MS has just fallen off the map, I mean, THIS CAN'T BE GOOD!!!

Keep in mind, this is the FIRST time it's done this, since the March lows. I don't know what to say about this, other than, YOU, can do what you want, ME, I intend to be, aaaaaahhhhhh, a little careful here.

Weekly Sector And Industry Money Flows

A couple of surprises to me, in the sector money flow's this week, I'm really surprised to see the Q's having a worst flow than the IWM, I mean, the small caps have been sucking the big one on the money flows, and the chart. There's no surprise with GLD and the metals being toward the top of the list, although I am a little surprised at healthcare leading the whole bunch, honestly, I haven't really looked at the individual stocks in that sector this week. I put the chart of the TLT up, because of course, it's one of the money flow leader's, BUT, the money flow indicator at the bottom is negative, TSV has turned down, and the last three days on the chart look pretty marginal, AT BEST. I'm not convinced this thing is going up just yet.

In the industry in flows the past week, drugs were hot, I'm thinking about a position in MRK or PFE myself, other than them, I have no comment on the rest of them.

In contrast, the WORST industry money flows this week REALLY surprised me, mostly in the form of the Toy and GAME outfits, wow, what's going on with that, I mean, with Black Friday coming up, "investor's" are supposed to be piling into these names for the Holiday shopping season, hmmmmmm! Actually, the same idea applies to a couple of industries UNDER that bunch, Department Stores and Sporting Goods stores, I mean, well, this can't be good.

I run the Russell 1000 through the money flow scan each week, not to see who was HOT, I KNOW that, but to see who might be flying under the radar, that is, getting some money flow interest, but not blowing up yet. Of all the names on that list, only FTR has a half ass decent looking chart, ALTHOUGH, I personally can't touch it, as I don't know what it is, and looking at the chart, it doesn't look like it moves much. I probably should have put the chart of the one I REALLY like up, hahahaha, rats, anyway, TIE is showing some decent TSV and MS parameters, and the candle today looks really nice, the problem is that TSV has turned down after a two day pull back, plus, it may have made a LOWER HIGH, from a couple of weeks ago, hmmmmm, I'll be watching it anyway.

Watch List for 11/20/09

I have added Maxed Out Mama, http://maxedoutmama.blogspot.com/ , to the links list, pretty interesting economic, "stuff".

Some short idea's include LTD, BR, SHLD, MO, BAC, SHAW, HRB.

Long idea's include CCO, FDML, VR, GIS, KG.

11/19/09

Wow, that is one beautiful double top BOF bar on GLW yesterday, BOF= Break Out Failure .

You know, I like GLW, it's one of my favorite companies, it's a "stuff" company, it's been around since the Uncivil war, and was a member of the original DOW 30, but I consider it to be a poster child for the ridiculous valuations in the current market. The latest moon shot-pump job came off of it's earnings report, http://bit.ly/QEm4G , every single metric in the report was lower than it was in the same period last year, when it was trading at a "reasonable" $8 bucks, sigh, wad ever, I give up.

The weekly job less claims came in worse than expected, the futures had been dumping, down about 1%, DOW almost 100 points, and after the lousy report Uncle Ben and Tax Cheatin Timmy pumped our tax dollars into Da Boyz on Da Street, and got the "save", with the "market" (hahahahahaha, geeze, what a joke, there is no stinking "market") taking back half the losses. I'm tellin Ya, it's just a stinking MIRACLE what the "market" does some times!!!

Watch out at 10am ET, the LEI's, Leading Economic Indicators, and the Philly Fed come out, they "could", move the "market".

Good luck out there today.

Watch List for 11/19/09

Stocks showing positive TSV and MS configurations are the ones that I'm involved with (currently), DRYS, BAC, GE, AA, stocks showing lousy configurations include BARK BARK!, oops, excuse me, I meant WOOF, LKQX, CYH, UGI, STRA, AAN, MCRS, and dozens of others. There were 84 stocks on my bearish scan, and 30 on my bullish scan, some of those are CHD, BMY, L, EMC, CPB, DHI, EQR, FRX, and udder's.

The chart of the DIA is just for a certain individual I know, nothing more.

11/18/09

I haven't looked at the "INTERNALS" in a while, because, frankly, with the market going up each day it don't stinking matter. But I have to admit, they are REALLY interesting. Now, this don't mean diddly squat, as Da Boyz can use a few select big caps to give the impression that there's some demand in the market, but that $NASI at the bottom is really lousy, it's NEVER very good when the $NASI is making a lower low, while the "markets" are making higher highs. The $NYSI supports this, as it's gone down during the new "highs". The NDXA50, stocks above their 50dma in the NasDog 100, is diverging, BUT, 70% is still healthy, the $NAAD in the middle just goes along with the bottom chart. I don't "trade" off this stuff, BUT, it's some thing to keep in the back of my feeble head.

