Mid-Week Swing Trade Update

Hahaha, I have to tell you a funny story, and why I'M QUITTING TOMORROW!!! I was sitting here today, half awake, watching BaBar, and out of the corner of my eye, one of those blinking, fricking, annoying lights was flashing on my position sheet on the TS platform, and what caught my eye, was it was GREEN!!!!! So I check it out, and it's ENER, hahahaha, I took a "STOP POSITION" in this thing a few months ago, my "STOP POSITION", is an option position I take in a SPECULATIVE stock, where I buy in the money calls or puts, where the total position cost doesn't exceed what I would take, for a NORMAL stop, IE, I take it and forget about it. ANYWAY, it was for January 10 strike calls, so my normal MO, is that with just over a week to go on the option, I say THANK YOU VERY MUCH, and get the HELL out of Dodge!!! WHICH I DID!! Hahahaha, I'm still laughing, BUT IT AIN'T FRICKING FUNNY! I'm watching Fast Money after the close today, and that fricking Jon Najarian came on, he's the big guy's older brother, Pete, and he's doing the 10 FOR 10 segment, where they recommend a stock for the next 10 years. Hahahahahahaha, YOU ALREADY KNOW WHAT IT WAS, RIIIIGGGHTTTT!!! That's it, I'M DONE, I QUIT, the stupid thing busted for like 60 or 70 cents while I was watching the ticker go by! SIGH!

ANYWAY, I ran a mid week scan, just in the REMOTE case, I might NOT quit tomorrow. I high lighted some of the ones that look half ass decent, do me a favor, and short the shit out of PCLN, if EVER there was a "DISCRETIONARY" stock, that has to be it! I only high lighted WTW because it was one of the biggest "baggers" I ever got, like, I don't know, 4, 5, 6 years ago??? By the by, I shopped at FDO tonight, YEEEAAAA, we have a Family Dollar here in this one horse stinking town, and a brand new ALCO is just about to open! For some reason, all these fancy dancy Wall Street pricks seem to think this town is starting to grow! Which means, I'M CLOSE TO GETTING OUTTA HERE! Boy, are they screwing the ONE store we had here, for decades, Mike's Grocery store, luckily, none of those two have groceries, but they totally have screwed him out of the other discretionary crap.

I would have shown the ETF scan, but the software hate's the stupid ETF's, and has no NEW signals.

My Pal BZ Trader, http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/ , had an excellent post tonight.

1/6/10

2:00pm: The Q's closed with a BOF, Break out failure bar, today, that's where we make new highs, fail to hold those highs, and then close lower on the day, it "appears" that the final settlement was 46.14, which is a close under yesterday's low. If you are wondering, this is just a WONDERFUL stinking day, under ORDINARY circumstances, this is a sell the world setup, but, SIGH, those fricking roach's at Goldman will probably gap us over todays highs at the open tomorrow!!!! SIGH, wad ever.

7:00am: OOPS! Futures are down slightly this morning, DOW about 20 points, as we got some AG-gravation last night and this morning, with both MOS and MON missing earnings, plus the ADP report came in higher than "expected". In a "surprise", MON actually LOST money last quarter, a "HINT" of what's to come???? And how can an $85 stock LOSE money (oops, excuse me, it's $82 now, hahhaha), over priced roach!
Anyway, in looking through the articles about the miss, I can't figure out if these two articles are looking at the same stock or NOT: Monsanto Delivers on Q1 Guidance, Confirms Full-Year Earnings Per Share and Cash Flow Targets , Monsanto swings to a quarterly loss , looking at the first one, you'd think every thing was just all Honkey Dorey, hahahahaha!

Anyway, that brings up my rag on Bloomberg, Bloomberg had an article on the P/E for the S&P 500, saying it's the highest since 2002, http://bit.ly/4CFPwH , the only reason I bring it up, is because, number ONE, I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT PARAMETERS THEY ARE USING, and number TWO, THEY ARE OBVIOUSLY, IGNORING THE LAST TWO YEARS!!! This bull shit just bust's my ass, and get's me flying off the stinking hook, I mean, in the article they say it's trading at 24 times, BUT I CAN FIND NO STINKING NUMBERS THAT FIT THAT!!!

I mean, we ALL know, that the S&P LOST money in 08', for the first time ever, and ended up with a P/E some where in the 180's, just slightly above 02', and when I go to FINVIZ, http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=121&f=idx_sp500&o=-pe&r=481 , and then down load the numbers into EXCEL, I find that 122 fricking companies had NO EARNINGS in 09', IE, they LOST money, and when you sum up the combined P/E's for the rest of them, it comes out to 29.52. So THEN, I summed up the PROJECTED EARNINGS for this year, 25 of the companies HAVE NO PROJECTED EARNINGS FOR NEXT YEAR, IE, they are PROJECTED TO LOSE MONEY, and when you total the other 475 outfit's, I come up with 19.05, still VERY high, but much less than what Bloomberg is talking about (of course, that doesn't include the 25 that will lose money, I don't know how high of a P/E you assign to them, when they have no "E").

