Saturday, March 20, 2010
Weekly Sector and Asset Class Money Flows
The weekly percent change charts are at the bottom, and the weekly money flow stat's are at the top. There's not a lot of difference between the two as to positive price changes and positive money flows, but the SPY, XLK, and GLD show up on the negative money flows list even though they had positive price action the last week, although the positive price action was minimal.
Some things I find interesting are like the TLT, it led in the MS but most of that came on a big volume surge on Tuesday, but then volume declined the last three days, plus it acted pretty strange if you ask me (you didn't), it had it's big UP days on Tuesday and Wednesday when the Index's had their big UP moves for the week, and then when the markets were down yesterday it finished higher on the day, but, it's a lousy candle with a gap down, and then it took out thursday's high, but then closed down in the middle of thursday's range, it would have been a key reversal day accept for the fact that it closed higher.
The little guys, the IWM, fired a warning shot across the bow on Thursday when they finished lower on the day, with the SPY not helping much by finishing negative on the day but by only 6 cents. The IWM led the mad rush higher by being the first to take out the January highs on 3/2, the Q's and SPY lagged until 3/10, with the DIA not taking it out until Wednesday of this week, and the reversal bar yesterday actually took out the January highs before the "miracle" happened going into the last half hour of the day, when "they" managed to close it just barely higher than the January high, I mean, it's just a stinking MIRACLE I TELL YA! Anyway, the IWM of course led the major index's higher off the February bottom, gaining over 7%, while the DIA have barely managed 3%, which I find interesting because it's brethern the XLI has actually outperformed the IWM, which continues to reinforce my opinion of a pairs trade of long XLI and short the DIA. The leading sectors off that bottom have been IYR, IYT, XLF (Surprise!!!), XME and XLY, while there has only been three negative laggards, DBA, DBC and GLD, which I find pretty surprising since the dollar, UUP, has only managed a .25% gain during that same time period. Speaking of UUP it busted higher the last two days of the week, and had increasing volume the last four days of the week, and on the chart it's had a nice break of the down trend line on TSV, which is usually a BUY signal. UUP could be pretty interesting next week as it gets close to one of those "POINTS" in time, that being it's old high, the upper bollinger is beginning to flare upward which would support the price action riding it higher should it break over the high, or, it could just double top, definitely worth watching. A higher dollar of course is NOT good for the mega multi-nationals, like, the DOW stocks, which could be why they are lagging. In that same context, the yelling screaming yakking analyst who continualy yell and scream about those very same DOW stocks being the buy of a life time because of their heavy expousure to the "OTHER" world markets, should actually unglue their eye balls once in a while and take a LOOK at those "OTHER" world markets, of the ones I have on the list, not one, NOT ONE, has managed to get over their January highs, EWA is the only one even close, EEM is still battling it's November high, while FXI and EWZ are not even CLOSE to their January highs, much less the November high which was the high for the year, I mean, geeze, those markets look terrible, and they look like they are trying to roll over on the weekly chart.
I have to diverge here into one of my BS rantings, SIGH, but it relates to the last section up there, I watched a bull/bear debate between two economist, Stephanie Pomboy was the bear and Charles Liberman was the bullish inclined individual, first off I have to say that Stefanie just totally pissed me off because she completely blew it, her basic argument is fine, all the typcial stuff, to much government debt, the consumer debt to disposable income has been rising again, no wage gains, blah blah blah, but where she blew it was when she was asked about her investment themes, she's buying all the government bonds she can and is bullish on commodities???????????? Number one, those two don't FIT at all, if she thinks commodities are going up that means rising inflation which means higher interest rates which means lower bonds prices, and if her thesis is that bonds are going to blow up again with another collaspe in the markets then commodities are going to have another horrendous collaspe like they did during the bear market, sigh, Stephie Stephie Stephie.
