ROBERT MCHUGH

IF YOU EVER WANTED TO CHECK OUT DR. ROBERT MCHUGH, HE'S HAVING A FREE WEEK (the magic word), GO TO HIS SITE, https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp  , THEN YOU'LL PROBABLY HAVE TO CREATE A PASSWORD.

I'm sure you've heard the short replay of the insane action in the S&P pit's yesterday on the tube, Zero Hedge has the whole thing here, http://www.zerohedge.com/article/panic-and-loathing-sp-500-pits , the thing I was thinking about while listening to it was about how us retails sitting in our little chair at our "office", DON'T HAVE A STINKING CHANCE!!! I mean, I was totally absorbed in the action, and totally entertained, but the difference is amazing, as I'm sitting here in dead silence other than my audible chuckle once in a while, it probably helped to be on the right side hahahahahaha, but we have NO comprehension of what's really going on, for as you can hear there were NO bids on the way down, and then on the rally into the close, there were NO offer's from like in the 1070 area until the first bid was hit at some where around 1098, that's how they manufacture a TRUE short squeeze, as they wouldn't offer out and made the shorts that were trying to cover keep raising the bid until some one finally took one with an offer,  the only way to survive on your own in that situation would to have your quote page on to be able to see the bids going up, even though their would be no movement on the chart, if I'm explaining that right. Luckily, I deal in equities and not futures, so I don't have to worry about it, wad ever, pretty amazing stuff.

Now EOD and EOW 5/7/10

No particular reason for showing the Q's daily chart at the top, other than to show how we "tested" the 200dma again today, I still think that fat tail from yesterday points to the target, the February low.

However, the Q's 30 minute McClellan is pretty interesting, forget the fact it's getting it's assssss kicked on the last trade, shit happens, what's interesting is those stupid old lines showing up toward the bottom, hahahahahha, they all point to gap fills, the green one just above the close goes back to 3/4, then the green line just under $44 goes back to 2/12, but the one that just kills me is the yellow one that popped up at the very bottom, the yellow arrow points to it, that's a gap fill area that goes back to 11/6, hahahahahahahaha, woooooo weeeeee, they do act like magnets!!!

Anyway, I didn't get my mid-day nap for two fricking days, I'm going to sleep all weekend, see you monday.

6:45am: The bottom chart is the 5 min of the S&P futures, futures have been up most of the night and we had a spike up after the release of the monthly payroll report, at the green arrow, and then a reaction pull back, most likely with the unemployment rate jumping to 9.9% vs 9.7% "expected", ALSO, correct me if I'm wrong, but the "word" had been previously that the Government said that this report would reflect close to 300,000 of the temporary workers hired for the census, well, the report said only 66,000 were hired, meaning the "private" industry added 224,000 to bring it up to the reported 290,000. Now, far be it from me to consider myself a conspirarcy nut, but after the huge plunge yesterday I can't imagine that the "Government" would consider it in it's best interest to reduce the temporary number to try and induce a little fire power for a short covering rally, they wouldn't do that, RIGHT???!!!!
Anyway, the "spike" is probably the target after the open, I included the 15 minute chart at the top to show the daily Floor pivots, and the R1 and S1 in the circles, hahahahahahaha, I had to reduce the chart to get them in there, as the wide range bar yesterday moved those two crucial points out to a an unbelievable 66 points from the over night open in the ES, the DOW S1 and R1's are spread out just about 600 points, hahahahaha, just unreal. Wooooooo Weeeeeee, we could have QUITE a day if they take us to one of those S&R's.
This will be a rest day for me, as I just manage a few of my junker positions, and see how this all plays out over the next few days, good luck to you out there.
By the way, my man Clive, Corcoran that is, has some interesting comments about the cross market interactions and the AUD/JPY forex, as he thinks the forex markets actually caused the dump yesterday as the quants were forced to sell US equities to cover their wrong side positions, he is listed under the blog Morph366 in the blog lists, or Clive Corcoran on the left side.

Intraday Roll over

This is much later than the stuff below, 9:45am, but we had some more "intersting" stuff going on, one thing we did was right after the bottom line earlier, on the left side I have a yellow line showing the "matching highs" I talked about, well, in the green circle we had a failure bar, we were breaking down, like we should, and they "saved" it, then on the next bar they pumped it through the matching highs, pretty cool stuff.

