If this isn't the damnest "market", we keep doing these weiiiiiiirrrrrrd things MAAANNNNNN! It makes me want to do my Eastwood impression and growl, GGRRRRRRR, hahahahaha, you can probably tell I watched "Grand Torino" on TNT this weekend, a couple of times actually, I think it's funnier than hell (I guess I'm a little warped).
The chart is to small, but I wanted to get the last year in to show how rare these patterns have been, in the last three weeks we've had, in the red circles, a BOF, a Break out Failure bar, that just missed being a Bearish Engulfing bar, and led to four days down in a row, and two, TWO, Island Reversals or Abandoned Baby formations, that led to three days down in a row followed by a green bar on a fourth day gap down, and now on Friday we get the infamous "Inverted Hammer" candle, in the green circle. I circled two other candles in green over the last year where "similar" candles appeared, in August and November of last year.
Stockcharts.com defines the Inverted Hammer as a "potentially" bullish reversal candle,
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks, you have to go down almost to the bottom of the page to see the pattern, and it's the exact same candle as the Bearish "Shooting Star", accept in the context of where it occurs in the price pattern, IH occurs AFTER a decline while the SS occurs AFTER a rise. The bullish confirmation of the Inverted Hammer comes with a following day gap up OR long white candle WITH heavy volume, IE, Da Boyz do what they are famous for and gap us higher Monday morning in the infamous low volume over night futures markets, where they play with our free TAX MONEY with reckless abandon.
A little bullish confirmation of this pattern comes from Quantifiable Edges,
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/, where he talks about how RARE it is for the SPY to have two big DOWN days to start the month, since it's inception this has only happened FIVE times, and the returns during the next two weeks averaged 9% in GAINS, hahahahaha, WOOOOOOO HOOOOOO, of course, five times is not much of a sample period, BUT, the implications seem pretty positive.
Speaking of BULL SHIT, eeeeeerrrrrrrrrr, aaaaaahhhhhhhhh, BULLISHNESS, I watched James Altucher make his case on BubbleVision yesterday for DOW 20,000, in the next
12 TO 18 MONTHS!!!!
Now, first off, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.......................HAH!! What THAT means is, of course, you either BELIEVE, or you DON'T, I, OF COURSE, DON'T, but believe it or not, I've actually been WRONG before, and, again, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA................HAH!! meaning, of course, I've been wrong more than not.
I USED to like James (hidden inside that comment is the fact that it's probably the single most ACID, BITING comment I've ever made), but I don't like his shilling for BubbleVision, sigh, I guess he probably needs the money that much. To his credit though he lays out his ten reasons for this "forecast" all over the WackOshpere, this is in MarketWatch,
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/next-stop-dow-20000-2011-06-02.
I'm going to digress here for a second (like THAT'S new!), but he was being interviewed by BubbleVisions greatest acquisition, Brian Sullivan,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Sullivan_(news_anchor). I've followed Brian since he started on the ONLY "TRUE" business news channel, Bloomberg, as being a "former" commodities trader at a big firm he was always coming up with some interesting, little known market facts, and tended to challenge his guests with "Funnymental" facts about companies they were trying to pump, etc etc etc, it pissed me off to no end when he went to FBN, where they stifled him into only being able to shill what ever the FBN company line was, which was usually an advertisement for the FNC section. Anyway, Brian is MUCH more of an actual "EXPERT", than 99.99999% of those Udder things that BubbleVision advertises as their market "EXPERTS", it's just the damest thing that BubbleVision doesn't have a single REPORTER on their desk, just "MARKET EXPERTS", HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, yyeeeeeeaaaaa, rrriiiiggghttt, just like the two that broke out on their own a few years ago, and have come crawling back after finding out that trying to "play" the market with REAL money is just a little different than yakking about it on the tube, I won't mention their names, but their initials are HG and RI. Of course, I shouldn't pump Brian to much, because any time you start with the word "FORMER", as in "FORMER" trader, you usually mean "FAILED".
