Weekly MSW Swing Trade Update for 12/07/09

The MSW weekly scan of the ETF's came up with 10 new buy signals, and 13 new shorts, over all it's on 44 total buy signals, and 37 short signals, just the very tiniest bullish, but to me the important part, is the extremely SMALL number of signals that are being generated, this is true with the daily signals below, and the Russell 3000 signals below that. When things are really happening, I've seen the MSW generating over 400-500 signals on the 800 plus ETF's, and over 1500 on the Russell 3000, I mean, it's just NOT that interested right now, it's having a hard time finding any technical setup's. This, of course, tell's me that I should tread carefully here, we could go EITHER way.

It like's small caps, mid caps, oil, the Russell 3000, and the Gulf states after the dump last week. It hates financials, any thing with METAL in it's name, consumer goods, the Yen VS the Dollar, the total world stock market, and in a surprise, it's think's housing has found a bottom. Good luck with THAT one.

The ETF daily scan came up with only 5 new buy signals, and 7 new shorts, over all it's on only 37 new buy signals, and 64 short signals, two to one on the short side, BUT, a very low number of total signals. It likes oil, gasoline and the Global Alternative energy fund, all related of course, it hates bonds, dividends, and the base metals.

The weekly scna of the Russell 3000 came up with 36 new buy signals, and 26 new short signals. Over all, it's on 193 buy signals, and 222 short signals, just marginally bearish.

The daily scan of the Russell 3000 came up with 42 buys and only 10 new shorts, pretty bullish, over all it's on 162 buy signals and 107 shorts, so it predominately bullish, but, only 269 signals out of 3000 stocks is not very many, meaning it's just having a hard time finding any thing it's interested in.

The rest of the list of the weekly and daily short signals is below. I've said this before, and I'll say it again, the MSW is just a PROSPECTING tool, it finds what it considers tradeable setups, it's up to you to do your due diligence before taking any of the signals.

Weekly Sector, Industry and Russell 1000 Money Flows

5:30pm: I don't CARE, if USC is having a bad year, when you consider that USC has only lost two home games out of their last 50, ARIZONA did a great job beating them tonight, and earning second place in the PAC 10, with a spot waiting for them in that lousy Holiday Bowl. Geeze I wish the PAC 10 would get out of that stupid contract, the second place team in the PAC 10 ALWAYS, deserves to be in a New Year's Day Bowl game. Anyway, great job Cat's, BEAR DOWN ARIZONA!!!
Also, congratulation's to Alabama, for ending Florida's run, IT WAS A GREAT RUN, but all things must end some time. Just thank your lucky stars, Bama, that you don't have to play one of those Mountain West Teams in a bowl again this year, YOU REMEMBER THEM, THE ONE'S THAT KICKED YOUR EVERY LOVING ASSSSSSSSSS, IN THE SUGAR BOWL LAST YEAR, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Bama being the same exact team by the way, that had been ranked Number one all year, until they lost to Florida. TCU would blow either Bama or Texas out of the stinking stadium, if given the chance, wad ever, enjoy your second rate Bowl games again this year, thanks to the slimey BCS.
Oh, yea, did I forget the lowly WAC, hahahahahahaha, you remember them, their Champion, Boise State, beat the PAC 10 Champ Oregon, hahahahahaha, I guess a LOT of the BCS ahole's would like to forget that one. How come Boise is not in the ROSE BOWL, they are a WESTERN TEAM?????? In typical fashion, and right along with the stupid BCS bull shit, another one they would like to forget, is that USC beat the Little Ten Champion, Ohio State, AT OHIO STATE, and USC finish's in sixth place in the PAC 10, but Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl, and is ranked 10th, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, my god, this system is so screwed up, it's just unstinking real!!!! The Little Ten Champion doesn't even deserve to play in the Detriot City Motor Bowl, hahahahahahaha!
Speaking of the lowly WAC, the coach at Fresono State, had some interesting statements after the game today, like, over the last ten years, they've beaten 81 BCS teams, while only losing to six, and, they've been to nine bowl games in those ten years. I bring this up, because of course, that monster Cincinnati (did I spell that right? What state are they in???), beat Fresno 28-20, AT HOME, on a stinking FLUKE, and lucky for them, they play in some third rate conference called the Big East, which they WON, because they played, and beat, NO BODY, other than Fresno and Oregon State, and end up ranked fifth, and get to go to a New Year's day bowl. Hey, I'm real happy for you, Cincinnati, that you managed to beat the third place team in the WAC at home, wooooo hoooooo, you deserve every thing you get.




Some pretty interesting developments in the index's, I have the SPY on the bottom, main chart, followed by the DIA, and then the IWM at the top. The SPY continues to work on a triangle on it's TSV indicator, Time Segmented Volume, and will break one way or da udder, once they make "their" minds up. But those last three candles are just about three of the uuuugggillliest candles I've seen in some time, three consecutive break out failure bar's in a row, each one making new rally highs for the period, each one failing to hold those new highs, each one taking out the prior day's low at some point, and each one closing lower than the previous days open, I mean, it's obvious they are selling into each new high, but at this point, TSV and MS continue to trend upwards above the TSV zero line, so, well, it's continuing up. In contrast, the DIA had a bad day yesterday, it held it's TSV line, but MS dumped below the trend line, probably with the weakness in DD, MCD, WMT, XOM, JPM, TRV, AA and AXP. I don't like to get to much junk on the charts, so I don't have the volume bars on it, but all four of the index's had the most volume yesterday, in just about the last two months, VERY, unusual, for a friday.
The IWM is totally different than the other index's, both TSV and MS have broken to the upside, and in complete contrast to the senior's, the small caps put on a VERY nice bar yesterday, closing above the day before, I could easily see this thing testing the old highs pretty soon. It appear's that the traditional January rotation into small caps is starting early, with money flowing out of the big dog blue caps, into the more speculative little guys.

I'm going ALL IN on the airlines........................................... hahahahahahaha, yeeeaaaa, rrriiiiighttt, how long has it been since the last time they all filed BK???? Anyway, you can't deny that they are leading the industry suicide run, eeeeeeerrrrr, money flows, followed by the Semi's. The run up in the Semi's is really interesting, BECAUSE:

the worst inflows are into personal computers, hahahahahaha, now, if that ain't the stupidest thing I've seen in some time, let me get this straight, Semi's are going to Da Moon, because no one's buying personal computers????? Hmmmmm. Also, just two spots above the personal computers, is Multimedia & Graphics Software, now, ain't dat CHIP'S???? I'm tellin ya, funny stuff it is.

I high lighted BAC on the Russell 1000 leading money flow stocks, as that is a pretty interesting situation going on there. Number one, I HAVE, to think, this is a huge short squeeze, as there was probably a TON of people trying to short the obvious dilution from the equity sale, BUT, if it is a squeeze, they can carry this thing quite a ways, before the "realization" wave set's in, that is, the "WAVE" of loan reset's that are coming up in the next year, actually, the largest number of reset's since the "crisis" started. Wad ever, that's a pretty decent looking engulfing candle, and your R/R is firmly set, under yesterday's candle and I would probably NOT want to be sticking around. Who knows, they may try and fill that gap up there around $18, hhhhmmmmm.

I'm always more interested in the worst money flows in the Russell 1000, and like I mentioned earlier in the week, it's pretty interesting that the leader of the TECH world is among those, AAPL, and the leader of the FINANCIAL world, GS, just missed making the bottom of this list. I see some of the fancy dancy retailer's took a hit this week, geeeeee, why am I not surprised over some thing like that! The really funny part, to me at least, is two of the dollar retailer's are on the list as well, DLTR and FDO, hahahahahahaha, what it means of course, is the stinking consumer ain't buyin a damn thing!

12/04/09

6:35am: Hahahahahaha, and HAH! The markets are blowing up after the jobs report,
Nov. jobless rate falls to 10 pct., 11K job cuts (AP) , DOW futures up about 110 points, the S&P futures are about to take out the highs of the last few days, like I kind of casually mentioned last night, I was wondering if this might be a bear trap, well, da trap was definitely sprung this morning, the ROACH's!! Anyway, this probably give's the all clear for the Santa rally for the rest of the month, I mean, it "COULD", be another break out failure today, which would be a real killer, but I highly doubt that will happen. It will be fun to see the "revised" figures next month, hahahaha, lies, nothing but DAMN LIES, but of course, that's NEXT month, until then, enjoy.

MRVL came to my attention because it beat earnings last night. You know, when you have a bunch of positions you are in, my natural tendency is to monitor my own stuff, and I miss a lot of things, MRVL was setting up a terriffic pattern going into earnings, it had a little inverted head and shoulders, usually you can get an idea of a target, by measuring the depth of the pattern, in this case, it's 3 bucks, so a target would be about 19.50. It's at 17.90 in the premarket, so it "MAY", have more to go. On a longer term basis, it may have kind of a cup and handle pattern on it, which could measure to a longer term target of about $29. It has resistance at $18, which is probably why it's sitting at 17.90 in the premarket, if it get's over that next resistance is 20-21 bucks, and once over that, and it's off to da races, with not much resistance up to the $30 level, or even to it's highs in 06' at $35.

One stock not participating this morning is BAC, as they priced the TARP pay off last night at $15, which I actually thought was pretty stinking good, the stock is down a little , but not that much, in the $15.60 area, above the offering price, hhmmmmmmm. John Paulson, the hottest hedge fund manager going, supposedly has a huge bet on this thing, that it goes to $32 by next November, and I also know that the conservative one on Fast Money, Karen, has been liking it for a while, and she's a funnymental type investor. Hmmmmmmm.

Watch List for 12/04/09

Two of the more interesting ETF's, with regard's to our WEAK dollar policy here, are Canada and Australia, hey, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

There's no need for a watch list, at least, not until after the jobs report in the morning. I'm using the chart of the SPY, but the udder's are close to the same, the SPY just barely missed a key reversal day yesterday, well, today, it took care of THAT, hahahaha! We made new highs for the rally period, and then proceeded to not just close LOWER, but we took out the low's of the last two days. We actually have NOT violated the lower trend line on the TSV indicator, but we are sitting right under it, any lower close tomorrow and we get a cross over. The Q's are actually in better shape, TSV and MS wise, than the other index's, but if things get nasty, they will join the party with a vengenence. The main troubling problem, of course, has been the lower highs in both TSV and MS, all the way up, on each new high since September, like I said before, "they", are taking us up with fewer and fewer stocks participating, mostly through the pump of the big dogs.

We haven't had a bar like this in quite a while, especially in the "context" of where we are, you have to look way over to the left, to late September, in the circle, that was a key reversal, that was ALSO a bearish engulfing bar, as you can see, we had an immediate two days of follow through, then a huge one day bounce, and then four more days of follow through. Even worse, to me at least, is out of the 861 ETF's in the scan, 296 of them had bar's like this, not good at all.

On a technical basis, we have to go all the way to that low from monday around 107, before we make a lower low, and then I'd have to see where the ensuing rally took us back to, before I'd put on a position short. I, STILL, don't think, they are going to let that happen, until after the first of the year. Who knows, it may be another bear trap ahead of the jobs report, sigh, wad ever, tread softly and carry a big fricking stick.

In the Russell 1000, we had 221 bars similar to the above, naturally, for a long trade, I'm more interested in stocks that put a decent looking bar on them today, moving completly opposite of the market, some of these are VRTX, BDX, WLT, DNR, ATK, MDR, OSG, and XEL. Not a lot, but there was some there.

Late PS: It's kind of funny, but I went through all the big banks, because of the stuff going on with BAC, and BAC actually had a better TSV and MS configuration that a lot of the other big boys, very strange stuff, some of them look REALLY lousy, like, WFC, GS, AXP, JPM, COF, JEF, MS.

