MSW Watch List- Now Premarket 7/7 (THAT's DOUBLE SEVEN's BABY, WOOOO HOOOO)/10

12:18pm: Did you know that if I open my charts in FreeCharts.com with my normal IE, rather than my MSN.com, that I can click on "full view" and the charts cover the complete monitor, with out that obnoxious bar at the top?????

And did you know that FreeCharts.com has my favorite indicator on them, the TSV???

And did you know, that on a five minute chart of the SSO and SPY, both TSV and the MACD are making a huge divergence vs the latest high in the index's??????

And did you know that I'm taking my ball home, and getting the hell out of Dodge????? It probably don't mean diddly fricking squat, they will probably continue to grind higher, but for some reason I think I will probably get another entry setup down the road that will look a little better.

6:30am: My man Clive, Corcoran that is, is concentrating on Forex these days, and this morning he is thinking that the USD/JPY "may" be making a double bottom from July 1, and if so, he thinks that the "RISK ON" trade will be back on. I don't "DO" Forex, but I can see that this thing has certainly been going down, or, leading the market down, and a break higher would probably propel us higher. He's talking about 87.75 as the Break Point, which is just over the top of the upper trend line, personally, I could see it make a 2B bottom first, where it breaks under the dreaded 87 level, scaring the shit out of every one, and THEN moving higher, making them chase it. Markets some how magically do that some times you know.

Dick Bove is touting the "SURE" double in Cititgroup some more, http://bit.ly/a9RHg6 , he's talking about over the next two years. You know, I'm neither here nor there on Dick, I mean, he called the banking crash, but then he turned on us and started touting them as buy's of a life time waaaaaaaaaay to early, sigh, I'm actually thinking of buying a big chunk of this stupid thing in one of my obsure little Mutual funds and forgetting about it for a couple of years, maybe sell call's against it when I can, I don't know, the damn thing has a huge two year base, with HUGE volume, I'm kind of waiting to see if it can get back to the Government level, around the $3.30 area, or even better, that prior low around $2.50, if it can get back over $5 it has a VOID above that and a lock on Dick's $8.50 target, but what I see is another Air Pocket, or VOID, above that area, that goes all the way to about $16. Wad ever, the fear I have is that they are going to reverse split it if it doesn't get back over $5 pretty soon, as mutual funds can't own it until it does that. We ALL know, that when stocks do a reverse split, 99.999999% of the time, they eventually go back to the price they were at BEFORE the split.

That damn Dougie Kass, hahahahahahahaha, the little roach is getting all bull shittish on me again, http://www.cnbc.com/id/38112449 , saying the bottom is in for the year, sigh, wad ever Dougie, the futures weren't looking to hot earlier today, when they were trying to challenge the lows of the last week, but through some stinking miracle after the premarket opened up, Da Boyz, despite the rather bad news out of Germany on some economic report that shocked the "experts", have managed to take us into the green, maybe Dougie's right!

Alex Roslin of the COT's Timer, http://www.cotstimer.blogspot.com/ , was kind enough to post some answers in the comments section to the questions I posed about the COT data's use, if you don't want to read it there I'll post it here:

"Thanks for your post mentioning my blog and your kind words. You raise some good points. Here are some thoughts:

- The commercial traders often get it wrong, and the small traders often get it right, as you point out. Following just one or the other group generally didn't give the most reliable trading signals. It was only when I combined the two groups that I started to get much better signals in backtesting. If the two signals don't agree, there's no trade. In some markets, it's even better to follow three groups of traders.

- I found that it's not that reliable to use the absolute net positioning that you show in your chart, as opposed to a measure of the relative position (i.e. compared to recent data). That was first shown by authors like Larry Williams and Steve Briese.

- The best signals often use some kind of trade delay, whether one or more weeks. In the case of the S&P 500, my signals are executed three weeks after I get them. I don't know why this works better, but it can explain some of the disconnects you might see when comparing the COT and price data."