Anyway, I like Charlie, and to be honest I got even more pissed off because I flashed through this site I read, http://www.mrswing.com/articles/ , and they have this "Economist" on this site that just, well, I just have no idea why he does what he does, but he keeps insisting that we are in the best times ever economy wise in this country, even better than the start of the great bull market in 82', he NEVER says any thing negative, and he does what pissed me off about Charlie, and that's just post all the positive bull shit coming out of the Government reports, with out ever questioning any of it, or ever bringing up the "ALTHOUGH" side of the stats!!! I mean, number one, that guy on that site, which I refuse to even mention his name, talked about how great it was that clothing, as a percent of disposable income, was the lowest it's ever been in this country, while some how he just kind of casually forgets to mention that the clothing he's talking about is made over seas, by people who are being exploited by our multi-nationals by paying them a dollar a day, while exporting jobs and destroying the textile industry in this country!! And Charlie fell right in line by quoting how wonderful it was that the CPI, AS REPORTED BY THE GOVERNMENT, showed there was NO INFLATION, which is SOOOO GREAT, because it puts alllllll that new disposable income into the pockets of the average consumer, while totally ignoring the fact that gasoline has doubled in just over a year, which is a DIRECT tax on those very same consumers, and is regressive to boot!!! Then he says, that he agrees with Stephanie about buying commodities, because rising commodities is REALLY a GOOD THING, REALLY, because it means that the economy is heating up, which will give that average consumer more CONFIDENCE about their jobs, while kind of casually forgetting to mention that that confidence has been trending down lately, AND, along with the other guy, he completely ignores the fact that the recession was caused NOT by those dumb ass Wall Street banks that took welfare from those very consumers, thanks to our marvelous Government, but by commodity prices that were going through the fricking ROOF, and they also completely ignore the fact that the average WAGE in this country has been flat or even negative for the last DECADE!!!
I mean, SPIT SPIT, sigh, I'm done, I could go on and on, but I don't want to appear BAISED like them, hahahahahahaha, yea, right, that'll be the day, wad ever, well, I will go on, hahaha, he brought up the fact that 4 trillion dollars has been put in the pocket of the consumer because of the rally in the markets, just completely ignoring the fact that they are still 27% POORER than they were two years ago, and most of that 4 trillion has gone into the pockets of RB's, NOT the average consumer, and ESPECIALLY into the pockets of those Wall Street bastards in the form of consumer welfare payments to them, then they take that welfare from them AND THEN pay themselves RECORD bonuses, I mean, explain to me again about how that's going to RAISE consumer confindence?????
Sigh, I've ruined my whole weekend, I'm destroying my CONFIDENCE, hahaha, double sigh!
I'm off to watch some reality for a change, The Penguins of Madagascar, http://bit.ly/4m4f64 , at least Skipper tells it like it is.
Posted by Cucca at 9:19 AM 0 comments Links to this post
Friday, March 19, 2010
3/19/10 EOD
As far as a position short, well, that's a long way off, for me at least. I'd have to see some serious divergences in the A/D form, plus I would want to see some kind of "set up", like a pull back, then a double top, or even better a lower high, for there's virtually no chance we make a lower low before that point, as the nearest current low Pivot is from 2/25 at $44, so the only bet is that we make a new HIGHER LOW pivot on some kind of pull back, then go back after the highs and set up some thing like above, or maybe a 2T top, where we actually break the prior highs and then fail to hold them, and then come down and break the NEW low pivot, to make a lower low, then it might get interesting.
Until that point I'm probably going to (YUCKO!!!!!) look to get long some kind of setup into the end of the quarter, arrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhh, excuse me, that was just me puking, hahahahahahaha!!!!
Have a good weekend, and rest up for Sunday morning, SIGH, it's interesting that health care stocks rose today, as it's probably a win/win for them, for if the Demo's cram it down our throats it means another 30 million customers for them, wad ever, I'm sick of hearing it, I'm also wondering if maybe this weakness today may be related to anticipation by the market of PASSAGE of the bill.
Democrats push toward Sunday vote on health care
http://bit.ly/dlTiAa
Posted by Cucca at 2:11 PM 2 comments Links to this post
3/19/10




Posted by Cucca at 7:28 AM 2 comments Links to this post
Thursday, March 18, 2010
System Confirmations
And Waaaaaaaa Laaaaaaa, for the "most part, they are working fine thank you very much! I think I have seven of the "EQUITY CURVES" pictured above, what I did was put the name of the "SYSTEM" first followed by the index that the equity curve was derived from, such as in the case of the bottom one here, it's the "KOP" system that was run on the IWM. If you've read (red, wred?????) BZ for any length of time you know his systems work best on the IWM, for the most part.
Most of the curves, as you can see, ARE REALLY GOOD, Woooooo Hoooooo, I like the GRANDSLAM2 on the IWM, that one's working great, also the SYSINPOPPER and the POPPER2
, both on the IWM, are working very well, and has been my experience the Q's don't work very well with the systems, for the most part, but that "KOPQ" is working pretty damn good if you ask me.
Anyway, there's a point here some where, oh yea, if you look in the RED CIRCLES, with the exception of the "GRANDSLAM2", the SYSTEMS have stopped working the last couple of months!!! I mean, they haven't completely broken down, other than the "KOP" on the IWM on the bottom, but that's probably more of just a bad fit for that particular index.
