MON

I'm NOT sure if this is the buying opportunity of a life time, OR NOT, MON missed earnings this morning AND warned for the next quarter, I only bring it up because it's sitting right on a low that goes back to 10/30/09, the CLOSING low on that day was 67.18.

Just a note, but the Worden Brothers have been ragging on this thing for a YEAR because of the horrible TSV and Money Flow properties it has been showing, IE they think it's the SHORT of a life time, wad ever, it "could" end up being a blow out low.

"History may not repeat itself, but...................................", I, of course, am long gone from AA, and, I, have no intention of getting back in at this moment, but for the gamblers it still looks interesting, at least it does when you look at the last two reporting periods. The green circle way over to the left is the day AFTER earnings in October, hahahahahaha, you may remember the NIGHT they reported earnings, I'm still laughing, the Fast Money people were all over it, and CNBC couldn't get enough of it, they gapped way up and then crushed'em for a few weeks, hahahahaha, what a kick! But what I notice is the four day runup it had PRIOR to those earnings.

Flash forward to earnings in January, and the weird looking bar sitting out in the middle of no where in the yellow circle was the day OF earnings, they reported after the bell that day, and the gamblers were just wild about it, gapping it way up and putting a hanging man on it. Hahahahaha, this time they didn't wait for the open, they crushed it during the after hours and premarket, gapping it waaaaaaay down, and taking it down further into February. BUT, the pattern in that green circle sure looks like a dead ringer for the one we have now, the orange line points to the bar from four days before the earnings release in January, and yesterday was four days before the release on this coming monday.

Hahahaha, if you gamblers have any fricking BALLS, you'd take this thing for a super pump the next few days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'd take it myself, but, aaaahhhhhh, I got better things to do with my life.

4/7/10

The futures have been down all night, and are currently testing the lows of yesterday in the premarket, IE, we've taken the entire stinking BS day from yesterday out in the over nights, this of course will probably be seen as the buying opportunity of a life time for those unflappable bulls, wad ever, I got better things to do with my time. The "REASON", if you care, seems to be more of the "worry" over the Greek debt crisis, hahahahahaha, how fricking long are they going to try and use that lame excuse to try and keep up some semblance of the markets "climbing the wall of worry", sigh, wad ever.
One thing I noticed yesterday was the failure of the commodities, GSG is on that chart at the bottom, but if you look at that list on there, there is a whole bunch of commodity related funds that put on failure bars that look very much like that bar on the GSG, that's a little BOF, or break out failure bar, where the index made new highs and then failed to hold those highs during the day and closed lower, some of those other funds got this same bar, BUT, they also put this bar on in the same area as a previous high, IE a double top, like GDX and XOP. It's amazing how the market can see the future some times as oil is actually down this morning with the dollar up.

Dan has some decent Elliott Wave counts on the market, if your into that "stuff", http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ , I've been using my free time to try and do some studies and research and stop being such a nerd Waver.
I like Charlie Biderman, Traders narrative on the Blog List has an article about him. He of course missed the entire move up the last year (like some one else I know, hahahaha, actually, I didn't miss the entire move, just some rather, aaaaaahhhhh, big chunks of it), the author is ragging on him mainly because of his "conpiracy nut" stuff the last year, NOT the basis of his research, which is mutual fund inflows and outflows. I actually don't blame Charlie, for his "numbers" were not supporting the market rise, and with no where else to go he must have read me one day and decided being a conpiracy nut is the way to go, hahahahahahahahaha!!! Seriously, if he hadn't have been so right in previous years, like when he was bullish from 03' to 07', and got bearish in 07', I might say some thing like him throwing the towell in is another "sentiment" indicator for a top, BUT, he could also be right, sigh.

Hmmmm, Alpha Global http://gicharts.blogspot.com/ , saved me the time of having to figure out my feelings about the markets and put it into print, hahahahaha, thank you!

