Sunday, November 25, 2012

I was a little surprised at the $NYSI, which I use for market timing in conjunction with the $NYMO, I REALLY thought it would be on a buy signal, that's a cross of the 10 SMA. It's not a perfect "indicator", just as NONE of them are, but the damn thing works! It catch's the BIG trends, BUTT, as all of them, you do get whip saws and early signals. It signaled a SELL in late February, while the "market" continued slightly higher into April, but then collapsed into the June low, where it caught the next bull move right away, after that little whip saw at the eventual May high. There's nothing wrong with all the whip saws in the red box, for, IF YOU REMEMBER, the markets were an absolute piece of junk during that period. One notable concern of course is the HUGE divergence we got at the October high, where it made a much lower high than back in February. Any move higher tomorrow and it will "probably" make a new buy signal. 

A few bullshitish ideas, CIEN has an inverted head and shoulders and is "pointing" back to $18, same with EMR, plus it has a Cup and Handle off the $52 level, it targets "about" $61. HGG is dicey, the gap down is not good of course, but the explosive move off the bottom, combined with the Air Pocket, "COULD", result in a move back to $10.50-12. VMC had a move up, rest, then an "equal move" up, and now another rest, plus you could make the case of this rest being a "handle" for a Cup and Handle pattern off the $48, and could have much higher to go, BUTT, personally, I don't like it at all, hahahhahhaha, sigh!

Not much in the way of shorts, CRL, "COULD", have a Diamond Top working, and FLXS has CLEAR AIR under $19 off a pretty clear H and S and a descending triangle. 

I would remind, MYSELF, that the "Stock Trader's Almanac" lists as their single best indicator for the start of the best six months of the year, November-April (into May), as a bullish cross of the MACD indicator, I have the Q's there but all the major indexes have it, with the exception of the transports, IYT, as the Dow Sell theory continues.
Naturally, I, HATE, "V" bottoms, sigh, I MUCH prefer to have a positive divergence on the indicators, which will happen IF we go back and "test" the $62 "area", or, even better, the June low, then if we move up with the positive divergence, then, Yea, it's for real. Of course, just by my saying what I "WANT", means their ain't a chance in hell it's gonna happen! "Our" last hope, "Our" meaning the bull's that are looking to buy a pull back, is that the rally Friday stopped right at the prior SUPPORT level from late October, which, IN THEORY, is now HUGE resistance, as support, once broken, becomes blah blah blah. That's the, "Theory", at least, any gap up tomorrow and that's probably the end of that, it pretty much opens the door for a quick move up to the next resistance level at $66.
Egypt is down almost 10% today, I'm not sure if it will have any real effect on other markets, as it's very Country specific, as they're being taken over again by another Dictator. GEEZE, what's with that place, they're getting ALMOST as bad as this country, where we've been taken over by those two DICTATORS called Republocrats and Demicans!


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