Stock pick for 10/07/2011

ivica@xpertstocktrader.com

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My MAIN market timer, http://long-short-timing.com/default.aspx, came out with a note last night. This is a, FREE, service, and you can sign up for the signals on the site link.

Now, I, LOVE, this outfit, he has ALL the stat's on his "SYSTEM" on the site, IE, the "returns", not the actual "SYSTEM" itself, as that's "secret", I've followed him pretty close for about a year now, and I can testify that the guy is FOR REAL!! I'm testifying because of course, there's so many pieces of shit on the WackOShpere that are just lying bastards, and are mainly just trying to get you to "BUY" their software, or wad ever, IE, they have an agenda, this guy does NOT, he's really for real.

ANYWAY, it just cracks me up, hahahahahahahaha!! He has a, "SYSTEM", and as with ANY, "SYSTEM", it gets these things called "DRAW DOWNS", IE, the trade goes against you, BUT, AS WITH ANY "SYSTEM", you have to stick to the signals, ALL THE SIGNALS, or, as they say, your returns may vary based upon the actual results of the "SYSTEM"!

Ok, what cracks me up, is the note is a "confidence" note, he's sent out several of these over the last year, and they almost ALWAYS come when the "markets" go against the call, IE, his customers PANIC! Now, he uses the Q's as his basic signal call, but you can use any of the various Indexes that he gives in his articles, he has been in a very rare "CASH" call for awhile, and he came out Sunday night with a new short call, to short the Q's at Friday's close, $52.49, on Monday's open, which is what they got. Ok, so by Tuesday morning the call is UP almost 5%, hahahaha, a, GREAT, call, but of course, as of last night, the call was DOWN about 3.8%, and the reason he came out with the note of course, is he must be getting a TON of emails from his followers, who are in a PANIC, hahahahaha!!

What happens, is there is a bunch of people that follow his calls, THAT BREAK THE "RULES", and use the "LEVERAGED" funds for their trading vehicle, like TZA, and if you used TZA, by Tuesday morning you were UP about 20.8%, and as of last night, you are now DOWN 17%, just slightly a little more "volatility" than by following the ACTUAL calls as laid out in the "SYSTEM"!

He has the same response to the panic every time, he refers them to the article on the LIMBIC SYSTEM, which is an explanation of the involuntary physical responses that we humans get when we get into panic mode, which is on his page that lays out the Investment "RULES", http://long-short-timing.com/InvestmentRules.aspx.

My main reason for bringing this up, besides cracking me up, is not so much that they are breaking the RULES, or warping the "SYSTEM", but my personal opinion is the bottom line reason they panic, is that they violate one of the most basic of rules, and get out of their "comfort zone", by over leveraging themselves, or not having, or even worse, ignoring, the basic principles of "position sizing". I know this, because it took me a while to figure out some of MY OWN problems, mainly about how to stay in a trade when it's going MY WAY, and not leaving to early. 

ANYWAY, that Q's chart looks almost EXACTLY like the SPY chart below, IE, despite all the BS coming out of Wall Street, they are basically ALL THE SAME MARKETS, and TECH is not any better "investment" than buying some outfit that makes NUTS!

The futures were down slightly ahead of the payroll report, and it came it much better than "expected", and the SPY jumped about $2, hahahahahaha, so those people must be REALLY panicking now!! As I mentioned below, my, PLAN, on a gap up, will be TO SHORT THE WORLD, WOOOOO HOOOOOO!!! This is based solely on the markets being up three days in a row, and then GAPPING higher into resistance, with my "investment" time frame, after the open, being measured in MINUTES, and should not be construed with any form of "investment" advice. 

Good luck to every one out there in La La Land. 

Sigh, pretty much my sentiments exactly: The US Empire, a Tragic Comedy in Three Acts

Was Ron Paul REALLY booed for saying we should bring the troops home, and act more like a civilized society?????

On the longer term, SHORTER TERM, time frame, the 60 minute chart, we are running into some over head resistance in the form of a down trend line, and the 200 SMA. On the "indicators", the STOCH is obviously over bought, the RSI has a little divergence on it the last few hours, as does the CCI at the bottom. "Indicators", don't mean diddly squat, BUT, I pay some attention to them.
The good part, for the bulls that is, is if we get over that trend line then we "probably" go right to the upper DOWN trend line, which is the HUGE $120 resistance "area". If we get through the current trend line I wouldn't say that was the Bear's last gasp, that will come at the main trend line above. If we don't gap above it tomorrow after the Payroll report, I'm probably going to take a short shot at this thing, In fact, if we get a HUGE gap higher, then I will DEFINITELY take a short shot at it.