Then it got intersting, they pumped it higher up into the declining 20ma, popped through and failed to hold on, IE  a little modified BOF, break out failure bar, this was not an "Alvalanche", the rise into it was to strong, you only want like a three bar rise into it. Anyway, what happened next, is we got a three bar pull back, which set up the opposite of the Avalanche, the "Pheonix", IE, rising from the ashes. There are two setups here, all inside the orange circle, the bar at the purple arrow took out the Pheonix for me, I wanted to see that close with a long tailed doji or slightly green, so that's gone, but what it did was hold the 20ma, and also the Daily pivot level, which is the horizontal dashed grey line. Then next bar then went green and closed above the pivot, you then take the far right bar above the close of that green bar, stop under the bar at the purple arrow. Wad ever, there's another setup which is the three bar setup, which was the three red bars, the take on these is to take it over the high of the second red bar, which is that upper yellow line.

Pretty classic roll over this morning, we initially tried to fill that job report spike out of the open, but trouble started showing up when we failed to even touch the previous little high we made before the close yesterday in the SPY chart at the top, we then started turning lower, typical Momo players would have taken the short when we got under the open or the low of the first five minute bar, myself, I prefer a "setup", which I got in the form of an "Avalanche", which is shown on the BAC chart just under the SPY chart, in the circle, my favorite setup, I was also watching GE and it set the same pattern up, the SPY pattern was not as clear but the other two made up for it. Anyway, the other "confirming" items are in the two bottom charts, the $VIX crossed to the upside at the same time in the bottom chart, and in the chart just above that the $VOL went negative in the lower circle, you could have jumped the entry when the $TICK's went below the Zero line in the top circle, or waited for the cross over of the 10ma in the middle circle, wad ever, all the cows were lining up to head for the barn.
We now have a major "support" point by the way, as we held the 200 DMA, AGAIN, at about 109 on the SPY, so that's the point that Da Boyz are telegraphing as the point to be an "investor", hahahahahaha, wad ever, go for it.
The Government lies were even worse than I thought, Sysin was nice enough to do the research, 188,000 of the jobs "created", were the dead people that the Government likes to dream up, he pointed me to an article by Mish, http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/equity-plunge-yen-connection.html , that thing really cracks me up, I've been a "conspiracy nut" for years, and we get one lousy little draft down and now EVERY ONE is a conspiracy nut, hahahahaha, wad ever.
As I write, 9am MT, the SPY has set up a six bar "matching top" on the five minute chart, be careful out there, we "could" be heading lower.

Now EOW (End of World) 5/6/10

Wooooo Hoooooo, Hahahahahaha, WOW, geeze, what a blast!!!! Personally, I sold my bond funds, and brought a couple of peices of junk, not much else you can do I guess, other than hopefully you covered any shorts, FOR A SLIGHT GAIN!!! The option quotes were just off the chart, the SPY spreads, that were normally like a penny apart, at one point were like a dollar apart, just crazy stuff.

I haven't had a drink in like four months, hahahaha, but I may partake of a little victory celebration tonight.

I could go into a long tirade here, but screw it, I've yakked my head off about it, I just hope nobody got hurt today. I have NO idea what's going to happen tomorrow, we went down for three weeks after the 1987 fiasco, from my personal point of view, and based on my "out look" I've been yakking about, we might do some thing like that, certainly any bounce we get from here in the days to come should probably be used as a selling opportunity, but who am I to say, every one has to use their own risk control parameters.

I've heard they aren't busting the trades in PG that took it down to 39 bucks, "some body" sure made a killing on that one if its true.

It's official, the 998.50 intraday drop in the DOW is a record, I hate to say it, but aren't records meant to be broken??? Like tomorrow, hahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!

6:00am: Futures have been higher for the most part over night, although it's been a pretty whippy one with a range of about 75 points in the DOW, the upper end has been capped by a little support shelf that ended up being resistance after the pull back started yesterday afternoon, a solid break above that top line and we will probably go, aaaaahhhh, higher. One thing that cracks me up is how the boys even screw with the over night players, hahahaha, we whipped around after the re-open after the close last night, and made a low spike, then rallied and pulled back to "test" that little spike in the circle, what "they" did, was take that previous low out I believe by one lousy point, hahaha, very typical stuff as "they" clear out any one dumb enough to have their stop that tight. The Q's do this all the time, it usually happens when we make a test of a previous days low, "they", will almost always take that low out by at least a couple of pennies, just to clear out any one with their stops in that area, before moving higher.

