Weekly Sector and Russell 1000 Money Flows

I want to apologize for an off color comment I made the other day regarding Charles Kirk, he informed me that he did not make the comment to which I referred, and I believe him, I probably could have used a little better judgement in my choice of words, it was not meant to be derogatory toward him as much as my disgust at my having reverted to some previous bad habits.

TLT was the winner, by far, in the money flows the past week, it was also the leading gainer, just ahead of transports, IYT. The chart of TLT at the top is showing some pretty positive developments, as it's climbed back above both the 20 and 50dma, they are trying to do a little mini golden cross, and both TSV and money flow are in pretty positive confirgurations. On the negative side, it put on a hammer yesterday right at the top of the down sloping linear regression channel that goes back to the previous high it made in October, it's sitting inside that congestion area from a couple of weeks ago. A little pull back would work off the minor over bought situation, and it would be very nice if it pulls back and "saddles" into those two MA's.

The interest in the TLT is a little disconcerting, for it's not like the major index's crashed last week, all of them were down by just a matter of pennies, when ever I see interest increasing in a mundane item like bonds it makes me wonder if people in the know, aaaahhh, know some thing.

I have the DIA chart in the list mainly because of the IYT comments below, but it looks just about exactly like the SPY and Q's, it's sitting just under it's 50dma, it's 20dma is starting to slope upwards, it's pulled back for a few days after making a recent 20 day high, MS is in a pretty positive configuration, and TSV is positive although down trending. The other thing the three of them have in common is that the rapid three day drop they all had out of the January highs left a VOID, and if they can get back over the highs we made on monday there is not much there in the way of resistance back up to those January highs.

XME was the best percent performer the last month, so Telecharts tell's me, but the consumer sectors have the better charts as they all made new rally highs last month from the March lows, XLY and IYC, with the staples just testing those highs, XLP, I guess hope springs eternal that the brow beaten consumer really does have "pent up" demand coming, helping the consumer has to be the fact that the dollar, UUP, also made new rally highs last month.

Also helping the consumer is that in the laggard sector's DBA was basically flat for the month, although DBC did gain a couple of percent, although the 10 percent rally off the lows is not looking to hot. Joe Terranova on FM has been talking up oil for awhile now, insisting his contango and backwardation studies are not boding well for the price of oil, as it appears the major players have been loading up, possibly in anticipation of an International "event", sigh. Just what we need.

The blow up in the transports is a little disconcerting, as the rail traffic reports have not very positive, http://bit.ly/9N72Wn , although trucking made a 3.1% tonnage jump last month, http://bit.ly/cyE6PH . I'm not a DOW Theory expert but on a very short term basis with the transports blowing through mondays high they may tend to suck the DOW along with it next week. On a longer term basis should they fail to take out the January highs that would probably be some kind of non-confirmation, and an even bigger non-confirmation would occur if they do indeed take those highs out, but the DOW fails to confirm by turning down prior to the January highs, like they did this past week.

Speaking of YRCW (I was, wasn't I??), I know the odds of survival are pretty slim, but at 40 cents I'm willing to risk a lousy thousand shares, on a "stop loss" position, for if a miracle happens and they do make it, it's an easy 40 bagger down the road aways. Just another stupid thing I do once in a while.

As is typical with the leading money flow winners in the Russell 1000 most of the charts are pretty extended, PKI was about the most decent looking one I could come up with, it broke out over the double top above $22, and has been consolidating for the last four days above that area, and "could", move higher. The only problem "I" have with it is the stop, the only one I would have would be under the wednesday low, which is to close, I suppose an "investor" could use an IBD 8% stop or some thing like that.

OIS, which I mentioned monday along with HUN as showing up on the earnings gapper from the Stockbee scan, gained 10% since the gap on monday, which is really cool, but it has run smack into the January high in a pretty, aaaahhhh, extended, position, but any pull back could be buyable. HUN went dead sideways all week, with TSV declining, plus it had a BOF, break out failure bar, on friday, other than that it looks just fricking great, hahaha.