Dashing Towards New Highs

After the gap down this morning the "market" has been busy as a little bee dashing toward new highs, hhhmmmmm, let's see, first we have to fill the gap at .78, so it took 70 minutes to get within three cents of the gap fill, then it took 25 more minutes to get one cent closer, hmmmmm, let's see, the old rally highs are at .84, so if we go at a rate of one cent higher every half hour, hhhhmmmmm, that's about another four hours, or about closing time.
Woo Hoo (that's an abreviated Wooo Hooo), the big question of course is NOT whether we will make new highs, the question is will we have lower volume than yesterday, which was the lowest volume in the recorded history of Man Kind, well, eeeeerrrrr, at least it was going all the way back to last year.
Personally, I'm spending my time in a constructive basis, studying and researching, like some of BZ's stuff, and trying to keep out of trouble.
Good luck you you.
Oops, the little voice on TradeStation just came on and said order filled, hahahahaha, I'm so out of it I forgot I had a sell order in on AA from a week or so ago, I should probably watch some of this stuff, as AA just busted over $15 today. This is what it's done for the last year of course, bust higher into earnings, which they report next monday, the analyst all raise estimates and guidance, and then they report another DOG SHIT quarter, like the have for the past, ooohhh, thirty years, and they get crushed. Then I wait until just before the next earnings season, buy it again, and start the party all over again,  hahahahaha, PARTY DOWN DUDES AND DUDETTES!!!!

Since I was talking about AA, here's a little fun information for anyone wanting to get into options trading, I was in this thing for awhile, at lower levels, and almost three weeks ago I sold the first lot at $2.10, and if you look down at the bottom you'll see a big volume spike, and the Volatility indicator moved higher off of those low levels. So here it is, three weeks later, and the stock had to go 60 cents HIGHER than when I sold the first lot, to get that same $2.10, because Volatility dropped after the first day I sold it. The thing is, is that even though you may be RIGHT about the direction of the stock, you HAVE to buy options when Volatility is low, and sell on Volatility pops, or even though the stock may go in your direction, you can still lose money on them. I was in the January 2011 15's by the way, IE a LEAP option.

Watch (It go up) Ideas for 4/6/10

I ran a bearish scan tonight just to see if any thing went DOWN, HAH, some thing did, the Healthcare sectors, IYH is the chart but the other ones look exactly the same, XLV, VHT and RXL look exactly the same, a gap up with the markets and then they put on a bearish engulfing bar. That IYH has a bear flag on it but it's not setting up the infamous "Avalanche", as it's over the MA's, it has to go down below those MA's and then flag back up under them to set that pattern up.

Wad ever, if your just a mean ornery SOB like me and like to short shit, it's about the only game in town.

I have NO comment on the Q's, or the "markets" for that matter, all I can say is that this run up into earnings season is just about the single most HORRIBLE thing I can think of, wad ever, time will tell if I'm right or not, I was right the last two earnings season's when they did it. BTWIM, AA leads us off next monday, so it's coming up quickly.

I having an Elliott Wave crisis, hahahahaha, my Elliott Waver's are having a fight, so I did what I usuallly do, I'm doing my OWN studies and research into it. What started this thing is my main MAN, The Elliott Wave Lives On, which is linked on the left side, completely flip flopped on me and changed his count, he now thinks we are in the next great bull market for the ages, much like the bottom in 81', all I can say is you dirty rotten MF'ing %$@#$%&&$##$%^&!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hmmmmm

TLT and JNK have (for the MOST part) been moving opposite of each other for quite a while, HOWEVER, they are BOTH getting slammed today, the TLT was expected with the job report, I can only imagine the JNK is dropping as interest rates are on the RISE, with the ten year yield approaching 4%, which can't be good for the seemingly SAFE Junk bond investments that retail "inwestors" have been piling into.
That chart is the new setup from BZ, http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/ , with his Pivot Pivot indicator on it, I haven't quite figured out how I'm supposed to use it, YET, but the most important thing is that IT LOOKS GOOD, after all, that's ALL that matters.
The Q's made a brief foray over the high of friday, and I mean BRIEF, as it immediately got REEEEEEEEE-JECTED on the next five minute bar, wad ever, the animal spirits are alive and well, who cares if the stinking market is trading at DOT.COM type valuations, hahahahahahahaha, IT'S ALLLLLLLLL GOOD!!!!