That's a pretty amazing picture, it's the weekly chart of the VXX, I put it up mainly because the software came up with a buy on it last night. The thing I find interesting is the difference between the previous pull back in February, in the circle, and now, the volume is about twice as much, and that pull back had a much more gentle move in the VXX in those four bars, while the two bars we have in the current move have already more than doubled what the previous rise was, there seems to be a little more, aaahhhh, interest.

The same store sales have been coming in all over the map as usual, I have no idea if they are good or bad, but the DOW just spiked down about 30 points from where it was above, we get the weekly payroll numbers in a half hour, which will have more interest with the monthly report coming out tomorrow.

Good luck to you.

Mid Week ETF Scan

The software is pretty evenly split on the new daily signals for the ETF's, with 3 new buy signals for about every 2.5 short signals. I put the new buy signal it spit out for the Q's on the chart, just so I could tell the software to get screwed! Wad ever, it saw some thing it liked in that candle today, the disclaimer is that the software trades the Q's like dog crap, generating a 5% yearly APR in the back testing.

The stoopid software is definitely out to get me, as it DIDN'T like the candle on the TLT today, it is a pretty lousy looking candle, a gap down tomorrow after the same store sales report will leave it with an Island reversal, or more to the point, an Abandoned Baby, poor baby! Not shown, but some what related to it, is JNK, it moves "some what" inverse to the TLT, and it's been getting it's asssssss kicked the last two days, with a huge whippy candle today, I get the feeling that "investors" may be a little, aaaaaaahhhhhhh, concerned, about any thing with JUNK in it's name, at this point in time.

The rest of the list is below.

In contrast to the dailies, the software absolutely hates the markets on the weekly time frame, generating only five new buy signals, while it has 7 1/2 pages of new short ideas, hahahahahaha, hell, I got tired of copy and paste so I only have four of them on the list below. I have IYR on the chart out of spite, god I hate that peice of shit, wad ever, the software also generated a new short signal for it on the daily time frame as well, so it has a "confirmation", the stop is about as close as you are going to get it with a new short signal, the target for me will be that trend line that comes in around $47, HOWEVER, it has strong support at the whole number $50. That $47 also ties in with the main support I'm looking for on the major Indexes, that being the January highs.

The rest of the list is below, however, the software may completely reset this list for the new signals next week, as it will run the systems again when the weekly candles complete, and it may come up with a completely different opinion.

5/5/10 EOD

2:00pm: Welp, obviously a "resting" day, ordinarily I'd call this a "continuation" day, but the problem is the gap down, plus it put on a nice green bar on the daily chart at the top with some decent volume, plus plus it managed to hold the 50 dma, plus plus plus we get the monthly retail number's in the morning, and with the economic data showing that "consumer's" have been forced back to their old ways by the FED, that is, spending more than they make, I'd say trader's were positioning themselves for a good number.

That 30min chart at the bottom has an interesting little pattern on it, hahahahaha, you think maybe $48.50 is resistance????? Suri Duddella call's that a "matching" top, the problem is that already had the matching top and then did what it was supposed to do, drop out of it.

The risk parameters are very clear, over $48.50 and we probably go after the gap fill from two days ago, under $47.80 and we probably go, aaaaahhhhhh, down.

7:45am: HAH! This is why I leave some of those old worthless "lines" on my charts, I flipped through the 30 min McClellan chart of the Q's after the open and Lo and Behold some weird yellow line popped up at the bottom of the chart, the Q's had dropped below it and then rebounded up above it, IE, it was acting as "support", so I switched to the 60 min time frame to see wad up, and what it is, is a double bottom from 3/26 and the first trading day in April, in the green circles, the yellow arrow points to that line I was talking about.

Anyway, we're pretty over sold and looking for an excuse to shake the bears a little, so maybe we try for a gap fill or some thing like that, it doesn't change my opinion of the January highs being the main target area, just that we could bounce here, hopefully setting up another shorting opportunity back at higher levels.