I mean, HOW FRICKING HARD CAN IT BE, FOR AN OUTFIT LIKE BLOOMBERG, TO COME UP WITH A P/E, THAT MAKE'S SENSE (or at least, tell us how they arrived at the bull shit). This shit happens all the time, you keep hearing different numbers, and in TRUTH, there is only ONE number, well, WHAT IN THE HELL IS IT?????????? FRICKING ROACH'S!!!!

Anyway, PROJECTIONS are GREAT, just like in 08', when the "ANALYST" PROJECTED that the S&P was going to MAKE 84 dollars, on average, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! That's ABOUT what "they" are PROJECTING now, which is what the bull shiter's use to try and convince the retail's to cough up some of that 2, 3, all the way up to 7 TRRRRIIILLLLION dollars of money, sitting on the side lines in Bond and Money Market mutual funds, that "they" keep talking about (it keep's getting higher every time I hear some one mention that phoney money), that is going to drive the market's to new all time highs when it come's flooding in off the side lines, probably, BEFORE THE END OF THIS MONTH, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Hahahaha, geeze, Dr. Robert McHugh was certainly in a cheerful mood this morning, in the latest email he sent me, trying to get me to sign up again:

"Let's talk about fundamentals for a moment. Another horrid housing number arrived today, on top of yesterday's awful construction figure. Of course, the mouthpieces for the mega-finance companies and their surrogates, the Central Planners, gave this news very little attention, instead doing their level best to get excited about the economy as if jawboning prosperity will accomplish it. The National Association of Realtors reported that its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements fell an incredible 16 percent in November from October. It was the first decline in seven months. Not a small 2 percent drop after a string of rises, but a plunge. This came in spite of the continuation of the targeted $8,000 tax credit to first time homebuyers and the new $6,500 tax credit for relocating buyers. Further, the home loan modification program of the Central Planners, a $75 billion targeted use of your tax dollars, has been an abject failure. When first passed, we were told 5.0 million of the 80.0 million homeowners in trouble because of debt to home value ratios or income issues would be helped out of their mess. So far, only 50,000 have benefitted. One person on CNBC termed this program a massive "propaganda scheme." That pretty much sums up most of the programs the Central Planners have come up with for the little guy, the household. A few large corporations are getting the real goodies, with essentially nothing of note assisting consumers, small businesses, and small banks. They key to a true economic turnaround is to get these three groups back on their feet. They need meaningful tax rebates, marginal tax rate cuts, high income earning jobs, and in the case of small banks, relief from an onerous FDIC insurance surcharge, which I will discuss in a moment.

A little history from ancient Greece. A policy of allowing a few large and powerful individuals, or in our case banking firms, to drive government economic policy, which is what we see going on now, is called an oligarchy, not a democracy, not even a republic. "Oligarchy" means "rule by a few" in Greek. Almost the entire stimulus plan has been cash handouts to a few large financial corporations. Nothing of any substance has been provided to the masses of the people, who elect representatives, who elect our government. Somehow, the Central Planners are heeding the wishes of Goldman Sachs and friends, with ill-regard to moms and pops on Main Street. This was the politics of ancient Greece from 800 to 650 B.C.

Resentment of aristocratic power over the interests of the masses led to dictatorship. The age of the tyrants followed oligarchy in Greece from 650 to 500 BC. The policy and decision making road this Central planner group has chosen is a dangerous path.

Back to the markets. Our take on the Pending Home Sales Agreement plunge is that the third leg of this massive Bear Market, wave (C ) down, is close to starting. It is assured of coming due to the ignoring of the key generators of economic growth in the U.S. The household (consumer) is 70 percent of GDP. Small businesses generate 80 percent of all new jobs. Small banks provide the fuel for consumers and small businesses, small loans and safe returns on conservative investments.

