Premarket 8/6/10

8:50am: I'm not sure, but now that all the bull shit has settled down, I might start being a little concerned about, aaaaaaaahhhhhh, FLASH CRASH PART II!!

6:55am: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! This is a WOOOOOO HOOOOO, and, I LOVE IT type of thing!!!!!!! The White House Economist, Christine Romer, resigned last night prior to the jobs report today, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! The MSM is treating it as a, well, we kind of knew this was coming, it didn't have ANY THING to do with the up coming release of the report, she's doing it for personal reasons, blah blah blah blah blah blah, hahahahahahahahaha, what I THINK, is she got stinking tired of having to continually repeat the same fricking lies over and over and over again, and told Obama to go put it where the sun don't shine!!!!!!

Way to show some balls Christine!!!!!

6:35am: YOU KNOW, this is pure bull shit!! I'm not talking about the "actual" numbers in the jobs report, I'm talking about the Bloomberg reporter I was watching on the tube when the report came out. Who cares what the numbers were (they were fairly close to inline, udder dan the revision to the June report of another -100,000 jobs, hahahahahaha, did we find a little, aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh, error there, you BS-bls you!), they're all stinking lies any way, what bugs me Maaaaaaaannnnnnn, is the second, I mean, the SECOND, the report came out, this reporter rattled off every stinking number in the report, WITH OUT EVEN LOOKING AT THE PAPERS IN HIS HAND!!! IE, he had it memorized, meaning, he had it BEFORE the release, MEANING, every slime bag outfit on Wall Street had it PRIOR to the release, MEANING, us little guys don't have a stinking fricking chance in hell!!!!!

Wad ever, I was watching the SDS and SPY going into the report, the SDS went down the 60 seonds prior to the release, with the SPY going up, IE, it was TRAP city by Da Boyz, wad ever, currently the SPY is down about $1.40 from the high just before the release, with the SDS up about .72 cents, sigh, bull shit like this makes me want to just shut it down and go watch the cows piss on flat rocks out at the ranch, but, sigh, I'm probably to stupid to do some thing sensible like that.

Good luck to you out there in Slime Bag Land today.

5:00am: My former golfing career has been put on permanent hold because of the paulsey in my right hand, it shakes so bad I have the putting touch of an arthritic Rino, which is my way of cleverly leading into another stock I'm adding to the bunch from yesterday, RINO. It has an ascending triangle, it had huge volume yesterday and stalled at the June high, if it breaks out here first resistance would be the May high, THEN, above that and it gets into a clear air pocket, or VOID, in that red circle, with very little resistance left back up to the $24 "area". I hear the pop is based on a buy out "rumor", so I'll be verwy, verwy careful with the volatile little sucker. Other's that I'm watching that look similar to the bunch yesterday include POL, HBI, SUSQ, CGA and AMT.

Welp, the gap down yesterday took the Q's under that trend line I talked about, the roachey thing only got about 30 cents into the morning low, when we magically found support out in mid air and then ground higher into the afternoon, where it tested the prior days close before pulling back into the close, YUCKO! ANYWAY, nothing has changed on that 30 minute chart, we still have massive divergences working on TSV and the MACD, I put another trend line on there to trigger a short with a break of it, the orange line, what would REALLY help would be a break below the 80 mark on the STOCH at the bottom, that might be a decent confirmation of a drop back down to the lower trend line in the $46 "area". On the bull shit side, eeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrr, BULLISH side, I put those trend lines on both the TSV and MACD to watch for a break higher, the MACD has basically just cycled lower back to the ZERO level, and a break of the line may trigger a move higher, wad ever, I'll be playing my junker clunkers in that case.

Some thing I find interesting is that OptionMonster was yelling and screaming yesterday about the 50,000 contract trade of the VIX futures, the BUYER brought 50K of the SEPTEMBER 45 calls for .50 cents, another 4K block trade went through on the 40 strike price for .80 cents, in other words, this outfit is "betting" on about a 20 percent drop in the indexes in the next six weeks in order for those contracts to get in the money prior to expiration. I'm always a little leary of huge trades like this, as it could be some big outfit hedging billions of dollars of their porfolio, but wad ever, it's always interesting when some one puts their REAL money down on a "BET" like this, rather than just mouthing off about it on the tube.

