Weekly Sector, Industry and Russell 1000 Money Flows

The only explanation I have for Health Care leading the money flows, is that with the current dismal state of the finance's in the country, "they", must figure the health care bill doesn't have much of a chance of passing, or if it does, it's going to be greatly watered down from where it is now. Bonds being toward the top of the list didn't surprise me, what DID surprise me, was the price action in TLT, a relatively small move higher this week, plus, it only gapped up a little during the "panic" yesterday, and basically made NO move during the day, very strange stuff, I would have expected to see a little more fear.
The Q's were the only major index with positive money flows last week, and just barely at that. I'm watching some key items on that chart of the Q's, one is the fact that the MS, Money Stream, has been making lower highs, with each consecutive higher high in the Q's, since the Setepember high. It's not some thing to "trade" off of, it's just a warning indicator. One thing I can trade off of, is the TSV cross over's. Once we begin a decline, and establish a SECOND spike point in a lower TSV, you can draw a line down through them, and once the Q's break over that line, it has worked for some very decent gains, since the March lows. It works equally well with a confirmation from a cross of the MS at the same time, although MS can struggle to set up a second confirmation point.

Telecom, drug's or any thing medical, and utilites are showing up in force on the positive Industry money flows, which makes sense as they are defensive plays.

The worst Industry money flows, by FAR, are the regional Investment brokerages, and of course, there's only one TRUE region, and that's on that extremely short street, called Wall Street, and only consist's of GS and MS. DELL probably accounts for most of the poor flows in personal computers, I was really surprised to see the weak flows in Toys and Games, as, obviously, this should be their strongest period of the year, "inwestors" are probably discounting a poor Holiday season. I've heard some "analyst" Yahooing because they think that the sales this year will "only" be about 1% lower than last year, but what they leave out, of course, is that last year was just about the worst year on record, meaning in actuality, this year may be the worst EVER, since it's worst than last year. I'm also EXTREMELY dissappointed to see the poor flows in the Shipping industry, although it doesn't say whether it's the DRY BULK or tankers, anyway, the Baltic Dry Index took a pretty severe drop this past week, hmmmm.

This is a scan of the Russell 1000 sorted by their TSV strength, TSV= Time Segmented Volume. As you can see, the list that shows up at the top, is most of the best performer's in the index, no surprise there, what DID surprise me though, was seeing stodgy old GE show up on the list (and AMD, but of course, I wouldn't touch that dog with a 100' pole held by YOU!). I "think", there's some longer term investor interest in this thing, as they may think they are going to be able to unload some of the worthless peices of their business's holding them back, like, the finance unit (hopefully). Anyway, it's TSV is working inside a nice triangle, which could break EITHER way, although the MS at the bottom is positive, and has kind of broken higher through a flat consolidation. The price chart is worthless at this point, it's made two lower highs since the September high, at this point I'd want to either see it, maybe, double bottom the early November low, or the September low would be even better. Taking it at a higher price would be tough here, it's probably going to struggle if it test's the October high, I'd just prefer to try and bottom fish it, for a longer term trade.

Since I'm a sleazy bottom fisher, I always find the worst performer's more interesting, and Goldman is some thing I'm keeping my one good eye on. The under performance of the financials, or more to the point, their DIVERGENCE with the market's, like the SPY, is the tell of all tell's, as far as the health of the market, for we ain't going NO WHERE, with out the financials going with us. It's just amazing to see BAC as the worst TSV performer in the entire Russell 1000, and even more incredible, is JPM, C and WFC completeing the bottom five, wooooooo weeeeee, pretty amazing stuff, other's would be seeing INTC in that bunch, DELL and YHOO don't surprise me at all.
GS is of course, THE outfit I would consider for a LONG term investment, if I can ever time the thing right. It's the same thing as any of the others, like that Q chart at the top, I'd use a cross of the TSV and MS, to get in at some point. With the gap down friday, they are getting pretty close to the September low, which could be a double bottom "area", but the over all chart is just a mess right now, they'd have to find a bottom first, maybe that September low, who knows, then rally, then come back down, maybe have a capitulation day, by taking the September lows out, and set up some kind of divergences in the indicators, like higher lows, while price made a lower low, some thing like that. I'd want to see a huge volume surge on some kind of capitulation day, they got it with the November low, and that led to some nice gains, unfortunately, they got nothing of the sort on the gap down yesterday, who knows, maybe they get another gap down on monday, and get the capitulation volume.