I have WTW highlighted in the leading loser's in the Russell 1000 for a couple of reasons, actually about a dozen reasons, but number one being about holding stocks into an earnings release, number two being about how baaaaad it can be when it run's up into that earnings release, in this case making a new yearly high just a few days before the release, and number three being what a crock of DoDo being an "investor" can be. I would rag on the analyst about this thing, but I have to give prop's to Barclay's for the down grade they issued on 2/6, woooo to the investor that ignored it. It's pretty strange, as the funnymentals on it are actually really good, at least up until yesterday they were. It seems kind of strange to me that we have all this excitement in the consumer related index's, as WTW and NTRI are probably two of the single most "discrestionary" items I can imagine, and I'm not sure if I remember this right, but I believe that people not caring about how they look is generally NOT a positive sentiment read, as the boys at EWI would quickly point out. Wad ever, I prefer NTRI as my trading vehicle, which I made some change on last year, and in contrast to WTW it's actually been getting dumped all over since making new rally highs in December, although the drop has been a nice slow grinder rather than the take your breath away type thing. It is sitting right on it's 200dma at $19 as of yesterday, with a volume surge off the WTW report, and "may" or "possibly" have found some support, but I personally won't be interested in revisiting it until it get's back in the $15-16 "area".
Some names I find a little surprising on that list include NUE, MON got it's butt kicked (I hope it's efforts to control the world's food supplies is failing), SLB, WDC, HOC, and KO, there's a lot of chatter about KO being a bargin here after the post buy out drop, but I've watched it for years, and it's previous "bargin" levels have been in the $38-40 "area", I can wait.

The Q's set up a PERFECT ascending triangle going into the last half hour of the week, the yellow line at the top is last week's close, they popped us above it just seconds before the turn into the last half hour, and I said, this is it, there's no way in stinking hell they ain't gonna close us higher for the week, I'm going to make my FRICKING MILLIONS, WOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!!! The world is going to be MINE, WOOO HAA HAA HAA!!!

But atlas, SIGH, I'm broke again, I no sooner bet my IRA on it and they immediately broke us under the trend line, DIRTY ROTTEN MFER'S, IT'S NOT MY FAULT, THE MARKETS OUT TO "GET" ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That's it, I'm never getting involved in this stinking market AGAIN, EVER! Well, at least until next week.

Ta Ta, have a nice weekend.

Sprrrraaaaawk, sprawk sparwk sprawk, here chick chick chick, I'm out throwing my bird seed around trying to find that damn chicken, http://bit.ly/avpOOK .

Filed under the category of "I didn't know that" and "You learn some thing every day", I listened to Jim Bianco talk about the "seasonality" of bonds, it seems that bonds have positive and negative seasonality trends, just like stocks (that's a head slapper of course, I "should" have known that), and he says late February through April is the WORST period during the year for bond investors, more specifically treasuries, which have their only negative return months of the year during this period, corporates are also a little weak during this time period. He says the reason "may" be fairly simple, it's tax return season and in times of poor economic performance many people may be getting refunds, and thus the Treasury (AKA Tax Cheatin Timmy) has to borrow money to pay the refunds.

Also, and some thing that could be filed under the category of "Things you probably didn't know", is that I also do movie reviews on the site, last night I watched "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs", the third feature in the Ice Age series, and unlike some of these remakes, this was probably better than the first two films.
In complete contrast, my movie of the week last week was "Monsters Vs Aliens", and it was terrible, the origianl "Monster's, Inc" was much better. There, I just saved you the trouble of ordering it on Netflix.

After the horrible housing numbers came in at 10ET we had to wallow for a few minutes, as everyone kind of held their collective breath they were so fricking bad, as the Q's tested the pivot point right on the button, but then it CAME TO THEM, Waaaaaa Laaaaaa, OF COURSE, with all the money that dumb ass consumer is saving by NOT BUYING houses, they have more money to spend on the toys that the NasDogs make, and they promptly sent the Dogs to new highs, hahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!
Speaking of housing, it just makes me sick every time Obama talks about all the "GOVERNMENT" programs he's proposing to SAVE the market, he just refuse's to use the term "TAX PAYER", as in ME, or US, having to pay for all those ............................ NA NA NA!

Speaking of news (I WAS, wasn't I??), SD showed up in a scan of mine last night, it's doing a beautiful double bottom, had a three day pull back then put on a bullish engulfing candle with a volume up tick yesterday, this is one of my favorites as I've made money on it before (I ALWAYS go back to previous winners, meaning I only have about 2 stocks left that I can trade, hahahhahaha), BUT, I NEVER take any thing unless I check for up coming EVENTS, in this case SD reported earnings last night, and unlike EF Hutton, they didn't eeeeaaarrrrrrnnnn it, currently down about 50 cents in the premarket.
Very busy NEWS day for a friday, we still have the Chicago PMI, Michigan sentiment and existing home sales before 10am ET, lot's of STUFF to move us around.

