12/18/09 EOD

The only thing I like about snow, is you can tell who's been walking around, hahahahahahaha!! I took this shot on my walk this afternoon, I'll give you a hundred guess's as to what those tracks are from, and the first 99 DON'T Count! The boy's from North Carolina outta know, I think they have a bunch of them in that State.

It's about a month to late, but it's Bald Eagles, eeeeeeeerrrrrrr, I mean, WILD TURKEYS (of which, I'm enjoying some right now, hahahahaha)! I took this shot of them in a field, coming down off the mountain.

CNBC said we had RECORD VOLUME on the NYSE today, what a crock of shit!!!! We didn't even get as much volume as the sell off yesterday! Wad ever, the stupid thing looks higher to me, at least, for next week it does, and the week after that, and then............................ aaahhhhhhhh, well, I'll deal with the first week of January, when we get there, there's to many stinking bowl games between here and there, to worry about that!

2:05pm: Geeze, what an amazing day, I mean, for a Friday, I almost NEVER do any thing on Fridays, or Mondays for that matter. Anyway, we continued down after the post this morning, the Q's kind of stopped in mid-air, but the SPY stopped at a test of the lows from 12/9, at that blue line on the top chart. So we rally out, and the Q's double top it back at the gap fill that it stopped at this morning, put on a little hanging man candle, at the first arrow on the left, then pull back for a bar, like they are going to fail. They then blast off, and go up and fill the gap from two days ago, at that thin green line. They then have a shallow little pull back for 45 minutes, then go back up, and double top it again, at that gap fill line, putting on ANOTHER hanging man candle, at the right arrow. This, going into the last hour, on a friday, so I'm thinking, AH HA!, sell offf into the close, setting up the big "M", never to see these lofty heights again, HEY, you know EXACTLY where your stop is, right over the highs. Sigh, it worked for a half hour, and then on the change over into the last half hour of the day, while sitting just above the 20ma and the VWAP, there was a little dinky gap up, and that was it, blast off into the close.

The SPY was almost as much fun, the thing get's those two stupid wide range bars off the bottom, and then stops, EXACTLY, on that gap from 12/9, and pulls back into that trend line from 11/27, where it found some "support".

I never make money on fridays, which is why I tend to stay away from them, but today was pretty decent stuff.

I GUESS, SIGH, we probably get out typical monday gap up, if they are in a holiday mood, they may give us a little Santa rally into Christmas next week. We shall see.

9:30AM: Like, WOW MAAAAAANNN, the open just totally stoked me out this morning. I was kind of reading, like the peice of shit down at the bottom, and I knew the Q's were going to gap up, because of that short squeeze in that one toy maker, and I just assumed the rest of them would to, but when they opened, I was kind of caught off guard when the SPY opened FLAT, I mean, the A/D's were REALLY strong, as shown in the top chart, but the SPY took off south on it's first five minute bar, kind of dragging the Q's down with it. We kind of bounced back up going into the first turn around period at 10ET, but the SPY was UNABLE to get back over the open, and immediately turned south, with the A/D's going with it.

The Q's reacted MUCH better, which helped my positions a LOT, as I began covering some short puts, and when we hit the turn around time, the Q's got REALLY interesting. What they did, was fuzzy top tail that second 15min bar in the bottom chart, which just happened to be right on the gap fill from two days ago, and the HIGH had failed to fill yesterday's gap by two lousy cents. The next bar then began to wallow, setting up another fuzzy tail top, and that was it, we couldn't over come the weakness in the rest of the market, and the Q's actually broke down below the open, very interesting stuff.

At the time I took these pictures, the SPY had just hit support on a lower trend line that goes back to 11/27, that's on that 60min chart in the middle, whether we hold here or not, hmmmm, yea, that will be the key, won't it.

In keeping with the chaos in the markets, GOLD was higher, and the DOLLAR was also HIGHER, and bond's were actually DOWN, very strange stuff indeed.