Here's a couple of reasons I hate bonds right now, and exited every thing in my Vanguard account, even though price has been rising in the TLT, both the TSV and MACD have been dropping, IE, divergences, plus, the STOCH has gone to a clear sell signal. If the big better above is correct, then bonds are going to explode to the up side again, SIGH, wad ever, like I said, I got what I want from the stupid things for the year, so my bed has been made.

The futures are slightly higher, DOW about 20 points, as we all await, with bated breath I might add, the jobs report in about an hour. Good luck to you out there in La La Land today.

IF YOU DON'T WANT TO PLAY THE INDEXS, THEN..........................

6:50AM: WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07P0mXOjKBk :

That's the dive sound of a submarine, hahahahahahahahahahaha, this is later than the stuff below, the Indexes did a power dive this morning after the release of the weekly jobless claims, the continuing claims came in all right, they were down from the prior week for the first time in quite a while, but they were worse than "expected", BUT, the initial claims were pretty horrific, coming in 24K HIGHER than "EXPECTED", and almost 20K HIGHER than last week, IE, "THEY", don't like it, as it casts a shadow over the monthly report tomorrow. The DOW dumped about 50 points, but I wouldn't worry about it, the economic news has been DOG SHIT for months, but "THEY", have been choosing to ignore it, so, WHY WOULD IT BE ANY DIFFERENT THIS TIME????????????????????

 

THEN DON'T, DAMMIT!!!!! There are absolutely tons of what I call my Junker Clunkers that are trying to break out on the daily charts, IE, get away from the damn indexes and play some of the individual components.

I have PWRD on the chart above just as an example of what the patterns look like, they are mostly all in an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, you get a target on these things by measuring the distance from the head to the neck line, in this case it was five points, so the target is about five points from where it breaks out, or in this case about $30, this is just an example, it's already done the break out and is a little, aaaaaahhhhhhhh, extended, another thing you like to see is a volume surge on the break out, which this had, this gives you a little confidence to take a shot at holding it for the target area. NATURALLY, when you get a break out like this, any NORMAL person would take like half off, but that's up to you.

Now, the hard part is trying to catch the break outs, the way I do it is to play my "STOP LOSS" Leap position, I take an OTM call option, usually out to the January, 2011, expiration date, at a minimum, the OTM can be your choice, I wouldn't take any thing higher than your target price, so in this case it wouldn't be higher than the $30 strike price. The "STOP LOSS" means that, say you have a $100K account, and you have a rule of never taking a LOSS of more than .05 percent, or $500, you would then buy $500 worth of that $30 strike price. What this does, is LIMIT your loss to that $500, which enables you to take the position BEFORE the break out, and by going out to at least January, you can afford to sit on it, until it hopefully does the magic break out one day, like this peice of junk did. This is just my own personal opinion of course, and in no way do I recommend any one do any thing like this, I do the stupidest damn things, and usually end up going fricking broke a few times a year, which will undoubtedly happen to you if you do any thing like this.  

Here's a few ideas:

The steel sector is trying to break out, I have AKS on the chart, but STLD looks exactly the same, even X is still not looking to bad, although it's further extended.

Some of the peice of shit NasDogs are trying to break out, CSCO (which I HATE with a passion, mainly because of Chambers) had a little break out yesterday, WITH some volume, and "could" be headed for the June high. I think it reports next week, so be aware of that.

The XLF and FAS are BOTH on the verge of a break out, which is weird, because BAC looks just awful, which means there could be some type of pairs trade there, I'll leave that idea up to you.

The coal sector is trying to break out, I have MEE on the chart.

Even stoogey old Wally World is on the verge of a break out.

