Weekly Sector, Industry and Russell 1000 Money Flows

The sector and asset class money flows had some surprises this week, at least, they did to me. I'm kind of surprised to see Tech leading the outflows (well, actually, nothing surprises me when it comes to the NasDogs), but I'm even more surprised to see the small caps, IWM, up in the middle of the pack, hhmmmmm, plus, it's pretty amazing when our major index's are getting more out flows than the emerging markets, EEM, and China, FXI. The flight to safety to bonds, doesn't surprise me, but the dollar in the top spot is almost a shock, although, the inflows for both of those are nothing to write home about, IE, it appears "investors" were not panicking, YET. I really don't like that chart of TLT much at all, it's already over bought on the Stoch, it's at the top range of a down sloping Linear regression channel, it stopped just under the 50dma, TSV is trying to put in a lower high than the November high, and has curled to the down side and is just barely positive, and it had a gap down, narrow range doji bar, finishing negative on the day, when you would have THOUGHT, it would have had another big up day like it did on thursday. Hey, other than those six or seven items, the chart just looks all honkey dorrey.
HOWEVER, for you bond investor's, or would be investor's, the quarterly report from Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D., is a MUST read, it's down toward the bottom of this page,
http://bit.ly/8SypKg .


I went through every one of the charts on the leading Industry money flows, and every one of them looked pretty doggie, I accidently put that chart up of Toys and Hobby stores, as I thought it was the Q's, for as we all know all they make, for the most part, is a bunch of crap like toys and hobby products that we don't really need. I'm pretty dense, but when I see only 13 Industry sectors, out of 239, had positive money flows the past week, I get the feeling the market is trying to tell me some thing.

I have no idea what that Industry at the bottom of the out flows list is, "Diversified Investments", if I had to guess, I'd say it's made up of a bunch of hedge funds that specialize in "diversifying" their clients into a bunch of losing investments, that being for "investors" that need the write offs of course. When you read that list of the "winning losers", it covers a pretty large spectrum of Industries, as investors didn't seem to be to choosey about what they piled out of the past week.

Once again, I went through every chart of that list above, the stocks in the Russell 1000 with the leading money flows for the past week, and for the most part they all looked like doggie poop, most of them were big gap ups that had a couple of big red bars on the end of them. I only put the chart of EBAY on there to show how the "massive" gap up, after they reported earnings, was really pretty weak, as it gapped right up into the top edge of the Linear regression channel, and then got sold pretty hard yesterday. MS had a huge surge on it, but TSV just barely managed to get above the zero line, and then turned back down into negative territory yesterday. It does have some positive features though, it tailed back down through the 20 and 50dma's yesterday, but managed to rally back and close above them, and it has a positive cross of the 20 and 50dma's, which set's up a decent R/R trade, the obvious stop being under those MA's. I'm just not sure how much you are going to get out of that thing right now.

Once again, the "leading loser's" in the Russell 1000 was across a pretty wide spectrum of Industries, as investor's were dumping just about every thing, I'm kind of surprised to see Goldman and JPM on the list, wad ever. As always, I'm much more interested in this bunch than the other one, as a lot of these seem more "investable" to me than the bunch above, they all look pretty much the same of course, awful TSV and MS configurations, but a lot of them are getting "over sold", and coming into "area's" of support (disclaimer, they can get much more "over sold", and can find much lower "area's" of support). AMAT is kind of mildly interesting, it has yet to report, the LRC is sloping upward, it stopped on it's 200dma friday, with huge volume, and got almost to the bottom of the channel, and the daily Stoch is getting to an extreme of over soldishness. On a weekly chart, it's 50wma is sitting right at $12, which is also where that double bottom was in November, this thing is a horrible trading stock, it always get a bunch of over lapping bars, and pretty choppy behavior, BUT, it is THE stock in it's semi sector, and a leading indicator for Tech sales. It bottomed at around 8.50 in the current bear market, which is also where it bottomed in the first part of the continuing bear, in 02', another interesting thing about it, is it tends to find temporary support at whole numbers, with the next support at $11, then $10, etc etc etc. I'm not sure what I'm trying to say here, hahahaha, BUT, I can say that it's pretty clear, either it finds support at $12, or it's "probably" heading back down to the $8.50 area. If it put's on some kind of reversal candle on a test of $12, like, it breaks below it, then turns around intraday and close's positive, leaving a long tailed doji type bar, it "could" be investible. Just a thought.

1/22/09

2:10PM: Welp, my open got ruined right before the opening bell, the dirty butt holes reversed and took us down into the open, any way, we tried to fill the gap the first 15 minutes after the open, failed by ONE CENT, and that was it, Sadie bar the fricking door! We had two classic examples of "finding support", and "losing support", that I've seen in quite a while. We found support at that green circle at that level I talked about, $45, had the typical weak bounce, wallowed around for three hours, and in the orange circle, you can see an itty bitty teeney green doji bar, where we tried to hold that $45 level again, then the next bar just blew right through it, that is really, good stuff, very classic look at the difference between the two. We had a little green doji, inside bar, on the next bar, and then actually BACK TESTED that $45 mark, JUST TO MAKE SURE, and that was it, we sold off into the close. The worse thing I saw all day was at that green horizontal line, that's a gap fill at $44.46, from 12/18, I really thought we might find support there, but atlas, we just blew right through it. Nearest "support" now, is a gap fill at about 43.82, looks pretty close to me. Anyway, I'm tired, I'll do some thing over the weekend, see ya.