Now EOW 5/4/10

2:00pm: Really, I don't have much to say, I've been yakking my head off for a week since "The Setup" post, wad ever, the McClellans both had another one day wonder, both of them a little late, but that's the nature of the parameters, the next trades will be long trades, which I personally won't be to hot on. They both got under -300 at one point, which is pretty, aaaahhhhh, over sold, and knowing how Da Street works they will have all their yelling screaming yakking talking heads on the Tube tonight screaming about "The buying opportunity of a life time", wonderful, go for it.

I only put the daily chart of the Q's up there at the top to show how it "found" support right at the 50dma, typical stuff, the SPY did the exact same thing.
I hope you were prepared for this.

The 60 min chart, besides it's other wonderful attributes (for the "bears" of course), is working on a nice triangle now, this is a contracting or symmetrical triangle, you always start the count from the point of entry, and it's always a 5 count, for me at least, the Elliott Wavers use an a-b-c-d-e count, but the result is the same, it usually results in a break of the trendline opposite of the last 5 count, in this case, DOWN! Regardless, a break under that April 28 low could be very BAAAAAAAAAAAADDDD (damn sheep!!), or GOOD, if you happen to be a certain individual I know quite well, hahahahahahaha (that's my evil laugh!).

Mike Paulenoff has some nice commentary on his site, and for the right price, http://www.mptrader.com/chartsofweek/ , you can sign up for free to get these delivered to your email box.

Futures are down ahead of the bell, DOW about 70 points, the reason for the drop as given by the AP just cracks me up, hahahaha, number one it's the sameo sameo bull shit about the EU, "Debt problems in Europe are again a worry Tuesday. Investors will, however, get reports on factory orders and home sales later in the day that are expected to show the economy is improving, which could spark a rally.", but that last part really cracks me up, the Factory orders are expected to be DOWN 2% as compared to UP 6% last month, and pending home sales are expected to be UP 5%, as compared to being UP 8.2% last month, WAD EVER!!

This DOWN one day huge, and then UP the next day huge, is very typical of a trend change, the good part, for the bears of course, is that the DOWN days have been obviously "distribution" days, as volume as been much larger than the UP days.

There were some interesting stats about last week, Investors Intelligence.com reported that there were 1,079 buying climaxes last week, by far an all-time record. This was the exact opposite reading to that which occurred in March 2009,  when there were 1,010 selling climaxes. A buying climax occurs when a stock makes a new 52-week high and then closes the week lower, which is one of my favorite scans, a Break Out Failure bar or a Key reversal bar.  A selling climax is the opposite. The prior week they hit 467, which was in the top ten of their 20 year data base. Climax extremes are thought to represent distribution, from either strong hands to weak (buying climaxes), or weak hands to strong (selling climaxes). A high number of climaxes tend to congregate around market turning points.
Another was the chart Alan Newman has up of NASDAQ/NYSE volume, http://cross-currents.net/monthly.htm , this divides the NasDog volume by the NYSE volume as a measure of "speculative" activity, IE, the greater the volume in the Dogs compared to the Big Boys the more frenzy there is to accept risk in returns, in my own personal opinion the "frenzy" is to try and get back the money lost during the last little down turn ("little" compared to the one coming!). ANYWAY, this "frenzy", when compared to the uncomparable one during the Dot.Com burst, is just off the stinking chart, hahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!! I'm tellin Ya, this market is just......... UNFRICKING REAL!

Now EOD 5/3/10

2:00pm: Wow, it just about don't get any better, Udder Dan you bulls driving us up like that, anyway, the Q's stopped right on that down trend line I talked about over the weekend, just perfect, it actually was even better than that, as if stopped nuts on it, and then walked down it, before finally collasping going into the close. The McClellan exited on that last bar, but actually got over the +100 level going into that bar, wad ever, it was a one day wonder trade, the next trade will be a short. The SPY actually had a throw over above the line, before closing back under it.

Pretty hard to say what's going to happen, the daily charts are obnoxious, AGAIN, after the bust higher today, who knows, they could take us up from here, I'm not waiting on last thursday's high to stop out, I'll be leaving if we close above that trend line, as it obviously has some importance to trader's now attached to it.  