4/5/10

PAL is one of my favorite old peice of junk stocks (I always go back to things I've made some change on in the past), for some STRANGE reason it seems to be related to the price of Palladium, hahahaha, ain't that a miracle, anyway, $PALL has just broken out to new highs out of a nice ascending triangle, PAL is working on a very nice triangle itself, and in the past when this thing gets moving it usually has a lock on $6, and if the animal spirits really get flowing, it goes to $9, just a thought.

Oil broke out last week over the top of the trend line, IE, it's in BREAK OUT mode, and is up a buck this morning on an Embassy attack in Pakistan or one of those frontier places, but mainly because of the earthquake that hit Baja, I saw on the news they had to shut a service station down in San Diego so I guess that's enough for the oil bulls to run it up, longer term it has an ascending triangle just like $PALL at the top. This more than doubling of oil in the last year is of course going to put a crimp in the consumer spending plans, which we ALL know it was the high oil prices that caused the consumer to shut down that led to the greatest depression since the last one, NOT a few stinking banks on Wall Street that got over leveraged.

Wad ever, the whole oil run up has been done on declining demand over the last year, I suppose if the consumer buys even less of it, oil will probably go back over a hundred.

Futures have pulled back a little since last night, DOW up about 33 points, which sets the target about 20 points higher where they hit their highs last night.

Have fun out there in La La Land.

Magazine Cover

Every text book I've ever read has always said you want to see rising volume on up days to support your bullshit, eeeeeerrrrrr, BULLISH, idea, when entering a trade on the long side. Hahahahahahaha, I'm tellin Ya, that's the biggest crock of shit, EVER, I don't know how many times I've mentioned this, but you can go back through as many centuries of charts you want, and the largest volume is ALWAYS at the bottoms, well, eeeeeeerrrrrr, actually that's not true as I see it above, as the QID ALWAYS gets it's largest volume at the tops.

Hmmmmmm, so let me get this straight, TEXT BOOK, when I get huge volume in the QID when it's rising I want to go ALL IN LONG, RIGHT???!!!

By the by, I STILL think that QID chart is the better looking chart for a long, but, that's just me, sigh, if I keep it small enough I suppose I can keep taking stops from now until doom's day, or it gets to zero.

Hmmmmm, buy the XLF and short the TLT in April, http://bit.ly/cqwhhi , that's the obvious observation in Rocky Whites table on page two of The monday morning outlook. My immediate thought of course is go long BOTH of them, you are guaranteed at a minimum a 2.5% return, GUARANTEED I TELL YA!!!!

Hahahahaha, WOW, is this like one of those magazine cover indicator type things!!!!???? Is the slime bag "STREET" so hungry to get the retail investor off the side lines they are trying to shrill them with dreams of rich's with only a C spot!!!! I have to admit, I think it's funnier than hell.

Weekly Swing Trade Ideas for ETF's

The daily charts of the ETF's came up with 18 new buys and only four new shorts, for some reason I'd say the dumb ass software is bullish, I always suspected this thing doesn't know what it's doing. I have BRF as the long high light, for no particular reason other than I'm interested in Brazil ahead of the Olympics. It's made a few higher lows and I suppose it could go higher.
The new shorts are all bond funds, the stupid thing does pick up on "themes" once in a while.

On the weekly charts it's evenly split between longs and shorts, five each. For the long I high lighted DIG, but it likes base metals as well, BDD, and a couple of "anti" dollar plays, FXF and FXE.
On the short side it doesn't like, SURPRISE, bonds, real estate or the banks, I high lighted KRE, it had a big wide failure bar the prior week and almost put on a negative inside bar this week, the sucker looks lower to me, like down to that lower trend line which is also the last weekly pivot area before this dumb ass run up, around 22.50.
It also doesn't like the S & P 500, UPRO, but that HAS to be a mistake, as we ALL know that "they" LOOOOOOOOOOOOVE the S&P's!

Weekly Sector and Asset Class Money Flows

The A/D's on the NYSE at the top made new highs, confirming the new highs that the index made on Thursday for the rally period, the Q's actually made a new rally high during the day Thursday but closed flat, dead flat as a matter of fact, anyway, the A/D's did NOT confirm that new high, and are still struggling to get over the 10 DMA.

