Weekly Sector Update and MSW Trade Ideas

Nothing very unusual about the asset flows this week, every thing that is ANTI dollar went up, while the dollar went down, as Bennie Da Pumper continued on his merry way of doing exactly what the last two administrations in this country have done, and this is completely disregard little things like the Constitution and things called "LAWS", in the case of Washington, and mandates, as in the case of Bennie, for in previous generations the FED seemed to have a mandate of controlling inflation, while now THEIR, or more to the point, HIS, stated mandate is to INCREASE inflation, and much to HIS credit, the flows into commodities confirms that HE's getting HIS wish.

Wad ever, the XLF is interesting,  the main scheme of the Evil Empire, some times called the FED, is to save their precious banks by keeping interest rates low so they can rip the rest of the country off by charging higher rates to loan the money out to the individuals that are paying for all their pumping, so they are buying the short end of the curve to keep short term rates low, which of course only their precious banks can borrow that money, and those same banks can turn around and loan it to all those poor individuals that are under water and behind in their payments on their houses at the much higher Long end of the curve, which immediately started rising after the FOMC announcement, as shown on the $TYX.

Anyway, VERY obvious consolidation by XLF the last four months while the rest of the markets went higher, the range was $2.50 from the low to the high, THEREFORE, the NEW range will be from $15 to  a high of $17.50, it's coming up on a short term congestion area around $16, in the red circle, so it "could", slow up a little, MAYBE, even, have a little pull back, but, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, I'll believe THAT when I see it. 

Speaking of that, a (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA), "PULL BACK", that is, Cycle Waves has a pull back scenario that I pretty much agree with, actually, that should be I "HOPE" for, http://cyclewave.homestead.com/110110.html , although I would point out that if you read his prior post from way back last March, he was completely wrong about THAT one, so he's probably WRONG about his one. The best TA "free" blog on the Inet, Cobra, http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/ , is also making a decent case for a pull BAC, mainly off of the closes outside the bollingers, on the daily and weekly charts. 

Speaking of WRONG, EWI, Elliott Wave International, of which I have advertisements plastered all over the page here, was forced to completely screw their subscribers, and FLIP FLOP on their bearish counts, for with the close above the April highs it negates their primary wave count, that being the bear market low from March of 09' being the "1" wave, with the rally off those lows being the "2" Wave, as they've been breathlessly awaiting the 3, of 3, of 3, of 3, of 3, blah blah blah, etc etc etc, DEVASTATING, CATACLYSMIC, CATASTROPHIC, drop into the depths of hell. Of course, I would imagine that all they'll do is just, "adjust", the count a little, to make room for more of an extension of the current rally, before the, "BIG", one, starts, wad ever, congratulations to Tony Caldaro for having it right the last 19 months while EWI kept their people out of the market, http://caldaro.wordpress.com/ .

The MSW came up with a ton of new trades this week on the ETF's, I have NO COMMENT on them, they all look the same to me, LONG and SHORT, so screw it, it was pretty evenly split between new longs and shorts, that XLF thing above looks about as good as any thing if you want to go long, you might like LONG the XLF and short the SPY, or IWM, or wad ever, the Q's look horrible the last two days, but that's another wad ever. 

It didn't come up with nearly as many ideas on the weekly charts, but of those that it did come up with, it's decidedly BEARISH on them, coming up with about 9 new shorts for every new long.

It came up with a ton of new trade ideas on the Russell 1000 as well, and just like the ETF's, it just about evenly split between new longs and shorts. 

I'm not doing any more commentary, in fact I don't even have the foggiest idea why I'm here right now, other than I'm bored with my studies this weekend, but all those four charts I have on there all have one thing in common, THE MARKET SUCKS!!, but, probably not in the way you may interpret that comment.

A pretty calm, collected individual, the Fund My Mutual Fund guy, probably says it best in this post,

Atypical Technical Action that is Wrecking Bears , http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/search?updated-max=2010-11-05T15:51:00-04:00&max-results=3 , he uses FLS as the example, and it's a good one, as the company comes out and says SHIT things, the stock sells off, AS IT SHOULD, and then, it has a magic UP day, IE, rather than keep dropping it STOPS, and makes investors who may be waiting for a reasonable valuation, chase it.