WAD EVER, sigh, I bring all that up because he started the interview with James off by saying that he agree's with almost ALL of his ten items, other than items number 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 and 10, hahahahahahhaha, or some thing close to that. Now, I'm not going to bother going through the items, as I'm less of a Market "Expert" than Michille Cabbberraa Maannnerra Contrraaarerra, or wad ever her name is, but I, aahhhh, errrrr, I'm aaahhhh, going to aaaahhhh, eeerrrrrrr, GGRRRRRR, oh hell, I will:
1) I consider this the dumbest of the entire bunch, and therefore it INVALIDATES the other NINE, BUT, and correct me if I'm wrong, isn't the QE's the FED merely buying back Treasury Bonds???? How does that equate to "FEDERAL STIMULUS"???? All they're doing is saving their precious banks, and didn't we actually have "FEDERAL STIMULUS", in the form of almost a TRRRIIILLLION dollars that the Democraps spent on more Whore Houses for ACORN????? And as for it taking 6 to 18 months for that "FEDERAL STIMULUS" to work through the economy, aren't we in the time frame that QE1 should have been working??? And didn't we get a 5 print on the GDP like the first quarter AFTER it started, and hasn't the GDP done nothing but go DOWN HILL since then????
2) It took Bushie TWO administrations to completely DESTROY the country I love so dearly, and now we're giving him a THIRD CHANCE????????????????
3) I have NO IDEA where he came up with this ridiculous extrapolation, I suppose he has exact and comprehensive NUMBER's that's he's done decades of research on to back it up with.
4 and 5) Read John Hussman, PERIOD! He has ACTUAL NUMBERS that show this is BS.
6) They have TEMP WORKER's just so they can lay them off IMMEDIATELY!!
7) Slap a "Traditional" MARKET BOTTOM multiple on that of 7, and I get an S and P at 700, hahahahahahahahaha!!! Again, read John Hussman.
8 and 9) This is where the Pixie in James is showing up, as he's obviously winking at you with one eye, I mean, come on Jimmie, we're supposed to compare MSFT, INTC and CSCO to APPLE???????!!!!!!!!!! DOUBLE OR TRIPLES????????!!!!!! I mean, SCREW the DOW, buy MSFT, INTC and CSCO NOW, BEFORE IT'S TO LATE, WHY PICK UP A LOUSY 66% BUYING THE DOW OR S AND P WHEN YOU CAN GET A TRIPLE IN THEM???!!!!!!! One things for sure, if they had dumped those three OUT of the DOW, and put AAPL in there, it would be trading at 20,000, RIGHT NOW!! For the life of me, I can't figure out what in the hell they were thinking about when they put CSCO in there instead of AAPL, truly one of the great mysteries of our time.
10) I'm in the Harry Dent camp on this one, a MAJOR demographic change is going to happen, but ONLY after the Government finishes up what they are trying to do, and that's kill off the BIGGEST generation in History as fast as they can, us Baby Boomers! I read a recent article where it said that 58% of us say we will never, NEVER, put our money in the markets AGAIN! NEVER, EVER!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....................HAH!! That is, we WON'T until we reach Jimmie's target of 20,000, AND THEN WE WILL BE PILING ALL IN, WOOOOOOO HOOOOOOO! Seriously, WE WILL!
Sigh, I agree with him about a demographic shift for the next 25 years, BUT, that shift is only going to happen AFTER Governments do what they do best, including our own, and that's when they can't solve their economic malaise they start waving the fricking flag, and send our little kids off to be butchered and chopped to pieces in WAR, I only fear the next one is going to be how we solve our Global over population problems as well, as they will probably try to get rid of about 3 Billion of us. They already tried to get rid of as many of us Boomer's as they could in NAM, but it didn't work YOU BASTARDS, WE STUCK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME A BIGGER PROBLEM, HAHAHAHAHAHA!
This is all in fun of course, as I actually like and respect James, he gets my Kudo's for sticking his neck out and putting his ass on the line, for with an 18 month time frame even I might be around to see if he's right, and he BETTER be right, cause if he's not he's going to end up working full time for BubbleVision with those udder two has beens.