Well, you could just take the Money Flow charts from last week and flip them upside down, every thing I mentioned last week as being "weak" was leading the pack this week, I think that's called "rotation", as any thing with energy (I said last week that was my favorite "sector"), commodity or emerging in their names took off like gang busters this week, and well they should, when I was coming back from my walk yesterday I noticed our service station had jumped the price of gasoline 20 cents in the last week, from $2.90 to $3.10, SIGH, this is of course an EXACT double from just over a year ago when it hit $1.55 at the bottom, just before the huge rally started and the recession ended, it doesn't bother me though because I'm comforted by the continual claims of the FED that inflation is "contained", hahahahahahahaha! WAGE INFLATION IS CONTAINED, not COST INFLATION, the fricking ROACHES!!!! As I've mentioned numerous times, with the only decent paying jobs in this town being out at the pig farm's in Milford just over 30 miles away, this double in gas prices takes exactly 10% out of the net pay check of the poor souls working there.

With all the negative talk about XLU I was surprised to see it among the leaders, the chart looks pretty decent as well, TLT crawled out of the bottom to finish seventh in flows, but I noticed the 30 year dumped about a point after the payroll report yesterday, so TLT could be a little weak monday.

The new senior indexes managed to eek out some inflows, but the Q's were one of the leading loser's, with XLF leading the pack downward, I noticed some pretty wild looking candles in that bunch of Thursday, real estate was next in line and then the dollar, UUP, geeze, when they dump that thing they leave pretty fast.

Hahahaha, god investors are a fickle bunch, in the rest of the ETF's my moo cows, COW, leap frogged  the money flows last week to lead the pack this week, much like Butler I guess, GSG made a huge move this week, along with some more international funds, and energy and commodity related funds.

Leading the loser's this week were a bunch of short funds of course, but of the NON-short funds it appears investors are starting to flee the Muni bond fund markets, this is the first time in a while I've seen this, TFI just got ripped last week, along with PHD and MUB, MBB is the Barclays MBS bond fund, hhmmmm, Uh oh, the "market" may be speaking spads about the FED stopping their mortgage purchases, hhhhmmmm, that gets my interest, I'll be watching that bunch, PIM is one of my favorites and it showed up on the list.

Four of the bank funds showed up on the loser's list, XLF, FAS, IYF and KBE, far be it from me to say that Wall Street may have some "INSIDER" information on the big banks, but they "could" be getting out of Dodge before earnings come out, which is coming up the week after this coming week.

Not Exactly a "Significant Other"

Hmmmmm, I bring this up only because I continue to see "people" trying to compare the runup from a year ago to now, to the runup in 03', Money Stream, or MS, the blue line in the circle, went positive off the bottom in 02' above ZERO and stayed that way up to the comparable time frame in 04', in the top chart, in the bottom chart we never got above the ZERO line, not EVEN close in fact, and MS has actually dropped even further into the current pump, making a lower high than the January high. Also, that TSV looks positively horrible, reaching a peak last September and making a much lower high at the January high, and recently making a much lower high than the January high.
Sigh, the sad part is, is that "they" can continue to pump this thing with NOTHING backing it up, a lot longer than I can stay solvent trying to short it. This can't continue forever of course, and "eventually", like the song said, "Our Day Will Come".

Good Friday

Yes Virginia, the "markets" are open on Good Friday, I'm not sure if they close in an hour or wad, the CME site said 8:15am CT which can't be right, anyway, you'd have to be nuts to be involved in the futures unless you were one of Da Big Boyz, and of course there's only two of them, Goldman and Sysin, pretty interesting move after the release of the payroll report, Goldman immediately tried to shake Sys out but he knew better, and being the bullish individual he is, he overwhelmed them with buy orders until Goldie coughed it up and went with him. Sys ran it up into yesterdays highs and then immediately reversed and went short trying to catch Goldie off guard, which worked for a couple of minutes until Goldie caught on and manufactured their own little pump, taking us back up into a double top of the double top. I imagine Sys has had enough fun after making it a "GOOD" friday for himself, and he's kicking back with his favorite "stuff" planning his next move on how he's going to rip Goldie a new one on monday.