6:50am: Q's are trying to fill the gap in the premarket this morning, as I guess inwestor's are coming to their senses, and decided all is forgiven in GOOG, as it's moving up a little. We are only about 9 cents away from the gap fill, which will be at 45.49, the green circle is yesterday's close. The "premarket" pivot point is in the orange circle, at 45.62, and then just above that is the little top we made just over an hour before the close, I'm watching that "area" for a possible top on the bounce, around 45.70, if we weaken in that area, I'll probably cover the short puts and start selling calls, HOWEVER, should we get through that area, we get into that big bar that started the down draft yesterday, which left a VOID, or clear air, back up to the 46.20 area. Anyway, just some idea's I'm contemplating before I go brain dead after the open.

5:30am: Futures are down about 40 points, after the company that is an index, in and of itself, reported earnings this morning, GE, GE profit tops analysts' estimates, shares ease .
Most new's articles about the report are all warm and fuzzy, with great accolades, as they "beat", "expectations", which is why I consider GE to be one of the many poster child's for the ridiculous nature of the rally since March. That's wonderful that they, "beat", "expectations", but the facts of the matter are, their profit was almost 20%, and revenue 10%, LOWER, than they were a year ago, that is, lower than the worst year since the first great depression, and yet the stock has tripled since the March bottom. But wait, you say, aren't stock prices based on "future" projections????? Greeeaaaattt, their "future projection" is that earnings for 2010 will be "about" the same as they were in 2009, hahahahahahahaha!! Call me crazy, but it sure seem's to me that fair value for the outfit would be around $4, or about 75% LOWER than where the stock is trading now.
Anyway, if I throw out what they "SHOULD" be trading at, a look at their funnymentals show's they are pretty fairly valued here, with a PEG of 1.41, a P/S of 1.06, and their dividend is actually higher than the S&P, at 2.5%, but the P/E is a little bothersome, it's not particulary HIGH, at a trailing of 14.30, but the "FORWARD" P/E is 16.69, so the stock price has to come down about 15% to get it back to the current trailing, at about $14.40, which might be an area to start averaging into, or you could just wait until it's 4 bucks and take a full position then.

Here's another DOW HOG, HOG, Harley-Davidson Reports 2009 Results , it's trading 50% higher than it was a year ago, and yet it's revenue was 23% lower than a year ago, and income was 90% LOWER than that same year, hahahahahaha! BUT WAIT, we have to base it's value on "FORWARD" projections, well, great, it "expects", to ship five to ten percent LESS products in the coming year, than it did last year, just fricking great.
MCD continues to deliver, McDonald's profit is $1.22B in 4th quarter , buy MCD and short the other two, although it would help the country a lot, if you would buy a Harley so you could stop by MacDonald's for a Big Mac, on your way home from work at the GE light blub factory.

Robert McHugh was certainly in one of his more cheerful moods this morning, geeze, he make's me look like a polyanna permabull:

"Now to the meat of Thursday. The Supreme Court destroyed American Democracy Thursday. Stick a fork in it. We are done. The grand experiment in democracy called the United States of America had a nice run, about 235 years, but it has been destroyed today, Thursday, January 21st, 2010 from within, the Supreme Court of the United States. The Supreme Court virtually assured we will be completely ruled by an Oligarchy from now on, which will of course lead to dictatorship, as we saw happened in both ancient Greece and ancient Rome. The Constitution has been destroyed. What did the gang of five do? The Supreme Court ruled 5 to 4 that corporations are people, and therefore have the right to spend all the money they want to in support of any candidate they choose. The Supreme Court ruled that corporations have the first amendment right of free speech because they are "people."

They have erred of course, and violated the intent of the U.S. Constitution. They have stretched the definition of "people" to non-people. They have called black white. Up is down. They have redefined the plain definition of a word to something totally different than that word. Corporations are not people. That is common sense and plain to any rationally thinking honest person with a soul. Corporations do not vote. Corporations do not run for election to political office. Corporations are legal creations, associations of people with human souls (shareholders) who already have the right to vote and hold political office. The human souls who are shareholders are not the same as the corporation itself. They are different.

This ruling undermines the integrity of the election system. It throws out over a century of restrictions imposed by Congress against corporations so that they would not influence the outcome of elections. Corporations have an unfair advantage over the small guy, over real people, in the amount of money they control.

What does this mean? It means future Supreme Court Justices will be appointed by presidents who have been bought, purchased, and are controlled by corporations, and confirmed by U.S. senators who also have been purchased by corporations. It means Exxon Mobil, who earn $45 billion a year, can spend any amount of money they want on advertisements supporting a political candidate. It means any candidate who wants to get elected will cut deals with corporations in exchange for their billions in advertising support. It means Goldman Sachs will decide elections. It means Chubb and Cigna and General Electric and Microsoft and Astra Zeneca will put their people in place in our government, who will pass and enforce legislation favorable to their special interests.

Those who are happy with the Supreme Court's decision believe that large corporations are good, that they know what is best for us, that we should yield our rights and interests for the greater good as defined by large corporations' boardrooms. It means more Enrons, more AIGs, more Lehman Brothers, more World Coms. It means gasoline prices of $10 a gallon if Exxon Mobil decides it needs the money, it means free loans to Wall Street firms so they can invest the money and make more profits and distribute larger bonuses to executives. It means biologically developed diseases being spread over land masses in order to sell more drugs to cure those diseases. It means higher health insurance premiums, mandatory health exams to keep that insurance. It means the elimination of unemployment insurance, elimination of the minimum wage, elimination of social security. It means firing without cause and without severance. It means invasion of your privacy, requiring you to have a chip under the skin on your hand or forehead in order to buy or sell anything.