GOOD BYE DUBAI!!!!

9:00AM MT: It scares me when some thing is that easy, hhahahahahahaha!! I took my profits when we hit that low from three days ago, around 43.77, at the rate it's going, the greedy may try for a gap fill, good luck.

6:30am: Hahahahahaha, geeze, I've seen Da Boyz use some pretty weak excuses for trying to suck some unsuspecting shorts into the market, but this one is pretty close to the top,
Dubai World reverberations , for crying out loud, Tax Cheatin Timmy and Blathering Ben will simply buy the entire $60 billion in debt, with our tax money, let them file for bankruptcy, then we absorb all the losses, like we did with GM and Fiat, eeeerrrr, Chrysler, then we all go on our merry way!!!!!
The thing I find more interesting, is the weakness that GS, JPM, MS, etc etc, have been showing over the past month, while the "markets" continued to rally, OBVIOUSLY, "some" "body", KNEW, about this, and in typical fashion, we are always the last to find out, when it comes time to absorb the losses.
The futures have been kind of wallowing since the premarket open an hour ago, the DOW is down about 200 points, and have been down as much as 225, or about 2%, the S&P has been getting hit harder, down about 2.5%. If this manufactured drop is typical of previous ones, that is, where they used some worthless fricking emerging market crisis to try and shake the longs out, like in China, then we should blast off right after the open. We shall see.
Black Friday has been getting off to a decent start, I've only seen reports of a few shootings in Wally Worlds around the country, much better than previous years, hahahaha!!

7:115am: RATS! Because of the big drop, all the SHORT FUNDS are showing up in the TS hot lists, and crowding out the small caps, for SMALL CAP MAD CAP DAY, the only STOCK showing up on the top 25 list is ZQK. The Ultra short funds are moving big time of course, which is led by the emerging market short, EDZ, up 13%, our small cap short fund, TZA, is up 10%. This is pretty worrisome of course, as it set's them up for some short covering after the open, hmmmmm, what to do, what to do!

Turkey Day Musings

Wishing you and your's a satisfying Turkey day. I'm using this morning to just do some reading and musing, while the bird stew's. I had to crack up, check out the front page on Stockcharts most requested charts, http://stockcharts.com/ , they are all a bunch of foreign stuff I've never seen in my entire life, hahahhaha!

There will be no watch list today, I fully expect another worthless day tomorrow, with the half day schedule. My plan, during periods of low volatility and extremely slow, tight action, is to establish positions for what I expect to be a big move next week. My thought, is that the "EVENT" risk, is to the down side, the EVENTS being black friday and cyber monday. It's obvious that the retail stocks have priced in a complete rebirth of the brainless fricking american consumer, with a return to their spend out the ying yang habits, with money they don't have, so the shock would be if they DON'T! Even if they do, the risk to the upside is minimal compared to a down side draft. I'm using longer term long options, offset with OTM short options, to define my risk.
I added a nice site to the links, Validea.com, http://www.validea.com/home/blog.asp , some nice reads, and idea's there. I actually hate to look at a site like this, as the guy that run's it, John Reese, is a certifiable genius, graduating from MIT and casualy picking up an MBA at Harvard business school, typical of what an idiot like me is up against in the markets.
One link I liked was the interview with David Dreman,
http://bit.ly/7sBkyz , very nice common sense approach as to how to handle the markets right now, and his idea about buying a second home right now, is some thing I'm considering, as he think's it's a given that we get 8-10% inflation down the road, much like the late seventies and early eighties, I may pull all my money out of the markets and cash in on real estate.

Both John Hussmand and Jeff Saut had pretty decent articles the last couple of weeks, their links are on the right. Check out the article by Bill Hester on Hussman's site, Three Observations on Third Quarter Earnings , I found it pretty interesting.

The Disciplined investor has some nice charts up this week, http://bit.ly/4XfhjL .

Have a nice relaxing Holiday weekend, hopefully to rest up for some decent action next week, lator gators.