Community Banks were recently assessed a prepayment insurance premium for the next 3 years in order to raise $45 billion into the FDIC insurance fund, which was due December 31st, 2009. Those fees are so onerous, so huge as compared to small community bank earnings, that it basically knocks the crap out of small bank earnings, which are critical for capital accumulation which drives lending ability. This is on top of an already increased premium by 200 percent in 2009. It drew $45 billion of liquidity from the banking system in stealth fashion at a time when banks need more liquidity to lend to consumers. It reduced capital levels in all banks. Another insane, stupid decision by the regulatory agency minions serving this Central Planner group. Why? Because the few large banks who are running our economy have no problem paying this FDIC prepayment fee thanks to all the cash they got from the Central Planners in the bailout plans. It is the small bank that did not need or desire to accept TARP funds that get punished. To quote the president of a community bank that I know well, "Unfortunately the community banks continue to feel the brunt of the financial crisis by bailing out the large banks and having to deal with the numerous new regulations enacted due to the actions of these large institutions. In addition, we are facing the possibility of yet another regulatory body, the Consumer Financial Protection Agency. The House recently narrowly passed the bill to create this agency. Hopefully you heard or read about Obama's "Fat Cat Bankers" interview. This just shows a complete lack of understanding by Obama regarding banking in that he continues to lump all banks together in his comments."

It is as if all economic policy has to be run by the few large Wall Street financial companies before adoption. They could care less what happens to the little guy. And, oh yeah, their earnings are just fine, thank you very much.

It this arrogance toward the masses and stupidity of economic policy that will ensure catastrophic wave (C ) down comes. "

Watch List for 1/6/10

I, SWEAR, this is the LAST TIME, I'll ever mention BAC, promise. It's just that when I get some thing in focus, it's like a wild hair up my ass, I concentrate on it. It's funny, because on a PER SHARE basis, my Q position is two and a half times larger than this one (of course, it's much larger on an over all portfolio percent), but there's not much I can do with the Q's, the base position is done until March, all I can do is day trade against the current positions I have, IE, sell calls or puts, wad ever, and hope I don't screw it up and doing some thing stupid, eeeeeerrrr, MORE, stupid, hahahahaha.

My basic "theory" on BAC, is in the bottom chart, there's BIG resistance coming up, in the $16.50 "area", that was the highs in November and December, and a low "shelf" in August and September. I could see it continue to grind around inside this ascending triangle, maybe pulling back from that 16.50 level, back down to the 20dma, around 15.50, before making another push higher. It "could", just continue higher, for if it can get over the 16.50 road block, it has NO resistance back up to the October highs, about 18.50 to the 19 "area". I would prefer it pulls BAC first, so I can load up on more of it.
The weekly chart at the top, show's it has another BIG resistance area at almost exactly 20 bucks, that's another low level "shelf", from July through October-December in 08'. Most "ANALYST", have a target on this thing of 25 bucks, but I'm tellin ya, if it get's through that $20 block, it has $35 SQUARE IN IT'S TARGETS! I just have a feeling about this thing, with the FED doing every thing it can to insure they make money, IE the extremely steep yield curve, they could be profitable for the next year or two. The housing stat's were just horrible today, and it didn't bother it at all, REMEMBER, it has all that CountryWide shit sitting on it's books, eeeeeerrrrrrrrrr, ACTUALLY, our maaaaaaavelous GOVERNMENT told them to take that OFF their books, hahahahahahaha, stinking crooks (I'm talking about Da Government of course). I am VERY active in this thing, IE, I'm trading and covering my ass all over the place, with a bent toward upward appreciation, but I'm not going to lose my ass if it goes down.

Anyway, that's it, I'll never mention it again.

Peter Worden had some interesting long idea's, JAV is a $1.35 stock that could look interesting, other's that look interesting on both the daily and weekly charts include SPAR, SGI, and FUQI, with WNR as a bottom fishing gamble.

Shorts that look decent include GOOG (HAH, they sold the great news today), SMH, BIIB, LLY, PNM, FRX, and AA, it had a pretty bad day today, TSV and MS are collasping, ahead of earnings next monday. The Trend on this thing is UP, BUT, "they", may sell it ahead of earnings.

1/5/10

2:00PM: Well, that was a little better, the pivot chart worked really well today, we opened at the Pivot Point, fell to S1 out of the open, then rallied all the way up to the R1 point, which was also in the area of R2 from yesterday, failed to get over yesterday's highs, gave it up, and pulled back down all the way to the S2 level, in fact we hit S2 EXACTLY on the button, 46.16, which ended up being the low of the day, as we rallied into the close.
We get the ADP in the morning, which can be a mover, with a little gap up, I'm going to be looking for a double or triple top from yesterday, that is, unless they just blast us higher.
I hope you picked up some BAC.