I ran the software on the ETF's on the daily scans just to have some fun (yea, it's that bad!), the slimey bottom fisher is fairly bullish, as it spit out almost four new buys for every new short, on an over all basis it's on nine buy signals of various sorts to every seven short signals, so it's kind of split as to what it wants to do. I showed the new buy signal on the Q's because, well, "Q" is in the blog name, the software trades them like doggy poop, only generating a 10% APR. Remember that this is the "7 Day System", IE a swing trading system, and it automactically stops out after seven trading days.

I should mention that I was looking through the Russell 1000 on the software, and some of the Tech names have a kind of interesting looking Island reversal look to them, like INTC, CSCO and MSFT, although Mikey got a little to excited today.

I have UGL on the new short chart, woooooo weeeeeeee, when those people fall out of love with gold they get the hell out of Dodge in a hurry. I noticed the software also came up with a number of bond funds on the new short signal list, TLT is not on the list because it issued a new short on that Uuuuuugggiillly bar I talked about a couple of days ago. Wad ever, I hope that bonds go way down so I can load up again.

The rest of the list is below.

Premarket 7/6/10

5:30am MT: The futures are in the process of putting on a huge reversal day before the markets even open, last night when I went to bed the DOW was down about one percent, or over 80 points, and when I get in this morning they are UP over 1%, DOW over a hundred points, hahahahahahahahaha, fricking roachey Mutha's! The SP futures came within a couple of points of testing the all important WHOLE number of 1000 last night, before the ungodly pump, I circled the huge gap they had just before 10PM ET, I checked all the MarketWatch news items from last night, but I could find NOTHING that would account for it, one thing that didn't help was that MarketWatch didn't have any time stamps on the articles from last night, the only thing close was that the Australian equal of our FED said every thing was honkey dorrey and kept interest rates at like 4.5%, sigh, wouldn't it be nice to be getting a yield like that here.

Naturally, it makes me EXTREMELY suspicious when Da Boyz are puming us like crazy in the low volume after hours, this could be a nice buying opportunity, OR, it could be the last chance for Inwestor's to get out of Dodge with their shirts still intact.

I wrote the following part last night, as I hate to do a lot of writing before the open in the mornings, this is in NO way a tirade about The COT's Timer, like I said, I like his site and his trading plan, it's just that it bug's me Maaaaaaaannnnnn, in that I can't see the justification of the Small Trader's being the "Dumb" money, wad ever, I probably should have deleted it.

You know your getting old when you watch the Antiques Road Show every night, hoping to see some one paying big bucks for some thing you currently own that is similar to it, that you distinctly remember buying when it was brand new! I personally know some one real well who does that, hahahahahahahaha! 

I was originally going to title this "I Don't Get It", but I deleted it, now it's back again, wad ever, anyway, I went through Alex Roslin's site "The Cots Timer", as his system's have signaled a new buy signal on the SP 500. Now, a very few of you may remember I used to post the COT data here, until another blogger started devoting their whole site to the COT, hell, I don't know, it may have been Alex, I'm sure it probably was, but I stopped posting the data because, number one, I thought it was being, aaahhhhhh, massaged, by the people that Alex bases his trades on, that being the "Commercials", my thesis was that the main job of there's was to be the Market Makers, meaning they HAVE to go against the Small and Large traders, for when you think about it there's really no such thing as a "Commercial" hedger in the financial markets, on the other side I totally agree with there being hedgers in the commodities, for that's what they were originally intended to be for, a way for airlines and farmers and etc etc etc to hedge off their risk against the Large and "Small" "speculators". I put "Small" in quotes, because that goes to the root of my other complaint, that being the definition by the CFTC about who a "Small" trader is, hahahahahaha, you can buy up to 999 SP contracts and still be considered "Small", geeze, anyway, it was my contention that the Small traders were also a bunch of those "unlisted" little trading outfits that the big Boyz have scattered all over the place, off setting any losses the Commercials may have to take by going against the other two catagories of traders.