The daily chart has a couple of interesting little items on it, at the bottom the MACD is TRYING to trigger a BUY signal with a positive cross over, more interesting is the HUGE positive divergence it's trying to put on, as compared to the August lows. It's probably more important for the MACD to cross above Zero, the Histogram is trying to do that right at the moment.
A negative is the RSI is trying to stop at the 50 level, again, it capped the three of the last four rallies, and the one time it got above it, it just barely got above it before it turned down again.Plus, we are coming back into the 50 DMA, again, which has also been acting as a cap to the rallies, we HAVE to get over that, before a sustained move will be made higher.
Good luck to you.

I love Gods' sense of humor, too 

A Smile From God!

Stock pick for 10/06/2011
ivica@xpertstocktrader.com
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Dear traders,
I found that many charts went strong to 1^st resistance area. It is daily 10sma or 15 min 200sma and after two days up on strong pace and with very possible gap up open I’m really caution to take any new short trade right now. I like INTU 15 min chart but I’m afraid that open action will eat most of upside room. Now what to do? After that strong bounce it is not easy to take swing short because bounce was to strong. But I will look for intraday setups over %gainers/losers list in hope that I will found bull trap or something like that on individual name what could lead us in trend day for that individual chart. I want to say that today activity will depends on intraday scanning. I think that is really too risky to bring any trading plan without seeing open action. Over email all updates will come. If anyone have any question why I think that is this best way for today open please let me know.
Wish you all great trading day.
Ivica Jurasic

Where Will This Rally End?
It is likely to run out of steam near the midpoint of the bearish flag. Get Sam Collins' take on the markets.

What Are the Chances of a Year-End Rally?
The S and P 500 is in a resistance area, but a close above 1,150 could give way to higher levels. Get Serge Berger's take.

SIGH! I'm in mourning today, I'll be taking the day off to contemplate things like is gravity real or does the World just suck!! I woke up to the white shit this morning, sigh again, this is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early in the year for this stuff, it's not that it bothers me that much right now, it's kind of cool to see the first snow, it's just that it depresses me to no end about what it may mean for the REAL winter! Since I "usually" don't nail the doors shut until after Thanksgiving, the thought of another two months of being locked in here is unbearable.

Good luck to you out there in La La Land today.  

Subj: The Good ole South???

 

A group of Alabama friends went deer hunting and paired off in twos for the day. That night, one of the hunters returned alone, staggering under the weight of an eight-point buck.

"Where's Henry?" the others asked.

"Henry had a stroke o' some kind. He's a couple of miles back up the trail," the successful hunter replied.

"You left Henry layin' out there and carried the deer back?" they inquired.

"A tough call," nodded the hunter. "But I figured no one's gonna steal Henry!"

The owner of a golf course in Georgia was confused about paying an invoice, so he decided to ask his secretary for some mathematical help. 

He called her into his office and said, "Y'all graduated from the University of Georgia and I need some help. If I wuz to give yew $20,000, minus 14%, how much would you take off?"

The secretary thought a moment, and then replied, "Everthang but my earrings."

A senior citizen in Louisiana was overheard saying ... "When the end of the world comes, I hope to be in Louisiana ."

When asked why, he replied, "I'd rather be in Louisiana 'cause everythang happens in Louisiana 20 years later than in the rest of the world."

The young man from Mississippi came running into the store and said to his buddy, "Bubba, somebody just stole your pickup truck from the parking lot!" 

Bubba replied, "Did y'all see who it was?"

The young man answered, "I couldn't tell, but I got the license number."

A man in North Carolina had a flat tire, pulled off on the side of the road, and proceeded to put a bouquet of flowers in front of the car and one behind it. Then he got back in the car to wait.

A passerby studied the scene as he drove by, and was so curious he turned around and went back. He asked the fellow what the problem was.

The man replied, "I got a flat tahr."

The passerby asked, "But what's with the flowers?"

The man responded, "When you break down they tell you to put flares in the front and flares in the back. I never did understand it neither."

A Tennessee State trooper pulled over a pickup on I-65. The trooper asked, "Got any ID?"

The driver replied, "Bout whut?"

The Sheriff in Texas pulled up next to the guy unloading garbage out of his pick-up into the ditch. The Sheriff asked, "Why are you dumping garbage in the ditch? Don't you see that sign right over your head."