You know, I happened to see the woman on TV yesterday, demonstrating the killer pull lines on the famous BLIND GATE, hahahahahahahahahahaha,

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/healthmatters/2009/12/15/strangulation-risk-prompts-massive-recall-of-window-blinds/ , my god, if that isn't the STUPIDEST thing I've EVER SEEN!!! She's like holding the doll five feet off the ground, showing how the baby can get entwined in them, and choke to death, this has happened like five times in the last ten years, so we are going to spend billions more, to FIX, the BLINDS!!!! This is what happens, when you DOUBLE the number of Washington BEAUROCRAP'S, making over $150,000, in just over the course, OF THE LAST YEAR!!! THEY HAVE NOTHING ELSE TO FRICKING DO, BUT WASTE FRICKING TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm tellin ya, probably one of the single stupidest thing's I've ever seen.

Watch List for 12/17/09

WOOOOOOOO WEEEEEEEEE, I ran the ETF's through the MSW tonight, and it came up with one, ONE, buy, on the daily charts, and that's the GOOD part, the weekly scan below has NO NEW BUYS ON IT! I don't think I've ever seen the MSW do that, especially on the weekly scans. Anyway, it loves the Kokusuai Index, WHAT EVER THE HELL THAT IS! Even with that one buy, it has a confimed SELL on it, on the weekly chart. It hates the foreign currencies, like FXA and FXF, biotech, Coal, small caps, and NasDaq banks.

The weekly just looks uuuugggiiillly, it hates ANY THING, with CHINA in it's name, it must have four ETF's with shorts on China, it also hate's emerging markets, EEM, gold miners, nuclear energy, global materials, and Oil, the USO.

RIMM and ORCL beat earnings tonight, which is pushing the Q's higher in the after hours, Q's were back up above 44 the last time I looked, up about 20 cents, after that UGLY day today. The MSW has a BUY on the Q's from 3 days ago on the daily chart, and has NOT stopped out, YET.

Watch List for 12/17/09

Whoop Whoop Whoop Whoop Whoop (that's Curly of the Three Stooges after the head slap), WOW, there was hardly any reaction to the FOMC release, PERIOD, I actually thought I'd lost my internet connection, hahahahaha, my god, it's just horrible! There was no three wave move that I could see, as it didn't move enough to make a "wave", the release was at the yellow arrow. We did sell off a little into the last half hour, when we did the only decent thing all day, other than the open, when the sell off stopped EXACTLY on the gap fill from yesterday, NOW, THAT, is cool stuff, hahahahaha! I actually loved the open as well, as we rallied nicely the first half hour, which allowed me to unload some sold puts, IE, sell the rips, and sell the DIPS, HOWEVER, we stopped just short of that 44.73 high we've made for the rally, I mean, well, I don't know what to say. I'm not sure what will happen tomorrow, after CITI screwed all the gambler's tonight, and priced the offering at $3.15, I know a lot of people were expecting it in the 3.50 "area", HEY, when you gamble with some thing like that, you get what you deserve!

SBUX has a decent little bearish reversal bar on it, it had a lousy bar yesterday, and followed it up with a WORSE bar today. HOWEVER, this stock has been strong, although TSV is getting close to the ZERO line, I could see it going down another point, or so. Some of the others in the list look interesting as well, like HON, they would be listed under "True".

Not many interesting bullish reversal bars today, CFFN looks interesting though, it had a nice bullish engulfing bar today, and both TSV and MS have been exploding to the upside.

Another FOMC Day

4:30AM: God, I hate it when I get up at 4am, it just ruin's my fricking day, as I'm usually DONE before the stupid market opens up, 3 1/2 hours later, SIGH, wad ever!

Anyway, this is FED day, the FOMC announcement comes out at 2:15pm ET, and in keeping with traditional mornings on FOMC days, the futures are UP, DOW about 60 points, very typical stuff, depending on some unexpected reaction to the morning economic news, we get the CPI in two hours, we, usually, go up a little after the open, and then drift into the FED release, which brings about my favorite day trading pattern of all time, the three waves after the release, here's some more details on it, http://cluelessqtrader.blogspot.com/2009/04/42909.html .

