It's no surprise, I guess, that with the risk on trade back on, the dollar and bonds took it on the chin this week, with the worst out flows, nor does it surprise me that the XLF came in with the second best inflows, as Goldman worked their magic with the upgrade of the banks, and on that note I checked the news on Goldie to see if any of their buddies across the street had UPGRADED Goldie in return, it appears they haven't, YET, but you can bet your bottom dollar that the favor return is coming, hahahahahahaha, those guys do crack me up!
What did surprise me a little was that the SPY was the best performer of the major indexes, I could have sworn the IWM would be the big gainer, although they did come in second, also surprising was the under performance of Da Q's, I guess money managers are rotating into the small caps and the financials and abandoning those maaaaaaaavelous Q's, wad ever, that was last week, they'll probably rotate back in next week.
JNK is the chart of the week, it's been lagging Da Udder indexes and had a big volume surge on Friday, so, maybe, it's going to play some catch up. For you bond players, like ME, I've shown in the past how it pays to take the JNK and TLT in tandem, or VBLTX and the VWEHX in the vanguard funds, as they tend to move opposite of each other and you can up your yield with the nice 9.63% you get in JNK, HOWEVER, rising interest rates are NOT going to be good for the Junk bonds, so that pairs trade could be due for a period of volatility and under performance.
The two circles show the similarity between the pump Da Boyz pulled the first day after the Labor Day weekend, and the same stunt they pulled this week on the first day of December, as I guess they are making under performing fund manager's chase the market into year end, it cracks me up as both of them were just HUGE Bear Traps by Da Boyz, as both of the preceding little periods were OBVIOUS short setups, I mean, it's just a stinking miracle that we got those huge over night gaps when the indexes were right on the verge of heading into the depths of hell, A STINKING MIRACLE I TELL YA!!
Wad ever, the GOOD part is that it only took three days to get back to the November highs, whereas back in September it took a couple of weeks before we took out the August highs. The BAD part is that the "internals" continue to lag on the current rally, back in September both TSV and MS made new highs before price made it over the August highs, IE, they were "leading" the market higher, both indicators continued higher into the October highs with the market, breaking over the October highs into the November highs, SINCE that time both of them have a negative divergence with the new price highs, as the SPY had a new closing high over the November high while both TSV and MS are lagging, although they both finally crossed above the recent consolidation period on Friday, but it seems obvious to me that my main indicator, TSV, is NOT going to confirm the new highs.
EVEN WORSE, from my own personal view, is the A/D's are not looking good at all. As show by the three arrows on the left the A/D's actually LED the market higher each time we made new price highs coming out of the August lows, and as I mentioned earlier this week this is actually the first time since the March 09' bottom that the A/D's have NOT been in a leading configuration, the arrow on the far right side shows where they are right now, and they really haven't even confirmed the break out over the recent consolidation, much less broken over the November high like the SPY did.
The coming week is going to be pretty critical, a BEAR would look at that chart and say that with a lower open on Monday we could be looking at a failed double top, but of course I don't know ANYONE who could possibly be a stupid BEAR, hahahahahaha, I have no doubt Da Boyz are going to work their Sunday night "magic" in the futures and gap us over the November highs, AGAIN! I can accept that, as the MOMO is definitely to the upside, but the A/D's are the MAIN indicator when it comes to the health of the markets, and this change in character is disturbing, I mean, I'm sure that if the market continues higher then the A/D's will get over those November highs, but it's the fact that they have gone from being a LEADING indicator, to a LAGGING indicator, is NOT good. Even WORSE will be if the market continues higher and the A/D's fail to take out the November high, that would be the first major sell signal since they did that at the July, and then again at the October highs in 07'.
I circled the MACD at the bottom as it's done a bullish upside cross, I only bring this up because of the trading system in the Stock Trader's Almanac, they consider this the BUY signal for their Best Six Months of the year time period, their system has the cross over when it happens in October, it's just a little late this year.
The small caps are leading the charge higher, but they are exhibiting the same negative TSV and MS configurations as the other indexes. One reason I bring them up is the "gaming" of the seasonality trends, as the Stock Traders Almanac has always talked about their out performance in January, as they call that the January "effect", but of course Da Boyz make sure it starts earlier and earlier each year, and have been having a tendency to shell lack the retails that buy into the bull shit in January, wad ever, we shall see what they do with it next year.
SLV is showing the same possible double top as the indexes, although I'm undoubtedly just as wrong about it as I was on the short call during the August lows, hahahahahaha, roaches, wad ever, it probably going to Da fricking moon.
Wooooo Weeeeee, that's one uuuuugggggily looking chart for bonds, you might say that's some thing of an Island reversal on, Waaaaaa Laaaaaa, December 1st, the coming test of the November low is going to be interesting, if we are going to go through it we should, GO THROUGH IT, IE, it should NOT test it, like take it out by a couple of cents and then bounce, if it does that then we could be looking at a double bottom.
I've shown some articles in the past about how RISING interest rates are actually GOOD for the market, BUT, that was when the "FED" was RAISING interest rates, the reason being that the FED only raises interest rates when the economy is doing good and in danger of over heating, it's obvious right now that the Bond market thinks the FED is behind the curve, and the economy doing better than what they think, but I have to wonder what the FED see's that has them so scared to death that they are doing every thing they can to hold rates down and pumping unprecedented amounts of free money into the capital markets, it kind of makes you wonder, DON'T IT????? It makes me wonder.
The money flow leader XLB is only composed of 26 stocks, and, NO, don't ask me why in the hell ECL is in this index, hahahahaha, wad ever, anyway, NUE led the flows, but I like the chart of X a lot better, although on a personal basis I'm in AKS, which is kind of a trading stock of mine, NUE has not gotten over the consolidation from last June yet while X has, the weekly chart sure looks like X has pretty much Clear Air, or a VOID, or Air Pocket, back up to the April highs, of course, you "COULD" say, that NUE has room to run MORE than X, wad ever, take your pick. I circled a couple of others I like, AA and LPX, FCX was the big winner on the week with an 11% gain.
WOOD is GOOD! Being a MASTER carpenter that's my favorite saying of course, I guess the market agree's, as they think the bottom in housing is in, finally, REALLY, HONEST!!! Hahahahaha, I personally DON'T think so, but what do I know. Palladium was the big winner this week, flying 13% as CNBC had show after show exclaiming the auto industry is BACK, as the average American making $50K a year is going to be buying those $41K Volts like CRAZY MANNNNNN, hahahaha, that gets a big yyyeeeeeeeeeaaaaaa, RIGHT!! I hope some one followed me into my PAL call I made a few months ago, it still looks great, and I see no reason to sell it, YET.
RJI is on the chart, I kind of like it.
It's no surprise that the big industry money flow loser's this week were bonds, short ETF's and any thing short commodities, and for some strange reason it appear's that "investors" may be shying away from those maaaaaaavelous MBS's, now, why would THAT be????