5:50am: Futures are getting the bounce this morning that I thought might happen, it's not huge as the DOW is up about 34 points, oil is up AND the dollar is UP, there's no news to drive it of course, as Europe is DOWN, and in Asia Japan was up but China is down about 1.4%, continuing on there merry way as they get closer and closer to a 20% bear market decline. We get a big economic week ending with the payroll report friday, there's a bunch of them this morning but the biggie is the ISM at 10am ET.
The chart is the 60 min. chart of the DOW futures of course, but all of them look the same as shown on the 30 min charts this weekend, my plan is simple, I'm holding the short position from last week as long as we don't get over the upper red line, which is where I got in, above that line and I have to assume we are going to make new rally highs. Even with the little rally this morning all the DOW has done is hit some resistance at current levels, it then hits another shelf of resistance at the red circle, which is close to a 50% retracement of the initial drop, and not shown, is that is the area of the now declining 20 ma, so I MAY add at that point if we show some momentum weakness.
Wad ever, it's a pretty clear picture to me, good luck to you this week.

I'M BULLISH AS HELL!!!!!

I'm just constantly amazed at how people get the terms "Bullish" and "Bearish" so consistently ass backwards, this of course is due to the devious training techniques of "investors" by Wall Street the last couple of hundred years or so, usually through those things they call "Analyst" as they use them to "Talk Their Book" to try and get those investor's to buy the worthless shit that the Street is doing every thing they can do to sell to them, wad ever, the little note and chart at the bottom shows this little ploy in all it's typical glory, as the "Analyst" were doing every thing they could to convince investor's to sell their shares back to Da Street at possibly the single most "Bullish" moment in at least 12 years,  and now after an 80% rally those same "Analyst" are turning "Bearish" as the greatest number of them since the 07' top are doing every thing they can to convince Investor's that this is the buying opportunity of a life time, wad ever, go for it! 

I know I'm Buying it, hahahahaha, PUT'S that is! I haven't been this "Bullish" in a long time, as I'm hoping I'll get an opportunity to buy shares from those maaaaaaavelous Investor's that will be more than willing to sell them to me at MUCH lower prices and MUCH better valuations.

The weekly Q's chart is at the top with the SPY under it, we've had our first bearish engulfing bar in the "correct" configuration since the March bottom from over a year ago, the "correct" configuration meaning it came at a "top" rather than in the middle of a pattern, I pointed to the prior ones with the little white lines, the previous one the Q's had was at the January top prior to the pull back into February, the SPY missed it there as they had started down the week before with a weak BOF bar. There's a number of key technical area's lining up to support a pull back here, as the Q's obviously failed at the "Green Line" I talked about in prior posts, that being that previous high from May of 08", which is the Q's only failure point, as they've done what they should do which is outperform it's older brethern the SPY, as the SPY failed to get even close to that same top. The SPY has a number of "bullish" failure points on it as it failed to penetrate the low shelf from July of 08', they failed right at the weekly 20 dma and failed to penetrate the 61.8% FIB retracement level, all pretty cool stuff if you are bullish like me.

Should the impossible happen and we actually do start to pull back I fully intend to get "involved" with the indexes again, which would mean looking for support areas. First of course, to even get the ball rolling the Q's have to get below last Wednesday's low, and last tuesday's low on the SPY, this set's up the first major support which is the January highs, which is so obvious it scares the shit out of me, as EVERY ONE will be watching that area. Wad ever, there's an interesting little "interruption" point on the daily charts, I circled them in orange, that's the asinine turn around day on March 22 (one of many I might add, sigh), the Q's made a little higher low there while the SPY made an almost PERFECT test of the January highs, I'm going to say right here that we have a lot of "congestion" between here and those January highs, so the markets could be a real peice of choppy shit trying to get there. The good part will come if, or when, we get below that area, we start running into Air Pockets, or VOIDS, that could take us down to the 200 dma in the SPY fairly easily, around $109, $44 in the Q's, then we get another pocket down to the February lows, but of course, that's neither here nor there, for if some ungodly reason we actually get to the February lows, the cries of the end of the world are probably going to be heard every where, hahahahaha!!

Just as a side note I added a purely speculative idea on the SPY, we "could" set up a head and shoulders formation prior to breaking the January highs, I mean, it looks pretty good on the chart, hahahaha, which naturally, don't mean diddly fricking squat, but I do anticipate those January highs to be a battle ground, and it would be really cool if we bounced off them and then setup some thing like an "Alvalanche" right at that down trend line, much like the one I showed on the 15 minute chart a week or so ago.