So I'm looking around the WackoSphere, and all I'm seeing, is all this talk about the, "BOX". The, "BOX", of course, is the range we've been in for the last month and a half, two months actually, if you count the fact that the October high is just about EXACTLY in the middle of the box, as shown on the SPY chart at the top. Now, I've done a study before, looking at FED days, and they have a "TENDENCY", to be the start of new "TRENDS", as we almost always get some huge volume and volatility after the release, which provides enough fire power to break one way or Da Udder. NOBODY, is expecting any CHANGE, in interest rate's, or, in the wording, which is the most important part of the release. EVENTUALLY, of course, the FED is going to change it, I doubt if today will be the day, but when they DO change it, there's only ONE WAY they can do it, and that's that they will raise rates. It cracks me up, because every body is scared to death that they will raise rate's, and ruin the economy, hahahahahahaha, that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard, for as I've shown before, the markets go UP when the FED raises rates, and goes DOWN, when the FED lowers rates, the reason being perfectly obvious, that they only lower rates when the economy is sucking the big one, and raise rate's when they are trying to rein in run away growth. I did a column on it, showing the results since, like 1990, you might be able to find it by typing some thing in the search bar above. You could say, well, look Cucca, the markets have gone up since the FED lowered interest rates, well, NO, the markets crashed last year, when they started lowering interest rates, and they have gone UP, since they STOPPED lowering them, look it up yourself, very typical reaction.

Anyway, eventually, when they start rasing rate's, the market does almost the exact same thing each time, we crash right away after the release, and then a day or two later, we start going up, cool stuff. Personally, I hope they raise the fricking thing's back to 18%, my trading days will definitely be over, as I will be parked in bonds for the rest of my life.

SIGH, this two month range has sure been a bitch, and I'm afraid, we may not really break out until after the first of the year, double SIGH! BUT, when we do break, it should be a terriffic move, wooooo hooooo, it will be one of the few times I will take a break out. You can actually start taking it at the extremes of the "BOX", and take stops on fake break outs, for quite a while, for the "MOVE", is going to be large enough, to more than make up for the numerous stops. The pump this morning is typical of how obnoxious the market has been, for if you look at the SPY chart, with the little gap down Doji yesterday, we actually have an Island Reversal, or Abandoned Baby, candle formation, or Evening Star, which are all extremely bearish formations, hahahahahahaha, so, what they do off of that, WITH NO NEWS, is take us to Da Moon this morning, hahahahaha, ROACHEY MF'ERS!!! Typical bull shit, wad ever.

I have the chart of JPM up there, because, numero Uno, they are the biggest and best of the Banks, and numero Doce, that is one uuuuugggggiiillly looking chart! It's almost exactly typical of a lot of the banks, and the banking ETF's, like XLF, it has a head and shoulders on it, I didn't draw it in, and it's sitting down at the bottom of the pattern, with it's neck line around 40 bucks. Now, the REALLY, bad part, is that if it lose's that neck line, it has nothing but clear air, or a VOID, or Air Pocket, back down to the July lows, when the blast off started off the GS earnings. I highly doubt, that the markets, are going to be able to move up, without the financials going along for the ride. There's always the UNREAL chance that we break higher out of this formation, SIGH, as they all have a nice down trend line on them, like the green one I drew on JPM, so the pattern would be negated if we break out over that line.

Watch List for 12/16/09

I forgot to mention TIE, down below, this, of course, is a play on BA and the "Dreamliner", it had a funky break out failure bar today, obviously a sell the news type of thingey. BUT, it's broken out over a trend line that goes back to June, actually gapping over it yesterday on a big volume day. Any weakness back down to that break out point around 10.75 "COULD" be a buying opportunity.

I ran the Sector list through a sort with the Money Stream indicator, Bonds, in the form of the TLT, continue to lag, while the dollar is continuing to get some pretty big inflows.
The Q's had a break out failure bar on it today, we keep getting big seller's coming in each time we try to break out, I'M SURE, eventually they will get tired of fighting it, hahahaha, HAH! We tried to test the intraday high of 44.73 from 7 days ago, but came up a little short with a high of 44.67. Both TSV and MS have NOT broken below their MA's, BUT, they are right on the verge, be careful with this thing.

I ran the Russell 3000 through the MSW on a daily scan, it like SNDK, and Wally World, WMT. For shorts, both FMC and BBT have very nice candles on them today, in FACT, SHORT any thing, with "BANK" in it's name, XLF, KBE, BKX are all looking pretty bad, and have lousy TSV and MS flows on them. Which reminds me, I stopped out of GS, dirty RAT!

OOPS!!!