6:40am MT: Hahahahahaha, pretty cool "stuff", that's an up to the minute five minute chart you can get of the futures at Finviz just by hovering your mouse over the futures down in the lower left hand corner of the page.
Anyway, the circle is the release of the "revised" GDP data this morning, it came in a couple of tenths higher than "expected", 5.9% vs 5.7% expected, the cool part is how "THEY" gapped it higher right into the release, then just sold the shit out of the great number, completely engulfing the prior bar, I mean, the "concept" that the outfit's that control the after hours and premarket futures, namely GS, JPM, MS, etc etc etc, don't know EXACTLY what the number is going to be before hand, is completely ludicrious, hahahahaha, HELL, GS IS THE FRICKING GOVERNMENT!! Anyway, they tried to suck in what ever "LONG" leaner's they could with the gap, then took it to them, the low it made on the next bar in essense took out the low's of the complete over night action, thereby triggering any body stupid enough to have a stop there, IE a classic "PIT" stop run, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see "THEM" take it higher and try and get all those people who got stopped out chasing it to add some fuel to the fire, anyway, pretty classic "stuff" there Goldman, hahahhaha.

In a more somber note I see where Obama is trying to jamb through more payoola for his Union buddies, 'Living wage' could be factor in govt contracts (AP) . I guess the $55 billion we paid to bail out 55K UAW worker's is not enough, now he's trying to shut out what ever small contractor's are left from doing government contract's. I did government contract's for 20 year's back in my General Contractor days, employing 88 people at my "hay day", and I can tell you that, yes, I paid them "less" on what ever small amounts of "private" work I did (I didn't do much as it was a pain in the ass having to chase them all around to get paid, ROACH'S), but for the most part almost all my work was government, and as such I paid the prevailing wage, which includes all the union benefits, etc etc etc, accept they got it in direct payments rather than an actual benefit package, wad ever, if you read the thing what this is going to end up being is a government employee using a "subjective" criteria to determine who lives and who dies in the government contracting arena, just typical political BS that is going to have the complete opposite effect of what we need to happen to get the economy rolling again.

Some one on StockTwits made an interesting statement a while ago, he said he was "reading" where the WSJ was reporting that hedge funds are lining up to short the EUR/USD down to parity!!!!!!???????????? As if you don't know what I'm already going to say here, well, I'll say it any way, the idea that you would actually commit REAL money to a trade on ANY THING those idiot financial magazines say is about the single most ludicrious thing I can imagine!! Any time they come out with an "article" that says some thing like that, and I don't care WHO it is, the WSJ, Barrons, who ever, that is about the oldest, most worthless information you can EVER get! I'm not picking on the individual who did the "update", I'm just kind of pissed because that is the typical BS that the Street is always pumping out, besides, it not the NEWS that's important (the big boys ALREADY know that anyway), as evidenced above it's the REACTION to the REAL TIME news that counts, not some stupid article that's probably a week old that's talking about some thing that's been going on for months. Wad fricking ever, do what you wantta do, I could care less.

Mid Week ETF Scan

Earnings Valuation for the S&P 500 - Not a Rosy Picture

8:20am: It appear's we may have found some "MAGIC" money some where, hahahaha, I imagine the presses will be running hot and heavy over at ZERO Hedge as they document the huge buys coming out of "DA BOYZ", like JPM, GS, BAC, etc etc etc, as the Treasury and FED rush in to try and stem the tide. Wad ever, we came up 5 cents short of the gap fill from 2/12, even I can't imagine that "THEY" can keep us from filling it some time today, but hey, I've been wrong about the power of Federal manipulation before.

I want to apologize to any RSS feeders for yesterday's post, I've heard it really screws the feed up when I do posting within a post, I've been trying not to do that but I guess I was a little excited yesterday. I've actually changed the look of the blog to only show one day at a time, in order to hold the down load times down for people working on a 56K phone line, like Sysin.

On another note, I'm thinking of shutting the blog down (AGAIN!!), and my TradeStation platform, I was buzzing through BZ's site, http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/ , and he basically has all the "REAL TIME" systems running on the site that you need to make money off of the Q's, it depress's me to no end that the best I can do is get all excited about a few trend and resistance lines converging in a certain area, sigh, all I need to do is just stay on his site all day and enter orders, GEEZE!!!
Even more depressing, is in looking at the posts he has on one page there is not ONE comment, NOT ONE, I mean, I can't tell you the work he puts into that thing, and the information he spit's out, I mean, you go to some Ahole's site and he says "Hey, I'm buying ASML and NTAP here, because, WELL, THEY'RE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE A COUPLE OF MINUTES AGO", and he get's 200 comments, like, "YEA", "I'm with Ya Brother", wad ever, it's disgusting.