Now, I like Alex's site, he lays the WHOLE system out for you, when to enter, where to get the data, stops, how long to hold, etc etc etc, I admire his system and his confidence in it, his back testing and results page shows he's beaten the SP by 11.2% a year since 1995, or some thing like that, so it's all good, I suggest you follow him, BUT, it goes back to the title I deleted, I just don't get it. If you look at the COT data above, going back to 2005 the "Small" trader's have consistently kicked the fricking ass of the Commercials, and Alex's whole trading plan is based on the "Small" trader's being the dumb money, with the trade being made when the Small Trader's get bearish while the Commercials are increasing their long exposure. I put the horizontal lines are the COT data to show when the Small trader's were bullish, IE there positions were above the Zero line, and the same periods in Green where the Commercials were bearish, I mean, I just don't see it, go through it your self to see if you can, "see it". The first red circle on the left shows how the Small Trader's started getting out of Dodge at the top in 07' as fast as they could, while the Commercials were just starting to get bullish, how did that end up????  The middle red circle does show them getting a little to bullish going into 09', I mean, they were right for awhile, but they took a big draw down during the January to March bottom, but what they did was INCREASE their long bets, and it ended up they were absolutely right, as the Commercials stayed bearish all the way until they finally went bullish into the February bottom this year. Now, the far right circle shows why his systems fired off the buy for this week, the Commercials have gotten bullish, with the Small guys moving to a bearish exposure since about March, but I ask you, which one has been right about that???

Personally, I don't think those Small guys are all that dumb, but hey, who am I to say! By the way, Alex's systems perform best on some of the commodities, like oil and Natural gas, which makes perfect sense to me, as there actually are Commercial hedger's in those areas.

Mr. Sunshine

4/5/10 10:00am: SIGH! This is a very nice, GRAPHIC, look, at the lies our Government has been trying to perpetrate upon us the last three decades, involving the changes made to the "Economic" releases and how the parameters have been changed to protect the guilty, "The World Has Been Pulled Over Our Eyes",  http://bit.ly/dxQnSG .

First off, WAD EVER, if you hadn't done your research and already known this, you truly are part of the majority of people in this country living in fricking La La Land! This is widely known, and is vehemently defended by the perpetrators, any time you see one of the yelling screaming yakking talking head bullish bull shit economist's that come on the La La Land TV shows, and repeats EXACTLY all the lying fricking bull shit stat's coming out of our Government as the basis of their bull shit argument, you should immediately tune to the Cartoon network to get a dose of reality. Here's some recent examples of the, "DEBATE", about this, http://bit.ly/9VxUc2 , and here, "Time to Shut down the Federal Reserve" http://bit.ly/bGBbmY .

Again, I only have another big WAD EVER, I don't fricking care, what REALLY bother's me, is what I've mentioned a number of times, and I hardly EVER hear any one talk about this, is the destruction of the idea of "SAVINGS" in the Country. I mean, please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't consumer spending one of the main engines of the driver of economic growth, making up like 66% of GDP? And wasn't it the ability of us Baby Boomers to actually SAVE money, back when we could get 8% in a lousy money market account, that led to the great bull market from 1980-2000?? Don't people SAVE money so they can spend the amount they actually MAKE,  OFF OF, the savings, IE, the former 8%, on the shit little widgets they DON'T need, rather than putting the quote, "SAVINGS", in a ZERO percent account that the bank actually charges you more for than what the ZERO percent they pay makes you???? It's obvious that the Greenspan FED, and now the Uncle Ben FED, are destroying consumers in order to protect the bond holders of their precious fricking banks, just as John Hussman has been trying to get across to every one for years now, forcing "savers" into chasing bubble after fricking bubble trying to get some little yield, and ripping their capital to shreds in the process.

Sigh, I can hardly believe we will EVER see true economic growth, until the average consumer is truly allowed to build up much needed back up capital, which is going to result in a lot of pain as the insolvent banks and a lot of other "assets" are going to have to be thrown under the 18 wheeler, but I doubt that it will EVER happen, as we will NEVER get any body in that spineless fricking Washington to do what really needs to be done.