I was a little, aaaahhh, abrupt, last night, but it just piss's me off when "they" do that, I mean, obviously, last thursday was a classic setup by Da Boyz, there should not have been one reason in hell that we didn't get some follow through to that lousy sell setup, I mean, FINE, do your little bear trap crap, but, GEEZE, "they" didn't have to go so over board, and gap us clear over the highs for the period! The reason it piss's me off so much, is that it just ruin's the entire day, my day was over after the first half hour, more likely the first 15 minutes, as "investors", did exactly what you would expect when we get such an obnoxious gap like that, they didn't do anything! You'd have to be out of your mind to "buy" it, and so the Q's just went flat for the rest of the day, wallowing around, doing Nada.
ANYWAY, maybe today will be better, futures are pretty flat right now, so I might get some movement after the open. Ivica has been talking about the equal move's on the index's, and in looking at the Q's, you "could" say that we've fullfilled the "requirements", there's two possibilities I'm looking at on that chart, the bigger equal move is the green line's, from the November low to the top of the consolidation, or "about", 3.5 points, you then take the low of the little triangle inside the December consolidation, which is at about 43, just under it actually, and you add the 3.5 points to that, or "about", 46.50, or, "ABOUT" (lot of "abouts" there, as nothing is done EXACTLY, they are all just "areas") where we are now. The other way to do it, would be to take that same low in December, which is the purple box, which is just over 1.5 points, and add it to the top of the consolidation, which gives us an "area", of about 46-46.50, which again, is just about where we are. So we have TWO equal move possibilities, both of which point to where we are now.
This don't mean diddly squat of course, for if "they" are determined to push us higher, and make investor's chase it, then they are going to go higher, period! I only bring it up, because the current parameters have been filled, but with the shit volume yesterday, they probably didn't get enough "participants" to buy it, to try and inflict some pain on them, with a pull back, IE, the markets going to go, where it can inflict the greatest amount of pain on wrong way Johnnies, so, sigh, they probably continue to grind us higher.
I have talked about this before, and I'll say it again, I HATE it when they run us UP into earnings season, that's never good when they discount those maaaaaaaaavelous earnings ahead of time, for it open's the door for surprises to the DOWN side, IE, they better beat the shit out of the estimates, or the stock will get punished. Hard to believe, but earning season kicks off on Monday, with AA reporting, INTC reports on thursday of next week.

Here's hoping for a better day, good luck out there in La La Land.

Watch Idea for 1/5/10

I have no words for this, other than it's probably one of the single most obnoxious things I've ever seen. I mean, come on Goldman, geeze, at least try and make it look decent, a little gap up would have worked just fine, then we could have rallied on the nice ISM number this morning, but gapping us completely over that big down day on friday, is, well........... Wad ever, it is wad it is, they did this before, in the circle, and it led to some sizeable gains, but we are slightly more over bought right now, than we were then, at least volume was a little higher than Friday. Do what you gotta do, I'm just trying to manage my position.

My watch idea is one I've been in for a while, BAC, it had a very nice day with the market today, and just about completely filled the inside of this very nice triangle, I did NOT add to the position today (I "should" have, HAH), if they gap us over that triangle tomorrow morning, I "may" add to it, if they don't, then I want to see the reaction on another test of that lower trend line. It's not over bought, yet, and could be good go higher.

Sunday Musings

5:00pm MT: OOPS! Uncle Ben Bernacke tried throwing a curve ball at the "holding rate's at ZERO percent forever" crowd this morning, http://bit.ly/5G1Yj2 , the response was that Tax Cheatin Timmy told Goldman to get their ass to work, and pumped some of our rapidly falling dollars into Goldman, so they could buy the futures tonight, to try and continue to artificially hold the markets up, as the futures are actually UP about 1/2%, hahahaha, ROACH'S! ZERO Hedge has been chronicling this, http://www.zerohedge.com/ , and has ACTUALLY gotten a response from Goldman, hahahahaha, I guess it's starting to get through even their thick skin.

