Pring Turner has a nice graphical look at prior secular bear markets,
http://www.pringturner.com/newsletters/UpdateAnotherLostDecade.pdf , the chart above is from that look. I'm bringing it up because it agrees with what I've been saying about the phoney baloney March 09' "BOTTOM" since it supposedly happened, and, naturally, I wouldn't bring it up if it didn't agree, hahahahahhaha.........HAH!!!! Never, I mean, NEVER, in the history of bear markets have we "BOTTOMED" with a P/E of 184, and I wish they would have put the dividend yield of the S and P on that chart as well, as the yield usually gets close to what the P/E is when it bottoms, NOT, as in the case of March of 09', at less than 1%. I mean, wad ever, none of this means diddly fricking squat, it just piss's me off though that we are probably going to be wallowing for another ten years, sigh, until we stop doing every thing we can to "save" Wall Street and the banks, and start to encourage "saving" and "investment" by Americans, rather than doing every thing they can to try and get us to "spend", we aren't going any where, and of course, how in the hell can we "save", when you get less than 1% in your "savings" account???
Wad ever, the one thing I want to mention on the price charts, is my whole main "macro" thesis, and that is, in every one of the prior cycles we TOOK OUT the "SECOND" low, IE, we got a THIRD low before the secular part of it ended, as I noted by drawing a horizontal line that corresponds to the color they have for the designated period. The 1929-1949 bear market was the only one that DIDN'T take out the first low, but every one of them took out the second low before it was "over".
I've been watching this "thing" for quite a while, it's a pretty "high" risk play, but it carries a dividend yield of 12.66%, my favorite in the "group" is NLY, but I can't get the damn thing to pull back to where I want to buy it, about five points lower. They all get affected by higher interest rates as they work off of spreads, so that's the risk, BUT, if this thing can get through $7, WITH some VOLUME, it could really go.
I never talk about my, "portfolio", because, frankly, it's no bodies business but mine, also, with all the mouthing off I do about the end of the world, I'm not supposed to HAVE ONE, hahahahaha, udder dan short city, but I carry one around with me, as probably every one should, although it only makes up about 60% of my "total" assets, the rest being in real estate and cash or equivalents, and some Vanguard bond funds. In case any one has the remotest interest, the current allocation is "about", SPY-25%, TLT-35%, EWA-10%, and 5% each in MLN, RJI, GGN, JNK, VEA, and EEM, currently I have NO position in EEM, and VEA is "about" 2%. SPY and TLT are the day trading vehicles so I'm always making moves in them, MLN is kind of a bet on the Muni's AND it yields about 4.47%, much better than treasuries, JNK is just that but it yields 9.72% (PHK yields 11%, BUT, I don't trust that stinking PIMCO, it lost 80% during the FIRST down trend), RJI is the commodity hedge, along with GGN, which has a BIG yield, but nobody seems to know exactly what it is, hahahahaha, VEA and EEM are just kind of "UDDERS", although VEA does yield about 2.37%, much better than the paltry SPY.
Wad ever, I only bring this up because I was just checking to make sure EWA was holding up as one of the best yielding country ETF's, and it is, as it currently yields around 3.42%, only EWO and EWZ have a better yield that I could find, 3.94 and 3.54% respectively. Besides the yield, because the Aussies can be fairly volatile (REALLY??!!), you can get about 2.2% a month by selling a one strike out of the money call against the EWA, which adds another 26.4% "yield" each year. The Aussies go UP much more than us PrunePickers, as they gained about 400% off the 03' bottom while the SPY didn't even double, and, of course, they go DOWN a lot more as well, which we don't want to talk about. Australia is my favorite foreign country, other than Utah, as they actually speak a form of English, just like here, and it's the only place I know that does that AND I can get even further out in the BoonDocks than I can here, as it's been a life long dream of mine to run one of those "Stations" on the Trans Australian railway, that sits about 400 miles from the next form of civilization, that being another "Station". Unfortunately, I should have made the move about 35 years ago when we were young and had a wild hair up our ass's to get out of here, for with her now gone and the kids firmly entrenched in their life here, there doesn't seem much point in it any more. You know their life I'm talking about of course, that's where the government keeps them so busy trying to survive AND pay all the debts the government owes, that they don't have time to think that maybe there could be any thing better than that!!!!!!!!
Sigh, I'm still trying to figure out what happened to those 35 years.
You know, I like DRYS, and GNK and DSX, but I have a question for Moise, whom I GREATLY respect, he brought up DRYS in his blog, in fact this is his chart,
http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2011/02/dryships-inc-drys.html , the question is, isn't all that price action and volume in the red squares now "overhead supply", as all those "investors" are essentially under water, and will be waiting to get out at the first sign of further weakness????? And it actually made a series of HIGHER LOWS going into the December high, but it had an UH-OH in the red circle with it's first LOWER LOW! Just my personal opinion of course, obviously his "short trigger" could actually be your stop if you wanted to take a shot at it here, rather than waiting for his "C" trigger point at higher levels, again, just my personal opinion. Of course, if it's going to "fail", it "should", fail at the broken low, as that broken low should now become resistance, hhhmmmm, maybe that's why he has his buy point just above that low, hahahahahaha, wada ya know about that.