The Semi's have been lagging, mainly because of peices of shit like this, MRVL, which of course is associated with AAPL, this is NOT a break out pattern, it's for people like me, that is, slimey bottom feeders. It's trying to set up a nice little positive divergence in both the MACD and RSI, and "COULD", try to move higher. NATURALLY, if the markets go higher, this will ALSO have to move higher. Another nice thing about this, is it has an OBVIOUS stop loss point, if you are inclined to take stop losses.

Preliminary Premarket 8/5/10

Both these charts have the same "look" to them, it's a five minute chart of the Q's at the top, and a 30 minute chart of the SPY under it, what it is, is they both have bearish looking rising wedges, which doesn't mean they can't go higher, they can certainly continue to walk along the top trend line, and in fact, they could easily do a throw over above the upper trend lines, in which case they may come back and "test" the trend line, just to see if it holds.

But what really gets me about them, is the compression I am seeing in the two indicators under the price charts, that's the TSV and MACD, as they are both forming a perfect flag like triangle, which simply means they are going to break out one way or da udder, and probably for a huge move, IE, it's getting pretty exciting. I haven't had time yet to get a confirmation on what type of Elliott Wave count we are on, so I'm kind of in the dark on that point, but the STOCH at the bottom is very over bought on both of them, which leads me to believe the break will be to the down side, BUT, indicators can stay over bought way longer than I can stay solvent, so I'd probably want to see a break of the lower trend line on those wedges before trying a short, naturally the five minute will break down before the 30 minute (or wiilllllllll it??). The other negative thing of course, is that both of those indicators in the compression stage are diverging to the down side against the rising price action, IE, making lower highs each time price makes a new high, definitely not good, BUT (there's always a BUTT, ain't there, I sound like a stinking economist), it doesn't mean they can't, against all odds, break to the upside.

I'm only mentioning the short, because if it breaks to the upside, there's no way in fricking hell I'm taking the stupid things long, I mean, yea yea yea yea, they'll probably go to da moon, but it's going with out me, I'll wait for a back test of the upper trend line before considering a long on them.

I wanted to mention some thing about the new short on the Q's on the daily charts of the MSW, the software has a confirmed buy on the longer term weekly chart, which is a signal it generates when it already has an on going buy signal on it, and then it see's some thing new it likes, and basically issues a new signal for it. To show I'm basically fair, I kind of agree with it, the weekly charts look pretty damn good, the June high is going to be the huge test of course, but if it can get over that, I see no way it doesn't attack the April highs.

That's neither here nor there of course, as my time frames are reduced to about 1 minute at this point, and I'm taking nothing for swing trades, other than my junker clunker leap "Stop Loss" option plays, that I keep around just to have some thing to do in my spare time.

Midweek MSW Update for 8/5/10

It's been awhile so I thought I'd do a midweek update on the MSW and see what it thinks, and Waaaaa Laaaaaa, it thinks the markets could stall right here, just like Sysin mentioned in the comments section, hahahahahahaha, the damn software is smarter than I thought! On the daily charts it has about one new buy signal for every three new short signals, fairly bearish.

I should RE-mention, that the magic software is just a "prospecting" tool, it just spits out ideas, and in no way should trades be taken based just on it's signals, all ideas should have you doing your own due diligence.

It kind of likes oil, which proves it's a band wagon hoping front runner type, as oil has been blowing up, WHICH, is just GRRREEEAAAAAAT for consumers, hahahahaha, wad ever, I have DIG on the chart only because I, well, dig it, it also likes other oil related etf's such as USO, KWT which is a solar ETF, as solar moves with oil, EWA, Australia, as they are commodity related, and BDH, the Broad Band holders, as my broad band enables me to find out the software likes oil, so I can put a chart of it up, and talk about it, and shit like that.

The software is an equal opportunity hater, as it hates just about every thing, I put the new short on the chart for the QQQQ's because, well, it's in the blog name, and of course, I love to hate those stupid NasDogs.