HAH! Happy Birthday America, and welcome to the end, "America is 234 Years Old Today - Is It Finished?", http://www.philstockworld.com/ . Sigh, I'm depressing even me, thank god these four day holidays for Federal worker's only comes along about every few weeks, any more than that and I'd probably have to much time on my hands. The futures were almost DEAD flat last night and this morning, it's scaring me, obviously a BIG move coming.

Oh, screw it, here's another one from my favorite, Paul Farrell, http://bit.ly/aJsweA , "Double Dip? Great Depression II? Game Over. Bye-Bye Bull. Crash Dead Ahead. Sell. Get liquid. Now. Dow’s “Slam Dunking” Below 6470 (Again!)", mainly because he mentions Barton Bigg's, aaaaaaahhhhhhhh, UNTIMELY, complete flip flop on his prior 20% higher bull shit call of a few weeks back, sigh, wad ever Barton.

DESPITE what you may think, I actually consider myself an extremely optimistic person, as in, I'M POSITIVE THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO COLLASPE, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Sigh, wad ever.

7/4/10 6:00 AM: Disclaimer: When I was a young'in, and I'd get up in the morning in my typical cranky mood, my Mother would comment that "aren't you Mr. Sunshine this morning", and of course, any one who's wred (red, read??) me the last four years knows that it's carried through into the waning days of the Fall season in my life, as I usually thrive in my Debbie Downer persona (and for a damn good reason!). Anyway, with this being a Holiday, and possibly the LAST July 4th we will ever celebrate if Pelosi and Obama and their clan get their way (which, of course, is all thanks to the Bushie administration), I thought I'd post some "positive" items I'm seeing in the markets.

This, IN NO WAY, negates my Macro outlook that eventually we will fall AT LEAST 50% below the March 09' lows, before the silent majority in this country get off their stinking asses and do some thing about the power play taking place in Washington, and kick ALL the stinking bum's out.

My MAIN indicator is, of course, the A/D's, and they continue to build out a HUGE divergence VS the prior February lows, this picture is in complete contrast to prior major tops, in which the A/D's usually led the markets lower by setting up NEGATIVE (I couldn't go five minutes without getting "negative" in there, hahahahahahahaha) divergences. What has to happen, for these things to "confirm" a major divergent top, is to get a bear market rally that carries over the June high, with lower A/D's, some where down the road of course. We could also do it by having a short term rally that set's up a couple of minor higher highs and higher lows in the market, IE an uptrend, in which the A/D's do not confirm the uptrend.

The $NYA50R, percentage of stocks above their 50dma, is currently in a positive divergence vs the May and June lows, of course, naturally, this could change any minute.

The weekly $NASI, the NYSE Summation index, is on a buy on the 5/3 STOCH settings, which is a fairly decent "timing" system, as shown by the previous instances in which it crossed to the upside. NOT GOOD, is the fact that it had a down red bar last week, in the red circle, but, I circled the area in October of 08' where it had a similar setup, and still went higher. Bottom line, it has to hold this area, I wouldn't want to see it break below that low it made four weeks ago, that would probably negate the "pattern".

The new highs ratio between the NasDogs and the NYSE is trending higher, IE, diverging, this is pretty choppy but the obvious trend of late has been to the upside.

Despite what some in the WackoSphere are claiming to be a DOW Theory sell confirmation, the fact of the matter is that we won't get that UNTIL the Trannies break below the February low, there seem's to be a lot of Hubub about both of them breaking the previous May and June lows, but the DOW Theory "experts" that I read (reed???) say it ain't so, and I believe them.

Bonds, in the form of the TLT, have had a couple of nasty reversal bars the last two days, I would have "thunk", that with the stock markets price action being as lousy as it is, bonds would be absolutely flying higher.

The RSI5 and the short term STOCH 5/3 settings are at more over sold levels than they've been in the last year plus, and the MACD is in imminent danger of possibly forming another divergent low, although it has to get it's ass in gear pretty damn quick. Of course, "indicators", can stay over sold a lot longer than I can stay solvent.