It means the elimination of antitrust laws prohibiting monopolies, it means the gobbling up of small businesses through unfair business practices. It means more wars so large corporations that produce military resources can profit. It means the changing of all laws and regulations to suit the desires of large corporations. It means no benefits for full time workers. It means requiring more hours or risk getting fired. It means euthanizing patients who are sick and costing insurance companies too much to keep alive.

This Supreme Court ruling changes everything. Whether you are conservative or liberal, you are now a slave, a serf, within the new ruling class, the large corporations. Power will be in the hands of the few CEOs and majority shareholders of the large corporations. Elected officials will be puppets.

The result cannot be good. For those of you who thought those large Head & Shoulders patterns in major stock indices with downside targets of zero were ridiculous, I'll bet none of you anticipated this Supreme Court ruling. Markets know the future. They know where they are headed next. They foresee tomorrow's news today. There are likely more surprises coming down the pike, which will assure the destruction of capitalism, of world economies. This is scary stuff. This decision by the Supreme Court has arrived like a thief in the night. It sets the table for one-world government as future purchased politicians yield to the wishes of large multi-national corporation sponsors."

Watch (it go DOWN) List

If "IT'S" here, there's no need for a watch list, if you can't, or won't, short, then you should be standing aside, or sitting in treasuries, or the dollar, some thing like that. I'm not so sure that "IT'S" here just yet, I mean, we aren't EVEN close to what could be considered a down trend, yet, hell, the Q's haven't even broken that uptrend line that goes back to July, yet, although the SPY and the DIA have, the DIA even broke below the 50dma. I know that EWI was all over the airwave's today, proclaiming "IT'S" here, it's time has come, wad ever.
"IT", of course, is the "REALIZATION" wave, some times called the "C" wave, I'm not going to go into all the gory details, I did that on Monday, but the "REALIZATION" wave comes when "they" realize that the rally out of March really is the absolute bull shit it was, based on pure hope and salesmanship by the Street trying to sell the public it's worthless stocks, and the economy really isn't what the lying slime bag government has been lying about with their "creative" little reports, and that the market is definitely NOT CHEAP! Wad ever.

ANYWAY, like I said, I'm not so sure it's here, we had the biggest volume in the Q's and SPY that we've had since the first part of the bear market ended (eeeerrrrr, started to REST, and catch it's breath), AND, we have BIG support coming up in the $45, down to about the $44.56 "area", that's the break out point, which is that top green horizontal line, and if you look to the left, the previous little pull backs we had ended on BIG volume.
Now, we could, or probably, WILL, bounce in that area, in fact we may open up there in the morning, I'm not sure, but if we do, I'm not really going to like it, I mean, I WILL, because I have some short puts, my 60min McClellan is in over sold territory, although it did the typical MORE over sold today, hahahahaha, roach (I'm not really laughing, that's kind of a sigh laugh), but if we do bounce, and start wallowing back up under the old highs, I'm probably going to get REALLY aggresive selling OTM calls on this thing, above those highs, and sit back and say come and get me MF'er's! The only reason I won't like it, is because we probably move back up into that lousy range again, sigh, and start all over with the BS.
Now, if "free markets", through the grace of god, should prevail, and we actually DO start to move down, then it's going to get fun. We have a huge "congestion" area between 43 and that 44.56 break out zone, and I could see us easily going down to that first pivot point around 43, from late November. This is really, the infamous "line in the sand", for if we get there, then we will be over sold on the indicators, both the Stoch and RSI as shown in the circles, and we should definitely bounce in that area, which is cool. What I plan on happening then, is that what was once support, becomes resistance, which is the $44.56 break out line. So we bounce up to that "area", possibly setting up a kind of head and shoulders thingey, fail to get over it, then head back down, and once we break that $43 level, IT'S SADIE BAR THE FRICKING DOOR!! They are going to be beating themselves over the head trying to be the first one out the fire door, hahahaha!! We have nothing but clear air, or a VOID, under that area down to about $40.50, which will also be in the area of the rising 200dma, so that will be another support area.
That will be about a 13% correction, which is a nice little correction, I figure we bounce around in there, between 40.50 and that previous support of 43, as that is a pretty big congestion area, in and of itself. But the dye will be cast by that point, and it will only be a matter of time before we break the 200dma, and really get rolling, and of course the March low's will be square in the site's by then, I figure we probably go 50% below those March lows, before people actually start finding some REAL value in this market. Remember, we go DOWN, at least TWICE as fast as we go up, so it took us nine months to reach this stupid "top", so we should hit the "FINAL" bottom some time in the middle of the summer, probably July, when the Q's hit about $12 bucks, the SPY about 33, and the DIA, about, oh, who fricking cares where they go. The actual time frame will vary, depending on when we break that $43 level, if they screw around with us until the April earnings season, just to try and confirm to themselves that it really was BS, then it could push the bottom into October, which is when most bear markets end, and this year it would be perfect, as we bottom just before the rally into the election, and the next year, when we find out we got rid of a bunch of those idiots in Washington, and get some sensible people running the country (yeeeeeeaaaa, rrriiiiiigggghhhttt, like THAT's ever going to happen).

Anyway, that's my story, and I'm sticking to it, at least, until we break the current highs with some authority.

Rolling on the Hudson

2:00PM: Geeze, talk about "Being in the KNOW", the A/D chart at the bottom shows every thing was just all honkey dorrey, and then we just started falling out of bed about 45 minutes into the session at the yellow circle at the top, it shows up really well on the 15min pivot chart. I mean, at first I didn't think much of it, but it soon became obvious it was news driven, and I'm telling ya, I checked every damn news source and TV crap I could, and nobody could figure out any "reason" why we were falling out of bed. Anyway, the reason obviously came with the Obama announcement, which came a full hour and a half later, nothing like knowing what's coming to be able to make money in the markets.

The Q's tried to make an equal move from yesterday, they actually came up just short of it on the pivot chart, but currently GOOG has just reported, and the Q's are actually UNDER the bottom of that equal move line, trading currently at 45.27. I don't have a daily chart of the Q's up, I put the SPX up to show how it touched the 50dma today, but the important thing is that it broke UNDER the range we've been in, whether the "relief pitcher" comes in to "save" us tomorrow is another thing, but the break has been made. It's debatable if the Q's have really made the break lower yet or not, we probably find out tomorrow.

7:00am: For "conservative" inwestors, you could "probably" do a lot worse than Hudson City Bank, I bring it up because they reported yesterday, here's a quick summary of the report, http://bit.ly/5Cw9pa . Some of their good aspects, other than a song about them http://bit.ly/If8aX , are that they do not, DO NOT, take on subprime loans or adjustable-rate mortgages, they are very conservative, I have seen the CEO in interviews several times, and I think he's a pretty straight shooter. They've raised their dividend every year since going public, right now it's yielding just over 4%, as the chart above shows, you won't get rich "gambling" on this thing, but it's pretty consistant, and will eventually get back to it's $20 area.
Ok, that's all the nice stuff, but here's why I'm actually mentioning it, when you read that report, what jump's out at me immediately, is the huge jump in provision for loan losses and the increase in non-performing loans, wow, I mean, they are just HUGE! I mean, here's probably one of the single most conservative banks in the sector, making what they thought were fairly safe loans to the most eligible borrower's they could find, and their defaults have more than tripled since last year, when it was assumed we were at the height of the crisis!!! I mean, call me crazy, but I hardly think the "crisis" is over. Wad ever, you can probably accumulate this thing at lower levels, should you be so inclined to invest.

Futures were fairly flat, even after all the buzz last night, and then GS reported greeeeeaaatttt earnings, and we dropped 30 points on the DOW, hahahahahaha! Yea yea yea, the fact that the weekly claims jumped 40,000 maaaaaayyy have had some thing to do with it, but I prefer to think it's a Goldie backlash. Speaking of gold (I was wasn't I???), the dollar was flying, gold was DOWN, and oil was UP, and bonds DOWN, hahaha, all your typical conflicting data BS in this BS market. You might want to be a little careful going into 10am, as we get another report on the LEI's, the Leading GDP indicators.
Speaking of BS (I was, wasn't I???), I think our El Presidente may be following in Bushie's foot steps, and completely losing it, http://bit.ly/7P72xZ . I mean, my god man, if this isn't the most idiotic statement I've heard him make since, well, probably yesterday, "Obama separately told ABC News in an interview that the surprise defeat of his Democratic Party candidate in Massachusetts on Tuesday reflected anger over bankers' bailouts and double-digit unemployment.", I mean, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, geeze, he's got tunnel vision worse than pukin Pelosi, Brown won because of the backlash over his own State's manatory health care that has done nothing but RAISE the costs, and the Democrap's insistence on jamming this thing down our throats, when the majority of people in the country have consistently been against it! Not to mention the "Spending Bill", that is partially responsible for the 10% unemployment, as most of the money went to their pet projects, rather than true job creation, with most of the monely being spent coming conviently just before the election this year, ROACH'S!

Have a nice day out there in La La Land.

Mid-Week Swing Trade Update

Before I go on, I should mention that SBUX, EBAY, STX and GOOG are all up in the after hours on news, the Q's are reacting by moving up almost to that 50% retracement level I talked about in the previous post, I mean, THIS MARKET SUCKS, AND I TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANYONE WHO HOLDS STOCKS OVER NIGHT! You are at great risk, BOTH WAYS, we are going to break out of this range, OF COURSE, which way I have no idea. The best way I see of making it through, is to maybe take a stock you like out of the list's above, and if it's a buy, try and day trade into it, treating what ever time frame chart you use as a COMPLETE setup in and of itself, and if you get it going in the direction you like, maybe like sell half of it, and keep tight stops on the rest of it. Wad ever.

ANYWAY, I could find NOTHING I liked, on the scan of the ETF's and Russell 1000, the list I showed the other day is still in play, so I went to the Russell 3000, which includes some midcap and small caps, that bottom list is the weekly buys and sells for it, it's to BIG, and I'm NOT going through it, go through it yourself and see if some thing you like shows up on the list.

The top is the list and charts for the daily swing trade signals, I'm not really wild about most of them, the only ones I could REMOTELY deem fairly possible, are the ones on the charts. TSRA had an inside day today, after going down, and then GAPPING down, I mean, the only GOOD thing I see on this, is your stop is extremely tight, under the lows of this little consolidation. Surprisingly, I really wasn't all that wild about the short signals either, TBI and JACK, JACK had a nice candle today, kind of a BOF, break out failure, and "could" have room to drop, if it get's under yesterday's lows.

Consumer confidence is showing some disturbing signals in the weekly ABC poll, http://bit.ly/5w5PS2 , as the consumer is starting to retreat again, I mean, fricking Wall Street just lives in absolute La La Land, REAL PEOPLE, are not feeling all that great about their situations.

On a little side note, I probably agree with just about every thing this guy says, http://bit.ly/90vmkE .

1/20/10

2:00pm: I did ok on the sold calls, I covered the first half quite early (naturally), but hung on to the second half and covered when we got to the congestion area from a prior gap fill, that green horizontal line. I then started to sell puts, and started adding to them on the fairly cool double bottom, BUT, we started to struggle at the VWAP, at the arrow, a five minute chart shows it a lot clearer, and being the CS I Yam I dumped out, to early naturally, but I can pull a Pelosi and try to justify it, as the A/D's and TICK's were really weak, so any up move had to be taken with a grain of salt. All in all, not to bad of a day, I'm probably done for the week, Ta Ta, and don't forget, Klaatu Barada Nikto!, keep the Bot's at bay.

By the by, I took the 60min pictures earlier, so it appears the void was working it's magic, it wouldn't surpise me at all to see like a 50% retracement of the drop today, which would be around $46.10, before starting our descent into the depths of hell again.

The 60min chart has my MAJOR support area on it, in the circle (SIGH, the circle is not on there, it's supposed to be around $45), and first target,and should the impossible happen and we continue to move down, we have the next unfilled gap from 12/22 right at $45, plus that major lower white trend line comes in right at that point as well, there is an intermediate trend line, the gold one, that may slow us up first. The next MAJOR MAJOR support continues to be that unfilled gap from 12/18 at $44.46, the white horizontal line, which is also the break out point. Of course, DOWN is speculative, as the first big bar down this morning left a huge void, or air pocket, which leaves no resistance to the upside, SIGH!

My 60min McClellan chart is an interesting picture, it's showing how the highs the last couple of weeks have had no A/D support behind them, not being able to even get to the +100 over bought area, the absolute worst was the high on 1/11, the actual last high to have gotten to over bought was the one on 1/4, following the obnoxious gap, which they promptly sold, HAH! In contrast, when we have gone down, the A/D's have supported the move, taking us into over sold territory under -100.

The following stuff is just blathering bull shit (more than usual that is), I guess I was a little excited after the open today, I'd just skip it, I know I am.

10:00am: Wow, what an amazing day, I have to admit it completely stoked me out maaaaaaannnn!

It started last night of course, when it became apparanent we were going to have the most complete repudiation of the policies of of a standing American President, that I have EVER seen, just totally unreal. Even more unreal of course, is the effort being put forth by Pelosi to try and down play it, and rationalize it as "State Specific", hahahahahahaha, yeeeeeaaaaaa, rrrrrriiiigggghhht there Nancy, if it was any other State Udder Dan Dat State, I might go along with it, but with that being the first Republican Guard elected to that office in 53 years, and the President spending two days there, and the "sentiment" over whelmingly on the Democrap side in the Win one for the gipper side, the evidence of a sea change going on in the country is pretty obvious.

ANYWAY, I stayed up late last night, watching "Sunset Boulevard" for the upmteenth time, and was late getting up, when my computer comes on it goes automatically to my MSN home page, and I got involved with looking at other stuff, like all the "Top" things of the last decade, and then this caught my eye, The Mystery At Empire Lake , and I watched the entire series, there is probably going to be a dozen made for TV movies and books about that thing, pretty amazing.

So what's the point about the blather above? Obviously I wasn't ready for the open, hahahaha, I was about six minutes late! Aaaaahhhhh, but I actually was, for when it became obvious that Brown was going to win last night, I had completely given up on the sold call's, so my plan was to either, A- add to them if we got some kind of Trap Door on the huge gap up, or B- just take the loss and sit back and get ready for the next move. BAC was no problemo, I had rolled into a pretty neutral hedge position, with the possiblility of making money if it went up.

So, SURPRISE, we gap down, BIG, hahahahahaha, blew me out of the water, geeze! So I cover half the call's at the second bar on that 15min pivot chart, when we got under S1 and seemed to stop at yesterday's pivot, and turn my attention to BAC, another surprise, it's UP! Wow, big down day, and it's up, hhhmmmm, I haven't even looked at the report mind you, so what I do is blow out of most of the position I rolled into yesterday, keeping the 16 puts on the original position, covering ALL the sold puts from the 15 level, and I picked up some luck on the sold 17 calls, for we had a Volatility dump, that's because the volatility was extremely high yesterday because of it being the day before earnings, so people were paying up for the opportunity to have me sell them to them, so even though BAC was up 30 cents, I was able to cover them for just better than break even, this is based on the combined sell's on the original position, and the one's I sold yesterday after the add on, the reason I dumped out was to clear me up so I could sell the add on I made yesterday, on which I picked up just about 70 cents, which was my whole stinking week, yeeeee haaaaawwww! Basically I'm just about BAC to where I started yesterday, with BAC, accept it's up about a dime right now, so I'm just waiting to see what happens before I make any more moves, I may either add BAC in another add on position, if we go lower, or I may just sit on it if we start moving higher, I haven't really made my mind up.

I covered the second half of the sold calls when we reached the previous, PREVIOUS, gap fill, that is, it's a gap we already covered once at .56, the green horizontal line, and I'm starting to partial into sold puts, Feb 43's to be exact. I ALWAYS, partial in, and I USUALLY, blow it out on the exit, IE, I may not be "right" on the entry, but I usually start partialing in when I think we are getting a little extreme, but we could also get MORE extreme, thus the partials, mind you, I'm NEVER WRONG, but the market is wrong a LOT, hahaha (that's a joke). The blow out on the exits are easy, I have a "number" I'm looking for, and when it gets hit, I'm gone.

I'm not saying the people at CNBC are total idiots (yea, rrrriiiigggghhhttt), but they seem to have come up with a "NEW" definition of the January effect, Stocks Post Biggest Drop Since October , down toward the middle of the post they write "And then, of course, there's the January effect: Markets typically rise in the first two weeks of January then peter out by the third week." Hahahahahahaha, my god, that's a NEW one on me, as far as I've EVER known, there's only three possible debates of what the "January Effect" is: 1) it's the tendency for small caps to outperform the big caps, 2) so goes the first week, so goes January, and 3) so goes January, so goes the Year. Hmmmmmm, I guess I'll have to add a fourth one, hahahaha!

Watch List for 1/20/10

2:10PM: IBM BEAT on ALL metrics, top and bottom lines, AND, RAISED their guidance for 2010, currently they are only DOWN about $1.14 in the after hours, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! OOPS, a 1.44, OOPS, oh hell, never mind.

2:05pm: Hey, LOOK, when I said we'd probably gap up to new highs yesterday, I WAS ONLY KIDDING!!!! Yea yea, we didn't GAP there, but we made it THERE, none the less, god, what an awful market. Obviously, it's completely worth less to even try and do a watch list, there is no trend in any direction, taking any thing in any direction is just a fricking gamble. I'll spend my day in the Pristine free day trading room tomorrow, and see how they do it.

FAST is a poster child for the markets, it actually had the audacity to take out fridays close after gapping down 5% after that report this morning, hahahahahahaha, you read it for yourself and see what you think, Fastenal Company Reports 2009 Fourth Quarter and Annual Earnings , I mean with builder confidence taking a dump today, residential and commercial construction in the toilet, more and more people going under water on their mortgages every day, 2 trillion of CRE defaults possible in the coming year, well, wad ever.

I made a few moves today, none worth mentioning, other than covering some short puts, I think I added some short calls into the close (probably a baaaaaad idea), and I added to the BAC position and completely rolled out of all the prior hedges and into new ones, long the 16 puts, short the 15 puts and short 17 calls, all february expiration.

Q's had a mildly interesting little move heading into the close, we had a BOF, break out failure bar, on that five minute chart at the arrow, we actually hit the prior rally highs from march, $46.64, EXACTLY, on the button, THE BIG YELLOW line on the pivot chart, and failed to hold it, that's when I shorted some calls, wad ever, we'll probably open up at $120.51 after IBM reports tonight (oh god, don't EVEN say that, hahahahahaha).

I was going to show a daily chart of the Q's, showing the distribution days over the last two months, as compared to the accumulation days, but SCREW IT, it don't stinking matter!

I picked a hell of a week to quite smoking and drinking any more!

1/19/10

6:30am: "THEY", are saying the futures are down this morning about 1/2%, DOW about 60 points, which just got worse after Shitigroup missed by a wide margin, losing about 7.9 billion, wad ever, but what you have to do, is look at where we closed friday, as the metric for what they are claiming we are "down" on, comes from yesterday. The chart above is the up to the second look at the S&P futures, the ES, and as such we are only down less than a point from friday, friday is the third bar from the right, the little green bar in the middle, is from when the futures were open yesterday morning for a few hours, and that is what they are trying to tell you we are DOWN from. It's mickey mouse shit, I agree, but you should be aware of what they are REALLY talking about.
ANYWAY, I was up at 4am, and since I was watching the world to by on FINVIZ, and with nothing else to do, I went into one of my weird modes (eeeeeeerrrrrrr, weirder than NORMAL (I actually tried to call Abbey this morning, you know her, Abbey Normal)), I started running through a Funnymental look at a bunch of the high fliers, both stocks and sectors, and I was kind of surprised at some of the results.
Since AG was the hot sector for a while, I looked at POT, MON, MOS, and AGU, geeze, I mean, they are pretty wildly priced, but it surprised me that AGU, BY FAR, looks the best on a funnymental basis.
Steel is REALLY weird, I looked at X, STLD, AKS and GTI, WOW, X is probably the single most over valued peice of shit I have seen in some time, just unreal, I mean, not only on just a traditional basis, but in comparison with the other stocks in it's sector, I just don't get that one at all.
The metal stocks are another one that looks EXTREMELY over valued, like FCX, PCU and NEM, UNLESS, of course, you believe the hype about the out look for FUTURE earnings this coming year. Coal doesn't look half bad compared to the bunch above, BTU especially, but I weirded out over PCX, it actually had earnings of 2.23 last year, when it was HALF the price it is now, and it's PROJECTED to LOSE 88 cents next year, some one will have to explain that one to me.
I also ran through a bunch of the shipping stocks, and that really kind of surprised me, and what REALLY surprised me, was that DRYS, on a FORWARD basis, looks to be one of the cheapest of the bunch, hmmmmm, weird stuff, it's actually had a decent looking base for quite a while now, hmmmmmm. Also surprising, to me at least, is the most loved one, DSX, kind of looks like a funnymental peice of shit, just my own personal opinion of course.
Then I did what I love to do, that is, beat myself over the head and bend over and kick the shit out of my ass, and I did what you should NEVER do, and that is LOOK BACK and do the SHOULDA WOULDA DIDN'TA BS, I looked at BUCY and FSYS, I brought BUCY at about $13.50 last spring and FSYS in the $19 "area", and made a "killing" by selling them when I got about 20%, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, SIGH! The good part of course, is I held to my "DISCIPLINE", that is, the "DISCIPLINE" that prohibits you from making good money in the markets. Even though they've both had like ATLAS II blast offs, their Funnymental metric's actually put the above bunch to shame, meaning they seem reasonably valued even here. I was so depressed over those two, I didn't even bother to look at NTRI, which I "owned" in the $16 area.
Anyway, you'd think I've learned some thing, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA................. HAH!! Sigh, I think I'm going to go outside and lay down in the snow for the rest of the week, if nothing else it may slow that wretched mouse finger of mine up.

