But this morning may be different, we are gapping down below the main trend line that has been in place since the start of the year, so that's the first major break down, we are currently BELOW the lows of last week, and the week before, effectively taking out the last two weeks, so we could have support for the "dip" buyers after the open, BUTT, if NOT, we have an Air Pocket, or VOID, waiting under us, in the green box, that could provide NO support down to the first gap fill at $129. If we are simply going to have the typical two wave "corrective" wave set up, we would get a measured, or "Equal Move", which targets about $129.75, but I hardly think we go down there without just completing the gap fill at $129. The next gap fill after that is the close of last year, but, of course, we aren't allowed to talk about stuff like that, I could be labeled a terrorist, hahahahahahaha!!
Wad ever, good luck to you out in La La Land this week.
Stock pick for 01/30/2012
Sign Up for Ivica's Trading Signals Here:
Being a shipping stock lover, AT TIMES, I find it interesting that GNK and DSX are NOT crashing with it, they are at low levels, yea, they are, but they haven't been dumping with the Index.
The total number of stocks above their 200 DMA is interesting for a couple of reasons, number one is that even though the shorter term MA's, like the 20 and 50 DMA's, are in over bought territory, and possibly signaling a short term pull back (like, we'll ever get a pull back again in my life time, hahahaha.......HAH!), the 200 DMA is a LOOOOOOONG way from being over bought, and leaves a lot of room for the "markets" to move higher, should the powers that be decide to take us there.
The other item, that's obvious to me, is that this thing works best with divergences at the HIGHS, as shown by the HUGE divergence we got at the all time highs in October of 2007', and again with the short term highs we got in both 2010 and 2011, so IMHO, this thing will only be worth following if, or WHEN, we start going after the highs of last year in the "markets". And also, as with any divergence in an "indicator", we have to get a new high, then a PULL BACK, and then a NEW HIGH, before I will start sitting up in my chair, for example the SPY double tops last years highs, then get's that weird thing call a PULL BACK, then goes back up and makes a slight NEW HIGH, while the 200 DMA's are going in the opposite direction, that would definitely, NOT, be a good thing.
Right now we are not CLOSE to that type of situation.
One note on the Weekly Outlook article from Schaeffer's, on page two I get the impression that Rocky White is trying to make a case for BUYING right now, BECAUSE, the DOW is UP in January, and THUS, we will be HIGHER in February......................HAH! Hysterically, eeeeerrrrrr, aaahhhhh, HISTORICALLY, February is one of, if not THE, WORST, month of the year for stock market returns, and when you look at his own tables, when January is higher February averages a FAAAAAANTAASTIC .57% return, and when the DOW has been up 3.5% or more, like it is now, it actually DROPS to .26%, I mean................ hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.................HAH!
PERSONALLY, I, HARDLY, think that the prospect of going ALL IN, in order to, POSSIBLY, get a .26% return next month, is worth the RISK, but, HEY, THAT'S JUST ME!!!
I think I'd rather wait, and, HOPE, for a pull back into Mid March (HAH! GOOD LUCK WITH THAT ONE!!!), when Da Boyz start their next asinine pump into the April earnings season, as hope always springs eternal for those Pollyanna Bulls. On a little side note, I personally like both of Ivica's ideas on those charts at the top.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment