Year's Ending in ZERO

Dr. McHugh, in his latest Advertisement, trying to get me to sign up again, sent me an email, talking about the years ending in "ZERO". So I checked it OUT! You don't have to subscribe to his news letter, I can show you how they ended up, wooooo hoooooo, you just made a couple of hundred bucks!!!!

1920 lost 28%. 1930 lost 34%. 1940 was a decent year, it only lost 6%. 1950 MADE, 18%, off this weird bunch, called, THE BABY BOOMERS! 1960 ONLY, lost 2%. 1970 made, 1/2 of 1%. 1980 made 15%. 1990 lost 4%. 2000 lost 6%.

SO, since 1920, in year's ending in ZERO, it has lost money in six of the nine decades, averaging 17% losses, and it averaged 11% gains on the three years it made money.
Hmmmmmmmm! Let me get this straight, year's ending in ZERO, since 1920, lost money in six out of the nine decades, and in the three decades it MADE money, one of them was after WWII, when the BOOMER's arrived, the next time was 1970 when we were all graduating from College, and the next time, was in 1980 when we were all reaching our peak earnings years!

Hmmmmmmmmmmm!

Hmmmmmmmmmmm!

And of course, WE, being the Boomer's, who have all the stinking money right now, and, WHO, or, WHOM, have gotten our Assssssssss's kicked over the last Decade, are just excited as SHIT, about "INWESTING", in STOCKS, for the LONG TERM! HAHAHAHAHA, the, "LONG TERM", being, of course, if YOU, can make it through the NEXT fricking year!!!!!

HMMMMMMM!

8:00pm: Hmmmmmm, let me get this STRAIGHT, Mark Ingram win's the Heisman's Trophy, finishing in FIFTH place in the NCAA running back Stats, http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics, while Toby Gerhart, lose's to him, while beating him by 200 yards, finishing in first place in the NCAA Stat's, while also leading the Nation in Scoring, all the while running behind the Stanford Offensive line, as compared to Ingram running behind the Alabama Offfensive line! Hmmmmm!!!!

Weird stuff, ain't it???I mean, I don't follow their thinking here, I mean, do the "voter's" think, that if Ingram had been running behind one of the other school's Offensive lines, he would have gained MORE YARDS????

A Peek at the SPY and Q's

5:00pm: Hahahahaha, I'M DONE!! I'm busy nailing my door's shut until March 1, we have a Winter Storm warning in effect until tomorrow night at 5pm, http://bit.ly/5aiVmg ! Happy Trails to everyone, see you then!!!
I'm watching the FCS playoff game between the U. of Montana, in Missoula, and Appalachian State, hahahahaha, what a crack up! Missoula is actually a LOT lower than us, 3200 ft. compared to our 6000, but they got a HELL of a snow storm there, after they went in for half time! Anyway, it's so NICE, to watch the TRUE, National Championships! Earlier today, I watched Northwest Missouri State beat Grand Valley State for the Division II "CHAMPIONSHIP", the winner of the game tonight advances to the Division 1-AA "CHAMPIONSHIP", next friday. I say, "CHAMPIONSHIP", because, of course, their "CHAMPIONSHIPS", are determined by a "PLAY OFF" system, in which, they determine, a TRUE, NATIONAL CHAMPION!!!!
I only bring this up, of course, because the BS BCS, "NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP", is only determined, by, "MONEY"!!!!!!!!!!! It just amazes me, about how these little dinky schools, have, SOME HOW, figured out how to have a PLAY OFF SYSTEM, while the "MONEY" schools, for some strange reason, don't have a brain up their fricking ass, enough, to figure out, "A PLAY OFF SYSTEM", HAHAHAHAHA!! The part that cracks me up, is that 99.9999% of the BS BCS Bowl games, are worth EXACTLY, NOTHING! Because, they aren't playing for any thing. Imagine, if each of the LESSER, Bowl Games, hosted, INSTEAD, PLAY OFF GAMES!! You know, where each game actually, MEANT SOME THING!! I mean, the possibilities are endless, if they would only THINK ABOUT IT!
Anyway, in a white out fricking snow storm, Montana beat Appalachian State, with over 25,000 home fan's staying in the Stadium until the finish, it probably don't mean shit to you, but the town of Missoula, only has 58,000 people in it, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! The whole stinking town shut's down for their football games!! Great Stuff!

As I've mentioned numerous times, the main troubling aspect of the recent rally has been the huge divergence that is happening between the RSI and MACD, and price. Both of the charts above are three year charts, the SPY at the top, and the Q's below. In the last three years the Q's have NOT had a situation where both the RSI and MACD have diverged at the same time, they had a little MACD divergence leading into the pull back in June into July, and they had a little RSI divergence leading into the October 07' top. On the other hand, the SPY has had two double divergences, the first one from March into July of 07', which led into the pull back into August, and then again from May into June of this year, leading to the July pull back.

This is not some thing I trade off of, as this has been going on since August, even as we continue to grind higher, it's just that it bug's the crap out of me, there's definitely some thing that's not right with the world. Now, this two month high level consolidation, "COULD", be just that we are "working" off the over bought situation, before moving higher, but the previous examples don't support this, as we "usually" get, at a minimum, a quick, jarring move down, that complete's the working off of the over bought situation, which clear's us out for a continuation of the up move. I just refuse to believe that we are magically going to start moving up again, before we get some kind of minimal pull back first, sigh, but I've been wrong before, OFTEN!

On a price basis, the Q's are struggling right now with some prior resistance in the $44 "area", that goes back to August of 07' and July of 08', in the red circles, HOWEVER, should "they" decide to take us UP, we have NO resistance between 44 and $48, as the last move down in that area, in September of 08', left an air pocket, or VOID, but there was a lot of price action in that area from 07' and 08', so the move higher may not be straight up, IE, it could be a congestion zone. Once we get to $48, we start running into the TWO's, as there is resistance every two bucks, at $50 and again at $52. The SPY actually doesn't have any resistance until that 1200 level that I've been talking about since, what, July?

One last note before I go to the A/D's, the green line inside the green circle, way over to the left side, is the "TYPICAL" spread between the 50dma and 200dma, that is, when you back over years of charts, I only bring it up, because we have a pretty big spread right now, in the green circle on the right.

Both of the weekly Summation Index's have been diverging against price since September, again, not a very favorable situation, even worse is the fact that the $NASI fell below the July low, although the $NYSI may be consolidating at that low, eventually those have to move up to support a move higher. Also of interest is the divergence in the $NASI between the May to September high, it made a lower high, before making the recent lower low, while all the while, price has continued to grind higher, IE, we are going higher with fewer and fewer stocks participating.

The percentage of stocks above their 50dma in both the Nas and the NYSE supports the idea that we are moving higher with fewer and fewer stocks participating in the move, although both of them are at relatively high levels, although not close to being over bought.

Ok, most of the above is just shorter term "stuff", the MAIN, or MACRO indicator, is the CUMULATIVE Advance/Decline line's in the $NYSE, this is the big cheese, the Head Honcho, the big enchilada, the main man, etc etc etc, IE, this is the single most important indicator of the health of the market.

The GOOD part, is that we are doing just fine right now, both the daily, at the top, and the weekly, are continuing to move higher with price, they have BOTH confirmed the higher highs in the price action, that's the good part. The bad part is the damn divergences in the RSI and MACD again, ESPECIALLY the weekly MACD, that's the first down turn we've had since the March bottom. I don't particularly like the daily either, we've been creepy crawling higher the last couple of weeks, rather than thrusting, I mean, it just LOOKS like it's weakening to me.

This indicator is the ONE, SINGLE indicator, that tell's us if we are in trouble or not. The CLASSIC use of it, was the divergence we got at the 07' October TOP, in both the daily and weekly charts, as it failed to confirm the higher high's in the index's. For us to get a topping signal like that again, we would have to pull back, and then make NEW HIGHS in the index's, with the A/D's failing to confirm those highs. Obviously, that is a long way's down the road before any thing like that happens.

The last thing I'm looking at, and have been, is the FAKE bottom we had in March, NEVER, EVER, have we had a FINAL bottom in the markets, without the A/D's confirming it by making a higher low, while price is making it's final bear market low. What happen's, is we get a final flush out in the markets, while in the back ground, we are actually getting more stocks showing some strength, IE, there's some actual accumulation going on, during the final scary moments of the end of the world, we didn't get that in March, just a stupid blast off after our maaaaaavelous Government told the bank's they could take all the bad shit off their balance sheets.
Anyway, it make's me wonder that since we got no confirmation at the March bottom, might we get a similar move down off the highs??? IE, we don't make a lower high in the A/D's first, instead, we just blast down in a panic sell off?? Make's me wonder. We won't know any thing, of course, unless we get a pull back, and then make new highs, to see how it set's up. And the odd's of that happening are extremely small, for I've made my mind up, THAT THIS MARKET IS NEVER GOING TO PULL BACK!!! EVER!!!!!!

Weekly Sector And Industry Money Flows

The QQQQ had a horrible day friday, putting on one uuuugggillly looking bearish engulfing candle, this despite the other index's all having positive days, even the IWM. The strange part is that their TSV and MS are both still positive, and actully they look as good, or better, than the udder index's, hhhhmmm, very strange stuff. Maybe they play catch up to the the other one's next week. The really bad part of course, is that if you look back to the left, a bearish engulfing candle like this has started the last two corrections, and in looking even further back, this hold's up a LOT, and has marked the end of a lot of advances, definitely cause for some concern.

The sector laggards continue to be bonds, in the form of TLT, and any thing gold or metal, with Brazil, Autralia and China right above them.

The positive Industry Money flows are being led by Telecom and Airlines.

The negative Industry Money flows are being led by Construction, and some construction products, Investment banks, IE, Goldman, Oil and Gas drilling and some Regional banks.

Right at the top of the Russell 1000 Money flow's is stoggy old MSFT, HAH, surprised me. It actually has one of the best looking charts as well, with a solid high level base right under the $30 level, a break through that level, and, well, it goes higher, possibly a LOT higher, WHY, I have no stinking idea, but, that doesn't matter.

CELG has one of the worst looking charts of the Russell 1000 Money flow laggards, I checked a number of the other charts on that list, and a lot of them at least have some positive TSV flows, CELG is just sucking on all counts, I suppose it could bottom back down in that $50 "area", again.

Watch List for 12/11/09

4:30PM: YUCKO, what a lousy, slooooooooooowwwww, grinding, fricking, obnoxious, day, sigh. Anyway, I ran the sector list through a visual sort using the TSV, you can do that with Telecharts, and kind of surprising, stoggy old Utilities have been kicking the market's aaassss, which tell'm me, it's probably time to short them, hahahaha, HAH! All the "main" index's poked their heads up through the upper trend lines on the TSV today, as shown on the Q's. As far as a break out to the upside, the Q's look the best, should "they", decide to take us in that direction. We get the RETAIL numbers in the morning, a REAL market moooooooover, some baaaaaaaaddd (damn sheep) reports, and it could be an "oops", a good report, and we probably see new highs for the rally period.
By the by, you may notice that TLT showed up right at the bottom of that list, actually, by an overwhelming amount, IE, it's getting it's fricking assssss kicked right now, meaning, interest rates are going up, meaning, TBT has been moving higher. PERSONALY, even though the interest rate on it has moved up to exactly 4%, I "probably", won't get interested in it, until it hits "about" 82, or so, the TLT that is.
I should probably mention, that I have very few MACRO thoughts, BUT, if the BOND vigilante's are finally going to start taking it to that idiot Bernacke, and start taking interest rates higher, WHICH THEY SHOULD FOR FRICKING SAKE, it has enoooormus consequences for the country, as it would just about KILL the housing market, and with the GREATEST number of reset's coming up next year, could start another wave DOWN in housing prices, with the coming massive defaults. Just a pleasant little thought of mine.

FLS showed up on the bearish scan today, it's a wonderful outfit, so I'd be careful shorting it, BUT, it has some lousy TSV and Money flow's working for it, and, it's set up a head and shoulders, with the neckline "around" 94, should it get through that area, it "could", see 83 fairly quick, as it has nothing but clear air back down to that low in September.

Hahahaha, the market is WEIRD MAN, NYT showed up on the bullish scan, hahahahaha, roachey fricking city maaaaaannn! ANYWAY, the stupid thing is showing some decent TSV and Money flow on it, it has a queen-king-queen candle setup, with a rounded bottom (uuuuuummmmm, roooooooounded bottoms), and, "COULD", be good for some more.

Late PS: And, OH, YEA, short AOL with IMPUNITY!!! They are the WORST outfit, EVER, their software SUCKS, they are CROOKS, as they trap people into down loading the software, and then they charge them, and make it impossible for anyone to get through to them, and try and cancel the service, they are, well, SPIT SPIT, every thing that's WRONG with corporate America!

PS-SS: I was watching "The Nightly Business Report", on PBS tonight, and they showed a scene in Chicago, in which 150 Crane Operator's, showed up for, "ONE", job, in Canada, Alberta I think it was. Being a former General Contractor for, going on now, aaahhhh, 35 years, and having built a half dozen Medical Center's, I KNOW, that the Crane Operator's union, is almost as tight as the LongShoreman's union in Los Angeles Harbor, I probably haven't met ONE HAND full, of Union Crane Operator's, in my life time, I mean, just an unbelievable scene.

I only bring this up, because it's one of my favorite memories (that's all I have left of course, is, memories, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVwJNg4Wgq4 ), I watched this guy WALK, a 164' long, 3 foot wide by 4' deep, "Spancrete", concrete beam, out across a parking deck, with 210' of BOOM, laying almost horizontal, on one of my buildings, by WALKING, I mean, he couldn't lift it up to just set it down into the pockets, he had to do every thing he could, just to pick it up, and the beam was sitting like 20' lower than he was sitting. So what he does, is pick it up, like, a foot off the deck, and he starts bouncing it across the deck, to where the posts are, with the monkey's waiting for it, and they are only like 8' off the deck. The cool part was, is he is sitting on FILL, that's DIRT, that I had back filled into a wall, that was 23' high, and the further out he extends the BOOM, the deeper the front pads dig into the ground, while the farther OFF the ground, the rear pad's start coming, IE, they are in mid air. I mean, he starts to swing the thing, a foot off the deck, back and forth, while the entire Crane move's back and forth, off the front pads to the back pads, all 210' extended, and then lift's it up on a back swing, so when he goes into the forward swing, he yank's it up, and it set's right down on the pad's, sitting on the post's! I mean, well, you had to be there to appreciate it.

My point is, is that if the entire Crane Operator's Union is out of work in Chicago, well, you figure it out.

Watch List for 12/10/09

The Index's had a bullish reversal bar today, I suppose the massive two day drop is over with, sigh. The SPY, at the top, still has not broken back over the down trend line's on the TSV and MS. The Q's took out yesterday's low, but managed to hold that gap level from November, very cute looking, all the gains were in two wide range bars on the 60min chart, I suppose we "probably" can get more upside tomorrow.

MGM is typical of the bearish looking setups on that list.

TIE showed up on the bullish bars, I find it pretty interesting, if BA is going to actually get production going on the Dreamliner, then this thing should take off. The other's on the list could be interesting.

FLIR showed up on the Money flow leader's, it definitely looks like it wants to break out higher.

The devil himself, Goldman, GS, broke out over the down trend line on the 60min chart today, on the second to last bar of the day. I'm in a small position, but I feel that they may back test that trend line, or maybe even a retest of the recent lows, IE, you may be able to get it lower again, who knows.

Watch List for 12/09/09

The difference between the big S&P, at the top, and the SPY, is small, but may be significant. The $SPX has a support level just underneath it, at about 1090, or so, the SPY really has NO support until 108, which is 1080 on the $SPX, at the second line. I only bring it up, because the SPY would have to stop out in midair to find support at that level. ANYWAY, the main thing, both of them have huge support at that 108 level, in the form of the 50dma, should we get through that area, woooooooo wwwweeeeeee, we have a gap just above 107 that "could" slow us up, or provide support, but under that, and Sadie bar the fricking door, we have nothing but clear air back down to the November lows, we should see 103.50 faster than you can spell S&P. I just drew the little broadening top in on the SPY, cause Sysin told me to, it's bottom line also provides some support in that 108 "area".

The Q's have a descending triangle on the 60 min chart, since it's so OBVIOUS, "they", "probably" break us to the upside out of it, hahahahahaha, roach's!!! Anyway, I circled the "indicator's", just to show that they are NOT over bought, and still have room to the down side.

I was actually kind of really surprised at the lack of bearish bars that showed up in my scans tonight, I guess the gap down and then red bar took care of most of them. FST is typical of the bunch.

THERE'S ALWAYS A BULL MARKET SOME WHERE (God, I hate that, well, wad ever he is), IDTI look's pretty stinking good if you ask me, but, WHO'S ASKING!!!!

12/08/09

6:30am: Futures are down this morning, DOW about 93 points, there's a lot of different "REASONS" being thrown around by the "media" for the "cause" of the drop, but it doesn't matter, the main thought I have, is that after the upbeat earnings revision by FDX last night, and the pop the futures got after it, for us to be down this much in the morning, is NOT GOOD, the sentiment is rapidly changing from using every peice of bad news as a buying opportunity, to using every peice of good news, as a selling opportunity.
I'm kind of trapped on the wrong side this morning, as I sold more puts than calls going into the close last night, IE, I was WRONG, the funny part is that I was RIGHT, after the FDX pop last night, hahahahaha, talk about your emotional swings. Any way, all the sell's are just small positions in relation to my over all positions, so I have a lot of fire power left, which I plan on using with a vengence after the open, probably covering the sold calls, and adding more sold puts, IE, looking for a pop after the open.
I have Goldie up on that chart, because it suddenly dawned on me, I may be looking at this thing asssss backwards. I've been looking for a chance to get LONG in it, as it is the best financial outfit in the world, and all that, but the funny part is, is that I've mentioned several times that it can't be good that the best TECH stock in the world, AAPL, and the best financial stock in the world, GS, have been pulling back for a month or two, while the market has tried to grind higher. We CAN'T GO HIGHER, with out them.
ANYWAY, if I look at it, it actually has a slanted head and shoulders formation on it, with the neckline being the line at point "A", and it's at an EXTREMELY critical point right now, as it's sitting right on that neckline, and also it's sitting right on the GAP from September, circle 1, around 162.50. Now, this thing COULD bounce from here, this would be a LOGICAL area for it to find support. The PROBLEM, is that if it fails to hold here, it doesn't have a hell of a lot of support under it, it has clear air under it in circle "2", down to 157.50, and then it fall's into a HUGE air pocket, VOID, or more CLEAR AIR, in circle "3", which is the dumb ass run up the markets made off of this EXACT SAME STOCK'S EARNINGS in July, this void goes back down to under 150, before we hit a huge congestion area.
I only bring this up, because if GOLDIE is a leading proxie for the "market", the market has all the same VOID's and POCKET's and stuff, sitting under it, as GS is now getting into. PLUS, in looking at some of the DOW laggards, AA, GE and BAC, they have pretty much the same configuration as GS. I'm not recommending to short GS, that's up to you, as it's to manipulated and whippy for me, I'm just saying that some thing funny is going on here, and personally, I plan on protecting and covering my ass for awhile.
Good luck out there today.

Watch List for 12/08/09

Here's some long and short swing trade idea's from the MSW daily charts. That SPY chart at the top looks lower to me, but who am I to say, it held the 20dma today, I'd short it if it breaks that, but it probably ain't gonna happen tomorrow, futures are higher tonight after FDX raised guidance.

Historical PMO Crosses

7:00pm: Tom Bulkowski has changed his blog a little, I like it, http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html . I like his look at the week ahead, and then down at the very bottom of the page, he has a post entitled "The Markets: A longer view". Good stuff.

Since I'm snowed in, from an "early" storm (it was supposed to hit tomorrow), I'm reading, and Carl Swenlin caught my eye with this article on his monthly PMO, Price Momentum Osc, http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/1204.html , so I went into doddling mode.
TradeStation doesn't have a PMO, but, it does have a P, as in Price OSC, and an MO, as in Momentum, and when you put the two of them on the chart, they come up with a similar look to it, the MO is at the bottom, with the P above that, and then a price chart of the INDU, since I can only get historical data on the INDU back to the 1920's, and not the SPX, so hence I used the INDU. Also, Dr. McHugh commented in one of his advertisements today, about his "Long Term" trend indicator, which is a cross of the 20/40 Month moving average's. I also inserted a 10 Month moving average, which is a study of a few market technician's, who claim it is a great long term moving average to use, to determine if we are in bear or bull markets. Personally, I find that a cross of the 10 month average, the GREEN line, over/under the 20 Month moving average, the BLUE line, is a better cross over idea than the 20/40 month cross over, just my personal opinion.

The reason I'm bringing this whole thing up, is because the "P" indicator is doing a cross over of the ZERO line as I write, which is the first cross to the up side, since the end of the last bear market in 03'. By the by, I should bring up that the bottom chart is the current chart, the TOP chart is the 1920-30's, the next chart down is the 70's, and the third chart down is the 80's.

The next thing I did, was draw a RED VERTICAL line, during all those periods in the chart's, in which the "P" crossed to the up side, above the ZERO line, following significant drop's, or some times called, Bear Markets. I found the results kind of interesting.

One interesting thing, was the current angle of the slope, of the 20 month MA, there's only three other period's close to this severe of a down angle, 1931 into 1933, 1971, and 1974 into 1975. I also looked at the "Spread", between the 10ma and the 20ma, when the "P" crossed the ZERO line, we currently have the largest spread ever, but of course, we also have the HIGHEST price ever, so you'd have to do a percent difference, which I'm not inclined to take the time to do, bottom line, is they are all pretty much close to the same thing.

Despite my over all BEARISH funnymental out look, as I think that the current period we are in, IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT THAN ANY OTHER PERIOD, I want to look at some conclusions, based on as much OBJECTIVITY, that I can do. Number one, the "MO", always crosses the ZERO line BEFORE the "P", and before the cross over of the 10 and 20 ma's, and as such, I consider it a pretty interesting demarkation point of bear and bull markets. Number two, when the "P", or, if you want to use the better indicator, the "MO", cross over the ZERO line, we ALWAYS get an extended period of positive prices. Well, ok, not always, but the periods when it didn't work, were in "FLAT" periods, when price was moving side ways, not in severe up and down movements. Here are a few time frames, of how many months we got, of positive price action, after the "P", crossed above the ZERO line:

1933: 9 months of rally, followed by a decent 6 month pull back, leading to new highs in 1937

1939: Lousy, side ways for 17 mo., before a significant pull back into the bottom in 1942

1943: 6 months up, a very slight pull back, then up into 1946 highs

1963: flat for 2 months, then a HUGE run into 1966 highs

1967: Up only 2 months, then a six month decent pull back, then new highs in 1968

1971: Up for only 3 months, then a seven month decent pull back, then new highs in 1973

1975: IMMEDIATE 3 month pull back, very slight, then new highs in 1976

1978: A flat period, that led to new highs in 1981

1982: 6 more months of rally, into a 1983 high, pull back in 84', followed by the bull market into 2000 (with a little blip in 87' and 98')

2003: 5 more months of rallies into the 04' high, followed by a lengthy, gradual pull back,which led to the 2007 highs.

A couple of observations, number one, you could pick up a LOT of change, by using the "MO" rather than the "P", as you pick up a minimum of TWO months, and a maximum of FOUR months of extra gains. Number two, in just a casual observation of the numbers above, we "USUALLY" get additional gains for two to six months after the cross over, accept for 37' and 75', and possibly the little flat period in 78', BUT IN ALL CASE'S, we get another PULL BACK, before making new highs, so the odd's are very great, that, yea, we may continue the rally for another six month's, but the odd's are ALMOST 100%, that we have another pull back coming, before going to new highs after that pull back.

Here's some of the rough numbers of the percentage gain when we break above the ZERO line, and then the percentage of the pull back:

33': 25 - 20

39': (41%)

43': 16 - 14

63': 2 - 7

67': 6 - 14

71': 10 - 18

75': 0 - 12

78': 25 - 25

82: 30 - 18

03': 14 - 11

There was some interesting observations when doing the numbers above, and it was not the averaging of the numbers, but if you take out the dump in 39', the average gain was "about" 14%, and the average pull back was "about" 15.5%, so the pull back, in GENERAL, is larger than the gains you make after the break above the ZERO line.

The most interesting thing I found was that in EVERY case, EVERY ONE, 100% of the time, at some point, we came back and tested the bar that broke out over the ZERO line, OR, in five cases, at some point we went LOWER than the break out bar. I'm excluding 1939 of course, as we never went up off the bar, although we came back in 10 months and double topped at that bar, before heading into the abyss in 1942.

Now, what I want to do, is throw out all the years, that we DID NOT rally straight up, to where we got the cross over of the "P", IE, I want to see what my odd's are, only from the patterns that most closely resemble the one we are in now. I'm almost hesitant to use 1933, for as you can see, we actually had a rally off the 32' bottom, that was followed by a 41% bear market into the higher low in 1933, before rallying into the 1933 cross of the ZERO line, hmmmmm, it doesn't really fit the pattern. I'm also going to throw out 78', we did not rally into that cross over.

The rally after the 37' bear market led to a four year bear market almost from the bar that made the "P" cross.

The 43' cross was "tested" in 10 months, and then led to basically a bull market into the 62' bear.

The 63' cross led to an immediate two month, 7 percent correction, that led to all time highs in 66', however, we came back and broke that bar in 1970.

The 67' cross had a one month rally, then pulled back 14% for six months, before making all time highs in 69'.

The 71' cross rallied for two months, before a 18%, six month pull back, that then led to all time highs in 73'.

The 75' cross had an immediate 3 month, 12% pull back, before rally to all time highs in 76'.

The 82' cross led to the bull market of 82-2000, however, we came back to test the cross over bar 19 months later.

The 03' cross rallied for four months, then came back and tested the cross over bar 12 months later.

So, just for my own personal perspective, I DO NOT, have to buy the market here, at some point down the road, there is almost a 100% chance, I will see these prices again. I could miss out on a 25-30% rally here, it happened three times before. There's a five in eight chance, or 63%, that once this bar completes this month, we will have a pull back with in two to three months, that will go down any where from 11 to 25% (possibly MORE this time, if it is indeed, DIFFERENT). Once the correction ends, where ever that may be, and, we go back up and take out what ever high we make after this current cross over, there is a 100% chance, that we will make new all time highs after that.

The major fly in the ointment (there always is), is that we had THREE TESTS, of the cross over bar, two of them, 34' and 84', NEVER saw those numbers again (YET!), the other, 04', had a three year rally to new all time highs, although we broke it the past year. The GOOD part about those TESTS, is that it took a YEAR, or MORE, before the test was made, IE, we showed some reasonable strength, with a fairly mild pull back into the retest, and "should" be, identifiable. If we don't start a major pull back IMMEDIATELY after this month, or by the latest February or March, then we are probably in the long drawn out retest senario.

Just a little note, the "MO" has a small hook on it right now.