A quick scan of the MSW on the ETF's produced some thing I was already thinking about, it put new buys on short and intermediate Treasuries, want to buy IEF and has a confirmed buy on SHY, I bring this up because I was watching the TLT and the last two days kind of look "bottomey" like. It has a yen for the YEN, YCL, and in the premarket it's up pretty big. Speaking of the premarket (I was, wasn't I??) futures are down, DOW about 30 points, no particular reason although I figure "investors" may be taking a second look at their love affair's with ASML and NTAP.
The MSW is saying to sell GDX, and also energy in the form of XOP, it also hates a couple of those weird Tech ETF's, IGM and IYW.
The software never ceases to amaze me, here I do this "EXTENSIVE" study on the Olympic effects and how negative they end up being for the host country, and with the Calgary fiasco winding down, the MSW immediately says to sell the shit out of Canada, EWC, hmmmm, maybe this stoopid software is smarter than I thought.

Bulkowski is noticing an inordinate number of his "Pipe Bottoms" showing up, http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html , "USUALLY" this is considered a "positive" for the markets, although I'm hoping it's just a pipe dream. What the pipe pattern is is basically an "engulfing" bar, although his actual parameters don't quite fit that description, but close enough, you can scan for these in Telecharts to get your own counts, the codes are as follows:

Bearish engulfing:
O > C1 AND O > O1 AND C <>

Bullish engulfing: O <> O1 AND C > C1

RATS, I'll put them in the comments section, blogger is not recognizing all the sick bird (aka Illegal) symbols.

The best bet is to check it out when the Index's put on a bearish or bullish engulfing candle at the "end" of a run (I put the "end" in quotes because of course at times it just never seems to END, hahahaha). I've also found that keeping track of the "key reversal" bars gives you a reading as well, I'd give you the code for those but it's proprietary (actually, I'm just to damn lazy to check it out right now).

I woke up at 3:30 AM with eyes wide open, usually a sign that some thing is going on in the world, I generally pay attention to this quanitative signal.

HMMMMMM: The Durable Orders report came in MUCH better than "expected", 3% vs 1.5% expected, so "they" promptly sold the shit out of the number, DOW now down 96 points (6:45am MT). The sell off may be more related to the EX- transportation number which came in much WORSE than expected, -6% vs +1% expected, AND, the weekly payroll lie, eeeeeeeerrrrrr, REPORT, came in MUCH worse than expected, AGAIN, with 496,000 people getting handed their walking papers last week, vs the ONLY 460,000 "expected", wad ever, the lies our government tries to perpetrate on us is just UNFRICKING REAL.

UNFRICKING REAL, or, Watch List for 2/25/10

Both HUN and OIS still look pretty decent since the earnings gap's a couple of day's ago, todays big gappers are ADSK and DLTR, both of which I would imagine might get a little backing and filling before blasting higher, but hey, who am I to say!

Peter Worden recommended these two DOG's as short sale candidates on his site tonight, ASML and NTAP, he doesn't base it on the "pattern", although I might say that they both look like they could go lower, he bases his reco on the piss poor money flows and TSV that he uses as his own proprietary indicators, wad ever, but I've known these things for ages, and they've both been DOGS as long as I can recall, so I checked up on their Funnymentals, hahahahahahaha!

They've both more than doubled over the last year, RIGHT, so, you can look at the Funnymentals here, NTAP- http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ntap&ty=c&ta=1&p=d , ASML-
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=asml .

So they've both doubled, RIGHT, so, their earnings must have doubled, RIGHT, hahahahahaha, ASML's earnings over the last year were DOWN 147%, and NTAP's were DOWN 70%, hahahahahaha! Ok, so analyst being what they are (CROOKS!), they have both these outfits PROJECTED to just DOLLAR DOWN next year into the maaaaaaaaavelous consumer who is going to be spending out the YING YANG this next year, ASLM's are going to go UP 22.2%, while NTAP's earnings are projected to go UP 19%, so, hold on a minute, I'm trying to calculate this, hhhmmmmm, it's coming to me, let me get this straight..................................??????????????????????????????????????

?????????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OK, I think I have it straight, ASML is this GREAT FRICKING BUY, because it's stock has already DOUBLED, while it's earnings went down last year 147%, and NOW, it's going to make 22.2% MORE the coming year, and you should just buy the shit out of this peice of SHIT because it's earnings are going to be 124.60% LESS than what they earned the year before LAST YEAR!!!!!!!!??????????????????? I mean, NTAP is just a fricking BARGIN, as it's earnings NEXT YEAR, are only going to be 51% LESS than it's earning the YEAR BEFORE LAST!!!!

Well, I can't even tell you my disgust for these markets, eeeerrrrrr, actually, DA STREET, but, wad ever, HEY, A man's gotta do wad a man's gotta do, STEP RIGHT UP FOLKS, and help yourself to these "BARGINS".

Here's another one, Macy's, hahahahaha, they blasted higher today, their stock is at 19.52, and they lost, LOST, $11.57 last year, but Lo and Behold, the analyst are saying they are going to make $1.58 NEXT YEAR, meaning of course, they "could" manage to make a whopping MINUS $9.99 than they made the year before last!!!!! I've never seen a Macy's in my life, but being as old as they are, I imagine they look like some kind of cheap KMART store, hahahahaha, and we all know how well THAT turned out.

2/24/10

WOW, this thing is wilder than a March hare with a scrub brush up it's ass, here's some thing you don't see every day, an Intraday gap down!!!!! I'd do some thing about it, but I'm busy packing.

GEEEE MINNIE CHRISTMAS CRIMMINIE FRICKING SAKE, THIS IS NOW PROBABLY THE SECOND MOST STUPID THING I'VE EVER SEEN IN MY LIFE TIME!!!!! Sigh, if I had'nt already worn myself out for the day, I'd probably go for it, hahahahaha!!! I guess Ahole Uncle Ben is saying some thing "THEY" like, sigh, ok Goldman, it's yours!

AH BE AH BE AH BE AH BE, THAT'S ALL FOLK'S!!!!!!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA. YEEEEEEEE HAAAAAWWWWWWWWW, TAKE THAT GOLDMAN, AND STICK IT WHERE THE SUN DON'T SHINE!!!!!!!!

OUT HALF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sales of New Homes in U.S. Unexpectedly Declined in January to Record Low

In probably one of the dumbest ass fricking things I have EVER seen, "they" ran us into the 10am housing numbers, into one of the single most OBVIOUS shorting opportunities I have EVER seen in my life time!!!YEEEEEEE HAAAAWWWWW, I'm so confident I already ordered my two year round the world tickets on the Lusitania!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm in a lousy mood this morning, Sysin threw another word at me last night that I had to look up in Wiki, geeze I hate that, but, at least I learn some thing almost every day.
Futures are blowing up this morning, DOW up about 6 points, I guess because H & R Block completely missed earnings and is down about 13% in the premarket, and the remark's they made in the call was what got me going on my bad mood, in typical Wall Street BS they are blaming that lousy cheap ass stinking consumer for not buying more of their services, saying that because of the devasating effects of the economy not enough people made money last year to NEED a tax service, and the cheapo bastards are either, HEAVEN FORBID, doing their OWN tax's, or buying some cheap software like Intuit, CAN YOU IMAGINE THAT!!!!
ANYWAY, their comments got me raging again about the Ahole yakkking heads on the tube trying to write the lousy consumer confidence numbers yesterday as a "ONE OFF", IE, it's wrong and the dumb bastards will come back to their senses next month, which led me into this article about the lies about the CPI, Inflation is moving faster than it looks , which I have been yakking about AD FRICKING NASEUM, which reminded me that my property tax's have been going up an AVERAGE of 10% a fricking year since I moved here, and my pickup truck license fee's went up 40% FRICKING UNBELIEVABLE PERCENT LAST YEAR, 40%%%%%%%%%!!!!!!!!!!!!! And thinking about that got me so fricking pissed off I naturally buzzed into the unreal bull shit that was being yakked about yesterday about the IMPROVING Case-Shiller index, Home prices fall 0.2% in December: Case-Shiller , in which the Aholes on Da Street keep trying to claim that housing prices have bottomed because the index keep's getting LESS WORSE month over month, while in reality all you have to do is LOOK at the fricking thing, and what pop's out at you right away is that the thing is DOWN 3.1% YEAR OVER YEAR, which mean's that a year after the stinking world was coming to an end because of the crashing home price's bankrupting the spending power of the average American consumer, THE STREET NOW SAYS IT FRICKING GREEEEEAAAATTT THAT HOUSING PRICES ARE DOWN ANOTHER 3.1% FROM THE WORST TIME IN FRICKING HISTORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I mean, SPIT SPIT SPIT, I'm so pissed off this morning, I mean, is it any wonder that confidence is just crashing???!!!!!!!!
The only good part about being this pissed off, is that the markets open in 15 minutes, AND I AM GOING TO CUT GOLDMAN A NEW ONE AND PUT THEM WHERE THE SUN DON'T SHINE, YEEEEEEEEEEEE HAAAAAAAAAWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!