Anyway, the pure audacity of Bernacke trying to claim that the GreenHole holding interest rates at 1%, had NOTHING to do with the prior bubbles, is actually bordering on stupidity, but for him to say that INCREASED regulation is what is needed to control FUTURE bubbles, is beyond arrogance. I mean, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it the FED's responsibility, to REGULATE THEIR OWN BANKS???? Don't we already have, all the regulations that are necessary, WE JUST NEED SOME ONE TO ENFORCE THEM????? Wad ever. That stinking Giethner's move on Christmas Eve, to virtually insure that tax payer's carry the entire load, of the GSE's losses, FOREVER, while protecting the bond holder's of the banks, is typical of the rape of the country that has been going on for almost a century now, when they created the Federal Reserve in 1913, the day before Christmas Eve, A PRIVATE ORGANIZATION, OWNED BY THE BANKS THEMSELVES!!!! Goldman was one of the original owner's issued stock in it, I believe Mother Merrill was another, I mean, correct me if I'm wrong again, but doesn't the Consitution say that (HEAVEN HELP US), CONGRESS, is the only one that can print money??? Hahahahaha, god, wad ever. It was just a stinking miracle that we JUST HAPPENED to pass the Income tax earlier that year, and it ALSO just happen's, that the only thing backing the dollar then (EEEEERRRRR, not the dollar, it was, and IS, NOTES), was the ABILITY of the Federal Government, to collect Income tax's from the people!
Since I'm just ranting out my Ahole here, to no one in particular, take a look at ZERO HEDGE, and the particular's on Blarney Flank's new regulation bill, hahahahahahahaha, just, UNSTINKING, UNREAL BULL SHIT, I mean, not only does it NOT, do any thing about TO BIG TO FAIL, it actually, DOUBLES, the amount of OUR money, that Uncle Ben and Idiot Tax Cheatin Timmy, can pour into the Banks, to save them, FROM THEMSELVES!!!!!! (Actually, I have to RETRACT that a little, as the banks are being forced by CONGRESS, to lend money to people who can't afford to pay it back, led by BLARNEY himself, but that's a WHOLE nother thing to, aaaaaahhhhh, converse, about, like, the President of the US coming on national TV, to ASSURE, the average consumer, who is actually trying to DELEVERAGE their overwhelming debt load, by trying to do some dumb ass thing, like SAVE money, that he will instruct Mr. Bernake, to hold the interest rate on their savings accounts at LESS than 1%, while he plays Mr. Nice guy, and allows the Banks to BORROW at that LESS THAN 1%, so they can loan it back to YOU, at any where from 6-30%, depending on what option you CHOOSE, to try and meet the monthly, MINIMUM, credit card charges YOU pay each month, on the money YOU ALREADY BORROWED, to try and keep up, on the monthly payments YOU COULDN'T AFFORD BEFORE!!!!! ). I mean, the concept's coming out of Washington, are, like, just, UNFRICKINGREAL!

5:00am MT: I watched and read a couple of articles by my two of my most favorite people in the investment world, Charlie Biderman and Marc Faber, this weekend. They aren't considered to be two of the brightest light blub's in the investment community, which is the FIRST reason I like them, and they are definitely maverick's, telling it like they think it is, which is the SECOND reason I like them.

Marc is, EASILY, the single most interesting individual in the Investment world, and this is probably the best phone interview I've heard with him, in some time, as the, "experts", on CNBC, refrained from doing their typical Ahole butcher job, where they constantly feel they have to interrupt and interject their own worthless fricking opinions, http://bit.ly/5XRTY6 . Marc of course, is famous for his Gloom, Boom and Doom report, mostly known as Dr. Doom, hahahahaha, it just cracks me up, he's made as many bullish calls as bearish calls, most recently at the March bottom, but the press just love's to have him on their show's, mostly as Dr. Doom, to counter act all the typical Bullshitissness crap. He actually live's in Thailand, his office is in Hong Kong, and this interview was from where he currently is, on the beach in that stink hole Vietnam. He is constantly on the move, trying to avoid contract assasin's sent out by Goldman, Morgan, and Merrill, but mostly he's doing research in every corner of the world, looking for, "investment", opportunities. When you see a live interview with him, you quickly realize that he's also funnier than hell, with a constant little twinkle in his eye's, and I think he exaggerates that thick accent of his, just to kind of give a better Dr. Strangelove persona for his Dr. Doom image.

It's very nice to see an actual written report from Charlie, Nada, Zilch, eeeeeerrrr, ZERO Hedge came up with one, http://bit.ly/5KmRiK , as he is, beyond any and all doubt, the single worst interviewee seen on TV, even I get a little impatient with him. But he's the "NUMBERS" guy, and it get's a little dry trying to listen to him going over all his figures, as it can be a little overwhelming, but his bottom line has been the same for the last year, numbers DON'T lie, and he hasn't been able to find any thing to support the rally, other than the unseen hand, and we ALL know whose hand's they are, RIGHT!!!! I should bring up, that this bearishness by Charlie the last year is a new thing, he used to constantly irritate me with his previous PermaBull image, alway's coming up with supporting evidence for the market rise, I'm tellin Ya, he used to irritate the HELL out of me, I'm glad to see he's finally seen the light, hahahaha!

I have no idea why I have that chart of the Russell 1000 up there, I only "DO", Da Q's, well, actually, I do know why, I'm just not telling. But it does seem to be the cleanest of the bunch, it has all the typical "stuff" on it, it's climbing up inside of an ending diagonal, the drop on friday came down and touched the lower trend line that goes back to the start of the July blast off, the MACD continues to build out this enormous divergence, and in the circle it's right on the verge of triggering a confirmed sell signal, both the RSI and STOCH have triggered sell signals after dropping out of over bought conditions, price is as stretched from it's 200dma as it's been in decades, you know, all the typical technical bull shit that says to short the hell out of this thing! THAT, of course, has been a wonderful loser's game since March, but I'm hoping Dr. Doom is right, and some volatility returns to the markets this year, meaning, we go up, AND DOWN, rather than this prefabricated grind higher. Speaking of that, the volume last week, in the circle, was verwy interwesting, as it was almost exactly the same each day, even Thursday, meaning the UNSEEN hand was the only one in the market, putting in their prearranged volume of buy's each day.

Swing Trade Signals for Week of 1/4/10

Since it's the start of the New Year, I ran the MSW through the main default system on all the ETF's, this "system" uses the same 59 individual trading systems to arrive at it's signals, as the "swing" trading system below, it just uses different entry and stop parameter's, and the results are like an Ocean Liner, it takes a long time for it to change signals, in fact, on the weekly time frame, which is what I used, you are lucky to get one signal a year.

The only new buys it could come up with were on commodities, gasoline, UGA (that's just gggrrreeeeaaattt for the economy), and the base metals, BDD, in fact, it just LOVE'S the base metals, as it has a confirmed buy on BDG just below that.

It feel's the same way as I do about bonds, as the only new short it could come up with was on AGG, I included a chart of the Q's to the right of that, to show the buy it came up with on 10/12/09.

I included the list of all the positions it currently has, so you can look through it and see if it has a signal on one of your favorite ETF's. As you can see, the MSW has a total of 94 current buy signals, and only 24 short signals, it's overwhelmingly bullish (STUPID SOFTWARE, IT DOESN'T KNOW WHAT IN THE HELL IT'S TALKING ABOUT!!!!! HAHAHA).

The MSW came up with five new buys on the daily swing trade signals for the ETF's, and only 3 new shorts, like I have mentioned several times lately, it's just not that interested in the markets right now, as that's an extremely small number of signals for over 800 ETF's. On a short term basis it like's real estate, RWR, I say short term, because it has a short on real estate on the weeklies below. It also like's oil.

I could find no news to explain the huge drop in the DPO, ALTHOUGH, in checking their site http://www.iqiafunds.com/secFiling.asp?symbol=DPO , it appear's they've cut the dividend in half, to .085 cents a month, from .16 cents, so maybe that's what the drop is all about, it would be currently yielding about 9%, as compared to close to 16% before. It always get's me worried when some outfit I never heard of, start's doing funny shit with one of it's products, I intend to try and contact them tomorrow, to see if they have any news I can use.

On the weekly signals for the ETF's the MSW came up with 4 new buys and 8 new shorts, on the buy side it like's Global wind (No shit Gomer, the "WIND" coming out of that global warming meeting was unreal), and Muni's.
I want to high light the new short it has on the S&P 100, OEF, as you can see, it's been trading the OEF very well, it almost caught the exact bottom in March, and did all right on two additional buy signals, and now here we are, and out of the blue it put's on it's first short signal since March, hhhhhhmmmmmm, stupid software can't possible know what it's doing, can it??? It also seem's to dislike real estate for some ungodly reason, DRN.

The MSW came up with 4 new buys on the daily signals for the Russell 1000, and 15 new shorts. I show COP and MS on the charts as the new buys, in my personal opinion GS looks MUCH better than MS, although the MSW has no signal on it. As regards COP, Chris Puplava has a very nice article on cycle's and sector rotation here, http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm , his bottom line is that he expects energy to out perform next year, eeeeeeeerrrrrrrr, THIS year, geeze, forgot already.

Naturally, the short's all look like better charts to me, I have BKC and PNW on the charts, but my "personal" opinion is you can short the whole stinking bunch.

The MSW seem's to be a little more bearish on a longer term basis, as it only came up with one new buy on the weekly charts of the Russell 1000, and 21 new short signals. I showed the chart of SCS as a common courtesy, see my last comment above if you doubt which way I lean.

The three short charts are the best looking ones, ACF, EGN and OIS, but they all look pretty decent. I love these type of setups, mainly because your stop is TIGHT, and very clear, as you will want to be leaving if they take out the highs of the consolidations. All of them have been consolidating for a couple of months, and have a double topping look to them, yea, yea, yea, yea, they "could" be consolidating for more break outs to the upside, but that's why you use stops, RIGHT! The way I look at it, there's a lot of people that have brought these things the last two months, and are getting tired of waiting for the break out, and with the first chink in the armour showing up last week, any further weakness this week and those people may be fighting each other to see who can get out the fire door first.

2009 ReCap, and a Look Ahead

There were a few surprises, at least there were to "ME", when looking back at the performance of various "ASSET" classes over the past year. One that doesn't surprise me, is the performance out of Brazil, as it's been shown time and time again, that the award of the Olympic games is a great boost to that countries GDP, as they spend hundred's of billions in construction on the various venue's, plus new hotels, etc etc etc. And just as certain, as I chronicled prior to the China games, once the games end, and the disappointment set's in over how much it cost, and how little they recieved for hosting the games, the Four Horsemen ride in, to take the country firmly in their grip. China was very typical, as they peaked in the last quarter of 07', before losing 70% into the post game period. Naturally, a lot of people will say, but that was a result of the world wide finanacial crisis! HAH! Was that crisis a by product of China winding down??? Hmmmmm, could be.