Good luck out in La La Land today.

PS: You'll notice I didn't mention the NasDogs, hahahahaha, why fricking bother, anyway, that over valued peice of junk I talked about last week, two weeks ago???, FAST, reported this morning, and completely missed, surprise surprise! I mean, I love the outfit, I'm just not to hot about it's "valuation" right now, anyway, Da Dog's did what you would expect, they are the only index of the bunch that are UP, hahahahahahaha, SIGH!

The End is Nigh Says EWI

I wasn't going to bother posting any charts, as Elliott Wave International, EWI, has taken care of the need for posting any thing in the future anyway, other than the best places to buy your bunker or bomb shelter, but what the hell, I went to all the trouble to doddle them yesterday, so............

The top chart is the "It Don't Mean Diddly Squat Chart", it's the daily chart of the Q's, some times called the NasDog's, I mean, all the indicators are on sells, as evidenced in the circles, but the "It Don't Mean Diddly Squat" part comes in the circles on the price chart, that's where the mighty all powerful invisible hand that controls all, stepped in to just completely destroy the previous sell setup's the last couple of months, as the Treasury and FED are in just complete panic mode when it comes to any HINT of a possible sell off, so, like I said, it don't mean diddly fricking SQUAT!!! It wouldn't surprise me, AT ALL, to see us open at new rally highs tomorrow morning, SIGH! Wad ever. If you even REMOTELY doubt, that Tim and Ben are running us, through their conduits like GS, JPM, BAC etc etc etc, there are plenty of sites that have information about this very "abnormality" (like he said in Young Frankensteeeeen, I knew it was Abbey Normal all along), like Charlie Biderman, who can prove the complete absense of the retail inwestor, which is extremely baaaaaaaaaadddd (damn sheep), as Da Street will continue to send their mouthy salesmen out in force, trying to convince the retails about how "CHEAP" this market REALLY is, that is, if you use the "correct" parameters to determine how CHEAP, and ignore time honored ways of determining it (that pesky John Hussman keeps bring up all those "Old Fashioned", and completely obnoxious ways), and they won't give up until they've sold every last one of their shares to those herding retails (like all those dozen's of outfit's on TV, who are in such a HURRY, to sell you their gold, I mean, if it's such a great investment, then wouldn't they just keep their mouth shut, and rake in the rich's???).

I put the weekly chart up for two reasons, numero uno, the "indicators" (remember, indicators don't mean diddly fricking squat) are just now flashing sell signals, even though we haven't quite reached my long standing target of $48, the red resistance line. Numero Doce, I ran a quick test of the weekly STOCH through TradeStation this weekend, mainly because I ran a scan of the Russell 1000 to see how many stocks were "Over Sold", on a weekly basis, that being the Stoch was under 20 (just as a side note, as if anyone cares, there were like a massive number of them, like, some thing less than 10, hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha), that's what the Equity Curve is about at the bottom. The test parameters were, quickly, buy when the Weekly Stoch crosses from under 20, to back above 20, then sell when the Stoch crosses over 70, with the sell signal being when it crosses back under 70. I changed the parameters a lot, actually I started with 80, but the problem was that it wouldn't reach 80 at any point in bear markets. This idea is for a timing system for "Long Term" Inwestor's, who might want to "trade" into and out of the markets. The Equity curve looks pretty cool, other than the two blip's in the circle's, I ran the test on the S&P 500, $SPX.X on TS, because TS has the Stat's back to 1960 on it. You probably think you did all right, doubling your money, until you realize that if you had just BROUGHT the S&P in 1960, and held it, you would have made 17 TIMES your money, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! "SYSTEMS", SUCK!!! In all fairness, you could "tweak" this thing quite a few ways, mostly if you used some "stop" parameters, to greatly enhance the returns, but they still wouldn't have beaten a simple buy and hold. One last interesting little thing, is the two circles, the top circle is, naturally, "THE LOST DECADE" that we just had, and Da Udder circle is, not surprisingly, the other 16 years we lost in the 1970's. It just cracks me up, the top of the Equity curve was EXACTLY when the bear market started, in 2000, and the other circle is when that horrible bear started, in 1970.