The short term 30 minute McClellan charts show we "could" be coming into some support here, as both the Q's at the bottom and the SPY have lower trend lines that converge in the same place, in the yellow circles, $49 for the Q's and $118.50 for the SPY. The McClellan kind of supports this idea as both of them exited the short position and the next signal will be a Buy, although we could have further to drop as neither one of them has made an effort to turn higher.

That Q chart is messy, and will be the last time it looks like that, as I left those three shorter term trend lines on there just to show how the Q's have broken all of them. I may leave them on there though, just in case we do bounce, as a "back test" of those lines may prove to be an important point down the road.

This is a pay for play site so I feel free to rag on them a little, this comes from Schaeffer's monday morning outlook which you can access here, http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/ . I COMPETLEY redid the chart so I wouldn't violate any copywrite laws, Schaffer prides themselves in their "contrary" thinking analysis, with the main idea being that you should go short when option or equity or mutual fund or blah blah blah, investors, are extremely bullish on an equity or market, while price has been going down, or vice versa. Number one of course, this supports what I said at the top, as "Anaylst" were doing every thing they could do at the March bottom to try and get Investor's to sell their shares back to the Street, which kind of cracks me up about Schaffer's comment about how "bearish" they were, hahahahaha, all they do now (the Analyst) is talk about how that was the buying opportunity of a life time, as if they didn't know that at the time, hahahahahaha, what a bunch of roaches!! Anyway, the point of the article is that they consider it "bullish" that "Analyst" are so bearish, even after the 80% run up in the markets, because the buy recommendations are so much lower than they were at the 2000 top, hahahahahaha, this goes completely against their normal "contrary" anaylsis! The thing I SEE, is that the "Anaylst" are NOW more bullish than they have been at ANY TIME since the 03' bottom, EVEN THOUGH, the Markets are still 22% LOWER than the 07' highs, which SHOULD fit right into Schaffer's normal "contrary" analysis, that this should be a shorting opportunity, IE, excessive optimism in a DOWN TRENDING MARKET!

I put those red lines on the chart to SUPPORT Schaffer's main thesis, as "Analyst" became more pessimistic from 06' to the 07' top, IE they were bearish in a rising market, and then they held on to their "relatively" high levels of optimism well into the crushing bear market, before finally getting the final flush out into the lows. Of course that whole last part of the "thesis" supports my "thesis", that being that they held on to their high levels of optimism well into the bear market as they were trying to suck in every last investor into buying this "DIP" (hahahahaha, quite a little "DIP"), or even worse, "Holding On", as in by their finger nails, and then when they finally decided they couldn't suck any one else in, they went into their END GAME, where they completely reverse and start screaming at investors to sell those shares back to them, and get out while they still have any money left at all!! After all, they didn't want to take ALL their money, they were hoping to leave some to them so they could buy the Street's shares back from them, like, NOW!

Wad ever, every body has their own little "ideas".

Weekly ETF Trade Ideas 5/3/10

The software is pretty evenly split on trading ideas for the daily charts of the ETF's, with the bearish side just barely "winning". None of these signals include the short ETF's, I guess I could run a scan on them, but I already know what the outcome would be.

ANYWAY, with the feelings I have about the situation in this country, and the markets in general, I couldn't help myself, so I picked JNK as the Long trade on the daily charts. I actually have the weekly chart up there, mainly to show the beautiful trend line this thing has been following, it had a nice tight candle last week and tested that trend line right on the nut and bounced, and it's setting up an obvious ascending triangle, in it's glory days this thing topped out in the $47 "area", so it has room to go on the upside, and with the mutual fundies in love with bonds, who knows what they will do in their quest for yield, hahahaha, it actually cracks me up, for every time this thing goes up the yield gets lower and lower, an obvious receipe for disaster, but hey, the party could go on for quite a while.

Speaking of mutual funds, on a personal basis I've been in a split in my Vanguard bond funds, the VWEHX, which is the Vanguard equal of JNK, and the long term bond fund VBLTX, in "THEORY" these things tend to move opposite of each other, but THEORY is great, ain't it, since I've been in the split they are BOTH higher, hahahahaha, I'm tellin Ya, I'm right on the verge of taking them both off the table, but if the "markets" start to pull back here, the party may last a little longer, decisions decisions, sigh!!