"Yep," he replied. "That's why I'm dumpin' it here, 'cause it says: 'Fine For Dumping Garbage.' "

Y'all kin say whut y'all want 'about the South,

but y'all never heard o' nobody retirin' an' movin' North

Stock pick for 10/05/2011
ivica@xpertstocktrader.com
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Just few words.

Most charts have room for day two upside action. I don’t expect that selling is over but market need some relief (at least charts say so at this moment). On the other side 60 min charts are extended after big bounce yesterday and it will be best if we will see some 15 min rest before setup, but if that won’t happen my advice is to took those swings with less risk then normal. If we will see setup after doldrums time then normal risk. If anyone will have any questions feel free to contact me.

Wish you best trading g day

Ivica

Futures are flying this morning, DOW up about 80 points, as, WOOOOO HOOOOO, the world has solved all it's problems by taking on MORE DEBT, hahahahaha, the market do love it when we take on more and more debt, because it means we can make the interest payments on the PRIOR DEBT!
Anyway, nice turn around day, we basically cleaned out ALL stops that may have been set to the August lows, turned it around and gave them seller's remorse, and are making "them" chase it higher, nice volume day as well. I have a little position, but I won't REALLY get involved unless we can start taking out some of those prior highs, and HOLD THE GAINS, like, around the $120 "area".
One last thought, let's see, we rallied 4.8% off the bottom yesterday, and we are gapping higher this morning, hhhhhmmmmm, 4.8%, hhhhhmmmm, 4.8%, AND, we are gapping higher into the open, hhhhmmmm, oh what to do, what to do.....................hahahaha, yea, like I ain't gonna sell the shit out of this thing after the open, right, OR WRONG.... AFTER ALL,  IT'S THE PRINCIPLE DAMMIT!
Good luck to you. 


YEEEEAAAAAAAAAA!! Typical Wall Street bull shit, everyone CHEER's as one of the greatest ANAL-LIST FRAUDS of ALL TIME rings the opening bell, YEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAA.............
GREATEST FRAUD OF ALL TIME LEADS HIS COHORTS IN CHEERING THE OPEN

Subject: HEY, WHAT ARE FRIENDS FOR???

PHOTO OF TRAUTE

Futures are down pretty big, like that's a big surprise, DOW about 180 points, they set up a very cool descending triangle heading into the premarket open, and then dumped out of it. We are actually in the third day down in a row now, so we are into the 3-5 day DOWN "system", whereby you buy and then sell when we close higher than the previous two days, definitely not for the faint of heart during times like this. With the clean out of any stops that were hanging around that had them at the August lows, and the markets getting pretty over sold, I could "anticipate" we get a little short covering rally here, which is not a call to Bottom Fish any thing, just that a rally may provide a better short entry at higher levels. 

ANYWAY, John Hussman was RANTING in his weekly column yesterday, hahahahahahaha, http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111003.htm, GET'EM JOHN!!!!!! It's actually his typical EXCELLENT column, mostly about the ECRI recession call, and how you'd have to be stupid to listen to the Wall Street SHRILLS rather than a NON-AGENDA Institution like the ECRI, etc etc etc.

Anyway, he lays out a very explicit explanation that comes to the conclusion of WHY ISN'T ANY ONE FROM THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IN JAIL, ESPECIALLY HANKEY PANKEY PAULSON!! Well, you should probably throw the whole stinking 562 of the aholes behind bars, the entire bunch in DC, but he shows very clearly that the banks have MORE than enough capital to survive a "restructuring", that Paulson's EXTORTION of the 700 billion from the American tax payer was completely unnecessary, and that as long as Washington continues to use a "crisis" to privatize the gains and socialize the losses, we will NEVER get out of our on going malaise. Sigh, we could be SO MUCH further along right now, if there had only been a FEW honest people in DC, who did what was RIGHT, rather than enrich themselves. 

If the current market malaise really gets rolling, I have NO DOUBT, that, THEY, go right back to what they were doing before, and use it to EXTORT MORE ill gotten gains from us, until hopefully you wise up, AND THROW THE ENTIRE BUNCH OUT!!!