Anyway, not to fear, EWI is NEAR, hahahaha, they came out in force this weekend, I first picked up on it at Tim Knight's blog, http://slopeofhope.com/ , with the free short term update he showed from EWI, in which they are reiterating their forecast of 4 in 4, that is, 400 on the DOW by 2014. Alan also jumped all over it, http://allallan.blogspot.com/ , in the post "THE BIGGEST DOWN WAVE EVER?". In that post he also gives you a free link to the last couple of EWI Theorist reports, in which Pretcher brings you up to date on all the reason's he see's for the coming deflationary depression, and eventual 400 target on the DOW, which, I might add, according to that short term update in Tim's blog, has now started, really, HONEST, THIS TIME IT'S REALLY STARTED, ON FRIDAY EVEN!! (OR, as Tim points out, they have the little disclaimer in there of, "unless it hasn't", hahahahahahahahahaha)

My Elliott Waver, The Elliott Wave Lives On , that I kind of really like, is also making rumblings that "maybe" this could be it, it's finally here, the top is in, etc etc etc, and of course, I can't end the Elliott onslaught this weekend without mentioning the latest advertisement I got from Robert McHugh, is which he's not going so far to say it's here, but we are mightly close to the DEVASATING CATACLYSMIC CATASTROPHIC WAVE "C" DECLINE, coming your way this weekend in a theater near you.

I'm as much a sucker as anyone, as I just love reading that stuff, it makes my mouth water to think I'll be buying IBM for .50 cents by June, WOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!!!! In a more sober note, that CATASROPHIC Sysin tuned me into a Zero Hedge article, http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-banker-bonus-diversion , it's not the article itself that depress's me, he actually give's the most simple and easiest way to solve all our problems (it has some thing to do with "FREE MARKETS"), it's the little side note in the middle of it, where the FDIC is kicking the can down the road again, that being that they are letting the lies and fraud continue by allowing the banks to keep all the toxic shit off their balance sheet's for another year and a half, this being the SECOND can, as your maaaaaaaavelous Government was the first one to play kick the can. This article actually brings up a point I'm thinking about, and that is, that there is no way in hell the DOW will EVER get to 400, for what they will do, is just do what they always do, and start replacing the previous DOW componenets with new and exciting components, in this case, I figure by 2014 the DOW will be composed, ENTIRELY, of DEBT COLLECTION AGENCIES, hahahahahahaha, and will probably be about 30,000 (finally)!!

Anyway, I've depressed myself enough, I'm getting dressed up to go out in the blinding snow storm we are having, and get the camper off my 3/4 ton truck, I'll probably need the bigger one in order to carry the bunker I plan on buying at Wally World down in Cedar City tomorrow.

Weekly Swing Trade Ideas for Russell 1000 and ETF's

I'm showing the daily signals on the ETF's just as a courtesy, as the software continues to be completely ambivalent about the daily charts, hardly generating any signals at all, when you consider it's testing over 800 ETF's. With the exception of the chart of EPS in the lower right corner, the other three look almost exacty the same to me, the two buys are on Russia, RSX, and Austria, EWO, with the new short being on the Russell Mid Cap Index, UVU. Every one of those charts are the same pattern, the "Believe" pattern, IE, you either "Believe" the index's are going to continue to grind higher, or they are going to finally pull back and produce a much needed correction, almost the exactly the same pattern that the major index's all have.

I personally pay much more attention to the signals the software generates on a weekly basis, it's been consistenly generating more signals, the signals test out better, and produce more consistant results. It only has two buys this week, and one of those is a short fund, with 22 new short idea's. It definitely doesn't like the move the Semiconductor's made last week, with new short signal's on SMH, and USD. Other multiple signals in the same basic sector include the Mid Caps and Small Caps, Real Estate, and Agriculture.

The chart of the MDY in the lower right corner is pretty close to the same setup in the main index's, on a weekly time frame, the main support trend line that comes in from the lows in March is getting closer and closer, with a break of that line probably triggering some technical sell signals for a lot of investors. A true sell signal, or maybe even a short, won't show up until we get a down trend going, which would be a long way's down the road, as we would have to make a new lower pivot, which probably goes all the way back to the July low, as the rally from then has left no clear pivot area's. We could get a sharp sell off, and then a bounce, which leave's a nice clear pivot point, then fail to take out the current highs on any rally, and then turn's down and take's out the new pivot low.

The buy signals on the daily charts of the Russell 1000 are pretty much all the same setup, MET is kind of typical, although it at least has a four day pull back with an inside day to work with, the other's are more of the typical "continuation" pattern, where you "hope" it continues up.

TROW had a nice break out of a multiple failure to take out the highs, with some air under it down to strong support in the $51 area. ACXM and PKG both coughed it up after wallowing around a major uptrend line the last few days, stops on both are very tight, right over the previous highs, ACXM may not see support until about $12, with PKG having room down to $19.

The weekly is pretty bearish on the Russell 1000, generating only 4 new buys and 33 new shorts. TEG is typical of the buy "setups", just like MET above it's a kind of "continuation", or "belief" setup, I definitely do not like buying things that have a STOCH, RSI and MACD that are rolling over off of over bought readings, but a lot of people love that shit.

PKG is an error on my part, it's supposed to be TCO, EXPE and WSM are two of the weaker looking stocks, the other 90% of the "short" setups look pretty dangerous to me, at this time at least, as they are all stocks that are in strong uptrends, but generated marginal candles last week, like inside candles, slightly bearish engulfing, or narrow range bars, that "LOOK" like they could go down, but could also go higher. The only good part about stocks that are grinding higher with narrow ranges, especially sitting near the high of the range, is your stop is very clear, if you are willing to "gamble" on shorting them, the stop would be right over the current highs.

Earnings season really starts to get under way this coming week, so I highly recommend you check any stocks you are considering to buy or short, to see when earnings are coming out, as you can get huge gaps either way off of earnings.