TSV is continuing to diverge higher against the lower price low's in the markets, this thing continued to make lower lows coming off the April high, all the way down to the June lows. Giving some validity to this divergence, is the FACT that TSV gave a major warning signal before the April highs, that some thing was amiss, as it started diverging to the down side all the way back in March, prior to those April highs. Of course, the blue line, MS or Money Stream, is still going lower, although it FAILED to diverge at those same April Highs, so it may not have much weight.

UH OH! Debbie just walked back into the room, and wondered why I wasn't showing any weekly charts, well, frankly, I don't consider them fit for family viewing, as they are definitely H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E looking, every thing on the weekly charts is screaming at inwestor's to get out of Dodge while they still can, the MACD is on a major negative divergence that goes all the way back to August of last year, and is not remotely close to any kind of setup, and TSV and MS are not showing any signs of turning higher. Even worse, should we get under $100 in the SPY, or 1000 on the $SPX, we get into a major Air Pocket, or VOID, that could set up a pretty fluid move back down to about the $86 area.

Premarket 7/2/10 (Now End of Week, Thank God!)

4:30pm: A few little notes here, some times it pays to be the last dumb ass still hanging around going into the end of the day before a Holiday weekend, hahahahahahahahaha!! Number two, it even amazed me that it worked!! And number three, the close is why my stinking time frames keep getting shorter and shorter, geeze what a shitty close, in the after hours right now they are actually down at the green circle, at 31.50, mama mia, wad ever.

They gave me NO reason to sell, that is, until they put the big topping tail on it with 15 minutes to go in the day, I sold at the yellow line that says "close", at 32.03, no way was I letting it get back under that, I gave away 20 cents from the high, which is a LOT to me, but, wad ever, kind of a nice end to the week.

Sysin mentioned we probably either gap up big or gap down big on Tuesday, I agree (I might also add that we might open flat, hahahahahahaha), if I went by those god awful weekly charts, I'd have to go with the gap down, but we are pretty over sold here, down 9 of the last 10 days, wad ever, over sold can become WAY more over sold.

Have a great Holiday weekend!

12:45PM MT

6:45am: A couple of little, aaaaaahhhhhhh, "items", about the payroll release, I was actually planning on getting "involved", as I have some short call's on the SSO and I was going to buy some stock if we blew up higher on the number, in order to try and cover them until we get the actual market open, wad ever, what the exercise did was remind me about why I "DON'T" get invovled in the after hours, hahahahaha. I even had the tube on, on Bloomberg TV, I usually never turn it on until about noon.

The bottom chart is the 1 min chart of the premarket in the SPY, the yellow lines point to the release moment, you can see it spiked higher on the first two bars, but the second bar immediately spiked back down and closed just slightly negative with a wide range doji typ thingey, ANYWAY, I was listening to the "numbers" on Bloomberg, and the headline number was good at a 9.5% unemployment rate, BUT, the overall numbers at -125K were slightly worse than the "expected" -100K, and even worse, the private section only added 83K vs the 110K expected, wad ever, it was enough to keep me on the side lines, besides, the damn things were a little over bought going into the number, as evidenced by the 60 period STOCH on the SPY chart, and the five minute SSO chart at the top was showing some clear negative divergences on the "indicators".

Anyway, after all the hoppla and whipping around after the release, we basically just closed back inside a nice triangle that's forming on that SSO chart at the top, holding the bottom trend line of it, in the yellow circle, this has taken over 15 minutes to write so it's actually after 7am MT, and we are still inside that triangle, so I consider it a nice setup going into the open, if we break under the lower trend line we probably go, aaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh, lower, if we break over the upper trend line, we probably go, aaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh, LOWER!! Hahahahaha, wad ever, have a nice day out there in La La Land, personally, I consider the day OVER WITH, we probably just chop around the rest of the day, as Da Boyz take off for their weekend at the Hampton's, and leave the lackies in charge, with strict instructions to screw as many of us as they can.