I'm watching some JUNK, JNK, I'm certainly NOT interested right now, I'm just keeping an eye on it for down the road. I mentioned this thing a lot a few years ago, it's a wonderful pairs play for CONSERVATIVE investors who like YIELD, you pair it up with TLT, JNK, and HYG for that matter, follow the regular equity markets around, almost nit for nat, and as such you can pair them, with your OWN ratio and R/R parameters, to get the 4% yield on the TLT, and the current 8.4% yield on JNK, which averages out to about 6.2%.
Now, JNK BOTTOMED with the markets in 09', on the same day in fact, and at that time it was yielding over 16%, what happens is that as we get into a recession, Junk bond investors finally start to wise up, and demand MUCH more yield for the added risks of default, it bottomed in 09' at about $26, so, in THEORY, if you took the current dividend rate, about $2.88, AND, JNK got back to $26, your yield would be ONLY about 11%, but what happens, is like I said above, the "investors" start to panic, and demand a greater yield to cover the added risks, so you have to wait on this thing.
It's just an idea of mine, just some thing to remind me to keep an eye on this thing. I'm only mentioning it because it seems to be picking up some steam to the down side, as it broke WAY below the August lows yesterday, ahead of the regular markets, currently this thing has ONLY lost about 13% since it's highs it made last November, as compared to the 20% on the SPY, so, HOPEFULLY, it will start playing some catch up.

 Some body in Cobra's room was calling this a "TRIPLE BOTTOM", hahahahaha, I, DON'T, THINK SO!! With the clean break of ALL the prior lows, then we, SHOULD, as in SHOULDA COULDA WOULDA, GO..................DOWN!!! But who knows, our, FRIENDS, in the Government and FED, will be doing EVERY THING they can to prevent a repeat of 08', sigh, wad ever.
Since we've made the break, the "EQUAL MOVE" targets are, IN PLAY! The most obvious is $98, you get that by taking the LAST high, in July, subtract it from the August low, and you come up with that number. You COULD, take the Obama Higher, eeeeerrrrr, excuse me, the Osama high, in May, which would move the target down to $96.
By the way, we dropped in the after hours close to $109, so, we are, OFFICIALLY, in a BEAR MARKET, as defined by a 20% loss off the Osama high, so what that means, if that Wall Street says all the retails can SELL NOW, SELL, IT'S SAFE TO SELL THIS THING NOW!!! And after you sell, you have to WAIT, until we get a 20% rally, BEFORE YOU CAN BUY AGAIN! Like I've said before, I STILL can't figure out where that 40% goes!
ANYWAY, I have a couple of problems with those numbers I gave for the targets:

We have big support from the July and August lows from last year, at $104 and $102, AND.....

We have HUGE support at the WHOLE number of $100, which comes from the lows of June from last year, the lows in October of 09', and a shelf in 08', soooooooo, we could struggle mightily to get to those numbers I mentioned at the top, BUT, the numbers are the numbers, that's what the target SHOULD be.
Wad ever, have I mentioned, I HATE BEAR MARKETS!!!

HMMMMMM, Sam and Serge seem to disagree on which direction the markets taking:
How to Play the Next Bear Market Rally
The market is oversold and due for a bounce. Get Sam Collins' take on the markets.
Don't Bet on Support Holding
Selling pressure will quickly take stocks lower when stops get triggered. Get Serge Berger's take.

SHEEEEEEEEET, I DO THIS ALL THE TIME ONE HANDED, WITH MY 12 GA. PUMP ACTION!!!


THE ULTIMATE, ENERGY SAVING, "GREEN", GARAGE DOOR OPENER!!!!

THE MOST HORRIFYING, BLOOD CURDLING, HAIR RAISING CHART EVER!!!!!!!

Ok, maybe I went just a little, aaaahhh, overboard there with the descriptive words, but personally, I find this one of the most amazing charts I've ever seen. One amazing thing is that I find that NO ONE EVER TALKS ABOUT IT! I mean, here we are, the SPY has barely a BLIP on it as far as the recent down turn, and yet BONDS, in the form of the TLT, HAVE HIT ALL TIME HIGHS! In the red circle over on the left side, in 2008, after the SPY had already had a CATACLYSMIC drop of 50%, people, FINALLY, decided that, HEY, MAYBE WE SHOULD PANIC, and they finally started piling into the "safety" of bonds.

I mean, SIGH, I'll admit right off that I completely MISSED this thing, I got into my price anchoring bull shit and just REFUSED to buy them. Another reason of course, is that I'm not buying this NEGATIVE YIELD bull shit, I'LL WAIT UNTIL THE GREATEST BULL MARKET IN HISTORY IN BONDS STARTED, WHEN YIELDS HIT 18%!!!!!!!!!

Hahahahahaha, well, I think I just did a pretty good job of showing you why I'm just about the WORST "Investor", EVER, and I generally have a maximum "investing" horizon of about, aaaahhhh, FIVE MINUTES! Sigh, my stinking  pigheadedness just kills me some times. 