What's happened is we had the drop in January into February, then then started to rally, well the systems worked fine, and THEN we had that little drop in late February, what happened was the systems sold the LONG TRADE it had on, and then shorted it, and of course we haven't gotten over sold enough for the systems to buy back the losing short trade, IE the market is over bought like crazy!!! This is the same thing that happened with my McClellan, I MEAN, it's not like it's the first time the market has been over bought or over sold, the damn systems worked very well through that whole sequence, but they've stopped working, AND IT'S NOT THEIR FAULT DAMMIT!!!
Posted by Cucca at 2:05 PM 2 comments Links to this post
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
3/17/10 EOD
Just a bye the way, but in going through TradeStation looking for the breath indicators, I found out that TradeStation now has stuff like percentage of stocks above their 20dma, and all that good stuff, cool TS, ITS ABOUT FRICKING TIME!!!!
Posted by Cucca at 2:13 PM 2 comments Links to this post
3/17/10
My goodness gracious, wad ever, well, with this being Saint Patrick's day, and the futures being GREEN, maybe we get the luck of the Irish, and start a new run that set's that world record, Wooooooo Hooooooo, GO FOR IT MR. MARKET!!!!
The futures have been drinking their Green beer, as they've been green all morning, ALTHOUGH, they've pulled back slightly after the release of the PPI this morning, although there was nothing negative in the report, our maaaaaaaaaaavelous Government says THERE IS NO STINKING INFLATION, SO WE CAN KEEP INTEREST RATES AT ZERO FOR EVER, AND CRUSH YOU STUPID SAVERS!!! GET OUT THERE AND SPEND PEOPLE!!
Just a note on the FOMC meeting yesterday, "usually", Mr. Market doesn't give away his true intentions until the days AFTER the meeting, so that would be, aaaaahhhhh, starting today. The Q's are blowing up in the premarket, at $47.58 or up 4 cents, hahahahahaha, I miss two days and come back just to find out they are only 8 cents higher than the open on Monday, I sure missed a HELL OF A LOT!
Good luck out in La La Land today.
I've been trying to find out why GE has been acting like a 1999 DOT COM outfit the last few days, this is probably the best description I could find, "GE sees profit, dividend up in 2011, shares climb" http://bit.ly/9TLpvP , after reading it I have to admit it's cracks me UP! The CFO came out and said they might raise the divident in 2011, hahahahahaha, but that's not the funniest part, the whole thing was littered with typical hype bull shit, with words like "expect", "believe", "plan", "might", "potential", hahahaha, the one I like is "roughly", that's when the CFO said he "expects" profit in 2010 to be "roughly" flat with last year, ROUGHLY FLAT??????!!!!!! So, let me get this straight, being "roughly" flat with last year causes a 12% pop in the stock??? Of course, they did say that they "expect" earnings to be about 25% higher in 2011, so that helps, but the part about the dividend cracks me up, as they didn't say how much they are going to raise it, one cent, two cents, a dollar???
Well, wad ever, go for it.
Posted by Cucca at 7:29 AM 10 comments Links to this post
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
3/16/10 EOD
I have a 60minute chart of of the DIA in the middle because Robert McHugh sent me an email this afternoon saying there's a bearish rising wedge with five distinct waves inside of it, and we are working on a fourth wave triangle right now, with an expected move higher to complete wave 5, at which time THE BIG ONE IS GOING TO HAPPEN!!!!! Wad ever, I could make the case that it's a bearish rising wedge, but I don't see the five waves inside of it, he DID say he expects us to make a fake break out over the top of the wedge before the final collaspe, some where around 1180 on the SPX and 10,700-800 on the DOW.
I have a daily chart of the Q's on the bottom, because, well, they are so breath takingly OVER BOUGHT, hahahahahahahaha, I looooove these things, it's always fun to see how far the stupid things can go.
Posted by Cucca at 2:29 PM 2 comments Links to this post
ETA Some Time Later Tonight
I'm hoping to be semi back up tonight, although I won't be able to get back into the office set up for over another week, that's how long it takes out here in the wilderness to get a phone Teckie out here, and I DON'T mean Qwest, I wouldn't have those roaches around here if they were the last phone company in the world!
Good luck in La La Land, don't forget the stuipd FED statement at 2:15PM ET.
Posted by Cucca at 9:37 AM 0 comments Links to this post
Monday, March 15, 2010
HOSPITAL!