Sigh, have a nice day out there in La La Land today.

Here's some other cute little headlines this morning:

Greek Police, Protesters Clash in Central Athens Over Austerity Measures" Greek Police, Protesters Clash in Central Athens Over Austerity Measures Don't you DARE take our welfare away, besides, Uncle Ben and Tax Cheatin Timmy will make sure the American Tax payer foots the bill for the rest of the world
Home purchase loan demand at lowest since 1997
Toll Brothers posts $41 million loss in fiscal Q1 ditto the housing remarks above
Bullish a year ago, Robert Prechter now sees "the biggest bubble in history"
Ahead of the Bell:SEC poised to curb short-selling , more commie manifesto crap
Saks posts smaller loss in 4Q notice how it is "positive", rather than "SAKS sucks as they lose more fricking money"

Watch List for 2/24/10

Hahahaha, you have to watch this video, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM_teDYGGkg , it's a couple of swing trade short idea's from Toni Hansen. I'm not laughing because of the idea's, they look all right to me, it's just that it's so nice to hear her voice again, I started my new "career" with her in her real time trading room, in 99' or 2000, some where around there, and the last time I saw her was around 01' or 02' when she and her partner brought about a dozen of us dinner (at a nice resturant to boot) who were in her trading room and showed up for the LA Trading Expo. Anyway, she has the sweetest little voice, and when you meet her in person she actually IS the sweetest little person you'll ever meet (pretty darn good looking to), what's so funny is that she'll have that sweet little smile all the time she's tearing your heart out and then eating it right in front of you if you are against her in the market, hahahahahaha!!!

Anyway, I have nothing to say about the market today (udder Dan wad I've already said), well, ok, I put that EXACT same daily chart of the Q's at the top on the site back on 2/4/10, with that first drop down being the first move, and then we could expect an "equal move" to the down side after that, after a little rally. Well, it's been three weeks and all we've done is force me to move the "equal move" parameters UP one point, hahahahahaha, rather than a target of $40 the down side target is now $41.

On the 15min chart at the bottom we had a mildly little interesting "back test", after the blast down after the horrid consumer numbers we had a pivot set up 1 hour into the session when the automatic trend lines picked up on it, we then had that "nice" (YUCKO!) over lapping bear flag that rallied back up to just under the S2 line, tested the VWAP and over threw a "back test" of that trend line, and then folded into the last half hour. The Q's are blowing up after ADSK beat earnings, up 14 cents.

The 30min McClellan in the middle is pretty over sold, which means of course it can get a LOT more over sold, but what it means to me is we could get a relief rally first before we resume the downward march. The low today tested the closing low of the gap on 2/16, and unless Da Boyz manage to pull out one of their miracle save's, I see NO WAY we don't fill the gap from 2/15 at about $43.80, once we get under that a quick look to the left says there's clear air down to $43.20 and then a REALLY BIG pocket down to $43.

There's a couple of big patterns hiding in here (which I didn't draw in naturally, geeze), we could be setting up a cup and handle on the 30min chart, but we won't have to worry about that until we take out the recent high at $45, which would confirm that's what we have. The udder one is more insidious, we now have a clear sloping head and shoulders set up, with the neck line coming in around $43, if you measure the height of the head to the neck line it "could" produce a drop down to about $39, or there abouts. Ok, I did a quick chart of it, it's at the top. Anyway, that's just PURE SPECULATION, but a break under $43 would start setting the possibility up.

Regardless, maybe we're going to have some fun for a change.

MSW ETF Trade Idea's

Stocks Retreat After Sharp Drop in Consumer Confidence , consumer confidence (eeeeerrrrrr, NON-CONFIDENCE) came in at 46, 9 points under the "expected" 55 and 10.5 points lower than last month.