5:30pm: You know, sigh, this market just gets stupider and stupider, Deere, DE, hit a 52 week high yesterday, off of these maaaaaaaaaavelous earnings, http://bit.ly/7i6EAo , in which, their earnings came in 50% LESS than a year ago, and their sales were 28% LESS than a year ago, and the BEST part, is they are saying that 2010 won't be ANY FRICKING BETTER!!! And all they did, was hit a 52 WEEK HIGH!!! WTF is going on??? This is, well, STUPID! Here's some other cute metrics, their P/E is TWICE as high as it was a year ago, and is PROJECTED, to be 25% higher NEXT year, than this YEAR! This is fricking in sanity, this thing should be trading at LEAST, 50% LOWER, than a year ago, rather than making a new 52 week high!!! Wad ever, you can't argue with the stupid tape, eventually of course, it's REAL value will catch up to the STUPID value, and it will be 50+% lower than where it is now, hopefully.

11/25/09

9:00am MT: The Q's have been walking around for the last three days, inside of one of the best looking triangles I have seen, on the 60min chart. The Udder index's are not showing this configuration. I'm not sure of the Elliott wave count, but I could make a case for a completed five waves up, OR, this could be a fourth wave triangle, which ALWAYS, breaks, in the direction of the previous trend, in this case, UP. HOWEVER, it we are in a corrective wave, after the five waves up, we could be setting up for an EQUAL MOVE to the down side, the first move being the move from the white 5, down to the green 2, which is about 1.40, so an equal move would start from the high two days ago, which would put a target right at 43, or that orange 200 MA. You could also make a case for a break to the down side with the count on the triangle, they always to FIVE point touch's, with the first point starting at the entrance, which is the white 5, which is ONE, the count is then the green numbers, and we've touched the 5 point, so the next move would be away from the last point, or down.
Regardless, we will get a "MOVE", which ever way it breaks, although a down side break will yield a LOT more, in my opinion. Maybe, if we hold in here through friday, we get some baaaaaaaaad (damn sheep) news about black friday, that will lead to the down side break. Wad ever, my play of course, is to wait for the break, which ever way it goes.

Watch List for 11/25/09

Rather than Watch list, it should be watch out you don't fall asleep (I did). Those are probably two of the single most obnoxious looking back to back candles I've seen in some time, you think maybe some body is trying to hold us at this level, until after black friday??

There were actually some fairly decent bullish setup's on the scans. TZOO may be that small cap that the lackies play with on friday, I don't like the company but you can't deny the nice candle, with the big volume bar, the MACD is on a sell, but your risk is very obvious, I would take it over today's high, with a stop under 14 some where.

Other's that look half ass decent include NWL, RTLX, DO, TRLG, CJA, ARIA, HKN, MOH, USB, MRX, SWKS, WAT, TJX, OSK.

On the bearish side, VMC fell out of bed two months ago, had a nice bear flag, fell out of bed again, and has now rallied back up to under it's 50dma, I could see this trying to double bottom again around 45, stop over that 50dma naturally. Others include MDRX, ANEN, BAMM, NWS, RENT, CBM, TDY, JAKK, CBT, MWW, VFC, SMG, OI.

11/24/09

The Bobber's, McHugh and Pretcher, are going nuts, hahahahahahahaha!!!! Robert McHugh sent me his daily advertisement this morning, and in it, he said:

"One of the most alarming developments in all the indicators we follow, is the curling over from extreme overbought levels, from levels that have represented major tops in the past, in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator. This is a dangerous situation. We presented that chart to subscribers in Monday's Market Newsletter at http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/
Monday saw a rally for the 10th time out of the past 12 Mondays, which is fishy, and it was sharp. If the PPT is goosing markets on Mondays, they inadvertently helped a fascinating time and price confluence occur Monday. Markets seek order, so this confluence Monday could be meaningful. We present the details of this amazing moment in time and price level in Monday's Market Newsletter to subscribers at http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/"

Unfortunately, I saw Bob Pretcher on Fast Money yesterday, and he let the cat out of the bag. I have to admit, I've never seen Pretcher as giddy as he was yesterday, hahahaha, anyway, what's happened, is that not only has the S&P 500 hit the 50% retracement level, from the March low to the October 07' high, it's done it in almost exactly 50% of the time of that bear market, the bear market from the high in October 07', to the bottom in March of this year, took 74 weeks, and this rally off the March lows is in it's 37th week. They are completely convinced this is it, REALLY, HONEST, THE TOP IS IN!!! My personal feeling is that, we are so close to that major down trend line from the October 07' top, there's just no way they don't at least test it. It comes in at around 1150 on the S&P, and about 10,850 on the DOW.

