Hhmmmmmm, I actually moved out of my five minute time frame and took a look at the weekly charts of all the stocks and ETF's that have weekly options, and I flashed by the SPY so fast I had to go back a couple of pages to take another look, as I got this "feeling" that it looked pretty unusual, hahahaha, and I was RIGHT! Number one, it was an "Inside" week, which is VERY unusual in and of itself, as it don't happen to often, but it's the "pattern", as we get this nice La La Land steady climb higher for months, and then suddenly we get this GAP DOWN Long bottom tail Doji the prior week, followed by the very same GAP DOWN Long bottom tailed Doji this week, which is also the "inside" week, and I go, whoa, I'll bet that doesn't happen very often!! So, what I did was go back eight years, which is very, VERY IMPORTANT! Why the eight years? Because that's how far I got before I got tired of pulling the chart up, copying it, pasting it, and then inserting it in the blog, hahahahahaha.......HAH!, there's a reason for every thing. Anyway, the current chart is at the bottom with the earliest two years at the top, and we've never, NEVER, had a pattern even CLOSE to this, NEVER!!!
Ok, so we've had some that were "close", I high lighted some of them in the circles, but this truly is a pretty unique pattern. So, what does this mean, IE, which way are we going next?? I DON'T HAVE THE FOGGIEST STINKING IDEA!! But what I CAN tell you, is that in the past, Doji's, Long Tailed Doji's, and Inside Days or Weeks have had a "tendency", to lead to BIG MOVES, but as shown on those charts it "could" go either way. One way to look at it is in the "CONTEXT" of where we are in the prior move, and obviously we have been in a major uptrend, and in the "past", these patterns have "usually" led to a trend change, but (as I insert the "disclaimer" here), not always, although the overwhelming odd's favor the trend change.
The good part is that your R/R is so obvious, as in, OBVIOUSLY, if we get over last week's high we are going, aaaaahhhhhh, eeeeerrrrrrr, HIGHER, and if we get under last week's low, we are going, aaaaahhhh, eeeerrrrrrr, hold on a minute, let me think about this awhile, oh, yea, we are going LOWER! It's pretty simple, really, actually, it's so simple it makes me suspicious, hahahahahaha, but wad ever, we also have a couple of nice trend lines there that are going to speak volumes all by themselves, if we break that short term one that goes back to late August, then it's probably ADIOS MF'er for awhile, as in lower, and the lower trend line is a major, MAJOR one, as in MAJOR support, right now it's sitting just about on the single most important support level we could have, that's the BREAK OUT we made over the April highs, which is the $120 number on the SPY, or 1200 on the SPX, for you Bull's a pull back to that level would be like a gift from God, hahahahaha, wooooooo weeeeeeee, even I might buy the stupid thing at that point!
Bottom line, I'm anticipating a big move coming up, I'm just not sure which way, but I HOPE, it's down.
I am not, I repeat, NOT, a conspiracy NUT (OK, so I AM, so sue me), but if I WAS one, I might think that the last five minutes on Friday may have been a little, aaaaaaahhhhhhhh, MANIPULATED!!!! The only reason I'm even bringing this up is because I was watching it, and worrying myself over whether to roll forward on my weekly ITM short calls on the SPY or not, any way I just about fell out of my chair on that last bar on that chart, I was laughing so hard, god, what a crock of shit! It's to bad you don't really have a "system" for trading this sort of thing, well, actually, you DO have a "system", I mean Wall Street and the "Government" have a vested interest in seeing the markets go higher, IE, more fee's for Da Boyz and more tax revenues for Da Government, the Government of course only gets those tax revenues when those stubborn "investors" take what ever profits they have and "SELL", thus the ACTUAL reason the "markets" ever go DOWN, is when the Government needs those tax revenues, so they tell their lackeys on Wall Street to force the markets lower and talk up the Bearish side of every thing, in the hopes they can shake those stubborn investors out of their positions and make them SELL, really, it has nothing to do with the economy or earnings or any of that BS, markets only go down because the Government needs the tax revenues, really, HONEST!