6:00PM: I started this post like, 12??? hours ago, SIGH, where ever I got to on the post about Clive this morning, that's when "IT" went down, it's been behaving badly, it's been obnoxious, and now it's caput, my main puter' that is, the fricking roachey things!!! It's in the hospital with the only Guru here in town, the one who built it in fact, so I'm on my back up. After being on the phone with my provider for over an hour, it appears the "ethernet" went out on it, I NEVER HEARD OF THAT, I'm working off my back up and this is five years older than that, wad ever, I'm in chaos. This things slower than piss, I just got done (right this instant in fact) getting the 44 Microsoft updates that it needed since the last time I was on it, I haven't even started the TradeStation update yet, I can't get into my MSW software because I DON'T have Telechart on this puter', and I'm not even sure it has enough disk space to hold all of it, I'M DONE! It took me two weeks to get it back last time, sigh, I hope it's sooner than that this time.
Anyway, looking at the Q's, I didn't miss a DAMN thing, other than a big gap down hanging man, go down BITCH!!!
I had some thing I was going to say about Clive, but I forgot what it was, screw it, hopefully I can get my act together by tomorrow morning.
I've talked about my man Clive before, Clive Corcoran that is, I've followed him since he started posting on the internet, the main reason I follow him is number one, he's very good, but mainly I like to get an UNBAISED opinion of what's going on in this country from an over seas perspective, and Clive is VERY British, hahahaha, I love it. He has a blog, which I have in the Links on the side bar, but he also sends out a daily email that you get before the market open with commentary on what's happening in the over sea's markets before we open here, which is always interesting, you can sign up for the FREE email at his main site, http://www.tradewithform.com/ . One thing he's done over the past year, which I DON'T like, is he's doing a lot more posting on the over night FOREX markets, which I guess he's more involved with these days, but he still talks about the US markets, and it's kind of timely because he commented on the IWM this morning:
"The chart below for the Russell 2000 exemplifies the pattern just alluded to, and underlines my comment from last week that high beta may not be the best place to be while the market deliberates on how much further it wants to push into higher ground at present.
Just as a point of interest and to illustrate the benefits of the Ichimoku pattern analysis which I have become more reliant upon, there are two arrows marked on the chart which gave excellent buy signals for this index in February and suggested that the bulls had taken control of the agenda even when the world was worried about Greek defaults and Chinese tightening.
The leftmost arrow shows a crossing of what is called the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen when price was within a cloud formation. This bullish indicator was validated within three days as the right most arrow shows the index piercing decisively through the cloud and setting the tone for the most recent recovery in equities.
As previously suggested one has to go out to the monthly charts for guidance on where there could be cloud resistance and it is in the neighborhood of 685 which also represents the uppermost Bollinger bands on the daily charts."
Posted by Cucca at 6:17 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Premarket 3/15/10 (Whew, FINALLY!)
Anyway, for you cheapo's like me, FINVIZ has FREE (the magic word) futures charts, as I've mentioned a few times in the past, and the over night is kind of interesting. The chart is the DOW but they all look the same, the first red circle on the left is the close from Friday, Da Boyz took us down last night after I went to bed and took out friday's low, in the second circle, then "they" did their typical rally into the 2:00AM time period, but they pulled it back this time and made a little higher low, and are currently trying to double top us. They "MAY" take us back down to test that low they made last night, and they might do it AFTER the open, this is why it pays to take a look at the over nights before the regular open, because a lot of times we open up, and then the market takes off south, and then stops in what looks like an area sitting out in the middle of no where, that is if you are just looking at a chart of the regular hours, but if you keep the over nights in mind you would know that we have set up an area of "support" that won't show up on the chart of the regular hours.
By the way, I'm not so cheap that I don't pay for the futures data in TradeStation, I just don't like to open the platform until we get close to the actual open.
Posted by Cucca at 5:59 AM 1 comments Links to this post
Sunday, March 14, 2010
pre-PRE-MARKET
AAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIYYYYYEEEEEEEEE, the futures are getting crushed tonight, DOW down 10 points, hahahahaha, roaches, I'm sure they'll take care of THAT tonight at about 2am MT, when I'm in bed, anyway, I'm not AAAIIIIYEEEE'ing about the futures, I'm doing it because the change over to my new domain name has happened, I'm now OFFICIALLY the owner of the name "The Clueless Q Trader", and the bank of Wall Street Lawyers I've hired has ASSURRED me that I can make millions, MILLIONS I TELL YOU, if any one ever, EVER, uses the term "CLUELESS" in any of their posts, I OWN THAT TERM, I WORKED FOR IT, AND DAMMIT, I'M OBVIOUSLY MORE CLUELESS THAN ANYONE ELSE I KNOW, AND I'LL SUE ANYONE USING IT!!!!
ANYWAY (there it is again), Google and GoDaddy have TOTALLY screwed up my "dashboards", like what I'm doing on the post here, and I have NO IDEA how this will look, so it's kind of a "test" post.
