5:00PM: The futures opened up just about exactly on the lows of Friday, I mean, hey, it probably could have been worse, for those of you that relate to the DOW, it's down about 240 points. It's interesting that they came back and took out Fridays lows by just a couple of ticks, hhhhmmmmmm. The Euro and Sterling actually opened much higher, some of the interest rates are higher by as much as 15 percent as bonds are lower, gold is up about 40 points. I really don't know, Asia opens in a while and Europe much later, it wouldn't surprise me to see us open up EVEN in the morning, OR, down 500 points.
Wad ever, I'm looking forward to tomorrow I Yam. Good luck to you.
Hahahahahahaha, unfrickingbelieveable, is Geithner a kick or what, Geithner Says European Nations Must Get 'Fiscal House' in Order, I, well, I just have no words to describe old Tax Cheatin Timmy.
ANYWAY, with that said, we stopped last week on a HUGE support level, that being the all important $120 on the SPY or 1200 on the regular $SPX, if you remember that was a HUGE number last year, as it was the April TOP just before the big pull back into July-August, so in essence we've taken out 16 months of market gains in basically the last two weeks, which is a, yep, that's what they do type of thing, we creepy crawl higher and then blast lower. You do TA type stuff to basically set up your risk parameters, which is how "Traders" view things, "Investors" just basically stick around no matter what, looking for LONG TERM gains, or, wad ever. My last, "Thing", has been that Head and Shoulders I was talking about, I wasted most of my time talking about how "THEY" have been taking them OUT, IE, they weren't working, well, sigh, this is why you LOOK at things like that, as it worked to the MAX, BUT, unfortunately, "THEY", took the whole thing out in a lousy WEEK! It would have been nice to kind of wallow around at the neck line, and set some thing up that would have given you kind of a chance to work into a short on it, but they didn't, and what's happened is the whole damn thing IS GONE!! KAPUT, OVERSVILLE, etc etc etc, they full filled ALL the parameters on it, which was the targets, that is the length of the Head down to the Neck line, and you subtract that from the Neck line to get your target.
On a technical basis this pull back into that $120 level would have been just about the best set up I've probably ever seen, that is, if it had been a PULL BACK, rather than what it did, now, at this point, if "THEY" decide to take us up, well, I'm not gonna like it much at all. If that happened the only thing I could see down the road would be to draw a trend line from the May high down through the July high, and maybe set up a short at that point should we go that way, which would probably be some where above the $130 level, quite a ways up there. The EASY set up, is LOWER, as that's the SHOULDA COULDA WOULDA set up, as in "IF" we break lower here, we, "SHOULD", go MUCH lower, for we get into an AIR POCKET, or VOID, where we don't have any support areas left over from the August blast off last year, I mean, we "SHOULD", go down to $100 like lickety split, which cracks me up, because that would take us back into the H and S set up from last year, that failed, which means, in THEORY, you could start talking about the original targets on THAT set up, which was 20 points, or about $80 on the SPY. I don't show it on the chart, but if we get to that $80 "area", I mean, that don't mean diddly fricking squat, because at that point we are in ANOTHER Air Pocket left over from the initial blast off out of the March 2009 lows, meaning we "SHOULD" go right back down to that low.
Wad ever, sigh, I can't conceive that this is going to happen, I'm just pointing out that it would be very easy for us to get to that point. If this is in the cards it's just going to be horrible, for me at least, as the stinking Government and Fed's are going to be pulling out all the stops, trying to SAVE us, meaning holding things over night could be extremely hazardous to your financial health, if your a "Trader" that is, and "things" meaning shorts. If your a dollar cost averager type of Investor, well, starting some thing like that now is probably much better than it would have been a couple of months ago, as markets ALWAYS go to new highs in the end, hell, if that Druggie that's been on CNBC lately is right, the DOW will hit 20,000 in the next year, hahahahaha, I notice lately he's been making a case for GOOG going to 2500 or some thing like that. Wad ever, the only thing I would say, is that if you are one of those types, Averager's that is, stay away from the "ULTRA" indexes, taking ANY of them, ESPECIALLY the triple Ultra's, and you risk not getting your money back, your much better off staying with the generic indexes like the SPY or Q's or wad ever you like.
I hate to bring up any thing that's possibly "good", but the A/D's are still, "all right", at least on the weekly time frame. They made new highs at the July high, even as the "markets" were NOT making a new high, so in THEORY, they are still a LEADING indicator, and even though the markets have pulled back to the April 2010 high, the A/D's are still way above that level. The only way this would turn negative at this point is for the markets to rally to new highs, or maybe even a double top, with the A/D's failing to confirm that move, if we did some thing like that, well, yea, that would be the Hallelujah short of a life time, wooo hooo. The only other way for them to turn negative involves us breaking down from here, like, we fall BELOW $120 on the SPY, like, a lot, then we rally back up to that $120, which would be the old adage of support, once broken, becomes resistance type of thingey, with the A/D's making a negative divergence against the price action, that would be another short of a life time type of thing.