Anyway, the futures are raining on their bear market parade a little this morning, as the DOW is up a little, about 16 points. We get the second Guesstimate, eeeeeerrrrrrrr, ESTIMATE, of the 3rd quarter GDP at 8:30am ET, which could move us if it misses enough, then a bunch of housing data, with the FOMC minutes coming out at 2pm ET, which almost always moves us around.

Good luck out there in La La Land.

6:40am MT: Futures stayed about the same after the GDP release come in exactly as forecast, about .8% LOWER than the first guess. China fell 3.5% over night, when the Central bank warned lender's to STOP lending, or ELSE! This guy basically sum's the whole situation up:

"After a bumper start to the week, there's perhaps no surprise to see a degree of profit taking in the short term, although there still seems to be upward momentum in the market, confounding the pessimists, at least for the time being," said Ben Potter, research analyst at IG Markets."

Hahahahaha, you think these guy's stay awake at night, trying to figure out the most ambiguous statement they can make????

Watch List for 11/24/09

Is it just me, or did anyone else notice that, ALL, the February options in the Q's, finished in the GREEN today??????????? I'm probably a little, aaaahhhh, WEIRD, but it sure seems to me, that on a big UP day like this, the PUTS would be in the RED!!!!!
Harry Domash has a number of interesting little stat's here, http://www.winninginvesting.com/research_tidbits.htm .

The SPY ended up with a nasty looking BOF, break out failure bar, the previous rally high was 111.69, and they managed to take it out by FIVE whole stinking cents, 111.74, before falling into the close. The STOCH remains extremely over bought, and looking to break under 80, which is a sell, the RSI looks to have room to the upside, and without the obnoxious gap this morning, the MACD would have put on a cross over sell signal. The DIA held the gap, which reinforces my opinion that "they" are using the big caps to try and hold the market up.
Right now, of course, the SPY is sitting in that range, from the high to 109, that 109 level is really important, a break below that and it see's 107, and a big GAP FILL, at that 50dma. Until we hold a break out higher, OR, break below 109, I see choppy movement.

There were lots of lousy looking charts, IE, SHORTS, GES is typical, it's trying to hold a short term double bottom, if it breaks that, well, it could see a gap fill at 32, maybe all the way down to 28. Others, that look "similar", include URBN, HOC, KBH, AN, M.

I couldn't find diddly squat for longs, sorry bulls, CMCSA looks some what decent, maybe AMLN, LRY, ENDP.

Sunday Muse

NUMBER ONE, there is nothing in that chart that says it's a longer term short right now, all that's going on, is some WARNING SHOTS are being fired across the bow, as I pointed out in the Advance/Decline lines the other day, along with the horrible money flow divergence going on.
With that little dinky NR7 doji day on friday, I fully expect the MASSIVE drop of last week (if you listen to the yelling screaming yakking TV heads, you would have thought we fell through the March lows, hahaha) to probably be over, for now, and with every monday for the last, what, YEAR!, being a huge pump day, with "some body" screwing with the futures over the weekend, we probably put off any short setup until after this week. What I'd LIKE to see (HAH! good luck with this senario), is we either open under friday's low tomorrow, or, even better, open higher and then rush down right away and take that low out, and go after the gap fill that's waiting for us, between 42.50 and 43, from two weeks ago, and then, get the MAGIC SAVE (again), and finish positive on the day, then we wallow around higher for the rest of the week, and maybe setup a double top, which is kind of the senario I drew on the chart. Maybe we get some new divergence's setting up if we try a double top, or even better, we make a LOWER high, wad ever, that would be the BEST case, SHORT TERM, senario, for a short setup. The WORST CASE, is that since we are in NO MAN'S LAND, IE, we are inbetween the LOWER LOW from November 1st, and the higher high, we wallow around inside this massive, possible, BROADENING TOP, for like, a couple of months, and set up some kind of possible head and shoulder's formation, which would be just horrible, as it put's the short off until the worst month of the year, February, sigh, which the only good thing about having to wait that long, is that the eventual break of the OBVIOUS neck line, at $41, would be the play of the year, with a possibility of 50% gains on the short side, or MORE!