ANYWAY, the "headline" number came in at 162K, http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm , but when you take out the 48K hired by your Uncle for the Census and the 81K that the BSBLS added in for the 100 new people that are going to be hired by firms replacing the ones that died, IE the Birth/Death model http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm , that leaves 33K, then when you take out the 27K new Healthcare workers that had to be hired to take care of that business that died so the BSBLS could project 100 new jobs to replace them that leaves 6K new jobs, I couldn't find how many new TAX liability jobs were added on the Federal dole rolls above the Census numbers, but we added 414K to those Federal dole roles with the number of people receiving unemployment benefits who have not been able to find work for longer than 27 weeks (no shit Gomer, if the Government kept paying me to NOT find a job I wouldn't be able to find one either), anyway, just a maaaaaaavelous fricking report, I imagine we gap up about 500 points on Monday.

EOW 4/1/10

I know it's just a miracle, but the closing rally took us back up to where the Q's could close right on the nut, flat, this of course after just barely missing taking out the last seven days in one day.
The 15min chart does crack me up, three closes out side the bollinger this morning on their merry way to the Trap Door set up, they stopped just above the R2 level, and then covered the whole spectrum by taking it all the way down to the S2 level, hahahahaha, woooooo weeeeeee, nice move today for a change.
The 30min McClellan is STILL on a sell, in fact I was going to mention it's Highness the Weirdness this morning as it was moving UP into the big down trend, anyway it's been flat since it triggered short six days ago.
I totally missed the call this morning when I said they'd lighten up into the close, what happened of course is that Goldman runs every thing, including the Government and the thousands of pencil pushers that come up with the payroll report numbers, so they told them to pump the ISM this morning so they could get the pump and then unload into the unfortunates who brought the good news (not to mention the FARM), and then shellack them into selling their shares like crazy, so Goldie could pick them up for a much lower price ahead of the payroll report tomorrow.
Hey, that's my stinking story, AND I'M STICKING TO IT!!!!

The guesses keep going down, originally I was hearing 300K, it went to 200K, and now I'm hearing 184K, wad ever, it all depends how many people died that the Government can add 100 more people on the report to replace that poor unfortunate.
John Herrman, an "expert" on the pay reports, said it's going to be held back tomorrow a little by some Abbey Normal things at the end of March, but he said the next one in April would probably be 100K higher than this one, and the one in June would be about 550K. He then said some thing that took my breath away, he said that if you take out all the "bad" areas of the pay roll numbers, you ACTUALLY get an unemployment rate of 6.5%!!!!!!!???????????? CAN YOU IMAGINE THAT!!!! IF YOU TAKE OUT ALL THE BAD SHIT, YOU ACTUALLY COME OUT SMELLING LIKE A ROSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

4/1/10

Regardless about how much I may "bitch" about the "direction" the market is taking, I'm actually getting a little encouraged by the action, I'm seeing more things that I consider "normal", this is pretty typical stuff.

We set up that Trap Door that I mentioned earlier, in conjunction with four straight closes out side the bollingers, we then got a little red hammer bar just before the release of the ISM at 10am ET, it comes in much better than expected at over 59, and the immediate reaction is a little modified BOF bar, we broke to new highs for a second at the green arrow, then came back down and tested the close of the prior bar, closing lower than the open of the prior bar. I mean, if you didn't get shaken out by the "fake out, take out", you'd be sitting on little gains, which I consider fair considering how strong the market is.

Anyway, with the three day weekend sitting dead ahead, the markets up ANOTHER 1% ahead of the payroll report tomorrow, and Tax Cheatin Timmy making some statements this morning: Geithner: Disparity in recovery 'deeply unfair' http://bit.ly/beWdCQ , in which he made some kind of shielded remarks about how unfair the unemployment rate was (IE, is it not as GOOD as expected?????), it wouldn't surprise me at all to see some "lightening up" going into the close today.

Just my personal opinion of course.

I'm probably wrong (I usually am when it comes to how high can you go) but this is a pretty classic "Trap Door" setup on the five minute SPY chart heading into the ISM report in a few minutes.