Futures are down, DOW about 30 points, oil is DOWN, the dollar is DOWN, and interest is DOWN, period. The late day sell off is continuing this morning, over seas markets were down with some English government officials making bearish comments, that Q chart is a classic, a negative doji day followed by a bearish engulfing candle, PLUS it was a key bearish reversal day, PLUS it came at an important resistance area, PLUS the STOCH has rolled over, PLUS, well, screw it, I get the point, all it means it that it probably provides some fodder for Da Boyz (using our tax money) to hurt as many as they can, which would probably be the super intelligent bearish kind. With a couple of resting days like this we can probably expect a BIG move today, which way is any one's guess, accept for Goldman of course, Hahahahahaha!
I'll be hanging out in the Pristine rooms most of the day, Lator Gators.

I changed the parameter's on the MSW this weekend to try and generate more trading "prospects", plus I found out (I THINK??) that it wasn't changing the signals on the weekly charts because it didn't have the correct "Holiday" information on the exchanges, so it was continuing to move the first days of the week further back each time we had a Holiday it didn't recognize, I can't for the life of me figure out why it wasn't doing that, when I looked the last information it had came from the Holidays in 1997, hahahahahahaha! Anyway, it seems to be working for the "moment". What I did was include five other trading "strategies" in addition to the "7 Day Move" Strat, and then set the parameters so that it only needs to get confirming signals on a "majority" of the signals triggering in one direction on the various "Strat's". I pulled the hidden part of the signals on the XLB up in the upper left hand chart, now, what it did was generate a buy signal because it has three buy signals on three of the "Strat's", and only two sell signals, thus it has a new buy signal because it generated a majority of signals on the "Strat's" that had signals on them, IE it doesn't need to generate a signal if ALL of the Strat's don't have signals on them. I then moved the "BTAP" column next to the signal column, BTAP being short for "Back Test APR", meaning the yearly APR the Strategies generated on a yearly basis, based on their buy or sell signals. I like to see AT LEAST a 20% yearly APR based on the signals.

So, it likes the material ETF in XLB, the Global Titans in DGT, and hates the emerging markets, EEM, and commodities in UCI, plus, not shown was it hates the Rydex 2X S&P 500 index, RSU.

On the daily signals it likes Global Shipping in SEA, and the 1-3 year Treasury bonds in SHY, it also likes Japan in a couple of funds, Healthcare, Silver and Financial's.

It hate's Taiwan, EWT, which I should also mention has a new SELL signal on the weekly charts, and the solar stocks, TAN, my favorite analyst I follow on Solar stocks also hate's them, he has a target on FSLR of $80, as governments are finding out these "systems" are expensive as hell and very inefficient and pulling their subsidies (I should say WE are pulling the subsidies, as the "TAX PAYER" pays for these things, NOT the GOVERNMENT), as shown 40 years ago when the Solar salesmen were right in there with Aluminum siding salesmen. It also hates gold, UGL, tin in JJT, and energy in IYE and IPW, and emerging markets again in EWX.

MOMO MUTHA'S

The reason my body looks like those 20 year olds on the Bow Flex commercials is I believe what they say, that is I exercise 3 times a week, 20 minutes a day, really, HONEST! USUALLY, I get my 20 minutes just trying to put on enough cloth's in order to go outside, so I actually never make it outside, hahahahahaha! Anyway, after that nice drop this morning, I felt so stinking good I made it all the way outside, and decided to even shovel the snow off my walks. When I went out, this little Hawk was sitting on my gate, very unusual stuff, as I was only about 30 feet from him, and they usually fly off right away, but he just sat there, with his head turned toward me, looking at me very Hawkish like. I asked him why he was so Hawkish, and he said "Interest rates are going UP", and he then just turned his head away, and kept sitting on the fence.
Poor thing, either he was cold, the wind chill was 14, or he's (or SHE, who in the hell can tell???) sick. Anyway, I feed a few dozen of those little itty birds that stick around here in the winter, maybe he was hoping to "visit" with a few of them.

I read (red,wred??) an interview with the "Stockbee" trader this weekend, just type it in your search engine, or click on the link on the right, I guess he's getting quite famous for his big winners. He's a MoMo trader, trading off of earnings or news events, on stocks with heavy momentum setups, he only uses two Telechart scans (or, that's all he talked about in the interview at least), the first one is a break away gap, which is the scan I have above for stocks that had those gaps today. The stock I have on the chart is OIS, which had grrrreeeeaaattt earnings today, HUN also had a post earnings move. If your interested, here is the code for his gap scan, it's pretty complicated:

C >= 1.04 * C1 AND MINV3 >= 1000 AND V > V1

That's it, that's all there is to it, it produced the stocks on that list that have "True" after them.