6:00am: My Elliott Wave "guy" has some extremely simple count options for where we are right now (which is why I like him, he's so simple even I can understand it), his preferred senario is that we are in an A-B-C "corrective" wave count, with the A-B being complete and we are currently in Wave C down, this is a corrective count in that we have a three wave correction of the March 09' to April 10' top. A logical target for this correction would be a 50% retracement of that rally, which is the $94-$95 "area" I've talked about quite a bit.

The more ominious count is that we are in Wave 3 of a five wave "Impluse" move to the down side, in which case we will probably go MUCH lower, and the even worse part is that after we complete Wave "5", we probably get an A-B-C "corrective" Wave before going even LOWER, sigh, wad ever, it will be, wad it will be. I've shown the ABC count in red, with the five wave count in blue.

Carter Worth had an interesting STAT on FM last night, in the last 110 (???) years, we've had 26 times that BOTH January and June were negative months, out of those 21 (??) times, the markets finished LOWER on the year.

Even though we finished LOWER on all the averages yesterday, we had a decent long tailed doji on them, with some decent volume, plus we are getting a little spread out in distance from the 50dma and 200dma's (which are right on the verge of a "Death Cross" by the way), in response, the futures are currently blowing up, DOW up about 20 points......, OK, that's a little joke, but basically we are waiting on the Payroll report in a half hour. I've heard that any thing LESS than a negative reading of -150,000 will probably be considered GOOD, by the market gods.

In complete contrast to the daily charts, the weekly charts look just awful.................................................... , I was going to say some thing in there, but, nough said, they look, AWFUL!

Premarket 7/1/10

7:00am: Steve Nison is looking for a "Crack and Snap", http://www.nisoncandlesticks.com/ , nice little five minute video on the setup.

 

5:30am: Futures are fairly flat this morning, which surprised the shit out of me, when I went to bed last night they were down about 70 points and I had a vision of waking up and them being down over a hundred points, on a five minute chart they've been rising in a kind of flatish bear flag since about 10pm ET last night, so they are vulnerable to a sharp quick sell off should the market god's decide to take us there. China's PMI declined for the second month in a row, but it didn't get below 50, so maybe we are higher on hope's it's not as bad as it could be, we get a slew of economic reports this morning, capped off by the ISM at 10am ET.

I put the daily chart of the Q's up there because of the 30min McClellan chart under it, despite the sell off yesterday the McClellan actually got OVER BOUGHT, very unusual stuff, which tell's me there was some underlying strength in the A/D's going on, of course, it's OVER BOUGHT, which means it can go DOWN, the SPY looks EXACTLY the same on it's McClellan. ANYWAY, the reason for the Q's daily is I was wondering what in the heck that yellow trend line down at the bottom was, that suddenly popped up into sight, hahahahahahahaha, I pointed to it with the green arrow, it's a gap fill that goes back to November of last year, when you go to the daily chart you see that it provided the support for the bottom of the February pull back, almost to the nat's ass, this is good of course because it means we may find support here (that's a BIG "MAY"), but it's also bad, for if we lose this area, well, it's means we seemuch lower prices in the future.

The 15min chart of the SPY is showing a chance for a MACD divergence, of course, we are in a very clear down trend channel, and we won't start actually going higher until we get over that upper trend line around $106, but the MACD is at a much higher level that we were at the prior low on tuesday, so if we can get like one more little down draft that takes out yesterday's low, we may set up a second higher low in the MACD, which may bottom us out on a temporary basis. By the way, that big yellow horizontal line is the low from 5/25, meaning we broke the neck line of the head and shoulders every one and his brother's uncle is looking at, sigh, if it's a true break then of course all those previous targets come into play, like about 94-95 on the SPY, but, it was a pretty mild break, and if Da Boyz sucked in enough shorts on it, they may be able to manufacture a short covering rally, that could lead to the last great shorting opportunity in my life time.

By the way, there's no divergences on the five minute charts, so that supports another new slight low that would be needed in order to set a divergence up on that time frame.

Good luck out there today.