Despite all the yelling and screaming by the Gold bug's, it was actually only in the middle of the returns, which of course, those same bug's will be yelling and screaming again this year, that Gold's mediocre performance is setting it up for the BLAST OFF this year!! Wad ever, good luck to you on that one, seriously, I might pick some up this year, I haven't decided yet.

Bonds of course, are the single most interesting asset class of last year, and, of the coming year. This is only the second time that bond's have actually lost money, in like, the last 30 or 40 years?? I forget, I heard some one give the Stat, it's either since 1981, or 1974, some thing like that. Regardless, they are either going to be the best performing class in the next year, or set a new record, and lose money for two consecutive years, which would probably be an all time record. The piss poor sentiment analysis is overwhelmingly on the bearish side, as Retails have piled into bond funds in record amounts over the last year, while the "funnymental" picture HAS to be just as bearish, for with the BenHOLE holding rate's at ZERO percent, rate's have NO WHERE to go, but UP! Which bring's up the contrarian point, that with EVERY ONE thinking bonds HAVE to go DOWN, WILL THEY???!!! I guess the break point is going to come in March, when the FED start's to wind down their printing and "investment" spree, the Five year yield has been moving up for the last year, currently sitting at 2.68%, and when going back to before the "crisis" started, yield's were "generally" in the 5% "area", so they could double from here, very easily as a matter of fact, which would suit me JUST FINE, thank you very much. The chart of the TLT, above, is sitting at a critical point right here, it's on a double bottom going back to last June, and "COULD", bounce here, BUT, the pattern since then has a slight wisp of a head and shoulders pattern, and if you measure it, from the head to the neck line, the TLT "could", drop down into the 70's, if we break down from here. My preferred play on an H & S, is to draw a line across the top, from the Head down to the top of the right shoulder, with that area being the break point, IE, we bounce up from here, and the break point, right now, would be in the 93-95 "area", which is where we might get the final failure, before breaking back down below the neck line. The reverse would come with a clean break through that line, in which case I may start to partial in over the course of the next year. I have other vehicle's I use, like my Vanguard funds, I'm just using the TLT as an example.

The list above are the eight sector's that CXO talked about in their Sector Rotation strategy, I posted the parameter's on 12/24. If you use their strategy on a YEARLY basis, then you "should", be buying Tech (Please DO, you have my invitation to buy my position, HAH), for another 70% return next year. Of course, if you use the strategy that has been proven to work for centuries, you would just flip flop the list above, and over weight your " sector investment" in XLU for the next year, with lesser weightings all the way down to XLK.

The best ETF's over the past year follow pretty much in line with the asset classes, with the exception of coal, KOL, hmmmmmm, I think I've seen this story some where before! The Liar's, some times called ANALYST, have been yelling and screaming about KOL, the concept being that China is loading up, in preparation for 100% GDP growth next year, but my own little indicator is saying some thing entirely different, that being the Baltic Dry index, which has been dropping pretty rapidly the last month (damn that DRYS!!). Either the liar's are lying, or those commie bastards are (I'm not talking about OUR administration by the way).

In the worst ETF's, the TLT was saved only by the Short ETF's, amazing, it was the first ETF to show up, that was NOT a short one.

The one that bother's me on a personal basis, is the Livestock, it doesn't bother me because of the pricing, Live Cattle are going for about 85 cents right now, I've seen it get down in the 60's, it's more the rumbling's I've heard in town, about cutting back production and stuff like that, PLUS, in case you haven't noticed, Gasoline has almost DOUBLED in the last year, I'm talking about the RBOB, which has to start working it's way into food prices, not to mention the cost of Joe Twelve pack in getting to the job he wish's he had.

Semi-Conductors kind of blew every other Industry away this year, didn't they!!!!! Yeeeeeee Haaaaawwwwww, I'm throwing ALLLLLLLLLL my money, into that group, they are BOUND, to double next year!!!!!!!!!!

The one thing that stands out to me on the Industry loser's list, is that ONLY 10 of the Industry's were negative the past year, and not surprisingly, most of those were Regional banks, or related to banking or Insurance.
I'm sure that with our massive 2.5% GDP growth that most of the "experts" are calling for next year, we can eliminate those pesky loser's, and go 100% POSITIVE next year!