Along those same lines, this is probably one of the single funniest articles EVER, so, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, http://bit.ly/a3mZS , it's Mendelson and Yamada trying to make a case, that the declining volume since the March low, IS REALLY GOOD!!!!!!! I'm telling Ya, if this ain't the biggest crock of shit, well, it just floors me! There has never been ONE, "EXPERT", EVER, that hasn't said you like to see a volume increase, to confirm a breakout in a market or stock, EVER!!! And now, IT'S REALLY GOOD!! HAHAHAHA, my god, what a typical crock of Wall Sreet bull shit!

To be fair, Louise doesn't really say it's good, just that we may have a NEW level of volume, since fewer people are left that have money to put in the markets. I watched a couple of interviews with Louise earlier this year, and she was very concerned about the declining volume at that point, I guess they both need new customers so badly, they're willing to try and rewrite all the technical analysis books, wad ever.

SURPRISE, HAHAHA!!! The CPI came in hotter than expected, geeeee, with oil more than doubling since the first of the year, I guess our "friends" in the lying fricking Government are running out of ways to hide the "real" cost of living from us seniors on fixed income, luckily Congress cut out the Social Security COL increase for next year, just in time to crush'em!

For some unreal reason, the new housing start's and new building permit's came in WAY below what was expected, now, WHO WOULDA THUNK THAT!!!!!!!!!!

Watch List for 11/18/09

Some idea's off the daily MSW scan of the ETF's.

Weekly swing signals on the Russell 3000.

Some idea's off the daily scan of the Russell 3000.

"T", is setting up the infamous, and very rare, "Head and Shoulder Pads" formation, that's where it has the normal head and shoulders, and then set's up pads on each side of the regular shoulders. The neck line is the same, in this case, $25.

YOU BET YOUR LIFE!

These are the three, "cheapest", priced stocks in the $INDU, cheapest meaning the lowest stock price, NOT, their funnymentals, GE, BAC and AA. On a funnymental basis, GE has the lowest P/E, and, forward P/E, their book/share is 11.03, the PEG is 1.55, and the P/S is 1.05. AA has no TTM P/E (IE, they lost moola), their book/share is 13.58, they have no PEG, but their P/S is .71. The only thing BAC wins in, is Cash/Share, at 17.62, of which, 34 billion (or SO), is my money, the bail out we gave them.

If you "had" to bet your life, on which one would go up the most over the next 2+ years, which one would it be???

Being a chicken shit "hedger", I'd buy the stock, and buy the 2012 puts. Taking the nearest ATM, 2012 puts, the GE $15 strike is going for $3, with a delta of .33, you have to add .98 cents to that, as that's the difference between the put and their price, or it cost you 25%, the BAC $15 put is going for $3.80, with a delta of .32, add .88, and it's going for 29%, the AA $12.50 strike is going for $3.00, with a delta of .31, add 1.11 and it will cost you 30%.

So what I do, is go to the charts, at the top. Starting at the top with GE, it's in a "congestion" zone, it's bouncing between the high and lows from January of this year, "IF", it can get above the high it made nine weeks ago around 17.50, it has a "decent' clear air zone, back up to the low it made in July of 08', at $26. The middle chart is BAC, it's in a HUGE congestion zone, which goes from the low in November of 08', $11 bucks, and the lows from July and October of 08', $18.50, IF, it can get above that, it has decent clear air back to the highs in September of 08', around $38 bucks, it's hard to believe looking at the chart, but that's a 20 point zone. AA is also in a "congestion" zone, but, it's a zone that only goes back to August of this year, when it broke out over an Inverse head and shoulder's, at $12, and if it can get above the highs, from when it failed after beating earnings, at $15, it has a MASSIVE clear air pocket right back up to that little shelf, from August of 08', at $31 bucks.

So, from my perspective, AA is an "easy" double if it can get back over $15, BAC is a double "IF" it can get over this massive congestion that goes up to about $18.50, and GE is a peice of shit, as it has to get over $18 FIRST, and then run's into resistance around $26, but then it "could" go to about $36.

Bottom line, to ME, is that these things ALL have a "chance", to go MUCH higher, if they can clear those "areas", I talked about. Keep in mind, that were I to take a POSITION in these things, by buying those puts, I would be day trading SOLD CALLS and SOLD PUTS against them, all the way up or down, IE, trying to reduce my cost basis as much as I could. That's what I do.
My plan, naturally, would be to take a position in ALL three of them, and "hope" (my favorite strategy, hope, that is), that one of them hit's the double, to make up for the other two just sitting here for the next two years or so. Of course, I would imagine I'd make money on the other two, day trading the puts and calls, like I mentioned, so I would "make" money on all three of them, but that's neither here nor there, just an idea.

Watch List for 11/17/09

If we happen to get a sell the bull shit rally on turn around tuesday tomorrow, you want to short stocks with a crappy candle setup, that have negative TSV and MS flows, IE, WEAK stocks, BAC fit's all those parameters. Other's that look very similar include SUN, WEN, AAN, BK, OSIP, FTO, REG, and MOT. Just out of curiosity, does anyone have any idea of why WEN has been so weak??? I like their burger's better than MCD, although I like Burger King better.