Wad ever, my personal problems don't take away from the fact that BOND investors, who are considered the SMART ones compared to those dumb ass EQUITY gamblers, are pricing in the APOCALYPSE! SOME DAY, TBT is going to be the investment opportunity of a LIFE TIME, that is, if it survives in it's current form. How ever, even John Hussman doesn't think that's going to happen until toward the end of this decade. 

Ya Know, I've always liked Bob Prechter and the EWI boys, you just have to know how to interpret what they are saying some times, like, you can't confuse Bob's MACRO outlook on markets, in which he has a time frame of like, DECADES, with their very short term EWI forecasts, which, by the way, are, GENERALLY, pretty good.
How ever, once in a while I get stuff from them that I just have to say Bob, Bob, Bob, hahahahaha! The, CONCEPT, they are trying to convey, is that the Markets follow Presidential approval ratings, ok, I'll swallow that, but they shouldn't have included the charts, hahahahaha, like, if that's the case, then, WHY IN THE HELL DID THE MARKETS GO TO DA STINKING MOON WHEN THEIR "APPROVAL" RATINGS WERE GOING DOWN??????????????
Wad ever, and as always, "Invest", at your own risk.

This, of course, begs the age old question of do you "invest" in the WORST performing assets in the LAST quarter, or the BEST performing ones??
Read more: The Ten Worst Performing "SECTORS" Last Quarter

The answer of course, is based on your "risk" profile, but numerous studies have shown that "investing" in the WORST performing classes outperformed "investing" in the BEST performing ones, but, naturally, that's neither here nor there, every quarter is different. 

The single most important thing of course, is why would you read an article that the link above takes you to, WHEN THEY DON'T KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A, "SECTOR", AND AN "INDUSTRY"????? Hahahahahaha, I kind of thought they were in a little trouble, when I read the title, and thought, GEE, since there's only like, 10 "SECTORS" to begin with, that means EVERY THING GOT CRUSHED!!! Wad ever, it's a nice summary.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! SHADES OF 1968!!
"I Work My Ass Off All Day, And these Goddamned Hippies Close Down The Brooklyn Bridge So I Can't Get Home? That Ain't Right!"

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-obama-cnbc-2011-9#ixzz1ZdI37VDD


EXCELLENT, weekend wrap from Cobra, AS ALWAYS, http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2011/10/09302011-market-outlook-nysi-weekly-sto.html
LOTS, of interesting "Stat's", one interesting one I notice is the Bespoke chart of what happens after a quarter has a decline of 10% or more, if you notice (and I'm SURE you DO), EVERY ONE that ended in September, had a POSITIVE fourth quarter, EVERY ONE, some of the returns were quite LARGE! HOWEVER (hahahaha, there it is, the "disclaimer"), the thing that "might" over ride this positive bent, is the poor returns that came when the Indexes were DOWN for the year heading into the next quarter. 
On a personal basis, I'm scared to death of the next earnings season, it gets started with AA on October 11th. I mean, take those Stat's that Cobra shows, and then add into it, how many times have we had a piss poor quarter like that, and heading into the next quarter, the Pollyanna ANAL-LIST on Wall Street were projecting MORE RECORD EARNINGS FOR THE NEXT YEAR! I mean, Woooooo Weeeeee, any sign of weaker than "EXPECTED" earnings, or even more important, the LOWERING OF GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT YEAR, and these markets are going to crash faster than Obama can add a new tax to people that make LESS than $250K a Year!!!!!!

I give you the, EPITOME, of the "Best Six Months Of The Year" trading "Strategy", that period being November to May, in this case it was November of 05' into May of 06'. 
There, I can be as much of a Pollyanna bull shiter as any of those Wall Street ANAL-LIST!

Subject: Very Sad



A little history most people don't know.

Interesting Veterans Statistics off the VietnamMemorial Wall

"Carved on these walls is the story of America , of a continuing quest to preserve both Democracy and decency, and to protect a national treasure that we call the American dream." ~President George Bush


SOMETHING to think about - Most of the surviving Parents are now Deceased.

There are 58,267 names now listed on that polished black wall, including those added in 2010.

The names are arranged in the order in which they were taken from us by date and within each date the names are alphabetized. It is hard to believe it is 36 years since the last casualties.
Beginning at the apex on panel 1E and going out to the end of the East wall, appearing to recede into the earth (numbered 70E - May 25, 1968), then resuming at the end of the West wall, as the wall emerges from the earth (numbered 70W - continuing May 25, 1968) and ending with a date in 1975. Thus the war's beginning and end meet. The war is complete, coming full circle, yet broken by the earth that bounds the angle's open side and contained within the earth itself.