This relates directly to those charts, GLW is actually a fine looking chart, it's had a high level side ways consolidation and is probably going higher, it's a fine old American company that was an original member of the DOW a hundred years ago, it reported much lower 3Q results on monday, and MISSED those estimates, and basically said things SUCK, as people aren't buying as many of the big screen TV sets as the dumb bastards are supposed to, plus they are getting HEAVY competition from the Asian LCD makers, of which GLW is NOW a member, since they abandoned the US and built that HUGE factory in Taiwan, so the stock drops into Tuesday, and then goes UP the rest of the week. Those other, aaaahhhhhhhh, BUYS, CSCO, ADBE and INTC, all did the same thing, they report, saying what they said BEFORE, things SUCK, they go down, and now here they are back up where they started, before the first or second time they tried to explain to "investors", things are not that great, WAD EVER, they are going higher, there's no doubt about it, and by the way, CSCO reports this week, in which case John Chambers will say what he's said the last couple of reports, THINGS SUCK, it will go down, for a day or two, and then start going back up, I GUARANTEE IT!!!!, so, BUY THE STUPID THING!!

No sense repeating myself, AGAIN, the weekly charts are just a LONGER term amount of BULL SHIT that I said above, SIGH, although, the software is pretty bearish, with about 3 new shorts for every new buy.

FITB looks just as good as any other financial to take long, and TNC is SUCH a piece of SHIT, it's undoubtedly going to Da FRICKING MOON!!! I have no comment on the two short ideas, WHR and SHLD, other than to rehash the bull shit I said above. 

Wad ever, this short period of being BAC where I'm NOT any more, IE, HERE, reminds me of why I'm NOT here, any more, sigh, I may be BAC (I keep saying that, in case any one is reading through this to try and figure out exactly what I'M involved with) next weekend with some more blathering bull shit, wad ever, I'll worry about it then, if you get lucky, and we get a massive 5% pull BAC, BUY INTO IT, as we are going up into next June, as Investor's are piling into La La Land, and you should be too (two, to????). 

Good luck to you. 

The TLT, at the top, didn't react very well to the QE2 announcement today. Now, I don't know when they started QE1, but I know when they ended it, and that was in April of this year, you remember that, RIGHT, the red arrow on the bottom chart points to it, which is the monthly chart of the TLT, if you look at the SPY chart above it, it points to that same month, and WE all know what came after that, some thing called the Flash Crash. Anyway, I guess we have until next June before they end this one, so I guess forewarned, is forewarned, you have until then to make your fortune.
I received some bad news yesterday that has depressed me to no end, I mean, Reid and Boxer getting reelected is enough to DEPRESS any one, but it wasn't that, just personal stuff, anyway it was bad enough that I ceased to function, and since the stuff I write here is BAD enough when I'm in a GOOD mood, I'm shutting down for awhile. I may be back shortly (GET SHORTY!), or, I may NEVER be BAC, wad ever, in case I don't make it back, good luck to you out there in La La Land, and may you always obey your stops.

NON-CHOICE DAY

9:30am: SIGH! Disregarding my own advice, the dirty deed is done, I couldn't help myself, just the thought that my ONE vote might be enough to bring Washington to it's knee's, was enough to over come my distaste for being part of the corrupt "system", wad ever.

7:45am: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IT'S AAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLL GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD!!!!! BUY ANY THING!!!! WOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oops, forgot to circle the FXE as well, hahahahahahahaha, wad ever!!!!

6:00AM: Futures are turning higher the last hour, as hope springs eternal on NON-CHOICE DAY, with FOX News already claiming that THEY won the election.
Wad ever, were setting up an ascending triangle, with a break higher obviously going back to the April highs in the $122 "area", and the lower trend line providing the just as obvious LINE IN THE SAND.

We've already had our first polling incident in this one horse town, with a group of cow's arrested carrying signs saying eat more chickin.
I find it a little strange that in the single most conservative State in the Union, we have no Tea Party candidates, unless they are running under the "CONSTITUTION" party banner, we have a LOT of those. Regardless, I find it a pretty sad state of affairs that the main "CHOICE" we have is to boot the current bunch out and replace them with the idiots that got us into this mess, as the Republican Guard talks with crooked mouth BEFORE the election, but their whole intent will be to maintain the status Quo AFTER they get elected, sigh, my only hope, which will probably only happen waaaaaaaaay after I'm gone, is my Grandson becomes the Luke Skywalker that the country needs, and eliminates the Evil Empire in Washington.

STINKIN POLITICIANS! We have a card check Constitutional amendment on the ballot here, and I've read it until I'm blue in the face, and for the life of me I still can't figure out whether a vote FOR it is to ban card checks, IE, maintain secret ballots for employee voting, or to ALLOW card checks, both of the arguments in the ballot program say that BOTH a vote FOR it, OR, a NO vote, maintains the secret ballot, hahahahahahaha, god, what a bunch of roaches, the only hint I get is to see who is supporting a YES vote on it, and then go through the districts to see what party they are affiliated with, and it appears a YES vote is supported by the Left wing Republican Guard, and a NO vote is supported by the even more left wing Democraps, so I guess it's a YES vote. They won't allow the Constitutional's to make a comment on it in the pamphlet, typical bull shit.