The rest of the shorts are on the list down below, I have a couple of charts of the Q's ready to go, but I'm tired, I just got done with some more painting, and I spent a couple of hours of very nice conversation earlier with Jeff and BZ in the new ETF Prophet chat room, BZ has moved his site over there, and they've got some good stuff going on, as always of course, I have the site listed on the Blog List on the right side. I'll put the charts up for the morning update if I wake up tomorrow (that's always my first major victory), but I agree with Sysin, I HATE'EM!

On the longer term weekly charts it pretty much hates bonds, which is fine with me, because if I can get the stupid things to dump, IE, interest rates go up (GOOD LUCK WITH THAT ONE!), I'll be piling back into them.

Anyway, I pretty much expect tomorrow to be a waiting day, as we await the jobs report on friday, which is fine with me, I'll get some more painting done.

Good luck to you out there in La La Land.

NOW Premarket AND Watch List for 8/4/10

6:45am: Ignore the time stamp, this is now actually Wednesday morning, 8/4, as I do my best to conserve and save paper.

First off, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, if Da Boyz on the street weren't so damn entertaining I wouldn't even remotely consider being involved, HAHAHAHA, the MSM is just getting slaughtered this morning as they do their best to try and keep up with da pump jobs being done on the futures, Rueters started it off with this, "Stock futures dip as economic jitters hit global shares", http://yhoo.it/aS2cyU , mostly based on Japan being down over 2 percent, then they had to change it to this, "Stock Futures Buoyed by ADP Jobs Data", http://yhoo.it/bTN0lX , Yahoo Finance and the rest of them aren't having much better luck.

ANYWAY, the point is, number one, for some magical reason the futures blast off over 72 points higher, because ADP came out and said the private sector gained 42K fricking jobs???!!!!! Hahahahahaha, I'm not sure, but I think we lost some thing like 8 fricking milllllllllion jobs the last two years, hell, 42K jobs won't even make a dent in this one horse town, and number two, I wish you could go back and see some of the previous ADP releases, the ones that were BAD of course, as the MSM always talked about how ADP was almost always wrong, and not to worry about it, and crap like that, now that it's GOOD, and fits their bull shit thesis, they are claiming the ADP data is ALWAYS RIGHT, hahahahahahahahhah!! What a bunch of stinking roaches, wad ever, I find it one of da better pump Yob's I've seen by da Boyz, and it's interesting that the 42K was only worth a test of yesterdays high from about 10am, if the number had been 43K would we be making new highs??????!!!!

ANYWAY, getting away from La La Land for a minute, I also find it amusing that "they" are completely ignoring the Challenger data, "Planned layoffs edge up in July: Challenger", http://yhoo.it/9LtZwp , in which THEIR data showed job cuts INCREASING 6 percent, for the third month in a row, and this is truly unbelieveable, to 41,676 planned cuts in July, which is unfrickingbelieveable, because it's almost EXACTLY the same as the 42K increase shown by ADP, hahahahahahaha, can you spell C-O-N-F-U-S-I-O-N?????!!!!

SIGH! Wad ever, all this has done is reduce my time "horizions", AGAIN, it went from five minutes, down to two minutes a couple of nights ago, now I'm down to ONE MINUTE time frames, hahahahahahaha!

7:26PM: Hahahahahahaha, I shit you not, it's 77 degrees here and the ground is covered with snow!!! Ok, so I pumped it a little, actually it's hail, but it's covered the ground enough, and I've seen enough snow here, that it sure looks like fricking snow to me!! Like the locals here say, don't fall in love with it, wait five minutes and the wheather will do a 180 degree turn around. I might add, it's MUCH better here than Hawaii, that constant same air and water temperature is EXTREMELY irritating (YEA, RRRRRIIIIIIGGGGGHHHHTTTT!!).