The first known casualty was Richard B. Fitzgibbon, of North Weymouth , Mass. Listed by the U.S. Department of Defense as having been killed on June 8, 1956. His name is listed on the Wall with that of his son, Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Richard B. Fitzgibbon III, who was killed on Sept. 7, 1965.

· There are three sets of fathers and sons on the Wall.

· 39,996 on the Wall were just 22 or younger.

· 8,283 were just 19 years old.

The largest age group, 33,103 were 18 years old.

· 12 soldiers on the Wall were 17 years old.

· 5 soldiers on the Wall were 16 years old.

· One soldier, PFC Dan Bullock was 15 years old.

· 997 soldiers were killed on their first day in Vietnam .

· 1,448 soldiers were killed on their last day in Vietnam .

· 31 sets of brothers are on the Wall.

· Thirty one sets of parents lost two of their sons.

· 54 soldiers on attended Thomas Edison High School in Philadelphia . I wonder why so many from one school.

· 8 Women are on the Wall. Nursing the wounded.

· 244 soldiers were awarded the Medal of Honor during the Vietnam War; 153 of them are on the Wall.

· Beallsville, Ohio with a population of 475 lost 6 of her sons.

· West Virginia had the highest casualty rate per capita in the nation. There are 711 West Virginians on the Wall.

· The Marines of Morenci - They led some of the scrappiest high school football and basketball teams that the little Arizona copper town ofMorenci (pop. 5,058) had ever known and cheered. They enjoyed roaring beer busts. In quieter moments, they rode horses along the Coronado Trail, stalked deer in the Apache National Forest . And in the patriotic camaraderie typical of Morenci's mining families, the nine graduates of Morenci High enlisted as a group in the Marine Corps. Their service began on Independence Day, 1966. Only 3 returned home.

· The Buddies of Midvale - LeRoy Tafoya, JimmyMartinez, Tom Gonzales were all boyhood friends and lived on three consecutive streets in Midvale, Utah on Fifth, Sixth and Seventh avenues. They lived only a few yards apart. They played ball at the adjacent sandlot ball field. And they all went to Vietnam . In a span of 16 dark days in late 1967, all three would be killed. LeRoy was killed on Wednesday, Nov. 22, the fourth anniversary of John F. Kennedyâ¤Ts assassination. Jimmy died less than 24 hours later on Thanksgiving Day. Tom was shot dead assaulting the enemy on Dec. 7, Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day.

· The most casualty deaths for a single day was on January 31, 1968 ~ 245 deaths.

· The most casualty deaths for a single month was May 1968 - 2,415 casualties were incurred.

For most Americans who read this they will only see the numbers that the Vietnam War created. To those of us who survived the war, and to the families of those who did not, we see the faces, we feel the pain that these numbers created. We are, until we too pass away, haunted with these numbers, because they were our friends, fathers, husbands, wives, sons and daughters. There are no noble wars, just noble warriors.

AAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!

Old Man Winter's comin down the mountain here he comes!!

Old Man Winter's comin down the mountain here he comes!!

He'll be ridin six white ski slopes, He'll be ridin six white ski slopes, He'll be ridin six white ski slopes yes he will!!

Please excuse my rendition of the old song, hahahahaha, sigh, but the FROST LINE is a comin DOWN, you can just see them as yellow areas, toward the top of the highest hills, when you click on the picture. I had to put the picture underneath this, in order to get it to open up, I have NO IDEA why. 

I took this from where I do my walk once in a while, to the Microwave tower, I'm on the FIRST foothills, the Frost line is on the THIRD set of foothills, with one set in between us, that Frost line is at about 8,000 feet, and in back of that is the REAL mountain range, with Delano Peak topping it off at 12,174 ft. 

It's been pretty warm, as we usually get out first freeze in September, which we haven't gotten yet, BUT, the weather report is saying that will all end on Thursday, just wonderful, it is. 

When I make a 180, IE, turn around, this is the view of the valley with part of the town. 

This is from the Valley floor, looking back up at where I was, the microwave tower is obviously the white colored thing, and when you click on the picture, I drew an arrow to Delano Peak, which is just sticking it's head up in the distance. The picture is kind of warped because of the angle I guess, the microwave tower is actually quite a bit higher than the foothills just to the right of it. 

And THEN, when I make a 180, IE, turn around, this is our new million dollar baseball and soccer complex, and over on the right side is the new 16 stinking million dollar elementary school!!!!!!!!!! Sigh, I'm tellin ya, these farmer's here are fricking LOADED!! WHICH IS WHAT MY TAX BILL IS GOING TO BE NEXT YEAR!!