Where was I, hahahaha, got a little, aaahhh, side tracked there, ok, so we've established the vested interest by the two agencies above to close us higher, the whole point of closing us higher for the week is the reason why Da Street employs thousands of PHD psychologist types is because the retails only buy when the market is at it's highs, and going HIGHER, of course they only sell when the market is on it's all time lows, and going LOWER, and don't ask me why they do that, but they've done it since the first caveman made a market in Dino Doo Doo. They do this so their hired mouth piece, BubbleVision, can have their "experts" yell and scream at their two or three hundred viewers that, yea, we finished lower on the DAY, BUT, we finished HIGHER on the week, WOOOOOO HOOOOOO, BUY NOW BEFORE ITS TO LATE, so we can take the market down 20% next week so we can get you to sell and rake in all those tax receipts, hahahaha!
ANYWAY, there's actually NO "system" here, unless the main component of your "systems" is gambling, for it would only be common sense that "traders" would be getting out of Dodge on the anticipated escalating volatility in the Middle East over the weekend, which is probably WHY "they" were able to take it higher into the close so easily, catching people by surprise and all that stuff. I talked about that weekly close number in the midst of my babbling bull shit on Friday, $132.32, and how there was NO WAY they would close us under it, hahahahahahaha, whew, they scared the shit out of me for a while when we got down to around the $131.70 "area", I was starting to think we may get one of those Flash Crash type flush outs going into the last hour, as people start beating each other about the head trying to get out of the only fire door in the Casino, but, we managed a great "save". On a "technical" basis you actually did get a little "read" on what was coming, as the RSI started setting up a HUGE divergence about an hour ahead of the pop, so you actually did have a reason to "buy", with a stop right under the consolidation, but I wouldn't have taken it as I wouldn't have imagined that we would have gotten much of a pop going into the close, being a Friday and all that.
Anyway, it was OBVIOUS that "some body" was pumping it, because after the close we came right back down into the mid 20's, I think the low in the after hours was about $132.25, as who ever it was that got the free tax money from us was trying to exit in order to balance the FED books before the week was over, and the udder OBVIOUS reason it was manipulated was I thought that the weakness was due to the oil spike, and as you can see, oil didn't even REMOTELY try to come back down during the pump, in fact, it was trading OVER $105 in the after hours, as the half dozen people that control oil on the NYMEX floor did a ramp job ahead of the weekend, as they attempt to squash any hopes of an economic recovery.
Anyway, that's just my short little Thesis about the last five minutes of the week. On a personal basis I did NOT roll forward, I just left it alone and let it be called away. I'm actually gambling that I can pick the SPY up at LOWER levels next week, maybe we take a shot at the 50DMA which is sitting around $129.75, there's going to be a huge PILE IN if we get there, just like last November, and besides, the volatility this past two weeks kind of, aaahhhhh, "bothered" me some what. I'm selling deep ITM's just trying to pick up some "free" money, income type stuff, and the one day wonder volatility spikes are causing some, aaahhhh, consternations in the position. The whole point of risking your life for seven days by being in the "market", is on betting that the gradual climb continues, which enables chicken shit's like me to pick some of it up while still protecting myself against the unexpected, but the unexpected is showing up to often now, I mean, why make the move with an unbelievably LONG period of seven days, when I can wait for the one day wonder and get what I need with, hopefully, ONE DAY left until the weekly OpEx, WHICH, by the way, wouldn't have worked yesterday, sigh, I'm thinking maybe I'll just start sitting on my ass all week, and try and pick up .20 cents on the LAST day with a $1 ITM short call, although even that would have been pushing it on Friday. Sigh, such is life, I may actually have to WORK for the money, SHUDDER!
Ivica Juracich trading style explanation: For click here