Very unusual day yesterday, IE, it don't happen very often, the SPY had an inside day, AND, an NR7 day, narrowest day of the last seven days. What's even more unusual is the number of ETF's that I track that also had the same parameters, that being 67 out of the 384, I mean, I can go days with out finding ONE ETF that does it. The reason I bring it up is because this is a standard scan I do every day on the ETF's and the Russell 1000, this is an excellent scan if you like to day trade individual stocks, it's almost a 99.99999999 percent probability that you will make money on these parameters with a break over or under the close, really, HONEST!! The nice part about the NR7 is that you have nice narrow risk definitions, IE you don't have to take huge stops on a trade. Wad ever, the complete list is below the chart, with the ETF's full filling the parameters labled as "TRUE".
I high lighted an even rarer pattern in the red circle, this happens like, well, once in a Blue Moon, that's the "Matching Highs" pattern, as high lighted in Suri Duddella's book. This is mainly looked for in intraday setups, you look for three candles in a row that make the same exact high, then short the shit out of it at will, the highs weren't exactly the same in the daily SPY, but close enough for moon shots, three lousy cents, and the REALLY wierd part, is that it actually worked! The same pattern can be taken with the exact opposite setup, which, for some strange reason, is called matching lows. Anyway, I want you to keep this pattern in the back of your mind at all times, just in case it ever shows up again, in like, the next 30 years, hahahahahahahaha!

Here's ANOTHER rare pattern (this must have been a RARE day!), it's an inside day WITH an NR7 day, FOLLOWED by ANOTHER inside and NR7 day, whew, it just don't get any better than this, that would be LLTC, MXIM at the bottom of that list is showing the same exact pattern, if I had to guess (which I do all the time, as it's the trading strategy I've tested on TradeStation the most times), I'd say the Semi's are going to make a huge move, which way is any ones fricking guess.

I just know you wanted to go through each and every one of the 93 stocks in the Russell 1000 that showed up on the scan, so I included the rest of the list.

AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGUUUUUUUUHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

SIGH!! I guess, unofficially, I'm back, although my head is still in La La Land, although it's definintely NOT the same La La Land as any "inwestor's" that may be buying into the unreal bull shit being spread around, sigh, I much prefer lying on my back gazing at the clear azul sky as I perform my patented upside down body surfing of the monster combers rolling in, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1MaBb3lFlg&feature=related , the film crew still hasn't found any one able to develope the film I had left over in my Anscomatic Optical Lens 15mm movie camera with the Ektachrome film, but when they do I'll have the premiere available for release.
I'm not very used to Jet lag parameters, but the transition back to "MY" time seems much worse than the trip over, I was going to bed around 9pm in Haaaaavviiiieeee, as that was about 1am here, now I'm not able to get to sleep until 1am here, and still waking up at my usual 5am or so, YUCKO! Wad ever, another six months and I'll probably be back to normal, just in time for the NEXT trip, hopefully, WOOOOOOOO HOOOOOO! Not helping matters was that after I landed, I left Vegas at about 12:30am and didn't get home until 4:30am, the 12:30am was only 8:30pm Hawaii time, so I'm totally screwed up.

ANYWAY, glad to see the bull shit is reaching fever proportions back here, the indexes rallied two percent yesterday based on the FACT that the ISM declined for the third month in a row, AND, the China PMI also fell for the third month in a row, and EVEN better, fell to a 16 month low, so the market did what it has been doing in the face of continuing economic deteriation, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, it laughed in the face of adversity, http://bit.ly/cRMSXS !!! It's a good thing that "THEY" continue to completely ignore the LEI's that have been falling since last November, as they have a 100% track record since 1972 in calling recessions when the indicator's have fallen more than 10%, http://moneymorning.com/2010/08/03/ecri/ , lucky for the bull's they are only down 10.6%, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
Since I'm starting to get into my normal cheery self, I should mention the little note I got from ChangeWave this morning, you may remember I mentioned the emergency letter they sent out last month detailing the fact that the 30,000+ members reported the first pull back in comsumer spending in over a year, this morning they are lamenting the fact that their Alliance, the 10,000 firms that make up their basic business forecasts, just released a report showing the first decrease in software spending in the last six months, with a 25% increase in the number of firms unwilling to pop for new software expenses over the next 90 days (can you spell M-S-F-T????). That's probably why the NasDog's are giving a contary indicator by continuing to lag the current rally.
Speaking of the Dog's, the bull's are having their way this morning, trying to take prices down to more attractive valuations, as the negative divergences on that 60min chart at the top are working their magic, there's probably nothing in my little Hell's half acre here that could get me to buy this shit, and I must say, that a break below that lower trend line would probably not be to fricking, aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh, GOOD!