2010 Market Prediction

Ok, I DON'T "DO", market predictions, but I went to all the trouble to draw out the EXACT direction the market will take next year, above, so, hell, I might as well say it's a prediction! Ok, so sue me, actually of course, I didn't draw it out, that chart is from 2004, which, is EXACTLY what "I" think, we have to look forward to next year. The similarities are, aaaahhhhhh, ERIE, we had the big run up out of 03', we had the "SANTA" pump into the first of the year, the little yellow circle on the left, we then continued the pump into earnings in January, when we kind of, aaaahhhh, STOPPED, to think about it a little. We then had a little pull back into February, tried to make a new high, and failed, pulled back, then ran it back up into March, had a break out failure, when the "people" in the KNOW, found out first quarter earnings in April were going to SUCK, so they dumped the shit out of it, into late March. Da Boyz then did one of their little classic's they love to do, they rallied us into April earnings, trying to suck in as many RETAILS as they could, which they promptly crushed. They then dumped us into May, when they did the exact same thing, and rallied us into earnings in July (geeze, we just NEVER learn), and finally bottomed in my favorite month, August.

The HOPE I see, in order to get us positive for the year, is Joe Six Pack finally realize's there's no STIMULUS plan, only a Democrap SPENDING plan, with ton's of TAX's included with the PLAN, and get so fed up by the election, that they vote in enough INDEPENDENTS, to counter act the spend thrift Republican Guard and the Democraps, so that no body has control of one of the house's, probably Congress. This will put a lid on any more stupid spending bills, and the "market", will love it, with a blast off into November, just like in 04', the rally actually started in mid to late October.

This is the current chart of where we are now, if you look at the TSV, it's VERY similar to where we were going into 04', FLAT. The thing that bother's me, is that MS, Money Stream, was going UP into 04', whereas NOW, it's almost trying to go negative.

I know it's hard to remember this, but in 04', the A/D's, Advance/Decline line, was just BLASTING higher into the first of the year, even as TSV continued to diverge into those new highs on the A/D's.

When we look at the A/D's right now, yea, we're going higher, but we are creepey crawling higher with the market, not BLASTING up, IE, it doesn't look as good as 03' into the first of 04'.

Bottom line, I could easily see us following pretty close to the same senario, surprising every one (EVERY ONE, being the Bear's of course (like, ME, hahaha)), by continuing UP into January earnings season, then a little, aaaaaaahhhhhhhhh, HESITATION, after earnings are over, when it appear's that earnings are not as GREAT as the sell side is trying to convince the RETAILS that they will be, then we pull back a little (that's called, aaahh, February), as Da Street get's their Salesmen out in full force, to try and convince the RETAILS, HEY, DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY, we'll blow earning's away in APRIL!!!! Hahahahahaha, the typical bull shit type stuff, of course, as we get pumped into earnings, then we disappoint in April, and do the pull back into August.

HEY, that's my story, and I'M STICKING TO IT! At least, until I find out I'm wrong, and then I'll just delete this post, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

Of course, the Big Money is going to made by figuring out what bubble Uncle Ben Bernacke is creating now, just like the Green AHOLE did in 03', when he held interest rates at a LOFTY 1-1.25% (I say, "LOFTY", of course, as that's much higher than the ZERO that Ben is holding them at now). I don't really see where it's at yet, of course, it probably wasn't easily seen in 03', as that was just the start of the housing, and Banking, bubble. Ben "COULD", create a commodity bubble again, but of course, that's defeatist, as it was the oil bubble that ACTUALLY caused the recession, as consumer's were more than happy to keep buying shit they couldn't afford, as long as Congress kept telling the banks to loan to the dead beats, but it was $4 plus gas prices that finally convinced the dumb ass's that they were in a lot of trouble! No, I don't think it will be another commodity bubble, that would get cut short right away, as the economy would collaspe faster than you can spell "BEN". I'd say BONDS, but, they are acutally already pulling back, as interest rates rise, so it's going to be SOONER, rather than later, when the retails start getting cushed even more, with that massive amount of money they've thrown into bond funds. The retails and consumer's are so fricking stupid, geeze, I can't believe it, they pile into bond's, when the rate is ZERO, with no where to go, accept UP, the same thing with the idiots that brought house's with adjustable rate, and option arm loans, with the Green HOLE holding rate's at 1%, with again, no where to go, accept UP, just in time for the ReFi's. NAW, it's going to be some thing else, like, right now, looking at the toy making Q's, HAH, I could say it would be them, as the consensus seems to be, that the Asian consumers, who make a dollar an hour, are buying those $600 CSCO router's has fast as they can spell Ying Yang. Wad ever, I believe it. The Industry leading Semi's will probably be the tell, keep an eye on inventories, if they start to rise, then, Hmmmmm, maybe they aren't spending their whole year's wages on that cell phone.