2:20PM: We were just kind of mopeing around into the close, down just slightly on the Q's, when GE came out at their analyst meeting with their opening statements, they opened by saying their Capital division was going to make money, every thing is Honkey Dorey, we are going to knock the ball off the cover............................................................................. IN A COUPLE OF YEARS, AFTER WE LOSE OUR ASSSSSSSS NEXT YEAR!!!!! The arrow was after the first sentence out of their mouth, they reacted really well to that, we, aaaahhhhhh, didn't react so well to the rest of it. We actually had a decent rally the last 15 minutes, in the Q's any way, as the head of the NYSE was running around the floor, telling everyone to take the market up, to keep up the illusion, that bad news, is REALLY, good news! So, they did.

Futures are down this morning, DOW about 50 points, as we've been dealt a series of OOPS:

OOPS: Inflation came in hotter than expected: Core PPI .5% VS .2% expected, PPI 1.8% vs .8% expected.
OOPS: Empire Manufacturing 2.55 vs 24 EXPECTED, WOW, that's REALLY a BAAAAAAD number.
Double OOPS: The largest electronic retailer, Best Buy, warned that their profit margins are going to get squezzed, because of the discounting for Holiday sales, hahahahahahahahahaha!

I'm tellin Ya, it's just AAAALLLLL GOOD, ain't it!!!!! The STREET would have you believe so!

Have fun out there today.

Watch List for 12/15/09

Kind of a disturbing image on my walk this afternoon, obviously some deer is struggling, as they usually just leave a hole in the snow, as they bounce along, this one was dragging it's feet. There was no blood around, heck, maybe it's just tired.

Hello! HELLO!! HELLO!!! Just checking to see if anyone was around, if I hadn't of brought my full alotment of two shares of the Q's going into the close, they would have had less volume than the half day after Thanksgiving!!!! GEEZE!! I didn't check, but it had to be the lowest full day volume of the year.

Anyway, never short a dull market, those two arrows on the Pivot chart at the top, point to our "TEST" of the closing high for the rally from March, 44.60, hahahahaha! That was on Nov. 17 I think, we tested it this morning, and got REEEEEEJECTEDDDDD, then tried again going into the close, failed to hold it again, but finished with a green bar. We are actually NOT that over bought on most of the time frames, I included my McCellan 60min. chart, we still have room to go above the +100 level. I used to trade that thing, with the "system" I have on it, but it stopped working, not completely, it's just that the equity curve stopped going up up and away. I didn't check the equity curve on it, maybe I should, it might be working again.

I ran a VISUAL sort of the MS, Money Stream, on a WEEKLY basis, to see if there were any decent charts in which they were getting very positive money flows, and JCI looks GREAT! WOW, if it can get over $28, I'm telling Ya, it's going to see $28.01 LICKETY SPLIT LIKE! Some of the other's on that list don't look to bad, mostly, as unreal as it may seem, the Realty Trusts, like SLG, VNO and EQR, geeze, hard to believe.

On the short side, SFD looks kind of interesting, it's got negative MS, and trying to go negative on the TSV, and is setting up "THE BIG "M"", under the neckline of the M and it see's $13.64 pretty quick. Other's that look interesting include HOG, WAG, AMG, Oh HELL, just short any thing that end's in a "G"!

I like this, GSI, THE GENERAL, as they advertise on the tube. it's having big MS and TSV surge's, and it broke over the down trend line from over a year ago, P. Worden mentioned it in his notes. It has resistance above it pretty close here, so it may pull back here soon, but if it pull's back and holds above $4, or back test's the down trend line, I'd consider it a buy, just for ME of course. It has more resistance just below $8, but after that it has NO RESISTANCE back up to the $14 "area".

Hahahaha, FOX is having a field day with Obama Banana, he's about to sign the $1.1 TTTRRRRILLLIOOONN dollar Pork Spending Bill. I mean, all I ever do is watch cartoons, like, The Penquin's of Madagascar, and Back At The BarnYard, but even I REMEMBER, him saying, that he WOULD NEVER, sign any bill, with PORK or EAR MARK'S in it, and of course, THIS STINKING THING IS JUST LOOOOOOAAAADDDED WITH THEM!!!!!!!

CAN YOU BELIVE WE HAVE AN FOMC MEETING THIS WEEK!!??? YUCKO!!!!