12/03/09

2:15pm: The Q's made a hell of an effort to be as obnoxious as they could all day, staying in between the Pivot and the R1 level, YUCKO! They actually put up quite a fight against the late sell off we got, you can see on my A/D chart at the top, that the NYSE started breaking down with a cross over at about 12:15MT, in the circle, and the Q's didn't really break under the Pivot until we got into the last half hour of the day. Yea, they put up a fight, but when they decided to go, they made up a lotta ground quickly, hahahahaha!! "SHOULD", we continue down, the, "LOGICAL", first target, is the gap fill from the close three days ago, about 43.55, of course, "LOGICAL", usually means, it either ain't gonna happen, or we probably blow right through it!

I just know, Goldman has some thing to do with this, I can't prove it, as I haven't found it, but they probably came out late, with a bearish prediction on the jobs report in the morning. It may be worse than expected, who knows, the timing of that job task force at the White House, the day before the report, may be saying some thing it and of itself, we shall see.

5:30am: Another day, another dime, hopefully! Futures are up this morning, DOW about 28, if this holds up, this is a typical cute little "trick" Da Boyz use, to get us over a resistance area that they are having trouble with. As pointed out yesterday, we made new rally and 52 week highs, but were unable to hold it, so what they do, is simply gap us over the resistance in the after hours, when no one is home, and hope it convince's enough people to simply "hold on" to their "investments", rather than sell into the new highs. Maybe they get the few short's that are left, to give it up for awhile, who knows, we shall see.
Ya know, I forget who it was I was reading, or listening to, but "he", mentioned that there probably wasn't a chance in hell, that "they", allow the big one to happen before the first of the year, "THEY", being Da Boyz on Da Street, as they need to hold us up long enough here, to lock those bonus's in before the end of the year. That make's perfect sense to me, it would explain how we seem to magically levitate at these levels, despite the low volume, despite the completely unrealistic expectations for earnings next year, despite some of the most over valued big cap blue dog's I've ever seen (like DE), continuing to romp higher day after day, getting more and more over loved, and despite an administration that is doing every thing in their power to chase every current and future, employer's, out of the country, with the huge tax increase's and regulation that is coming down the road like a run away freight train with a load of cow pie's. I watched the CEO of NUE on Fast Money yesterday, he's part of the job's task force today, or wad ever it is, boy, was he upset. He said he had never seen such stupid policies out of Washington in his entire life in business, it's like they took economic's 101, and just turned it upside down, trying their damnest to ensure we stay in a recession for, like, the ten year's during the 30's. Sigh.

I checked out a blogger who left a note on the sight, nice looking blog, http://www.tradingwiththeaveragejay.blogspot.com/ , I wish mine looked that nice. I notice he use's Linear Regression channel's a lot, I know that Charles Kirk, some time's called Captain Kirk here, is a big believer in those. I don't have a problem with them, but I have just never been able to get the one's that come with TradeStation to look right, plus they use up to much space on the bottom indicator area, PLUS, I have a problem with some thing that keep's changing all the time, IE, they tend to move up and down and around as price move's on, I suppose that's why people use them. I prefer to just use my stupid little trend line's, and support and resistance line's.

I'm beginning to think my compadre Sysin has to much time on his hands, hahahahahaha, he sent me a note about a couple of Twitter site's I might like, http://twitter.com/shitmydadsays and http://twitter.com/FakeAPStylebook , hahahahaha, I have to admit the first one is pretty funny, it's about a 29 year old kid that live's with his 73 year old father, and the kid just post's shit his Dad says, hahahahahahaha, sigh, sound's like some one else I know. Anyway, he has 886,874 follower's, hahahahahaha, that's as funny as the site itself!!!!!
In other major new's events of the day, in checking with my kid's to find out the schedule for the Holiday, my youngest son informed me he's getting married!!! Bout time, no date yet, your all invited when I find out the date.

Watch List for 12/03/09

7:00pm: Hahahahahahahahaha, HAH, I love stuff like this, Jason Goepfert at Sentiment Trader, http://sentimentrader.blogspot.com/ , had a subtle little post on twitter today, about the S & P, that being, that the last time the S&P made a new 52 week high, and then closed lower, WITH, the I.I., Investor's Intelligence survey, showing less than 25% bears, was 10/11/07, in the RED circle above, hahahahahahaha! Of course, like he said, it wasn't predictive of any thing, before then!