His second scan is a "momentum" scan, this scan is even MORE complicated:

C / AVGC126

Hahahahahaha, well, anyway, that's it, and the stupid thing works, all the stocks on that list are pretty MOMO MUTHA's if you ask me. I have TSN on the chart because it's a perfect example of what he takes, TSN reported grrreeeaaatttt earnings in the circle, 2/5, and I'm pretty sure the stock would have showed up on his break away scan. Pretty impressive run up since then, hhhhmmmm, I wonder if OIS is going to do some thing similar???

Anyway, if you don't want to scan for this stuff your self, or are to lazy to do all the work, he has a member's site, where he does the work FOR you, although for the life of me I can't imagine he has very many members, his asking price is waaaaaaaayyyyy out of my range, $150 a year!!!

Just a side note, but if you are willing to do the work, he lays out his complete "system" in various area's of his blog.

Well, Maybe It Will Happen

If anyone's interested Pristine is having another free day tomorrow, if you are not already registered you can sign up here, https://www.pristine.com/Services/register.aspx .

The "market" is a flakey animal (like some one else I know), after loving it last night and this morning, "they" waited all of about 30 seconds to sell the ever loving shit out of it, opening on fridays high and taking out fridays low in the first 45 minutes. The Q's held a little dinky trend line that came in around $44.65 right after the draft down that took out fridays lows, I guess "investors" thought the Q's were fairly valued at that point after hating them 30 minutes earlier, wad ever, one thing I always do is wait until at least after the first 15min bar completes, and more often the first 30 minutes completes, before making any moves, and within a couple of minutes after that first 15min bar completed the Q's put on a horrendous looking bearish engulfing bar on the daily chart at the top, and since the sun is shining and the birds are singing this morning, I decided to hold on to the current positions for a while, and see how this plays out. If "they" have truely had enough of this BS rally, the Q's could easily go back and test the "break out point" at around $44. At the current time, 9:45am MT, we've just tried a "test" of the lows, rebounded and held that little trend line again. On a side note the current A/D's are almost split, 1311 DOWN to 1278 Up on the NasDaq, meaning, to me at least, there doesn't seem to be a compelling interest in selling, YET!

Beside's trying to repair the MSW this weekend, I made a major change on my McClellan charts, the equity curve on the 60min chart has been pretty negative, so I've changed it to a 30min time frame, which is the bottom curve chart, in contrast to the 60min it's been pretty positive since 9/18/08. Even better is the equity curve on the IWM, the 30min has had a "decent" curve since the "system" started showing results, and it eliminated a chunk of the negative curve it had on the 60min chart at the top.

I hope to have the MSW up and running again some time tonight, good luck out there.

It Ain't Gonna Happen

As much as I want the Q's to go DOWN, I'm slowly coming to the realization that it ain't gonna happen, the chart is a comparison of the NasDogs with the NasDog A/D's, forget the crap to the left, it was just me doddling trying to justify what I'm looking at, but in reality the Dog's are getting a huge jump in the A/D's, actually it's the biggest non-interrupted surge since the June-July pull back, on the far right the A/D's are about to surpass their old highs while the Q's aren't even close to passing their old highs, meaning the A/D's are leading us higher, and it's probably just a matter of time before the Q's make a confirming high with the A/D's.
The yellow circle just to the left show's the CONFIRMING move to the down side that the A/D's did right after the first of the year, when the Q's made a NEW HIGH in the grey circle, while the A/D's were NOT confirming the move, making lower highs. OBVIOUSLY, that ain't happening right now, sigh.
The futures are all higher right now, Q's about .40%, DOW about 30 points, as China tightened their lending rules, China tightens bank lending rules (AP) , so Da Boyz are interpreting tighter lending standards as GOOD, wad ever, sounds good to me.
I've been working on the MSW all weekend trying to get the quink's out of it, as it's not giving weekly signals, this has made me frustrated, and mad as hell, so after I exit all my short's tomorrow I may spend the rest of the day on it.
Da Boyz usually make their move at about 2:00AM ET, when nobodies home, so maybe the futures change by the open tomorrow.