First off, congratulations to LEHIGH for getting the honor of facing the Number One team in the nation in the first game, Lew Alcindor and the UCLA Bruins...................................... oops, wait a minute, WWWWWHHHHAAAAAATTTTTT, some body on the tube just told me that not only does LEW NOT PLAY for UCLA any more, the Bruins didn't even make the Tournament!!????.................................. geeze, I guess things have changed a LOT since I stopped watching it about ten years ago when it truly did become the Ncaa playoffs.
I'm getting ready for my yearly battle with DirectTV, that's where I cancel them and then wait until they start calling me up, and we negotiate my monthly fee's back down to about HALF of what they want to charge me, THE STINKING ROACHES, I got them down to $32 bucks a month for the last year, WELL, SOME HOW, my stinking bill was back up to $49 a month the last couple of monthes, EVEN THOUGH MY YEAR IS NOT UP, I'm tellin Ya, WHAT A BUNCH OF STINKING CROOKS!!! SIGH, so what this means, is I get NO TV for at least a couple of weeks, to see if we work it out (if you think I'm pretty obnoxious WITH TV, wait a while, hahahahahahaha), SSOOOOOOO, what I've been doing is going through my trash can to get all those old magazine issues I threw out a while back, for some thing to read in the DARK (since I'm also in a fight with the City about my electric bill), and I ran across.............
HARRY S. DENT!!! http://www.hsdent.com/ . I was going through the Mag's and I found an old issue of EQUITIES Magazine from just about a year ago, it has an online issue, http://www.equitiesmagazine.com/ , and when you click on that they STILL HAVE the article by Harry from last year. It's really weird Maaannnn, when you look at the charts in the article he called the rally and where it was going and when it might end almost to THE GNAT'S ASS!!! Very Impressive stuff. I'M IMPRESSED HARRY!
SIGH, the only bad part about no TV is I won't be able to get my favorite channel, RFD TV, I'm going to miss my favorite shows like SHEEP DOG TRIALS, I watched two hours of Bull Auctions yesterday, woooo weee, impressive Bulls, although the crap they put out pales in comparison to Stock Analyst and Wall Street mouth peices, hahahahahahaha, US FARM REPORT, COWBOY FLAVOR, in fact they have a cool site for you BBQ'er's, http://cowboyflavor.com/ , HEE HAW, well, you get the point, you can get their weekly schedule here if your dying to tune in, http://www.rfdtv.com/schedule.asp?Timezone=-1 .
ANYWAY (there it is again), I'm changing over to a NEW format on the blog, I have NO IDEA what's going to happen over the next few days, so, have fun out there in La La Land.
OOPS, it's getting worse, DOW is down 11 points now.
Late PS: Just a note, I subscribe to the FREE (the magic word) monday morning Outlook at Schaeffer's, I think you can sign up some where in here, http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/ , to be honest, SOME TIMES, they have some really interesting Stat's about the markets, but it seems to me their CONTRARY analysis gets so CONTRARY, they CONTRADICT themselves some times, wad ever, I only mention them because they are the SECOND worse service I ever signed up for, not only were they WRONG a LOT more than right, but the service I had was an Option Advisory, and they take HUGE in the money calls or puts, meaning you took HUGE losses on the trades they were wrong on. Naturally, they were right on some of them, but geeze, the losses were amazing.
I say SECOND worse, because I took the Price Headley QQQ trading service one year, my goodness, far be it from me to say any thing, but after the pain was over, I went back over every one of their calls during the year, and they didn't have one, NOT ONE, winning call. That's just my personal experience of course, and is NOT an opinion on Price or his services.
OOP'S, DOW's down 17 points.
PSS: Sigh, it's getting so bad I'm going over where the reader's are coming from on the World Map, first off, for some weird reason, I just can't BELIEVE I don't see any reader's from Africa!!! Second off, I love Australia and New Zealand, like PERTH (I didn't think you had internet there yet???), Wollongong, Mosman, Morayfield (I thought they were in the Ocean??? They actually grow in FIELDS???), Stanmore (I tend to SITMORE), Ryde (YES, I DO!), I like Adelaide, there's some other good ones as well, for instance I'm LOUTH to lose money but I didn't know there was one in Ireland, I've been to Granite Bay (water's too hard for me to swim in), Algonac, Mich is all right, my youngest brother's middle name is Hiram, Ocoee (sounds like one of my Aiiiiiiiiiiyeeeeee's), cool stuff, I'll just watch this rather than TV!
OOPS, DOW's down 23 points now, at 6:58MT.
Posted by Cucca at 5:53 PM 3 comments Links to this post