5:00pm: The SPY, "technically", had a break out failure bar today, it made a new rally high, and failed to hold that high, closing five cents lower on the day, very inspiring. BUT, TSV has broken to the upside, and MS is continuing to hold it's upward trend line, it won't be a short, for me, until it breaks those lower trend lines. In the after hours BAC came out and said they are repaying the 45 Billion in TARP funds, by using all their cash and capital, and diluting share holder's and selling their future for the next ten years, so naturally, they are up, and helping to lift the futures.

MET showed up on the bullish scans tonight, it put on a bullish engulfing candle, and crossed over it's down trend line, not shown is positive cross overs in TSV and MS, it, MAY, be done with it's down trend. Other's showing similar parameters include WOOF, USG, BSX, UHS, SEE, HST, WRI, AA.

EMC showed up on the bearish scans, it has a bearish engulfing candle, with a negative cross over of TSV and MS, plus, it's working on a very clear head and shoulder's pattern, with the NECKLINE at $16, of course, when ever any thing is "VERY CLEAR", it will probably fail, other's showing similar parameters include ERTS, FTO, OSK, MTW, SWN, CHS, KR, BBY, VAR.

Watch List for 12/02/09

Some idea's from the MSW scan of the ETF's, the top charts are off the weekly scan, the bottom charts are off the daily scan. I showed the daily chart of the Q's, because the software shorted them yesterday. It didn't stop out today, in fact, in contrast, it put on a CONFIRMED short signal, which is a NEW short signal, that it does on an existing position, when it gets a new short signal. IE, it doesn't like the stinking Q's, wad ever.

Some swing trade idea's from the MSW on the Russell 1000.

My personal opinion, is I thought it a little weird today, that the leader of the TECH world, AAPL, and the leader of the FINANCIAL world, GS, were both down today, on this big up day. Hmmmmm, funny stuff it is.

12/01/09

John Hussman does crack me up, I noticed he made Bloomberg TV headlines today, about his article yesterday, way to go John, http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091130.htm , I've never seen him mentioned on Bloomberg before. He actually cite's a couple of other sources, beside's his own figure's, to lend some credence to his claim that there's an 80% chance we will have another economic crisis in the next year, and that the market is currently over valued by 40%. I TOTALLY DISAGREE WITH HIM! I think there's about a 100% chance of an economic collaspe, and the market is AT LEAST, 60% over valued, the way I see it, if we get through the March lows, there's no way we don't see the 400's.
Anyway, until then, I continue blissfully on my merry way, with a little day trade here, another one there, etc etc etc.

I usually don't mention the Pristine stock of the week, but I'm pretty amazed at this weeks "pick". They are taking this LONG, above 5.76, IE, over the high of yesterday, with a stop under the low of two days ago, 5.41. I only bring this up, because this thing could move if that bunch piles into it.
Anyway, the thing that amazes me, is what a lousy looking pattern!! Usually, they don't bottom fish a peice of junk like this, they go for a stock that is in an up trend, with a three day pull back to a rising 20dma, or some thing along those lines. This thing looks to me, like it's been in a slightly upsloping bear flag for the last month, and is probably dying to go down. They are only looking for a target of 6.50, so they aren't looking for much, that would be the open of the gap down day, it's just that, THIS IS THE BEST THEY COULD COME UP WITH???? Hahahaha, what this tell's me, is that even some of the best and brightest, are finding it difficult to come up with some decent looking charts to trade off of.

The futures are blowing up this morning, DOW up about 65 points, with the "official" explanation being the positive data from those lying slimey commie bastards in China, wad ever, the "real" reason is Da Boyz are pumping us higher, to make sure the 401K'ers have to buy their monthly donations, as high as possible, hahahaha! We get the ISM number at 10am ET, definitely a market mover, a slightly lower number of 55 is "expected".
Good luck out there.