I was going to encourage every one to exercise their only true right left under the original Constitution in this country, and go vote, but I believe what PJ O'Rourke says, DON'T VOTE, IT ONLY ENCOURAGES THE BASTARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good luck to you out there in La La Land today.

Premarket 11/01/10

7:00am: "THEY" are making a shambles of the head and shoulder formation on the 30 minute chart, or ARRRRREEEE THEY??!! The top chart is the one I put out on Friday morning, I think, maybe it was thursday, wad ever, no damage was done on Friday as we wallowed around, accept that the TSV broke into a negative divergence, in the circle on the bottom chart. With the SPY currently trading at $119 in the premarket they are gapping us over the down trend line, IE, that's good, at least it is for people that love higher prices and worse valuations, BUT, all we are doing is opening at the upper end of the H and S, it really won't be taken out unless we can go higher from here and HOLD over $119 on any retest of that "area". If we follow the typical Monday morning MO, "THEY", gap us higher, then all the normal people come in after the open, and are REPULSED by the higher prices, and we quietly sell back down to the gap fill from Friday, and start the week all over again. I'm probably dreaming, but that's the scenario I see, of course, the ISM at 10am is the biggie, we probably get a little, aaaaaaahhhhhhh, VOLATILITY, around that time. This is a little later by the by, but we will be opening up out side the Bollinger bands on that chart, and that in itself is almost an automatic sell signal, of course, miracles happen every day, but if they take us higher into the ISM, I'd be verwy careful about chasing any further higher prices, at least until they can pull us back inside the BB's. 

Good luck to you out there in La La Land. 

6:35am: Geeze, those dumb ass Bear's will just NEVER give it up, GIVE UP THE GHOST ROSSIE, http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-q3-gdp-was-just-80-basis-points-shy-of-a-double-dip-2010-10 , hahahahaha, I'm just kidding of course, I, like, totally agree with every thing he's saying, as he completely dismantle's the "good" GDP report from Friday, wad ever, with the amount of free money sloshing around there ain't NO WAY it doesn't find a home, and right now that's in the "under valued" equity markets.

Double OOPS! Personal income came in WAY below expectations, it actually printed a NEGATIVE .1% vs the "expected" plus .2%, so it comes as no surprise that Personal spending came in 50% LOWER than "expected", .2% vs the .4% "expected" and the .5% we got last month, wad ever, the futures TRIED to take off south, but luckily, "SOME ONE", came flying in to pick up the SAVE, hahahahhaha, like Butch and the Kid said, WHO ARE THOSE GUYS???!!!!! Anyway, that's the first OOPS, the second one is that the ISM comes out at 10am ET, Hmmmmmm, I could swear it used to be released with the normal reports at 8:30am, wad ever, I'm thinking right now, Hmmmmm, let me see, the day before the Mid Term elections, and the most important economic report of the month comes out, and the Democractic controlled Government has absolutely NO INTEREST in making sure it's a gang buster, Hmmmmmmm, give me a minute, I'm thinking, Hmmmmmmmm....................................... you think it might be a GOOD ONE??????

6:00am: Futures have been flying over night, DOW up about 40 points, although they've been up as much as 80 points, that's the good news, some of the bad news is that almost ALL of those gains came in the first 15 minutes after the open last night, when "SOME BODY", with BIG pockets, came flying in to buy every thing, we've been wallowing down hill since then, in fact the EURO took off south about two hours ago, lifting the dollar, and taking some of the gains away from oil, gold, and natural gas (go UP, BITCH!), China was up big time, about 2.5%, after their version (LIKE, you can believe any thing that comes out of those commie bastards) rose to 54.7, I guess a .9 point rise is worth a 2.5% gain, hahahahahahahaha, wad ever!

Anyway, the $NYMO is baffling me with bull shit, both the daily and weekly are on SELL signals on the $NYSI, in the past these have NEVER failed to signal a pull back, but the thing that gets me is the absolutely horrible divergence the $NYMO's been doing the ENTIRE time since the rally started on the first trading day in September, I mean, the daily is bad enough, but that weekly configuration, in the red circle, is just about the weirdest looking thing I've ever seen, I just, well, I don't know what to make of it, if it's right, it means there has been virtually NO support behind this rally, IE, IT'S ALL BULL SHIT!!

Wad ever, that's neither here nor there, back after we get the ISM report in a half hour.