You know, good ole Sysin reminded me of this guys site, http://www.indexindicators.com/, I actually stopped using him, and took him off the links page, because I was having trouble getting into the site, and his site was having a lot of delays in getting his feed out on a daily basis.
Anyway, there's been a pretty consistant pattern you can use for short term short signals, and that's when the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 10dma, get's above 90%. Since June, five of the last six times this has happened, it's been a nice short entry, the only exception being the July blast off. What USUSALLY happens (that's a disclaimer), is you get a divergence, the 10dma starts going DOWN, into a NEW HIGH in the price of the S&P, IE, fewer and fewer stocks are supporting the rise. You've been able to short it with virtual impunity, with out hardly any draw down, the only problem being, you have not made a hell of a lot on the shorts, YET! Eventually, of course, this type of setup will lead into, THE BIG ONE (HAHAHAHA!), if the two Bobber's, Pretcher and McHugh, are ever right.

I'm showing the percentage of stocks above their 20dma because of an interesting little situation, this is not as good an indicator for "short term" short setups, BUT, the thing I'm noticing, is the total number of stocks above their 20dma has been declining, with each new high in the S&P since August, IE, fewer and fewer stocks are taking the index higher. This fit's in EXACTLY, with Da Boyz, and the hedgies and Quants, using a few of the big caps, to drive us higher. In contrast, more and more stocks are falling under their 20dma, with each decline in the index. I find this really interesting, I don't know WHY, but, I find it interesting.

That 10dma chart, at the top, is actually on a buy right now, or close to it, which goes along with the coming week being, TRADITIONALY, a positive one, as shown by Bespoke here, http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/ , actually, damnit, it's NOT there, but it's there some where, he shows the actual performance during Turkey week, and it's really weird, because my totally unquantitative GUT, "FEELING" (IE, VOODOO), is that monday is positive, tuesday weak, and then we ALWALYS (hahahaha) finish positive on wednesday and friday. Friday by the way, is small cap lottery day, when the lackies that are assigned to the trading desks, move some of the small caps around, just to have a little fun on that day.

Weekly MSW Swing Trade Update for 11/23/09

The MSW came up with very few swing trade idea's for the scan of the daily charts of the 800+ ETF's, and even that is confused, as it wants to buy emerging markets in the form of GMM, and short them in the form of EET.

The weekly scan didn't come up with very many idea's either, for the ETF's, none of the new buy signals interest me, and some of those are those very illiquid ETF's as well. I put a couple of the "confirmed" short idea's on the charts, a "confirmed" short is a NEW short signal that is issued on a stock that already has a short signal on it, IE, it actually issues a new short signal that confirms the previous short. It doesn't like, and has not LIKED, housing, or the dollar. By the way, that new short signal on the Mid Caps, in the upper left corner, doesn't do justice, as the daily chart has a HUGE gap down on friday, very weak ETF.

The MSW came up with a few idea's on the daily swing scan of the Russell 3000, it's pretty split between longs and shorts. I have the new buy for FST in the upper left corner, I only bring this up because FST seem's to be a favorite of a number of "analyst", who have been saying to buy this thing all the way down, even though it's lost 1/3 of it's value the last month, hmmmmmm, makes me wonder when there's so much love for a declining stock. The other new buy is GBLC, hahahahahahahahahaha, number one, I can't believe this stupid thing is still around, and number two, I wonder how many people are still hanging on, from when it was some where north of $2500 bucks a share!!!! The short idea's are typical, you can short any thing with immunity, after this coming week.

The weekly Russell 3000 scan came up with a lot of idea's, mostly short ones. I'm not interested in ANY of the long idea's, I kind of screwed the charts up, as the new buy's are the two charts on the right side. The two new shorts, on the left side, are MMM and GMCR, is the GREEN for Green Mountain roaster's finally over???? The rest of the short idea's are in the lower list.