Sunday, November 11, 2012

Monday trade idea
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Wish you all great trading day!
Ivica Juracic

Here's some Cup and Handle "Ideas" that I like, just pure speculation of course, we need the market to cooperate of course, but the patterns seem to be there. 

Pristine "Black Room" open house, November 14,15,16th, 

Stan Weinstein on Financial Sense Newshour, financial-sense-newshour, his interview starts at about 17:30 into the report, his methods at about the 23 minute mark, for a look at how his various "Stages" look on a chart you can check out Weinstein Stage Analysis, for complete charts simply keep following the posts of "Isatrader" on the forum. 

Here's the weekly performance of some of the Index's and sectors I keep track of, as you would expect the VIX was the beeeeeeeeg Wiener for the week, kind of a surprise that Utilities were the WORST performer for the week, as the TLT was the fourth best performer, meaning interest rates went DOWN, which is supposed to be GOOD, for Utilities, sigh, wad ever, such are "markets". Another puzzler is the Aussies, the EWA, was the best performing Country for the week, while China was the fourth WORST performer for the week, the FXI, I, THOUGHT, that the Aussie performance was tied to CHINA! ALSO, the DBC was the sixth best performer, while OIL was DOWN 2.3%, just weird stuff MAAAAAAAANNNN!

These are weekly charts of some of the best performers, the EWA looks close to a BREAK OUT, while both the DBC and SLV have had nice weekly pull backs and then put on a nice green bar, setting up your VERY clear R/R, as your stop would be under last weeks low, with your target at the recent highs.

Here's some weekly charts of the WORST performers, both the FXI and XLF have a MILE to go before they hit some type of weekly support, the FXI at $32 or 12% lower, the XLF just above $13 or about 15% lower. That Q's chart looks very Air Pockety, doesn't it?? Not much over to the left to act as support until it hits, HUGE, support, at $60.
The EWZ is far and away my absolute favorite, it obviously has HUGE support at $50, if it gets there, and if I had any balls, and with the Olympics coming up in four years, I would go ALL IN on that thing....................... ACCEPT, for one little, aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh, item:

IF, it doesn't HOLD $50, WOOOOOO WEEEEEEEE, Sadie Bar the Fricking Door, as not only does an "EQUAL MOVE" scenario work out to the 09' lows in the $25-$30 "area", BUTT, under $50 and it gets into a HUGE AIR POCKET that provides NO support until that "area", very, VERWY dangerous stuff it is if it lose's that $50 level. What I'm saying is, I, PROBABLY, wouldn't be sticking around to long if it lose's it.

As a member of Club EWI, there's a good chance you've followed this week's financial news and seen headlines like this one: 
"Stock markets tumbled following Obama election"
Mind you, that's just one headline -- countless others like it have published since Election Day.

Please understand: we have no interest in discussing the election results.

That said: we do wish to raise two questions about the headline above:
1) What about the stock market's strong gains from early 2009 through mid-year 2012?

2) Wasn't the person who has been re-elected now in the White House then?
You see the problem. So, as everyone plays "connect the dots" from the election to the stock market, does anyone ask if that's wise -- or even logical?

Alas, even those investors who saw through this conspicuously illogical notion might buy into a different market myth.

For example: The notion that "individual investors sat this rally out" is among today's most egregious inaccuracies. Because in truth, the evidence said otherwise nearly two years ago. As early as December 2010, a weekly survey of individual investors showed 63.3% bulls. This exceeded the highest levels of 2007, when the Dow Industrials reached their all-time high.

In turn, look closely at participation through the recent price highs in 2012. The evidence grows more telling still when you see who else has turned bullish.

Surveys and polls of options traders, advisors and newsletter writers recently registered as high as70% bulls. (Likewise surpassing the highest readings of these groups near the 2007 peak.)

In other words: Individuals and financial professionals alike are more "in" now than they were at the all-time highs.

What to conclude from the data? Well, it's no stretch to say that everyone who's going to get in has apparently done so already. This speaks loudly and clearly indeed to the long-term trend.

If all this comes as news to you, then please allow us to suggest that it would be wise to add a truly independent voice to the sources you rely on.

That's what Club EWI offers: a source of independent thinking and ideas about the financial markets.

And as a member, you have an especially inviting reason to visit Club EWI right now: a free two-week long event hosted by the editors of the Financial Forecast Service


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