On the short side I have the SMH on the chart, they are leading the main indexes in that they've triggered off the main short signal, that is, they closed under wednesday's low, I'm going to become wildly bullish when the main indexes, like da Q's, close under that low (Disclaimer: in my case, "wildly bullish" means I'm going to short the shit out of them!!). I'm not going to bother with the SMH, it's just on there because the software has a new short on it, it's got to much congestion under it, a first target would be about $27, with the next one at the February low, and then my ultimate target of ZERO!!
The rest of the list is below.

The software is not to wild about the markets on the weekly time frame, as it didn't generate very many new signals, but on the ones it did it has about two new short signals for every new buy. I have my DAG on the chart for the buy signal, it's not on a new buy signal but it's on a "confirming" buy signal, which is a new buy signal the software see's while it's already on a continuing buy signal. This is in response to the new buy it has on the top symbol, AGF, which is another AG fund, DAG continues to wallow at the bottom, but on the daily it's double bottomed, and the weekly candle almost made a key reversal buy (almost is close enough, RIGHT!!). Anyway, if Da bulls end up being right in the long run, this thing has a lot of upside room in it. Keep in mind these Double ETF's are terrible LONG term "investments", as they've proven to lose value on BOTH the long and short funds at the same time, roachey things.

I may finally have the short I'm looking for, UN-real estate, the software trades URE pretty decently with a 56% APR on it's back testing, and it's last couple of shorts have worked, I really like this one because the bar is a BOF, break out failure bar, and the bar is fairly tight for the stop, above the open of this past week, first target is the same as the main indexes, the January high, then it's the lower trend line around 33, then the March lows from last year, and then blah blah blah, ZERO!! It just cracks me up to listen to the yelling, screaming, yakking talking heads on the Tube, I listened to some kid a week or two ago talking about the bank "earnings", and how their "ratio's" have improved "markedly", HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, NO FRICKING SHIT GOMER, the "markedly" of course relates directly to when the Govenment told the banks it's ok to LIE, and to take all the bad shit off their balance sheets, and to top that off it was ok for them to just kind of "assign" a value to shit that has NO ACTUAL VALUE, wad ever, John Hussman provides a little more clarity in this article, "Extend and Pretend", http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100412.htm .

This Government always creates "unintended" consequences with their actions of course, and when they told the country it was ok for the banks to lie and commit fraud, that opened the door for those under water home owner's to feel it was completely legit to just mail in the keys, or even better, to just sit in their home with out paying any thing for years, as there's no way the banks want to recognize them and have to take the actual loss. Wad ever, wonderful stuff it is.

Weekly Sector and Asset Class Money Flows

They loooove those bonds, "traders" were fleeing the scene to the saftety of TLT the past week, blowing away the money flows, with GLD a distant second. The dollar and energy fund were the only other positive sectors and classes, mostly due to the weakness in Europe and the Euro, but I would think that with the strength in the energy fund the XLE would not be leading the losers, but it was.

I put the Q's on the chart because they were the winners, among the major indexes at least, but also to show the huge divergence I've been talking about that it's been getting with TSV since mid March, MS has been bouncing along and just managing to stay above the Zero line during that same period, but has finally coughed it up and moved below it. The troubling part I see is that we had just a very slight divergence in TSV just before the last pull back we had in mid January, you remember that one, it started after the last earnings season, but with the massive divergence we now have I have to wonder if that's an indicator of a much larger pull back coming. We shall see.

As you would expect, the leading inflows in the ETF's are mostly short funds, with most of the bond and gold funds showing up as well. I have the short emerging market fund, EEV, on the chart, it had a massive MS and TSV surge the past week, and in my personal opinion has a pretty decent R/R with a stop of a couple of dollars and a target about $20 higher. That's just pure speculation on my part though, those maaaaaavelous bulls won't be giving up that easy.

Financials show up as the winning losers for the week, followed by the World EX the US, then the insurer's that are going to be paying for the OIH mistake, along with Europe, a bunch of the small cap funds, and emerging markets, which include Mexico and Spain. XLF is on the chart to show the huge money stream dump it had, but mostly to show what I consider the most likely first support area, should Mr. Phelps decide to accept the assignment and take us lower of course, that being the January highs, which was the first major support I was looking for on the other major indexes, that is, when I lost my mind for a day or two and actually thought they were going to pull us back at that point. Who knows, maybe they'll do it this time, stranger things have certainly happened.