Sooooooooooo, I'm sitting here this morning watching this two hour video that was sent to me by one of my many trading friends, about this new "Super Secret" trading "system", and since I've managed to crawl back up off the floor and compose myself, I'd thought I'd say some thing about it. I can't reveal what it's about of course, as I NEVER violate my sacred vows with my friends, but this literally floored me, hahahahaha.

So, the first hour and a half the person talks about themselves, how they arrived at the "system", his past failures and success's, and some where in there he took five minutes to explain the four rules of the "system", I mean, basically, that's all it is, extremely simple, and extremely effective, I think he was currently working on 42 winning trades in a row. Ok, so, during that hour and a half, I think he mentions, AT LEAST, two dozen times, how you, "NEVER NEVER, EVER, EVER, VIOLATE ANY OF THE RULES"!!!

Ok, you got that??? Sooooooo, the last half hour they go to an actual trading session, they set up the charts, show the set up they are looking for, explain it in great detail, it takes some time as the audience is asking a LOT of questions, stuff like that, so he gets ready to make the trade, I'm holding my breath, and some one says, well, wait a minute, didn't this little squiggle over here violate like, rule number two, or some thing like that, and I swear to god, he says, "well, yes, but the trade is still valid, because in this case, WE GO TO PLAN B"............................................................................................

You know, if you DIDN'T fall out of your chair, you obviously haven't been doing this long enough. 

OK, soooooo, back to the real world, MY WORK HERE IS DONE!! With the recession call by the ECRI last week, I guess that completely validates the recession call I made last Spring. The call was not made on the oil spike that started in February, thanks to the idiotic policies of Bennie Da Pumper, but more on the gasoline spike, as gas directly affects the consumer, IMMEDIATELY, whereas the oil thingey can take months to work through the "system". Speaking of $GASO, it, OFFICIALLY, has fallen from $3.40 or so at the May high, to currently $2.54, BUT, OUR service station, is, STILL, sitting at $3.70, it hasn't moved one bit since last spring, which is unusual as we "generally" drop after labor day, which doesn't bode well for the future, as we continue to get the drag it will have on the economy, for as so goes Beaver, so goes the rest of the country. In case you think this one horse town is an out-lier, we went to $1.55 just like the rest of the country in the depths of hell in 09'. 

Ok, so moving on, I consider it pretty unusual that the ECRI is calling the recession BEFORE it happens, hahahahahahaha, TRADITIONALLY, they wait until we get the two quarters of NEGATIVE GDP growth that signals we are in a recession, before they make the call, and since we just got the latest LIE from the Government, eeeeeeerrrrrr, excuse me, that was a REPORT, obviously NOT a LIE, that said the last quarter, being Q2, was POSITIVE, it means the ECRI thinks that the quarter that just ended Friday, Q3, is NEGATIVE, and the fourth Quarter will be negative as well, so I guess in reality, we haven't even gotten into it yet. 

Soooooooo, with my mandate of "MY WORK HERE IS DONE", completed, what next?? Weeeeeeell, I, GUESS, I'll have to start doing, POSITIVE STUFF, which brings immediately to my throat, a huge YUCKO, hahahahahaha! What I mean is, I guess I should start looking for when the END may be coming, the end of the recession and new Bull market in stocks........................... but, WAIT, the MSM, HAS ALREADY DONE THAT FOR ME, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

The MSM in this case is some outfit called the Wall Street Journal, and they've made the call here already, THE WORST IS BEHIND US................ HAHAHAHAHA, oh god I love those guys! Ok, so I changed the title a little, big deal, in keeping with their mandate, imposed upon them by the people that employ them, DA BOYZ ON DA STREET, they are doing every thing they can to SELL, Mom and Pop, on the idea that the WORST is over, as they state:

"Is it possible that swoon (in August, sic) marked the moment the S & P priced in a recession, meaning that the worst is over?"

And, "a recession doesn’t necessarily have to mean a bear market in stocks."

Ok, so I cherry picked some of the sentences, BIG DEAL, the general idea is there, BUT WAIT, they gave us a table from SentimenTrader to back up some of their findings:

Ya Know, WHY, do they use "MEDIAN", and WHY, do they include the latest drop, WHEN THERE WAS NO RECESSION????? Welp, MAYBE, because if you use the other TEN, REAL, periods, and use an AVERAGE, the average drop is 29.08 percent, BUT, we don't want to tell Mom and Pop THAT........... DO WE!!!!!

