Wednesday, January 25, 2012
The top two charts are from Bespoke yesterday, about the continuing declines in the earnings, "Beats", Weak Earnings, and I doodled some lines on the SPY chart at the bottom, just to show how how, as Crudlow says, "Earnings are the Mother's milk of stock market returns", as in, NOT!
The colored lines on the top two charts are supposed to, basically, line up with the time frames of the same color on the SPY chart. As I suspected, FUNNYMENTALS, don't mean a DAMN THING when it comes to returns in the, quote, "MARKETS"! Ok, so that's a little, aaaaaaahhhhhhh, debatable, but let's see, hhhhmmmmmmm:
From Q4 of 2000 to Q4 of 2003, companies were absolutely BLOWING the fricking top line and bottom line away, beating "estimates" like crazy, and what that gave us was the first part of the secular BEAR market, at the first green line on the left side.
From Q4 of 03' into Q3 of 05', the beats on earnings were basically flat with the beats in Q4 of 03', at the orange line, the market went higher, and then at the purple line, the beats took a dramatic drop into Q4 of 07', and all the market did, was go to ALL TIME HIGHS!!!! Also, from that same Q4 of 03', revenues dropped almost the entire time, other than a slight increase in the last quarter of 07'.
At the next black and then a green line, it actually made some sense, as earnings and especially revenue beats dropped, with the markets, from that 07' top into Q4 of 08', and then at the green line they blasted higher out of that 08' bottom into Q4 of 09'.
Soooooooooooooo, here we sit, with both revenues and earning beats continuing to drop from that Q4 09' top, while the markets have continued to go higher, I mean, hhhhhhhmmmmmm, I'm probably WRONG, as I usually am, but it sure looks similar to the orange and purple lines into the 07' top, when the markets were going higher, ignoring the weaker earnings and revenue beats.
Sigh, wad ever, the only good part about this, is that some where down the road, we shall see, what we shall see.
I'm certainly NOT going to "bet" on it, but with the blow our AAPL earnings last night, and 10% jump in the after hours, and a "traditional" higher open on FOMC days, I'm wondering if this might not be a suck'em in temporary top of some sort, much like the Osama gap of last spring. .
Posted by Cucca at 12:54 AM
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