Finally, I leave you with probably the contrary magazine cover of the year award, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, can you imagine, here's the greatest bond brain of the last half century getting into an area he know's absolutely NOTHING about, as evidenced by his call of DOW 5000 a number of years ago, now telling "you" that stocks are the place to be!! Sigh, wad ever Billy Bob.

Anyway, this maybe my last post until after Labor day, it will probably take me that long to get back into my "normal" routine, good luck to you out there in La La Land.

Well, blow me over with a slimely cow pie, could there be more lies, this time about the $1.8 Tttrrrriiillllllion that corporations are supposedly hoarding, ready to drive us to new all time highs with a buying spree, http://yhoo.it/9eCStW ????? How about $7.2 Ttttrrrriiiiilllllllion in DEBT!!! Sigh, it be a record, it be.

Ok, sigh, since I'm talking about lies, I guess I should come clean, despite doing my best Marc Faber impersonation, as unfrickingbelieveable as it may seem, I, some times, may not do exactly, eeeeeeerrrrrrr, what I'm mouthing off about. One thing I did do was completely dump out of my bond funds in Vanguard, that being the VWEHX and VBLTX split, as I was a happy camper with the total 7.8% gain I got, just slightly more than what the dividend on that risky VWEHX would have paid for a whole year, besides, it's not like I don't need some cash right now! PLUS, my "over all" thesis remains pretty much the same, that being what my hero Charles Nenner said, UP in August, giving "inwestor's" the last chance in their life time to get out at higher prices, prior to Mr. Gross's prediction of DOW 5000 finally comes true! I've had a couple of "confirming" thoughts being put forth by a couple of udder "Guru's" I like, BUT, unlike Charlie, they tend more to my "real" view, that we probably get a pull back in September and October, prior to the election BLAST OFF (see my yearly prediction from last January)! One of them was none udder dan Stan Stovel of Standard and Poors, he gave out some interesting "facts" about the second and third year "Presidential" cycles ("Presidential" seems a rather over blown term considering the last two we've had, Chenney and un udder one I won't mention) during the Mid Term elections, which I think is going to play out to the hilt this year. It all depends on if the Democraps suceed in their quest to hide the "true" deficits until the election is over with, which the Republican Guard is doing their damnest to try and bring out (WHICH, I might add, THEY are as responsible for, if not more so, dan da udder ahole bunch), the MAJOR surprise right now would be if the Dem's confound EVERY one, and manage to hold both houses, THAT, would be the shock that would bring those obnoxious doomsayers predicitions true, as it would probably give them free rein to NOT extend the Chenney tax cuts for he and that udder guy that was renting the White House at the time (mostly with their oil money by the way). The markets would probably get wind of it prior to the election, which would spur the pull back, that "could" turn into some better, like about a 50% dump, WOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO! As a raging bull, I would LOOOOOOOVE to see it, but, sigh and alas, should the Guard and their recyced has beens, some times called the Tea Party, succed in getting split houses, Stan's out look would probably come true, that being that the third year of the cycle "usually" produces gains averaging about 18 percent. The reason being of course, that the Dem's probably wouldn't be able to get a second "spending" plan through, in which most of it is spent on more whore houses for Acorn, and both parties may agree to try and reduce the $3 TRRRIIIIIIIILLLLION deficit that some people are citing as the possible reason for trying to hide it. Besides, as I think we will find out next week when the FOMC comes out with their worthless statement, Uncle Ben is going to be pulling on the stops out on QE-2, to try and save us from the "Great Recession Part Doce" that he has been warning we are right on the verge of (amazing, isn't it, about how the markets are just totally ignoring what he is saying?????).

Wad ever, I'll just continue to do what I've been doing, that is, investing with about a five minute time horizon (OOPS! Nix that, it just went to two minutes, hahahahahahahaha!!!).