I added this in later, but here's ANOTHER of the MSM spewing out DENIALS already:

U.S. in Another Recession? Not So Fast- The Atlantic

Hahahahaha, ok, look, I'm just having some fun there, I wouldn't do this stoopid blog if I couldn't have some stinking fun, give me a fricking break! PERSONALLY, I couldn't even REMOTELY tell you what the "markets" are going to do, now that this information is public, but what I CAN do, is SHOW you what the markets did during the last two recessions:

The markets were already in a Bear market before we even got to the recession in 2001, in the red box in the top chart, and then we didn't bottom until almost a year AFTER the recession ended. Then we get almost the complete OPPOSITE, as we just came off of ALL TIME HIGHS in the markets in 2007 when that recession started, and then bottomed several months BEFORE the official end of the recession, so, take your pick, I have no idea. Those boxes for the recessions are approximate, as I got the general area off of the charts at that wonderful site, Dshort, http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php. I CAN tell you the difference between the two BOTTOMS, in the first one at the top, the SECOND BUSH got us into the SECOND BUSHIE WAR in barely a decade, in March of 03', and you know how much the markets LOVE WAR, hahahahahaha, kill and maim as many of those farmer's in Beaver as you can, WOOOOO HOOOOO! I've mentioned this before, but do you know that Beaver was featured on CBS 60 minutes, as our town lost the highest PERCENT of our population, in the entire Country, to the two Bush Wars???!!!!

Ok, so we all know that War is a LEGIT idea to pull us out of a recession, which it just so happens that is the single most POPULAR way of doing it among the politicians of the World, but the reason for the bottom in 09' is the reason I think that THIS TIME is TRULY, DIFFERENT, it came when our maaaaaaaavelous CONGRESS, on April 2, 2009, forced FASB to suspend Rule 157, and allow all the stinking Banks to take all the BAD SHIT off balance sheet, and LIE about their earnings for the rest of my miserable life!!!!

This ruling, coming out of the single most immoral bunch of bastards in the Country, who just happen to be the RICHEST people in the Country, that being those 562 idiots that reside on Capital Hill in Washington, DC, basically told EVERY man, woman and child in the Country, IT'S OK TO BE A LIAR AND A THIEF!!

And in that very vein, I have, NO DOUBT, that their NEXT move, will be to tell the FASB to suspend Rule 157 for EVERY ONE OF THEIR CORPORATE PARTNERS ON WALL STREET, SO THEY TO CAN LIE ABOUT THEIR BALANCE SHEETS AND EARNINGS FOR THE REST OF MY MISERABLE LIFE!!!!!!!

Sigh, they will probably also BAN every short ETF, BAN shorting, IN FACT, they will probably BAN SELLING, in ANY FORM, and you will only be allowed to BUY BUY BUY BUY!!!

Oh, yea, I was so busy wiping my puke up, I forgot about the chart at the top, have you heard of the MENDOZA LINE??!!! I'll give you one guess where it is, AND THE FIRST TWO DON'T COUNT!!

As if I give a rat's ass, the $NYAD's don't look HALF bad, I mean, for the drop we had the last few days, the A/D's don't seem to be reflecting the same DEGREE of drop as to what the markets had, but, that's a big WAD EVER, that could all change in an instant. 

I haven't brought this up in quite a while, frankly, because the "system" stopped working in 08', IE, it no longer mattered whether it was saying I'M OVER SOLD, but that's the percentage of stocks above or BELOW their 200 DMA. It, USED, to be, that if we got under 20% that was a pretty OVER SOLD reading, and indicating a bounce was coming, in fact, one of my main men, SYSIN, gave me the complete stat's on it when we did that, it actually don't happen to often. This was one indicator that actually did give a POSITIVE divergence at the 09' market bottom, so it DID work in that respect. Of course, it's actually doing a NEGATIVE divergence right now, as it has broken through the August lows, while the, "markets", have NOT, eeeeerrrrrr, YET! That probably can't be to good.

Speaking of my MAIN MEN, thanks to Boyd for reminding me of another prediction I made, that came to fruition,  that being THAT YOU CAN'T TRUST THOSE LYING COMMIE BASTARDS!!!! Hahahahahaha, he was talking about the, aaaaaaaahhhhhhhh, revelations, about the earnings of some of the Chinese stocks last week, like, Ya Know, if you were one of the, aaahhhhh, eeeerrrrr, "INWESTORS", who suckered into believing every thing you heard coming out of that country, well, as that famous guy said, STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES!!

I will say, I was a little surprised at BIDU, but, well, I guess it actually DOESN'T surprise me, wad ever. 

Stock pick for 10/03/2011

Ivica at Xpertstocktrader.com

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