Watch List for 12/01/09

Hahahahahahahaha, I was watching the Wall Street Web Cam this morning, http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/nyse/ , and I'll be a sum of a bit, old man Vito Carlone, head of the Bank of Italy, some times called BAC, was leaning out the window, yelling and waving his arms at old man Goldman across the street, asking him for an upgrade so he could get the hell out of his shit stock, and Goldman was just about to give him a thumb's up, when old JP Morgan starts yelling and crying that, HEY, he could use one to, so old man Goldman said, OK, I'll do it, but you have to promise to upgrade me pretty soon here!!!!! So he DID, http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=bac , the funny part is that Goldman's stock went up more than the upgrade's, hahahahaha!! I'm telling ya, these people are a kick, if nothing else.

Actually, I thought it was a pretty decent day, we had more volume than any day last week, we got the reversal after the Boyz having fun with each other. My 15min floor trader pivot chart was pretty interesting, we basically opened flat, wallowed around the first half hour, made the high of the day the next half hour, then I guess old man Goldman must have down graded old man Q, as we sold off pretty hard, it got really exciting when we blasted through the low of the last bar on friday, and then we started climbing out, and things got pretty cool in that circled area. We rallied right up to the daily pivot point, and then kept bumping against it, and pulling back, for an HOUR, but we stayed above the 20ma the whole time, and right under the VWAP, then we finally blasted off into the close, when we finally got through the pivot point, closing right under the highs of the day. I thought that was pretty cool stuff.
Currently, the futures are down in the after hours, I have no idea why, maybe old man Goldman down graded himself, hahahahahahaha!!!!

Despite what CNBC is saying, the IWM is the only one to have a bullish reversal day, the other's had nice days, Q's, DIA and SPY, and with the strongest month of the year starting tomorrow, and tomorrow being the 401K first day of the month, I figure we "might", get some follow through.

There was a whole bunch of bullish reversal bars today, usually a good sign for the bull's, MET is typical, I'm not recommending it, the chart is just typical looking. Other's that look close to the same include IBKR, XL, MMC, PL, LAZ, LNC, CMP, AOC, etc etc etc, there's a bunch of them.

There were some fairly decent bearish bars, CHK, MYGN, CLR, KWK, HK, YHOO, ODP. Also, for some reason, a lot of the oil stocks are looking weak, hmmmm, I suppose that could change in an instant if Obama endorse's Climategate.

Weekly MSW Swing Trade Update for 11/30/09

The MSW 7 day scan only came up with three new buys and eight new shorts, and it only has 34 total signals, out of over 800 ETF's, which tells me the software is just not interested in the "market". It put a new buy on my DPO, which is that 16% yielder for the DOW stocks, although it has NO signals on any of the other DOW ETF's. It wants to short silver and the retail sector, it must know some thing about Black Friday, hahahahaha, sigh!
Bill Luby came up with a link to a good article about Dubai (no, not that George one), http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=6358 , it's obvious that the whole thing is waaaaay over blown, and as such, I imagine we get our typical monday blow up to the upside, followed by four days of typcial backing and filling, another "sigh", sigh.


The weekly scan of the ETF's came up with three new buys, and 16 new shorts, it is currently on 75 total signals, slightly more than the daily scans. It wants to short emerging markets (does Dubai have an ETF??) and the base metals.

The MSW came up with 17 new buys on the daily swing trade's for the Russell 3000, and 34 new shorts, the rest of the shorts are included in the list at the bottom. It is using the drop by NFLX on friday, as an opportunity to buy it, I showed the new buy on NSM, as I heard a couple of maaaaaaaaaavelous analyst this week talking about it. I included the new short on FCX as it goes along with how the software is feeling about the metals, I have no idea why I put that chart of ANN up there, other than it's kind of typical of what the other short signals look like.

The weekly Russell 3000 swing trade scan came up with 19 new buys and 65 new shorts. As a new buy, LEAP might be a bit of a leap, but it looks like a decent slimmey bottom fisher type of pattern, I included the new buy on MOS, mainly because I think that DBA is looking interesting, if that make's any sense. Evidently it doesn't like the food at Chipotle, as it want's to short it, and it obviously doesn't think the Android is going to do a damn thing for MOT.

On an over all basis, the MSW is on 104 buy signals, and 352 total short signals, so it's pretty bearish, although, 450+ signals is not that many for 3000 stocks.