MORN is the only thing I could find, that had a half ass decent setup for a LONG, $49 seem's to be pretty decent support, it has a nice little bullish engulfing bar, and it stopped dead on the 50dma. I like setups like this, because you know where you DON'T want it, that would be if it breaks that 50dma.

GUARANTEED TO LOSE!!!

This is just unbelieveable, I mean, SPIT SPIT!!, I GIVE UP!! I've been working on a little more data on that strategy I briefly touched on this weekend, about buying both the RWM and the IWM, in equal DOLLAR amounts, and rebalancing at various times. It really doesn't seem to matter that much WHEN you rebalance, you can try and time it, or just do it each month, or week, or, do it like when one or the other goes up enough to buy like, X amount of shares in the fund that goes down, IE, the IWM goes up $5000 worth, and the RWM goes down $4500 worth, you rebalance both of them back to the ZERO line, and keep the $500 in your account. Doing this over the life of RWM, which opened on 1/26/07 , if you started with a $200K account, and
brought $100k each of IWM and RWM, and rebalanced at various times over the last, well, almost three years, you would be UP approximately $70,000, or about 10% a year. Check it out for yourself, anyway I'm trying to figure out a call/put selling strategy, based on the monthly and weekly ATR's, to "enhance", the returns.

Anyway, forget that, what freaked me out, was the fact that since the inception of the RWM, BOTH the IWM and RWM are DOWN!!!! That's RIGHT, IT DIDN'T MATTER WHETHER YOU WENT SHORT, OR LONG, YOU LOST MONEY IN BOTH!!!! Stinking fricking Wall Street, I'm telling Ya, IT MAKES ME WANT TO QUIT, PERIOD!!!! I thought it was just related to the IWM, and the small caps, but the exact same situation has happened in the SH and SPY. These are NOT, ULTRA short funds, so they should NOT, go down because of the daily rebalancing in the various Ultra and 3X bear, or BULL, funds. I have no explanation for this, other than the rebalancing in the various index's must cause it, as the SPY, over the last three years, has had "about", 119 companies disappear, and be replaced by other companies. Naturally, S&P always picks the "best" company to replace them, IE, HIGHLY valued, plus they get pumped before they go into the S&P 500, so they naturally bleed red after they calm down. I don't know, maybe some body else has an explanation for this unreal peice of crap.

HAH! I forgot to mention the charts, the BIG YELLOW horizontal line, is the level that RWM and SH OPENED at, when they first opened for business, and the same yellow line, is the level of IWM and SPY when their counter parts opened. RWM is at the top, followed by IWM, then SH and SPY.

Watch List for 11/16/09

7:30pm: ALL RIGHT!! I got my Telechart scans back, for some reason I lost them for a few days, ANYWAY, DELL reports this week, and there's a LOT of confidence in some circles, that I personally know of, that it's going to BEAT! Well, that may be so, but the chart is not saying much bullshitiness stuff, TSV has turned negative, as well as MS, plus, it has a couple of lousy looking candles on it the last two days, it looks like a short. Other's that look a lot like this include MA, AAN, PFE, HUN, GME, KCI, L, CNA, and OI.

I don't why, but I have a wild hair up my ass about HW, I've been thinking about it for a couple of months now, some body mentioned it last week, Soro's brought some of it, it's a decent STUFF outfit, and, it's based in Utah. The TSV and MS on the top chart are not to bad, on a candle basis, the weekly and daily are almost exactly the same, accept the daily has more pull back days in it, than the weekly. The weekly chart is very clear, it's been making a series of higher lows, and has a flat top type of ascending triangle on it (which I didn't draw), but the important thing, is that if it can get back over the high it made in October, it has "clear air" back up to the $8 "area". There's actually not much resistance at $8, and really, if it gets past $10 bucks, it's got $16 bucks right in it's sight's. Am I reading to much into this thing?? The stop is very clear to me, under $4 bucks and I probably won't be hanging around.

Sysin mentioned A nice site, http://www.callpix.com/ , that I added to the link's, you might be able to find a decent little call expiration run for this Friday.


This is an MSW daily chart of TSO, TSO is one of my favorite "trading" stocks, I also like VLO. I bring this up to show how the MSW can get really hot on certain individual stocks, the gains for the last two months have been, starting on the left with the LONG signal, $1.20, .14, 2.26 and 1.24. The first short, that only made .14 cents, came within a day of picking up another dollar, but the "system" automactically stops out after seven days, that's why it's called the "Seven Day Moves" system. I'm kind of surprised that it didn't come up with a new buy signal after friday, it has a "morningstar" formation on it, where it actually gapped down on thursday, then gapped up friday, leaving an "Abandoned Baby" bar. I like it, it looks like it "could" have more gains on the long side.

One note of caution, the weekly chart is really lousy, TSO has been setting up a series of lower highs and lower lows from February, and with the violation of the October low, I, well, I wouldn't be falling in love with it, VLO looks EXACTLY the same.