12/14/09

7:00am: Rob Hanna has a nice post this morning about the coming week, http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/ , the December option's expiration week has been EXTREMELY, positive, for a number of years.
Being the flake I yam (at least I admit it), I am going to be LONG oriented until after the first of the year, at which point I intend to SOH for awhile, and see what happens. Futures are up slightly this morning, hopefully we get a little gap fill after the open, which I may use to sell more puts, and maybe cover some of my short call's that expire this week, just kind of clean up stuff. BreakPoint Trade's came out with a pretty positive Elliott Wave count on the 60min chart's of the index's this weekend, and it is my own experience that expiration weeks are "generally" positive. My favorite senario on the bullish count, is that we break out over the current highs, and then come back to "TEST", the break out point, that would be very cool.

The chart of the Q's at the top, is so easy, it's scary, hahahaha! It's obviously a high level consolidation, and a break over the highs, in the 44.50 "area", THAT HOLDS, will lead to a gain that is equal to the depth of the consolidation, IE, an "equal move", which is about a point and a half, so I could expect a minimum target up to about $46 by the end of the year.
Hopefully, most of the fire works will happen this week, as, of course, next week start's the Holiday season, and as hard as it is to believe, Volume will probably get even LOWER, and make trading even more difficult on an intraday basis.
Anyway, that's my plan, for right now.

PS: I kind of like the look of the small cap's, IWM, I "may" take a long position in them.
PSS: Beside's the pair trade on STT and BEN, I kind of like the thought of a pair trade with IWM and KBE, the banking index, short KBE and long IWM, as kind of a hedge play.

Weekly MSW Swing Trade Update for 12/14/09

I'm having a white out blizzard here right now, I can't even see across the street, and my lights are surging, like the power's going to go off, so I'm posting this without comments for now, in case I lose power.
The MSW came up with exactly four new buy, and four short signals, on the weekly charts of the ETF's, again, I can't emphasize enough the extremely LOW number of signals being generated by the MSW right now, I mean, it just HATE'S THE MARKET (WHO DOESN'T)!!!
Anyway, it want's to buy some 30 year bonds, hhhmmmmm, the software must be a fixed incomer, just like me, it also wants to buy FAN, which is in complete contrast to the short below, on the weekly chart of TAN, which mean's the software thinks that wind energy is going to win out over solar, so buy FAN and short TAN, which seem's like a reasonable pair's trade to me. I've been listening to a solar analyst on Taking Stock for a few months now, who's been railing against the solar stocks, talking about the over supply issues, lack of government participation, etc etc etc, he has a target of $80 on FSLR, so he's pretty bearish on the group.

The MSW only came up with two new buy signals on the weekly charts of the ETF's, both of which are those low volume weird ones, on the short side it seems to hate commodities, gold, metals and alternative energy, in the form of TAN, one signal you can't see there, is that it has a confirmed short on UUP, so it still hate's the dollar, despite the recent rally.

The MSW came up with 31 new buy signals on the Russell 3000, and only 19 short signals. I recognize several stocks on that buy list, WLT, C, WFMI, PZZA, COG, BR, ZZ, KIRK, MIR, FTEK. MWW has kind of an interesting looking bull flag on it, and FTEK "may", have found a bottom for now, but of course, I like the shorts better, hahahaha, although personally I won't short banana's, CQB, as I've heard rumblings from some producer's about a "disease", hahaha, yeeeaa, rrriiiigghhhttt, it's called the "rip us off disease", as they like to use shit like that to raise prices, good luck on that one. SIGM has a good R/R short, as it has bear flagged out to a long term down trend line, it may resume it's downward move here, and your stop would be over that trend line.

It came up with 27 new buys on the weekly charts of the Russell 3000, and 43 new shorts, fairly bearishishly inclined. I don't think I recognize one stock on the buy side, SO is moving because of the recent rally in Natural gas I guess, WAT has a decent little bottom pattern on it. On the short side, I LOVE the chart on AVP, it looks like it could fall quite a ways, and I guess the software hate's the WWE as much as I do. Other shorts that are not shown, but look interesting to me, include SEE, BRCM, VIRL, MTN, ACV, DOW, FDO, BOOM, INCY.

I don't know how that magic search thing on Google works, but I managed to get the full Barron's interview with Doug Kass here, http://bit.ly/8BQd6R , as always, little Dougie is EXTREMELY interesting, especially like his long/short pairs trade he's doing, short BEN and long STT. If you can't pick it up off that link, just paste in "Skeptical That Growth Will Take Root", in Google, and do your own search.