Monday, January 16, 2012

Asia and the Aussie's were down pretty big today, with Europe basically flat as the DAX was the only one higher, our futures were down again this morning after being down last night. 
The, "Markets", look "all right" to me, I mean, Yea, the "indicators" are over bought on a short term basis, and we are struggling to break out over the October highs, the DIA is the only major to do so, so far, I could probably make a case of a "failed" break out on the SPY, even though the ascending triangle is still in place, as we took out the $129.42 October high twice last week, but failed to hold it on Friday, leaving a possible Abandoned Baby, or Island reversal, on Friday, the IWM is also acting weird as we got to $76.92 on Thursday, just short of the $76.97 October high, before the Friday drop.. The troubling item on that chart is the HUGE divergence in the MFI between the October high and now, it appears NOBODY is buying this rising market, although that could change in an instant should "Da Boyz" and their Brethren the Hedge funds decide to make the retails chase it higher, before trapping them. 
One item that's interesting is the table of "Stocks Above" the various moving averages, under the chart, the short term MA's are getting into over bought territory, although they don't really start to flash warning signs until they get into the 80-90% area, but the stocks above the 200 MA still has a LOOOOOOONG way to go before they get over bought. I suppose you could also look at this in a bad way as well, as it could be a NEGATIVE divergence, as who ever is moving us HIGHER is just using a few of the MEGA cap's to do it with, as the Major Indexes are generally "weighted", so they can give the illusion of moving higher even though a majority of the stock's are actually NOT moving higher. 
Wad ever, we start getting deeper into earnings season this week, Schaeffer's, http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/,  had some interesting stat's in their Monday Morning Outlook, as the Holiday SHORTENED MLK week has been REALLY NEGATIVE the last decade, plus it's an OPEX week, so we "may" pull back, which would probably be good as we would work off some of the over bought items. 

GOOD STUFF:
The MAIN men, the $NYAD's, have powered above all the highs of the past year, and if they are a "leading" indicator, they, "INDICATE", higher prices ahead for the Indexes. 

The McClellan, $NYMO, has been on a buy signal since late December, which is GOOD, but it would be nice if it would take out the November highs.

WEIRD STUFF:

The Index only Put/Call, the $CPCI, just collapsed on Friday, while the smartest people in the room, the OEX Option players, are continuing to pile into puts at a rate approaching the market highs of last April. Personally, I tend to lean toward the smart guys, although in that article from Schaeffer's they tried to make a case that this is actually GOOD, as it means the Big Boys, IE Da Boyz, are hedging their LONG positions, hahahahahahaha..............HAH! All you have to do is look at that bottom chart, and tell me that the OEX players DON'T buy puts as the market goes HIGHER, and SELL them as the market goes DOWN, come on, tell me they DON'T do that!!!!!!!

Somebody will have to explain to me, that with all the LOOOOOOOVE being shown the "Markets", BONDS are actually up MORE than the, quote, "MARKETS", since the start of the year!!! Come on, I'm waiting, some body clear my mind up about that!!!


The Baltic Dry Index is absolutely CRASHING!! This, of course, has to be because of the WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Those Pollyana Bull's will immediately say, well, that's because of the over supply of ships in the container Shippers, well, then, with the WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM, I have to ask myself, WHY AREN'T THEY ORDERING EVEN MORE SHIPS????????!!!!!!!!!
Wad ever, good luck to you out there in La La Land this week, really, I sincerely mean that. 


Speaking of the shippers (I was, wasn't I???), two of my wild little things, GNK and DSX, have actually held up during the recent collapse of the $BDI, GNK more so than DSX. 
I'm kind of "interested", but not THAT interested. What would get me more interested, on a very short term basis, would be to see a FLUSH out, where the whole bunch gets some really bad news, and they take out the August lows with some HUGE volume, I might start sitting up in my chair at that point. On a longer term basis, the way these things become the buying opportunity of a LIFE TIME, is they do a long basing pattern, over a couple of years or some thing like that, and maybe set up a long saucer type of bottom, as they frustrate "investors" to no end. These things don't have a nice dividend like NMM does, 10% I believe, so it's not worth their time to hold them while they "WAIT", so they may stay with NMM, BUT, NMM kind of scares me, as their dividend rate is MORE than what their EPS is projected to be, which means it's unsustainable as far as I can tell, which means they may have to reduce it if the current WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM continues, which would result in a disastrous collapse of the stock price. 

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